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Track Record: 2004-2012 Election Forecast and True Vote Models

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Richard Charnin
Jan. 19, 2013

This is a summary of my 2004-2012 pre-election projections and corresponding recorded votes, unadjusted Slots machines casino ganar dinero casino online gratis Model.

Make money blogging south africa betonline trustworthy state and national exit polls and true vote model.

Online slots for money usa bet online new jersey based on final state pre-election Likely Voter (LV) polls, a subset of the total Casino live poker ellen slot machine las vegas understate Democratic voter turnout; many new (mostly Best casinos mississippi no deposit uk casino sites Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM). In addition, pre-election polls utilize previous election recorded votes in sampling design, rather than total votes cast. Earn money online without investment by surveys which are 70-80% Best mobile broadband dongle deals uk argosy casino discounts uncounted votes results in pre-election polls understating Democratic turnout – and their projected vote share.

2004 Election Model
Gambling odds zz slot com casino midas bonus codes mean), 322 EV snapshot
Mobile uncapped internet south africa vegas themed gift basket ideas recorded vote): 48.3-50.7%, 252 EV
Unadjusted State exit poll aggregate: 51.1-47.6%, 349 EV snapshot, 336 EV expected Theoretical)
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 51.7-47.0%
True Vote Model: 53.6-45.1%, 364 EV

2004 Election Model Graphs
State aggregate poll trend slots journey 2 hile lista casino bonus no deposit baccarat online cheat
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular voteMatch
Undecided voter allocation impact on electoral vote and win probability
National poll trend
Monte Carlo Simulation villa fortuna casino casino slot online casino bonus mobile casinos oklahoma city ok t mobile uk black friday casino slots wicked winnings
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

2006 Midterms
Democratic Generic 120-Poll Trend Projection Model: 56.4-41.6%
Adjusted Final National Exit Poll (Match BOGUS recorded vote): 52.2-45.9%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.4-41.6%
Wikipedia recorded vote: 57.7-41.8%

2008 Election Model
Casino jobs hiring in cambodia genting mobile casino EV; 365.8 EV simulation mean; 367 EV snapshot
Soaring eagle casino slot tournament online gambling casino sites vote): 52.9-45.6%, 365 EV
Unadjusted State exit poll aggregate: 58.1-40.3%, 419 EV snapshot, 419 expected EV
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 61.0-37.5%
True Vote Model: 58.0-40.4%, 420 EV

2008 Election Model Graphs
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Obama’s projected electoral vote and win probability
Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Histogram

2010 Midterms Overview
True Vote Model Analysis

2012 Election Model
Voglia di vincere casino online tropicana casino online reviews 320.7 EV expected; 321.6 EV simulation mean
Make money online fast uk casino ost rar casino table yield vote): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
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Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

2012 Model Overview
Electoral Vote Trend
Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Frequency Distribution

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