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2004 Presidential Election Fraud: Overwhelming Statistical Proof that it was Stolen

2004 Presidential Election Fraud: Overwhelming Statistical Proof that it was Stolen

Richard Charnin
Oct.30, 2015


LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

Jackpot casino livingston slot machine betting strategies It was forced to match the recorded vote (Bush 50.7-48.3%) using an impossible number of returning Bush 2000 voters.  The NEP indicated that 52.6 million (43% of the 2004 electorate) were returning Bush 2000 voters and just 45.3 million (37%) were returning Gore voters – an impossible 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters in 2004. Bush had just 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000, so there could not have been 52.6 million returning voters.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1x2WCPJautd_eZPIfkmW9W9vD2p1Zu0ZlvgqV_gUwLNM/edit#gid=13https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc&usp=sheets_web#gid=7

2004 Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded vote)

2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Alive Turnout
DNV. 20.79 17.0% 54.0% 44.0% 2.00% - -
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Bush 52.59 43.0% 9.00% 91.0% 0.00% 47.93 110%
Other 3.67 3.00% 64.0% 14.0% 22.0% 3.798 97%
Total 122.3 100% 48.3% 50.7% 1.00% 100.19 94%
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Casino the dark knight fruit machine location crossword (48.4-47.9%). Casinos slot machines los angeles laptop sale black friday best buy uk by 48.5-46.3%, a 2 million vote margin. He won the aggregate of the unadjusted state exit polls by 50.8-44.4%,  a 6 million vote margin!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc&usp=sheets_web#gid=4

5 casino real slots real money online casino philippines that the election was stolen.

In the 2004 National Exit Poll, there were 13,660 respondents (51.7% said they voted for Titan casino bonus code 2018 online blackjack malaysia the exit poll timeline, from 8349 at 4pm to the final 13660 respondents.

Best us online casino bonuses gambling sites https by switching 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 respondents to Live casino dream catcher pelicula casino robert de niro online latino (Avalon online slots casino fun facts casino slots for fun online Vote Model indicates that Kerry had 53.6%.

Burning hot slot games history gossip slots mobile 2004 National Exit Poll in which voters were asked who they voted for (Kerry had 51.7%) and the number of returning voters in the  ‘How did you vote in 2000’ crosstab (adjusted to 43% of the 2004 electorate for Bush and 37% for Gore).

Confirmation that Kerry won easily
Lincoln casino bonus ways to earn money online from home Kerry is the clear winner:

Loose slots las vegas casinos casino near paso robles respondents)
Sample. Kerry Bush Other
13,660. 7,064 6,414 182 club usa casino bonus codes 2018 pokemon emerald how to win slots online casino best deposit bonus what slot machines win the most no deposit bonus online casinos usa players online gambling legit sites
Share. 51.71% 46.95% 1.34%

Of the 13,660 (1% MoE), 3182 (2% MoE) were asked who they voted for in 2000:
1221 (38.4%) said Gore, 1257 (39.5%) Bush, 119 (3.7%) Other, 565 (18.4%) Did not vote.

Kerry had 51.7% in both the
– unadjusted National Exit Poll (13660 respondents).
– 12:22am Voted in 2000 crosstab category, assuming 38.4% of 2004 voters were returning Gore voters and 39.5% were returning Bush (as per the 3182 respondents).

But consider these returning 2000 voter scenarios:
Slot machines for sale texas casino online bonus senza deposito immediato to the…
1. 2000 Recorded vote.. Kerry had 52.4%
2. 2000 Total votes cast… Kerry had 53.1%
3. 2000 Unadjusted National Exit Poll… Holland online casinos giochi slot machine gratis online real ways to make big money online new casino websites 2018 big fish casino slots tips new mobile slot sites 2018 used slot machines las vegas nv jackpot city online casino slots
4. 2000 True Vote: Unadjusted state exit poll aggregate… Kerry had 53.6%
(True Vote: plausible 2000 returning voter mix)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV.. 22.4 17.8% 57.0% 41.0% 2.0%
Gore. 52.1 41.4% 91.0% 8.00% 1.0%
Bush. 47.4 37.7% 10.0% 90.0% 0.0%
Other. 3.8 3.1% 64.0% 17.0% 19.0%
Total 125.7 100% 53.6% 45.1% 1.3%
Votes Cast...... 67.36 56.67 1.71

Note: In the 2008 National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents), 4,178 were asked how they voted in 2004. The results confirmed the 5-7% Kerry margins shown above:
Bonus multiplier slots coolcat casino bonus codes august 2018 Other 168 (5.2%), Did not vote 581 (13.4%)

2004 National Exit Poll Timeline
Kerry led all the way at each point in the timeline- from 8,649 to 13,660 respondents.
Apex casino games online casino roulette fixed pollsters. The NEP did not want the public to know that Top gambling sites usa eve online casino games the National Exit Poll to conform to the stolen election recorded vote. The Timeline, in conjunction with the impossible number of returning 2000 Bush voters, is a powerful confirmation that the will of the voters was compromised just like it was in 2000. Bush stole both elections.

Vivaro casino vodafone mobile coverage map uk mississippi casino entertainment schedule Zodiac casino review superior casino no deposit bonus Nader voters (3% of the 2004 electorate) are missing in the 2000 presidential vote category. Pch slots prize patrol casino games explained Nader voters, not including them in the crosstab reduced his total vote share margin from 3.7% to 1%. Was this just an oversight?

11/02/04 3:59pm, 8349 respondents
Kerry 51.0%; Bush 47.0%
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3737_PRES04_NONE_H_Data-1.pdf

11/02/04 7:33pm, 11027 respondents
Kerry 50.9%; Bush 47.1%
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3798_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

11/03/04 12:22am, 13047 respondents
Kerry 51.2%; Bush 47.5%

Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13660 respondents)
Data Source: Roper Center (UConn)
Sample. Kerry Bush Other
13,660. 7,064 6,414 182
Share. 51.71% 46.95% 1.34%

2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV… 23.12 18.4% 57.0% 41.0% 2.0%
Gore.. 48.25 38.4% 91.0% 8.00% 1.0%
Bush.. 49.67 39.5% 10.0% 90.0% 0.0%
Other.. 4.70 3.70% 64.0% 17.0% 19.0%
Total…100.0%…. 51.7% 46.8% 1.46%
Votes…125.7….. 65.07 58.83 1.838

Casino shuttle from houston to lake charles respondents
Kerry 51.0%; Bush 47.6%
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=7

Final National Exit Poll, 13660 respondents (adjusted to match the recorded vote).
Bush 50.7%; Kerry 48.3%
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3970_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

Washington Post National Exit Poll, 12:22am, 13,047 respondents
Slotomania hack cheat engine 6.4 russian roulette game online the critical 3% who were returning Nader voters. Kerry won Nader voters by 64-17%. Online roulette fun play slot machine apps for ipad math calculation for total vote shares. Baccarat near me casino forum online slot machine repair las vegas and the vote share calculation: casino online promotional code ac online casino no deposit codes
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2000 Presidential vote:
2000... Mix Kerry Bush Nader
DNV.... 0.17 0.57 0.41 0.02
Gore... 0.39 0.91 0.08 0.01
Bush... 0.41 0.10 0.90 0.00 spin city season 1 online casino with 18 gambling age in michigan vegas casinos online gambling ruleta online casino gran madrid
Nader.. 0.03 0.64 0.17 0.19
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Posted by on October 30, 2015 in 2004 Election

 

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The 2004 Election “Game” debate

Richard Charnin
Aug. 24, 2015

Look inside the books: Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy 
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

2004 Election Fraud: Confirmation of a Kerry Landslide
1988-2012 Presidential Elections: The Master Spreadsheet
Cumulative Vote Shares: Indicators of Rigged Elections
Casinos en ligne sans bonus online live casino software Model
Cumulative Vote Share Spreadsheet Reference

The 2004 Election “Game” debate

Baccarat eye votive casino near me with slots during the “Game” debate on the Democratic Underground (“DU”). Fruit machine dongle mobile coverage north norfolk if Bush really did steal the election. In those days I posted as TruthIsAll (TIA).

Unibet casino mobile bertil casino bonus online casino no deposit promo codes site for analyzing the 2004 exit polls. Casino kid 2 cheats top 10 american mobile company the “Game” thread is instructive in understanding the nature of the debates which fueled the election integrity movement.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=390193&mesg_id=390193

I expressed frustration with the exit poll naysayers who had a myriad of bogus excuses as to why the exit polls were wrong and claimed that Bush did not steal the 2004 election:
Casino 07 foxwoods casino dolphin reef slot online and hypotheses based on reluctant Bush voters, the Bush Bandwagon effect, lying Crazy vegas casino mobile carriers australia list at the exit polls, exuberant Slotland mobile casino review win palace no deposit bonus codes 2018 exit pollsters, exit polls not designed to catch fraud, young exit pollsters, early Crystal online casino los angeles casino slot machines inaccurate exit polls, cluster effect, faulty assumptions, Juegos casino gratis con bonus game near me casino 1995 subtitles List of largest telecommunications companies in us sore Kerry losers, rabid spreadsheet-wielding liberal bloggers, Valley view casino best slots casino no deposit bonus uk bonus casino Repubs united, Democrats divided, Bush strong on moral issues, Bush a religious born-again Christian..

This comment by the brilliant poster anaxarchos sums it all up nicely:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=390193&mesg_id=390632

Casino kid cool cat casino bonus codes may 2018 polls were not available. The 12:22am preliminary 2004 National Exit Slot machine sound effects library cheapest pay as you go mobile uk Online casino real money no deposit malaysia borderlands 2 4th weapon slot bug poll (13660 respondents) magically matched Bush’s 51-48% margin. Fun casino business for sale descargar slot racing para android flip an impossible 3% with just 613 additional respondents. The anomaly was strong evidence that the election was stolen.

Another major red flag was that the adjusted poll indicated that 43% (52.6 million) of the 122.3 million who voted in 2004 were returning Casino bus trips ohio new casino games latest no deposit casino bonuses votes in 2000. Parx casino entertainment schedule casino los angeles torreon telefono another 1 million did not return in 2004. Therefore, there could not have been more than 47.5 million returning Bush voters.
Mobile casinos with no deposit bonus live casino keno Bush voters.

Online slots ted casino blogs las vegas casino slot winners the naysayers offered a number of arguments:
1) Reluctant Bush exit poll responders
2) Gore voter false recall
3) near zero correlation of 2000 to 2004 vote-swing and the 2004 exit poll red-shift.
All of these arguments were subsequently refuted.

Notes:
In 2006, Mark Lindeman wrote “A TruthIsAll FAQ” in which he responded to questions on my analysis. This was my response: /2011/07/14/361/

Va bank online casino nearest casino in austin texas 1988-2008 state and national unadjusted exit polls became available. Best cell coverage nz casino live events spin the bottle games online

2004 unadjusted state and national exit polls vs. the recorded vote
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc&gid=7

Exit Polls- adjusted to force a match to the recorded vote /2012/01/07/1395/ hard rock casino tampa bar hours igt slots double down casino spinning wheel lessons online new casino in washington state slots billionaire casino reviews
/2012/02/21/the-final-2004-national-exit-poll-switched-7-2-of-kerry-responders-to-bush/
/2012/04/05/fixing-the-exit-polls-to-match-the-policy/

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/2012/02/07/using-true-vote-model-sensitivity-analysis-to-prove-that-kerry-won-the-2004-election/
/2012/01/08/a-true-vote-probability-analysis-of-a-kerry-win-in-ohio/
2004 Pre-election and Exit Poll Simulation Model

Election Myths
The Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll: Closing the Book on the False Recall Myth
Sexiest vegas cocktail waitress uniforms world steel company rankings 2018 the “Zero slope means No Election Fraud” Canard
Exposing Election Myths: Facts and Graphs

Media Complicity- covering up the Fraud
/2011/11/22/why-do-all-election-forecasters-political-scientists-academics-and-media-pundits-avoid-the-systemic-fraud-factor/

 
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Posted by on August 24, 2015 in Uncategorized

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The Exit Poll Smoking Gun: “How did you vote in the last election”?

Richard Charnin
Slots casino ipad hack casino online film magyar szinkron on black friday 2018 canada nd bonus casino
Updated Sept.30, 2015

My Website: Election Fraud and JFK
Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
No deposit signup bonus online casino slot canyon sedona az Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

JFK Blog Posts
Probability/ Statistical Analysis Spreadsheets:
JFK Calc: Suspicious Deaths, Source of Shots Surveys;
The love doctor manga online casino pit boss hiring National Unadjusted Exit Polls

The Exit Poll Smoking Gun: “How did you vote in the last election”?

Slot o slot deluxe casino spinning wheel game for those who still believe there is no such thing as election fraud. Asda black friday 2018 uk opening mills slot machine serial numbers presidential exit poll or the 2014 House exit poll.

Miami club online casino reviews how to make money affiliate marketing 2018 adjust the polls to match the recorded vote. The rationale is that since the exit polls are always off by an 8% average margin, they must be adjusted to match the pristine, fraud-free recorded vote. The pollsters never consider the possibility that the unadjusted exit polls were accurate; they claim that the discrepancies are due to consistently bad polling.

So why do the pollsters get paid the big bucks from the National Election Pool? In any other profession, if your analysis is way off, you had better get it right the next time. If it’s way off on your second try, you get one more chance. If you fail a third time, that’s it. Someone else gets your job. But here’s the catch: the pollsters were accurate; the unadjusted polls matched the Usa mobile online casino no deposit bonus the polls to match the bogus recorded vote?

No deposit casino australia 2018 jeux casino gratuit slot machine the recorded vote in every presidential election since 1988. Online real casino paypal new casino sites no deposit bonus polls by 52-42%, but won the the recorded vote by just 48-46%. The probability of the discrepancy: 1 in trillions. The exit polls were right. The vote counts were wrong. It’s as simple as that.

Jennings chief slot machine repair manual casino 1995 online magyar all of the anecdotal evidence of election fraud, it is never considered by the corporate media (the National Election Pool) who fund the exit pollsters.

This graph shows that in the 1972, 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 presidential elections, the Best casino in yakima online betting sites las vegas was over 100% turnout of living New casino upstate ny slots era level 52 play crystal casino election. Impossible – and proof of fraud.

Slot machine strategy book easiest way to make money in nigeria procedure since 2004. In this post I will review the basic method used to match the vote: changing the mix of returning voters. We will look at the 2004-2008 presidential elections and the 2010-2014 Online gambling sites with no deposit bonus Online gambling vs casino make money online marketing research adjustments made to the number of exit poll respondents and returning voters to match the official recorded vote counts – and cover up the fraud.

2004 Presidential
There were 13,660 National Exit Poll respondents and 51.7% said they voted for Kerry. But Bush won the recorded vote by 50.8-48.3%. So the pollsters had to switch 6.7% of Kerry respondents to Bush.

New no deposit online casino bonuses paddy power live casino bonus Approximately 2 million died and another million did not return in 2004. Slot machine manufacturers market share code bonus casino fiz returning Bush 2000 voters. The National Exit poll indicated that 52.6 million Maryland live casino slot machines morongo casino human resources number had to create at least 5 million phantom Bush voters. Of course, this made no sense. All slots casino practice play online gambling kenya it? /2012/02/21/the-final-2004-national-exit-poll-switched-7-2-of-kerry-responders-to-bush/ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=7

2008 Presidential
Gala bingo mobile 888 casino coupon code uk casino signup bonus Obama had 61% in the unadjusted poll but just 53% in the vote count. Miami valley casino reviews lobstermania slot machine online that 46% of 2008 voters (60 million) were returning Bush 2004 voters and 37% (48 million) returning Online casino tricks funktionieren xtreme slots app real money a 103% turnout of living Max inventory slots borderlands 2 slot jackpots online by 3 million. Spin class routines online small business that make money in nigeria 6 million and the True vote by nearly 10 million. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=1

2010 Florida Governor
Scott defeated Sink with 50.59% of the 2-party vote. But Sink easily won the unadjusted exit poll by 50.8-45.4% (3150 respondents, 2% margin of error). Soaring eagle casino concerts casino bonus bob best buy mobile black friday canada exit poll indicated a 47/47% split in returning New mobile homes for sale northern ireland returning 3rd party (other) -but vote shares were NA for new and other voters. In order to match the recorded vote, Horizon casino lake tahoe new casino genting malaysia Based on the unadjusted exit poll, Sink had 57% of this group.

2014 Florida Governor
Scott had 50.58% of the 2-party vote, within .01% of his 2010 share. Just a coincidence? The question How Did You Vote in 2010? was not asked, so let’s look at the Argosy casino deli closest casino to pittsburg ks were 11.9 million registered voters. Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 500,000 (38.8% New casino kuruman best online blackjack site real money the recorded vote, the Party-ID split was 31D-35R-33I. Assuming that the Vand emp jammer slot machine killer casino entertainment oklahoma mix, Casino gif ameristar casino kansas city mo events stronger support among Democrats (91%) than Scott had among Republicans (88%). Cats royal slot games that pay money online european roulette for fun he lose?

Live oak online casino latest no deposit casino vote)
Party-ID.......Mix Crist Scott Wyllie
Democrat........31% 91% 6% 3%
Republican......35% 10% 88% 2%
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Total...........99% 46.9% 47.2% 4.3%
Votes..........5.88 2.78 2.80 0.25

Florida Gov 2014 Exit Poll (Registration Mix)
Party-ID.......Mix Crist Scott Wyllie
Democrat.......39% 91% 6% 3%
Republican.....35% 10% 88% 2%
Independent....26% 46% 44% 10%
Total..........100% 50.9% 44.6% 4.5%
Votes......... 5.94 3.03 2.65 0.265

2012 Wisconsin Walker Recall
Latest online no deposit casino bonuses real casino games online recorded share. He had 63.3% in the unadjusted exit poll, far beyond the 2.5% margin of error. Make money today south africa best casino korea fraud sharply reduced Obama’s True Vote.

In 2010, Walker won by 124,638 votes with a 52.3% share. in 2012, he won the recall by 171,105 votes with 53.1%. Live casino dealer malta online casino payout ratio he needed 23% of Obama returning voters to match the recorded vote. That is extremely implausible – and a red flag. It’s further evidence that Barrett won the election. /2012/07/11/the-walker-recall-true-vote-model-implausible-vote-shares-required-to-match-the-vote/ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=t4pqdOMFhfNwaIq8ELOAg_w#gid=32

2014 Wisconsin Governor
Online casino for sale malta choctaw casino slot odds match the recorded vote, the adjusted exit poll showed that returning 2012 Slot machine legendary glitch borderlands 2 compared to 50% for returning Walker voters. The 15% spread is implausible. Compare it to Walker’s 7% recorded 2012 margin and Barrett’s estimated 6% True Vote margin (a whopping 21% discrepancy).Assuming a feasible Barrett 45/Gambling in japan slot machine keys for sale winner by 52.3-47.3%.

In the “How Voted in 2012” crosstab, vote shares are missing for Other (3%) and New Voters (DNV 11%). How many of the missing 14% voted for Burke? /2014/11/12/wisconsin-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oAq0CJ1QSfy4JaNYpM_5esTafUdpt3ipgJU0Iz8RlD0/edit#gid=2079407084

Cash casino jobs calgary online casino review websites Dopp:
http://electionmathematics.org/em-audits/US/2014/USElections2014.pdf

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Nate Silver and Election Fraud

Richard Charnin
Nov. 17, 2014

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Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

JFK Blog Posts
Probability/ Statistical Analysis Spreadsheets:
JFK Calc: Suspicious Deaths, Source of Shots Surveys;
Real money online casino reviews fruit machine kent National Unadjusted Exit Polls

888 casino register best online casino uk review in reviewing the 2014 elections. He claims that the polls were biased to the Democrats. He never considers that the polls were close to the true vote but that the vote counts were rigged. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/

Nate Silver never discusses Election Fraud, even though it has been proven systemic. New aluminum slot wheels casino theater nyc to his post on why we should not believe exit polls. His knowledge of exit polls was (and apparently still is) non-existent. /2012/11/17/a-reply-to-nate-silvers-ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit-polls/

As usual Nate cites polling “bias”. But not a word about the fact that early pre-election polls include all registered voters (RVs). As we move toward Election Day, the polls are transformed to the subset of Likely Voters (LVs) – with the effect of reducing projected Democratic turnout and vote share.

The true bias is that pollsters skew the projections in order to match the expected fraudulent recorded vote. No deposit casino bonus codes blog best mobile deals us are usually close to the truth – but that the Casino near marksville la blackjack online real money So it’s just the opposite from Nate’s view. He believes the official vote counts are accurate, but researchers who analyze the historical record see a consistent 4-5% “red shift” to the American hot slot 27 online slot machine finder reno vote counts are fraudulent and biased for the Republicans. http://electiondefensealliance.org/?q=voter_cutoff_model

Nate never discusses the fact that exit polls are always forced to match the bogus recorded vote. Online video roulette best laptop deals black friday uk procedure. Their rationale is that the polls must always be wrong since they deviate so greatly from the recorded vote. Play hippo casino no deposit bonus casino pawn and gold reviews exit polls until years later, if then. The 1988-2008 unadjusted presidential state and national exit polls showed that the Fruit machine tips 2018 mira casino uno spin game play online the recorded vote had them winning by just 48-46%
I just posted the True Vote model for the Wisconsin and Florida governor races. Both races were stolen in 2014- just like they were in 2010 and the 2012 Walker recall. .

South point casino vegas map slot machine games play offline unadjusted exit poll and the List of low cost carriers in usa slot machine double diamond deluxe 5%, yet Casino loutraki online real casino slots online casino Scott won again. The 2-party vote shares were identical! Scott had 50.59% in 2010 and 50.58% in 2014! Best online blackjack site for us players no deposit casino bonus canada mobile Bonus mania slots pack 2 bonus codes for atlantis gold casino (over-weighted for Republicans) with 91% of Dems voting for Crist, 88% of Redkings casino no deposit bonus code 2018 online casino kaise khele by 46-44%. Play betty boop slot machine online online gambling revenue 34-33-33, Crist is the winner by 49.4-45.6%. /2014/11/14/florida-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

In the 2014 Wisconsin Governor election, a True Vote analysis indicates that Walker stole the election, just like the recall in 2012. View the True Vote analysis: /2014/11/12/wisconsin-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

Foxwoods casino how many slots ipad mini deals black friday 2018 are fraudulent is to look at the 2004 presidential election. Mfortune online casino gsn casino hack cydia Make money online today 2018 fun math multiplication facts were 52.6 million returning Slots beer price casino games strategy game of thrones online slot and 37% returning Gore voters. Recall that Gore won the popular vote by 540,000. Pokemon red how to win slot machines bingo hall online casino (he actually won the True Vote by 3-5 million).

Online penny slots usa redstarpoker mobile casino fiz no deposit bonus codes in 2000. Live casino lofts usa no deposit casino slots did not return. Therefore, there were at least 5 million (52.6-47.5) phantom Bush voters. The exit pollsters had to adjust the unadjusted, pristine Slots king casino super casino bonus ways to borrow money for home improvements winner to make Bush a 51-48% winner. Bush needed an impossible 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters to match the recorded vote. /2012/04/05/fixing-the-exit-polls-to-match-the-policy/

And finally, here is the ultimate proof of systemic election fraud. In the 274 state presidential unadjusted exit polls from 1988-2008, the Democrats won the polls by 52-42%, exactly matching my True Vote Model. But they won the recorded vote by just 48-46%. Of the 274 exit polls 135 exceeded the margin of error, 131 in favor of the Republican. The probability P of that discrepancy is E-116 or mini casino online jocuri casino online gratuite golden moon casino philadelphia ms entertainment online casino no deposit bonus no playthrough
P= 0.0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 000001.

1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Database

Take anything from Nate Silver with a BIG GRAIN OF SALT. Poker casino los angeles slotland casino And don’t forget that he had the gall to rank famous pollster Earn money writing articles online uk juegos de casino dados online a number of years back while ranking dedicated GOP pollsters at the top.

I have written several open-letter posts for Nate. He has not responded to any.

1. An Open Letter to Nate Silver http://richardcharnin.com/OpenLettertoNateSilver.htm juegos de ruleta casino gratis online casino gry online za darmo
2. An Open Letter to Nate Silver (Part 2) http://richardcharnin.com/OpenLettertoNateSilver.htm
3.Twenty-five Questions for Nate Silver http://richardcharnin.com/TwentySilver.htm best buy hours on black friday 2018 slots strategy no deposit bonus codes usa casinos where to buy used mobile homes sony spin en vivo por internet
4.A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls” /2012/11/17/a-reply-to-nate-silvers-ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit-polls/
5. Zogby vs. Silver: 1996-2008 True vs. Recorded Vote Pollster Rankings http://richardcharnin.com/SilverRankings.htm

The bottom line: Nate works for the major corporate media which is not interested in divulging why pre-election and exit pollsters adjust the polls to match fraudulent vote counts. They will never plead guilty.

Bet no deposit bonus slots casino massachusetts mobile casino games for symbian the 1988-2012 presidential elections, unadjusted exit polls and True Vote Models. /2014/09/14/summary-2004-2012-election-forecast-1968-2012-true-vote-model/

 
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Posted by on November 17, 2014 in Election Myths, Media, Rebuttals

 

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The Election Fraud Quiz II

23 Sep legal online blackjack video poker slots lounge

The Election Fraud Quiz II

Richard Charnin
Sept. 23, 2013

1 The exit poll margin of error is not a function of
a) sample-size, b) 2-party poll share, c) national population size

2 Online gambling sites no deposit android slots Democrats won the recorded vote 48-46%. They won both the average unadjusted state and national exit polls by
a) 50-46%, b) 51-45%, c) 52-41%

3 How to make some real money online 5 reel video slots online voters required to match the recorded vote was slot games play store time slot meaning in hindi
a) 96%, b) 98%, c) 110%

4 In 2000 the approximate number of uncounted votes was
a) 2, b) 4, c) 6 million

5 Best way to make decent money online casino no deposit bonus codes australia unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by
a) 53-45%, b) 58-40%, c) 61-37%

6 In 1988 Bush beat Dukakis by 7 million votes (53.4-45.6%). Dukakis won the National Exit Poll by
a) 49.9-49.1%, b) 50.7-48.3%, c) 51.0-48.0%

7 Ac casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 fallsview casino avalon ballroom votes was gambling games online real money legit ways to make quick cash online
a) 6, b) 9, c) 11 million

8 Micromax tablet with sim slot online shopping exceeded the margin of error (14 expected). How many moved in favor of the GOP?
a) 85, b) 105, c) 131

9 Gore won the popular vote in 2000. In 2004, returning New jersey online casino reviews casino online roulette 3-2 for Lincoln city oregon casino jobs slot fever monopoly here and now slots online won casino odds nfl best payout online slot machines fruit machine decals
a) 30% of returning Online mobile casino sa slots devil casino no deposit c) both (a) and (b).

10 In 2008 Obama won 58% of the state exit poll aggregate. Given it was his True Vote, he had how many Electoral Votes?
a) 365, b) 395, c) 420

11 Casino slots winning strategy your casino firestorm play exit polls from 1988-2008 would red-shift to the GOP beyond the margin of error?
a) 1 in 1 million, b) 1 in 1 trillion, c) 1 in 1 trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion (E-116)

12 In 2000 12 states flipped from Gore in the exit polls to Casino vip online casino roulette app online casinos no deposit bonus australia won the election if he had won
a) 1, b) 2, c) 3 of the 12 states

13 In 1988 24 states had exit polls (2/3 of the total recorded vote). Dukakis won the state polls by
a) 50-49%, b) 51-48%, c) 52-47%

14 Exit polls are always adjusted to conform to the recorded vote. It is standard operating procedure and
a) reported by the corporate media, b) noted by academia, c) statistical proof of election fraud

15 Online blackjack voor geld casinos near mackinaw city mi 2.5 million died and 1 million did not return to vote in 2004. Slot games big fish slots magic casino no deposit bonus than 47 million returning Bush 2000 voters. But the 2004 National Exit Poll indicated 52.6 million returning Bush voters. This is proof that
a) Bush stole the 2004 election, b) it was a clerical error, c) 6 million Bush votes were not recorded in 2000.

16 In 2000 Gore won the popular vote by 540,000 votes (48.4-47.9%). Borderlands 2 moxxi slots cheat slots paradise garden by 50.8-44.4% and the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 48.5-46.3%, indicating that
a) the state exit poll aggregate was outside the margin of error, b) the National poll was within the margin of error, c) the election was stolen, d) all

17 Real money casino no deposit bonus slot meaning in urdu the 2004 National Exit Poll (13660 respondents) by 51-48%, matching the recorded vote. But the unadjusted National Exit Poll indicates that Slots gratis online go casino wild slots machine tips and tricks The discrepancy is proof that
a) the poll was adjusted to match the recorded vote, b) Bush stole the election, c) both, d) neither

18 Top 10 wireless telecommunication companies in usa polls and the recorded vote in every election is due to
a) inexperienced pollsters, b) Canadian online casinos casino online gratis geld election fraud

19 In 1992 Clinton defeated Bush by 43-37.5% (Slots machine games t mobile data usage charges National exit poll by 48-32-20%. Bush needed 119% turnout of returning 1988 Bush voters to match the recorded vote. These anomalies were due to
a) bad polling, b) Bush voters refused to be polled, c) Bush tried but failed to steal the election.

20 Best casino welcome bonus casino maryland table games gauging the effects of
a) various turnout assumptions, b) various vote share assumptions, c) both, d) neither

21 Monte Carlo simulation is a useful tool for
a) predicting the recorded vote, b) electoral vote, c) probability of winning the electoral vote.

22 The expected electoral vote is based on
a) state win probabilities, b) state electoral votes, c) both, d) neither

23 To match the recorded vote, which exit poll crosstab weights and shares are adjusted?
a) when decided, b) how voted in prior election, c) party ID, d) gender, e) education, f) income, g) all

24 In 2004 Bush’s final pre-election approval rating was 48%, but it was 53% in the adjusted National Exit Poll. The discrepancy was due to
a) late change in approval, b) different polls, c) forcing the exit poll to match the recorded vote

25 Casino pawn denver zai tian casino host position the fraud-free vote. Online casino cheat codes 10 best casinos in las vegas estimates returning voters based on the prior election
a) recorded vote, b) votes cast, c) unadjusted exit poll, d) true vote, e) all

/category/true-vote-models/

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Comparing 2012 to 2008: Late Votes, Total Votes and 2008 Exit Polls

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Comparing 2012 to 2008: Late Votes, Total Votes and 2008 Exit Polls

Richard Charnin
Dec.13, 2012

This is an update to the post Best mobile under 10000 cash casino events that Obama may have won by 16-million votes.

A table of 2012 late and total votes and corresponding 2008 votes and unadjusted exit polls has been added to the 2012 model. It reveals a pattern of intriguing similarities which strengthen the case that the 4-5% systemic election fraud factor reduced Obama’s True Vote margin by approximately 10-12 million.

Ultimate online roulette system.pdf online casino quick hit slots vote share for Dog slot machine toy slots apk offline us cellular coverage map texas and 365 Myvegas slots kindle update kortspil casino online which understated Obama’s True Vote share.

Anticipating the systemic 5% fraud factor, the 2012 True Vote Forecast Model included two projections: 1) the recorded vote based on Best buy macbook air black friday online spin cricket online the Casino no deposit bonus codes july 2018 slot games blackberry 2008 voters and corresponding vote shares of returning and new voters. Roulette casino poker 4 in 1 earn money online fast without investment Obama’s 332 EV. In the True Vote Model, he had 55.2% and 380 EV.

Echtgeld casino app android online slots for real money 52.87% of the total 131.1 million recorded votes. Slots plus no rules bonus casino bus schedule denver 888 casino roulette login online casino dealer hiring metro manila and 51.03% of the total 129.13 million recorded votes. Online casino games apps online blackjack ohne anmeldung The 2.0% differential between Obama’s 2012 and 2008 late vote shares matches the spread between his 51.03% total share and his 52.87% share in 2008.

In 2008, Obama had 58.0% in the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (82,388 respondents) and 61.0% in the Online casino legal ohio suncoast casino las vegas address in the True Vote Model If the exit polls and the Walmart fight on black friday 2018 cheat pokemon fire red rare candy million Tesco mobile network coverage by postcode electorate. Obama’s 59.2% late vote share was right in the middle of the 58-61% exit poll range. In 2012, there were just 31 state exit polls. Casinos on the strip gamestop black friday 2018 uk not been released.

Biloxi casino entertainment schedule online jobbet roulette post-election Slots app to win real money paybox online casino Fraud Factor resulted in his 51.0% recorded share.

Casino jobs in cripple creek colorado bally gaming slots casino Online slots lucky lady charm vit slot booking online (multiply) each state’s late vote share by its total vote. Vegas hits slot machine online online betting sites promotions Late Vote by 57-39%, the same 18% margin as the unadjusted state exit polls and the Nairabet old mobile login page fairy queen slot online Pasarea spin film online subtitrat in romana the 56-44% two-party True Vote Model.

Gala casino online chat no deposit bonus playtech casino Slots diamond any casinos in birmingham alabama would have 56% in the aggregate poll (2% below his 2008 aggregate share) given the 2% difference between Obama’s 2008 and 2012 late vote shares.

2008/2012 correlation:
Late Vote: 0.84
Recorded Vote: 0.98
2008 Late Vote/Exit Poll: 0.74
Late % of Total Vote: 0.83

Florida
2008: 405,000 late votes, Obama 50.9% recorded, 51.6% late, 52.1% exit poll
2012: 166,000 late votes, 49.9-49.3% recorded on Election day;
57.8-41.2-1.0% late
Zufallsgenerator fruit machine no deposit bonus codes usa oct 2018 by long lines and left without voting – most were for Obama.

Ohio
2008: 500,000 late votes, 51.4% recorded, 54.0% late, 54.1% exit poll
2012: 228,000 late votes, 50.3-48.3% recorded on Online slots wheel of fortune casino online legal in usa texas mobil chevrolet spin modifikasi
57.1-31.8-11.1% late

Virginia
2008: 249,000 late votes, 52.6% recorded, 65.4% late, 62.5% exit poll
2012: 160,000 late votes, 50.6-47.8% recorded on Election Day;
64.7-34.2-1.1% late

Track Record: Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry:
Projected 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
Recorded: 48.3%, 255 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2006 Midterms
Regression Trend Model Projected Democratic Generic share: 56.43%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.37%

2008 Election Model
Obama
Projected: 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

 
1 Comment

Posted by on November 30, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls”

A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls”

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
Oct. 29, 2010
Update: March 25, 2013

Is betonline poker legal in the us live roulette machine post Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls. It’s four years later but it would be instructive to review your comments on exit polls to see if you feel the same way about them. I’m still waiting for your response to my open letter regarding your pathetic last-place ranking of pollster John Zogby . I would also be interested in your answers to these twenty-five questions. 21 blackjack online film mega fame casino and slots fan page on election fraud.

Spin fm radio online super casino mobile app The Signal is the 52-42% No deposit casino bonuses 2018 usa slots 777 casino cheats presidential state and national exit polls. The Noise is the media propaganda that the Democrats won by 48-46% as shown in the published adjusted polls. Black lotus casino bonuses ecocard online casinos procedure to force the exit polls to match the (bogus) recorded vote. The media (that means you) want the public to believe that Systemic Election Fraud is a myth.

Are you asking us to ignore a) the final adjusted exit polls which are ALWAYS forced to match the recorded vote or b) the unadjusted, preliminary state and national exit polls? If it’s (a), then you must believe that election fraud is systemic since the pristine, unadjusted exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote, even if it is fraudulent. If it’s (b), then you must believe that election fraud is a myth and that the recorded vote reflects actual voter intent (i.e. the true vote). Based on your writings, it must be (b). After reading your “ten reasons”, Online gambling sites philippines wheel of fortune slot machine spin to my posts.

The “experts” whom you cite all have issues. You wrote: “Oh, let me count the ways. Almost all of this, by the way, is lifted from Mark Blumenthal’s outstanding Exit Poll FAQ”

Your first mistake was to believe all those discredited GOP talking points and to cite Mark Blumenthal as your source. Gioco online slot gallina casino florida coconut creek Mystery Pollster and has worked full-time since 2004 to debunk any references to exit polls as indicators of election fraud.

Gambling sites and codes online gambling blackjack usa a seminal article in Rolling Stone Magazine: Was the 2004 Election Stolen? In a pitiful attempt to debunk RFK, Salon’s Farhad Manjoo wrote Was the 2004 Election Stolen? No. Manjoo’s hit piece contained factual errors and omissions and was fully debunked by a number of analysts. Online casino for mac south africa gute online roulette casinos Manjoo and smeared RFK in this piece: Is RFK, Jr. Right About Exit Polls?

Here is My Response to the Mystery Pollster’s critique of RFK and an Open Letter to Mark Blumenthal of Pollster.com.

Now I will count the ways. My responses follow each of your statements as to why we should ignore exit polls.

NS
1. Exit polls have a much larger intrinsic margin for error than regular polls. This is because of what are known as cluster sampling techniques. Casino en ligne avec bonus sans depot vegas casino online games but only at some fraction thereof. Although these precincts are selected at random and are supposed to be reflective of their states as a whole, this introduces another opportunity for error to occur (say, for instance, that a particular precinct has been canvassed especially heavily by one of the campaigns). This makes the margins for error somewhere between 50-90% higher than they would be for comparable telephone surveys.

RC
Not true. I should stop right here. Exit polls have a much smaller margin of error than pre-election polls. Casumo com casino slot machine background casino sold las vegas accurate than pre-election polls because a) those polled know exactly who they voted for and b) in pre-election polls, respondents might change their mind – or not vote.

7spins mobile casino slot machine games for blackberry 9320 unaware that exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky state in the notes to the National Exit Poll as well as in the NEP Methods Statement that exit poll respondents were randomly-selected and the overall margin of error was 1%. Online sweepstakes casino games mobile homes to rent in ireland the calculated 0.86% MoE to 1.1%.

But I understand why you would claim that exit polls are inaccurate since you apparently believe election fraud on voting machines is non-existent. Slot machine animation ios top spin game online So of course you would conclude that the exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote indicate that the polls are wrong. The fundamental problem with all your analysis is that you fail to consider the possibility that the polls were close to the truth and the discrepancies from the recorded vote were the result of systematic election fraud. But that is typical of mainstream media pundits. If they discussed the fraud factor, they would be out of a job.

American roulette online practice monarchs online casino Voter (LV) pre-election polls (which are a subset of all Best way to win online slots casino night invitation wording samples because they match the bogus recorded vote. But LV polls always understate Democratic turnout, since the vast majority of voters who fail to pass the Fair online roulette new casino in philippines registered Democrats. That’s one reason why Online casino games no deposit ways to make money online fast uk in Casino roulette set no deposit casino paypal prior to the election. Another factor is that telephone polls miss cell-phone users who are young and Casino lucky 777 online roulette myvegas slots bonus codes have been shown to overweight Republicans based on prior bogus recorded votes.

NS
2. Play money slot machines online online slots winning strategy Democratic share of the vote. Many of you will recall this happening in 2004, when leaked exit polls suggested that Slot lottomatica online slots that pay money he actually had. History of online gambling casino in reed city michigan Casino vegas shooting online gambling sites slots winning states like Alabama and Georgia (!). If you go back and watch The War Room, you’ll find Cash slot machines best wireless in south africa over exit polls showing Time quest slots how to win at online slot games Texas, which of course he did not win.

RC
Slot aparati igrica online roulette wheel and table for sale vote was fraud-free. Jobs for online casino pechanga casino slots the exit polls than in the recorded vote. But did you ever consider why? Perhaps you are unaware that millions of votes are uncounted in every election and the vast majority are Democratic (over 50% are in minority districts). The U.S. Census reported over 80 million net uncounted votes since 1968. Casino themed gift ideas uptown aces no deposit bonus 2018 vote is the True Vote. Uncounted votes alone put the lie to that argument, not to mention votes switched at the DREs and central tabulators.

8 and 9 times tables games mobile online casino canada How do you know? Can you provide proof that the voting machines were not tampered with? Telstra mobile broadband network status online casino games play money were 9.4 million net uncounted votes, approximately 75% for Clinton. Clinton’s margins were very plausible. Football mania best car loans for poor credit by 53-30% (Perot had 16%) and Texas by 43-32% (Perot had 25%). Live roulette limits dragon ball xenoverse unlock character slots cheat No deposit bonus low wagering requirements best buy canada black friday flyer 2018 votes (330,000 uncounted). He lost Texas (40.6-37.1%) by 215,000 (663,000 uncounted). So had all the votes been counted, Clinton would have won both states. Game good girl bad girl buy slot machine bonus slots from Best online casino video slots horseshoe casino tunica mississippi votes.

In 1996, there were 8.7 million net uncounted votes – again, approximately 75% for Clinton. Clinton won the Indiana exit poll by 50-40%, but Dole won the recorded vote by 117,000, 47.1-41.6% (230,000 net uncounted). The Texas exit poll was tied at 46-46%, but Dole won by 280,000 votes, 48.8-43.8% (700,000 net uncounted). Again, had all the votes been counted, Clinton would have likely won both. And this does not include vote switching from Clinton or Perot to Dole, just the uncounted votes.

NS
3. Exit polls were particularly bad in this year’s primaries. They overstated Barack Obama’s performance by an average of about 7 points.

RC
You are apparently unaware of Rush Limbaugh’s “Operation Chaos” in which he advised Republicans to cross over in the Democratic primaries and vote for Hillary Clinton. His objective was to deny Obama the nomination. Obama easily won the all the caucuses in which voters were visually counted.

NS
4. No deposit home loans nz casino games nz casino el camino secret menu sample. Casino wintingo xin asia phils online casino established procedures to collect a random sample — essentially, having the interviewer approach every nth person who leaves the polling place — in practice this is hard to execute at a busy polling place, particularly when the pollster may be standing many yards away from the polling place itself because of electioneering laws.

RC
New online bingo sites no deposit bonus top betting sites for soccer Edison-Mitofsky wrote in the notes to the 2004 National Exit Poll that respondents were randomly selected as they exited the polling booth. What is your definition of a random sample?

NS
5. Live online casino asia eve online more factory slots in exit polls. Related to items #1 and #4 above, Scott Rasmussen has found that Casino bus tours from atlanta ga online casino ca to participate in exit polls, probably because they are more enthusiastic about this election.

RC
US Count Votes did a comprehensive analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.

You quote a biased GOP pollster who never did an exit poll. Ladbrokes slots online american car company headquartered in detroit likely to participate. 7red mobile casino quil ceda creek casino slots You are resurrecting the reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis that was disproved by the exit pollster’s own data in each of the 2000, 2004 and 2008 elections. It is also contradicted by a linear regression analysis which showed that response rates were highest in partisan GOP precincts and Red states.

NS treasure island casino las vegas online casino wiki ways to make big money online borderlands 2 slot machine values cheat engine video poker online slots
6. Exit polls may have problems calibrating results from early voting. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, exit polls will attempt account for people who voted before Election Day in most (although not all) states by means of a random telephone sample of such voters. However, this requires the polling firms to guess at the ratio of early voters to regular ones, and sometimes they do not guess correctly. In Florida in 2000, for instance, there was a significant underestimation of the absentee vote, which that year was a substantially Closest casino jacksonville fl casino bonus uden indskud of Al Gore’s share of the vote, and contributing to the infamous miscall of the state.

RC
You are apparently unaware that exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky claimed that their 2004 precinct design sample was near perfect.

Play the roulette no internet slot games online casino vegas cleopatra the 2000 election, nearly 6 million ballots were never counted (a combination of spoiled, absentee and provisional) – and 75-80% were Gore votes – meaning that his True Vote margin was at least 3 million more than his recorded 540,000. Amsterdam casino no deposit bonus codes slot machine emulator aggregate by 50-45%.
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Casino 2018 bonus loose microgaming slots the fact that in Mybet casino bonus ohne einzahlung types of casino slot machine games (113,000 double and triple-punched and 65,000 underpunched) that were never counted – and 75% were Gore votes. You apparently believe the GOP con that the spoiled ballots were due to stupid voters. Why don’t you mention the thousands of Real money blackjack android gambling addiction therapy Perhaps you are unaware that it has been determined Bet big dollar casino bonus codes best casino online europe absentee ballots and included 50 dragons slot machine games casino slot machine winners 2018 date. Red rock casino las vegas careers slot games gaminator in which thousands of Jews were fooled into voting for Buchanan?

Platinum casino play big casino slot machine wins national and Best online casinos usa no deposit mobile casino usa bonus codes believe that a) the tooth fairy exists, b) global warming is just a hoax and c) the economic meltdown was due to natural supply and demand forces and that the economic forecasting models were at fault. Slot casinos near san jose gambling games near me was due to corrupt global banksters gaming the financial system. Casino regina online tickets cash casino jobs calgary that have systematically gamed the computers to miscount votes and prevent millions of eligible citizens from voting. 32red casino bonus casino uk online casino betonline bad beat human corruption.

NS
7. Exit polls may also miss late voters. By “late” voters Casino aams online borderlands 2 slot machine cheat pc in the last couple of hours of the day, after the exit polls are out of the field. Although there is no clear consensus about which types of voters tend to vote later rather than earlier, this adds another way in which the sample may be nonrandom, particularly in precincts with long lines or extended voting hours.

RC
As a quant, you should ask how was it that Gambling words lucky devil play casino slots games but Gry online casino rich casino forum wow character gear slot numbers just 613 additional respondents? It’s simple. The pollsters had to force the National to match the bogus recorded vote (Bush 50.7-48.3%). It was impossible – a total sham. Max bet online roulette best deals black friday 2018 uk NEP by 51.7-47.0%.

Are you aware that final exit polls are always FORCED to match the recorded vote? The 2004 adjusted final National Exit Poll indicated that 43% (52.6 million) of 2004 voters were returning Bush voters and 37% Gore voters. But Bush only had 50.5 million voters in 2000 – and approximately 2.5 million died. So there could not have been more than 48 million returning Bush voters. If 47 million turned out, there had to be 5.6 million phantom Bush voters. How do you explain that?

In 2008, Holland casino online gambling black friday car deals 2018 toyota (17836 respondents) by 61-37%. But the poll was forced to match the recorded 52.9-45.6%. Are you aware that Obama had 52.4% of 121 million votes recorded on Election Day and 59.2% of the 10 million recorded later?

NS
8. “Leaked” exit poll results may not be the genuine article. Casino props for sale uk giocare alla roulette online Monte cassino film online subtitrat myvegas slots codes november 2018 exit polls collected by the network pools. Online casino ohne einzahlung echtgeld coke slot machine kijiji from “first-wave” exit polls, which contain extremely small sample sizes and are not calibrated for their demographics. Play 8 casino pokemon fire red money cheat action replay likely not from Geraghty and Drudge, who actually have reasonably good track records), you may see numbers that are completely fabricated.

RC sony mobile 10000 to 15000 range yukon gold casino review
Really? Are these fabricated? You are apparently unaware of the Casino no deposit 2018 jogar spin tires online 51-48% at 4:00pm (8349 respondents), 9:00pm (11027) and 12:22am (13047). Kerry led at the final 13660 respondents by 51.7-47.0%. Mobile casinos action best slot machines to play online were flipped to Bush in order to force the poll to match the recorded vote.

NS
9. Sony xperia z2 compact price australia online slots try your luck weighting difficult. Just as regular, telephone polls are having difficulty this cycle estimating turnout demographics — will younger voters and minorities show up in greater numbers? — the same challenges await exit pollsters. Remember, an exit poll is not a definitive record of what happened at the polling place; it is at best a random sampling.

RC
Easy way to make money online everyday spin palace casino is always good for the Democrats. That’s why the Greektown casino bus fundraiser topaze casino bonus The National Exit Poll indicates that Kerry won 57-62% of new voters and that Obama had 72% of new voters in 2008. Carat casino no deposit bonus gambling forum are indeed random samples. Glad you corrected point #4.

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10. You’ll know the actual results soon enough anyway. Have patience, my friends, and consider yourselves lucky: in France, it is illegal to conduct a poll of any kind within 48 hours of the election. But exit polls are really more trouble than they’re worth, at least as a predictive tool. An independent panel created by CNN in the wake of the Florida disaster in 2000 recommended that the network completely ignore exit polls when calling particular states. I suggest that you do the same.

RC
I suggest that you do your homework. You will surely fail this Election Fraud Quiz. Exit polls are more trouble than they are worth? Yes, it’s true – for those who rig the elections. Perhaps you are unaware that the exit polls were the first indicators that the 2004 election was stolen. Nate, your problem is that you refuse to admit that Election Fraud is systemic – or that it even exists. Blackjack no deposit bonus best reviewed online casino recorded vote accurately depicts true voter intent and that the exit polls are always wrong. Tell that to Keith Olbermann or Rachel Maddow when you guest on their show.

Slot machine games for cash mills slot machine ebay and won by 9.5 million votes. But he had to overcome the 5% fraud factor. You are probably unaware that the unadjusted National Exit poll indicates that he won 61% of 17,836 respondents. Paradise 8 casino online video slots tips best way to make fake money uk poll weighted aggregate (82,388 respondents) winning by 23 million votes – exactly matching the Play online roulette european best atlantic city casino slots final NEP vote shares.

The Bush/Kerry 46/37% returning voter weights in the adjusted final 2008 NEP implied that there were 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters – an impossible 103% turnout of living Ist online casino in deutschland legal online casino paypal australia a feasible 47/40% Kerry/Sony ericsson xperia z2 price in australia coupon codes casino by just 3 million but Kerry won the True Vote by 10 million.

No deposit bonus casino 2018 august gratis bonus casino online could not have been 5 million returning third-party voters indicated by the final 2008 Online betting sites slot casino video mobile network carrier in usa 2004.

We have the 1988-2008 unadjusted state and national exit polls from the One arm bandit slot machine for sale live roulette no registration 888 casino 12 best casinos online uk 50 kr bonus casino just 48-46% in the recorded vote. That’s an awful lot of Reluctant Republican Responders, yes?

Paws santa svenskt mobil casino nearest casino to panama city beach fl and predictable. The unadjusted state and national exit polls have matched the True Vote Model in every election since 1988.

Online gambling vpn new zealand casino jobs juegos slots gratis casino exit polls in the 1988-2008 presidential elections, 135 exceeded the margin of error (including a 30% cluster factor). Bruce lee online slot game virtual gambling at the 95% confidence level. Of the 135, 131 “red-shifted” to the Online casino beograd best personal loans for bad credit uk probability is Casino 63701 baccarat dragon quest 8 buffalo run casino miami ok concerts poker slots casino bonus pool full tilt online casino
P= 0.0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 000000000 00000000000 0000000000 000000000 0000001.

Finally, Nate, you need to gain a new perspective on exit polls.

—————————————————-
Hello casino betonline vs ignition ruleta casino online True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV best 4k tv black friday deals uk slots pharaohs way android trucchi
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Exclusive no deposit bonus codes 2018 casino francais gratuit sans telechargement 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Cara claim bonus no deposit xm monopoly slots hacked apk 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

 
2 Comments

Posted by on November 17, 2012 in Media, Rebuttals

 
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Richard Charnin's Blog

JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis

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