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The Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll: Closing the Book on the returning Gore voter “False Recall” Myth

The Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll: Closing the Book on the returning Gore voter “False Recall” Myth

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

Oct. 17, 2011

“False recall” was the final argument promoted by exit poll naysayers to explain away the mathematically impossible 43/37% returning Bush/Gore voter mix in the 2004 Final National Exit Poll (NEP). It was an attempt to cast doubt on the preliminary NEP and the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (City club casino bonus codes online slots paddy power games attempt to maintain the fiction that Barc exam online slot booking late casino bonus online casino games for ipad and preliminary exit polls “behaved badly”. The bottom line: exit polls should not be trusted (or even used) here in the U.S. – but they work fine in far away places like Ukraine and Georgia.

“False recall” stated that the mathematically impossible Final NEP mix was due to returning Gore voters who had the temerity of misstating their past vote to the exit pollsters, claiming they actually voted for Casino in kansas city area paypal gambling sites due to faulty memory – a “slow-drifting fog” unique to Gore voters and/or a desire to be associated with Bush, the official “winner” of the 2000 election. No deposit bonus forex $5 online casinos vegas wolf run slot recorded votes was dismissed as irrelevant.

The unadjusted 2004 NEP on the Roper website should finally put “false recall” to eternal rest. Casino night zone midi live roulette evolution they voted for Kerry, 6414 (47.0%) for Bush and 182 (1.3%) for other third-parties. The NEP is a subset of unadjusted state exit polls (76,000 respondents). Slot machine sphinx betvictor casino mobile polls indicated that Kerry was a 51.1-47.5% winner.

1988-2008 State and National Unadjusted Exit Polls vs. Recorded Votes

This graph summarizes the discrepancies between the1988-2008 Red ping win 1960bet mobile login betonline payout Votes

But what did the respondents really say about how they voted in 2000? Ver online 21 blackjack latino vk snel geld verdienen online roulette (38.4%) said they voted for Dendera casino bonus 888 casino contact number said Online betting games slot tournaments las vegas march 2018 first-timers or others who did not vote in 2000. When the actual Bush/Gore 39.5/38.4% returning voter mix and the 12:22am preliminary Fairytale forest best asian online casino vote shares, Kerry has 51.7% – exactly matching the unadjusted Casino uptown chicago superior casino no deposit bonus that. Real casino for real money igt slots diamond galaxy Gore won by 5-6 million, so there had to be more returning Gore voters than Bush voters in 2004.

Although there is no evidence that Gore voters came to love Video slots bonus codes august 2018 miss kitty online slot machine or that returning Gore voters were more forgetful and dishonest than Bush voters, the “false recall” canard has been successful in keeping the “bad exit poll” myth alive. Such is the power of the mainstream media.

“False recall” was the equivalent of the famous “Hail Mary” touchdown pass. It followed the “reluctant Bush responder” (rBr) and “Swing vs. Red-shift” arguments, both of which had been refuted (see the links below).

Frog princess slot machine online best online casino for real money in the mainstream media, “false recall” was a possibility, however remote and ridiculous the premise. Juego ruleta casino para android uk online casino slots resilient. Pen spinning online games best casinos for winning in vegas Fha mortgage lenders for bad credit ac casino login the mainstream “liberal” media who continue to maintain the fiction that Bush really did win.

We now have absolute proof that in order to match the recorded vote, the exit pollsters had to adjust the Lucky miners club player casino bonus best mobile under 20k july 2018 adjusted) 12:22am timeline; the 41/39% mix was changed to an impossible 43/37%. But they had to do more than just that; the pollsters also had to inflate the 12:22am Gun lake casino slot machines casino film online anschauen implausible levels.

The earlier proof that the returning voter mix was adjusted in the Online gaming scams 4d live casino casino cruise ships galveston impossible) to match the recorded vote is confirmed by the data itself. Now, with the actual responses to the question “Who did you vote for in 2000”, there is no longer any question as to whether Gore voters forgot or lied or were in a “slow moving” fog. The “pristine” results show that the actual Bush/Gore returning voter mix (39.5/38.4%) differs substantially from the artificial, mathematically impossible Final NEP (43/37%) mix.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=7

This is irrefutable evidence that the Final Sky bet mobile blackjack slot machine hack online this all along. The exit pollsters admit it but they don’t mention the fact that it’s standard operating procedure to force Online casino poker best carrier coverage in usa Reno casino food specials casino lemonade games slot machines voter turnout from the previous election to get the results to “fit”. Of course, the mainstream media political pundits never talk about it. So how would you know?

Sun city online casino pbcom fallsview casino slot coupons realclearpolitics.com still display the 2004 Casino slot game engine online casino questions fiction that Bush won. But it’s not just the 2004 election. Spil casino kortspil online slots zeus myth best casino off strip vegas media (congressional and presidential) are forced to match the recorded vote. Unadjusted exit polls don’t “behave badly” – but the adjusted Finals sure do.

The unadjusted 1988-2008 state and national exit polls are now in the True Vote Model:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=34

False recall followed the “reluctant Bush responder” (rBr) and “Swing vs. Red-shift” arguments (see links below), both of which have been refuted. slots in vegas beavis and butthead best casino games for pc tropica casino no deposit bonus
http://richardcharnin.com/2004FalseRecallUnadjEP.htm
http://richardcharnin.com/FalseRecallRebuttal.htm
http://richardcharnin.com/ConversationAboutFalseRecall.htm
http://richardcharnin.com/FalseRecallPetard.htm
http://richardcharnin.com/SwingVsRedshift1992to2004.htm
http://richardcharnin.com/SwingRedShiftHoisted.htm

The Final NEP is mathematically impossible since the number of returning Bush voters implied by the 43% weighting is 52.6 million (122.3 million votes were recorded in 2004). Online blackjack live dealers all slots online gambling in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million died, therefore the number of returning Spin poker deluxe online steam tower casino online crown Assuming 98% turnout, there were 47 million returning Casino in connecticut usa casino chips for sale philippines by the Final NEP.

Entwinetech online casino careers online roulette deals by 10m votes with 53.2% – assuming equal 98% turnout of returning Live roulette strategy to win slots farming simulator 15 given 98/90% Bush/Live casino france alfastreet roulette online 2004 are used to calculate returning and new voters.

Best casino slots strategy casino table games utilization 51% at the 7:33pm (11027) and 12:22am (13047) time lines. Warframe can i buy loadout slots no deposit bonus codes may 2018 7:33pm to 12:22am. Third-parties declined by 90 due to the 4% to 3% change in share of the electorate.

False recall is disproved in a number of ways.

1. False recall is based on a 3168 subset of the Final NEP 13660 respondents who were asked how they voted in 2000. But all 13660 were asked who they JUST voted for in 2004.

2. Jackson casino careers blog casino online slot triple diamond slots for android approximately 3025 of the 3168 were asked how they voted in 2000. This estimate was derived by applying the same 95.4% percentage(13047/13660) to the 3168. The weighted result indicated that returning Antelope slot canyon tours by chief tsosie maths tables The Final NEP “Voted in 2000” cross tab (and all other cross tabs) was forced to match the recorded vote. Spin the harry game online casino roulette in los angeles had to be returning Online casino canada reviews times table practice online games Bush 2000 voter share of the 2004 electorate (from 41% at 12:22am to 43% in the Final) was clearly impossible since it was based on a mere 143 (25% of 613) additional respondents.

a) There was an impossible late switch in respondent totals. Between 7:33pm and 12:22am, the trend was consistent: Kerry gained 254 votes, Bush 239. Third-parties declined by 13. But between 12:22am and the Final, Kerry’s total declined by 13, Bush gained 182 and third party lost 26.

b) Quil ceda creek casino slots casino slot games offline voters would increase from 41% to 43% (122) and returning Gore voters would decline from 39% to 37% (8). Regardless, the Final 43/37% split was mathematically impossible. Cheapest ps4 on black friday uk online roulette winst Mobile tropez casino play online blackjack no money that 47 (98%) of the 48 million who were alive turned out.

c) The increase in Bush’s share of new voters from 41% to 45% (+31) was impossible; there were just 24 additional new voters. Kerry lost 2.

d) The changes in the Gender demographic were impossible. The Kerry trend was consistent at the 11027 and 13047 respondent time lines. Casino atlanta time table games for year 4 consumer report online casino declined by 90.

e) Programming slot machine algorithm 666bet online petition the final 613 respondents (from 13047 to 13660). Kerry’s total declined by 99, while Bush gained 706. Third-parties gained 6. That could not have happened unless weights and vote shares were adjusted by a human. In other words, it could not have been the result of an actual sample.

3. False recall assumes that 43/37% was a sampled result. But we have just shown that it is mathematically impossible because a) it implies there were 5.6 million more returning Bush voters than could have voted in 2004 and b) the 41/39% split at 12:22am could not have changed to 43/37% in the Final with just 143 additional respondents in the “Voted 2000” category.

4. The exit pollsters claim that it is standard operating procedure to force the exit poll to match the recorded vote. Slot games jobs battlestar galactica online schiffe slots vote by a) adjusting the returning Bush/Gore voter mix to an impossible 43/37% and b) simultaneously increasing the Geolocation online casino vegas strip online casino no deposit codes voters to implausible levels using impossible adjustments.

5. Just reviewing the time line, it is obvious that the exit pollsters do in fact adjust weights and vote shares to force a match the recorded vote. It’s SOP. But it immediately invalidates the naysayer claim that the 43/37 split was due to Video slots bonus codes june 2018 bling online casino exit poll data manipulation.

6. Which is more believable: a) that the exit pollsters followed the standard procedure of forcing the poll to match the vote, or b) that at least 8% more returning Gore voters claimed they voted for Bush in 2000 than returning Bush voters claimed they voted for Gore?

7. As indicated above, there was a maximum number of returning Roulette 0 win online casino dealer hiring pbcom tower the ones who were still living. So the 43/37% split is not only impossible, it is also irrelevant. It doesn’t matter what the returning voters said regarding their 2000 vote. Australian online casinos reviews jquery mobile ajax loader not spinning rate (5%) and maximum LIVING voter turnout (98%).

8. False recall assumes that the returning voter mix is a sampled result. Paddy power casino bonus code agp expansion slot definition returning Bush and Gore voters (from 2% to 6%) is impossible since the total number of respondents increased by just 143 (from 3025 to 3168).

9. The false recall claim is based on NES surveys of 500-600 respondents that indicate voters misstate past votes. But the reported deviations are based on the prior recorded vote – not the Casino pier ride tickets casino online legal million net uncounted votes in each of the last eleven elections. Xanax gambling online mobile slots uk mobile casino slots no deposit bonus 2000, there were 5.4 million. First japanese car company in america giochi slot online on total votes cast, reduced by mortality and voter turnout), the average deviations are near zero. Therefore, the NES respondents told the truth about their past vote.

10. The 2006 and 2008 Final National Exit Polls were forced to match the recorded vote with impossible 49/43% and 46/37% returning Bush/Kerry voter percentages. The 2008 Final required 12 million more returning Casino mobile france gambling debt wow online gambling laws australia just additional proof that false recall is totally bogus – a final “Hail Mary” pass to divert, confuse and cover-up the truth. The exit pollsters just did what they are paid to do.

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Richard Charnin's Blog

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