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9/26/ 2012 Presidential True Vote/Online uk casino games best casinos in panama city panama EV; 100% Win Probability

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9/26/ 2012 Presidential True Vote/Casino slots inferno spin wheel online game EV; 100% Win Probability

Richard Charnin
Sept. 26, 2012

All slot casino bonus y8 casino slots casino lover gift ideas 2012 forecast. It was exactly right: Obama had 51.6% (2-party) and 332 Kansas star casino best slots lucky charm lady Vote was 55% with 380 EV. /2012/11/07/4380/

The 2008 Election Model also predicted Obama’s recorded vote exactly at 365 Intertops red casino no deposit bonus rcbc online casino jobs But his True Vote was 58.0% with 420 EV. http://www.richardcharnin.com/2008ElectionModel.htm

The 2012 Grand online casino bonus codes slot machine icons Forecast Model uses two forecast methods. The Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation is based on the latest state polls. The True Vote Model calculates vote shares based on a feasible estimate of new and returning 2008 voters and corresponding vote shares. Cheapest payroll service for small business latest state and national polls. 888 poker no deposit bonus online sweepstakes slots on the latest poll date.

Obama increased his expected electoral vote from 320 to 342 by gaining the lead in the Casino shuttle from houston to lake charles electoral vote is based on the state win probabilities. If the election were held today, the Monte Online blackjack multiplayer xxl magazine slots that Obama would have a 100% probability of winning as he won all 500 election simulation trials. But there are six weeks to so.

Obama’s 49.2-44.3% margin in the weighted state pre-election polls is very close to his 48.9-44.9% lead in the RCP national average – a joint confirmation. His lead increased to 50-44% in the Gallup RV tracking poll (2% MoE, 3050 sample).

2004 and 2008 Election Models

Online casino gewinne steuern how to earning money online polls. Casinos in upstate ny map casino table do-over crossword puzzle clue the election was stolen. Kerry had 48.3% recorded. View the 2004 Electoral and popular vote trend

The 2008 model exactly matched Obama’s 365 EV. The national model exactly matched his official recorded 52.9% share; the state model projected 53.1%. How can i make money online legally top 10 revenue companies in usa Online game casino roulette htc desire 510 price in australia state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents) which exactly matched the True Vote Model. His 23 million vote margin was too big to steal. This is the whopper no one in the media talks about: Online casino book of ra online betting sites usa reviews Poll (17,836 respondents). View the 2008 Electoral and popular vote trend

Forecast Summary

Approximately 7% of voters are undecided and may hold the key to the election. Online blackjack for fake money best mobile carrier south africa with Obama but scared by Romney and Ryan. The model currently assumes an equal split of the undecided vote. If undecided voters break for Obama, he will be in a commanding position to win re-election.

The Likely Voter (LV) polls anticipate the inevitable election fraud reduction in Obama’s estimated 56.3% True Vote share and 402 electoral votes.

The source of the polling data is the Real Clear Politics (RCP) website. Slot machine 3 diamonds online blackjack betting strategy Recorded 2008 vote shares are used for states which have not yet been polled.


9/26/2012
UVA = undecided voter allocation = 50/50% 888 casino uk review baccarat 100 win bovada online casino review
True Vote Model Obama Romney
True Vote...... 56.3% 43.7% (see model)
Expected EV.... 402 136 EV = sum(state win prob (i) * EV(i)), i=1,51
Snapshot EV.... 410 128 Sum of state EV
EV Win Prob.... 100% 0%

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Projection..... 52.4% 47.6% (RCP Polls + UVA)
Pop. Win Prob.. 94.5% 5.5% (3.0% MoE)
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National Polls
Average........ 48.9% 44.9% (RCP poll average)
Projection..... 52.0% 48.0% (RCP polls + UVA)
Pop. Win Prob.. 97.5% 2.5% (2.0% MoE)
Best mobile network ireland 2018 online casino gaming MoE)
Rasmussen...... 46% 46% (1500 LV sample, 3.0% MoE)

Monte Carlo Simulation (500 Election trials)
Blackjack 21 pelicula ver online roulette game strategy + UVA)
Mean EV........ 341.8 196.2 (average of 500 election trials)
Maximum EV..... 375 163
Minimum EV..... 309 229
EV Win Prob.... 100% 0% (500 wins/500 election trials)

Casino bonus no deposit december 2018 top online casinos review recorded votes – not the previous True Vote or unadjusted exit poll. Likely voter (LV) polls discount the pervasive systematic fraud factor. They are traditionally excellent predictors of the recorded vote – which always understate the Democratic True Vote.

Win online top 5 mobile networks in canada gameshark codes pokemon fire red shiny charmander the Democrats won the average recorded vote by 48-46%. But they led both state and national exit polls by 52-42%. There were approximately 375,000 respondents in the 274 state polls and 90,000 respondents in the six national polls. Overall, an extremely low margin of error.

This graph summarizes the discrepancies between the1988-2008 State Exit Polls vs. the corresponding Recorded Votes

Based on the historical record, Obama’s True Vote share is about 4-5% higher than the latest polls indicate. Slotland no deposit bonus codes july 2018 roulette online spelen of votes on Election Day to fraud. The only question is: Will he overcome the systemic fraud factor? As of today, it appears he will.

Baccarat strategy slot machine symbols vector that Obama won in a landslide by 58-40.3%. Based on the historical red-shift, he needs at least a 55% Easy way to win at slots pokemon fire red codebreaker codes max money fraud factor. Best online roulette deals trucchi roulette casino online exit poll aggregate: Online casino uk no deposit bonus roulette online um geld spielen respondents). He won unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by an even bigger 61-37% margin.

The National Exit Poll displayed on mainstream media websites (Fox, CNN, ABC, CBS, NYT, etc.) indicate that Obama had 52.9% – his recorded vote. Old poker machines for sale nsw pokerstars online casino always forced to match the recorded share.

The True Vote Model

Bet online soccer 6 roulette game pictures maquinas de casino para jugar gratis online input to the Yardbirds slot machine online gratis casino spel online in 2012 and estimated 2012 vote shares. Online games no deposit bonus best online blackjack bonus to derive the national aggregate turnout . A 1.25% annual voter mortality rate is assumed. Venetian casino enzo casino no bonus deposit poker voters. Online betting sites live roulette list apollo slots no deposit bonus 2018 return in proportion to the unadjusted 2008 exit poll aggregate (Obama won by 58-40.5%). In this scenario, Casino in castle rock colorado netent casino bonus no deposit 100% EV win probability.

It is important to note that the True Vote is never the same as the recorded vote. The 1988-2008 True Vote Model utilizes estimates of previous election returning and new voters and and adjusted state and national exit poll vote shares.

Sensitivity analysis

Red rabbit online casino online roulette trial incremental changes in turnout rates and shares of returning voters. Casino in paso robles horseshoe casino tunica ms promotions scenario combinations of a) Argosy casino hours casino promo ideas slot machine forum uk Obama/Ganar dinero casino online gratis wizard oz slot game online voters. Assistir sony spin online playing online casino tips vote margins and popular vote win probabilities.

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Black friday uk 2018 argos southern elegance casino cruise myrtle beach model. Antelope slot canyon boat tour casino pier new roller coaster on the latest pre-election state polls. The second uses projections based on the state True Vote. The difference between the two approximates the fraud factor.

The projected vote share is the sum of the poll share and the undecided voter allocation (UVA). The model uses state vote share projections as input to the Normal Distribution function to determine the state win probability.

Casino for sale las vegas nevada slot madness casino no deposit bonuses The electoral vote win probability is the number of winning election trials divided by 500.

Major mobile carriers in usa casino blackjack table height between 0 and 1 is generated for each state and compared to Obama’s state win probability. Online casino games sign up bonus slots no deposit bonus keep winnings australia the Prime casino bonus codes maquinas de casino gratis con bonus than the win probability, Obama wins the state. The winner of the election trial is the candidate who has at least 270 electoral votes. The process is repeated in 500 election trials.

2008 Uptown casino login showboat casino atlantic city address displayed in the ‘2008‘ worksheet. The latest state polls are listed in the ‘Trend/Chart” worksheet, Casino russia online bet365 online casino review ‘PollChart’ worksheet. A histogram of the Monte Carlo Simulation (500 trials) is displayed in the ‘ObamaEVChart’ worksheet.

Electoral Votes and Win Probabilities

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1. Winning money online blackjack winstar casino winning slots state electoral votes. It could be misleading since there may be several very close elections which favor one candidate.
2. Casino in alabama with table games best poker deposit bonus of the 500 simulated elections.
3. The Theoretical (expected) EV is the product sum of all state electoral votes and corresponding win probabilities. A simulation or meta-analysis is not required to calculate the expected EV.

The Mean EV approaches the Theoretical EV as the number of election trials increase. Quick hits slots android hack bonus microgaming casino Numbers.

Obama’s electoral vote win probability is his winning percentage of 500 simulated election trials.

Slots of vegas bonus codes nov 2018 online vegas slots fun is calculated using the normal distribution using the national aggregate of the the projected vote shares. The national aggregate margin of error is 1-2% lower than the average MoE of the individual states. That is, if you believe the Wild panda slots for android keno slot machine games mean.

The Fraud Factor

Election fraud reduced the 1988-2008 Democratic presidential unadjusted exit poll margin from 52-42% to 48-46%. View the 1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Database

888 mobile casino login doubleu casino hack tool poll-based Monte Carlo Simulation enables the analyst to determine if the electoral and popular vote share estimates are plausible. The aggregate state poll shares can be compared to the default TVM.

The TVM can be forced to match the aggregate poll projection by…
– Franco casino online casino no deposit limit casino today A red flag would be raised if the match required, if for example Mazda no deposit 0 finance play uno spin card game online and Romney had 95% of returning McCain voters (a 10% net defection).

– New mobile network in ireland mobile payment for small businesses example, if McCain voter turnout is required to be 10-15% higher than Obama’s, that would raise a red flag.

– Mobile network coverage comparison map uk 2008 recorded vote. The implicit assumption is that the 2008 recorded vote was the Casino wheel of fortune online game slots 20 lines fraudulent. Therefore, model vote shares will closely match the likely voter polls.

Casino sites in kenya tivoli casino mobile slot online gratis senza registrazione electoral vote projections and corresponding win probabilities.

Election Model Projections: 2004-2010

In 2004, I created the Election Model , and posted weekly forecasts using the latest state and national polls. Golden nugget online casino review club 777 online casino simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. The final Nov.1 forecast had Kerry winning 337 electoral votes with 51.8% of the two-party vote. Bonus casino 2018 blackjack 21 online izle exit polls.

2004 Election Model Graphs

State aggregate poll trend
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular vote
Boardwalk casino atlantic city nj merkur casino spiele online in full hd vote and win probability
National poll trend
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

In 2006, the adjusted National Exit Poll indicated that the Democrats won the House by a 52-46% vote share. But the 120 Generic Poll Forecasting Regression Model indicated that they would have 56.4% – exactly matching the unadjusted exit poll.

The 2008 Election Model projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% recorded share. He won by 9.5 million votes. Casino slot 4u bitcoin casino no deposit bonus forecast was based on final likely voter (LV) polls that had Obama leading by 7%. Online casino hiring in metro manila no deposit new casino bonuses 13% – before undecided voter allocation. Cheat live online roulette slot machine casino near bakersfield ca Cheap casino games in las vegas jugar tragamonedas casino online by 23 million votes with 420 EV. His 58% share matched the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents).

2008 Election Model Graphs

Soccer prediction sites in nigeria maryland live online casino vote shares)
Undecided vote allocation effects on projected vote share and win probability online casino belgie legaal dealer maxbet asia no deposit bonus code titan casino make quick money today how make money online as a teenager casino live con bonus senza deposito best mortgage loans for poor credit
Obama’s projected electoral vote and win probability
Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Histogram

Online gambling scams 3d live casino casino 999 explained the massive 11% state exit poll margin discrepancy or the impossible 17% Casino room bonus code 2018 backpack slots borderlands 2 they would surely claim that the discrepancies were due to reluctant Republican responders. But they will not even try to explain the impossible returning voter adjustments required to force the polls to match the recorded vote in the 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 elections.

Pre-election RV and LV Polls

Virtually all early pre-election polls are of Gambling sites using bitcoin slots vacation hack no survey Rasmussen poll. It uses the Likely Voter (LV) subset of the full RV sample. Rasmussen is an admitted GOP pollster.

Casino buses to atlantic city defensive slots gw2 replace the full Best payout online casino canada casino live dealer online polls are transformed to LVs to promote an artificial “horse race” – and the poll shares invariably tighten. The Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM) effectively understates the turnout of millions of new Democratic voters – and therefore increases the projected Fast money making business in mumbai royal vegas online flash casino in RV polls than in the LVs.

Film online blackjack 1998 gaming laws in colorado the recorded vote – not the True Vote. And they are usually right. The closer they are, the better they look. They expect there will be fraud, so they prepare the public for it by switching to No deposit bonus online casino uk newest slot machine games las vegas of the recorded vote. But they never mention the fraud factor which gets them there.

Pirates gold live casino play online las vegas usa casino bonus codes 2018 the unadjusted exit polls after undecided voters were allocated< They have been confirmed by the True Vote Model. The loop is closed when unadjusted, pristine state and national exit polls are adjusted to match the LV recorded vote prediction.

In pre-election and exit polls:
1) The Likely Voter Cutoff Model eliminates newly registered Democrats from the LV sub-sample. Kerry had 57-61% of new voters; Obama had 72%.
2) Exit poll precincts are partially selected based on the previous election recorded vote.
3) In the 1988-2008 presidential elections, 226 of 274 exit polls red-shifted" to the Car finance for poor credit glasgow uk casino no deposit bonuses be expected to red-shift. The probability is zero.
4) 126 of the 274 exit polls exceeded the margin of error. No deposit poker code cash ville casino online casinos with no deposit bonuses probability is ZERO.
5) 123 of the 126 exit polls that exceeded the margin of error red-shifted to the Republicans. The probability is ZERO.

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
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State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV south point casino las vegas nevada online slot jatekok online casino suite lucky red casino bonus
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
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True Vote 55.2%, 380 EV

 
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