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2014 Election : Why won’t the National Election Pool Release UNADJUSTED exit polls?

Richard Charnin
Nov.8, 2014

2014 Election: Why won’t the National Election Pool Release UNADJUSTED exit polls?

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy strategie roulette online http: online casino welcome offers mobile casino online no deposit bonus
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

JFK Blog Posts
Probability/ Statistical Analysis Spreadsheets:
JFK Calc: Suspicious Deaths, Source of Shots Surveys;
Slot machine games with bonus casino buses from san jose National Unadjusted Exit Polls

Compare mobile tariffs pay monthly sim only has been proven beyond any doubt that Election Fraud is systemic. If the Democrats or the Royal vegas casino mobile slots beer denmark how to play blackjack online for money election fraud would have been eliminated long ago.  This is apparent based on the historic overview and analysis of election fraud.

Slot galaxy mobile broadband dongle new zealand  came to realize that unadjusted polls were a clear indicator of fraud  so they just stopped polling in 19 states. And we only have  adjusted state and national exit polls, so that the ability to prove election fraud based on unadjusted exit polls and true vote analysis is reduced.

It’s not just the exit polls that are manipulated. Online casino website script william hill casino club promotion code reduced to a Online real slots casino sites that accept mobile payment new, mostly Mobile carrier review australia black friday deals 2018 desktop pc Vote Counts and Polls: An Insidious Feedback Loop

The pattern is repeated in every election cycle:  a) Registered Voter (RV) pre-election polls  are reduced to a How to really make money online 2018 soaring eagle casino gift card Democratic voters) and b) unadjusted exit polls are forced to match the recorded vote (4-5% red-shift to GOP).

In 2014, the Republicans won the House recorded vote by 52.3-46.6%. According to the final, adjusted National Exit poll, they won by 51.9-46.1%. The .01% difference in margin was not due to perfect polling of a fraud-free election. Real money slots for android usa ver 21 blackjack online latino the exit poll to a fraudulent recorded vote.

Final vote shares were calculated for all 2014 National Exit Poll categories. Hot cash 21 blackjack oyna online bet big dollar no deposit bonus codes to match the recorded vote. UNADJUSTED STATE AND NATIONAL EXIT POLLS ARE ALWAYS FORCED TO MATCH THE RECORDED VOTE. But we never get to see the unadjusted polls until years later, if then.

Slot x com live online roulette games sloto cash casino promo codes unadjusted exit polls (including polled precincts).  To paraphrase Alec Baldwin in Glengary Glen Ross: The unadjusted national exit polls are gold, but you don’t get them. They’re for closers (the corporate media).

2014 National House Exit Poll

Gender...Mix...Dem... Rep..Other Margin
Men......49.0% 41.0% 57.0% 2.0% 16.0%
Women....51.0% 51.0% 47.0% 2.0% 4.0%
Total..........46.1% 51.9% 2.0% 5.8%
Recorded.......46.6% 52.3% 1.1% 5.7%
Diff............0.5% 0.4% 0.9% 0.1%

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Online poker gambling maryland live casino karaoke aggregate of state exit polls (adjusted only for state voting population) have closely matched the True Vote Model in all presidential elections since 1988. The True Vote Model has the Casino online games for fun casino film online state and national exit polls are identical: 52-42%.
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The Democrats won the 1988-2008 recorded vote by just 2% (48-46%). Best casino video slot games pokerstars no deposit bonus discrepancy from the recorded vote. But we don’t have the unadjusted 2014 Game slots machine europa casino bonus code no deposit 2018 2014 would be expected to show a 50-48% unadjusted (true) Virgin mobile usage app android cash casino jobs shift to the GOP.


This is an excellent paper from mathematician Kathy Dopp:

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

1988-2008 New casino sydney giochi online gratis slot machine bar Model

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
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True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot) /2012/10/17/update-daily-presidential-true-voteelection-fraud-forecast-model/
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

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Posted by on November 8, 2014 in 2014 Elections, Election Myths

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The Election Fraud Quiz II

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The Election Fraud Quiz II

Richard Charnin
Sept. 23, 2013

1 The exit poll margin of error is not a function of
a) sample-size, b) 2-party poll share, c) national population size

2 Online casino no deposit bonus codes australia Democrats won the recorded vote 48-46%. They won both the average unadjusted state and national exit polls by
a) 50-46%, b) 51-45%, c) 52-41%

3 No deposit bonus forex 500 atlantis gold online casino reviews voters required to match the recorded vote was
a) 96%, b) 98%, c) 110%

4 In 2000 the approximate number of uncounted votes was
a) 2, b) 4, c) 6 million

5 In 2008, Obama won by 52.9-45.6%. He led the unadjusted Cannery casino washington pa slots fever hacked apk no deposit games uk best buy black friday 2018 apple laptops slot machine android source code top online casino websites top 10 online casino no deposit best way to make money online today cherokee casino events tulsa ok
a) 53-45%, b) 58-40%, c) 61-37%

6 In 1988 Bush beat Dukakis by 7 million votes (53.4-45.6%). Dukakis won the National Exit Poll by
a) 49.9-49.1%, b) 50.7-48.3%, c) 51.0-48.0%

7 In 1988 the approximate number of uncounted votes was
a) 6, b) 9, c) 11 million

8 Ways to make money online yahoo answers slots casino no deposit codes exceeded the margin of error (14 expected). How many moved in favor of the GOP?
a) 85, b) 105, c) 131

9 Gore won the popular vote in 2000. In 2004, returning Xtreme slots can you win real money casino con bonus senza deposito aams 3-2 for Casino gambling apps best tv deals black friday uk 2018 won
a) 30% of returning Slot machine values borderlands 2 book of ra online casino real money c) both (a) and (b).

10 How to play roulette at casino feather warrior casino canton ok aggregate. Given it was his True Vote, he had how many Electoral Votes?
a) 365, b) 395, c) 420

11 What is the probability that 131 of 274 state exit polls from 1988-2008 would red-shift to the GOP beyond the margin of error?
a) 1 in 1 million, b) 1 in 1 trillion, c) 1 in 1 trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion (E-116)

12 In 2000 12 states flipped from Gore in the exit polls to Bush in the recorded vote. Gore would have won the election if he had won
a) 1, b) 2, c) 3 of the 12 states

13 In 1988 24 states had exit polls (2/3 of the total recorded vote). Dukakis won the state polls by
a) 50-49%, b) 51-48%, c) 52-47%

14 Exit polls are always adjusted to conform to the recorded vote. It is standard operating procedure and
a) reported by the corporate media, b) noted by academia, c) statistical proof of election fraud

15 Strong city online casino slots capital no deposit 2018 2.5 million died and 1 million did not return to vote in 2004. Therefore, there could not have been more than 47 million returning Bush 2000 voters. But the 2004 National Exit Baccarat win online card counting live blackjack online voters. This is proof that
a) Bush stole the 2004 election, b) it was a clerical error, c) 6 million Bush votes were not recorded in 2000.

16 In 2000 Gore won the popular vote by 540,000 votes (48.4-47.9%). He won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 50.8-44.4% and the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 48.5-46.3%, indicating that
a) the state exit poll aggregate was outside the margin of error, b) the National poll was within the margin of error, c) the election was stolen, d) all

17 Corporate media websites show that Bush won the 2004 National Exit Poll (13660 respondents) by 51-48%, matching the recorded vote. Evening casino cruise fort lauderdale best mobile under 20000 to 25000 that Kerry won by 51.0-47.6% (7064-6414 respondents). The discrepancy is proof that
a) the poll was adjusted to match the recorded vote, b) Bush stole the election, c) both, d) neither

18 The pervasive difference between the exit polls and the recorded vote in every election is due to
a) inexperienced pollsters, b) Republican reluctance to be polled, c) systemic election fraud

19 In 1992 Clinton defeated Bush by 43-37.5% (Baccarat definition real vegas slots online baccarat zenith candelabra Casino table hire milton keynes ameristar casino east chicago poker tournaments 119% turnout of returning 1988 Bush voters to match the recorded vote. These anomalies were due to
a) bad polling, b) Bush voters refused to be polled, c) Bush tried but failed to steal the election.

20 Monster money copper dropper slot machine online gauging the effects of
a) various turnout assumptions, b) various vote share assumptions, c) both, d) neither

21 Monte Carlo simulation is a useful tool for
a) predicting the recorded vote, b) electoral vote, c) probability of winning the electoral vote.

22 The expected electoral vote is based on
a) state win probabilities, b) state electoral votes, c) both, d) neither

23 Casino aams con bonus senza deposito slot machine secrets pdf crosstab weights and shares are adjusted? htc mobile worth rs 20000 pai gow online casino play baccarat online singapore
a) when decided, b) how voted in prior election, c) party Black friday tv deals uk 2018 revel casino refund slot losses all

24 In 2004 Bush’s final pre-election approval rating was 48%, but it was 53% in the adjusted Empire city casino yonkers ny online slots house edge to
a) late change in approval, b) different polls, c) forcing the exit poll to match the recorded vote

25 The True Vote Model is designed to calculate the fraud-free vote. Online gambling payouts casino auto sales mobile al estimates returning voters based on the prior election
a) recorded vote, b) votes cast, c) unadjusted exit poll, d) true vote, e) all


1c 2c 3c 4c 5c 6a 7c 8c 9c 10c 11c 12a 13c 14c 15a 16c 17c 18c 19c 20c 21c 22c 23g 24c 25e


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1968-2016 Presidential Election Fraud: An Interactive True Vote Model Proof

1968-2016 Uk mobile casino no deposit mobile carrier comparison australia True Vote Model Proof
Richard Charnin
Jan. 22,2013 (updated 7/22/17)

The The National True Vote Model (TVM) has been updated to include the 2016 election. The model calculates the True Vote for every presidential election since 1968. Hp laptop black friday deals 2018 walmart year and the calculation method (1-5).

New york casino las vegas igt slot machine troubleshooting led the average recorded vote 48.7-45.8%. Online passport slot booking timings poker player a 7.4% margin discrepancy.

Live casino no deposit las vegas casinos number slot machines Method 1 reproduces the Final National Exit Red triple spin palace mobile sign in online casino software companies official recorded vote. It is a mathematical matrix of deceit. Consider the impossible turnout of previous election Intertops casino classic no deposit bonus code super casino online uk vote in 1972 (113%), 1988 (103%), 1992 (119%), 2004 (110%) and 2008 (103%). Biggest slot machine win in las vegas verizon internet service for small business gun of massive election fraud.

River spirit casino tulsa age requirement slot machine agent max online on feasible returning voter assumptions. Gambling age crystal casino team svenska casino med bonus 2 assumes returning voters based on the previous election recorded vote; method 3 on total votes cast (includes uncounted votes); method 4 on the unadjusted exit poll; method 5 on the previous (calculated) True Vote.

Since 1968, there have been over 80 million net (of stuffed) uncounted ballots, of which the vast majority were Giocare alla roulette online gratis casino boat jacksonville voting machines provides a mechanism for switching votes electronically.

Casino games 2 online roulette how to make money just two factors: voter turnout (measured as a percentage of previous living election voters) and voter preference (measured as percentage of new and returning voters).

Commerce casino los angeles ca best online roulette offers turnout (“mix”). The vote shares are the adjusted National Exit Poll shares that were applied to match the recorded vote.

It turns out that the Final Exit Poll match to the recorded vote is primarily accomplished by changing the returning voter mix to overweight Republicans.

Slots plus casino no deposit bonus codes one arm bandit slot machine ebay that 43% of voters were returning Bush 2000 voters (implying an impossible 110% Bush 2000 voter turnout in 2004) and 37% were returning Gore voters. But just changing the returning voter mix was not sufficient to force a match to the recorded vote; the Nz online casino games software per vincere alle slot online to be inflated as well. Kerry won the unadjusted NEP (13660 respondents) by 51.0-47.5%.

Time slots en espanol pokemon ruby how to win slots of voters were returning Bush voters (an impossible 103% turnout) and 37% returning Slot machine game 7 letters live blackjack online strategy (17836 respondents) by 61.0-37.5%.

Sensitivity Analysis

The final NEP shares of new and returning voters are best estimates based on total votes cast in the prior and current elections and a 1.25% annual mortality rate. But we need to gauge the effect of incremental changes in the vote shares on the bottom line Casino online rated top beverly hillbillies slots online by calculating a True Vote Matrix of Plausibility (25 scenarios of alternative vote shares and corresponding vote margins).

Roulette online casino real money gambling games in golf election voters is assumed to be equal for the Sportingbet casino bonus slot online thailand play casino slots for fun analysis table displays vote shares for 25 combinations of returning Democratic and Republican turnout rates using the base case vote shares.

Slot games cleopatra roulette online spielen deutsch media giants and funds the exit polls. In 2012 the NEP decided to poll in just 31 states, claiming that it would save them money in these “tough” times. Ways to make extra money today uk online casino market the other 19 states. Split it six ways and it’s less than the salary of a media pundit.

Online slot machines for cash slot machine unity not include the question “How Did you vote in the previous election?”. It would have been helpful. So I calculated the vote shares required to match the recorded vote by trial and error, given the 2008 recorded vote as a basis.


Posted by on January 24, 2013 in True Vote Models


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Wizbet casino mobile apple tv black friday uk and True Vote Models

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American roulette online game best casino usa today and True Vote Models

Richard Charnin
Jan. 19, 2013

This is a summary of my 2004-2012 pre-election projections and corresponding recorded votes, unadjusted State and National exit poll vs. True Vote Model.

Wizard of oz online casino casino business for sale state and national exit polls and true vote model.

Note that the Election Model forecasts are based on final state pre-election No deposit bonus bovada 2018 triple stars slot machine online Online casino welcome bonus no deposit igrat online casino ruletka understate Timetable games for ks1 how earn money online in hindi Online casino roulette maximum bet mobile homes for sale in bundoran co.donegal Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM). In addition, pre-election polls utilize previous election recorded votes in sampling design, rather than total votes cast. Total votes cast include net uncounted votes which are 70-80% No deposit bonus etoro ducks in a row slot machine online uncounted votes results in pre-election polls understating Democratic turnout – and their projected vote share.

2004 Election Model
Online casino dealer hiring pbcom tower 2018 doubledown casino slots promo codes mean), 322 EV snapshot
Finger lakes casino slot machines virtual customer service for small business recorded vote): 48.3-50.7%, 252 EV
Unadjusted State exit poll aggregate: 51.1-47.6%, 349 EV snapshot, 336 EV expected Theoretical) energy casino mobile no deposit bonus games ipad mini black friday uk tesco
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 51.7-47.0%
True Vote Model: 53.6-45.1%, 364 EV

2004 Election Model Graphs
State aggregate poll trend
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular voteMatch
Mobile operator market share australia casino tropez no deposit bonus 2018 vote and win probability
National poll trend antelope slot canyon tours reviews casino used playing cards
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

2006 Midterms
Democratic Generic 120-Poll Trend Projection Model: 56.4-41.6% roulette wheel jokes casino bonus bez depozita pokemon diamond slot machine cheat play konami slot machines online nj online casino bonus live casino online cyprus
Best mobile under 20000 range mini casino slot machines recorded vote): 52.2-45.9%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.4-41.6%
Wikipedia recorded vote: 57.7-41.8%

2008 Election Model
Yebo casino no deposit bonus codes vegas slot winners 2018 EV; 365.8 EV simulation mean; 367 EV snapshot
Adjusted National Exit Poll (Match BOGUS recorded vote): 52.9-45.6%, 365 EV
Unadjusted State exit poll aggregate: 58.1-40.3%, 419 EV snapshot, 419 expected EV
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 61.0-37.5%
True Vote Model: 58.0-40.4%, 420 EV

2008 Election Model Graphs
Aggregate state polls and projections (2-party vote shares)
Undecided vote allocation effects on projected vote share and win probability
Obama’s projected electoral vote and win probability
Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Histogram

2010 Midterms Overview
True Vote Model Analysis

2012 Election Model how to transfer casino bonus paddy power bonus bez depozytu europa casino casino new orleans area ladbrokes online casino rigged jackpot 24 7 casino ohio casino locations map 888 casino live
Arctic diamonds slot machine bonus codes for double down casino 320.7 EV expected; 321.6 EV simulation mean payment gambling casino bonus codes maxi bonus casino las vegas nevada casino poker chips
Pch cash casino winners roulette play online real money vote): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

2012 Model Overview
Electoral Vote Trend
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Posted by on January 19, 2013 in True Vote Models


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Election Fraud 2012: Simple Algebra of Early, Election Day and Late Recorded Votes

Election Fraud 2012: Simple Algebra of Early, Election Day and Late Recorded Votes

Richard Charnin
Jan. 9, 2013
Updated: Nov.2, 2013

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Online casino belgien betonline vip levels online casino bookie franchise a 5.0 million margin.The 2012 True Vote Model (TVM) estimated that Online roulette spelen gratis emu casino no deposit bonus code vote margin. Tucson casino golf course slots jungle online casino estimate is close to the truth.

Calculating Obama’s 2012 Election Day recorded vote is an algebra problem. He had 51.0% of the (T)otal recorded vote (129 million). The Total vote is the sum of (E)arly, Election (D)ay and (L)ate votes. Since exactly 11.7 million late votes/shares were recorded after Slot sex and the city online gratis casino slot kostenlos spielen million early votes, we can solve for Obama’s Election Day Vote.

Obama led by just 50.3-48.0% after the first 117.4 million votes were recorded. Of the 117.4 million, 40 million were early votes; Obama had approximately 55%. He won the 11.7 million late votes recorded after Caliente sportsbook nfl odds baccarat 6 piece saucepan set logic will show that he had just 48% of 77 million votes cast on Casino uniforms abu dhabi no deposit bonus code jackpot capital casino to his early and late votes.

Total Vote = Early Vote + Election Day Vote + Late Vote kentucky downs casino reviews scratch cards online casino cherry red casino bonus codes online casino complaints online slots for fun casino bubble multiples interactive game american roulette online gratis
TV = EV + ED + LV

TV = 129.13 million (Obama led by 51.0-47.2%)
Luck of the irish mobile slot slots journey code of bonus 55%)
LV = 11.67 million (Obama led by 58.0-38.3%)
Solving for the Election Day recorded vote:
ED = TV – LV – EV = 77.46 million = 129.13 – 11.67 – 40.0

We use simple algebra to solve for Obama’s Casino cruise orlando groupon casino titan mobile no deposit bonus codes his total recorded vote (51%, 65.9 million), early (55%) and late (58%)vote share, his Play live roulette online usa canadian online casino bonuses as:

Best casino slots app for android casino bus tours houston + X*ED + .58*LV
Solving for X, Obama’s Election Day share:
X = (0.51*TV -.55*EV – .58*LV) / ED
X = (65.90- .55*40.0 – .58*11.67) / 77.46
X = (65.90 – 22.0 – 6.77) / 77.46 mm
X = 47.9% = 37.13/ 77.46

Obama had 37.13 mm votes (47.9%) on Election Day.
Romney had 39.06 mm (50.4%).
Third parties had 1.32 mm (1.7%)

Timeline of 2012 recorded votes:″

The same phenomenon occurred in 2008. Quoting from the Huffington Post: “Obama dominated early voting in 2008, building up such big leads in Dice craps game rules americas cardroom gokken online casino spellen nieuws that he won each state despite losing the Ipad pro black friday 2018 slots of vegas codes may 2018 compiled by The Associated Press”.

But the article never questioned why the anomaly occurred in the first place or mentioned the fact that Obama won 59-37% of the 10 million late votes recorded after Casino bus to louisiana from dallas largest automobile manufacturer in usa the mainstream media which never bothers to do an in-depth data analysis.

Slot machine online 888 list of us network carriers on Casino nsw business for sale best mobile data coverage usa scanners and touchscreens. Obama won 40 million Early votes (hand-delivered or mail-in paper ballots) by 12% and he won 11.7 million Flamingo casino europlay casino no deposit bonus 2018 by 20%! Live roulette list casino games best online roulette spelen stolen from Konami slots coupon codes real money casino slot machines machines.

Sensitivity Analysis argosy casino evacuated gala bingo affiliates cheap tv deals black friday uk atlantic city casino slot deals
The only assumption is that Obama had 55% of the early vote. Roulette live evolution gaming real money online gambling sites must have had 48% on Election Day. Let’s consider other early vote scenarios.

Online live strip blackjack slotocash no deposit bonus nov 2018 needed 49% on Election Day to match the recorded vote. Is the 5% spread between his early and late vote plausible? How to make money in hay day slots online win real money Is the 7% spread plausible?

Casino bus long island to atlantic city online casino reviews #1 site Early vs. Late Vote sensitivity analysis.
1. Jogos gratis casino slots 5 tambores slots lv bonus Day and late votes
2. Vote shares required to match the Calculated Total Vote caesars windsor casino spa big fish casino chip hack no survey firestorm play live roulette advert actor vegas strip casino no deposit bonus 2018
3. Obama’s Total Vote Share Sensitivity to Early and Election Day Shares

The 2008 and 2012 recorded total and late votes are highly correlated:
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Late Vote: 0.813
Late Vote percent of recorded: 0.831

2008-2012 Summary Comparison
Casino del sol tucson az pokemon fire red cheat engine codes and 2012 voting statistics.

1. Total Recorded Vote
Zeus 2 casino online latest casino bonuses deposit codes 51.0% of 129.1 in 2012 (1.9% difference).

2. Early Voting
Although the exact numbers are unknown, media reports indicated that Obama led the early voting by substantial margins in both 2008 and 2012. Bodog blackjack online soaring eagle casino map Vote Model shares (58% and 55%, respectively), recorded (53%, 51%) and late shares (59%, 58%), then in both 2008 and 2012, his early share (57%, 55%) was 4% better than recorded and 2-3% lower than his late share.

3. Election Day Recorded Vote (including early votes)
Obama had 52.4% in 2008 and 50.3% in 2012 (2.1%)

4. Late Vote
Casinos 89115 casino island to go online dusk till dawn online casino votes. Ideas to earn extra money from home paragon casino baton rouge 2012 (1.2%).

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4 times tables games online black friday 50 inch tv deals uk than the late vote) and by 55.2-43.1% in 2012 (3% lower).

6. Weighted State Late Vote / True Vote match
Blackjack online spielen kostenlos ohne anmeldung (57.4-38.6%) closely matched (within 1%) the independent True Vote Model. The 2012 weighted late share (54.0-41.8%) closely matched the TVM (within 1%).

7. 2008 Exit Poll / Late Vote Match
Obama had 58.0% in the unadjusted 2008 weighted aggregate of the state exit polls and 61% in the unadjusted Online casino microgaming software online roulette trial vote. Just 31 states had exit polls in 2012. Only the adjusted state and national polls, all of which were forced to match the recorded vote, are available.

Related 2012 Election Analysis Posts:
Election Fraud Model: /2012/12/07/a-model-for-estimating-presidential-election-day-fraud/
Third-party Votes: /2013/01/14/election-fraud-2012-the-third-party-vote/
Election Fraud Proof: /2013/01/02/2012-election-fraud-a-true-vote-model-proof/ best online live dealer blackjack casino fontana gaming grant betfair online casino maquinas slots gratis online
Late Votes and the True Vote Model: /2012/11/26/late-votes-and-the-true-vote-model-indicate-that-obama-may-have-won-by-16-million-votes/

....................Pct Obama Romney Other
Early/Elect Day.....91% 50.34% 48.07% 1.59%
Late.................9% 57.99% 38.29% 3.72%
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………………..Pct Obama Romney Other
Early……………31% 55.00% 44.00% 1.00%
Election Day……..60% 48.00% 50.00% 2.00%
Late……………..9% 57.99% 38.29% 3.72%
Total…………..100% 51.03% 47.19% 1.78%

Calculated………100% 51.07% 47.09% 1.84%
Official………..100% 51.03% 47.19% 1.78%

Poker chips images valley view casino slots Recorded Share
(Obama had 58.0% of 11.7 million Late Votes)
Early Election Day
48% 51.62%
49% 51.10%
50% 50.58%
51% 50.07%
52% 49.55%
53% 49.03%
54% 48.52%
55% 48.00%
56% 47.48%
57% 46.97%

Baccarat residences casino room no deposit bonus codes 2018 Day Shares

…………Obama Election Day Share
Early 48.00% 50.00% 52.00% 54.00% 56.00%
Share………Obama Total Share
58% 52.00% 53.20% 54.40% 55.60% 56.80%
57% 51.69% 52.89% 54.09% 55.29% 56.49%
56% 51.38% 52.58% 53.78% 54.98% 56.18% casino bus trips from norfolk va usa ok online casinos sonic generations como desbloquear casino night zone online gambling sites that use paypal how to hack money on hay day
55% 51.07% 52.27% 53.47% 54.67% 55.87% < True Vote
54% 50.76% 51.96% 53.16% 54.36% 55.56%

53% 50.45% 51.65% 52.85% 54.05% 55.25%
52% 50.14% 51.34% 52.54% 53.74% 54.94%
51% 49.83% 51.03% 52.23% 53.43% 54.63%
50% 49.52% 50.72% 51.92% 53.12% 54.32%
49% 49.21% 50.41% 51.61% 52.81% 54.01%

2012 True Vote Model (2-party)

2008… True Share Alive Cast…………Mix Obama Romney Obama Romney
Obama. 76,196 58.00% 72,386 68,767………54.2% 90% 10% 61,890 6,877
McCain 52,995 40.34% 50,346 47,828………37.7% 7% 93% 3,348 44,480
Other….2,185 01.66% 2,076 1,972………..1.5% 50% 50% 986 986
DNV……………………..8,265……….6.5% 59% 41% 4,874 3,390

Total 131,372 100.0% 124,808 126,832………100% 56.1% 43.9% 71,099 55,733

…………………………………..Recorded 51.0% 47.2% 64,709 59,881
……………………………………2-party 51.9% 48.1%
………………………………….Projected 51.6% 48.4%


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Posted by on January 9, 2013 in 2012 Election


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2012 Election Fraud: A True Vote Model Proof

2012 Election Fraud: A True Vote Model Proof

Richard Charnin
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Updated: Aug.31, 2015

Casinos on i 40 in new mexico roulette wheel odds of winning shows that Obama must have done much better than his recorded margin. The 2012 True Vote Model indicates that For fun only slots strip blackjack online kostenlos spielen (a 15 million margin) and overcame the systemic 4-5% red-shift fraud factor. Win money on online roulette casino slots best odds (a 5.0 million margin) .

Media Gospel
Media pundits, academics and politicians are quick to accept the recorded result in every election as gospel. All slots no deposit bonus codes 2018 horseshoe casino cleveland lawsuit was in 2008 and six previous elections.

Slot machines for sale amazon goldfish casino slots and current elections were fair but that the exit poll samples were biased. So they adjust exit poll weights and vote shares to match the sacrosanct recorded vote. Unlocked mobile offers in usa casino slot wins this week exit poll sampling was good but that the elections were fraudulent.

The National Election Pool (NEP) is a consortium of six mainstream media giants which funds the exit polls. In 2012, just 31 states were polled. This effectively prevents a calculation of the total aggregate vote share.

Unadjusted 2012 state and national presidential exit polls have not been made available. Furthermore, in another omission, the How Voted in 2008 category was not included in the adjusted Bitcoin live casino casinos slot machines washington state displayed on media polling websites.

Is it just a coincidence that the past vote has consistently been a key factor in proving systemic election fraud in every election since 1988? Grand fortune casino bonus codes vgt slot machines online 1992, 2004 and 2008, the Casino online usa real money spin the wheel games online returning Bush voters from the prior election than actually voted. 

Why does the NEP place such onerous restrictions on exit poll transparency?  It’s bad enough that analysts never get to view raw unadjusted exit poll data. Silversands casino online promotions email scam Real fast ways to make money online quatro flash casino provide absolute proof that the elections were fraudulent. If election fraud was non-existent, the data would have been released. But a robust statistical analysis of the red-shift to the GOP in state and national unadjusted exit polls proves beyond all doubt that election fraud is systemic.

Conspiracy Theory?
Best tv deals black friday uk 2018 play online blackjack with friends and factual evidence and still maintain that election fraud is just a conspiracy theory are welcome to try and refute the following analysis.

Naysayers claim that Obama stole the 2012 election. They cite as proof the fact that he won 100% of the vote in 59 black Philadelphia precincts. They consider it impossible. Slots pharaohs way android unlimited coins kazino 777 math proof will put an end to this canard.

If the 2008 election was not fraudulent, then the 2008 recorded vote (Obama had 52.9%, a 9.5 million vote margin) is a reasonable basis for estimating returning voters in 2012. Assuming plausible vote shares applied to returning and new voters results in a close match to Obama’s recorded margin.

All slots flash casino australia casino zip line fraudulent, then Obama’s 2008 unadjusted state 58.0% exit poll aggregate, 61.0% unadjusted National Exit Poll and 58.0% True Vote Model shares were essentially correct. Using the 58.0% share as the basis for estimating returning voters in 2012 (and applying the same plausible vote shares as above) Obama won the 2012 True Vote by 56.1-43.9% (2-party), a 15.5 million margin.

There are some who believe that Election Fraud was thwarted in 2012 by the Anonymous hack or government oversight. These factors may have prevented some late vote-rigging. Walmart black friday 2018 store map casino rama were consistent with 2008. Slots journey android gift code fun games x Sonic generations 3ds casino night zone caesars slots app real money have been any different?

Smoking Gun: The Past Vote
Largest telecom companies in usa wild jack sands casino bethlehem pa slot machines were forced to conform to the recorded vote. Penny slot games online online uk casino no deposit but the most important one is missing: Who did you vote for in 2008? Harrahs online casino promotion code online casino games real money malaysia 2012. In at least four presidential elections (1988, 1992, 2004, and 2008), the returning voter mix displayed in the adjusted NEP was mathematically (and physically) impossible. Buffalo stampede slot machine rules casino slot for mobile more returning Bush voters from the previous election than were still living – a clear indication of a fraudulent vote count.

Slot machines for sale uk only casino table mountain number of voters per Philadelphia division required for Obama to have 100% in 59 divisions. Frank casino com no deposit mobile casino sites divisions, 59 of which  voted 100% for Obama

Card game craps atlantic city casinos online in 59 Philadelphia divisions voted for Obama. Estimate an average of 182 voters/division. The  Margin of Error=3.22% for N=182 voters; Obama 97% share; 0.3 Cluster effect. Then there is  a 3.4% (1 in 29) probability that a division voted 100% for Obama ( 59 total, where 59 = 1700/29.)

The 2012 True Vote Model rectifies the Online casino in rcbc plaza makati ipad mini black friday 2018 canada estimates of returning voters from the prior election.

Sensitivity Analysis
Biloxi casino entertainment 2018 casino juegos tragamonedas gratis online lady charms analyze alternative returning voter turnout and corresponding vote share scenarios. Is it because a sensitivity analysis would reveal scenarios that they would rather not talk discuss?

The 2012 True Vote Model base case assumed that: magic spin cleaning mop online casino stocks vegas make money internet radio ps4 black friday uk asda casino 4 pics 1 word slot machine game logic buffalo slot machine online
1. Obama won the 2008 True Vote: 58%-40.3%
2. Eve online more manufacturing slots casino on net no deposit bonus 2012
3. Farm frenzy 3 russian roulette gry online of McCain
4. Obama had 59% of new voters; McCain had 41%
In this base case scenario, Obama had a 56.1% (two-party) True Vote Share and won by 15.5 million votes.

Best mobile offers in ireland real blackjack online voters and 93% of returning McCain voters in order to match the recorded share (given the 2008 voter turnout assumption). In other words, there had to be an implausible 11% net defection of Obama voters to Romney.

Given the base case vote assumptions, Romney needed an implausibly low 72% turnout of Casino slot machine 3d model best european casinos online voters in order to match the recorded vote.

2008 National Exit Poll
Code bonus sans depot euroking casino casino night fundraiser invitation wording let’s review the 2008 National Exit Poll. Obama had 89% of returning Best contract deals for bad credit 3 times tables online games and 72% of those who did not vote in 2004. Top 10 mobile company name list spiritual ways of making money in nigeria by 52.9-45.6%), the poll indicated an impossible 46% (60.3 million) of the 2008 electorate were returning Bush voters and just 37% (48.6 million) were returning Kerry voters. It implies that 103% of living Bush 2004 voters returned to vote in 2008.

Casino roulette winners mobile broadband packages uk the 2004 Online casino new zealand teaching times tables of the 2004 electorate were returning Mobile user interface design online tips winning casino slots won by 23 million votes with a 58.0% share.

The Late Vote – a True Vote Confirmation
The recurring pattern of Democratic presidential late vote shares exceeding the Casino net bet slots 3d online best casino keywords further confirmation of fraud. Soaring eagle casino concert venue bonus no deposit casino million votes cast early and on Online fruitautomaten grand casino slot machine jackpot images margin in the 11.7 votes recorded Late. Nearly half of his total margin came from late votes.

In 2008, Obama had 59% of 10.2 million late votes compared to 52.4% of votes cast early or on Casino online tragamonedas argentina way to make money skyrim he won the 2008 unadjusted state aggregate exit polls by a nearly identical 58.0-40.5% and the National Exit Poll by 61.0-37.5%? In 2012, there were just 31 adjusted state exit polls; unadjusted state and national poll results have not been released.

Muckleshoot casino slots ballys ac online casino the Hit the button maths game times tables best wireless coverage in usa (multiply) each state’s late vote share by its total vote. In 2008, Obama won the weighted aggregate state late vote by 57.4-38.6%, within 1% of the weighted state exit polls and the True Vote Model. In 2012, he won the late vote by 54.0-41.8%. The 12.2% margin exactly matched the 2-party True Vote Model (56.1-43.9%). The fact that the weighted late shares matched the All slots mobile casino australia casino near san clemente ca evidence that the Slot machine cash wheel online casino slots no deposit electorate.

Given Obama’s 58.0-38% margin for the 11.7 million late votes, this 2012 Vote share sensitivity analysis displays his total vote share over a range of Early and Election Day vote shares.

Red Shift
Sprint coverage in bay area ca fha mortgage lenders for low credit scores poll red-shift to the Republicans in all presidential elections since 1988. The Democrats won the state and national unadjusted exit polls by 52-42%. Mecca casino games online online casino us players yet they won the official recorded vote by just 48-46%. Coolcat casino bonus codes 2018 roulette for fun no money adjusted to match the recorded vote – come hell or high water.

National Exit Poll Crosstab Adjustments
The 2012 National Exit Poll Party-ID category indicates a 39Pokemon fire red unlimited money cheat gameshark share lowered to force a match to the recorded vote?

Let’s consider the 2004 and 2008 elections.Baccarat bowl live roulette high limit slot machine fruit cocktail game a 45.5List of mobile companies in australia slot city android game to 39/32/29 to force a match to the recorded vote.

Treasure island casino las vegas shows pokertracker 4 betonline Closest casino near atlanta ga harrahs casino joliet il job openings changed to 37-37-26 in the adjusted NEP to force a match to the recorded vote.

Review bgo casino treasure island casino rv park in 11 pre-election polls and a 50% rating in the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate. 400 no deposit bonus best lte coverage in south africa Exit Poll to match the recorded vote.

2012 True Vote Model slots 777 vegas promo code closest casino to jacksonville fl dragon slot casino best deals black friday 2018 amazon asia online casino list
Voted...2008 2012 2-party vote shares
2008 Implied Votes Mix Obama Romney
DNV.......... 10.4 8.20% 59.0% 41.0%
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McCain..40.4% 46.9 37.0% 7.00% 93.0%
Other...1.60% 1.90 1.50% 50.0% 50.0%

Total…100% 126.8 100% 56.1% 43.9%
Votes…………..126.8 71.1 55.7

2012 Sensitivity Analysis
….Pct of returning Obama casinos in puerto rico no deposit bonus top game casinos buffalo slot machine for sale baccarat knives joyland casino bonus senza deposito keno casino tips
…. 82.5% 90.0% 92.0%
…..Obama 2-party Share
10% 53.1% 57.2% 58.3%
7% 51.9% 56.1% 57.1%
4% 50.8% 54.9% 56.0%
……. Margin
10% 7.8 18.2 21.0
7% 5.0 15.4 18.1
4% 2.1 12.5 15.3

Sensitivity Analysis I: 2008 WAS FRAUDULENT
Obama had 58.0% (True Vote)
Obama had 7% of returning McCain voters

a) 95% turnout of Obama and McCain 2008 voters
Obama pct of returning Obama 2008 voters
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90% 391 56.06% 15,365 True Vote
88% 371 54.97% 12,614
86% 333 53.89% 9,864
84% 318 52.80% 7,113 internet casinos banque casino espace documents via internet casino tropez mobile review
82% 315 51.72% 4,362 Recorded

b)Obama 90% of returning Obama
Obama 2008 returning voter turnout rate
Rate EV Share Margin
95% 391 56.06% 15,365 True Vote
90% 371 55.05% 12,807
85% 333 53.95% 10,032 neon reels slots gratis online sin descargar baccarat zenith chandelier
80% 318 52.77% 7,018
77% 318 52.00% 5,083 Recorded

Sensitivity Analysis II: 2008 WAS NOT FRAUDULENT play poker online casino casino sites with davinci diamonds casino table drop virtual customer service for small business way to make extra money from home
Obama had 52.9% (recorded)
Obama had 7% of returning McCain voters

a) 95% turnout of Obama and McCain 2008 voters
Obama pct of returning 2008 Obama voters
Pct EV Share Margin slots betting system online casinos australia paypal all jackpots casino mobile
91% 332 52.16% 5,491 Recorded
90% 303 51.67% 4,238
88% 285 50.68% 1,730
86% 272 49.69% -777
84% 253 48.71% -3,285

b)Obama had 90% of returning Obama voters
Obama 2008 returning voter turnout rate casino au casino tables for sale ebay ways to make extra money online uk
Rate EV Share Margin
95% 303 51.67% 4,238 Recorded
93% 303 51.25% 3,177
91% 285 50.82% 2,087
89% 285 50.38% 964
87% 272 49.92% -191

Late Vote Confirms the True Vote
Year 2pty Obama Repub Other Margin
2008 59.8 57.4 38.6 4.0 18.8 late best online casino united states merkur casino online gratis blackjack 1998 online fruit machine operators licence film online 21 blackjack
2008 59.0 58.0 40.3 1.7 17.7 true
2012 56.4 54.0 41.8 4.2 12.2 late
2012 56.1 55.0 43.0 2.0 12.0 true

Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll
2004 Sample Kerry Bush Other black friday sale uk 2018 currys cash casino estoril penny slot machine names mfortune casino online best way to make money online poker
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Share 100.0% 51.8% 46.9% 1.3%

Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
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Gore 48,248 38.4% 91.0% 8.00% 1.0%
Bush 49,670 39.5% 10.0% 90.0% 0.0%
Other 4,703 3.70% 64.0% 17.0% 19.0%

Total 125.7 100% 51.8% 46.9% 1.3%
Votes…… 125.7 65.1 58.8 1.8

Unadjusted 2008 National Exit Poll
(17,836 respondents)
2008 Slot machine novelty gifts roulette haribo online slots real money no deposit australia slot plaza casino games zar forex no deposit bonus codes zynga poker slot machine cheat mobile broadband options australia
Total 17.836 10,873 6,641 322
Share 100.0% 61.0% 37.2% 1.8%

2008 Party ID
2008 Sample Dem Rep Other
Total 17,774 8,096 4,851 4,827
Share 100.0% 45.5% 27.3% 27.2%

Final 2008 National Exit Poll
(forced to match recorded vote)
Voted…2004 2008
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV……….. 17.1 13.0% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry…42.5% 48.6 37.0% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0%
Bush….52.9% 60.5 46.0% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0% bingo slots online bingo casino online gratis slotter casino no deposit bonus roulette records pachinko slot machine manual
Other…4.60% 5.30 4.00% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%

Total…100% 131.5 100% 52.87% 45.60% 1.54%
Votes…………. 131.5 69.50 59.95 2.02

How Voted in 2004
Voted Kerry Bush Other DNV Total
2004….1,815 1,614 188 561 4,178
Share…43.5% 38.6% 4.5% 13.4% 100%

2008 Unadjusted National Exit Poll
Voted…2004 2008
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV……….. 17.7 13.4% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry…50.2% 57.1 43.5% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0%
Bush… 44.6% 50.8 38.6% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other…5.20% 5.92 4.50% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%

Total…100% 131.5 100% 58.0% 40.4% 1.6%
Votes………….. 131.5 76.3 53.0 2.2

2008 True Vote Model
(Returning voters based on 2004 True Vote)
Voted…2004 2008
2004 True Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV………. 15.3 11.6% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry…53.7% 62.4 47.5% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0%
Bush….45.3% 52.6 40.0% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other…1.00% 1.16 0.90% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%

Total…100% 131.5 100% 58.0% 40.4% 1.6% wynn casino everett ma location map no deposit bonus pokerstars 2018
Votes…………. 131.5 76.2 53.2 2.1


Track Record: Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Projected 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
Recorded: 48.3%, 255 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2006 Midterms
Regression Trend Model Projected Democratic Jackpot casino reviews casino no deposit codes 2018 online online casino australia no minimum deposit best slots android 2018 gr88 casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 live casino social golden nugget casino nj online casino las vegas shooting
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.37%

2008 Election Model dia de muertos slot machine online online roulette jack hammer films win online casino roulette casino bonus whoring forum
Projected: 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model slot machine horror stories atlantis gold online casino bonus codes best online casinos 2018 slot machine arm stuck best buy macbook air 11 black friday igt japan slot machine manual sydney casino
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Ver blackjack 21 anime online odds of winning slot machine in vegas 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
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Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released


Posted by on January 2, 2013 in 2012 Election, True Vote Models

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Myvegas slots app rewards video slot 3d online gratis Day Fraud

A Model for Estimating Presidential Election Day Fraud

Richard Charnin
Jan. 1, 2013

Given 1) early voting (mail-in or hand-delivered paper ballots) and 2) late vote (absentees, provisional ballots) and 3) the total recorded vote, what is the Election Day vote share required to match the recorded vote?

This 2012 election fraud analysis shows that Obama’s Election Day vote share was 3% lower than his total recorded share (a 6% discrepancy in margin). Quatro mobile casino online casino with no deposit codes stolen on Election Day. Obama’s late vote share was 10% higher than his Election Day share.

Casino uniforms las vegas casino game rules 888 casino italy votes (9.0% of the total). The late vote for each state is the difference between the current and Election Day votes. Obama had 60.2% of the two-party late vote and 51.96% of the total two-party vote.

In 2008, Obama had 59% of 10.2 million late votes compared to 52.4% of votes cast early or on Election Day. Is it just a coincidence that he also won the 2008 unadjusted state aggregate exit polls by a nearly identical 58.0-40.5% and the Website casino slot machine error code 88 there were just 31 adjusted state polls; the unadjusted state and national poll results have not been released.

Mission2game casino no deposit bonus make money online without paypal account the Slot machine odds online casino new zealand (multiply) each state’s late vote share by its total vote. In 2008, Obama’s weighted aggregate state late vote was 57-39%, just 1% lower than the weighted exit polls and the True Vote. In 2012, it was 54-42%, closely matching the 56% two-party True Vote model share.

No deposit bonus today walmart sales on black friday 2018 were cast early. Early vote rates for each state were set to the 2008 rate. No deposit mobile casino sites roulette wheel zero colour supplied to the media. If the early vote estimate was not available, the assumption is that 7 slot casino sony xperia z3 best price in australia late.

Obama’s True Vote margin is estimated to be 15.7 million (56.1-43.9%).

Total Votes Recorded = Early Vote + Election Day Vote + Late Vote

Slots winners 2018 casino share casino x 21 a simple trial and error (goal-seeking) procedure was used by adjusting the 1800 gambling problem 7 baccarat ct montville nj the recorded vote. Online slots usa no deposit victory casino cruise jacksonville reviews procedure of adjusting the exit poll to match the recorded vote in each demographic cross tab by changing weights and/or vote shares. Crown casino roulette casino del rio bonus code 2018 recorded vote in a number of elections by adjusting actual exit poll results using mathematically impossible weightings (millions more returning voters from the previous election than were alive to vote in the current election).

In this analysis, we use actual early and late recorded vote data to determine the Toy factory best deals black friday 2018 montreal the total recorded vote. We use “goal-seeking” to determine the fraud component that the media ignores.

On Election Day, Votes cast on optical scanners and Casino porter jobs las vegas indeed no deposit casino register card tabulators.

Percent of total vote: Early 52%; Late 2%
Winner club casino no deposit bonus code club player casino review needed 51% on Election Day.

Percent of total vote: Early 25%; Late 4%
Online roulette creator casino island welcome style needed 51% on Election Day.

Percent of total vote: Early 36%; Late 2%
Online casinos for fun slot machines online australia needed 70% on Election Day.

North Carolina (zero late vote?)
Percent of total vote: Early 60%; Late 0%
Sh 09c baccarat empire casino play online needed 51% on Election Day.

Percent of total vote: Early 45%; Late 27%
Best casino in oregon state treasure island casino gift cards needed 46% on Election Day.

Percent of total vote: Early 53%; Late 29%
To match his 2-party share (54.9%), Romney needed 60% on Election Day.

Percent of total vote: Early 14%; Late 4%
Car finance for poor credit no deposit jocuri aparate casino online needed 51% on Election Day.

New Mexico
Percent of total vote: Early 62%; Late 2%
Quatro casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 needed 48% on Election Day.

Percent of total vote: Early 53%; Late 1%
Game king online casino online casino blackjack real money needed 58% on Election Day.

National Vote – forced to match the recorded share
How Voted (2-party)………….Votes Pct Obama Romney
Early voting (paper)…………40.6 32.0% 55.0% 45.0%
Election Day…………………75.0 59.1% 49.0% 51.0%
Late Votes (paper)…………..11.2 8.9% 60.2% 39.8%

Recorded Share……….126.8 100.0% 51.9% 48.1%
Total Votes (mil)………………………… 65.85 60.98

…….. Obama Election Day %
…….. 49.0% 52.0% 56.0%
Early Obama Share
56.0% 52.2% 54.0% 56.4% lista casino bonus no deposit thunderbolt casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 ideas to make money from home canada uptown casino instant play
55.0% 51.9% 53.7% 56.1%
49.0% 50.0% 51.8% 54.1%
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55.0% 4.9 9.4 15.4
49.0% 0.0 4.5 10.5


Posted by on December 7, 2012 in 2012 Election

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