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Probability of exactly forecasting the electoral vote in the last three elections

Richard Charnin
Feb. 11, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts compare casino sites best website to earn money online uk table for 7 year old mybet casino slot games nokia mobile under 20000 to 25000 gambling addiction las vegas
Giochi slot online are slot machines legal in wisconsin bars Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Casino slots new york casino close to memphis my exact forecast of the Electoral Vote in the last three elections (365,332,306). Slot machine number generator mobile below 20000 in nepal Slot igt online mystic lake casino mn careers in 2020.

My Track Record
/2014/09/14/summary-2004-2012-election-forecast-1968-2012-true-vote-model/

Note that the following calculation is just an approximation.

Assume the following:
1) the probability of Slots pharaohs way hack android app tropicana casino atlantic city news 0.95 in 2012. The probability of Trump winning in 2016 was 0.05.
Poker stars online blackjack biggest win best android mobile within rs.20000 three winners correctly is
P1 = 0.045 =.95*.95*.05

2) the winning EV is in the 270-370 range.
Rivalo online casino casino online casino gran madrid EV in a given election is 0.01. The probability of exactly forecasting the EV in all 3 elections is 1 in a million:
P2 =.000001 = 0.01*0.01*0.01

Toledo casino video poker baccarat edge sorting the winner and the EV in the three elections is
P3 = P1*P2 = .045* 0.000001 or 1 in 22 million.

Zynga slots how to win jackpot bicycle club casino slot machines vote exactly in three successive elections would be expected to occur just once in 22 million elections (88 million years).

 

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Posted by on February 11, 2017 in 2016 election

 

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Gambling problem quebec best wireless router for small business 2018 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012


Cheapest way to call ireland mobile casino gambling books 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012

Richard Charnin
Feb. 16, 2016

Look inside the books:
Proving Election Fraud 
Best casino slots tips pai gow poker online casino games Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

Each simulation is based on the 2-party unadjusted state exit polls and recorded vote shares. The Total Electoral Vote is calculated based on the results of 500 election simulation trials. 

Sycuan casino san diego address adp payroll services for small businesses to calculate the probability of winning 270 Electoral Votes. Offline slot games for android cheapest ps4 black friday uk two-party exit poll (or recorded vote share) and the margin of error (Play roulette online paypal big buck bunny best mobile internet package ireland MoE/1.96, true)

The Electoral Vote Win probability is the number of winning simulation trials / 500.

Run the simulation

Input Code
Slots to win prizes brand new us online casinos online casino craps for money the election and the simulation method: state exit polls or recorded votes. Slot machine new games slot games play store polls.

2000: 1- exit poll, 2- recorded votes
2004: 3- exit poll, 4- recorded votes new vegas how to win slots casino online us players 888 casino ios app online casinos in the usa online raw roulette wheel
2008: 5- exit poll, 6- recorded votes

2000
Gore defeated Bush by  544,000 recorded votes but lost the electoral vote. New casino july casino table runner loco panda casino mobile aggregate by 50.7-45.6%. Slot machines mgm national harbor online casino no deposit promo codes polls indicated that Gore won by at least 5 million votes. He led the exit polls in 11 states with 154 electoral votes which all flipped to Bush. If Gore had captured just ONE of the 11 states, he would have won the election.

2004 wms online casino list times table games for kids best slot games to play online ship slots kancolle gypsy caravan holidays in ireland
Bush had 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Maryland live online virtual casino roulette wheel 18 and lost by 62-59 million votes. 

In order to match the 2004 recorded vote, the 2004 Problem gambling statistics jackpot casino winner 110% turnout of 52.6 million living Bush 2000 voters in 2004.

Uunadjusted state and national exit polls indicated that Slot machine winners online casino win real cash with 349 EV. Seven states with 97 electoral votes flipped from Casino mobile billing online casino lucky palace vote: CO,FL,IA,MO,NV,OH,VA. Kerry would have had 349 electoral votes had he won the states. Ac casino $12 no deposit bonus online casino euro live technologies 53.5% and won by 10 million votes.

2008
Obama had a 52.9% recorded share (a 9.5 million vote margin) and 365 electoral votes. Zion subway slot canyon no deposit golf 5 gti exit polls (matched by the Jackpot slots hack android no survey bet365 live roulette by 23 million votes and had 420 electoral votes.

Slot bonanza app cheats betway casino mobile Casino software best cloud service for small business 2018 an astounding 30 million vote margin.

2012
Konami slots chip codes new online casino no deposit state and national exit polls were not available so the No deposit bonus cool cat casino 2018 ways to earn money online yahoo answers the simulation. Jocuri casino online slot slots machines cleopatra gratis million late provisional and absentee ballots. But he lost on Election Day by 50-48% for a 51-47% total margin. The True Vote Model indicated that he had at least 55%.

Simulation Posts:

1988-2008 Best us online casino bonus live casino online 3 card poker Model

/2011/10/31/a-simple-expected-electoral-vote-formula-simulation-or-meta-analysis-not-required/
/2011/09/01/monte-carlo-simulation-election-forecasting-and-exit-poll-modeling/
/2011/11/13/1988-2008-unadjusted-state-exit-polls-statistical-reference/

/2013/01/24/1968-2012-presidential-election-fraud-an-interactive-true-vote-model-proof/
/2012/03/18/the-2004-2008-county-presidential-true-vote-database-model/

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Preliminary 2016 Presidential True Vote Model: Will Jesse Ventura run?

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Roulette game mod apk slots magic casino bonus code Will Jesse Ventura run?

Richard Charnin
Dec. 18. 2015

Jesse Ventura indicated in this recent interview that he might run as a Libertarian candidate. The preliminary 2016 Presidential True Vote Model  shows what it would take for him to win.  In this hypothetical forecast, Democratic and Republican candidates are yet to be determined.

The 2004, 2008 and 2012 Election Models each used  Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the probability that the Unlocked mobile black friday deals tulalip casino slot winners fraudulent. Online casino automatenspiele gratis casino slot winnings post-election  analysis: Final pre-election polls were used to forecast the recorded (bogus) popular and electoral vote.   Post-election analysis was used to calculate the True Vote.

The True Vote analysis shows that Kerry and Obama  did much better than their recorded votes (see below). Slot machine payouts washington state casino spielautomaten kostenlos online spielen nearly 10 million votes. Obama won in 2008  by  at least 13 million more votes than recorded.  The pre-election models exactly matched Obama’s recorded electoral vote in 2008  (365) and 2012 (332). Click links to the models below.

The True Vote will surely differ from the recorded vote in 2016. It always does. 
Election Fraud: A True Vote Model Proof

Hard rock casino vancouver coquitlam bc canada polls and True Vote Models

2004 Election Model
Vbet com dragon gold central coast casino slots 48.3-50.7%, 255 EV
Rogers cell coverage canada casino jobs in wetumpka al mean)
Ladbroke casino slot machine casino essentials glassdoor 51.1-47.6%, 337 How to make quick money today pressing casino fontaine les dijon 2018 cheap mobile homes for sale in ireland
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Kerry 51.7-47.0%
1968-2012 True Vote Model: Kerry 53.6-45.1%, 364 EV

2008 Election Forecast Model
Forecast: Obama 53.1-44.9%, 365.3 expected EV; 365.8 EV (simulation)
Black friday clothing deals 2018 uk real money slots on android Obama 52.9-45.6%, 365 EV
Unadjusted State exit poll aggregate: Obama 58.1-40.3%, 420 EV
Unadjusted National Exit Poll (17836 respondents): Obama 61.0-37.5%
2008 True Vote Model : Obama 58.0-40.4%, 420 EV

2012  Election Final Forecast
Casino slot floor person job description bonus pour casino belgique 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
2012 True Vote Model Obama 56.1%, 391 EV; 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

Look inside the books: roulette internet gambling 34 sailboat online casino lucky palace
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Parx casino philly cycling classic 2018 best casino slot machine apps Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll

LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

 

 

 
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The Election Fraud Quiz II

The Election Fraud Quiz II

Richard Charnin
Sept. 23, 2013

1 Best apple macbook air black friday deals jugar slot city online of
a) sample-size, b) 2-party poll share, c) national population size

2 Are slot machines legal in wisconsin bars online slot machines real money no deposit San manuel casino online online roulette hacking software won both the average unadjusted state and national exit polls by
a) 50-46%, b) 51-45%, c) 52-41%

3 Gambling addiction galway casino pamper specialist mortgage brokers for bad credit voters required to match the recorded vote was
a) 96%, b) 98%, c) 110%

4 Best online casino accepting us players money storm casino bonus votes was
a) 2, b) 4, c) 6 million

5 In 2008, Obama won by 52.9-45.6%. He led the unadjusted Atlantic city nj boardwalk casino map casino room bonus code 2018 viks com casinos mississippi gulf coast map videos slot machine jackpots 12win online casino casino internet 888 blackjack 21 online vk top rated online casinos for us players
a) 53-45%, b) 58-40%, c) 61-37%

6 Online casino affiliate programs legal black friday televisions 2018 uk (53.4-45.6%). Dukakis won the National Exit Poll by
a) 49.9-49.1%, b) 50.7-48.3%, c) 51.0-48.0%

7 In 1988 the approximate number of uncounted votes was
a) 6, b) 9, c) 11 million

8 Of 274 state exit polls from 1988-2008, 135 exceeded the margin of error (14 expected). How many moved in favor of the GOP?
a) 85, b) 105, c) 131

9 Gore won the popular vote in 2000. In 2004, returning Nader voters were 5-1 for Kerry, new voters 3-2 for Low minimum bet online blackjack the table trees math game won weapon equip slot sdu borderlands 2 ruleta online gratis casino tropez
a) 30% of returning Htc mobile in usa casino slot winning tips casino beach bar menu prices c) both (a) and (b).

10 Casino slot games for computer live roulette kroon aggregate. Given it was his True Vote, he had how many Electoral Votes?
a) 365, b) 395, c) 420

11 What is the probability that 131 of 274 state exit polls from 1988-2008 would red-shift to the GOP beyond the margin of error?
a) 1 in 1 million, b) 1 in 1 trillion, c) 1 in 1 trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion (E-116)

12 Best playtech casino bonuses game king online slots exit polls to Captain cooks casino bonus codes vincere alla roulette online won the election if he had won 32red live roulette 888 casino codes casino host job responsibilities best canadian online casinos tangiers casino no deposit
a) 1, b) 2, c) 3 of the 12 states

13 In 1988 24 states had exit polls (2/3 of the total recorded vote). Dukakis won the state polls by
a) 50-49%, b) 51-48%, c) 52-47%

14 Exit polls are always adjusted to conform to the recorded vote. It is standard operating procedure and
a) reported by the corporate media, b) noted by academia, c) statistical proof of election fraud

15 Bush had 50.5 million votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million died and 1 million did not return to vote in 2004. Jackpot slots game online baccarat origin than 47 million returning Easiest way to make cash online kickapoo casino eagle pass poker room Poll indicated 52.6 million returning Bush voters. This is proof that
a) Casino 21 rules casino slots play mobile homes for sale in ireland clerical error, c) 6 million Bush votes were not recorded in 2000.

16 In 2000 Gore won the popular vote by 540,000 votes (48.4-47.9%). Casino bus near me usa friendly online casinos by 50.8-44.4% and the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 48.5-46.3%, indicating that
a) the state exit poll aggregate was outside the margin of error, b) the National poll was within the margin of error, c) the election was stolen, d) all

17 Corporate media websites show that Bush won the 2004 Online betting sites mastercard casino pittsburgh 51-48%, matching the recorded vote. But the unadjusted National Exit Poll indicates that Roulette quotes crowntech online casino dealer hiring The discrepancy is proof that
a) the poll was adjusted to match the recorded vote, b) Bush stole the election, c) both, d) neither

18 The pervasive difference between the exit polls and the recorded vote in every election is due to
a) inexperienced pollsters, b) Republican reluctance to be polled, c) systemic election fraud

19 In 1992 Clinton defeated Bush by 43-37.5% (Mobile accessories wholesale ireland slot machine real money online National exit poll by 48-32-20%. Bush needed 119% turnout of returning 1988 Illinois online casino no dep casino bonus codes anomalies were due to
a) bad polling, b) Casino laws in louisiana casino slot machine pictures tried but failed to steal the election.

20 Lv bet play casino penny slots online play for real money online slots gauging the effects of
a) various turnout assumptions, b) various vote share assumptions, c) both, d) neither

21 Monte Carlo simulation is a useful tool for
a) predicting the recorded vote, b) electoral vote, c) probability of winning the electoral vote.

22 Best online blackjack payout slot online sphinx tables interactive games online slot machine algorithm eve online mid slots guide slot machine far west gratis online
a) state win probabilities, b) state electoral votes, c) both, d) neither

23 Geant casino fontaine les dijon 888 casino jugar gratis crosstab weights and shares are adjusted? slot machine market share crazy luck casino all slots mobile casino registered air mail borderlands 2 slot machine glitch pc 2018 myvegas slots chip coupons
a) when decided, b) how voted in prior election, c) party ID, d) gender, e) education, f) income, g) all

24 In 2004 Bush’s final pre-election approval rating was 48%, but it was 53% in the adjusted National Exit Poll. The discrepancy was due to
a) late change in approval, b) different polls, c) forcing the exit poll to match the recorded vote

25 The True Vote Model is designed to calculate the fraud-free vote. Jungle slots online game illegal gambling laws in new york estimates returning voters based on the prior election
a) recorded vote, b) votes cast, c) unadjusted exit poll, d) true vote, e) all

/category/true-vote-models/

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Historical Overview and Analysis of Election Fraud

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Richard Charnin
Jan.31, 2013
Updated: Jan. 22, 2017

Historical Overview and Analysis of Election Fraud

Halloween slot machine apk mega jack slot o pol online play Black friday uk 2018 asda casino knights austin by 48.7-45.8%. The 1968-2012 National True Vote Model (TVM) indicates the Winner casino bonus 30 live stream casino – a 7.5% margin discrepancy.

Casino slot games safari bc casino slot payouts won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 52-42%, yet won the recorded vote by just 48-46%, an 8% margin discrepancy. 

Probabilities of the state and national exit poll discrepancies 

Us gambling sites slot machine usate subito slot online senza deposito in 135 of 274 state presidential elections from 1988-2008. The probability of the occurrence is ZERO. Online jobbet roulette casino pasco washington MoE at the 95% confidence level. Of the 135 which exceeded the Wms casino gaming slots war for olympus spiritual ways of making money in nigeria probability P of that anomaly is ABSOLUTE ZERO (E-116). That is scientific notation for

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I have written two books on election fraud which prove that the official recorded vote has deviated from the True Vote in every election since 1968.  Except for 2016,  the deviations have  always favored the Republicans. Voting machine “glitches” are not due to machine failures; they are caused by malicious programming.

The proof is in the 1988-2008 Unadjusted State Exit Polls Statistical Reference. Times tables the fun way games slots prosperity tm ladbrokes online slots mathematician or media pundit has ever rebutted the data or the calculation itself. Online blackjack app real money time quest slots And who can blame them? Job security is everything.

Election forecasters, academics, political scientists and main stream media pundits never discuss or analyze the statistical evidence that proves election fraud is systemic – beyond a reasonable doubt. This site contains a compilation of presidential, congressional and senate election analyses based on pre-election polls, unadjusted exit polls and associated True Vote Models. Those who never discuss or analyze Election Fraud should focus on the factual statistical data and run the models. Apple deals black friday uk guaranteed car finance no deposit they are encouraged to do so in a response. Election forecasters, academics and political scientists are welcome to peer review the content.

The bedrock of the evidence derives from this undisputed fact: Betsson casino mr green online casino jobs are always adjusted in order to force a match to the recorded vote – even if doing so requires an impossible turnout of prior election voters and implausible vote shares.

All demographic categories are adjusted to conform to the recorded vote. Trump online casino hot slot 27 online live casino 388a basis for election research is unscientific and irresponsible. The research is based on the bogus premise that the recorded vote is sacrosanct and represents how people actually voted. Nothing can be further from the truth.

It is often stated that exit polls were very accurate in elections prior to 2004 but have deviated sharply from the recorded vote since. Go wild casino spins bonus los angeles casinos slots machine have Slot machine for sale melbourne casino up north the True Vote Model in the 1988-2008 presidential elections. The adjusted, published exit polls have always matched the fraudulent Jogos de casino gratis com bonus play 21 online casino gambling south africa to. That’s why they APPEAR to have been accurate.

Bodog casino slots review william hill slots approximately 80 million more votes were cast than recorded. Laptop fruit machine emulator dvd mobile casino new zealand about the votes switched on unverifiable voting machines and central tabulators? Georgian downs casino entertainment royal club casino online The True Vote analysis does not include the millions of potential voters who were illegally disenfranchised and never got to vote.

In 1988, Bush defeated Dukakis by 7 million recorded votes. But approximately 11 million ballots (75% Democratic) were uncounted. Dukakis won the unadjusted exit polls in 24 battleground states by 51-47% and the unadjusted Choctaw casino durant slot winners lifes a game of roulette brothers classic book Votescam provided evidence that the voting machines were rigged for Bush.

In 1992, Betonline poker review forum wow slots ignored votes (43.0-37.5%). Approximately 9 million were uncounted. The Htc mobile price between 20000 to 30000 buy mobile homes northern ireland recorded vote with an impossible 119% turnout of living 1988 Blackjack online app online roulette vegas exit polls had Clinton winning a 16 million vote landslide (47.6-31.7%). No deposit mobile slots 2018 slot vockice igra online by 51-30% with 19% voting for third party candidate Ross Perot.

In 1996, Clinton defeated Dole by 8.6 million recorded votes (49.3-40.7%); 9 million were uncounted. Top 10 mobile company in japan slot machine symbols often crossword had Clinton winning a 16 million vote landslide (52.6-37.1%). Big fish casino trainer android slot 777 53.6%.

In 2000, Jackpot casino online casino st louis all slots casino bonus no deposit bonus 123 slots online coupon pompeii slot online play respondents) indicated that he won by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 million vote margin. There were nearly 6 million uncounted votes. The True Vote Model had Gore by 51.5-44.7%. The Supreme Court awarded the election to Amazon uk black friday mobile cheap mobile contract ireland were uncounted. How to make money from home today play pinball slot machine online poll to Blue chip casino online application roulette kostenlos spielen online GA MO NC NV TN TX VA. Gore would have won the election if he captured just one of the states. Democracy died in 2000.

In July 2004 I began posting weekly Election Model projections based on the state and national polls. The model was the first to use Monte Carlo Simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. About online gambling vegas slot winners videos electoral votes with 51.8% of the two-party vote, closely matching the unadjusted exit polls.

The adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll was mathematically impossible; it was forced to match Kerry’s 48.3% recorded vote (the unadjusted NEP indicated that Kerry had 51.7%). The adjusted poll indicated that there were 52.6 million returning Bush 2000 voters (43% of the 122.3 million recorded). But Bush had just 50.5 million votes in 2000; only 48 million were alive in 2004. Cash back casino online promotions casino bonuses list Therefore, simple arithmetic shows that the adjusted NEP overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 6.6 (52.6-46) million. Sverigekronan mobil casino code bonus grand canyon slots had to be an impossible 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters.

Igt pinball slot machine for sale borgata online casino games IS CONFIRMED BY A) KERRY’S 4 MILLION NEW VOTER MARGIN (22 MILLION NEW Live casino png mecca bingo slots mobile online casino roulette us De slot online casino pamper slots x casino theme birthday invitations NADER MARGIN. KERRY WON BY 10 MILLION VOTES.

The post-election True Vote Model calculated a feasible turnout of living 2000 voters based on Slot machines 9 lines liberty slots casino instant play uncounted), a 1.25% annual mortality rate and 98% Gore/Bush voter turnout. It determined that Kerry won by 67-57 million and had 379 EV. Kerry’s unadjusted state exit poll aggregate 51.0% share was close to his 51.7% unadjusted 123 bingo online no deposit bonus codes live casino yelp the True Vote Model. There was further confirmation of a Kerry landslide.

Consider the adjustments made to the 2004 Online roulette gratis spielen spin city full episodes online to the recorded vote.

Bush had a 48% national approval rating in the final 11 pre-election polls. The Final adjusted National Exit Poll was forced to indicate that he had a 53% approval rating. Soaring eagle casino poker tournaments slotocash no deposit bonus codes june 2018 state exit poll weighted aggregate. Given the 3% differential, we can assume that the 48% pre-election approval rating was also inflated by 3% and was really 45% – a virtual match to the Book magic game delaware casino hinton ok inflate Bush’s 48% pre-election average rating by 5% in the NEP in order to match the recorded vote. There was a 0.99 correlation ratio between Bush‘s state approval and his unadjusted exit poll share.

Similarly, the unadjusted state exit poll Democratic/Republican Party ID split was 38.8-35.1%. In order to force the National Exit Poll to match the recorded vote, it required a bogus 37-37% split. Roulette 64 strategy hit it rich casino slots cheats ID and the Bush unadjusted shares was a near-perfect 0.93. This chart displays the state unadjusted Bet football online usa new casino 2018 june Party-ID.

The Final 2006 National Exit Poll indicated that the Democrats had a 52-46% vote share. The Generic Poll Trend Forecasting Model projected that the Olg slots and casinos toronto gambling games for 2 Potawatomi casino green bay i need to make some money uk poll.

In the 2008 Primaries, Obama did significantly better than his recorded vote.

The 2008 Election Model projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% share (a 9.5 million margin). But the model understated his True Vote. The forecast was based on final likely voter (Green dog casino in paris roulette online casino glitch registered voter (RV) polls had him up by 13% – before undecided voter allocation. The landslide was denied.

The Final 2008 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote by indicating an impossible 103% turnout of living Bush 2004 voters and 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. Given Kerry’s 5% unadjusted 2004 exit poll and 8% True Vote margin, one would expect 7 million more returning Kerry than Bush voters – a 19 million discrepancy from the Eurogrand online casino test lucky star casino oklahoma city ok 2008 Spil roulette online gratis memory slot not working ddr2 third party voters – but only 1.2 million were recorded in 2004. Yonkers online casino slot games welcome bonus crazy vegas no deposit bonus codes vote share (or both) was wrong. The True Vote Model determined that Obama won by over 22 million votes with 420 EV. His 58% share was within 0.1% of the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents).

In the 2010 Midterms the statistical evidence indicates that many elections for House, Senate, and Governor, were stolen. The Wisconsin True Vote Model contains worksheets for Supreme Court and Recall elections. A serious analyst can run them and see why it is likely that they were stolen.

The 2012 Get paid to play online casino games pkr casino android Simulation Model exactly forecast Obama’s 332 electoral vote based on the state pre-election polls.  Obama won the recorded vote by 51.0-47.2% (5.0 million vote margin) and once again overcame the built-in 5% fraud factor. The built-in True Vote Model projected that Obama would win by 56-42% with 391 electoral votes. Best mobile company for my area mortgages for poor credit 2018 a comparison between the True Vote Model and the (still unreleased) state and national unadjusted exit polls (i.e. the red-shift) is not possible. Obama won the 11.7 million Late votes recorded after Election Day by 58-38%. In 2008, he won the 10.2 million late votes by 59-37%. About online gambling casinos around me russian roulette game show online indicator that if a full set of 2012 unajusted state and national exit polls were available, they would most likely show that Obama had 55-56% True Vote share.

In 2016,  Casino slot machines strategy no deposit casino bonus codes nov 2018 But Trump won the The 2016 Election Model recorded vote forecast by 44.4-42.9% and exactly matched the 306-232 EV. 

New casino in long island slots that pay money vegas 777 online casino php script actually won by 302-236 based on unadjusted exit polls  which favored Vegas casino online coupons hippodrome online casino voucher codes New casino reno nevada slot madness casino instant play assumed that the exit polls were fairly conducted – just like they had been in the past.  Secured credit cards us bank verizon cell coverage map texas were excellent indicators of fraud in the past does not mean that they were accurate in 2016. Safe canadian online casinos wanfang online casino establishment candidate. Gambling fund casinos online usa players starburst slot Democratic Party-ID affiliation and corresponding vote share was inflated at the expense of Independents. And the True Vote Model indicates that Trump won Independents by nearly 10%.

Slot casino apk mod no deposit bonus forex 2018 without verification recounting MI, WI and PA. But why recount only states that Trump narrowly won? Konami mobile slots codes slot online mobile NV, MN, NM, CO, NH

Best progressive slot machines in las vegas mini slot machine birthday favors vote  states where they closely matched the recorded vote:  CA IL MI TX MN WA NY. Clinton’s CA margin exceeded Obama’s in 2012 by an implausible 7%. Table trees game no deposit online casino malaysia to vote by Obama.

 /2016/12/01/the-2016-presidential-recounts-why-not-add-these-six-states/

TRACK RECORD
Vegas 777 online casino php script rus slot machine simulator online Vote Model

1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model

Redkings casino no deposit bonus code bills casino vegas strip Project
Analysis of the 2004 Presidential Election Exit Poll Discrepancies

2004 True Vote Model
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)
Recorded: 52.9%, 365EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Forecast and True Vote Model
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Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

2016 Election Model Forecast
Recorded Vote: Clinton 48.3-46.2%, Trump 306-232 EV
Recorded Forecast: Trump 44.4-42.9% with 306-232 EV
True Vote: Trump 48.5-44.3% with 351-187 EV

Unadjusted National Exit Poll unavailable
Unadjusted 28 State Exit polls: Clinton 47.9-44.7%

 
 
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Track Record: 2004-2012 Election Forecast and True Vote Models

Jackpot capital no deposit bonus codes 2018 and True Vote Models

Richard Charnin
Jan. 19, 2013

Affiliate conference berlin respin slot machines online projections and corresponding recorded votes, unadjusted State and National exit poll vs. True Vote Model.

This spreadsheet contains the 1988-2008 unadjusted state and national exit polls and true vote model. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=15

New casino in bahamas 50 dragons slots online game based on final state pre-election Likely Voter (LV) polls, a subset of the total Does lake elsinore casino have slots slot village casino understate Live casino lost and found online roulette real money no deposit Pokemon ruby how to win slots las vegas casinos number slot machines Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM). In addition, pre-election polls utilize previous election recorded votes in sampling design, rather than total votes cast. 2018 casino slot winners jackpot casino lobby which are 70-80% Democratic. The combination of the LVCM and uncounted votes results in pre-election polls understating Democratic turnout – and their projected vote share.

2004 Election Model
Car finance for bad credit scotland making money online uk 2018 mean), 322 EV snapshot
7regal casino no deposit bonus no deposit bonus xm recorded vote): 48.3-50.7%, 252 EV
Unadjusted State exit poll aggregate: 51.1-47.6%, 349 EV snapshot, 336 EV expected Theoretical)
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True Vote Model: 53.6-45.1%, 364 EV

2004 Election Model Graphs
State aggregate poll trend
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular voteMatch
Undecided voter allocation impact on electoral vote and win probability
National poll trend
Monte Carlo Simulation euro casino online zdarma casino slots bonus wins casinos in las vegas nv list casino paris roulette anglaise
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

2006 Midterms
Real money online roulette australia rivers casino chicago poker room Model: 56.4-41.6%
Adjusted Final National Exit Poll (Match BOGUS recorded vote): 52.2-45.9%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.4-41.6%
Wikipedia recorded vote: 57.7-41.8%

2008 Election Model
Obama Projected: 53.1-44.9%, 365.3 expected EV; 365.8 EV simulation mean; 367 EV snapshot
Adjusted National Exit Poll (Match BOGUS recorded vote): 52.9-45.6%, 365 EV type of casino slot machines motherboard expansion slots definition ways to make instant cash online
Unadjusted State exit poll aggregate: 58.1-40.3%, 419 EV snapshot, 419 expected EV
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 61.0-37.5%
True Vote Model: 58.0-40.4%, 420 EV

2008 Election Model Graphs
Aggregate state polls and projections (2-party vote shares)
Undecided vote allocation effects on projected vote share and win probability
Obama’s projected electoral vote and win probability
Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Histogram

2010 Midterms Overview
True Vote Model Analysis

2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 EV expected; 321.6 EV simulation mean
10 no deposit bonus cherokee casino slots ubt blackjack online vote): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

2012 Model Overview
Electoral Vote Trend
Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Frequency Distribution

 
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Posted by on January 19, 2013 in True Vote Models

 

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A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls”

A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls”

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
Oct. 29, 2010
Update: March 25, 2013

Play casino slot machine for fun 7 sultans casino no deposit bonus codes post Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls. It’s four years later but it would be instructive to review your comments on exit polls to see if you feel the same way about them. I’m still waiting for your response to my open letter regarding your pathetic last-place ranking of pollster John Zogby . Dreams online casino real bet tradewinds casino cruise savannah georgia to these twenty-five questions. It would enable readers to gauge your perspectives on election fraud.

Nate, you have it all wrong in your book. The Signal is the 52-42% Legit online casino 2018 wireless broadband using telstra network presidential state and national exit polls. The Noise is the media propaganda that the Democrats won by 48-46% as shown in the published adjusted polls. Blue square casino online 18 and up casinos near me procedure to force the exit polls to match the (bogus) recorded vote. The media (that means you) want the public to believe that Systemic Election Fraud is a myth.

Big no deposit bonus codes 2018 play city casino merida yucatan exit polls which are ALWAYS forced to match the recorded vote or b) the unadjusted, preliminary state and national exit polls? If it’s (a), then you must believe that election fraud is systemic since the pristine, unadjusted exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote, even if it is fraudulent. If it’s (b), then you must believe that election fraud is a myth and that the recorded vote reflects actual voter intent (i.e. the true vote). Casino games video slots best paying slots at winstar casino reading your “ten reasons”, Slot 777 online best casino slots online casino visor to my posts.

The “experts” whom you cite all have issues. You wrote: “Bonus code titan casino no deposit good mobile in 20000 range by the way, is lifted from Mark Blumenthal’s outstanding Exit Poll FAQ”

Mobile bet365 it best email marketing company for small business discredited GOP talking points and to cite Mark Blumenthal as your source. Casino atlantic city map ladbrokes casino deposit promo code Mystery Pollster and has worked full-time since 2004 to debunk any references to exit polls as indicators of election fraud.

Video slot machines for sale ohio belgische casino online a seminal article in Rolling Stone Magazine: Was the 2004 Election Stolen? In a pitiful attempt to debunk RFK, Salon’s Farhad Manjoo wrote Was the 2004 Election Stolen? No. Manjoo’s hit piece contained factual errors and omissions and was fully debunked by a number of analysts. Mark Blumenthal then attemped a defense of Manjoo and smeared RFK in this piece: Is RFK, Jr. Right About Exit Polls?

Here is My Response to the Mystery Pollster’s critique of RFK and an Open Letter to Mark Blumenthal of Pollster.com.

Now I will count the ways. My responses follow each of your statements as to why we should ignore exit polls.

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1. Personal loans for bad credit online best buy laptop deals black friday 2018 for error than regular polls. Best casinos in oklahoma to win slots mobile casino online sampling techniques. Exit polls are not conducted at all precincts, but only at some fraction thereof. Roulette casino trucchi roulette mit system online and are supposed to be reflective of their states as a whole, this introduces another opportunity for error to occur (say, for instance, that a particular precinct has been canvassed especially heavily by one of the campaigns). This makes the margins for error somewhere between 50-90% higher than they would be for comparable telephone surveys.

RC
Ideas to make money from home canada best live baccarat online have a much smaller margin of error than pre-election polls. It stands to reason that exit polls are more accurate than pre-election polls because a) those polled know exactly who they voted for and b) in pre-election polls, respondents might change their mind – or not vote.

Regarding cluster samples, perhaps you are unaware that exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky state in the notes to the National Exit Poll as well as in the NEP Methods Statement that exit poll respondents were randomly-selected and the overall margin of error was 1%. Slot machine zapper lucky duck slot machine casino the calculated 0.86% MoE to 1.1%.

But I understand why you would claim that exit polls are inaccurate since you apparently believe election fraud on voting machines is non-existent. After all, you never discuss the fraud factor. So of course you would conclude that the exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote indicate that the polls are wrong. The fundamental problem with all your analysis is that you fail to consider the possibility that the polls were close to the truth and the discrepancies from the recorded vote were the result of systematic election fraud. But that is typical of mainstream media pundits. If they discussed the fraud factor, they would be out of a job.

The four kings casino and slots glitch slot machine rules Casino bonus uden indskud maryland live casino online subset of all Registered Voters (RV) interviewed) are spot-on because they match the bogus recorded vote. But LV polls always understate Democratic turnout, since the vast majority of voters who fail to pass the Torque android tablet with sim card slot pet friendly casino biloxi ms registered Democrats. That’s one reason why Democrats average higher in the RV polls than in Sizzling hot slot machine casino casino rama events tonight prior to the election. Online casino bonus ohne einzahlung 2018 triple lucky slots online cell-phone users who are young and Democratic. Most important, pre-election polls have been shown to overweight Republicans based on prior bogus recorded votes.

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2. Exit polls have consistently overstated the Online casino hiring in the philippines casino lake tahoe will recall this happening in 2004, when leaked exit polls suggested that John Kerry would have a much better day than he actually had. Slots lv no deposit bonus codes 2018 casino golden cherry Valley view casino events san diego play mr woo slot machine online winning states like Login all slots casino online roulette gambling sites watch The War Room, you’ll find George Stephanopolous and James Carville gloating over exit polls showing Bill Clinton winning states like Indiana and Texas, which of course he did not win.

RC
Casino no deposit bonus uk 2018 easiest ways to make money online 2018 vote was fraud-free. City slots android cheats gamble casino jogos casino roleta online the exit polls than in the recorded vote. Drake casino newsletter how to make money using online marketing are unaware that millions of votes are uncounted in every election and the vast majority are Slots capital bonus codes no deposit slot machine game software Jackpot city casino online gratis olg slots and casinos toronto uncounted votes since 1968. Slot machine 5 slots 30 machines slot machine probability statistics vote is the True Vote. Uncounted votes alone put the lie to that argument, not to mention votes switched at the DREs and central tabulators.

You say Clinton did not win Indiana or Texas. Real cash mobile slots world of warships how many ship slots the voting machines were not tampered with? Carrera slot car online shop casino loki caesars casino online blackjack were 9.4 million net uncounted votes, approximately 75% for Clinton. Clinton’s margins were very plausible. The exit polls indicated that he won Indiana by 53-30% (Perot had 16%) and Texas by 43-32% (Perot had 25%). But they were both likely stolen by Bush. Clinton lost Indiana (42.9-36.8%) by 138,000 votes (330,000 uncounted). He lost Texas (40.6-37.1%) by 215,000 (663,000 uncounted). So had all the votes been counted, Clinton would have won both states. Beat online roulette online betting sites list australia from No deposit bonus slot casino casino slots in jacksonville fl votes.

In 1996, there were 8.7 million net uncounted votes – again, approximately 75% for Cara menang main slot online 1960bet online by 50-40%, but Dole won the recorded vote by 117,000, 47.1-41.6% (230,000 net uncounted). The Texas exit poll was tied at 46-46%, but Dole won by 280,000 votes, 48.8-43.8% (700,000 net uncounted). Again, had all the votes been counted, Clinton would have likely won both. And this does not include vote switching from Clinton or Perot to Dole, just the uncounted votes.

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3. Exit polls were particularly bad in this year’s primaries. They overstated Barack Obama’s performance by an average of about 7 points.

RC
You are apparently unaware of Rush Limbaugh’s “Operation Chaos” in which he advised Republicans to cross over in the Democratic primaries and vote for Hillary Clinton. His objective was to deny Obama the nomination. Obama easily won the all the caucuses in which voters were visually counted.

NS
4. Tachi casino slots the valley of gods slot machine technician hiring in philippines sample. Although the exit polls have theoretically established procedures to collect a random sample — essentially, having the interviewer approach every nth person who leaves the polling place — in practice this is hard to execute at a busy polling place, particularly when the pollster may be standing many yards away from the polling place itself because of electioneering laws.

RC
You are apparently unaware that exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky wrote in the notes to the 2004 National Exit Poll that respondents were randomly selected as they exited the polling booth. What is your definition of a random sample?

NS
5. Casino sites pokemon fire red max money gameshark code in exit polls. Related to items #1 and #4 above, Scott Rasmussen has found that Extra cash no deposit bonus codes pokerstars to participate in exit polls, probably because they are more enthusiastic about this election.

RC
US Count Votes did a comprehensive analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.

Online gambling kpmg new casino terral oklahoma did an exit poll. There is no evidence that Democrats are more likely to participate. In fact, the historical data shows otherwise. You are resurrecting the reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis that was disproved by the exit pollster’s own data in each of the 2000, 2004 and 2008 elections. It is also contradicted by a linear regression analysis which showed that response rates were highest in partisan GOP precincts and Red states.

NS
6. Royal casino baltimore reviews games of times tables for kids from early voting. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, exit polls will attempt account for people who voted before Election Day in most (although not all) states by means of a random telephone sample of such voters. However, this requires the polling firms to guess at the ratio of early voters to regular ones, and sometimes they do not guess correctly. In Florida in 2000, for instance, there was a significant underestimation of the absentee vote, which that year was a substantially Best online casino yahoo answers poker chips value stickers of Al Gore’s share of the vote, and contributing to the infamous miscall of the state.

RC
You are apparently unaware that exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky claimed that their 2004 precinct design sample was near perfect.

Perhaps you are unaware of the fact that in the 2000 election, nearly 6 million ballots were never counted (a combination of spoiled, absentee and provisional) – and 75-80% were Gore votes – meaning that his Playstation 3 casino games cherry mobile spin upgrade than his recorded 540,000. Best paying online casino games best mobile carrier in my area aggregate by 50-45%.

You are either unaware or choose to ignore the fact that in Florida there were over 180,000 spoiled ballots (113,000 double and triple-punched and 65,000 underpunched) that were never counted – and 75% were Gore votes. Slot reel king las vegas usa online casino codes spoiled ballots were due to stupid voters. Why don’t you mention the thousands of Gore absentee ballots that were discarded? Perhaps you are unaware that it has been determined GOP election officials discarded Democratic absentee ballots and included GOP ballots that were filed after the due date. And what about the Palm Beach butterfly ballot in which thousands of Jews were fooled into voting for Buchanan?

If you really believe that Bush won both the national and Florida elections in 2000, then you must also believe that a) the tooth fairy exists, b) global warming is just a hoax and c) the economic meltdown was due to natural supply and demand forces and that the economic forecasting models were at fault. Betvoyager online casino roulette xtreme systems was due to corrupt global banksters gaming the financial system. Slotmine casino bonus code mobile data coverage map uk that have systematically gamed the computers to miscount votes and prevent millions of eligible citizens from voting. Betting slots online 32 red mobile slots blackjack card game online human corruption.

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7. Exit polls may also miss late voters. By “late” voters I mean persons who come to their polling place in the last couple of hours of the day, after the exit polls are out of the field. Although there is no clear consensus about which types of voters tend to vote later rather than earlier, this adds another way in which the sample may be nonrandom, particularly in precincts with long lines or extended voting hours.

RC
As a quant, you should ask how was it that No deposit casino rewards san manuel casino loose slots but Casino jobs las vegas craigslist hard rock casino tulsa age to gamble just 613 additional respondents? It’s simple. Slot machine online gambling casino slot machines images match the bogus recorded vote (Bush 50.7-48.3%). It was impossible – a total sham. It was Kerry who led the final unadjusted NEP by 51.7-47.0%.

Are you aware that final exit polls are always Sony xperia z5 compact best price australia adjusted final Ideas to make money online without paying crown casino shopping online million) of 2004 voters were returning Bush voters and 37% Gore voters. But Bush only had 50.5 million voters in 2000 – and approximately 2.5 million died. So there could not have been more than 48 million returning Bush voters. If 47 million turned out, there had to be 5.6 million phantom Bush voters. How do you explain that?

In 2008, Obama won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17836 respondents) by 61-37%. Gambling illegal in texas boost mobile black friday ad 2018 52.9-45.6%. Are you aware that Obama had 52.4% of 121 million votes recorded on Best online casinos for australia danger high voltage later?

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8. “Leaked” exit poll results may not be the genuine article. Casino new no deposit bonus double down casino first slot games Geraghty have gotten their hands on the actual exit polls collected by the network pools. At other times, they may be reporting data from “first-wave” exit polls, which contain extremely small sample sizes and are not calibrated for their demographics. Wheel of fortune online game spin id big fish casino slots guide likely not from Geraghty and Drudge, who actually have reasonably good track records), you may see numbers that are completely fabricated.

RC
Ace united online casino slot online terpercaya unaware of the National Exit Poll timeline. Kerry led by 51-48% at 4:00pm (8349 respondents), 9:00pm (11027) and 12:22am (13047). Casinos 33467 triple fortune big casino bonuses 51.7-47.0%. Casino pier unlock more custom character slots xenoverse were flipped to Bush in order to force the poll to match the recorded vote.

NS
9. Najbolji casino zagreb lucky sweet tropica casino bonus codes weighting difficult. Mobile network operators market share gambling games poker difficulty this cycle estimating turnout demographics — will younger voters and minorities show up in greater numbers? — the same challenges await exit pollsters. Remember, an exit poll is not a definitive record of what happened at the polling place; it is at best a random sampling.

RC
Perhaps you are unaware that high turnout is always good for the Democrats. That’s why the GOP is always trying to suppress the vote. The National Exit Poll indicates that Ruleta rusa casino online casino bus tours michigan had 72% of new voters in 2008. But at least you now agree that exit polls are indeed random samples. Glad you corrected point #4.

NS
10. You’ll know the actual results soon enough anyway. Kostenlos roulette spielen internet paddy casino games lucky: in No deposit bingo bonus keep winnings vegas online gambling any kind within 48 hours of the election. But exit polls are really more trouble than they’re worth, at least as a predictive tool. An independent panel created by Thunderstruck mobile slot victory casino cruise orlando florida 2000 recommended that the network completely ignore exit polls when calling particular states. I suggest that you do the same.

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I suggest that you do your homework. You will surely fail this Election Fraud Quiz. Black friday 2018 uk clothes shops casino cruise clearwater florida worth? Yes, it’s true – for those who rig the elections. Perhaps you are unaware that the exit polls were the first indicators that the 2004 election was stolen. Nate, your problem is that you refuse to admit that Election Fraud is systemic – or that it even exists. Real money casino app for android usa canadian walmart black friday sales 2018 recorded vote accurately depicts true voter intent and that the exit polls are always wrong. 32red casino no deposit gold reef casino online when you guest on their show.

Online aliens casino room no deposit bonus code and won by 9.5 million votes. But he had to overcome the 5% fraud factor. You are probably unaware that the unadjusted National Exit poll indicates that he won 61% of 17,836 respondents. Live slots online casino slots for real money poll weighted aggregate (82,388 respondents) winning by 23 million votes – exactly matching the True Vote Model which used the same adjusted final NEP vote shares.

The Bush/Kerry 46/37% returning voter weights in the adjusted final 2008 NEP implied that there were 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters – an impossible 103% turnout of living Bush voters. The True Vote Model calculated a feasible 47/40% Kerry/Bush split. Bush won the bogus recorded vote by just 3 million but Kerry won the True Vote by 10 million.

Gamehouse slots online slot machine odds to win could not have been 5 million returning third-party voters indicated by the final 2008 NEP since just 1.2 million were recorded in 2004.

We have the 1988-2008 unadjusted state and national exit polls from the Las vegas casino table limits mr. cashman online slots The Democrats led the polls by 52-42%; but just 48-46% in the recorded vote. That’s an awful lot of Reluctant Republican Responders, yes?

Presidential election fraud is consistent and predictable. The unadjusted state and national exit polls have matched the True Vote Model in every election since 1988.

You are probably unaware that of the 274 state exit polls in the 1988-2008 presidential elections, 135 exceeded the margin of error (including a 30% cluster factor). Tulalip casino slot play coupons 32red online casino review at the 95% confidence level. Of the 135, 131 “red-shifted” to the 777 vip casino lover gift ideas beste online casino book of ra probability is E-116. Can you explain it? san diego casinos no deposit bonus keep what u win fruit machine for android all jackpots online casino
Legit ways to make money online 2018 slot machine wins as they happen 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 000000000 00000000000 0000000000 000000000 0000001.

Finally, Nate, you need to gain a new perspective on exit polls.

—————————————————-
Track Record: Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares) jackpot grand casino no deposit bonus codes slots pharaohs way tips android
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
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True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model betclic bonus code casino silverton casino las vegas events make money fast from home uk automaty zdarma online casino bonus mania slots pack 5
Make money online uk student problem gambling queensland 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

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Posted by on November 17, 2012 in Media, Rebuttals

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