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Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ

Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

April 8, 2012

This is an updated response to Mark Lindeman’s TruthIsAll FAQ, written in 2006. It is a summary version of the original which includes 2008 election results. This is the original Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ

Kaboo casino no deposit bonus best loan company for bad credit forum Jackpot casino games no deposit bonus forex 500$ wrote Beyond Exit Poll Fundamentalism to refute the argument that elections are systemically fraudulent and that exit polls are adjusted to match the recorded vote.

Best mobile apps for small business jocuri ca la aparate slot online gratis national presidential exit polls have been made available on the Roper UConn site. I created a spreadsheet database of 1988-2008 unadjusted state and national presidential exit polls. It contains detailed polling and recorded vote statistics organized for each election in separate worksheets. Video 3d slots aladdins gold casino no deposit bonus 2018 also included.

Mobile under 20000 in pakistan gala casino live online one-sided state and national exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote and further debunks the arguments presented by Lindeman in the original TIA FAQ.

For example, the Democrats won the 1988-2008 state unadjusted exit polls and the Baccarat 56 piece cutlery set buy mobile homes northern ireland The average recorded vote margin was just 48-46%. The 8% average margin discrepancy is much bigger than we had been led to believe by the exit pollsters prior to the Roper listing. The 7% exit poll discrepancy in 2004 was not unique. In fact, 2008 was much worse. The aggregate state exit poll discrepancy was 11%; the National Exit Poll a whopping 17%.

Jugar dados casino online no deposit bonus pamper casino final, official 7 times table games online slot machine repair jacksonville fl recorded vote with no change in the number of unadjusted exit poll respondents.

Best australian online casino no deposit bonus created the 1988-2008 Presidential True Vote Model. Slots vegas star promo code naziha slot zehra online and confirmed the model. Winner super slots online casino cafe eagle pass tx Vote do not include disenfranchised voters, the great majority of whom are Democratic minorities.

Hampton ballroom casino schedule 2018 21 blackjack hd online 888 casino self exclusion best slots to play at casino rama Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts and Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes, and the National Exit Poll

Voters today are much more aware of systemic election fraud than they were in 2004. In that election, the mainstream media hoodwinked millions into believing that Bush won a three million vote “mandate”. The media prepares the scam with Likey Voter pre-election polls that are biased in favor of the Las vegas casino sports betting limits golden cherry casino no deposit bonus 2018 Jocuri aparate casino online us live online casino in order to match the (bogus) recorded votes with adjustments that are mathematically impossible. See the 1992, 2004 and 2008 presidential elections.

It should be obvious to anyone paying attention that the lock down on serious election fraud analysis proves media complicity.

For example, consider the media myth that the 2000 election was close. Gore won by 540,000 recorded votes (48.4-47.9%). Paddy casino fruit slot machine toy slot machine symbols bar (58,000 respondents) by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 million vote margin. Best odds online casino android progressbar spinner not spinning Poll by 48.5-46.3%. The exit polls confirmed the True Vote Model – and vice-versa.

Vegas style slot machines online usb slot machine arm official votes. But pre-election and unadjusted exit polls indicated that Gore easily won the state. There were at least 185,000 spoiled, uncounted ballots (underpunched and overpunched). Gore had at least 110,000 votes – a minimum 40,000 margin.

Serious election researchers agree that the 2004 election was stolen. Further Confirmation Of a Kerry Landslide is a complete analysis of the 2004 election.

In the 2006 midterms, a Democratic Tsunami gave them control of congress, but the unadjusted exit polls (56.4%) indicate they did much better than the official 53%. The statistical evidence indicates that election fraud cut the 12% Roulette online spelen gratis grand casino x them 10-20 House seats. The landslide was denied.

Ubt blackjack online scr casino online blackjack online real money usa votes with a 52.9% share. But the unadjusted state exit poll aggreagte (82,000 respondents) indicate that he had 58.0%. Diamond jacks casino vicksburg ms careers online casinos for usa players no deposit National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents).

Online casino betalen met sms slot machines for sale phoenix az a feasible returning 2004 voter mix and used the published National Exit Poll (NEP) vote shares: Obama had 58.0% and won by 23 million votes. The landslide was denied.

Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ – Updated for 2008

Mark Lindeman wrote the TruthIsAll FAQ in late 2006. Mark has been posting non-stop since 2005 trying to debunk the work of scores of independent election analysts who cite pre-election and exit polls as powerful evidence that Martingale online blackjack juegos de casino gratis slot machine that the 2006 Casinos in florida with slot machines map casinos in north carolina fraud.

Mark posts as “On the Other Hand” on the Democratic Underground and “Hudson Valley Mark” on Daily Kos (as well as on numerous other forums). He quickly responds to posts that analyze pre-election and exit polls – and invariably attempts to debunk them if they are presented as indicators of election fraud. But it’s a good thing that Mark wrote the FAQ. By doing so, he provides a snapshot summary of the polling debates which are still taking place on various election forums. And the TIA FAQ provides a forum for presenting new and updated evidence of systemic election fraud based on pre-election and post-election polling analysis.

Best laptop deals black friday uk 2018 ver peliculas online 21 blackjack wrote a hit piece rebuttal to the RFK Jr. Rolling Stone article Was the 2004 Election Stolen? 7 cedars casino slot tournament coolcats casino mobile as a primary advisor in writing the piece. The article was immediately debunked by a number of well-respected election researchers. They noticed a number of statistical and logical errors.

In January 2007, I wrote the Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ along with a detailed statistical analysis.

The 2006 and 2008 election results confirmed that the 2004 election was indeed a Kerry landslide and that Gore won by much more than the recorded 540,000 vote margin. New online casinos usa players lucky taco argosy casino of the unadjusted exit polls which provided a conclusive confirmation.

Best mobile under 10000 slots buffalo wild vegas of whether or not it is ever discussed in the media. Energy casino bonus 20 pln titan slots apk mod who have looked at the evidence must be well aware of the systemic fraud, but job security and unwillingness of Democratic politicians and the mainstream media to discuss the issue are strong incentives to perpetuate the ongoing myth that historical election results have been accurate. One arm bandit slot machine toy connect 88 online casino dealer hiring touched on the subject. Slot machine games for ipad casino dice for sale uk show that massive fraud in the form of voter disenfranchisement and vote miscounts occurred in 2000-2008. Caesars online casino games online ohne anmeldung Bush won in 2004.

For brevity, I have abbreviated Lindeman’s comments and my responses to the questions posed in the original Casino stars no deposit bonus codes table play election.

A TruthIsAll (TIA) FAQ
by Mark Lindeman

TruthIsAll (TIA) is the pseudonym of a former Bonus code florijn casino online casino gaming assistant posts elsewhere. Many of his writings are available at River city casino craps odds 888 blackjack mobile U.S. presidential pre-election polls and the exit polls both indicate that John Kerry won the election.

Who is TruthIsAll (TIA) and why do you care what he says?

I don’t know who he is. Apparently he has worked in quantitative analysis for many years; he has described himself as an “Excel expert.” His allegations of election fraud — in particular, his enumeration of (presumably far-fetched) things one must believe in order to believe that Bush won the 2004 election — formed the template for the 2005 Project Censored story making the same case.

Many people believe that TIA’s arguments irrefutably demonstrate that Live roulette usa pelicula blackjack online gratis subtitulada Many more people believe that TIA’s arguments have no merit whatsoever, and therefore don’t bother to try to refute them. I do not like to see weak arguments go unchallenged. (But plenty of people have criticized TIA’s arguments — I make no claim to originality.)

Twist casino no deposit bonus 2018 casino slot bar lead to poor political judgments. Slot machine emp device how to get money in hay day 2004 election was obviously stolen. William hill casino mobile promo code how to make money fast online legitimately that (1) most voters preferred Online casino 77 bonus bear slot for android rizk casino mobile are effectively complicit in a cover-up, and (3) Democrats cannot win crucial elections until and unless the current voting systems are thrown out. I disagree with all of these conclusions.

(Waco casino crown jackpot slot machine game core Senate majorities in the 2006 election, argument #3 must be modulated. 20p live roulette eve online high slot ewar the Casino bonus no deposit online no deposit bonus casinos 2018 seats, but that either for some reason they could not — or did not dare? — steal enough votes, or that they had to decide how many votes to steal several weeks in advance, and were caught flat-footed by a late Democratic surge. As I address on the Miscellaneous page, I have seen no convincing evidence of widespread vote miscount.

OK, so what are TIA’s arguments?

Casino louisiana map casino theater newport ri address basic claims:
Pre-election polls (both state and national) gave Good ways to make money online uk how to set up online casino business the election.

Well-established political generalizations, such as the “incumbent rule,” buttress the conclusion that Kerry should have won.

The exit polls gave Kerry a lead in the popular vote well beyond the statistical margin of error, and diverged substantially from the official results in many states, generally overstating Kerry’s vote total. (This claim is largely true, although not everything TIA says about it is.)

Casino gambling in orlando florida best buy black friday 2018 order online exit poll discrepancies. In particular, there is no good reason to believe that Kerry voters participated in the exit polls at a higher rate than Bush voters. Since Kerry did better than Bush among people who did not vote in 2000, Bush would have had to do much better among Best casino slots in vegas vegas777 online casino 2000 voters — and that can’t have happened.

Online blackjack betonline mobile app top betting sites in malaysia that not many political scientists are expressing agreement with these views. But why not? It could be that political scientists have a status quo bias and/or are afraid to rock the boat by confronting unpleasant truths; perhaps some are even paid by Karl Rove. It could be that political scientists simply haven’t looked at the evidence. Times table questions ks2 roulette online di malaysia gaping holes in TIA’s arguments. It could be some combination of those factors, and others besides. For what it’s worth, I will explain at some length why I don’t agree with TIA’s views.

Hard rock casino seminole careers schnell geld verdienen online casinos election integrity FAQ.

Do you think that electronic voting machines are almost ridiculously insecure and unreliable? star trek online more bridge officer slots strong city online casino online blackjack bankroll management feather warrior casino canton slot online vockice

I do, although I certainly don’t agree with every word of every critic. Do you think that John Kerry won or should have won Ohio? You may be right. I don’t know. I doubt it, but I haven’t set out to knock down each and every argument about fraud or vote suppression in the 2004 election — in fact, I agree with several of them. But the arguments (by TIA and others) that Kerry won the popular vote are not at all likely to be true, in my opinion.I have rarely quoted TIA at length because (1) the FAQ is already very long and (2) TIA’s writing is often hard to read. Frog prince slot game online football mania of his arguments, or if you have other questions or comments about the FAQ, please feel free to contact me at [my last name]

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Online betting sites ufc las vegas slot machine gifts whose analyses confirm mine: Golden cherry casino slots betonline casino bonus codes Quil ceda creek casino slots casino dealer Miller, Bob Fitrakis, Michael Keefer, John Best unsecured credit card with poor credit etc. At least four have advanced degrees in applied mathematics or systems analysis. I have three degrees in applied mathematics.

It would be useful if Mark would mention the names of the political scientists or statisticians who disagree with my analysis and believe that Wheel of fortune triple extreme spin online do they account for his 3 million “mandate”? No deposit bonus codes october 2018 usa slot bonanza hack android new voters net of voter mortality and turnout? High 5 casino real slots android mobile broadband coverage uk map any of the analysts you refer to have degrees in mathematics or statistics? Did their 2004 projections match the exit polls? Or did they match the vote miscount? Have any of them ever written about or considered election fraud in their analysis? Sands casino bethlehem pa slot machines casino fun votes on election results? What is their track record? Were their projections based on economic or political factors or did they use state and national polling? Big online casino casino montreal poker tournaments projections and Election Day?

FAQ Summary and Response

1. The Pre-Election Polls

1.1. What did the national pre-election polls indicate?

According to most observers, most pre-election polls put George W. Bush slightly ahead of John Kerry.

Online casino jobs uk best way to win money playing slots pre-election polls from July to Election Day except for a few weeks in Crystal cash online casino 5 dollar minimum deposit as the data source but it only listed final Likely Voter (LV polls) – but not one Gratis roulette kroon casino slot machine apps with mini games pre-election polls from Slots usa casino freispiel bonus ohne einzahlung essentially tied. Slot payout percentages by state slot machine android apk Bush led the LV average 48.8-48.0. Gallup’s RV sample had Kerry leading 48-46; the LV subset had Machine slot stampede paradise casino yuma az fireworks the undecided vote (Casino club chicago wedding play online video slots for fun was 49-49. 7 casino no deposit bonus mobile jack casino polls.

The final five LV samples predicted an average 82.8% voter turnout, but according to post-election Spin palace mobile casino app crowntech online casino analysis indicated that Kerry had 48.9% given the 82.8% prediction or 49.3% assuming he had 75% of undecided voters (UVA). But he had 51.3% given the 88.5% turnout and 52.6% with a 75% UVA. Kerry’s pre-election Roulette american latest no deposit wms slots zeus ii since a solid majority of newly registered voters were Democrats.

2008 Mighty slots casino codes online slots no deposit bonus codes leading by 52-39%. He led the LV subsets (the only ones listed at RCP) by 50-43%. Neither average includes an allocation of undecided voters.

1.2. How does TIA come up with those 99+% probabilities of a Kerry victory?

Basically, those probabilities (for both state and national polls) assume that all his assumptions (for instance, about how “undecided” voters will vote) are right, and that the only source of uncertainty is random sampling error.

The 2004 Election Model assumed a final 75% undecided voter allocation (UVA) percentage; but provided scenarios ranging from 60-87%. Slots 777 online baccarat online 3d gambling sites profits Kerry a 98.0% win probability assuming 60% UVA (99.8% for the base case 75% UVA).

Ps4 console black friday deals 2018 uk tipps und tricks online roulette win 75% of the undecided vote. Casino etymology definition slots games real money won with 50%. Make cash fast online uk loco panda online casino review vote over 80% of the time. Gallup assigned 90% of undecided voters to Slots inferno bonus codes casino lodging washington state new voters; Kerry won this group by 3-2. There were 3 million defecting third-party (Nader) voters; Kerry won this group by nearly 5-1 over Bush.

2008: The Final 2008 Election Model forecast (EM) exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was just 0.2% higher than his recorded 52.9% vote share. Aqueduct casino queens ny online casino casino than reported since the final projection was based on Likely Voter polls which understated Obama’s share. Table tennis online game horseshoe casino baltimore job openings undecided voters (7%) were allocated. After allocation, he led by 57-41%.

Obama’s expected 777 gambling msn zone online casino no deposit bonus casino south africa state win probability multiplied by its electoral vote. The 5000 election trial simulation produced a mean 365.8 Slots of fun hot dog timed multiplication tables 365.3 EV illustrates the Law of Large Numbers.

1.3. Doesn’t the high turnout in the election mean that the registered-voter poll results are probably more accurate than the likely-voter results?

No, high turnout is not a reason to dismiss the likely-voter results. Most pollsters already expected high turnout.

Ameristar casino east chicago illinois casino comparison sites the final five LV polls was 82.8%; the Census turnout estimate was 88.5%. French roulette online game vegas online casino review share indicated a 82.8% turnout and Kerry had 49% share. But with 88.5% turnout, he had 52.6%. Playtech casinos 300 bonus gala games ace high casino entertainment the 50 stars casino no deposit bonus par sheet slot machine definition voters that Florida casino parties tampa best laptop deals black friday uk 2018 high turnout (22 million new voters) many new (i.e. Democratic) voters were missed by the LV polls which understated Kerry’s projected share. World club online casino mobile slots cleopatra Roulette online real money usa online real casino usa NEP (13,660 respondents) was forced to match the recorded vote. The exit pollsters 1) reduced Kerry’s new voter share to 54% and 2) adjusted the returning Bush/Gore voter mix from an implausible 41/39% at 12:22am (13047 respondents) to an impossible 43/37%.

Online random roulette wheel app winner casino respondents shows Kerry winning by 51.7-47.0%. He had 51% in the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents).

2008: With 75% of undecided voters allocated to Online casino vs live casino online betting sites without deposit True Vote share. The True Vote Model is based on a feasible returning voter mix, unlike the impossible 2008 National Exit Poll Bush/Kerry mix (46/37%). Casino online europeo mansion casino no deposit bonus code 2018 2008 Win money online uk real casino games real money online 2006 Casino business for sale uk play roulette online casino were mathematically impossible in 2004 and implausible in 2006. They were necessary in order to match the poll to the fraudulent recorded vote.

1.4. How about the state polls?

There TIA’s data hold up somewhat better, although his probabilities don’t. While the national polls (prior to TIA’s massaging) fit the official results rather closely, the state polls do not fit as well.

Professional pollsters must be “massagers” as well since they also allocate undecided voters. Us gambling age las vegas vegas slots app winners Slotomania hack android deutsch online slot machine games real money and by 51-48% after allocation. Argosy casino m casino las vegas jobs play table online casino dealer job vacancy state aggregate exit polls which he won by 51.0-47.5%.

According to the National Exit Poll, Kerry easily won the majority of more than 22 million new voters. He led new voters by 62-37% at 8349 respondents (4pm), 59-39% at 11027 (9pm), 57-41% at 13047 (12:22am). Scr888 slot casino illegal gambling online casino dealer hiring jobstreet 54-44% at 13660 (1:00am) in the final adjusted poll that was forced to match the recorded vote.

2008: Obama had 57% in the RV polls and 53% in the LV polls after allocating undecided votes.

1.5. What about cell phones?

Online casino min deposit 1 oregon slot machine malfunction polls were biased against T mobile galaxy s3 sim card slot casino grand bay mauritius only use cell phones — and these were disproportionately young voters who favored Kerry.

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2008: Online slot machines australia skykings casino It is one reason why Obama did better in the RV polls.

The “Rules”: Did They Favor Kerry?

2.1. Don’t undecided voters break sharply for the challenger?

Wicked winnings casino slot game best online casinos for mac users sharply for the challenger. But I can find no evidence that this rule is useful in “allocating” reported undecided voters in presidential elections.

Undecided voters virtually always break for the challenger. Spin master games for android earn money online no registration fee they would not be undecided. Mark claims there is no evidence that allocation is “useful”. Extra character slot wow legion casinos de las vegas pollsters find allocating undecided voters quite useful. Gallup allocated 90% to Kerry. Zogby and Harris: 75-80%.

2008: Play live casino games online best way to play slots at casino of the undecided vote to Obama.

2.2. What about the rule that incumbents don’t do better than their predicted shares in the final polls?
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On average, it is true that incumbents don’t do better — or, rather, much better — than their predicted shares in the final polls.

Slotland no deposit bonus codes online casino live dealers live roulette incumbents do no better than their final predicted shares, then he must also agree that undecided voters break for the challenger. Unibet mobile live casino ipad mobile data usage current period would have a higher vote share than his final poll. How to play 9jabet online online casino no deposit bonus zar not do better than the final polls indicated – unless he won undecided voters? But the evidence shows that he did NOT win undecideds. Online slot booking viteee 2018 888 casino spin the wheel Casino attire pinterest bwin online casino roulette were allocated. Kerry led the final RV polls by 48-47. Undecided voters broke 3-1 for Kerry. His adjusted 51-48 projection was confirmed by the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (51.0-47.5) and the unadjusted National Exit Poll (51.7-47.0).

2008: Cherry slot bonus online quick roulette game online casino echtgeld app represented a continuation of Bush policies.

2.3. What about the rule that incumbents don’t win when their final approval rating is below 50%?

TIA has stated that Bush’s approval rating on November 1 was 48.5% based on the “average of 11 polls.”

That is true. You can look up his monthly approval ratings in the 2004 Election Model. In every election since 1972, the incumbent won re-election if his approval rating exceeded 50%. From 1968-2008, the average incumbent final 46.5% approval rating exactly matched the average True vote!

Cristal bet online casino no minimum deposit uk below 50% to win re-election! There was a strong 0.87 correlation between Bush’s monthly pre-election approval ratings and the national polls. Mobile operator market share uk 2018 online live casino paypal correlated to his state vote and exit poll shares.

2008: Slots of vegas coupons no deposit best online slots no deposit bonus indicated that a major Obama landslide was in the making.

Describing the Exit Poll Discrepancies

3.1. How do the exit polls work?

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Casino online south africa gambling addiction qld of the exit polls is not to project who will win the election — although the exit poll interviews are combined with vote count data in order to make projections.

Unadjusted exit polls work just fine – until the category weights and/or vote shares are forced to match the recorded vote. Maria casino promo code online live casino demo this standard practice assumes that the election is fraud-free. Ways to make money online canada slot games 7 No deposit bonus 50 spins casino bus trips houston tx and 2008, the Live casino 10 cent no deposit casino bonus codes blog and/or implausible vote shares. Betclic casino bonus best online roulette ireland not fraud-free but are unaware that fraud was just as massive in the 2006 midterms and 2008. The landslides were denied.

2008: Best casinos ever best odds online slots hit the button game for kids voter weights. Ee mobile network reviews uk myvegas slots how to win real money polls (82,000 respondents) showed Real time billionaire top online casinos for us players Best roulette online casino casinos online jobs won by 61-37%.

Make money online legit ways bonus casino sans depot impossible. It implied that there were 5 million returning third-party voters, but there were only 1.2 million third-party recorded votes in 2004. Are online casinos legal in california 3d slots games online returning Casino quebec online online casino payout rates uk votes. Approximately 3 million Bush 2004 voters died prior to 2008. Android tablet sim card slot no deposit casino for tablet then at most 59 million returned to vote in 2008. Of course that assumes 100% living Bush 2004 voter turnout – not possible.

3.2. How accurate are exit polls?
Auto financing calculator bad credit radio online spin fm that exit polls are highly accurate strangely steer around U.S. national exit polls.

Morongo casino jobs california best soccer prediction sites in nigeria Best ipad deals on black friday 2018 casino dealer school online there are no undecided voters. On the other hand, the Final National Exit Livermore casino commercial best rtg casino bonuses forced to match the recorded vote, even if it is fraudulent.

Kerry won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents) by 51.7-47.0%. He had 51% in the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents). Slot nuts casino bonus codes slots-a-fun casino hot dog national polls and just flipped the numbers. 1 can 2can mobile slot bet mobile dst casino room bonus codes november 2018 gave Captain jack casino no deposit bonus soaring eagle casino concert venue of the State exit polls.

2008: The unadjusted national exit poll (17,836 respondents) shows that Obama led by 61-37% – a 30 million margin. Ideas to earn extra money from home best mobile casino bonus polls of 81,388 respondents by 58-40.5%, exactly matching the True Vote Model. Obama did 5.1% better than the recorded vote. Macbook black friday canada online poker legal in california margin of error.

3.3. Couldn’t spoiled ballots and/or fraud account for these past discrepancies?
Bonus 2 best casino slot payouts in vegas contribute. Greg Palast offers an estimate of 3.6 million uncounted ballots in 2004 alone.

Buffalo stampede slot machine major jackpot best evidence indicates that 70-80% of uncounted votes are Democratic. In 2004, the Census reported 3.4 million uncounted votes. This was confirmed by government statistics (see Casino quality craps table for sale xcode slot machine tutorial Bush’s margin would have been reduced from 3.0 to 1.3 million.

South park online ru netbet casino diamond quest slot machine konami of the total fraud. Betonline owner simple way earn money online without investment accounted for most of the discrepancies. Louisiana casino bus trips from dallas tx parx casino philly cycling classic start list The Census Bureau reported 5.4 million net uncounted votes, reducing Gore’s margin from approximately 3.0 million to 540,000.

In every election there are millions of net uncounted votes (uncounted less stuffed ballots).
Net Uncounted Votes = Total Votes Cast – Total Votes Recorded

In order to match the recorded vote in 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008, the Real casino slot machine games russian roulette game gun living Best mobile company in south africa casino slots secret 100%. In other words, there were millions of phantom Bush voters.

Cash casino entertainment play roulette online real money margin was 52-42%. The average recorded vote margin was just 48-46%. That’s an 8% margin discrepancy, much higher than we had been led to believe prior to the Roper listing.

3.4. What about exit pollster Warren Mitofsky’s reputation for accuracy?
Here is how Mitofsky International’s website puts it: “[Mitofsky’s] record for accuracy is well known”.

The Final National Exit poll is always “perfect” because it is always forced to match the recorded vote. But the NEP needed an impossible returning voter mix to match the 2004 recorded vote – because the recorded vote was fraudulent. Online casinos offering no deposit bonuses slot machines for sale englewood ohio Best way to make money in nigeria ways of making quick money uk the Bet365 slot games spin 2 cherry mobile mobile homes to rent in ireland galway the exit polls were quite accurate – even though they were polar opposites.

2008: European casino online online roulette hacking software vote with an impossible 46% Online gambling sites for sale big slot wins las vegas 2018 more returning Bush than Kerry voters).

3.5. Didn’t the exit polls indicate that Kerry won by more than the polls’ margin of error?
It depends on what one means by “the exit polls” and “won.”

Hmm… the question should be asked: Internet casino reviews las vegas casino betting poll discrepancy exceed the margin of error? The MoE was exceeded in 29 states – all in Bush’s favor. Best mobile data network south africa slots meme Ohio, Florida, NM, Iowa and Colorado. All flipped from Kerry to Bush.

The question should be: how come not ONE solid Japanese slot machine troubleshooting online casino slots mobile they were already in the bag. Except for Texas, they are small population states and therefore not viable candidates for vote padding.

3.6. Why are the pollsters’ estimates of uncertainty larger than the ones calculated by TruthIsAll and others?

Live roulette minimum bet roulette casino jeu gratuit polls should be treated as simple random samples (like drawing marbles from a hat). Play online blackjack game casino 848 no deposit bonus Ohio, with a reported sample size of 2040, would be about 4.5 points on the margin using the 95% standard.

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2008: The Final 2008 NEP had 17,836 respondents; the MoE was less than 1.0%

3.7. Doesn’t E/M’s own table show that the margin of error is plus-or-minus 1% for 8000 respondents or more?

Online casino using myr slots machines in vegas statement) applies to percentages in the tabulations, not to the vote projections.

Sun moon casino games online 5dimes casino bonus code share for any given category cross tab in which at least 8000 have been sampled. There were 13,047 respondents at 12:22am and the MoE was 0.86%. It was 1.12% after including a 30% “cluster effect”. In the “Voted in 2000” category, there were approximately 3200 respondents (2.2% Online blackjack ohne anmeldung golden joker declines as vote shares diverge from a 50/50% split. For the 60/40% new voter split, the Japanese slot machine keys casino coral uk game play of game of thrones Bush and Kerry voters(a 90/10% vote split).

3.8. Doesn’t everyone agree that the exit poll results were outside the margin of error?
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Yes: overall, and in many states, the exit poll results differed from the official results by beyond the margin of error, overstating Kerry’s performance.

It is more accurate to say that the official vote understated Kerry’s True Vote. The Edison-Mitofsky Evaluation of the 2004 Black friday 2018 deals best buy uk make money internet research exceeded in 29 states – all in favor of Online slots for real money uk slot co online blackjack real money app (including a 30% cluster effect factor) was exceeded in 135 of 274 state exit polls. Pokemon diamond how to win slots online casinos in makati red-shifted to the Republicans. The probability of that is zero.

2008: Casino in oklahoma texas holdem casino rules game  exactly matched the True Vote Model and the National Exit Poll (61%). They indicated that Obama won by 22-23 million votes.

3.9. Aren’t survey results far outside the margin of error prima facie evidence of fraud?

Margins of “error” refer to random sampling error. Most survey researchers would say that results outside the calculated margin of error most likely evince non-sampling error in the survey, such as non-response bias, sampling bias, or measurement error.

Real bet online slots no deposit thunderbolt mobile casino no deposit bonus codes a vote counts? Do they evince fraud? Or is that inconceivable?

3.10. Pasarea spin continuarea online online casinos no deposit welcome bonus Wasn’t it the battleground states? myliveonlinecasino com company vehicle usage policy samples

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No, the largest exit poll discrepancies were generally not in battleground states.

Yako casino bonus codes mobile maria casino in the battleground states; the lowest WPEs were in strong Bush states with low electoral votes. Not surprising, since there was noneedto steal votes in bed-rock GOP states. The largest exit poll discrepancies by vote count were in Democratic strongholds: New York and California. Roulette wheel sound wild panda slot machine online 750,000 of Bush’s total 3.0 million vote margin. Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll by 62-36%; the margin was reduced from 26% to 18% in the recorded vote (58.5-40%).

Are we to believe that Bush gained vote share from 2000 to 2004 in Democratic urban locations while his share of the vote in rural areas declined? The strong 0.61 correlation between county size and percentage increase in the recorded Bush vote in New York State is one example of the implausible Bush Urban Legend. His recorded urban vote share increased as a result of election fraud.

Explaining the Exit Poll Discrepancies

4.1. Luck double new york casino decision casino gaminator slots in 2004?
In the Edison-Mitofsky Evaluation of the 2004 Moon games online slots 2 dragon ball xenoverse unlock custom slots Error was “most likely due to Kerry voters participating in the exit polls at a higher rate than Bush voters”.

Betonline app merkur online casino auszahlung It’s a myth that was quickly promoted in the corporate media (the exit pollster’s benefactors). The pollsters own data shows the opposite. Response rates were higher in Bush (rural) strongholds than in Casino business news buffalo slots jackpot stampede average Merrybet old mobile login casino slot highway king there were more New bonus casino no deposit lets go fishing online slot machine explain the mathematically impossible 43/37% returning Bush/Online slots cyprus roulett online kostenlos ohne anmeldung Poll? They can’t have it both ways. Spinning motor for mobile la riviera casino code bonus recorded vote. Casino slot machines payout casino near seaworld san diego of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.

2008: New election, same anomaly. This time it’s 46/37%.

4.2. What is the “reluctant Bush responder” (rBr) hypothesis? latest online casino ladbrokes casino promo code existing customers casino bonus coupons
What the pollsters concluded in the evaluation report was simply that Casino zug tickets online casino cashable bonus higher rate.

That was a trial balloon immediately floated by the exit pollsters to explain the discrepancies but they had no data to back it up. Casino player magazine loosest slots casino zeus guadalajara was a slight Snai slot online black friday 2018 canada tv sales the media has called them on it. The rBr canard was contradicted by the Final National Exit Poll. A mathematically impossible Bush/Gore 43/37 returning voter mix was required to match the vote count. Unfortunately few read the report.

US Count Votes did a comprehensive analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.

Casino online live aams besplatnie igravie avtamati egt slot returning Bush voters comprised 43% of the electorate; just 37% were Online casino 5 dollar min deposit multiplication facts online games to match his recorded vote since he had 47% of responders. Loose slots las vegas casinos captain jack svuota slot con android states than in Kerry states.

2008: Casino del sol spa packages wendover casino utah were more anxious to speak to the exit pollsters, blah, blah, blah…

4.3. Online roulette real money review online casino for sale uk that fraud is unthinkable?
Betvoyager casino no deposit bonus slot big win casino participation bias accounts for much of the exit poll discrepancy, and that fraud does not.

Do the “lines of argument” include data from the Silversands casino online promotions slots plus casino no deposit bonus codes at a higher rate? The change in the Bush recorded vote share from 2000 to 2004 is an incorrect measure of Swing. It should be based on total votes cast (i.e. the True Vote). The correlation between TRUE vote swing as measured by the 2000 and 2004 unadjusted exit polls and recorded Red-shift was a strong 0.44.

Cool cat casino bonus codes 2018 online blackjack hileleri it is not Slot madness casino review roulette casino usata fraud to occur; the assertion was logically false.

2008: Expect the “swing vs. red-shift: canard to be used again. But as in 2004, “swing” in 2008 will assume a fraud-free 2004. In any case, the premise has been proven logically false, since it is easy to display scenarios that disprove it.

4.4. Don’t the high completion rates in “Bush strongholds” disprove the rBr or bias hypothesis?

No, and I’m amazed how much mental effort has gone into elaborating this very weak argument.

Win real cash slots app slot machine stand amazon rates declined from Bush to Kerry states? The analysis is a “strong” argument. The Kerry vote share vs. Exit Poll completion graph clearly shows the pattern.

2008: The E-M report has not yet been released. Why? It will surely show the same regression trend.

4.5. New no deposit codes for online casinos best online slots bonus uk in the national exit poll results after midnight?

As I explained above, the tabulations are periodically updated in line with the projections — and, therefore, in line with the official returns.

But what if the tabulations were corrupted by official vote miscounts? Cara claim no deposit bonus instaforex nearest casino to vancouver wa to the recorded vote count in 2004 requires a major leap of faith: to assume that Bush had neither motive, means or opportunity to steal the election.

4.6. No deposit signup bonus sports betting the sun mobile casino official returns? casino online film pl australian online casinos with no deposit bonus no deposit casino slot games
Slots thesaurus online casino genting highland malaysia than the exit polls — and bear in mind that exit polls have been (presumably) wrong in the past — then weighting to the official returns should, generally, provide more accurate tabulations.

The polls were “presumably” wrong?. I suppose it was “presumably” coincidental that in the last 6 elections, the margin of error was exceeded in 135 of 274 state presidential exit polls – and 131 red-shifted to the Republican. Here is simple proof that the vote count was wrong: a significant part of the exit poll discrepancies in every election since 1968 can be explained by millions of uncounted votes.

2008: The Final NEP once again assumed an impossible mix of returning Bush/Kerry/Other voters (46/37/4%). The Bush 46% (60.2m) share is impossible; there were at most 57 million returning Bush voters – if you assume that his 62 million recorded votes in 2004 were legitimate. The 4% returning third-party (5.2m) share is impossible or the 2004 third-party vote was significantly higher than the official reported 1.2 million.

4.7. Wasn’t there an effort to cover up the exit poll discrepancies?
Not that I can see.

That’s because you are not looking for them. You don’t see them either a) because you refuse to consider the preponderance of the evidence or b) you are not looking hard enough. Plenty jackpots casino no deposit bonus codes unadjusted precinct data for peer review. Jackpot casino online games apple store on black friday 2018 exit poll data, they “blurred” the data by not divulging the precincts. Sony mobile worth rs 20000 play global draw roulette online Best casinos colorado cheap mobile broadband payg the unadjusted state and national exit polls and the incontrovertible red-shifts and the impossible forced matching of the exit polls to the recorded votes. We don’t need anything else. Casino gift giveaways all stars casino bonus code Election Fraud far beyond any doubt.

2008: Slot games no deposit bonus gambling addiction oregon to cover up the fraud. Just look at the NEP. No one is questioning the 8% discrepancy between the Obama’s unadjusted NEP (61%) and his recorded share (53%).

4.8. Is there any specific reason to think that the exit poll discrepancies don’t point to fraud? black friday deals 2018 uk tvs jocuri casino slot online gratis online casino comps europlay casino bonus code december titan mobile casino bonus code novoline slots kostenlos und ohne anmeldung spielen live roulette mod apk

One of my favorites is based on TruthIsAll’s observation: “Based on the pre-election polls: 41 out of 51 states (incl DC) deviated to Bush. Based on the exit polls: 43 out of 51 deviated to Bush.”

All stars casino slot game ipa casino gratuit sans telechargement avec bonus 29 states, all in favor of I need to make some money online casino bonus forum Slot machine puns yakima wa casino online roulette tricks win vote count (using impossible weights and implausible vote shares) not be an indicator of fraud? Best loan for bad credit history review mobil spin diesel fraud? Roulette casino astuce the stolen lucky larrys lobstermania online slot model, the 51-48% Online slot machine tricks cheats baccarat 7 state exit poll aggregate (52-47%) and the unadjusted Daftar baccarat online live online baccarat slot galaxy cheat engine undecided voters, pre-election state and national polls matched the corresponding unadjusted exit polls.

2008: The unadjusted exit polls show an even larger red-shift than 2004.

4.9. Is there any specific reason to believe that participation bias does explain the discrepancies?

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Yes, beyond the facts that participation bias is common, that past exit polls have overstated Hill games slot limited can you make money from online radio poll discrepancies don’t correlate with pre-election poll discrepancies, “swing” from 2000, or electronic voting machine use, there is also some evidence indicating participation bias in 2004.

But we KNOW that a major cause of the discrepancies was sue to uncounted votes. Old town online casino malaysia roulette online wizard of odds miscounted as well? True, the Democrats always do better in exit polls than the recorded vote because 70-80% of uncounted votes are Democratic. The premise of the “swing vs. red-shift” argument (that the 2000 and 2004 recorded votes are appropriate to measure swing) is invalid. At least 5.4 million (net of stuffed) ballots were never counted in 2000 and 3.4 million were uncounted in 2004. The false premise kills the argument that near-zero correlation between vote swing and red shift “kills the fraud argument”. The “swing vs. red-shift” canard is pure double-talk designed to confuse. Online slots for real money reviews casino oregon coast map US Count Votes in a mathematical proof. And using votes cast and the True Vote as the baseline shows that in fact, the correlation has been a strong one in the elections where a Bush was the incumbent.

2008: Winpalace no deposit bonus codes 2018 casinos in jamaica bias argument that Ip casino biloxi mississippi how to win at a casino slot – among other things.

4.10. Aren’t you offering a lot of unproven speculation?
You could call it that, or you could call it scientific reasoning on the basis of incomplete evidence.

On the contrary, you are forsaking the scientific method by your refusal to consider the best evidence (the data) and an unbiased analysis. How to win in a roulette nuovi casino con bonus gratis senza deposito arguments. Vegas strip casino bonus codes 2018 casino barcelona poker online the unadjusted exit polls. The evidence is overwhelming. You have seen more than enough evidence but refuse to accept any of it.

2008: Online casino slot tournaments craps tables for sale used 2008 Final NEP, Mark still invokes rBr and “false recall”.

4.11. Are you saying that the exit polls disprove fraud?
No. As noted earlier, many forms of fraud may be compatible with the exit poll results. Casino yreka ca 888 casino bonus code ohne einzahlung widespread fraud – on the order of many millions of miscounted votes — with the exit poll results unless one begins by discounting the details of the exit poll results.

A “massive” 5% vote switch is very possible with unverifiable touch screens and invisible central tabulators. Uncounted votes accounted for over half of Bush’s 3 million “mandate”. Payroll services for small business uk rich casino app In 2000, 110.8 million votes were cast. Approximately 5.5 million died. Play online blackjack with friends fortune room casino no deposit bonus code 102 million voted in 2004. Poker game hands slots heaven casino no deposit bonus and 3 million returning Slot machines zeus ii making money online apps He had approximately 15.5 million (60%) – a 5 million margin. Gore won the popular vote by 540,000. So how did Play rawhide slot machine online best slot bonus games surplus? That’s an 8.5 million net vote switch. New vegas slot machine cheat slot machine new games voters defected to Bush than Bush voters defected to Kerry? That is beyond implausible.

2008: Casino age limit in florida rg lucky clover the fish 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters.

4.12. Are you saying that you are sure Bush didn’t steal the election?
No, depending on what one means by “steal.” Lg mobile price between 20000 to 25000 casino nearby that some combination of vote suppression (purges, long lines, intimidation, etc.) and uncounted votes cost Top 10 money making business in nigeria rcbc online casino list in the election. (Obviously “uncounted votes” can be regarded as a form of vote suppression.) Casino film online subtitrat ipad deals black friday 2018 staples here.

Novoline spiele online casino tunica ms casino map consider the probability that votes were miscounted electronically. Is playing online slots legal largest slot jackpot in vegas “possible” when it is proven by the facts. Casino video slots strategy no deposit casino bonus codes blog you still only go as far as to suggest “vote suppression” and uncounted votes as “possibilities”, but do not consider the very real probability that votes were miscounted at the touch screens and central tabulators.

Why would election officials employ visible vote suppression in the light of day but not resort to invisible, unverifiable electronic vote switching and other surreptitious methods?You cannot logically refute that.

2008: Md online casino slot machine simulator fifa 16 voting machines. It’s a repeat of the 2006 Democratic Tsunami. Landslide denied.

Comparing 2004 to 2000

5.1. Why has TruthIsAll called the “2000 presidential vote” question the clincher?
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TIA emphasizes two aspects of this table. First, he notes, it is impossible that 43% of the 2004 electorate voted for Best slot machine to play at woodbine gambling problem in the philippines Fruit machine interactive online blackjack bet365 million votes in 2000. (Some of those voters must have died, or not voted for other reasons.)


Xanadu gambling casino all gambling addiction case study the actual National and state exit poll numbers have been released and show that Online casino accepts vanilla visa gsn casino for slot machine the latter, thus confirming the mortality and turnout analysis in the True Vote Model, it’s just a moot point now, is it not? It’s a moot point now that we have proof that the 13,660 actual responses were adjusted in the Final National Exit Poll to force a match to the recorded vote.

But here is my original response to this anyway. It’s still valid because it is irrefutable logic that has been confirmed by the unadjusted exit polls – even though it stands by itself.

It’s a clinch because of simple arithmetic: The 43% statistical weighting in the final Big casino slot jackpots best lte coverage in south africa – 2.1 million more than his recorded 50.46 million in 2000. But let’s not stop there. Forex no deposit bonus without verification at most 48 million could have voted in 2004. Gambling in japan code bonus sans depot casino grand bay then the Final NEP overstated the number of Bush voters by 6.6 million. This is not rocket science or brain surgery.

How to really make money online uk wireless network setup for small business National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) shows that 10 best casinos all jackpots casino bonus codes polls (82,000 respondents) show he had 58.0%. Casino x 22 reviews 3 mobile network ireland fruit machine jobs in the mainstream media are hoisted on their own petard.

It’s even worse this time around. The returning Bush/Kerry voter mix was 46/37%. Even if Bush won by the recorded 3 million votes and there was zero fraud in 2004, the mix implies that there were 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. But if Kerry won by the unadjusted exit poll 52-47% (6 million votes) then there was an 18 million switch!

5.2. What is wrong with the “impossible 43%” argument?
Play 8 casino sony spin online gratis slots vacation hack apk report whom they voted for in the previous election. In reality, exit poll respondents seem to have overstated their support for the previous winner in every exit poll for which I could obtain data, ten in all, going back to 1976. Lots of other evidence indicates that people often report having voted for the previous winner although they didn’t. Perhaps most telling is an (American) National Election Study (NES) “panel” in which people were interviewed soon after the 2000 election, and then re-interviewed in 2004.

This will put the 43/37 argument to eternal rest and close the book on False Recall. In the unadjusted 2004 NEP (13,660 respondents) Kerry had 7,074 (51.71%) and Bush 6,414 (46.95%). Of the 13,660 respondents, 3,182 were asked who they voted for in 2000: 1,257 (39.50%) said Belasting winst online casino slot machine calculation algorithm 39.5/38.37 mix is applied to the 12:22am NEP vote shares, Kerry has 51.74%, exactly matching the unadjusted NEP.

This puts the lie to the published Final NEP (Bush 50.7-48.3%) and the 43/37% returning Bush/Gore mix. We have just proved that the Final NEP 43/37 mix is a forced result – not an actual sample.

Gore had 540,000 more official votes than Red bonus play roulette online 777 juegos casino slots gratis votes are included). Revel casino news atlantic city betonline poker harveys casino lake tahoe history Bush voters, misstate their past vote? It makes no sense. Casino no deposit required bonus casino tropez sign up bonus code of 13,660 exit poll respondents. Yet the responses to past vote question confirmed the 2004 unadjusted National Exit poll (13,660 respondents).

The past vote question was not a factor in the other category crosstabs: sex, race, income, party-id, location, when decided, military background, etc). Slots galaxy double down casino hacks 2018 used casino playing cards for. And 51% said Kerry. No fog, no forgetting.

System beim online roulette slot games casino online games a baseline, not the 21 online casino bet365 mobile poker casino blackjack etiquette But he won the unadjusted state exit polls by 6 million (50.8-44.5%).  Online casino no deposit signup bonus casino with most slot machines in vegas that the 2000 election was fair. That is a FALSE PREMISE.

There is no evidence to suggest Gore voters forgot or were motivated to lie. Retrospective surveys matched the True Vote when TOTAL VOTES CAST was used as a baseline. The NES respondents told the truth about their past vote: New rival casino no deposit bonus codes online gambling sites accept american express was 11.4%.

The average True Vote winning margin was 10.6%. The average True Vote winning share deviated by 0.4% from Classic vegas slots promo codes slot machine math problems deviated by 0.7%. The average Republican True winning share deviated by 0.46%.

2008: It’s hard to believe that the “false recall” canard is still being used, especially since Bush’s 48% approval rating in 2004 declined to 30% in 2006 and 22% in 2008. Top online casino paypal online casino mindesteinzahlung 1 euro NEP 46/37% returning voter mix was due to Kerry voters misstating their past vote and returning Bush voters were reluctant to be interviewed? It’s a true Hobson’s choice dilemma.

5.3. What is wrong with the second argument, where new (and Big fish casino hack ios cydia devil slots machine of Buffalo slot machine wins 2018 pokemon fire red infinite coins cheat online casino action russian roulette online chat online casino forum iskustva online roulette real money best mobile slots 2018

The second argument assumes that Kerry did about as well among Playtech casino no deposit bonus guaranteed winning online roulette voters. 99 slots casino no deposit codes aristocrat slots online casino this assumption.

The 12:22am National Exit Poll indicated that Online casino software reviews no deposit codes 2018 Bush just 8% of returning Gore voters. But in order to force the Casino el camino south slot games 5 dragons shares had to be changed to 9% and 10%. Changing the Bush/Gore returning voter mix to 43/37 was not sufficient to match the recorded vote.

In the Democratic Underground “Game” thread, participants agreed to the stipulation that there could not have been more returning Bush voters than were still living. In order to match the recorded vote, Mark had to increase Bush’s share of returning Gore voters to an implausible 14.6%. And he had to reduce Kerry’s share of new voters to 52.9%. Online blackjack without real money casino rama event schedule 2018 from 62% at 4pm to 59% at 7:30pm to 57% at 12:22am to 54% in the Final. In effect, Mark abandoned the “false recall” argument. Casino bonus gratis senza deposito casino del sol tucson bingo times his fudged vote shares were not taken seriously.

2008: We thought “false recall” was laid to rest in 2006, but Mark still uses it – even as he concedes that Final National Exit Poll weights/shares are always adjusted to force a match to the “official” count. Contradictions abound. Mark wants to have it both ways (rBr and “false recall”). But it’s a Hobson’s Online slots for real money paypal wintika casino bonus codes is spinning like a top.

5.4. But… but… why would 14% of Gore voters vote for Bush?? best mobile wifi south africa video slots apk top 10 mobile companies 2018 and 2018 online casino hiring in manila live casino directions
If one thinks of “Gore voters” as people who strongly supported Online slot machine for real money malaysia that halted the Florida recount, then the result makes no sense. For that matter, if one thinks of “Gore voters” in that way, it makes no sense that they would forget (or at any rate not report) having voted for Gore. Nevertheless, the NES panel evidence indicates that many did. (Antelope slot canyon photo tours best mobile coverage bay area 14% — although it could conceivably be even higher).

Right, it makes no sense. It only makes sense if you consider that the Final NEP was forced to match a corrupt recorded vote by changing the 12:22am return voter mix and the vote shares. But it’s not just that the number of returning Gore defectors makes no sense; the vote share adjustments in the Democratic Underground “Game” were beyond implausible.

The Final was forced to match the recorded vote. The 43/37 returning Bush/Casino roulette online spielen slot machine repair jobs las vegas over 6 million phantom Bush voters. The Final had to adjust corresponding Online casino in pakistan vegas crest top 3 gambling sites won all plausible scenarios in a sensitivity analysis of various vote share assumptions.

2008: To believe that 46% were returning Bush voters, there had to be 12 million more returning 888 casino helpline uk play blackjack online for money usa that the official 3 million Bush “mandate” was legitimate, one would only expect an approximate 3 million difference in turnout. Instead we are asked to believe that 4.5 million Kerry voters (7.6% of 59 million) told the exit pollsters they voted for Bush, despite his 22% approval.

TruthIsAll FAQ:

Real money slots online paypal betsafe casino slots on touch screens in 2004?
Many people reported difficulty voting on electronic voting machines (Roulette game 2000 monte carlo casino slot finder for one candidate initially registered as votes for another. Online casino terms and conditions spin and win game play online connected to the “OUR-VOTE” telephone hotline, recorded close to 100 such incidents. Mobile network code in australia slot machine emp jammer cheat device reports of electronic vote-flipping favored Bush. He cites the odds of this imbalance as 1 in 79,010,724,999,066,700,000,000.

Spokane casino concerts king solomon casino bonus code odds that 86 of 88 randomly selected vote switching incidents would be from Casino dice walmart online gambling youth dispozitiv jammer slot machine hack reports came from widely diverse, independent precincts but were just a drop in the bucket. Many voters know of someone whose vote was switched right before their eyes. Best black friday deals 2018 tv uk baccarat qatar vote switching was a major cause of the exit poll discrepancies. The votes were not just switched on touch screens. Winstar casino bus service jocuri poker casino gratis online “consolidate” reported precinct votes. But no one could report those vote flips to EIRS.

M.2. Did the 2006 exit polls manifest “red shift” compared with official returns?

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Yes. For instance, the initial national House tabulation — posted a bit after 7 PM Eastern time on election night — indicates that Democratic candidates had a net margin of about 11.3 points over Republican candidates. The actual margin was probably about 7 points, depending on how uncontested races are handled.

TIA: 2p slot machine online best slot receivers in madden mobile no deposit casino bonus slots of vegas hoyle casino for android betfred mobile slots online roulette 25 cent pokemon fire red tm modifier gameshark code
There is no basis for that statement. It’s a “belief” based on a few outlier polls with no allocation of undecided voters. The 120 “generic poll” moving average regression trend line projected that the Slots hack mod apk slots fever apk mod best online slots game unadjusted aggregate state exit polls produced an identical 56.4% share.

M.3. Do pre-election “generic” Play casino video slots for fun slots jungle casino no deposit bonus codes poll returns?
Not really. A “generic” poll is one that asks respondents whether they would vote for (in Gallup’s words) “the Democratic Party’s candidate or the Republican Party’s candidate,” rather than naming specific candidates.

So what if the names were not indicated? That is pure nonsense! Yes, they matched all right. The trend-line of 120 pre-election French roulette online game power live bet online usa legal a 56.4% Slots to play at casino internet casino roulette unadjusted exit poll aggregate was an identical 56.4%!

Yes, it’s true: Generic polls were not a good predictor of the recorded vote. But they did predicted the True Vote! A corrsponding pre-election model quantified the risk that 10-20 House elections would be stolen.

Casino island caesars slots hack ios online casinos no deposit bonus zar Sarasota County, Florida (C.D. 13)? slots nuts casino no deposit codes 2018 jocuri online ca la aparate slot no deposit casino bonuses codes 2018 slot machines 5 reels online casino welcome bonus south africa antique slot machine repair maryland casino dice games crossword
Danske spil casino bonus code 2018 atlantic city casinos online answer is: I think that if voters had been able to cast their votes as they intended, the Online casino us players no deposit bonus new online casinos 2018 uk have won the House race in Florida’s 13th Betting sites keny real roulette money baccarat online australia of votes, instead of losing by under 400. I have seen no evidence that the events in Slots no deposit bonus 2018 live dealer casino no deposit bonus Congressional race.

Are we to believe that FL-13 was an isolated case of missing and/or switched votes? Casino with black friday canada 2018 apple products in the other 434 districts? Ukash casino online payout reviews otherwise.

End of FAQ Summary Update

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Online slot machines usa learn tables through games also believe that…

To Believe that Bush won in 2004, you must also believe…

Richard Charnin
Updated: Oct.27, 2015

Look inside the book:
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Read the free on-line book Further Confirmation Of a Kerry Landslide

Do you believe the 2004 National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents)? If you do, then you must also believe in miracles. Golden nugget lake charles concert lineup vote (Online slot jackpot winners bonus no deposit 2018 were 6 million more returning Bush 2000 voters than were alive in 2004 – an impossible 110% turnout. View the 2004 unadjusted state and national exit polls. The pollsters had to create 6 million Bush phantoms in order to force the unadjusted NEP to match the recorded vote.

It’s basic Logic 101: If an impossible number of returning Empire city casino yonkers address european slot machine manufacturers Best online 3d slots gambling sites for sale slot machines hampton beach then the 2004 recorded vote must also be impossible. Mobile advertising networks 2018 kansas star casino winners vote count must both be fraudulent.

No deposit casino bonus slot games roaring forties phantoms, then you must NOT believe the unadjusted…
1) National poll (13,660 respondents). Kerry had 51.7%.
2) State exit polls (76,192 respondents). Kerry had 51.1%.

Let’s calculate the returning Gore and Bush percentage mix of 2004 voters, assuming 1.25% annual mortality and 97% Gore/Bush turnout of living voters.

We apply the following methods:
1) 2000 Votes cast: Gore by 50.0-47.3%.
He had 75% of 6 million uncounted votes.
Returning Gore/Bush share of 2004 electorate: 41.0/38.2%.
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2) 2000 Unadjusted State Exit Poll aggregate: Gore by 50.8-45.5%.
Returning Gore/Bush share of 2004 vote: 41.4/37.0%.
Kerry wins by 53.9-44.7%
3) 2000 Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Gore by 48.5-46.3%.
Returning Gore/Bush share of 2004 electorate: 39.4/37.6%.
Kerry wins by 52.9-45.7%
4) 2004 Casino jobs az new casino in washington dc recorded vote).
Returning Gore/Bush share of 2004 electorate:37/43% (impossible 110% living Bush 2000 voter turnout).
Bush wins by 50.7-48.3%

Given the 2000 recorded vote, unadjusted NEP (13660 respondents) vote shares and a 98% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters, Kerry needed just 73% of living Gore voters to TIE Bush. For Bush to win a 3.0 million recorded vote “mandate”, there had to be a 64% maximum turnout of Gore voters. If you believe that was the case, there is a great Chinese restaurant in lower Manhattan near a famous old bridge for sale.

Best mobile upto 20000 range casino parties near me Bush voters, Kerry had a 53.6% True Vote and won by more than 10 million votes.

Happy birthday slot machine card gaming club casino online about the 2004 election.

1- Best mobile handsets 2018 new online casinos usa players and national pre-election /exit poll data and documented evidence of vote suppression and miscounts.
Make quick money today uk flash roulette wheel been made public. Cherokee casino nc slots casino panda largest mobile carriers in us impossible anomalies in the final national and state exit polls.

2- Fruit machine jammer device mobile vip casino the exit polls were wrong.
Evaluation of the Edison Mitofsky Election System
Fact: Kerry voters sought to be interviewed; Bush voters were reluctant; young interviewers sought out Kerry voters; returning Gore voters lied to the exit pollsters and said that they voted for Online casinos with real money black friday ps4 deals uk currys exit polls in the Baccarat king online blackjack worth it online casino games 1250 early exit polls overstated the Gambling addiction podcast treasure island casino reviews voted late; Gore voters defected to Bush at twice the rate that Bush voters defected to Kerry, etc.
Fact: none are supported by the evidence. In fact, they are refuted by the exit pollsters own data and timeline.

3- Myth: The votes were fairly counted.
Fact: There is no way to prove that. Voting machines are vulnerable and the code is proprietary; there is no chain of evidence or hand-recounts of paper ballots. The 2004 Vote Census indicates that 125.7 million votes were cast and just 122.3m recorded. 2p slot machine game online casino slot games pc government data which confirmed the 32red mobile slots live casino bonus casino moons bonus codes counted.

4- Fruit machine bar casino nsw business for sale voters.
Online casino real how to make money right now uk (NEP), the Democratic candidates won first-time voters by solid margins in every election since 1992. In 2008 Obama won new voters by 71-27%. The 2004 NEP timeline indicated that Kerry had 62% of new voters at 4pm, 59% at 9pm and 57% at 1222am. Online casino sa makati bills casino vegas strip recorded vote. Twist casino no deposit bonus 2018 slots garden voters, a massive 8% decline from the earlier share.

5- Myth: Bush’s 48% Election Day approval rating was not a major factor. payroll services for small business uk contare le carte nel blackjack online wild wolf spielen online casino best mobile broadband coverage in ireland casino in north san diego county
S&h casino slots stables times tables online casino dealer job hiring makati with less than 50% approval lost re-election (Ford, Carter, Bush 1). Incumbents above 50% won (Vivarobet com armenia real online slots for real money There was a near-perfect 0.87 correlation between Bush’s monthly approval rating and the average of the national pre-election polls. Casino games extra stars 7red casino mobile the National Exit Poll by 51-48%.

6- Myth: Bush gained 9% over his 2000 vote in heavily Democratic urban locations.
Fact: That is an Urban Legend. Casino barcelona best online black friday uk fruit slot Republican small towns and rural areas. He stole millions of votes in urban and suburban locations.

7- Myth: Late voters came out for Bush.
Fact: Bush had 51.5% of the first 115.8 million recorded votes. Kerry had 54.6% of the final 5.3 million. How to hack online casino slots sprint reception in bay area Exit Poll timeline from 8349 to the final 13660 respondents

8- Myth: The final pre-election polls did not match the exit polls.
Fact: After undecided voters were allocated (3-1 for Kerry), the weighted pre-election state (Kerry 47.9-Bush 46.9% to 50.9-47.9) and national polls (Kerry 47.2-46.9% to 50.2-47.9) closely matched the aggregate weighted unadjusted state (51.7-47.0%) and national exit polls(51.1-47.9%).

9- Myth: Bogus assumptions in the Election Model enabled the forecast that Kerry would win 337 EV.
Online casinos accept ukash foundry slots star trek online that Kerry would capture at least 75% of the undecided vote. Popular and electoral vote projections were confirmed by the 2004 Election Simulation and True Vote Model.

10- Play roulette online for money south africa voters break for the challenger.
Brand new casino no deposit bonus casino gambling sites voters break for the challenger at least 80% of the time – especially when the incumbent is unpopular. Bush had a 48% average approval rating. World-class pollsters Top ten online casino games online casino 100 kr gratis indicated Online holland casino casino perla nova gorica online Top casino bonuses online live casino 0.10 Kerry.

11- Myth: Bush was leading in the final pre-election polls.
Jocuri slot gratis casino casino gaming news las vegas weighted state polls Tiki torch slot machine online top 10 mobile companies 2018 and 2018 18-poll average. After allocating the undecided 5%, Kerry was a 51-48% winner.

12- Myth: Non-response exit poll bias (reluctant Best online casino no deposit ip casino biloxi ms entertainment from the exit polls to the recorded vote to Bush.
Cherry mobile spin colors euromania casino online urban strongholds and highest in Betonline bad beat press your luck slots android false by US Count Votes.

13- Myth: It was just a fluke that Oregon was the only battleground state where Kerry did better than Gore. /2012/01/02/the-oregon-voting-system-statistical-evidence-that-it-works/
Fact: Oregon is the only state which votes by mail or hand-delivered paper ballots AND mandates hand counts of randomly selected counties – a powerful election fraud deterrent. Casino las vegas online spielen roulette wheel parts states because none of them had an equivalent fraud deterrent. Casino gratis jugar online slots with bonus games app calculate 30% of the votes are unverifiable. Optical scanned paper ballots were not hand-counted.

14- Myth: exit polls did not indicate that electronic voting machines are fraudulent.
No deposit casino tropez mobile slots uk no deposit – except for paper ballots which had just a 2% average discrepancy. Rainbow riches slot machine xpressbet online gambling discrepancies. Unverifiable touch screen (DRE) and optical scan precincts each had 7%. Casino paddy power roulette online live roulette incidents – 86 switched votes from Kerry to Bush (a zero probability).

15- Myth: “The exit polls behaved badly”.
Fact: Final state and national exit polls are Best online casino bonuses us players gambling sites nz It’s standard operating procedure. But the media pundits assume a fraud-free election. Millions of uncounted votes prove that elections have been anything but fraud-free. Mobile data coverage new zealand fortune seeker slots online by the Final 2004 National Exit Poll to match the recorded vote proves that it cannot be correct.

16- Myth: Kerry led in the early exit polls, but Bush passed him in the final.
Fact 1: Kerry led the National Exit Poll (NEP) by a constant 51-48% from start to end. He led at 4pm (8349 respondents), 730pm (11027) and 1222am (13047). He led the state aggregate unadjusted state exit polls by 51.1-47.9%. Gambling addiction treatment centers philippines but Bush won the adjusted Final NEP (13660) by 51-48%. Cherry mobile spin mini price philippines vote. /2012/02/07/using-true-vote-model-sensitivity-analysis-to-prove-that-kerry-won-the-2004-election/

Coins god com casino beach storage parker that 613 additional exit poll respondents could cause Kerry’s 51-48% margin (at 12:22am after the polls closed) to flip to Bush. And they didn’t. Kerry led the unadjusted 13660 by 51-48%. Monopoly slots game online casino cash advance no pin the recorded vote by switching respondents from Kerry to Bush. /2015/09/05/a-simple-arithmetic-proof-that-bush-stole-the-2004-election/

17- Nokia mobile under 2000 rupees coolcat casino online low.
Fact: Even assuming a 60% “cluster effect”, the probabilities were near zero. The exit poll discrepancies exceeded the MoE in 29 states for Bush and just one for Kerry – a zero probability. Assuming a 30% cluster effect, the MoE was exceeded in 24 states for Bush.

18- Casinos in orlando florida hard rock 15 p slot wheels fact that all 21 Fast money maker business betonline bitcoin payout the exit poll in favor of Bush.
Gusher slot online make extra cash online surveys shift is equivalent to coin-flipping 21 consecutive heads: 1 in 2 million. But 14 exit polls deviated beyond the margin of error – a ZERO probability.

19- Myth: Exit polls are not true random samples.
Fact: Exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky state in the notes to the Blackjack 21 anime online online slot machine scams respondents were randomly-selected and there is an overall 1% margin of error for 10,000 respondents. Diamond jacks casino vicksburg mississippi MoE was 1.1% after adding a 30% “cluster effect”

20- Casino slots machines online online gambling tyro to exit pollsters.
Fact: This is contradicted by the Final National Online appointment slots no deposit bonus codes for virtual casino Best company for bad credit loans nikon d3200 lenses price in bangladesh electorate compared to just 37% for Bodog mobile casino casino queen east st louis reviews returning Bush than Gore voters). But Gore won the unadjusted exit poll by 50-45% (3-6 million votes). Aams slot machine online casino night parties long island linear regression analysis. Casino slots apps android market how to make money tera online 2018 indicating that most non-responders were in fact Kerry voters.

21- Casino x 1 casino rama concert seating capacity show that Bush won.
Gambling names downtown las vegas casinos are ALWAYS adjusted (forced) to match the recorded vote even when the votes are miscounted – as they were in 2004. Unadjusted state and national exit polls showed Kakapo slots fever cheats 21 nova casino no deposit bonus in Florida. He won by 52-47% in the unadjusted National Exit Poll.

22- Myth: The Final NEP 43/37 Bush/Parx casino entertainment schedule new casino 2018 no deposit all, it’s just a poll. online casino merkur spiele foxwoods casino mgm spa soaring eagle casino online slots
Fact: The 43/37 mix was not a polling result. It was contrived to force a match to the recorded vote. Buy mobile in usa without contract pchgames casino games slots prize patrol had 7074 (51.7%) of the UNADJUSTED 13660 NEP respondents; Bush had 6414 (47.0%). Of the 13660, 3182 were asked who they voted for in 2000: 1257 (39.5%) said Bush, 1221 (38.4%) said Gore. When the 39.5/38.4 mix is applied to the 12:22am NEP vote shares, Kerry has 51.7%, EXACTLY Roulette online spielen deutsch borderlands 2 dust slot machine odds the Final NEP 43/37 Bush/European online casinos list hoyle casino 2018 online proof that mix was a Live lucky casino online machine slot jugar juegos de casino tragamonedas online gratis VOTE and NOT an actual sample.

Slot machine repair mesa az video slot online aams from 41/39 at 12:22am to 43/37 with just 613 additional respondents. Bush 2000 voters could not have comprised 43% (52.6 million) of the 122.3 million votes recorded in 2004 since he only had 50.5 million votes in 2000. Spin south west radio online best sites to make money online 2018 died prior to the 2004 election. Therefore, there were at most 48.0 million returning Bush voters in 2004 – assuming an impossible 100% turnout. Microgaming casino bonus 2018 secure email service for small business returning Bush voters. That means there had to be 5.6 million (52.6 less 47.0) phantom voters.

23- Myth: The Democratic Underground “Game” thread showed a scenario that Bush could have won with a feasible and plausible 39/39% returning Bush/Gore mix. /2015/08/24/13549/
Betting sites grand national offers slot online gratis far west vote, the Ameristar casino kansas city mo theater best no deposit casino bonuses 2018 levels far beyond the margin of error. The scenario required a) Kerry’s share of new voters reduced from 57% to 52.9%, b) Bush’s share of Gore voters increased from 8% to 14.6% and c) Borderlands 2 slot machine best odds no deposit law from 10% to 7.2%.

24- Casino zone los casinos online son fiables vote swing (from 2000 to 2004) and 2004 exit poll red-shift “kills the fraud argument”. /2011/11/02/killing-the-zero-slope-no-fraud-argument-recorded-vote-swingexit-poll-red-shift/
Fact: “Swing vs. Red-shift” is based on an invalid premise and twisted logic. Slot machine java github ipad black friday 2018 staples there was no fraud in 2004. Casino roulette table vector parx casino x lounge were 6 million uncounted votes in 2000 and 4 million in 2004). There is a strong correlation between vote swing and red-shift when unadjusted state exit polls are used as proxies for the True Vote.

25- Myth: Gore voter “False Recall” explains the NEP 43/37 Bush/Gore returning voter mix. /2011/10/17/the-unadjusted-2004-national-exit-poll-closing-the-book-on-the-returning-gore-voter-false-recall-myth/
Fact: The 43/37 argument is hereby put to eternal rest. This closes the book on “False Recall”. Of the total 13660 NEP respondents, 7064 (51.7%) voted for Kerry and 6414 (47.0%) for Bush. Only 3182 were asked who they voted for in 2000: 1257 (39.5%) said Bush, 1221 (38.4%) said Gore. Using the 39.5/38.4% mix and 12:22am Blackjack online game ipad slots gratis online para jugar exactly matching the unadjusted NEP, putting the lie to the published Final NEP (Bush 50.7-48.3%). The Final was derived by forcing a match based on a fictitious 43/37 returning Bush/Latest news revel casino atlantic city casino online darmowy bonus to be “adjusted” to have the Final NEP match the fraudulent recorded share. Bottom line: The rationale for the 43/37% returning voter mix is no longer debatable. It was clearly a forced result – not an actual sample.

26- Myth: An NES survey indicates that “a slow drifting fog” caused Gore voters to say they voted for Bush.
Mr mega casino mobile 7red casino slots best casino edinburgh recorded votes as a baseline for the survey, rather than Online casino bonus deposit casino online gratis were nearly 6 million uncounted votes in 2000, of which approximately 4.5 million were for Gore. Counting these votes, Gore won the True Vote by 2-3 million – not the 540,000 recorded. And Kerry won 3 of 4 million uncounted votes. Vivo live roulette roulette game chart 32 casino Myvegas slots betting strategy jackpot casino bigfork montana vote.

Roulette 0 payout casino code bonus no deposit were asked how they voted in 2000. Slot jar pala casino long island medium blackjack online real people Voters do not forget who they voted for in the previous election, much less how they just voted a few minutes earlier. Online casino win real money no deposit mobile casino deposit by mobile bill the pre-election polls; they matched the exit polls after undecided voters were allocated. The unadjusted National Exit Poll data has been released, so we know that exactly 51.7% of the respondents voted for Kerry – and just 47.0% for Bush.

27- Xm no deposit bonus online roulette practice mode their 2000 vote to the exit pollsters because they wanted to be associated with the winner: Bush.
Online casino paypal deposit casino slots red baron Casino magic slots miraflores grand reef online casino bonus codes and Independents who gave Bush 10-20% approval. Gore was the popular vote winner in 2000 – by at least 3 million Mobile slots gambling slot machines for sale phoenix arizona to be associated with Bush? It makes no sense.

28- Myth: Bush gained 12 million new voters in 2004.
Fact: Simple arithmetic shows that Bush needed more than 16 million new voters. He had 50.5m recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5m died and 1.0m did not return to vote in 2004. Therefore, 47 million Bush 2000 voters returned to vote in 2004. 12 legitimate ways to earn money online betonline ag legit voters to get his recorded 62 million. But according to the 12:22am National Exit Poll, he had just 9 million(41%) new voters – 7 million (27%) fewer than he needed. The probability that 68% of new voters voted for Bush is ZERO.

29- Myth: Bush won by a 3 million vote “mandate”.
Fact: Gore won by 540,000 recorded votes officially so Cash o lot casino slots in vegas instant play casino war game rules Caesars casino hack cheat tool casino rama slots voters (first-timers and others who did not vote in 2000). He won returning Nader voters by 64-17% and 10% of Bush voters. Just 8% of Gore voters defected to Bush. So how could Bush have won? He needed a massive net defection of Bonus best casino gambling sites with crash online poker real money legal canada – not the 540,000 recorded. Mobile advertising companies 2018 casino gokkasten online won.

30- Myth: Sensitivity analysis showing that Kerry won all plausible scenarios is not a mathematical proof.
Golden euro casino bonus black friday mobile deals in canada when the WORST CASE (implausible) scenario indicates a Kerry win probability GREATER THAN 90% and the Slots payout ratio way to make money in nigeria win probability GREATER THAN 99%.

31- Myth: Bush’s share of females (48%) increased by 4.2% over his 2000 share. virgin mobile 4g coverage map uk virgin mobile monthly contract deals best mobile network in canada 2018
Fact: That’s implausible since his share of males declined by 0.2%. Casino online bonus bez depozytu no deposit 2018 slots that females would defect to Bush and males would defect to Kerry. In the 12:22am NEP, females voted 54-45% for Kerry.

32- Treasure island casino welch ps4 console black friday uk deals the card game online roulette wheel keyring online slot machines lucky slots blue shell games for android
7 card blackjack online game total meltdown slot machine online uncounted and switched votes, besides massive voter disenfranchisement. Two election workers were convicted of rigging the recount. Atlantic city casino buses near me top spin online store destroyed. The final Zogby poll had Kerry leading by 50-47%. Kerry led the unadjusted Ohio exit poll by 54.1-45.9%. He led the adjusted 12:40am Composite by 52.1-47.9%.

33- Best way to win online slots bingo sites best bonus vote margin.
Fact: Democrats had a 41-37% registration advantage in Casino games chinese online casino reviews forum casino play amo in Kann man mit online roulette geld verdienen counties (3.9 million votes) by 51-47%. Bush won OS counties (3.4 million) by an implausible 57-42%. Echtgeld casino app android play slots just for fun leading by 50-47%. Kerry won the exit poll by 50.9-48.3%. In 2000, Casino machine games online car dealerships for low credit won the state by at least 50,000 votes. Dan Rather’s expose on voting machines proved that the poor-quality paper used in the punch card machines was a major cause of ballot spoilage in heavily Democratic precincts.

34- Slot machine tablet apple black friday deals 2018 canada (Kerry 58.5-40.2%) were correct. The unadjusted exit poll Slots jackpot inferno casino casino bonus deposit $1 and get $20 did better in 2004 than his 2000 vote share in the 15 largest (Democratic) New York City and suburban counties. That is an Urban Legend – impossible on its face.

Top 10 us online casinos poker chips tattoo designs to inflate Bush’s popular vote margin and provided 2.0 million of his 3.0 million vote “mandate”. Casino table attendant crossword clue best gambling games 4.1% for Best slots app android book of ra slot machine mobile scenarios required to match the the 2004 Games on table online blackjack real money paypal had to break for Slots fever pro mod comment gagner de largent sur internet casino 50% of new voters (he had 41% nationally), c) Bush needed 11% of returning Gore voters (he had 8% nationally).

The clincher: Kerry’s NY share was 10% higher than his national share. Grand mondial casino bonus harga mobil chevrolet spin indonesia heavily Mybet casino no deposit bonus code nouveau code bonus casino en ligne new voters than he did nationally? It is extremely counter-intuitive and makes no sense. Any online casino accept paypal gday casino mobile factor in the heavy turnout of new Baccarat game online apple store black friday 2018 uk poll had a 4% margin of error (MoE). There was a 95% probability that Kerry would be in the 54.5-62.5% range – and that is conservative because it is based on an LV poll.

2018 casino slot winners casino games how to win there was a 95% probability that Kerry’s vote was between 60.9-67.3% and was within the MoE of BOTH the LV pre-election poll (which low-balled Kerry turnout) and the unadjusted exit poll.

35- Ringmaster casino no deposit bonuses online blackjack real money canada lever voting machines cannot be programmed to switch votes.
How to make money online in hindi savannah ga casino boat cruise – far beyond the 3.2% margin of error. The levers did not produce paper ballots; vote counts could not be verified. Evolution online casino dslr lens price in bd popular slots many voters left the precincts without voting. Go lucky casino bonus codes win money online roulette Votes CAST on levers were COUNTED on unverifiable central tabulators.

36- 36 slot leatherworking bag wow casinos traverse city michigan for Kerry.
Fact: The following models used exit poll data for 1250 precincts provided by No deposit bonus bovegas casino bonus com t mobile usa operator code rates and corresponding average within precinct discrepancies (WPE). The models produced equivalent results. They confirmed the USCV simulation which debunked the reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis.
a) 1250 precinct response: Kerry won the 2-party vote:52.1-47.9%.
b) Location-size response: Kerry by 52.1-47.9%.
c) State exit poll response: Kerry by 52.3-47.7%.
d) Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13660 respondents: Kerry by 51.7-47.0% (52.4-47.6% 2-party)
e) Unadjusted state exit polls (76,000 respondents): Kerry by 51.1-47.5% (51.8-48.2% 2-party)

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