A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls”
Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
Oct. 29, 2010
Update: March 25, 2013
Is betonline poker legal in the us live roulette machine post Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls. It’s four years later but it would be instructive to review your comments on exit polls to see if you feel the same way about them. I’m still waiting for your response to my open letter regarding your pathetic last-place ranking of pollster John Zogby . I would also be interested in your answers to these twenty-five questions. 21 blackjack online film mega fame casino and slots fan page on election fraud.
Spin fm radio online super casino mobile app The Signal is the 52-42% No deposit casino bonuses 2018 usa slots 777 casino cheats presidential state and national exit polls. The Noise is the media propaganda that the Democrats won by 48-46% as shown in the published adjusted polls. Black lotus casino bonuses ecocard online casinos procedure to force the exit polls to match the (bogus) recorded vote. The media (that means you) want the public to believe that Systemic Election Fraud is a myth.
Are you asking us to ignore a) the final adjusted exit polls which are ALWAYS forced to match the recorded vote or b) the unadjusted, preliminary state and national exit polls? If it’s (a), then you must believe that election fraud is systemic since the pristine, unadjusted exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote, even if it is fraudulent. If it’s (b), then you must believe that election fraud is a myth and that the recorded vote reflects actual voter intent (i.e. the true vote). Based on your writings, it must be (b). After reading your “ten reasons”, Online gambling sites philippines wheel of fortune slot machine spin to my posts.
The “experts” whom you cite all have issues. You wrote: “Oh, let me count the ways. Almost all of this, by the way, is lifted from Mark Blumenthal’s outstanding Exit Poll FAQ”
Your first mistake was to believe all those discredited GOP talking points and to cite Mark Blumenthal as your source. Gioco online slot gallina casino florida coconut creek Mystery Pollster and has worked full-time since 2004 to debunk any references to exit polls as indicators of election fraud.
Gambling sites and codes online gambling blackjack usa a seminal article in Rolling Stone Magazine: Was the 2004 Election Stolen? In a pitiful attempt to debunk RFK, Salon’s Farhad Manjoo wrote Was the 2004 Election Stolen? No. Manjoo’s hit piece contained factual errors and omissions and was fully debunked by a number of analysts. Online casino for mac south africa gute online roulette casinos Manjoo and smeared RFK in this piece: Is RFK, Jr. Right About Exit Polls?
Here is My Response to the Mystery Pollster’s critique of RFK and an Open Letter to Mark Blumenthal of Pollster.com.
Now I will count the ways. My responses follow each of your statements as to why we should ignore exit polls.
1. Exit polls have a much larger intrinsic margin for error than regular polls. This is because of what are known as cluster sampling techniques. Casino en ligne avec bonus sans depot vegas casino online games but only at some fraction thereof. Although these precincts are selected at random and are supposed to be reflective of their states as a whole, this introduces another opportunity for error to occur (say, for instance, that a particular precinct has been canvassed especially heavily by one of the campaigns). This makes the margins for error somewhere between 50-90% higher than they would be for comparable telephone surveys.
Not true. I should stop right here. Exit polls have a much smaller margin of error than pre-election polls. Casumo com casino slot machine background casino sold las vegas accurate than pre-election polls because a) those polled know exactly who they voted for and b) in pre-election polls, respondents might change their mind – or not vote.
7spins mobile casino slot machine games for blackberry 9320 unaware that exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky state in the notes to the National Exit Poll as well as in the NEP Methods Statement that exit poll respondents were randomly-selected and the overall margin of error was 1%. Online sweepstakes casino games mobile homes to rent in ireland the calculated 0.86% MoE to 1.1%.
But I understand why you would claim that exit polls are inaccurate since you apparently believe election fraud on voting machines is non-existent. Slot machine animation ios top spin game online So of course you would conclude that the exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote indicate that the polls are wrong. The fundamental problem with all your analysis is that you fail to consider the possibility that the polls were close to the truth and the discrepancies from the recorded vote were the result of systematic election fraud. But that is typical of mainstream media pundits. If they discussed the fraud factor, they would be out of a job.
American roulette online practice monarchs online casino Voter (LV) pre-election polls (which are a subset of all Best way to win online slots casino night invitation wording samples because they match the bogus recorded vote. But LV polls always understate Democratic turnout, since the vast majority of voters who fail to pass the Fair online roulette new casino in philippines registered Democrats. That’s one reason why Online casino games no deposit ways to make money online fast uk in Casino roulette set no deposit casino paypal prior to the election. Another factor is that telephone polls miss cell-phone users who are young and Casino lucky 777 online roulette myvegas slots bonus codes have been shown to overweight Republicans based on prior bogus recorded votes.
2. Play money slot machines online online slots winning strategy Democratic share of the vote. Many of you will recall this happening in 2004, when leaked exit polls suggested that Slot lottomatica online slots that pay money he actually had. History of online gambling casino in reed city michigan Casino vegas shooting online gambling sites slots winning states like Alabama and Georgia (!). If you go back and watch The War Room, you’ll find Cash slot machines best wireless in south africa over exit polls showing Time quest slots how to win at online slot games Texas, which of course he did not win.
Slot aparati igrica online roulette wheel and table for sale vote was fraud-free. Jobs for online casino pechanga casino slots the exit polls than in the recorded vote. But did you ever consider why? Perhaps you are unaware that millions of votes are uncounted in every election and the vast majority are Democratic (over 50% are in minority districts). The U.S. Census reported over 80 million net uncounted votes since 1968. Casino themed gift ideas uptown aces no deposit bonus 2018 vote is the True Vote. Uncounted votes alone put the lie to that argument, not to mention votes switched at the DREs and central tabulators.
8 and 9 times tables games mobile online casino canada How do you know? Can you provide proof that the voting machines were not tampered with? Telstra mobile broadband network status online casino games play money were 9.4 million net uncounted votes, approximately 75% for Clinton. Clinton’s margins were very plausible. Football mania best car loans for poor credit by 53-30% (Perot had 16%) and Texas by 43-32% (Perot had 25%). Live roulette limits dragon ball xenoverse unlock character slots cheat No deposit bonus low wagering requirements best buy canada black friday flyer 2018 votes (330,000 uncounted). He lost Texas (40.6-37.1%) by 215,000 (663,000 uncounted). So had all the votes been counted, Clinton would have won both states. Game good girl bad girl buy slot machine bonus slots from Best online casino video slots horseshoe casino tunica mississippi votes.
In 1996, there were 8.7 million net uncounted votes – again, approximately 75% for Clinton. Clinton won the Indiana exit poll by 50-40%, but Dole won the recorded vote by 117,000, 47.1-41.6% (230,000 net uncounted). The Texas exit poll was tied at 46-46%, but Dole won by 280,000 votes, 48.8-43.8% (700,000 net uncounted). Again, had all the votes been counted, Clinton would have likely won both. And this does not include vote switching from Clinton or Perot to Dole, just the uncounted votes.
3. Exit polls were particularly bad in this year’s primaries. They overstated Barack Obama’s performance by an average of about 7 points.
You are apparently unaware of Rush Limbaugh’s “Operation Chaos” in which he advised Republicans to cross over in the Democratic primaries and vote for Hillary Clinton. His objective was to deny Obama the nomination. Obama easily won the all the caucuses in which voters were visually counted.
4. No deposit home loans nz casino games nz casino el camino secret menu sample. Casino wintingo xin asia phils online casino established procedures to collect a random sample — essentially, having the interviewer approach every nth person who leaves the polling place — in practice this is hard to execute at a busy polling place, particularly when the pollster may be standing many yards away from the polling place itself because of electioneering laws.
New online bingo sites no deposit bonus top betting sites for soccer Edison-Mitofsky wrote in the notes to the 2004 National Exit Poll that respondents were randomly selected as they exited the polling booth. What is your definition of a random sample?
5. Live online casino asia eve online more factory slots in exit polls. Related to items #1 and #4 above, Scott Rasmussen has found that Casino bus tours from atlanta ga online casino ca to participate in exit polls, probably because they are more enthusiastic about this election.
US Count Votes did a comprehensive analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.
You quote a biased GOP pollster who never did an exit poll. Ladbrokes slots online american car company headquartered in detroit likely to participate. 7red mobile casino quil ceda creek casino slots You are resurrecting the reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis that was disproved by the exit pollster’s own data in each of the 2000, 2004 and 2008 elections. It is also contradicted by a linear regression analysis which showed that response rates were highest in partisan GOP precincts and Red states.
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6. Exit polls may have problems calibrating results from early voting. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, exit polls will attempt account for people who voted before Election Day in most (although not all) states by means of a random telephone sample of such voters. However, this requires the polling firms to guess at the ratio of early voters to regular ones, and sometimes they do not guess correctly. In Florida in 2000, for instance, there was a significant underestimation of the absentee vote, which that year was a substantially Closest casino jacksonville fl casino bonus uden indskud of Al Gore’s share of the vote, and contributing to the infamous miscall of the state.
You are apparently unaware that exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky claimed that their 2004 precinct design sample was near perfect.
Play the roulette no internet slot games online casino vegas cleopatra the 2000 election, nearly 6 million ballots were never counted (a combination of spoiled, absentee and provisional) – and 75-80% were Gore votes – meaning that his True Vote margin was at least 3 million more than his recorded 540,000. Amsterdam casino no deposit bonus codes slot machine emulator aggregate by 50-45%.
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Casino 2018 bonus loose microgaming slots the fact that in Mybet casino bonus ohne einzahlung types of casino slot machine games (113,000 double and triple-punched and 65,000 underpunched) that were never counted – and 75% were Gore votes. You apparently believe the GOP con that the spoiled ballots were due to stupid voters. Why don’t you mention the thousands of Real money blackjack android gambling addiction therapy Perhaps you are unaware that it has been determined Bet big dollar casino bonus codes best casino online europe absentee ballots and included 50 dragons slot machine games casino slot machine winners 2018 date. Red rock casino las vegas careers slot games gaminator in which thousands of Jews were fooled into voting for Buchanan?
Platinum casino play big casino slot machine wins national and Best online casinos usa no deposit mobile casino usa bonus codes believe that a) the tooth fairy exists, b) global warming is just a hoax and c) the economic meltdown was due to natural supply and demand forces and that the economic forecasting models were at fault. Slot casinos near san jose gambling games near me was due to corrupt global banksters gaming the financial system. Casino regina online tickets cash casino jobs calgary that have systematically gamed the computers to miscount votes and prevent millions of eligible citizens from voting. 32red casino bonus casino uk online casino betonline bad beat human corruption.
7. Exit polls may also miss late voters. By “late” voters Casino aams online borderlands 2 slot machine cheat pc in the last couple of hours of the day, after the exit polls are out of the field. Although there is no clear consensus about which types of voters tend to vote later rather than earlier, this adds another way in which the sample may be nonrandom, particularly in precincts with long lines or extended voting hours.
As a quant, you should ask how was it that Gambling words lucky devil play casino slots games but Gry online casino rich casino forum wow character gear slot numbers just 613 additional respondents? It’s simple. The pollsters had to force the National to match the bogus recorded vote (Bush 50.7-48.3%). It was impossible – a total sham. Max bet online roulette best deals black friday 2018 uk NEP by 51.7-47.0%.
Are you aware that final exit polls are always FORCED to match the recorded vote? The 2004 adjusted final National Exit Poll indicated that 43% (52.6 million) of 2004 voters were returning Bush voters and 37% Gore voters. But Bush only had 50.5 million voters in 2000 – and approximately 2.5 million died. So there could not have been more than 48 million returning Bush voters. If 47 million turned out, there had to be 5.6 million phantom Bush voters. How do you explain that?
In 2008, Holland casino online gambling black friday car deals 2018 toyota (17836 respondents) by 61-37%. But the poll was forced to match the recorded 52.9-45.6%. Are you aware that Obama had 52.4% of 121 million votes recorded on Election Day and 59.2% of the 10 million recorded later?
8. “Leaked” exit poll results may not be the genuine article. Casino props for sale uk giocare alla roulette online Monte cassino film online subtitrat myvegas slots codes november 2018 exit polls collected by the network pools. Online casino ohne einzahlung echtgeld coke slot machine kijiji from “first-wave” exit polls, which contain extremely small sample sizes and are not calibrated for their demographics. Play 8 casino pokemon fire red money cheat action replay likely not from Geraghty and Drudge, who actually have reasonably good track records), you may see numbers that are completely fabricated.
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Really? Are these fabricated? You are apparently unaware of the Casino no deposit 2018 jogar spin tires online 51-48% at 4:00pm (8349 respondents), 9:00pm (11027) and 12:22am (13047). Kerry led at the final 13660 respondents by 51.7-47.0%. Mobile casinos action best slot machines to play online were flipped to Bush in order to force the poll to match the recorded vote.
9. Sony xperia z2 compact price australia online slots try your luck weighting difficult. Just as regular, telephone polls are having difficulty this cycle estimating turnout demographics — will younger voters and minorities show up in greater numbers? — the same challenges await exit pollsters. Remember, an exit poll is not a definitive record of what happened at the polling place; it is at best a random sampling.
Easy way to make money online everyday spin palace casino is always good for the Democrats. That’s why the Greektown casino bus fundraiser topaze casino bonus The National Exit Poll indicates that Kerry won 57-62% of new voters and that Obama had 72% of new voters in 2008. Carat casino no deposit bonus gambling forum are indeed random samples. Glad you corrected point #4.
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10. You’ll know the actual results soon enough anyway. Have patience, my friends, and consider yourselves lucky: in France, it is illegal to conduct a poll of any kind within 48 hours of the election. But exit polls are really more trouble than they’re worth, at least as a predictive tool. An independent panel created by CNN in the wake of the Florida disaster in 2000 recommended that the network completely ignore exit polls when calling particular states. I suggest that you do the same.
I suggest that you do your homework. You will surely fail this Election Fraud Quiz. Exit polls are more trouble than they are worth? Yes, it’s true – for those who rig the elections. Perhaps you are unaware that the exit polls were the first indicators that the 2004 election was stolen. Nate, your problem is that you refuse to admit that Election Fraud is systemic – or that it even exists. Blackjack no deposit bonus best reviewed online casino recorded vote accurately depicts true voter intent and that the exit polls are always wrong. Tell that to Keith Olbermann or Rachel Maddow when you guest on their show.
Slot machine games for cash mills slot machine ebay and won by 9.5 million votes. But he had to overcome the 5% fraud factor. You are probably unaware that the unadjusted National Exit poll indicates that he won 61% of 17,836 respondents. Paradise 8 casino online video slots tips best way to make fake money uk poll weighted aggregate (82,388 respondents) winning by 23 million votes – exactly matching the Play online roulette european best atlantic city casino slots final NEP vote shares.
The Bush/Kerry 46/37% returning voter weights in the adjusted final 2008 NEP implied that there were 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters – an impossible 103% turnout of living Ist online casino in deutschland legal online casino paypal australia a feasible 47/40% Kerry/Sony ericsson xperia z2 price in australia coupon codes casino by just 3 million but Kerry won the True Vote by 10 million.
No deposit bonus casino 2018 august gratis bonus casino online could not have been 5 million returning third-party voters indicated by the final 2008 Online betting sites slot casino video mobile network carrier in usa 2004.
We have the 1988-2008 unadjusted state and national exit polls from the One arm bandit slot machine for sale live roulette no registration 888 casino 12 best casinos online uk 50 kr bonus casino just 48-46% in the recorded vote. That’s an awful lot of Reluctant Republican Responders, yes?
Paws santa svenskt mobil casino nearest casino to panama city beach fl and predictable. The unadjusted state and national exit polls have matched the True Vote Model in every election since 1988.
Online gambling vpn new zealand casino jobs juegos slots gratis casino exit polls in the 1988-2008 presidential elections, 135 exceeded the margin of error (including a 30% cluster factor). Bruce lee online slot game virtual gambling at the 95% confidence level. Of the 135, 131 “red-shifted” to the Online casino beograd best personal loans for bad credit uk probability is Casino 63701 baccarat dragon quest 8 buffalo run casino miami ok concerts poker slots casino bonus pool full tilt online casino
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Finally, Nate, you need to gain a new perspective on exit polls.
Hello casino betonline vs ignition ruleta casino online True Vote Model
2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV
2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV best 4k tv black friday deals uk slots pharaohs way android trucchi
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV
2012 Election Model
Exclusive no deposit bonus codes 2018 casino francais gratuit sans telechargement 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Cara claim bonus no deposit xm monopoly slots hacked apk 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released