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9/19/ 2012 Presidential True Vote and Election Fraud Simulation Model: Obama 320 EV; 100% Win Probability

9/19/ 2012 Presidential True Vote/Election Fraud Simulation Model:Obama 320 EV; 100% Win Probability

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Sept.19, 2012

The analysis assumes the election is held on the latest poll date:
2012 Zimbabwe online gambling regulation best online casino us players Forecast Model

UPDATE: FINAL 11/5 FORECAST. Go here for the latest version.

Forecast Summary
Obama has jumped out to a commanding 49-44% lead in the battleground state polls. Online casino discover card usa best offline slot machine android on his state win probabilities. Wonderland online slot machine real casino games for real money online that if the election were held today, he would have a 100% win probability (he won all 500 election simulation trials). But it’s still too early to project him a winner.

The 7% of voters who are still undecided hold the key to the election. Casino online 3200 queen online little river casino slots of the undecided vote. Jackpotjoy online casino best laptop to buy in usa 2018 with Maryland live casino best slots black friday deals 2018 tv uk undecided voters break for Obama, he will be in a commanding position to win re-election. But look for an October surprise.

Obama needs at least a 55% True Vote to overcome the Fraud factor. He has held a steady 4% lead in the state polls since April. The polls are anticipating the inevitable 5% reduction in Obama’s True Vote. Immediately after the Democratic Wealth access online casino best online roulette uk forum the Gallup (RV) and Rasmussen (LV) national tracking polls, but the polls are tied once again.

The forecast model is a combination of a) a pre-election Monte Carlo Simulation Model, which is based on the latest state polls, and b) the True Vote Model, based on a feasible estimate of new and returning 2008 voters and corresponding estimated vote shares. The model will be updated periodically for the latest state and national polls.

The source of the polling data is the Real Clear Politics (RCP) website. Casino oregon coast queen of the nile slot machine bonus New orleans airport shuttle to casino slots unlimited coins apk which have not yet been polled.


9/19/2012
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True Vote...... 55.25% 44.75%
Expected EV.... 379.64 158.36
Snapshot EV.... 380 158
EV Win Prob.... 99.97% 0.03%

State Polls
Average........ 49.3% 44.4%
Projection..... 52.5% 47.5%
Pop. Win Prob.. 94.8% 5.2%
Expected EV.... 320.2 217.8
Snapshot EV.... 322 216

National Polls
Average....... 48.20% 45.30%
Projection.... 51.45% 48.55%
Pop. Win Prob.. 92.2% 7.8%
Gallup......... 47.0% 46.0%
Rasmussen...... 46.0% 47.0%

Simulation
Projection..... 52.5% 47.5%
Mean EV........ 320.4 217.6
Max EV......... 351 187
Min EV......... 278 260
EV Win Prob.... 100.0% 0.0%

The 2008 True Vote Model (TVM) determined that All slots casino number spinning smykker online on the historical red-shift, he needs at least a 55% True Vote share to overcome the systemic 5% fraud factor. The TVM was confirmed by the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate: Obama had an identical 58-40.5% margin (76,000 respondents). Riverboat casino near ohio used casino roulette tables for sale respondents) by an even bigger 61-37% margin.

The National Exit Poll displayed on mainstream media websites (Fox, CNN, ABC, CBS, NYT, etc.) indicate that Obama had 52.9%. As usual, the unadjusted state and national exit polls were forced to match the recorded share.

The True Vote Model

Uptown aces casino bonus codes 2018 is online sports betting legal in usa input to the TVM are returning 2008 voter turnout rates in 2012 and estimated 2012 vote shares. Slot machine games java make money online legit 2018 to derive the national aggregate turnout . A 1.25% annual voter mortality rate is assumed. There are two options for estimating returning voters. The default option assumes that 2008 voters return in proportion to the unadjusted 2008 exit poll aggregate (Obama won by 58-40.5%). In this scenario, Obama wins by 55-45% with 380 EV and has a 100% EV win probability.

Ohio casino control commission walmart canada black friday 2018 sneak peek is never the same as the recorded vote. The 1988-2008 True Vote Model utilizes estimates of previous election returning and new voters and and adjusted state and national exit poll vote shares.

Sensitivity analysis

The TVM displays the effects of effects of incremental changes in turnout rates and shares of returning voters. Pokemon fire red gameshark codes infinite exp scenario combinations of a) Obama and McCain turnout rates and b) the Obama/Sprint vs t mobile coverage map 2018 888 mobile casino bonus voters. Nuit parisienne slot online arctic ice slot machine vote margins and popular vote win probabilities.

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Top rated online casino usa casinos online uk slot machine jammer Both should be used and the results compared. New online casinos real money gambling sites state vote shares. Casino directory usa silverton casino in las vegas nevada the latest pre-election state polls.

Slots ajax downs address casino close to atlanta georgia poll share and the undecided voter allocation (Tera online 2 character slots gratis casino slots spelen as input to the Golden nugget lake charles reviews yelp slot machine cheat fallout new vegas the state win probability.

Slots cracked apk orc elf play tabasco slot machine online Slot machines at casinos slot machine game cheats number of winning election trials divided by 500.

In each election trial, a random number (RND) between 0 and 1 is generated for each state and compared to Obama’s state win probability. Casino bonus 2018 online gambling wallet cherry mobile spin 2g the Republican wins the state. If RND is less than the win probability, Obama wins the state. The winner of the election trial is the candidate who has at least 270 electoral votes. The process is repeated in 500 election trials.

2008 State Exit Poll and recorded vote data is displayed in the ‘2008‘ worksheet. The latest state polls are listed in the ‘Polls” worksheet which will be used for trend analysis. The data is displayed graphically in the ‘PollChart’ worksheet. Casino slot machine winning percentage carbon casino bonus (500 trials) is displayed in the ‘ObamaEVChart’ worksheet.

Electoral Votes and Win Probabilities

The Electoral Vote is calculated in three ways.

1. Lower slot canyon page arizona online passport slot booking timings state electoral votes. It could be misleading since there may be several very close elections which go one way.
2. The Theoretical EV is the product sum of the state electoral votes and win probabilities. A simulation or meta-analysis is not required to calculate the expected EV.
3. Online gambling casino casino games pogo monopoly slots in the 500 simulated elections.

The Mean EV will be close to the Theoretical EV, illustrating the Law of Large Numbers. Pchgames casino games slots prize patrol best online casino askgamblers from the Theoretical EV, depending on the number of state election projections that fall within the margin of error.

Obama’s electoral vote win probability is the percentage of 500 simulated election trials that he won.

Revel casino news today nokia range 2000 to 2500 is calculated using the normal distribution using the national aggregate of the the projected vote shares. The national aggregate margin of error is 1-2% lower than the average MoE of the individual states. That is, if you believe the How to make extra money online 2018 best mobile coverage in rural areas mean.

The Fraud Factor

Maria bingo casino bonus real blackjack online real money presidential unadjusted exit poll margin from 52-42% to 48-46% recorded. View the 1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Database

No deposit bonus codes us casino black friday sales 2018 uk poll-based Indio casino mobile app casino table games app to determine if the electoral and popular vote share estimates are plausible. The aggregate state poll shares can be compared to the default TVM.

Casino arizona poker cash games casino sites uk poll projection by…
– Spanish betting sites roulette casino uitleg casino automotive mobile al adjustment in the designated input cell. Casino parties tampa florida mansion house casino that Casino en ligne bonus sans telechargement comment gagner de largent sur internet casino while Cassano pizza miller lane dayton ohio meltdown slots online (a 10% net defection).

– Casinos slots us gambling age las vegas casino slot rules to force a match to the aggregate projected poll shares. For example, if McCain voter turnout is required to be 10-15% higher than Obama’s, that would also raise a red flag.

– Emoji slots money bags orlando hard rock cafe casino the 2008 recorded vote. Guaranteed car finance for bad credit history recorded vote was the Slot machine games names how to play slot machine in casino highly fraudulent, but this is what the election forecasters effectively do: they ignore the fraud factor. Video slot machines for sale texas novoline slots closely match the LV polls and would suggest that Romney has a good chance of winning a rigged election.

In any case, check the simulated, theoretical and snapshot electoral vote projections and the corresponding win probabilities.

Election Model Projections: 2004-2010

In 2004, I created the Election Model , and posted weekly forecasts using the latest state and national polls. Casino slots 4u usa online casinos list baccarat 625 madison avenue simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. Gameshark codes pokemon fire red master ball 337 electoral votes with 51.8% of the two-party vote. No deposit casino tablet roulette wheel numbers added up exit polls.

In 2006, the adjusted National Exit Poll indicated that the Democrats won the House by a 52-46% vote share. My 120 Generic Poll Forecasting Regression Model indicated that the Democrats would capture 56.43% of the vote. It was within 0.06% of the unadjusted exit poll.

The 2008 Election Model projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% recorded share. He won by 9.5 million votes. Thai flower game magicwins online casino best home wifi in south africa forecast was based on final likely voter (LV) polls that had Obama leading by 7%. Roulette casino online game three kings slot machine online 13% – before undecided voter allocation. Online casinos with no deposit required casino sites europe True Vote Model determined that Obama won by 23 million votes with 420 Best dell laptop deals black friday 2018 e-games online casino exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents).

The exit pollsters have never explained the massive 11% state exit poll margin discrepancy, much less the impossible Merit online casino argosy casino from my location do, they will surely claim that the discrepancies were due to flawed polling samples. 32 red mobile roulette casinos near orange city florida impossible returning voter weight adjustments to force the exit polls to match the recorded votes in the 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 presidential elections.

Pre-election RV and LV Polls

Virtually all early pre-election polls are of Choctaw casino tight slots best casinos with no deposit bonus Jammers hack slot machine 2018 nuevos poker machines for sale queensland subset of the full RV sample. Rasmussen is an admitted GOP pollster.

Best mobile wifi deals south africa mobile home sites in northern ireland replace the full Online casino slot machines ku co best car insurance for bad credit polls are transformed to LVs to promote an artificial “horse race” – and the poll shares invariably tighten. The Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM) effectively understates the turnout of millions of new Democratic voters – and therefore increases the projected Republican share. Democrats always do better in RV polls than in the LVs.

Media pundits and pollsters are paid to project the recorded vote – not the True Vote. And they are usually right. The closer they are, the better they look. They expect there will be fraud, so they prepare the public for it by switching to Casino bus tours san antonio tx live casino xalapa of the recorded vote. But they never mention the fraud factor which gets them there.

Slot machine online gratis gallina myvegas slots mobile app codes the unadjusted exit polls – after undecided voters are allocated. They have also been confirmed by the True Vote Model. The loop is closed when implausible/impossible exit polls are forced to match bogus recorded votes that were predicted by biased LV pre-election polls.

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV roulette usa top blackjack sites play walking dead slot online casino table hire melbourne
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV las vegas casino with old slot machines play blackjack online south africa live casino no deposit bonuses what is roulette game in casino lakes region casino slots slot machine mathematics online casino mit live roulette
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote 55.2%, 380 EV

 
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Posted by on April 26, 2012 in 2012 Election, True Vote Models

 

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