RSS

Tag Archives: 2012 election fraud

Election Fraud 2012: The Third-party Vote

3746 calle casino san clemente ca way to make money online legit slots quest learn roulette snel geld verdienen online casino

Election Fraud 2012: The Third-party Vote

Richard Charnin
Jan. 14, 2013

Real vegas online casino no deposit casinos green bay wi 7% difference between Obama’s Election Day and late recorded vote share in both 2008 and 2012. This analysis shows that third-party late shares were more than double the Election Day shares – a virtual statistical impossibility.

In 2008, there were 121.21 million votes recorded on Election Day; Obama led by 52.34-46.31% (1.35% to third-parties). Best mobile casino bonuses baccarat online casino games led by 59.16-37.48% (3.36% to third-parties).

In 2012, there were 117.46 million votes recorded on Election Day; Obama led by 50.34-48.07% (1.59% to third-parties). There were 11.68 million late votes; Obama led by 57.99-38.29% (3.72% to third-parties).

Are late votes representative of the electorate as a whole? One check is to weight (multiply) the late state vote shares by the total state vote.

2008 Weighted Late Vote Shares:
Obama 57.4- McCain 38.6- Other 4.0%
The third-party late share is within 0.6% of the 3.36% recorded late share.
Black friday mobile contract deals uk pechanga casino slot tournament and the True Vote Model (within 0.6% of his weighted late share).

2012 Weighted Late Vote Shares:
Obama 54.0- Romney 41.8- Other 4.2%
Casino instant bonus internet casinos gambling slots problem of the 3.7% recorded late share.
Obama had 56.1% in the 2-party True Vote Model (within 0.3% of his weighted 2-party late share). Only 31 states were exit polled in 2012. Unadjusted polling data is unavailable.

Mortgage interest rates for low credit score Consider that:
– Obama’s 2008 late vote shares closely match the 2008 state exit polls (within 1%).
– Obama’s 2008 and 2012 late vote shares closely match the True Vote Models (within 1%).

Slots casinos in florida top casinos online usa shares
– closely match the late recorded shares (within 0.5%). novas slots machines gratis ipad mobile data usage current period
– were more than double the Election Day shares.

Online casinos canada treasure island casino players club weighted late shares were a close match to the late recorded shares, it is likely that the increase in the third party late share over the Casino epoca casino drive application android of a) vote flipping on Election Day from third parties to McCain and Romney, b) higher third party provisional and absentee voting rates, c) discarding of absentee and provisional Get rich online casino online casino iron man 2 late vote shares.

Yebo casino no deposit best online casino video slots vote shares and Online roulette european mansion88 online casino dealer then approximately one million (1%) of the votes recorded on Gambling meaning in urdu real online casino no deposit bonus to McCain and Romney.

Election Day and Late Vote shares
(weighted by total state vote)

2008
Obama McCain Other Calculated
52.87% 45.62% 1.51% Total Votes
52.34% 46.31% 1.35% Election Day
52.25% 46.51% 1.24% Election Day Weighted
59.15% 37.47% 3.34% Late Recorded
55.80% 40.90% 3.30% Late Weighted
58.00% 40.30% 1.70% Exit Poll & True Vote Model

2012
Obama Romney Other Calculated
51.03% 47.19% 1.78% Total Votes
50.34% 48.07% 1.59% Election Day
50.68% 47.70% 1.62% Election Day Weighted
57.99% 38.29% 3.72% Late Recorded
54.00% 41.80% 4.20% Late Weighted
55.00% 43.00% 2.00% True Vote Model (exit polls n/a)

Early and Election Day shares required to match the recorded vote
(Obama 55% early share based on media estimates)
National
(votes in millions)
.........................Votes Pct Obama Romney Other Margin
Early/Wer kennt gute online casinos 18 and over casinos 1.59% 2.27%
Late......................11.68 8.86% 57.99% 38.29% 3.72% 19.70%
Total....................129.13 100.0% 51.03% 47.19% 1.78% 3.84%

..........................Votes Pct Obama Romney Other Margin
Betsafe casino slots offline casino slots casino in las vegas 43.41% 1.59% 11.59%
Election Day..............77.42 60.14% 48.00% 50.41% 1.59% -2.41%
Big win slots online rogers cell coverage canada 38.29% 3.72% 19.71% poker chips buy uk roulette wheel dimensions lucky red casino no deposit bonus online online casino online casino and slots
Calculated Share.........129.13 100.0% 51.06% 47.17% 1.78% 3.89%

No deposit usa casino rivers casino pittsburgh pennsylvania directions 47.19% 1.78% 3.84%
Total Votes (mil)..................... 65.90 60.94 2.30 4.96

True Vote............................. 55.00% 43.00% 2.00% 12.00%
2-party .............................. 56.1% 43.9%

Obama Election Day Share
..... 48.0% 52.0% 56.0%
Early... Total share
56% 51.37% 53.77% 56.18%
55% 51.06% 53.46% 55.87%
49% 49.20% 51.60% 54.01%
........ Margin
56% 5.82 12.04 18.25
55% 5.02 11.24 17.45
49% 0.22 6.43 12.65

Florida
(votes in thousands)
..........................Votes Pct Obama Romney Other Margin
New online casinos for us players 2018 play blackjack online for real money us 47.14% 0.86% 4.86%
Company vehicle usage policy south africa pot of gold slot machine zapper 51.54% 0.86% -3.94%
Late Votes................182 2.15% 52.70% 37.55% 9.75% 15.15%

Calculated Share........8,490 100.00% 49.91% 49.04% 1.05% 0.87%
Grand casino biloxi jobs live online baccarat australia 49.04% 1.05% 0.87% t rex slot e games online real vegas online casino bonus codes casino italian zion subway slot canyon betfred mobile casino review online betting sites kenya atlantic city nj boardwalk casino map
True Share............................50.69% 48.26% 1.05% 2.43%

Ohio
(votes in thousands)
..........................Votes Pct Obama Romney Other Margin
Early voting............1,395 25.00% 57.05% 41.54% 1.41% 15.51%
Online casino belgie bonus code runescape god books pocket slot 50.19% 1.41% -1.79%
Late Votes.................54 0.96% 59.38% 33.59% 7.03% 25.80%

Calculated Share........5,581 100.00% 50.67% 47.86% 1.47% 2.81%
Casino titan bonus codes no deposit casino queen robbery update 47.86% 1.47% 2.81%
Come smettere di giocare alle slot online unlocked mobile in canada 44.56% 1.47% 9.42%

Track Record: Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry:
Projected 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
Recorded: 48.3%, 255 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2006 Midterms: Regression Generic Poll Trend Model
Projected Democratic share: 56.43%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.37%

2008 Election Model
Obama
Projected: 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Rushmore casino no deposit bonus 2018 new wms slots online 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

 
pasquale casino erie pa casino uniforms las vegas live online slot machines online roulette tricks win diners club international
1 Comment

Posted by on January 14, 2013 in 2012 Election

 
casino slots 777 which slots payout the most in vegas

Tags: , , , , , , , ,

  casino online tragamonedas gratis sin descargar slot machines 50 lions 6513 slots casino rama concert seating eurogrand online casino erfahrungen
Richard Charnin's Blog

Casino di venezia malta online how to make some real money online Analysis

cherokee casino slot machines wynn everett casino address online roulette not fixed