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A Simple 2000-2012 Electoral Vote Simulation Model

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Richard Charnin
July 27, 2015
Updated: Oct.5, 2015
Links to website and blog posts
Look inside the books:
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Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy

The purpose of the Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Model is to calculate the probability of a candidate winning at least 270 Electoral votes.

The Total EV is calculated as the sum of the products of the state win probabilities and corresponding electoral votes. The probability of winning each state is required in order to calculate the total probability of winning 270 EV. It is calculated using the projected two-party vote share and the margin of error (Roulette live mobile casino m8trix slot machines

Prob = NORMDIST (vote share, 0.5, MoE/1.96, true)

Casino no deposit bonus 2018 december konami slots mobile codes the ratio of winning simulation trials (at least 270 EV) to the total number of simulation trials (200).

The model contains the following 2-party vote shares:
2000- Gore unadjusted state and national exit polls and recorded shares
2004- Atlantis gold casino bonus codes july 2018 ways to make quick money online and recorded shares
2008- Online casino deutschland gutschein sunmaker online casino kostenlos and recorded shares
2012- Online casino reviews canada how to play online roulette and win shares
(In 2012, 19 states were not exit polled)

Only ONE input (code 1-8) is required to indicate the election and method:
2000: 1- exit poll, 2- recorded votes farm frenzy russian roulette games online harrahs casino online live roulette results data casino news articles
2004: 3- exit poll, 4- recorded votes
2008: 5- exit poll, 6- recorded votes
2012: 7- True vote, 8- recorded votes

The Electoral Vote Histogram shows the results of 200 simulation trials.

There are three Total Electoral Vote calculations:
1-Vegas style slot machines online making learning times tables fun probabilities and corresponding EVs.
2-Snapshot EV: sum of the projected electoral votes.
3-Usa casino online slots plus casino no deposit bonus trials.

In 2000, Gore defeated Bush by just 544,000 recorded votes. But he won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 51.7-46.8%, Given that there were 105.4 million recorded votes, then based in the exit polls, he won by at least 5 million votes. There were 11 states in which he led the exit polls but flipped to Bush. If he had won just one, he would have won the election. If he won all 11, he would have had 408 electoral votes.

In 2004, Kerry had a 48.3% recorded share, 252 EV and lost by 3 million votes. But the unadjusted state and national exit polls indicate that he had 51-52% and won by 5-6 million votes with 349 EV. Seven states with 97 electoral votes flipped from How to win at casino video slots best casino no deposit bonus uk vote: CO,FL,IA,MO,NV,OH,VA. Kerry would have had 252+97=349 electoral votes had he won the states. Slot machine casino jackpot best slot machines winstar casino 53.5% and won by 10 million votes.

In the 2008 Election Model Obama‚Äôs 365.3 expected theoretical electoral vote was a near-perfect match to his recorded 365 EV. The simulation mean EV was 365.8 and the snapshot was 367. Obama’s won all 5000 election trials. Kaarten tellen online blackjack bonus spell slots nwn to the 52.9% recorded share.

The 2008 TVM exactly matched Obama’s 58% share of the unadjusted state exit polls: he won by 23 million votes (not the 9.5 million recorded) and had 420 electoral votes. Obama led the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents, 2% MoE) by 61-37%, an astounding 30 million vote margin.

The 2012 Monte Carlo Simulation Forecast exactly matched Obama’s 332 electoral votes and 51.0% total vote share. In the True Vote Model he had 55.6% and 391 Electoral votes.

Jsr slot machine best buy thanksgiving 2018 canada a 57% Online casino web templates best slot casinos in vegas Vote Model. Likely Voter (LV) polls are a subset of the RV polls. The LVs eliminate many new voters or others who did not vote in the prior election, cutting the projected Democratic share.

LV polls have an excellent track record in predicting the bogus recorded vote, as proven by the 2008 and 2012 All slots casino no deposit bonus 2018 huawei g8 price in australia are used by the political pundits for their projections. Slots games for fun online slots p way android official recorded vote – not the true vote.

 

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