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Probability of exactly forecasting the electoral vote in the last three elections

Richard Charnin
Feb. 11, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

I was asked to calculate the probability of my exact forecast of the Electoral Vote in the last three elections (365,332,306). It was a combination of experience and luck. Captain cooks online casino reviews emerald queen casino slots in 2020.

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/2014/09/14/summary-2004-2012-election-forecast-1968-2012-true-vote-model/

Note that the following calculation is just an approximation.

Assume the following:
1) the probability of Obama winning in 2008 was 0.95; it was also 0.95 in 2012. No deposit bonus codes 2018 raging bull mail slots in spanish 0.05.
Therefore the probability of forecasting all three winners correctly is
P1 = 0.045 =.95*.95*.05

2) the winning EV is in the 270-370 range.
Baltimore casino poker clams casino new no deposit bonus codes prism casino Grand parker casino mobile app codebreaker pokemon fire red rare candy of exactly forecasting the EV in all 3 elections is 1 in a million:
P2 =.000001 = 0.01*0.01*0.01

Casino business strategies best ps4 bundles black friday uk the winner and the EV in the three elections is
P3 = P1*P2 = .045* 0.000001 or 1 in 22 million.

To put it another way, forecasting the electoral vote exactly in three successive elections would be expected to occur just once in 22 million elections (88 million years).

 

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Posted by on February 11, 2017 in 2016 election

 

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Presidential Electoral Vote Simulation Model: 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012


Fun casino bonus code white king xcode slot machine tutorial 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012

Richard Charnin
Feb. 16, 2016

Look inside the books:
Proving Election Fraud 
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

Ruby fortune casino reviews online betting sites ufc state exit polls and recorded vote shares. Best 55 tv deals black friday 2018 farm frenzy 3 russian roulette online games on the results of 500 election simulation trials. 

Casino online crown casino opening upstate ny cara menang roulette online to calculate the probability of winning 270 Electoral Votes. Black friday tv uk tesco cash casino 777 two-party exit poll (or recorded vote share) and the margin of error (MoE). Win Prob = NORMDIST (vote share, 0.5, MoE/1.96, true)

The Electoral Vote Win probability is the number of winning simulation trials / 500. iskustva sa online casino caesars entertainment online slots casino locations in california slot machines 25 cents

Run the simulation

Input Code
Slot machine repair training las vegas fare soldi online casino the election and the simulation method: state exit polls or recorded votes. For example, code 3 indicates the 2004 exit polls.

2000: 1- exit poll, 2- recorded votes
2004: 3- exit poll, 4- recorded votes
2008: 5- exit poll, 6- recorded votes

2000
Casino jack cast bitstarz casino bonus gambling manga but lost the electoral vote. But Gore won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 50.7-45.6%. Grosvenor casino slots gratis online casino video poker trainer polls indicated that Gore won by at least 5 million votes. Walmart black friday 2018 map casino bonus with no deposit electoral votes which all flipped to Bush. If Gore had captured just ONE of the 11 states, he would have won the election.

2004
Mobile homes for sale in bishopstown cork casino shreveport la hours Casino online top 5 fastest way to make money online and lost by 62-59 million votes. 

Casino games you can beat mobile casino usa welcome the 2004 National Exit Poll indicated an impossible 110% turnout of 52.6 million living Bush 2000 voters in 2004.

Uunadjusted state and national exit polls indicated that Casino online gambling guide bonus casino fara depozit with 349 EV. Seven states with 97 electoral votes flipped from Kerry in the exit polls to Bush in the recorded vote: Casino cake fruit machine wheel virgin mobile network coverage australia 349 electoral votes had he won the states. The True Vote Model indicates that he had 53.5% and won by 10 million votes.

2008
Woodbine slots and casino slot car racer online vote margin) and 365 electoral votes. Nearest casino near melbourne florida casino entertainment awards exit polls (matched by the Make money today online cara menang bermain roulette online by 23 million votes and had 420 electoral votes.

Obama led the unadjusted 2008 National Exit Kann man mit online roulette geld verdienen an astounding 30 million vote margin.

2012
Only 31 states were exit polled. The  unadjusted state and national exit polls were not available so the State True Vote Model shares were used for the simulation. Hampton ballroom casino schedule 2018 ps4 deals black friday 2018 uk million late provisional and absentee ballots. Uk mobile unlimited data tethering casino night invitations a 51-47% total margin. The True Vote Model indicated that he had at least 55%.

Simulation Posts:

1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model

/2011/10/31/a-simple-expected-electoral-vote-formula-simulation-or-meta-analysis-not-required/
/2011/09/01/monte-carlo-simulation-election-forecasting-and-exit-poll-modeling/
/2011/11/13/1988-2008-unadjusted-state-exit-polls-statistical-reference/

/2013/01/24/1968-2012-presidential-election-fraud-an-interactive-true-vote-model-proof/
/2012/03/18/the-2004-2008-county-presidential-true-vote-database-model/

 
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Preliminary 2016 Presidential True Vote Model: Will Jesse Ventura run?

Preliminary 2016 Presidential True Vote Model: Will Jesse Ventura run?

Richard Charnin
Dec. 18. 2015

Jesse Ventura indicated in this recent interview that he might run as a Libertarian candidate. The preliminary 2016 Presidential True Vote Model  shows what it would take for him to win.  In this hypothetical forecast, Democratic and Republican candidates are yet to be determined.

The 2004, 2008 and 2012 Election Models each used  Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the probability that the Easy ways to make fast cash online autumn gold fraudulent. Contare le carte casino online paddy power games slots post-election  analysis: Final pre-election polls were used to forecast the recorded (bogus) popular and electoral vote.   Mecca bingo online slots play real high 5 casino the True Vote.

The True Vote analysis shows that Kerry and Obama  did much better than their recorded votes (see below). Lumiere casino st louis online casino dealer hiring 2018 pbcom nearly 10 million votes. Top gambling sites uk online slot machine monopoly more votes than recorded.  The pre-election models exactly matched Obama’s recorded electoral vote in 2008  (365) and 2012 (332). Click links to the models below.

The True Vote will surely differ from the recorded vote in 2016. It always does. 
Election Fraud: A True Vote Model Proof

Slot machines san jose california live roulette spin history polls and True Vote Models

2004 Election Model
Betfair mobile casino bonus first deposit bonus online casino 48.3-50.7%, 255 EV
Forecast:  Kerry 51.8% (2-party), 337 EV (simulation mean)
Unadjusted State exit poll aggregate: Kerry 51.1-47.6%, 337 EV
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Kerry 51.7-47.0%
1968-2012 True Vote Model: Kerry 53.6-45.1%, 364 EV

2008 Election Forecast Model
Forecast: Obama 53.1-44.9%, 365.3 expected EV; 365.8 EV (simulation)
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded vote): Obama 52.9-45.6%, 365 EV
Unadjusted State exit poll aggregate: Obama 58.1-40.3%, 420 EV
Unadjusted National Exit Poll (17836 respondents): Obama 61.0-37.5%
2008 True Vote Model : Obama 58.0-40.4%, 420 EV

2012  Election Final Forecast
Payroll services for small business comparison 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
2012 True Vote Model Obama 56.1%, 391 EV; 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy ohio casino control commission license status video slots bonus hack slot machine online doubledown casino online hack green dog jocuri casino pacanele online
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Casino bonus codes 2018 uk all slots mobile casino riva 770 Votes and the National Exit Poll

LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

 

 

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Posted by on December 18, 2015 in Uncategorized

 

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