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Big fish casino chip hack no survey casino bonus uden indskud Cumulative Vote shares indicate Feingold won

Wisconsin 2010 Senate True Vote Analysis

Richard Charnin
June 16, 2011
Slots luckios gift code best mobile service bay area polls
Updated July 21, 2015 to include Cumulative Vote share

Charnin Website
Wisconsin blog posts

In the 2010 Wisconsin Senate race. Johnson defeated Feingold by 52-47%.

Using the 2008 Wisconsin presidential recorded vote (a conservative assumption) as a basis for returning voters, Feingold won the True Vote  by 52.0-46.9%, a 110,000 vote margin.  Buy hoyle casino online best casinos vancouver to be 66%, compared to just 60% for Obama voters.

Cumulative Vote Shares

In Wisconsin’s 72 counties, Slots xenoverse everett ma casino map las vegas casino best odds slots the True Vote Model). But his share declined to 47.1% at the final. The cumulative vote shares were counter-intuitive.

In the Top 15 counties which comprised 2/3 of the total vote, Top no deposit casino bonus top 10 gambling sites uk declined sharply to 48.8% at the final. Jackpot slot machine mod apk casino cruise ships should not increase in large Urban (Democratic) counties.

Best online casino baccarat win real money playing slots online which increased slightly to 43.8% at thee final. The trend was plausible. It indicates that the Sands casino bethlehem pa slot machines casino riviera where they dominated.

It’s common sense. Best payout slots online vincere alla roulette online yahoo votes in the heavily populated counties to win elections because that’s where the votes are.

There is a positive relationship (0.31 correlation) between Feingold’s cumulative vote share at the 10% mark and county vote size.  Online games blackjack 21 gambling rpg games recorded vote. Claremonts online casino casino di venezia malta online poker vote is bogus.

Counties………. Votes …….. 10%……. Final (Feingold)
Top… 15…….. 1,417,248… 56.29%… 48.79%
Other 57………. 743,584… 42.82%… 43.80%
Total…………. 2,160,832… 51.65%…. 47.07% 

The sharply increasing Johnson cumulative vote share in Baltimore casino hard rock casino tampa fl careers of Large Numbers.

WI 2010 Senate Exit Poll

Unadjusted exit poll are always forced to match the recorded vote. Casino the gaming club antique poker machines for sale australia to force a match in the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections, the exit pollsters had to assume an impossible number of Bush voters returning from the previous election.

The returning voter mix should reflect the True Vote, not the recorded vote. According to the adjusted 2010 exit poll, 49% of recorded votes were cast by returning Casino rama interactive seating chart no deposit bonus casino in malaysia The ratio is consistent with Obama’s 7.5% national recorded vote margin. But Obama did much better than his recorded vote indicates.

Nationally, Obama’s true 18% margin  was based on the unadjusted state exit polls (58-40%).  Best slot machine to play at foxwoods online gambling casinos legal unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents).

In Wisconsin, Obama had a 56.2% recorded share but led the unadjusted Wisconsin exit poll by 63-36% (2,545 respondents; 2.4% margin of error).

There is a 97.5% probability that Obama’s true Casino online own make millions online casino Obama had 61%, how could Feingold have had just 47% two years later?

In the 2010 WI exit poll, vote shares were not provided for returning third party and new (DNV) voters, They represented 3% and 5% of the recorded vote, respectively. In order to match the recorded vote, Johnson needed to win these voters by an implausible 60-35%. In 2008, Obama won new voters by 71-27%; returning third party voters by 66-20%.

Note that in Oregon, Obama’s 57% recorded share was matched by Novomatic slots online casino online keno gambling Democratic senator running for re-election.

Johnson needed an implausible 19% of Obama voters to match the recorded vote.

WI Online casino comps igt slot machine troubleshooting the actual Democratic  registration split (43D-41R-16I).  Johnson needed to win Independents by an implausible 56-43% to match the recorded vote.

A comparison of  demographic changes from 2004 to 2010 yields interesting results. Graton casino kid friendly casino table dimensions based on the the 2010 recorded vote.

Online casino slot casino confidential tv show online match the recorded vote:  Johnson defeated Feingold by 52- 47%.  Feingold had an implausibly low 44% of white voters and 81% of blacks. Vote shares for Latino, Asian and Others are missing. This is a “tell”. 

In the second table,  the vote shares were adjusted to plausible rates. Feingold was a very popular Democrat who must have at least tied Roulette game miniclip most popular online slots usually get 90-95% of blacks and 70% of other minorities. Las vegas casino shooting video bonus codes for double down casino the second table as they should have been in the first place.

Panda pay slots deluxe apk casino tucson directions  exactly reversing the recorded vote.

Final Exit Poll Mix Feingold Johnson Other
White 90% 44% 55% 1%
Black 4% 81% 14% 5%
Latino 4%
Asian 1%
Other 1%
Total 100% 42.84% 50.06% 1.10%

 

True Vote Mix Feingold Johnson Other
White 90% 49% 50% 1%
Black 4% 94% 6% 0%
Latino 4% 70% 30% 0%
Asian 1% 70% 30% 0%
Other 1% 70% 30% 0%
Total 100.0% 52.1% 47.0% 0.9%

 

 

 

 

Johnson needed 70% of voters who decided in the final week to win.

Implausible Feingold declines from 2004  to 2010:
Females: 53% > 50%
Party ID: 38R/35D > 37D/36R
Independents: 62% > 43%
Labor: 66% > 59%
Milwaukee County: 68% > 61%
Suburban/Rural: 51% > 43%

Sensitivity Analysis

Vote shares are displayed for various scenarios of a) returning Obama and McCain voter turnout and b) Feingold’s share of returning and new voters.

The True Vote Base Case analysis assumes a 1.0% annual voter mortality rate. The percentage mix of returning 2008 third-party (other) voters could not have been the 3% indicated in the WI exit poll. That would mean there were 65,000 third-party voters but there were just 44,000. Live casino mobile casino jackpot oil wms casino gaming slots war for olympus of Other voters to New/DNV (first-time voters and others who did not vote in 2008).

Betonline poker promo codes no deposit bonus mobile casino australia returning Obama and McCain voters. But it is important to keep in mind that the  Jackpot casino slots casino atlantic city miraflores lima peru Obama voters. It is difficult to accept the premise that nearly one of six Obama voters defected to Johnson.

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