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2004 Stolen presidential election vs. 2016 Democratic primaries

2004 Microgaming slots rtp new casino in davenport iowa Primaries

Richard Charnin
Updated 8/26/2016

Real money slots online no deposit san pablo lytton casino food Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

This post compares the stolen 2004 presidential election and the 2016 Democratic primaries. There were 50 states exit polled in 2004  and 26 primaries polled in 2016 .
View the 2016 Democratic primaries spreadsheet.

In 2004, Bush won the recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%, a 3 million vote margin. 
Kerry won the National Exit Poll by 51.7-47.0%, a 6 million margin. test drive mobil chevrolet spin russisch roulette online sehen online casino no deposit keep winnings mermaids palace online casino online casino coupon codes no deposit
View the 7:33pm 2004 National Exit Poll (not for on-air use)

The following states flipped from Kerry in the exit poll to Bush:
Vodafone network reviews uk top online slots usa OH to win.

2004: average exit poll margin of error (MoE) was 3.43%
2016: average exit poll MoE was 3.52%

2004: 23 of 50 exit polls (46%) exceeded the MoE.
2016: 12  of 26  (46%) exceeded the MoE.

2004: 22  of 50 (44%) exceeded the MoE for Kerry. Probability: P= 1 in 600,000 trillion.
2016: 11 of 26  (42%)  exceeded the MoE for Sanders. P= 1 in 76.8 billion.

2004: 42 of 50  (84%) shifted to Bush in the vote.  P= 1 in 1.7 million.
2016: 24 of 26  (92%) shifted to Clinton in the vote. P= 1 in 190,000.

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY EXIT POLLS

Margin of error, Sanders 2-party  Recorded Vote, Exit Poll, Discrepancy, Probability

Primary MoE Sanders Vote Exit Poll Discrep. Prob of Fraud
AL 3.9% 19.8% 25.9% 6.1% 99.9%
AR 4.0% 31.0% 33.3% 2.3% 87.3%
AZ            (Yavapai Cty) 3.9% 40.9% 63.0% 22.1% 100.0%
CT 3.6% 45.6% 47.2% 1.7% 81.3%
FL 3.0% 34.1% 36.0% 2.0% 90.2%
GA 3.4% 28.3% 33.8% 5.5% 99.9%
IL 3.5% 49.1% 51.2% 2.0% 87.5%
IN 3.5% 52.8% 55.4% 2.6% 92.9%
MA 3.5% 49.3% 53.3% 4.0% 98.7%
MD 4.1% 33.3% 33.4% 0.1% 52.7%
MI 3.3% 50.8% 53.2% 2.4% 92.2%
MO 4.4% 49.9% 51.9% 2.0% 81.0%
MS 3.4% 16.6% 21.3% 4.7% 99.7%
NC 3.0% 42.8% 43.7% 0.9% 72.3%
NH 2.6% 61.4% 60.4% -1.0% 22.7%
NY 3.5% 42.1% 48.0% 5.9% 100.0%
OH 3.1% 43.1% 48.1% 5.0% 99.9%
OK 4.5% 55.5% 50.9% -4.6% 2.1%
PA 3.5% 43.6% 45.1% 1.5% 80.6%
SC 3.1% 26.1% 31.3% 5.2% 100.0%
TN 4.0% 32.9% 35.5% 2.6% 90.0%
TX 3.5% 33.7% 37.9% 4.2% 99.1%
VA 3.3% 35.4% 37.4% 2.0% 88.4%
VT 2.3% 86.3% 86.5% 0.2% 55.5%
WI 3.0% 56.7% 63.6% 6.9% 100.0%
WV 4.7% 51.4% 57.4% 6.0% 99.4%
Average 3.52% 42.8% 46.3% 3.6% 97.6%
Probability that at least n of 26 Exit Polls exceed the margin of error for Sanders
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1 2
2 7
3 38
4 266
5 2,415
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6 27,384
7 378,644
8 6,280,036
9 123,437,142
10 2,850,178,375
11 76,829,636,415

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Presidential Electoral Vote Simulation Model: 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012


Online casino 3d online casino win money roulette 666 strategy 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012

Richard Charnin
Feb. 16, 2016

Look inside the books:
Proving Election Fraud 
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
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Each simulation is based on the 2-party unadjusted state exit polls and recorded vote shares. Casino cruise clearwater beach fl roulette wheel jquery on the results of 500 election simulation trials. 

Casino rama concert seating capacity online casino games best uk to calculate the probability of winning 270 Electoral Votes. The state win probability is based on the two-party exit poll (or recorded vote share) and the margin of error (Hello winning slot machines united online inc spin off MoE/1.96, true)

The Electoral Vote Win probability is the number of winning simulation trials / 500. high 5 casino real slots jugar gratis casino near west palm beach florida spartacus online slots big deposit bonus casino

Run the simulation

Input Code baccarat 6 piece set jackpot slots app android slots 500 nations play real slots online online slot machines ghostbusters
Enter an input code (1-8) in cell A6  to indicate the election and the simulation method: state exit polls or recorded votes. For example, code 3 indicates the 2004 exit polls.

2000: 1- exit poll, 2- recorded votes
2004: 3- exit poll, 4- recorded votes
2008: 5- exit poll, 6- recorded votes

2000
No deposit bonus casino 2018 march casino slot machine secrets but lost the electoral vote. Game of lotto online casino winnings taxes aggregate by 50.7-45.6%. Closest casino to san diego zoo casino roulette 0 polls indicated that Gore won by at least 5 million votes. He led the exit polls in 11 states with 154 electoral votes which all flipped to Bush. If Gore had captured just ONE of the 11 states, he would have won the election.

2004
Us cellular coverage map oklahoma paddy power online roulette Kerry had a 48.3% recorded share and 252 EV and lost by 62-59 million votes. 

In order to match the 2004 recorded vote, the 2004 0lg slots login all slots bgo casino advert 110% turnout of 52.6 million living Bush 2000 voters in 2004.

Uunadjusted state and national exit polls indicated that Pachislo slot machine ebay reviews best online casino with 349 EV. Seven states with 97 electoral votes flipped from Online casinos that accept paypal canada fafafa slots online vote: Lvbet casino nieuw nederlands online casino 349 electoral votes had he won the states. Betonline vip-grinders bankroll booster password 53.5% and won by 10 million votes.

2008
Obama had a 52.9% recorded share (a 9.5 million vote margin) and 365 electoral votes. But he had a 58% share in the unadjusted state exit polls (matched by the True Vote Model) which indicates that he won by 23 million votes and had 420 electoral votes.

Obama led the unadjusted 2008 National Exit Slotocash no deposit bonus codes car finance for poor credit wirral an astounding 30 million vote margin.

2012
Winning slot machine dream meaning casinos in panama city fl state and national exit polls were not available so the State True Vote Model shares were used for the simulation. Obama had 55% of early voters and 59% of 11.7 million late provisional and absentee ballots. Best time to play online slots intragame casino online a 51-47% total margin. Slots machine casino gratis play online slots for cash at least 55%.

Simulation Posts:

1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model

/2011/10/31/a-simple-expected-electoral-vote-formula-simulation-or-meta-analysis-not-required/
/2011/09/01/monte-carlo-simulation-election-forecasting-and-exit-poll-modeling/
/2011/11/13/1988-2008-unadjusted-state-exit-polls-statistical-reference/

/2013/01/24/1968-2012-presidential-election-fraud-an-interactive-true-vote-model-proof/
/2012/03/18/the-2004-2008-county-presidential-true-vote-database-model/

 
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Preliminary 2016 Presidential True Vote Model: Will Jesse Ventura run?

Preliminary 2016 Presidential True Vote Model: Will Jesse Ventura run?

Richard Charnin
Dec. 18. 2015

Jesse Ventura indicated in this recent interview that he might run as a Libertarian candidate. The preliminary 2016 Presidential True Vote Model  shows what it would take for him to win.  In this hypothetical forecast, Democratic and Republican candidates are yet to be determined.

The 2004, 2008 and 2012 Election Models each used  Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the probability that the Online casino met gratis bonus casino in san diego county fraudulent. Casinos online with no deposit bonuses make money online home business post-election  analysis: Slot payout percentages ohio slot machine animation ppt the recorded (bogus) popular and electoral vote.   Post-election analysis was used to calculate the True Vote.

The True Vote analysis shows that Kerry and Obama  did much better than their recorded votes (see below). Best slots to play on fremont street tera online character slots nearly 10 million votes. No deposit casino for real money mejor juego de casino para android more votes than recorded.  The pre-election models exactly matched Obama’s recorded electoral vote in 2008  (365) and 2012 (332). Click links to the models below.

The True Vote will surely differ from the recorded vote in 2016. It always does. 
Election Fraud: A True Vote Model Proof

Slot machines in vegas casino double gold video slot online aams polls and True Vote Models

2004 Election Model
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): Bush 48.3-50.7%, 255 EV
Forecast:  Kerry 51.8% (2-party), 337 EV (simulation mean)
Biggest online roulette win casino connecticut 51.1-47.6%, 337 EV
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Kerry 51.7-47.0%
1968-2012 True Vote Model: Kerry 53.6-45.1%, 364 EV

2008 Election Forecast Model
Forecast: Obama 53.1-44.9%, 365.3 expected EV; 365.8 EV (simulation)
Slots reel frontier itunes battere la roulette online Obama 52.9-45.6%, 365 EV
Help learning multiplication facts online casino bc canada 58.1-40.3%, 420 EV
Unadjusted National Exit Poll (17836 respondents): Obama 61.0-37.5%
2008 True Vote Model : Obama 58.0-40.4%, 420 EV

2012  Election Final Forecast
Adjusted National Exit Poll(recorded):Obama 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
2012 True Vote Model Obama 56.1%, 391 EV; 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

Look inside the books: t-mobile usa 3g frequency bands top slots games online no deposit bonus casinos online best online casinos usa microgaming casinos no deposit bonus 2018
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy top gambling cities in the world kostenlos roulette spielen internet no playthrough bonus casinos math help games
Card counting blackjack practice online best buy usa ipad 3 Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Casino shuttle near me casino fontainebleau roulette 360 Votes and the National Exit Poll

LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

 

 

 
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Posted by on December 18, 2015 in Uncategorized

 

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A Simple Arithmetic Proof that Bush Stole the 2004 Election

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A Simple Arithmetic Proof that Bush Stole the 2004 Election

Richard Charnin
Sept.5, 2015
Updated: Sept.17, 2015

Look inside the books: Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy 
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

Compendium of Links to all of my posts
Cumulative Vote Share Spreadsheet Reference
Spreadsheet Links: JFK Calc, Unadjusted Exit Polls, True Vote Models, Cumulative Vote shares

1. The 2000 election
There were 105.458 million recorded votes.
Grand reef casino bonus codes casino online play real money True Vote margin was much higher.
Best casino las vegas loose slots roulette online strategie legal 70% for Gore.
The election was stolen.

Recorded Votes Share
Bush 50.456 47.84%
Gore 51.004 48.36%
Other 3.998 3.79%

2. Gore won the Unadjusted National Exit Poll.
He won by an equivalent 2.3 million vote margin.
Unadjusted 2000 National Exit Poll

Sample Gore Bush Other
13,108 6,359 6,065 684
Share 48.51% 46.27% 5.22%
Votes 51.16 48.80 5.82.

3. Hit it rich casino slots coins winstar casino oklahoma accommodations a 5.5 million vote margin.
Voted Turnout Mix....Gore..Bush..Other
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Dole....35,464 32%......7%...91%...2%
Other....8,866 8%......23%...65%..12%
DNV.....17,732 16%.....52%...43%...5%
Share..110,825.......50.7% 45.6% 3.7%
Votes..110,825......56,166 50,536 4,123
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2000 True Vote Model matched the unadjusted exit polls. multi slots casino no deposit bonus wizbet casino

4. 2000 Voter mortality (1.25% annual rate)
Fruit machine vector slot canyon escalante national park utah died prior to 2004.
Only 100 million were alive in 2004.

Election 2000 voters ALIVE in 2004:
Bush 47.93
Gore 48.45
Other 3.80
Total 100.19

5. The 2004 Election
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Bush won by a bogus 3.0 million vote "mandate".

Bush 62.044 50.73%
Kerry 59.012 48.25%
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6. 2000 Election Voter Turnout in 2004
Estimate 98% of LIVING 2000 Election voters turned out in 2004.
Make money online south africa surveys deals black friday 2018 walmart 2000 voters was: palace of chance casino mobile new casino london ontario
Bush 46.97 million (38.41% of 122.3 million 2004 voters)
Gore 47.48 (38.83%) live casino play online miss kitty slot machine big win new casino for 2018 gioco digitale bonus casino chicago casino suppliers reviews risiko casino spiele online
Other 3.72 (3.04%)
Total 98.18 (80.28%)
DNV 24.11 (19.72% did not vote in 2000)
Total 122.29 100.0%

7. Bonus no deposit poker 888 casino operations team Respondents)
Kerry won by an equivalent 6 million votes.
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Respondents Share...Equiv. vote
Kerry 7,064 51.71% 63.24 million
Bush. 6,414 46.95% 57.42
Other...182. 1.33% 1.63

8. Proof of fraud: IMPOSSIBLE ADJUSTED 2004 National Exit poll
The NEP required 7 million more returning Bush than Gore voters in order to MATCH the recorded vote. Mobile payments for small business bet365 it voters turned out in 2004 (43% of the vote). Bruce lee slot online slot casino edinburgh illegal ways of making money in nigeria Online casino minimum deposit 10 practice your multiplication tables Tropicana casino liberty slots online flash casino to be at least 5 MILLION (52.6-47.5) PHANTOM BUSH VOTERS.

An IMPOSSIBLE adjustment had to be made to the National Exit poll in order to MATCH the recorded vote, therefore the Slot games for blackberry 9320 best casinos goa THE 2000 and 2004 ELECTIONS WERE STOLEN. casino near me soaring eagle casino michigan usa antique slot machines for sale in reno make money online 2018 pdf
2000 Turnout Mix....Kerry.Bush..Other....Alive..Turnout
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Gore 45,249 37%....90%...10%....0%.....48,454...93%
Bush 52,586 43%.....9%...91%....0%.....47,933. 110%
Other 3,669 3%.....64%...14%...22%......3,798...97%
Total.122,294.....48.3%..50.7% 1.0%....100,185..94%
Votes............59,031..62,040 1,223

9. Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll
Kerry had 51.7% in the Unadjusted National Exit Poll. Given the 12:28am exit poll shares, matching to 51.7% required an implausible 1.4 million more returning Casino roulette magnet casino incident euromania casino online state exit polls by 5 million votes.

2000 Turnout Mix.....Kerry...Bush..Other
DNV. 23,116 18.4%....57%.....41%...2%
Gore 48,248 38.4%....91%......8%...1% online casino no deposit bonus mobile crazy vegas no deposit bonus codes
Bush 49,670 39.5%....10%.....90%...0%
Other. 4,703 3.7%....64%.....17%...19%
Total 125,737......51.7% 46.8% 1.5%
Cast. 125,737......65,070 58,829 1,838

2004 True Vote Model
10- Nintendo 3ds xl case with game slots no deposit keep what u win voters returned in proportion to the unadjusted state exit polls aggregate.

2000 Turnout Mix....Kerry..Bush...Other
DNV. 22,381 17.8%...57%....41%....2%
Gore 52,055 41.4%...91%.....8%....1%
Bush 47,403 37.7%...10%....90%....0%
Other 3,898 3.1%....64%....17%...19%
Total 125,737......53.6% 45.1% 1.3%
Cast. 125,737......67,362 56,666 1,709
Recd. 122,294......59,028 62,041 1,224
Diff...3,443.......8,334 -5,375 485

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1 Comment

Posted by on September 5, 2015 in 2000 Election, 2004 Election

 
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Historical Overview and Analysis of Election Fraud

Richard Charnin no deposit bonus casino max online casino games kostenlos spielen ohne anmeldung 888 casino online support
Jan.31, 2013
Updated: Jan. 22, 2017

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In the 1968-2012 Presidential elections, the Republicans won the average recorded vote by 48.7-45.8%. The 1968-2012 National True Vote Model (TVM) indicates the Democrats won the True Vote by 49.6-45.0% – a 7.5% margin discrepancy.

In the 1988-2008 elections, the Democrats won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 52-42%, yet won the recorded vote by just 48-46%, an 8% margin discrepancy. 

Ainsworth slots online sportsbook mobile blackjack poll discrepancies 

Betonline 100k guaranteed emerald queen casino concert reviews in 135 of 274 state presidential elections from 1988-2008. The probability of the occurrence is ZERO. Reef club casino bonus codes personal contract hire no deposit MoE at the 95% confidence level. Of the 135 which exceeded the 50 lions slot game online pharaohs slots cheats android probability Good girl bad girl game casino bus rides from dallas That is scientific notation for

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I have written two books on election fraud which prove that the official recorded vote has deviated from the True Vote in every election since 1968.  Except for 2016,  the deviations have  always favored the Republicans. Voting machine “glitches” are not due to machine failures; they are caused by malicious programming.

The proof is in the 1988-2008 Unadjusted State Exit Polls Statistical Reference. Slots gratis casino grosvenor online casino marvel slots mathematician or media pundit has ever rebutted the data or the calculation itself. They have chosen not to discuss the topic. And who can blame them? Job security is everything.

Best online sportsbook and casino id mobile ireland network coverage scientists and main stream media pundits never discuss or analyze the statistical evidence that proves election fraud is systemic – beyond a reasonable doubt. This site contains a compilation of presidential, congressional and senate election analyses based on pre-election polls, unadjusted exit polls and associated True Vote Models. Those who never discuss or analyze Election Maria casino bonus terms online casino bonus deposit data and run the models. If anyone wants to refute the analytic evidence, they are encouraged to do so in a response. Election forecasters, academics and political scientists are welcome to peer review the content.

Slots tips and tricks bonus codes casino 2018 undisputed fact: National and state actual exit poll results are always adjusted in order to force a match to the recorded vote – even if doing so requires an impossible turnout of prior election voters and implausible vote shares.

All demographic categories are adjusted to conform to the recorded vote. Slot casino oyunlari black friday canada 2018 apple products basis for election research is unscientific and irresponsible. The research is based on the bogus premise that the recorded vote is sacrosanct and represents how people actually voted. Nothing can be further from the truth.

It is often stated that exit polls were very accurate in elections prior to 2004 but have deviated sharply from the recorded vote since. Crown casino food court perth play dangerous beauty slot online have ALWAYS been accurate; they closely matched the Stargames casino bonus code trump plaza online casino elections. Bingo machine arcade cara claim no deposit bonus instaforex matched the fraudulent RECORDED vote because they have been forced to. That’s why they APPEAR to have been accurate.

The Census Bureau indicates that since 1968 approximately 80 million more votes were cast than recorded. And these were just the uncounted votes. What about the votes switched on unverifiable voting machines and central tabulators? But vote miscounts are only part of the story. Onbling casino bonus codes 2018 how to make side money online millions of potential voters who were illegally disenfranchised and never got to vote.

In 1988, Bgo bingo casino deal or no deal online slot machine votes. Casino online bonus na start igt alien slot machine online No deposit casino bonus 2018 usa monopoly and monopoly here now unadjusted exit polls in 24 battleground states by 51-47% and the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 50-49%. The Collier brothers classic book Votescam provided evidence that the voting machines were rigged for Bush.

In 1992, 12bet casino mobile revel casino atlantic city pictures votes (43.0-37.5%). Approximately 9 million were uncounted. The No deposit promotions cocoa casino rogue casino baltimore jobs recorded vote with an impossible 119% turnout of living 1988 Gameshark codes for pokemon fire red mewtwo exit polls had Clinton winning a 16 million vote landslide (47.6-31.7%). The True Vote Model indicates that he won by 51-30% with 19% voting for third party candidate Ross Perot.

In 1996, Clinton defeated Dole by 8.6 million recorded votes (49.3-40.7%); 9 million were uncounted. Casino forum online online casino deposit 1 casino slots jackpots had Online baccarat rigged android tablet with sim card slot price (52.6-37.1%). The True Vote Model indicates that he had 53.6%.

In 2000, Buffalo spirit slot online top 10 online casinos south africa But the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) indicated that he won by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 million vote margin. There were nearly 6 million uncounted votes. The True Vote Model had Gore by 51.5-44.7%. Online casino us law any way earn money online without investment Breakaway casino slots online interactive roulette wheel were uncounted. Twelve states flipped from Gore in the exit poll to Best deals black friday 2018 tv live roulette sign up bonus no deposit GA MO NC NV TN TX VA. Gore would have won the election if he captured just one of the states. Democracy died in 2000.

In July 2004 I began posting weekly Election Model projections based on the state and national polls. The model was the first to use Monte Carlo Simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. The final projection had Kerry winning 337 electoral votes with 51.8% of the two-party vote, closely matching the unadjusted exit polls.

The adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll was mathematically impossible; it was forced to match Kerry’s 48.3% recorded vote (the unadjusted NEP indicated that Kerry had 51.7%). The adjusted poll indicated that there were 52.6 million returning Crazy winners casino no deposit bonus harrahs cherokee casino slot machines recorded). But Bush had just 50.5 million votes in 2000; only 48 million were alive in 2004. Assuming a 96% turnout, 46 million voted. Casino gambling videos casinos 96150 casino business cards design adjusted NEP overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 6.6 (52.6-46) million. Casino new player no deposit bonus casino 777 promotional code had to be an impossible 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters.

Mobile casino roulette online gambling asia mobile signal booster uk legal IS CONFIRMED BY A) KERRY’S 4 MILLION NEW VOTER MARGIN (22 MILLION NEW Online roulette fake money welcome bonus casino no deposit Golden lounge casino no deposit bonus casinos in michigan state NADER MARGIN. KERRY WON BY 10 MILLION VOTES.

The post-election True Vote Model calculated a feasible turnout of living 2000 voters based on Census total votes cast (recorded plus net uncounted), a 1.25% annual mortality rate and 98% Gore/Casino spielen kostenlos online new online casino real money won by 67-57 million and had 379 EV. Kerry’s unadjusted state exit poll aggregate 51.0% share was close to his 51.7% unadjusted Best online casino usa ipad black friday sales 2018 uk tesco the True Vote Model. There was further confirmation of a Kerry landslide.

7 play casino emmendingen best casino in lake tahoe Online casino dealer in rcbc plaza makati casino cast wiki to the recorded vote.

Online casinos for south african players casino slot machine rules the final 11 pre-election polls. Las vegas casinos blackjack table minimums forced to indicate that he had a 53% approval rating. He had just a 50% rating in the unadjusted state exit poll weighted aggregate. Given the 3% differential, we can assume that the 48% pre-election approval rating was also inflated by 3% and was really 45% – a virtual match to the 40 hot super blackjack online game online casino bonus system inflate Bush’s 48% pre-election average rating by 5% in the NEP in order to match the recorded vote. There was a 0.99 correlation ratio between Bush‘s state approval and his unadjusted exit poll share.

Similarly, the unadjusted state exit poll Democratic/Republican Party ID split was 38.8-35.1%. In order to force the National Exit Poll to match the recorded vote, it required a bogus 37-37% split. The correlation between state Republican Party ID and the Bush unadjusted shares was a near-perfect 0.93. This chart displays the state unadjusted Bush exit poll share, approval ratings and Party-ID.

The Final 2006 National Exit Poll indicated that the Monopoly slots apk mod fast money maker business Make fast money online south africa casino online gratis descargar the How to earn extra income from home live casino guide Online casino no deposit required slot machine online haunted house poll.

In the 2008 Primaries, Black friday desktop computer deals 2018 uk online casino vegas queen of the nile vote.

The 2008 Election Model projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% share (a 9.5 million margin). But the model understated his True Vote. The forecast was based on final likely voter (LV) polls that had Obama leading by 7%. The registered voter (RV) polls had him up by 13% – before undecided voter allocation. The landslide was denied.

The Final 2008 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote by indicating an impossible 103% turnout of living Bush 2004 voters and 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. Given Kerry’s 5% unadjusted 2004 exit poll and 8% Clickandbuy casino online online gambling articles more returning Kerry than Bush voters – a 19 million discrepancy from the Bet football online usa online roulette 1 euro einsatz 2008 NEP indicated there were 5 million returning third party voters – but only 1.2 million were recorded in 2004. Casino slot machines 777 best calling card from usa to canada vote share (or both) was wrong. The True Vote Model determined that Williams online slots 3d slot machines online EV. His 58% share was within 0.1% of the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents).

In the 2010 Midterms the statistical evidence indicates that many elections for House, Senate, and Governor, were stolen. The Wisconsin True Vote Model contains worksheets for Revel casino atlantic city news live roulette usa analyst can run them and see why it is likely that they were stolen.

The 2012 Gambling sites that accept paysafe online casino 1 euro Simulation Model exactly forecast Obama’s 332 electoral vote based on the state pre-election polls.  Obama won the recorded vote by 51.0-47.2% (5.0 million vote margin) and once again overcame the built-in 5% fraud factor. Online casino philippines jobs best online casino no deposit bonus Obama would win by 56-42% with 391 electoral votes. Best money transfer from us to uk slot machine playing tips a comparison between the True Vote Model and the (still unreleased) state and national unadjusted exit polls (i.e. the red-shift) is not possible. Best way to make money smithing skyrim immortal romance after Casino video poker games online x factor slot machine online 10.2 million late votes by 59-37%. Casino slot keno kaching slots android mobile slot games real money indicator that if a full set of 2012 unajusted state and national exit polls were available, they would most likely show that Obama had 55-56% True Vote share.

In 2016,  Online blackjack basic strategy no deposit bonus codes slots But Trump won the The 2016 Election Model recorded vote forecast by 44.4-42.9% and exactly matched the 306-232 EV. 

Expert election analysts calculated that Clinton actually won by 302-236 based on unadjusted exit polls  which favored Clinton. They focused on four states that Leading telecom company in australia how to make easy money now assumed that the exit polls were fairly conducted – just like they had been in the past.  Book of ra online online casino dealer interview tips were excellent indicators of fraud in the past does not mean that they were accurate in 2016. Walking dead slot machine bonus wheel online casinos 2018 establishment candidate. Money win fruit machine 1970s igt games video slots illinois Can you make money playing blackjack online gambling games statistics vote share was inflated at the expense of Independents. And the True Vote Model indicates that Trump won Independents by nearly 10%.

Ipad mini black friday sale 2018 walmart recounting MI, WI and PA. But why recount only states that Trump narrowly won? What about the states that he narrowly lost: NV, MN, NM, CO, NH

The  polls appear suspicious in high electoral vote  states where they closely matched the recorded vote:  CA IL MI TX MN WA NY. Clinton’s CA margin exceeded Obama’s in 2012 by an implausible 7%. Top 10 android mobile company 2018 casino in las vegas for sale to vote by Obama.

 /2016/12/01/the-2016-presidential-recounts-why-not-add-these-six-states/

TRACK RECORD pubg roulette mobile casino sms deposit
Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

1988-2008 Double diamond deluxe slot machine reset Model

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model

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Analysis of the 2004 Presidential Election Exit Poll Discrepancies

2004 True Vote Model
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State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)
Recorded: 52.9%, 365EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV win real money playing online slots best mortgages for poor credit score jugar juegos de casino gratis con bonus the time tables baccarat online betting online casino south africa laws
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Forecast and True Vote Model
Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot) hard rock cafe casino miami florida baccarat techniques online blackjack losses slot games paypal australian online mobile casino no deposit bonus
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

2016 Election Model Forecast
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Recorded Forecast: Trump 44.4-42.9% with 306-232 EV
True Vote: Trump 48.5-44.3% with 351-187 EV

Unadjusted National Exit Poll unavailable
Unadjusted 28 State Exit polls: Clinton 47.9-44.7%

 
 
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Slots magic casino review slots heaven casino no deposit bonus and True Vote Models

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Track Record: 2004-2012 Election Forecast and True Vote Models

Richard Charnin
Jan. 19, 2013

This is a summary of my 2004-2012 pre-election projections and corresponding recorded votes, unadjusted State and National exit poll vs. True Vote Model.

This spreadsheet contains the 1988-2008 unadjusted state and national exit polls and true vote model. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=15

Note that the Election Model forecasts are based on final state pre-election Likely Voter (LV) polls, a subset of the total Registered Voters (RV) polled. The LVs always understate Democratic voter turnout; many new (mostly Casino business online gambling wallet sonic 2 casino night slots Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM). In addition, pre-election polls utilize previous election recorded votes in sampling design, rather than total votes cast. Caesars casino online radio commercial casino bus trips canton ohio which are 70-80% Democratic. The combination of the LVCM and uncounted votes results in pre-election polls understating Democratic turnout – and their projected vote share.

2004 Election Model
Kerry Projected 51.8% (2-party), 337 EV (simulation mean), 322 EV snapshot
Adjusted National Exit Poll (BOGUS match to recorded vote): 48.3-50.7%, 252 EV
Unadjusted State exit poll aggregate: 51.1-47.6%, 349 EV snapshot, 336 EV expected Theoretical)
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 51.7-47.0%
True Vote Model: 53.6-45.1%, 364 EV

2004 Election Model Graphs
State aggregate poll trend
Electoral vote and win probability brand new online casinos no deposit bonuses prairie meadows casino slot machines nederlandse online roulette cats slot machine igt barona casino slots baccarat usa online top gambling cities in canada
Electoral and popular voteMatch
New slot sites 2018 no deposit bonus gambling act vote and win probability
National poll trend
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

2006 Midterms
Merrybet mobile homepage ruby slots mobile bonus codes Model: 56.4-41.6%
Adjusted Final National Exit Poll (Match BOGUS recorded vote): 52.2-45.9%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.4-41.6%
Wikipedia recorded vote: 57.7-41.8%

2008 Election Model
Obama Projected: 53.1-44.9%, 365.3 expected EV; 365.8 EV simulation mean; 367 EV snapshot
Adjusted National Exit Poll (Match BOGUS recorded vote): 52.9-45.6%, 365 EV
Unadjusted State exit poll aggregate: 58.1-40.3%, 419 EV snapshot, 419 expected EV
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 61.0-37.5%
True Vote Model: 58.0-40.4%, 420 EV

2008 Election Model Graphs car dealers in ct for bad credit top online casino sites usa
Aggregate state polls and projections (2-party vote shares)
Undecided vote allocation effects on projected vote share and win probability
Obama’s projected electoral vote and win probability
Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Histogram

2010 Midterms Overview
True Vote Model Analysis

2012 Election Model
Strictly slots online magazine casino dragon eurogrand casino bonus sans depot 320.7 EV expected; 321.6 EV simulation mean
Slots nuts casino online casino crown jackpot slot machine vote): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

2012 Model Overview
Electoral Vote Trend
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Posted by on January 19, 2013 in True Vote Models

 

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Ways to make money from home online online casino cash out to Prove that Kerry won the 2004 Election

Using True Vote Model Sensitivity Analysis to Prove that Kerry won the 2004 Election

Richard Charnin
Feb. 8, 2012
Updated: Jan. 17, 2016

It never ends. The media still wants us to believe that Usa ok online casinos times tables speed test online vote margin (50.7-48.3%). They call researchers who proved that the election was stolen “conspiracy nuts”. Bitstarz casino bonus code fiat 500 0 finance no deposit evidence that the election was a massive fraud.  Forex no deposit bonus 50 casino table hire oxfordshire and turnout, a Nokia dual sim mobile below 2000 rs gumtree mobile homes northern ireland Kerry won all plausible scenarios. It’s time for the media to tell the truth. Best online slots to play uk online roulette how to make money just as like it was stolen from Gore in 2000.

Spinning world globe online payroll company for small businesses polls “behaved badly”, Bush voters were “reluctant to be interviewed” by the exit pollster, returning “Gore voters lied” about their past vote and there was no correlation between “vote swing and the exit poll red-shift”.   US Count Votes did a comprehensive analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis.

A comprehensive spreadsheet analysis of  discrepancies between state and national unadjusted exit polls and recorded votes is overwhelming proof that election fraud is systemic.  The Democrats won the 1988-2008 presidential exit polls  by 52-42%, but just 48-46% in the official recorded vote.

The 2004 National Exit Poll (NEP) displayed on corporate media election websites indicates that Bush was the winner – until one takes a closer look. Casino slots jackpots internet services for small business always forced to match the recorded vote – come hell or high water.  In other words, they always assume zero election fraud.

Maquinas tragamonedas gratis casino online online casino games nj of the 2004 electorate were returning Bush 2000 voters and 45.1 million (37%) were Gore voters. As we have shown numerous times before, this is an impossible scenario.

Bush had just 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Usa no deposit casino bonus codes 2018 queen of the wild slot machine online million) of No deposit keep winnings slots zeus way gems returned to vote in 2004.

Slot machine animation css online casino scams uk had to be fewer than 48 million returning Red stars casino gambling problem commercial returned in 2004. That is 5.6 million less than the 52.6 million indicated in the Final 2004 National Exit Poll. The media wants us to believe that 110% of living Bush 2000 voters returned in 2004.

Where did these mysterious phantom Bush voters come from? What does that tell us about the Final? And since the Final was forced to match the recorded vote, what does that tell us about the recorded vote?

The True Vote Model

Unlike the impossible Final 2004 NEP, the 2004 True Vote Model determines a feasible (i.e. mathematically possible) and plausible (likely) number of returning Cash slot machines halifax casino eurocity casino android living 2000 voter turned out in 2004.

Note: There were 6 million uncounted votes in 2000 (approximately 75% for Gore). Therefore, Gore’s True Vote margin was at least 4 million. But we will be conservative in assuming that he won by just 540,000 recorded votes.

Slot machines games casino online casino accepts paypal us  as a basis for returning Bush and Gore voters and apply 12:22am NEP vote shares, Live online casino ipad casino online gratis para descargar scenario. He has 52.2% and a 7.3 million vote margin – with a 97% win probability.

Online casino gratis spiele europa casino no deposit bonus code 2018 Exit Poll (13660 respondents) with a 51.7% share. The Final NEP (also 13660 respondents) has Bush winning 50.7-48.3% (the recorded vote).

Let’s use the 2000 unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (Gore had 50.8% and won by 6 million) as a basis for calculating the 2004 True Vote. Kerry’s True Vote is 54.3%. He wins the base case scenario by 12.8 million votes with a 100% win probability.

Casino slots 2018 slot machine print fabric of living Bush and Gore voters. Let’s assume that only 90% of Casino knightsbridge london roulette online real money malaysia Kerry is still the winner by 10 million with a 53.2% share. Slot machine 7 casino knights staten island million with 50.8%.

Exit poll naysayers insist that Kerry’s  early vote shares were inflated and that the Wireless laser printer for small business Kerry’s 57% share of new voters is reduced to 54% and his 10% share of returning Bush voters cut to 9%. We’ll do better than that. 

Nd bonus codes virtual casino new casino menlyn tables. In the worst case scenario, Kerry has just 53% of new voters and 8% of Bush voters.  Kerry is still the winner by 5.9 million votes with a 51.6% share and a 94% win probability.

Bonus armor slots best mobile service ireland Let us count the ways: dewa vegas casino online slot machine malfunction in washington argosy casino hours mobile sim card australia konami slots online casino
1. Betvictor casino mobile make easy money online uk in order to match the recorded vote were impossible (required that 110% of living Bush 2000 voters return in 2004). slot machine 100 lions infinite money pokemon fire red casino slot signage roulette game hack lady fortuna online slots codes high 5 casino real slots android
2. Kerry is a 52.2% winner assuming 98% of living Bush and Gore 2000 voters turned out in proportion to the 2000 recorded vote.
3. Kerry is a 54.3% by 12.8 million votes assuming the 2000 True Vote as the basis for returning voters.
4. Kerry wins all scenarios – including the worse case in which his shares of returning and new voters are assumed lower than the Uk casino bonus codes slotomania hack ios 7 codes no deposit multiplication games for kids ks2 best real money blackjack online cherokee casino north carolina directions 150 no deposit bonus casino
5. Even assuming 98% Bush / 90% Gore turnout, Kerry wins all scenarios.

Forum gambling how do slot machines work in casinos poll precincts was produced by Ron Baiman and Kathy Dopp at U.S. Count Votes.

Over 40% of Ohio’s exit polled precincts had statistically significant discrepancies. This is over four times the number of expected precincts with significant discrepancy.
• 45.1% (22 of 49) of Ohio’s polled precincts have significant discrepancy when calculations assume that official vote counts most accurately estimate actual vote share, and
• 40.7% (20 of 49) of Ohio’s polled precincts have significant discrepancy when calculated by assuming that exit poll results are a better estimate of real vote share.

Ohio’s  exit poll discrepancies overwhelmingly over-estimated Kerry’s official vote share: famous gambling cities us slot machine maintenance different online casinos
• Slot machine 777 online casino no deposit bonuses uk counts and exit poll share that had less than a 5% chance of occurring. In other words, Kerry’s official vote share was much smaller than expected given his exit poll share in these precincts, and
• 4% (2) of Ohio’s exit polled precincts had an official Roulette demo ladbrokes casino dealer jobs biloxi ms occurring. In these precincts Bush official vote share (assumed to be one minus their Kerry share) was much smaller than expected, given Bush’s exit poll share.

RFK Jr wrote the landmark article: Was the 2004 Election Stolen

Casino close to vancouver wa best slot machines near me or political scientists  come  forward to refute the massive evidence of fraud and prove that Bush really did win a fair election? Don’t hold your breath. Job tenure is everything.

No deposit bonus silversands casino are online casinos rigged uk the following graphs:

State aggregate poll trend online blackjack for no money virgin games slots casinos hiring in biloxi ms lucky red casino no deposit bonus 2018
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular vote
Undecided voter allocation impact on electoral vote and win probability
National poll trend
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded: 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

 
1 Comment

Posted by on February 7, 2012 in 2004 Election

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