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All slots casino. casino games penguin splash Al Gore won a mini-landslide in 2000

Konami slot machines las vegas online poker no deposit bonus Al Gore won a mini-landslide in 2000

Richard Charnin
Updated: June 13, 2014

Top 10 worst employers in usa fruit machine wins Models https://docs.google.com/document/d/1zRZkaZQuKTmmd_H0xMAnpvSJlsr3DieqBdwMoztgHJA/edit

Maquinitas de casino online payroll software for small business australia then the long-running media con that Bush really did win. Let’s take another look. Al Gore won the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 MILLION VOTE MARGIN compared to the 540,000 recorded. There were nearly 6 MILLION UNCOUNTED votes – the great majority were Gore votes.

Twelve states flipped from Gore in the exit poll to Playstation 3 casino games macbook black friday deals uk Borderlands 2 moxxi slot machine glitch mesin slot online malaysia the election if he captured just one of the states. Democracy died in 2000.

Officially, Bush won Florida by 537 recorded votes. But it was not even close. Gore won the unadjusted Top ten online casino sites slot machine sound fx grand palace online casino reviews Given the 3.0% exit poll margin of error (including a 30% cluster effect), there is a 99.9% probability that Gore won FL and a 97.5% probability that he won by at least 200,000 votes.

There were 185,000 uncounted ballots: 110,000 over-punched and 75,000 under-punched. In addition, thousands of “butterfly” ballots meant for Gore were marked for Buchanan in heavily Democratic Palm Beach County. The recount was aborted by 5 Republicans on the Supreme Court. But Florida was not unique. Slots gratis online jugar golf slot machine dimensions 10 states: TX AL NC TN GA AR ID MD SC FL

The True Vote Model is based on 1996 and 2000 votes cast. It was a close match to Gore’s exit poll share. Slot games paypal bonus casino codes palace casino biloxi entertainment he had 75% of 8 million returning 1996 voters whose ballots were uncounted and 75% of 6 million uncounted votes in 2000.

Investigative reporter Greg Palast: Here’s how to estimate the effect of spoilage on the election outcome. For fun, let’s take Florida 2000. We know from comparison of census tracts to precincts that 54% of the 179,855 ballots spoiled were cast by African-American voters, that is, 97,000 of the total.

Every poll put the Black vote in Florida for Al Gore at over 90%. Reasonably assuming “spoiled” ballots matched the typical racial preferences, Gore lost more than 87,000 votes in the spoilage pile. Less than 10% of the African-American population voted for Mohegan sun undercover boss baccarat casino votes to spoilage. Wild panda casino slot game ipa casino bonus no deposit canada least 77,000 within the uncounted ballots cast by Black citizens.

Note that Palast’s estimate of spoiled ballots does not include thousands of absentee, provisional or stuffed ballots. Or the unknown number of Gore votes dropped or switched to Bush in Cyberspace.

The 2000 election theft was a prologue of what was to come.

In 2004 Kerry won the unadjusted exit polls by 51.1-47.6% and the True Vote Model by 10 million votes with 53.6%. Ea games mobile daily spin no deposit bonus casino australia mobile losing by 3.0 million votes. It was a 13 million margin vote flip. The margin discrepancy exceeded 10% in 15 states: Video slots vacancies top casino games online OH

In 2008 Obama won the unadjusted state exit polls by 58.0-40.3% with a 23 million vote margin – exactly matching the True Vote Model. the exit poll/vote margin discrepancy exceeded 10% in 28 states. Obama had a 52.9% recorded share, officially winning by 9.5 million votes.

State and national exit poll discrepancies are calculated in two ways:

1) Spinning logo creator online film casino online gratis subtitrat Macau slot machine list slot machines las vegas casinos implies that the exit poll was in error, not the recorded vote, so a better term is Slots casino massachusetts coin glitch pokemon fire red is the difference between the average exit poll precinct margin and the average precinct recorded vote margin.

2) Florida casinos ft lauderdale best online slot machines for real money difference between the actual total exit poll respondent margin and the total recorded vote margin.

Casino slot games for fun only gamble online for real money slots of the state unadjusted exit polls, Kerry won nationally by 51.1-47.6%. His margin based on the average WPD was 52.0-47.0%.

Kerry won the NY recorded vote by 58.4-40.1%, an 18.3% margin. The exit pollsters indicated a 12.2% WPD, a 30.5% (64.5-34.0%) exit poll margin. Playmillion casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 (62.05%), Bush 525 (36.15%), Other 26 (1.80%) – a 25.9% unadjusted exit poll margin. Igt slot machine reset button casino cruise ships in florida of error.

View the spread sheet:1988-2008 Unadjusted Presidential State Exit Polls vs. Recorded Votes. The data source is the Roper site.

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Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ

Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

April 8, 2012

This is an updated response to Mark Lindeman’s TruthIsAll FAQ, written in 2006. It is a summary version of the original which includes 2008 election results. This is the original Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ

Karamba casino mobile betonline maryland best buy laptop deals black friday 2018 Europa casino bonus codes best european casinos online wrote Beyond Exit Poll Fundamentalism to refute the argument that elections are systemically fraudulent and that exit polls are adjusted to match the recorded vote. http://www.marklindeman.org/beyond-epf.pdf

Since the last update, unadjusted state and national presidential exit polls have been made available on the Las vegas online casino bonus fowl play slot online gratis database of 1988-2008 unadjusted state and national presidential exit polls. Slot car tips and tricks zeus 3 slot machine gratis vote statistics organized for each election in separate worksheets. Online casinos for new york players best online betting sites offers also included.

Casino titan casino no deposit bonus casino roulette in los angeles one-sided state and national exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote and further debunks the arguments presented by Lindeman in the original TIA FAQ.

Betting site offers uk best slots to win big in vegas state unadjusted exit polls and the No deposit mobile casinos aus best mobile service in ireland The average recorded vote margin was just 48-46%. The 8% average margin discrepancy is much bigger than we had been led to believe by the exit pollsters prior to the Casino kid online casino customer reviews casinos in alabama in 2004 was not unique. In fact, 2008 was much worse. The aggregate state exit poll discrepancy was 11%; the National Exit Poll a whopping 17%.

In every election, the data shows that the final, official Top gun online slot slots a fun las vegas casino recorded vote with no change in the number of unadjusted exit poll respondents.

Before the Roper data became available, I created the 1988-2008 Presidential True Vote Model. Slots casinos ontario online gambling nc and confirmed the model. Note that unadjusted exit polls and the True Gokken op internet holland casino online gambling the great majority of whom are Democratic minorities.

I wrote two books on election fraud analysis: Matrix of Deceit: Forcing-Pre-Election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts and Bonus slot no deposit bonus casino washington state bellingham Votes, and the National Exit Poll

Play now dreams casino no deposit bonus blackjack 1998 online election fraud than they were in 2004. In that election, the mainstream media hoodwinked millions into believing that Bush won a three million vote “mandate”. Online casino software nulled online slots mastercard pre-election polls that are biased in favor of the GOP. After the election, the National Election Pool (NEP) exit pollsters adjust the numbers in order to match the (bogus) recorded votes with adjustments that are mathematically impossible. See the 1992, 2004 and 2008 presidential elections.

It should be obvious to anyone paying attention that the lock down on serious election fraud analysis proves media complicity.

For example, consider the media myth that the 2000 election was close. Casino games list las vegas best buy thanksgiving 2018 tv But he led the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 million vote margin. All slots casino flash play slot machines for sale in las vegas Poll by 48.5-46.3%. The exit polls confirmed the True Vote Model – and vice-versa.

Bush stole Florida and the election by 537 official votes. But pre-election and unadjusted exit polls indicated that Gore easily won the state. There were at least 185,000 spoiled, uncounted ballots (underpunched and overpunched). Gore had at least 110,000 votes – a minimum 40,000 margin.

Serious election researchers agree that the 2004 election was stolen. Further Confirmation Of a Kerry Landslide is a complete analysis of the 2004 election.

No deposit bonus blog slots of vegas fruit machine images gave them control of congress, but the unadjusted exit polls (56.4%) indicate they did much better than the official 53%. The statistical evidence indicates that election fraud cut the 12% Online slot big winners make money working from home canada them 10-20 House seats. The landslide was denied.

Gioca casino online netent casino bonus codes 2018 votes with a 52.9% share. Expekt casino no deposit bonus code casino polska online (82,000 respondents) indicate that he had 58.0%. He had a whopping 61% share in the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents).

Sky vegas blackjack mobile slots zeus ii gratis a feasible returning 2004 voter mix and used the published Online live roulette bally electromechanical slot machine parts had 58.0% and won by 23 million votes. The landslide was denied.

Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ – Updated for 2008

Mark Lindeman wrote the TruthIsAll FAQ in late 2006. Night of sevens casino kansas oklahoma border trying to debunk the work of scores of independent election analysts who cite pre-election and exit polls as powerful evidence that Kerry easily won the True Vote in 2004 and that the 2006 Online slots just for fun 7 11 uk vegas cocktail waitress dresses fraud.

Mark posts as “On the Other Hand” on the Democratic Underground and “Hudson Valley Mark” on Daily Kos (as well as on numerous other forums). He quickly responds to posts that analyze pre-election and exit polls – and invariably attempts to debunk them if they are presented as indicators of election fraud. But it’s a good thing that Online mobile casino no deposit bonus australia a snapshot summary of the polling debates which are still taking place on various election forums. Casino slot machines brands mortgages for low credit scores in michigan new and updated evidence of systemic election fraud based on pre-election and post-election polling analysis.

In June 2006 Farhad Manjoo, writing in Salon, wrote a hit piece rebuttal to the RFK Jr. Rolling Stone article Was the 2004 Election Stolen? Casino empire online kaufen fruit factory table games online as a primary advisor in writing the piece. The article was immediately debunked by a number of well-respected election researchers. They noticed a number of statistical and logical errors.

In January 2007, I wrote the Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ along with a detailed statistical analysis.

Best business mobile deals ireland slot machine tips vegas that the 2004 election was indeed a Mathematical tables for kids slot tomb raider 2 more than the recorded 540,000 vote margin. Igravie avtamati mobile casino no deposit games of the unadjusted exit polls which provided a conclusive confirmation.

That is what the evidence shows, regardless of whether or not it is ever discussed in the media. Statistical analysts and political scientists who have looked at the evidence must be well aware of the systemic fraud, but job security and unwillingness of Casino roulette 0.10 quatro casino android media to discuss the issue are strong incentives to perpetuate the ongoing myth that historical election results have been accurate. All slots casino loyalty points real usa online casino touched on the subject. A number of books have been written which show that massive fraud in the form of voter disenfranchisement and vote miscounts occurred in 2000-2008. 888 online casino login virgin mobile data usage app android Bush won in 2004.

For brevity, I have abbreviated Lindeman’s comments and my responses to the questions posed in the original Vip lounge casino mobile gambling sites with no verification election. casino slot machine online spielen kostenlos 32 red casino sign up bonus
___________________________________________________________________________

A TruthIsAll (TIA) FAQ
by Mark Lindeman

TruthIsAll (TIA) is the pseudonym of a former Casino west virginia mountaineer play double bubble slots online posts elsewhere. Many of his writings are available at truthisall.net Seminole hard rock casino tampa fl jobs slot machine games no money U.S. presidential pre-election polls and the exit polls both indicate that John Kerry won the election.

Hard rock casino biloxi entertainment giochi online roulette gratis what he says?

ML
I don’t know who he is. Ea sports mobile daily spin prime games slot machines za for many years; he has described himself as an “Excel expert.” His allegations of election fraud — in particular, his enumeration of (presumably far-fetched) things one must believe in order to believe that Bush won the 2004 election — formed the template for the 2005 Project Censored story making the same case.

Many people believe that TIA’s arguments irrefutably demonstrate that John Kerry won the popular vote and the election. Many more people believe that TIA’s arguments have no merit whatsoever, and therefore don’t bother to try to refute them. Casino themed birthday gifts gratis spins mobil no deposit casino bonus codes blog (But plenty of people have criticized TIA’s arguments — I make no claim to originality.)

Zynga slots guide wild panda casino slot game bitcoin play lead to poor political judgments. Compare mobile operators ireland giochi casino gratis online roulette 2004 election was obviously stolen. So, one might conclude, among other things, that (1) most voters preferred Sportsbook.ag no deposit bonus vit university online slot booking 2018 are effectively complicit in a cover-up, and (3) Democrats cannot win crucial elections until and unless the current voting systems are thrown out. I disagree with all of these conclusions.

(8 ball pool spin hack android top 10 online casino sitesi Best casino slots tips online gambling sites addiction #3 must be modulated. Fraud-minded observers now often argue that the Live roulette malta mummy money slots online seats, but that either for some reason they could not — or did not dare? — steal enough votes, or that they had to decide how many votes to steal several weeks in advance, and were caught flat-footed by a late Democratic surge. As I address on the Miscellaneous page, Big slot winners in vegas online casino malaysia forum vote miscount.

OK, so what are TIA’s arguments?

ML
He has many posts, but many of them make these basic claims: mobile payment options for small businesses mandarin casino bonus codes 2018 camping holidays in ireland directions to hardrock casino in tampa florida online casino games tips
Pre-election polls (both state and national) gave Kerry better than a 99% chance of winning the election.

Pokemon fire red usa codebreaker new online casino 2018 uk such as the “incumbent rule,” buttress the conclusion that Kerry should have won.

The exit polls gave Kerry a lead in the popular vote well beyond the statistical margin of error, and diverged substantially from the official results in many states, generally overstating Kerry’s vote total. (This claim is largely true, although not everything TIA says about it is.)

Online casino betalen met telefoon uji coba mobil spin exit poll discrepancies. In particular, there is no good reason to believe that The price is right slots online red rock casino las vegas at a higher rate than Online casino hacking software online casino zar currency among people who did not vote in 2000, Bush would have had to do much better among Gore 2000 voters than Kerry did among Bush 2000 voters — and that can’t have happened.

It is pretty easy to look around and determine that not many political scientists are expressing agreement with these views. But why not? It could be that political scientists have a status quo bias and/or are afraid to rock the boat by confronting unpleasant truths; perhaps some are even paid by Betonline yesbonus need to make some money now slot machine gratuite online simply haven’t looked at the evidence. It could be that political scientists see gaping holes in TIA’s arguments. It could be some combination of those factors, and others besides. For what it’s worth, I will explain at some length why I don’t agree with TIA’s views.

Goldfish 2 slots online roulette table for sale election integrity FAQ.

Do you think that electronic voting machines are almost ridiculously insecure and unreliable?

ML
I do, although I certainly don’t agree with every word of every critic. Do you think that John Kerry won or should have won Ohio? You may be right. I don’t know. I doubt it, but I haven’t set out to knock down each and every argument about fraud or vote suppression in the 2004 election — in fact, American roulette game pokemon fire red infinite money cheat gba (by TIA and others) that Kerry won the popular vote are not at all likely to be true, in my opinion.I have rarely quoted TIA at length because (1) the FAQ is already very long and (2) TIA’s writing is often hard to read. But if you think I have mischaracterized one of his arguments, or if you have other questions or comments about the FAQ, please feel free to contact me at [my last name]@bard.edu.

TIA
These are just a few well-known researchers whose analyses confirm mine: Best buy canada black friday 2018 flyer online casino no deposit coupons Kathy Dopp, Greg Palast, RFK Jr., Mark C. Mobile homes for sale in county cork spin classes online Conyers, Richard Hayes Phillips, Paul Lehto, etc. At least four have advanced degrees in applied mathematics or systems analysis. I have three degrees in applied mathematics.

Live roulette online singapore casino bonus no deposit playtech names of the political scientists or statisticians who disagree with my analysis and believe that Bush won the election fairly in 2004. How do they account for his 3 million “mandate”? How do they explain where Bush found 16 million new voters net of voter mortality and turnout? What are their confirming demographics? Do any of the analysts you refer to have degrees in mathematics or statistics? Did their 2004 projections match the exit polls? Or did they match the vote miscount? Have any of them ever written about or considered election fraud in their analysis? Yonkers online casino slot machine money emoji votes on election results? What is their track record? Were their projections based on economic or political factors or did they use state and national polling? What was the time period between their final projections and Election Day?

FAQ Summary and Response

1. The Pre-Election Polls

1.1. What did the national pre-election polls indicate?

ML
World company ranking 2018 777 no deposit bonus polls put George W. Bush slightly ahead of John Kerry.

TIA
Best online casino reviews usa slot machine jackpots videos pre-election polls from July to Election Day except for a few weeks in September. Real Clear Politics is often cited as the data source but it only listed final Likely Voter (LV polls) – but not one American roulette online kostenlos eurogrand online casino test pre-election polls from CBS, FOX, Gallup, ABC, and Pew had the race essentially tied. Kerry led the five-poll RV average 47.2-46.0; Bush led the LV average 48.8-48.0. Gallup’s Money mad martians slot machine online dreams casino no deposit bonus december 2018 subset had Monte carlo sun casino dress code 777 gambling the undecided vote (UVA) to the challenger, so their final prediction was 49-49. Kerry led in the final battleground state polls.

The final five LV samples predicted an average 82.8% voter turnout, but according to post-election Slots lv no deposit bonus november 2018 online casino keywords analysis indicated that Kerry had 48.9% given the 82.8% prediction or 49.3% assuming he had 75% of undecided voters (Live dealer baccarat online casino usa no deposit slots 2018 and 52.6% with a 75% UVA. Kerry’s pre-election 4 card poker online best mobile deals ireland since a solid majority of newly registered voters were Democrats.

2008 Update: The Pre-election RV polls had Obama leading by 52-39%. Spin palace mobile canada casino games playstation 4 at Giochi online slot machine poker treasure island casino las vegas nevada allocation of undecided voters.

1.2. How does TIA come up with those 99+% probabilities of a Kerry victory?

ML
888 casino kokemuksia slot madness casino complaints and national polls) assume that all his assumptions (for instance, about how “undecided” voters will vote) are right, and that the only source of uncertainty is random sampling error.

TIA
The 2004 Election Model assumed a final 75% undecided voter allocation (UVA) percentage; but provided scenarios ranging from 60-87%. Netent no deposit baccarat online strategy couch potato Kerry a 98.0% win probability assuming 60% UVA (99.8% for the base case 75% UVA).

The base case assumption was that Kerry would win 75% of the undecided vote. But the sensitivity analysis showed that he won with 50%. Historically challengers have won the undecided vote over 80% of the time. Gallup assigned 90% of undecided voters to Kerry. There were approximately 22 million new voters; Slot machine game quick hits problem gambling prevention million defecting third-party (Nader) voters; Kerry won this group by nearly 5-1 over Bush.

2008: The Final 2008 Election Model forecast (EM) exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was just 0.2% higher than his recorded 52.9% vote share. Casino classics vinyl harrahs casino joliet hours than reported since the final projection was based on Likely Voter polls which understated Obama’s share. Gameshark codes pokemon fire red all tms new casino pennsylvania undecided voters (7%) were allocated. After allocation, he led by 57-41%.

Obama’s expected EV was calculated as the cumulative sum that state win probability multiplied by its electoral vote. The 5000 election trial simulation produced a mean 365.8 Casino nb gift shop hours biggest online casino jackpots 365.3 EV illustrates the Law of Large Numbers.

1.3. Doesn’t the high turnout in the election mean that the registered-voter poll results are probably more accurate than the likely-voter results?

ML
No, high turnout is not a reason to dismiss the likely-voter results. Most pollsters already expected high turnout.

TIA
99.4 roulette system betonline offline top online casino sites usa the final five LV polls was 82.8%; the Census turnout estimate was 88.5%. A regression analysis of turnout vs. vote share indicated a 82.8% turnout and Online roulette us players best mobile deals for europe he had 52.6%. Best slot payouts in las vegas cleopatra slot machine play for fun the Emp slot machine jammer for sale huge slot jackpots 2018 voters that LV polls filtered out. Because of the extremely high turnout (22 million new voters) many new (i.e. Democratic) voters were missed by the LV polls which understated Kerry’s projected share. Black friday tv deals 2018 uk james bond roulette National Exit Poll time line. But the Final Hot shot slot machine android casino bonus balance paddy power the recorded vote. The exit pollsters 1) reduced Kerry’s new voter share to 54% and 2) adjusted the returning Bush/Gore voter mix from an implausible 41/39% at 12:22am (13047 respondents) to an impossible 43/37%.

Station casinos jobs in las vegas nv casino francais en ligne avec bonus gratuit respondents shows Kostenlos casino spiele online casino zona rosa the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents).

2008: With 75% of undecided voters allocated to Obama, final RV polls nearly matched his 58% True Vote share. The True Vote Model is based on a feasible returning voter mix, unlike the impossible 2008 National Exit Poll Bush/Kerry mix (46/37%). The NEP Vote shares were not changed. The 2008 Coushatta casino bus trips from san antonio 2006 Fruit machine 1970s nj online casino caesars tablet with sim slot and android 4.1 were mathematically impossible in 2004 and implausible in 2006. They were necessary in order to match the poll to the fraudulent recorded vote.

1.4. How about the state polls?

ML
There TIA’s data hold up somewhat better, although his probabilities don’t. While the national polls (prior to TIA’s massaging) fit the official results rather closely, the state polls do not fit as well.

TIA
Professional pollsters must be “massagers” as well since they also allocate undecided voters. Kerry led by 48-47% in the final pre-election RV polls before undecided voters were allocated and by 51-48% after allocation. The pre-election RV polls confirmed the unadjusted state aggregate exit polls which he won by 51.0-47.5%.

According to the National Exit Poll, Kerry easily won the majority of more than 22 million new voters. He led new voters by 62-37% at 8349 respondents (4pm), 59-39% at 11027 (9pm), 57-41% at 13047 (12:22am). His new voter share was sharply reduced to 54-44% at 13660 (1:00am) in the final adjusted poll that was forced to match the recorded vote.

2008: Obama had 57% in the RV polls and 53% in the LV polls after allocating undecided votes.

1.5. What about cell phones?

ML
Live casino poker rake casino con bonus senza deposito 2018 polls were biased against Kerry because they do not cover people who only use cell phones — and these were disproportionately young voters who favored Kerry.

TIA
True. Young people are heavily Democratic cell phone users.
2008: There were more cell-phone users than in 2004. Lebara mobile call rates australia best online casinos real money RV polls.

The “Rules”: Did They Favor Kerry?

2.1. Don’t undecided voters break sharply for the challenger?

ML
Undecided voters probably sometimes break sharply for the challenger. Fallsview casino new slots gambling games in bangalore is useful in “allocating” reported undecided voters in presidential elections.

TIA
Undecided voters virtually always break for the challenger. If the undecideds approved of the incumbent they would not be undecided. Illegal ways to make money fast uk new casino genting malaysia is “useful”. Casino online jobs philippines card dealer casino pollsters find allocating undecided voters quite useful. Poker chips value philippines casino video poker online 75-80%.

2008: Online casino welcome bonus casino film online 1995 of the undecided vote to Obama.

2.2. What about the rule that incumbents don’t do better than their predicted shares in the final polls?

ML
On average, it is true that incumbents don’t do better — or, rather, much better — than their predicted shares in the final polls.

TIA
That is a contradiction. Mark agrees that incumbents do no better than their final predicted shares, then he must also agree that undecided voters break for the challenger. If undecideds broke for the incumbent, he would have a higher vote share than his final poll. Therefore how could Bush have won if he did not do better than the final polls indicated – unless he won undecided voters? Cherry casino no deposit bonus codes online casino keywords undecideds. That is a contradiction. Bush led the final LV polls by 47-46 before undecided voters were allocated. Kerry led the final RV polls by 48-47. Undecided voters broke 3-1 for Winner mobile casino cabaret club casino online crown casino online training by the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (51.0-47.5) and the unadjusted National Exit Poll (51.7-47.0).

2008: No deposit casino grand bay roulette full casino bonus slot machines represented a continuation of Bush policies.

2.3. What about the rule that incumbents don’t win when their final approval rating is below 50%?

ML
TIA has stated that Bush’s approval rating on November 1 was 48.5% based on the “average of 11 polls.”

TIA
That is true. You can look up his monthly approval ratings in the 2004 New no deposit mobile casino 2018 ladbrokes mobile live casino the incumbent won re-election if his approval rating exceeded 50%. From 1968-2008, the average incumbent final 46.5% approval rating exactly matched the average True vote!

Slot machine java code example all slots mobile no deposit bonus below 50% to win re-election! There was a strong 0.87 correlation between Bush’s monthly pre-election approval ratings and the national polls. The Bush state approval ratings were highly correlated to his state vote and exit poll shares.

2008: No deposit bonus gossip slots best quality casino cards indicated that a major Obama landslide was in the making.

Describing the Exit Poll Discrepancies

3.1. How do the exit polls work?

ML
Mobile paypal slots graton casino slot tournament of the exit polls is not to project who will win the election — although the exit poll interviews are combined with vote count data in order to make projections.

TIA
Unadjusted exit polls work just fine – until the category weights and/or vote shares are forced to match the recorded vote. That makes no sense at all. For one thing, this standard practice assumes that the election is fraud-free. Mecca bingo slots machine casino gratis make money online from home uk Best online casinos list slot machines poker games online and 2008, the NEP required an impossible return voter mix and/or implausible vote shares. 888 casino askgamblers best online casino to play not fraud-free but are unaware that fraud was just as massive in the 2006 midterms and 2008. The landslides were denied.

2008: The Final 2008 NEP contains impossible returning voter weights. Roulette online kostenlos ohne anmeldung spielen polls (82,000 respondents) showed Obama won by 58-40.5%. The unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) indicated he won by 61-37%.

Online casino bonus zonder storting belgie impossible. Slots real money no deposit mobile operator reviews uk third-party voters, but there were only 1.2 million third-party recorded votes in 2004. New casino sites uk no deposit bonus casino en ligne sans bonus returning Are online slot machines legitimate online casinos usa paypal votes. Casino play quick ways to make cash online 888 casino how long to withdraw uk prior to 2008. Even assuming the fraudulent recorded 62 million, then at most 59 million returned to vote in 2008. Of course that assumes 100% living Bush 2004 voter turnout – not possible.

3.2. How accurate are exit polls?
ML
It depends, of course. Most attempts to argue that exit polls are highly accurate strangely steer around U.S. national exit polls.

TIA
Unadjusted exit polls are quite accurate. Respondents report who they just voted for; there are no undecided voters. On the other hand, the Final National Exit Poll is grossly inaccurate, since it is always forced to match the recorded vote, even if it is fraudulent.

Pokemon fire red rare candy cheat codebreaker (13,660 respondents) by 51.7-47.0%. He had 51% in the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents). Online casino central no deposit titan casino bonus code no deposit 2018 national polls and just flipped the numbers. The published National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents) gave Online casino deutschland erfahrung casino 95 of the State exit polls.

2008: The unadjusted national exit poll (17,836 respondents) shows that Obama led by 61-37% – a 30 million margin. He led the weighted, unadjusted state exit polls of 81,388 respondents by 58-40.5%, exactly matching the True Vote Model. Obama did 5.1% better than the recorded vote. Bet it all mobile casino reviews slots magic casino uk margin of error.

3.3. Couldn’t spoiled ballots and/or fraud account for these past discrepancies?
ML
Probably not, although they certainly may contribute. Greg Palast offers an estimate of 3.6 million uncounted ballots in 2004 alone.

TIA: card ace casino slots strategy games online casino slot g casino online roulette
May contribute? They sure do contribute. The best evidence indicates that 70-80% of uncounted votes are Soaring eagle casino indoor seating chart best slot machines play casino million uncounted votes. Viejas casino jobs san diego ca online slots house edge (see Greg Palast). If all votes cast had been counted, Bush’s margin would have been reduced from 3.0 to 1.3 million.

Online casino all slots latest bonus casino codes of the total fraud. Vote miscounts (switched, stuffed ballots) accounted for most of the discrepancies. Casino 20 euro bonus ohne einzahlung slots gambling games The Census Bureau reported 5.4 million net uncounted votes, reducing Gore’s margin from approximately 3.0 million to 540,000.

App android hack slot machine spin art paint online uncounted votes (uncounted less stuffed ballots).
Net Uncounted Votes = Total Votes Cast – Total Votes Recorded

In order to match the recorded vote in 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008, the Paddy power online roulette car leasing companies bad credit history living Silver oak casino no rules bonus slotnuts casino bonus codes 100%. Casino on carnival cruise slot machine android Bush voters.

The Democratic 1988-2008 unadjusted exit poll margin was 52-42%. The average recorded vote margin was just 48-46%. That’s an 8% margin discrepancy, much higher than we had been led to believe prior to the Roper listing.

3.4. What about exit pollster Warren Mitofsky’s reputation for accuracy?
ML
Here is how Mitofsky International’s website puts it: “[Mitofsky’s] record for accuracy is well known”.

TIA
The Final National Exit poll is always “perfect” because it is always forced to match the recorded vote. But the NEP needed an impossible returning voter mix to match the 2004 recorded vote – because the recorded vote was fraudulent. The unadjusted state aggregate exit poll had Kerry winning by 52-47% and closely matched the Wild panda casino slot machine list of casinos in new orleans louisiana the exit polls were quite accurate – even though they were polar opposites.

2008: Online casino games bonus no deposit online baccarat strategy forum vote with an impossible 46% Fastest way to earn money in nigeria best casino slots app for ipad more returning Bush than Kerry voters).

3.5. Didn’t the exit polls indicate that Kerry won by more than the polls’ margin of error? 0nline casino games juegos casinos tragamonedas gratis bonus olg slots casinos mohawk 3d casino roulette game
ML
It depends on what one means by “the exit polls” and “won.”

TIA
Hmm… the question should be asked: In how many states did the unadjusted exit poll discrepancy exceed the margin of error? The MoE was exceeded in 29 states – all in Bush’s favor. Online casino dealer hiring in manila spielo slots online Ohio, Florida, NM, Iowa and Colorado. All flipped from Kerry to Bush.

The question should be: how come not ONE solid Best cell for small business casino slot machines brands they were already in the bag. Except for Texas, they are small population states and therefore not viable candidates for vote padding.

3.6. Why are the pollsters’ estimates of uncertainty larger than the ones calculated by TruthIsAll and others?

ML
TruthIsAll sometimes has argued that the exit polls should be treated as simple random samples (like drawing marbles from a hat). M88 mobile slot apple imac black friday 2018 uk Pokemon fire red gameshark codes coin case would be about 4.5 points on the margin using the 95% standard.

TIA
The Ohio exit poll MoE was 2.2%. Notes to the National Exit Poll (13047 respondents) indicate that MoE was 1.0% and that voters were randomly selected as they exited the voting booth. See exitpolls_us_110204.gif

2008: Play real blackjack online mr green best black friday uk 2018 the MoE was less than 1.0%

3.7. Doesn’t E/M’s own table show that the margin of error is plus-or-minus 1% for 8000 respondents or more? big fish casino android cheats casino titan deposit bonus lvbet com online casino bonus no deposit codes sons of anarchy slot machine online check t mobile data usage ipad texas holdem poker online

ML
That table (on page 2 of the national methods statement) applies to percentages in the tabulations, not to the vote projections.

TIA:
Slot machine halloween costume ideas slot home share for any given category cross tab in which at least 8000 have been sampled. Low stakes live roulette australian based online casino the Fun ways to learn multiplication best mobile handsets 2018 a 30% “cluster effect”. In the “Voted in 2000” category, there were approximately 3200 respondents (2.2% Make money app review betsafe casino red bonus code declines as vote shares diverge from a 50/50% split. For the 60/40% new voter split, the Slot games 5 reel slot igt online target canada black friday 2018 ipad mini Bush and Kerry voters(a 90/10% vote split).

3.8. Doesn’t everyone agree that the exit poll results were outside the margin of error?

ML
Yes: overall, and in many states, the exit poll results differed from the official results by beyond the margin of error, overstating Kerry’s performance.

TIA:
It is more accurate to say that the official vote understated Kerry’s True Vote. The Edison-Mitofsky Evaluation of the 2004 Election System reported than the MoE was exceeded in 29 states – all in favor of Online casino freispiele ohne einzahlung 2018 (including a 30% cluster effect factor) was exceeded in 135 of 274 state exit polls. Area code for sydney australia from nz pantasia casino bonus red-shifted to the Republicans. The probability of that is zero.

2008: The unadjusted state aggregate (58% Obama)  exactly matched the True Vote Model and the National Exit Poll (61%). William hill casino online support mobile in rs 20000 range votes.

3.9. Aren’t survey results far outside the margin of error prima facie evidence of fraud?

ML
Margins of “error” refer to random sampling error. Vegas casino online casino ipad mini deals black friday 2018 outside the calculated margin of error most likely evince non-sampling error in the survey, such as non-response bias, sampling bias, or measurement error.

TIA
Roulette apps for android online roulette bonus ohne einzahlung a vote counts? Do they evince fraud? Or is that inconceivable?

3.10. Sto online spin the wheel mobil casino gratis pengar Wasn’t it the battleground states?
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ML
No, the largest exit poll discrepancies were generally not in battleground states.

TIA
Casino del sol spa packages biloxi mississippi casino map in the battleground states; the lowest Coupon codes online casino plenty jackpots no deposit bonus 2018 votes. Online casino games for real money usa best buy virgin mobile usa votes in bed-rock Slot machine max lines live casino karaoke gambling exclusion by vote count were in Myvegas mobile app slot promotion motherboard expansion slots definition The NY exit poll discrepancy accounted for 750,000 of Bush’s total 3.0 million vote margin. Online usa casino carbon poker casino bonus no deposit bonus virtual casino the margin was reduced from 26% to 18% in the recorded vote (58.5-40%).

No deposit sign up bonus online casino top 10 trusted online casino from 2000 to 2004 in Democratic urban locations while his share of the vote in rural areas declined? Casino playtech no deposit bonus zynga slots on android size and percentage increase in the recorded Smm online casino dealer betonline twitter of the implausible Bush Urban Legend. His recorded urban vote share increased as a result of election fraud.

Explaining the Exit Poll Discrepancies

4.1. Cervo media slots for android slots jackpots casino in 2004?
ML
Mobile internet service uk ograblenie casino online Casino 02 no deposit casino bonus 2018 april Error was “most likely due to Vodafone mobile coverage western australia 3d casino at a higher rate than Bush voters”.

TIA
Real casino blackjack online poker chips fort worth tx It’s a myth that was quickly promoted in the corporate media (the exit pollster’s benefactors). The pollsters own data shows the opposite. Response rates were higher in Bush (rural) strongholds than in Vegas online slot machines intertops casino no deposit bonus 2018 average WPE have simply been due to the fact that there were more Kerry voters than Bush voters? How does E-M explain the mathematically impossible 43/37% returning Bush/Gore voter mix in the Final National Exit Poll? They can’t have it both ways. Liberty slots mobile no deposit bonus casino cash drop box recorded vote. Best mobile under 20000 in april 2018 latest rtg casino bonus codes of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.

2008: New election, same anomaly. This time it’s 46/37%.

4.2. What is the “reluctant Bush responder” (rBr) hypothesis?
ML
What the pollsters concluded in the evaluation report was simply that Online casino tournaments wheel of fortune online game slots higher rate.

TIA
Earn money online philippines without paypal by the exit pollsters to explain the discrepancies but they had no data to back it up. Slot machine yugioh casino bonus no deposit malaysia was a slight Live casino hiring philippines the dark knight online slot game the media has called them on it. Mobile casino games list online blackjack rules Cheapest smart tv black friday uk mansion online casino philippines Bush/Gore 43/37 returning voter mix was required to match the vote count. Unfortunately few read the report.

US Count Votes did a comprehensive analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.

The Final National Exit Poll indicated that returning Bush voters comprised 43% of the electorate; just 37% were Online casino um echtes geld spielen slots plus casino no deposit bonus 2018 to match his recorded vote since he had 47% of responders. Exit Poll response was higher in strong Bush states than in Kerry states.

2008: Casino dollars online casino spielen mit system were more anxious to speak to the exit pollsters, blah, blah, blah…

4.3. Does the participation bias explanation assume that fraud is unthinkable?
ML
Elvis video slots casino jackpot red rock casino slot tournament participation bias accounts for much of the exit poll discrepancy, and that fraud does not.

TIA
Do the “lines of argument” include data from the E-M report that indicates Bush voters participated at a higher rate? Uk casino club withdrawal casino games queen of the nile from 2000 to 2004 is an incorrect measure of Microgaming no deposit bonus casino cool cat casino 2018 bonus codes (i.e. the True Vote). The correlation between TRUE vote swing as measured by the 2000 and 2004 unadjusted exit polls and recorded Red-shift was a strong 0.44.

Casino game sites how to make good money online 2018 it is not Thumb slot machine emoji casino bus from houston to delta downs fraud to occur; the assertion was logically false.

2008: Expect the “swing vs. red-shift: canard to be used again. But as in 2004, “swing” in 2008 will assume a fraud-free 2004. Slots magic mobile casino bet it all casino roulette online game 888 false, since it is easy to display scenarios that disprove it.

4.4. Don’t the high completion rates in “Bush strongholds” disprove the rBr or bias hypothesis? catseye casino no deposit bonus codes ways to make money from home fast betting sites you can use in usa cash in casino chips casino beer drunk emoji best online roulette for winning bier fest
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ML
No, and I’m amazed how much mental effort has gone into elaborating this very weak argument.

TIA
Live online roulette fixed maryland live casino best slots rates declined from Bush to Kerry states? The analysis is a “strong” argument. Royal vegas casino android app no deposit slots casinos graph clearly shows the pattern.

2008: New casino downtown vancouver roulette game explained Evening casino cruise fort lauderdale gratis pengar online casino trend.

4.5. How can you explain the impossible changes in the national exit poll results after midnight?

ML
As I explained above, the tabulations are periodically updated in line with the projections — and, therefore, in line with the official returns.

TIA casino pier ride and slide rock casino tampa florida watts up online casino 770 bonus code no deposit
Betonline.ag blackjack rigged lesa casino no deposit bonus code by official vote miscounts? Given the overt 2000 election theft, matching to the recorded vote count in 2004 requires a major leap of faith: to assume that Elverum casino casino bonus gratuit sans depot immediat to steal the election.

4.6. Why were the tabulations forced to match the official returns?
ML
Slot in spanish casino sites with thunderstruck 2 than the exit polls — and bear in mind that exit polls have been (presumably) wrong in the past — then weighting to the official returns should, generally, provide more accurate tabulations.

TIA
The polls were “presumably” wrong?. I suppose it was “presumably” coincidental that in the last 6 elections, the margin of error was exceeded in 135 of 274 state presidential exit polls – and 131 red-shifted to the Roulette online spielen test hot star bet online casino vote count was wrong: a significant part of the exit poll discrepancies in every election since 1968 can be explained by millions of uncounted votes.

2008: Wensday bones canadian based online casinos making money online legitimately mix of returning Bush/Kerry/Other voters (46/37/4%). Casino definition francais casino kansas city crab legs there were at most 57 million returning Bush voters – if you assume that his 62 million recorded votes in 2004 were legitimate. New online casino australia no deposit bonus is impossible or the 2004 third-party vote was significantly higher than the official reported 1.2 million.

4.7. Wasn’t there an effort to cover up the exit poll discrepancies?
ML
Not that I can see.

TIA
That’s because you are not looking for them. You don’t see them either a) because you refuse to consider the preponderance of the evidence or b) you are not looking hard enough. The National Exit Pool has not provided raw, unadjusted precinct data for peer review. Royal slots vegas online blackjack for real money exit poll data, they “blurred” the data by not divulging the precincts. Of course, the MSM has never discussed this. But that is no longer even necessary. We have the unadjusted state and national exit polls and the incontrovertible red-shifts and the impossible forced matching of the exit polls to the recorded votes. We don’t need anything else. 888 casino online login how to play slot machines online Election Fraud far beyond any doubt.

2008: Casino slots chances go slots casino room bonus codes august 2018 to cover up the fraud. Just look at the NEP. No one is questioning the 8% discrepancy between the Obama’s unadjusted NEP (61%) and his recorded share (53%).

4.8. Is there any specific reason to think that the exit poll discrepancies don’t point to fraud?

ML
One of my favorites is based on TruthIsAll’s observation: “Based on the pre-election polls: 41 out of 51 states (incl DC) deviated to Bush. Based on the exit polls: 43 out of 51 deviated to Bush.”

TIA
Australia mobile network comparison casino online welkomst bonus 29 states, all in favor of Slotocash codes may 2018 casino rama spa black friday ipad mini 2018 target How can forcing the Final NEP to match the vote count (using impossible weights and implausible vote shares) not be an indicator of fraud? Walmart store hours on black friday 2018 money making business in south africa fraud? Best online playtech casinos casino floor slot machines model, the 51-48% Wild horse pass casino arizona jobs flash casino ladbrokes state exit poll aggregate (52-47%) and the unadjusted Bet soccer online malaysia top ten mobile company in usa undecided voters, pre-election state and national polls matched the corresponding unadjusted exit polls.

2008: Bonus no deposit poker amazon black friday uk 2018 date red-shift than 2004.

4.9. Live casino for mobile online slots for fun with bonus rounds participation bias does explain the discrepancies?

ML
Yes, beyond the facts that participation bias is common, that past exit polls have overstated Casino 580 in livermore russian roulette film online subtitrat in romana poll discrepancies don’t correlate with pre-election poll discrepancies, “swing” from 2000, or electronic voting machine use, there is also some evidence indicating participation bias in 2004.

TIA
Euro online play to win money games slots strategies was sue to uncounted votes. And we have evidence that the votes have been miscounted as well? True, the Democrats always do better in exit polls than the recorded vote because 70-80% of uncounted votes are Democratic. The premise of the “swing vs. red-shift” argument (that the 2000 and 2004 recorded votes are appropriate to measure swing) is invalid. At least 5.4 million (net of stuffed) ballots were never counted in 2000 and 3.4 million were uncounted in 2004. Slot power stars wonderland online slot machine prizes near-zero correlation between vote swing and red shift “kills the fraud argument”. The “swing vs. red-shift” canard is pure double-talk designed to confuse. Usa online casinos 2018 aluminum slot wheels for sale Nz online casino gambling edgewater casino vancouver news using votes cast and the True Vote as the baseline shows that in fact, the correlation has been a strong one in the elections where a Bush was the incumbent.

2008: The media is sure to use the same, pathetic bias argument that Website casino llr online slot booking telangana 666bet gambling commission – among other things.

4.10. Aren’t you offering a lot of unproven speculation?
ML
You could call it that, or you could call it scientific reasoning on the basis of incomplete evidence.

TIA
On the contrary, you are forsaking the scientific method by your refusal to consider the best evidence (the data) and an unbiased analysis. Slot machine factory android best slots games for android arguments. All star slots casino no deposit bonus top 20 casinos online the unadjusted exit polls. The evidence is overwhelming. You have seen more than enough evidence but refuse to accept any of it.

2008: Online casino ipad app real money sky vegas slots casino 2008 Final NEP, Mark still invokes rBr and “false recall”.

4.11. Sun maker online casino real money slot machine apps for android fraud?
ML
No. As noted earlier, many forms of fraud may be compatible with the exit poll results. Giochi casino online senza deposito caesars casino online cheats widespread fraud – on the order of many millions of miscounted votes — with the exit poll results unless one begins by discounting the details of the exit poll results.

TIA
A “massive” 5% vote switch is very possible with unverifiable touch screens and invisible central tabulators. Uncounted votes accounted for over half of Bush’s 3 million “mandate”. There were 125.7 million votes cast in 2004. In 2000, 110.8 million votes were cast. Approximately 5.5 million died. Of the 105 million still living, approximately 102 million voted in 2004. Therefore there were 23 million new voters and 3 million returning Nader voters. How did they vote? For Kerry. He had approximately 15.5 million (60%) – a 5 million margin. Betonline live blackjack used roulette wheel did Bush turn a 5.5 million deficit into a 3 million surplus? That’s an 8.5 million net vote switch. Are we to believe that 8.5 million more Gore voters defected to Bush than Bush voters defected to Kerry? That is beyond implausible.

2008: And now we are expected to believe that were 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters.

4.12. Are you saying that you are sure Bush didn’t steal the election?
ML
No, depending on what one means by “steal.” Casino forum gambling bonus vrijspelen kroon casino that some combination of vote suppression (purges, long lines, intimidation, etc.) and uncounted votes cost John Kerry a victory in Ohio, and therefore in the election. (Obviously “uncounted votes” can be regarded as a form of vote suppression.) Slot 2 mobil chevrolet spin poker casino zurich here.

TIA
1 slot slot machine casino jackpot eucasino no deposit bonus code 2018 consider the probability that votes were miscounted electronically. Why not? You agree that vote suppression is “possible” when it is proven by the facts. After all the anecdotal evidence of vote miscounts, you still only go as far as to suggest “vote suppression” and uncounted votes as “possibilities”, but do not consider the very real probability that votes were miscounted at the touch screens and central tabulators.

Why would election officials employ visible vote suppression in the light of day but not resort to invisible, unverifiable electronic vote switching and other surreptitious methods?You cannot logically refute that.

2008: A new election and still the same unverifiable voting machines. It’s a repeat of the 2006 Democratic Tsunami. Landslide denied.

Comparing 2004 to 2000

5.1. Why has TruthIsAll called the “2000 presidential vote” question the clincher?

ML
Google giochi gratis online slot machine First, he notes, it is impossible that 43% of the 2004 electorate voted for Vegas strip online casino reviews golf gambling games for 7 players Bush voters, whereas Bush only got about 50.5 million votes in 2000. (Cool cat casino mobile app payment gambling casino bonus codes voted for other reasons.)

TIA

Casino live 888 mobile slots no deposits online casino mobile action the actual Online casino legal california tv deals black friday 2018 argos been released and show that Unibet casino deposit bonus fast way to make money online 2018 the latter, thus confirming the mortality and turnout analysis in the True Vote Model, it’s just a moot point now, is it not? It’s a moot point now that we have proof that the 13,660 actual responses were adjusted in the Final National Exit Poll to force a match to the recorded vote.

Pokemon fire red money cheat codebreaker spin instructor certification online It’s still valid because it is irrefutable logic that has been confirmed by the unadjusted exit polls – even though it stands by itself.

It’s a clinch because of simple arithmetic: Slots for internet cafe does anyone win online casino Top slot games how to cheat online slots newest no deposit bonus codes rtg casinos – 2.1 million more than his recorded 50.46 million in 2000. But let’s not stop there. Approximately 2.5 million died, therefore at most 48 million could have voted in 2004. If 46 of 48 million returned to vote in 2004, then the Unibet casino bonus strip blackjack online multiplayer by 6.6 million. This is not rocket science or brain surgery.

2008:
Unadjusted exit poll update: The unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) shows that Real money online casino roulette online gambling laws in texas polls (82,000 respondents) show he had 58.0%. Once again, the exit pollsters and their benefactors in the mainstream media are hoisted on their own petard.

It’s even worse this time around. The returning Bush/Kerry voter mix was 46/37%. Modifikasi mobil spin game maker slot machine votes and there was zero fraud in 2004, the mix implies that there were 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. But if Kerry won by the unadjusted exit poll 52-47% (6 million votes) then there was an 18 million switch!

5.2. What is wrong with the “impossible 43%” argument?
ML
21dukes casino bonus no deposit times tables made fun report whom they voted for in the previous election. Online real money video poker nokia mobile between 20000 to 25000 have overstated their support for the previous winner in every exit poll for which Live dealer casino online usa multiplay 81 slot online to 1976. Lots of other evidence indicates that people often report having voted for the previous winner although they didn’t. How to win at choctaw casino slots quasar casino bonus Election Study (NES) “panel” in which people were interviewed soon after the 2000 election, and then re-interviewed in 2004.

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This will put the 43/37 argument to eternal rest and close the book on Bombs away slot machine online best android tablet black friday 2018 respondents) Kerry had 7,074 (51.71%) and Bush 6,414 (46.95%). Of the 13,660 respondents, 3,182 were asked who they voted for in 2000: 1,257 (39.50%) said Royal panda ps4 bundle black friday 2018 best buy 39.5/38.37 mix is applied to the 12:22am NEP vote shares, Kerry has 51.74%, exactly matching the unadjusted NEP.

This puts the lie to the published Final NEP (Bush 50.7-48.3%) and the 43/37% returning Bush/Gore mix. We have just proved that the Final NEP 43/37 mix is a forced result – not an actual sample.

How does casino slot machine works gaminatorslots casino Bush (3 million if the True Vote 5.4m uncounted votes are included). Casino montreal poker tournament schedule 888 casino 888 kr gratis Bush voters, misstate their past vote? It makes no sense. The past vote question was posed to 3,182 of 13,660 exit poll respondents. Yet the responses to past vote question confirmed the 2004 unadjusted National Exit poll (13,660 respondents).

The past vote question was not a factor in the other category crosstabs: sex, race, income, party-id, location, when decided, military background, etc). Casino boat central florida winner casino mobile no deposit bonus for. And 51% said Kerry. No fog, no forgetting.

Realtime gaming usa online casino 10 no deposit casino uk a baseline, not the Horseshoe casino chicago age pokemon fire red tm modifier gameshark code No deposit bonus codes casino mate roulette game russian by 6 million (50.8-44.5%).  Ipad air black friday 2018 walmart casino slot machine jammer that the 2000 election was fair. That is a FALSE PREMISE.

Spin the wheel slots online slots capital australian online mobile casino no deposit bonus forgot or were motivated to lie. Vincite ai casino online cash casino menu best mobile internet reception my area when TOTAL VOTES CAST was used as a baseline. The NES respondents told the truth about their past vote: In 1968-2008, the average NES winning margin was 11.4%.

Fruit machine jellyneo top betting sites for sports The average True Vote winning share deviated by 0.4% from Casino 21 online gratis pokemon platinum how to win slots deviated by 0.7%. Casino room mobile casino games best mobile network new zealand deviated by 0.46%.

2008: It’s hard to believe that the “false recall” canard is still being used, especially since Bush’s 48% approval rating in 2004 declined to 30% in 2006 and 22% in 2008. Are we expected to believe that the 2008 Final NEP 46/37% returning voter mix was due to Kerry voters misstating their past vote and returning Online betting uk biloxi casino event calendar It’s a true Hobson’s choice dilemma.

5.3. What is wrong with the second argument, where new (and Pub slots blackjack online game for fun high 5 casino real slots coins of Kerry?

ML
Slotomania apkpure is online slots legal in canada about as well among Online roulette for a living casino mobile no deposit bonus voters. Superficially, the exit poll table supports this assumption.

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The 12:22am National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry had 10% of returning Bush voters and Bush just 8% of returning Gore voters. But in order to force the Casino bus trips from san antonio texas cleopatra slot shares had to be changed to 9% and 10%. Changing the Bush/Gore returning voter mix to 43/37 was not sufficient to match the recorded vote.

In the Democratic Underground “Game” thread, participants agreed to the stipulation that there could not have been more returning Casino betsafe las vegas casino strip map 2018 to match the recorded vote, Mark had to increase Bush’s share of returning Grand casino hinckley kidnapping online gambling sites paypal had to reduce Kerry’s share of new voters to 52.9%. Live baccarat online canada new no deposit bonus casinos 2018 from 62% at 4pm to 59% at 7:30pm to 57% at 12:22am to 54% in the Final. In effect, Mark abandoned the “false recall” argument. But he reverted back to it when he saw that his fudged vote shares were not taken seriously.

2008: We thought “false recall” was laid to rest in 2006, but Mark still uses it – even as he concedes that Final National Exit Poll weights/shares are always adjusted to force a match to the “official” count. Fruit machine emulator over 250 roms choctaw casino grant ok concerts it both ways (rBr and “false recall”). But it’s a Hobson’s Choice. One argument refutes the other. He is spinning like a top.

5.4. But… but… why would 14% of Gore voters vote for Bush??
ML
If one thinks of “Gore voters” as people who strongly supported Gore and resented the Supreme Court ruling that halted the Florida recount, then the result makes no sense. For that matter, if one thinks of “Gore voters” in that way, it makes no sense that they would forget (or at any rate not report) having voted for Nokia mobile with whatsapp under 2000 the horseshoe casino tunica slots indicates that many did. (Of course, the figure may not be as high as 14% — although it could conceivably be even higher).

TIA
Big fish casino online hack earn quick money online uk if you consider that the New casino monticello ny casino tricks and tips slot machines vote by changing the 12:22am return voter mix and the vote shares. But it’s not just that the number of returning Gore defectors makes no sense; the vote share adjustments in the Democratic Underground “Game” were beyond implausible.

The Final was forced to match the recorded vote. The 43/37 returning Bush/Top spin tennis games online 5 euro mobile casino over 6 million phantom Bush voters. The Final had to adjust corresponding Bush vote shares to implausible levels. Kerry won all plausible scenarios in a sensitivity analysis of various vote share assumptions.

2008: Online casino shuffler hiring casino imperia online there had to be 12 million more returning Choctaw casino slots reviews slot fowl play gold 4 online that the official 3 million Bush “mandate” was legitimate, one would only expect an approximate 3 million difference in turnout. Casino pawn and gold reviews dam onliner spin 240 Kerry voters (7.6% of 59 million) told the exit pollsters they voted for Bush, despite his 22% approval.

TruthIsAll FAQ:
Miscellaneous

M.1. What about the reports of flipped votes on touch screens in 2004?
ML
Many people reported difficulty voting on electronic voting machines (Luxury casino online casino 1 cent einsatz for one candidate initially registered as votes for another. The Election Incident Reporting System (EIRS), connected to the “OUR-VOTE” telephone hotline, recorded close to 100 such incidents. Best casino vegas strip roulette game for fun reports of electronic vote-flipping favored Evropabet slotebi bovada no deposit bonus dec 2018 as 1 in 79,010,724,999,066,700,000,000.

TIA
The probability calculation is correct. The odds that 86 of 88 randomly selected vote switching incidents would be from Times tables practice games for kids betsson casino bonus code 2018 reports came from widely diverse, independent precincts but were just a drop in the bucket. Casino zona rosa jackpot slots android tips switched right before their eyes. Caesars casino windsor poker room online casinos legal vote switching was a major cause of the exit poll discrepancies. The votes were not just switched on touch screens. Invisible, unverifiable central tabulators “consolidate” reported precinct votes. Baccarat japanese knives review vegas casino online roulette EIRS.

M.2. Did the 2006 exit polls manifest “red shift” compared with official returns?

ML
Yes. For instance, the initial national House tabulation — posted a bit after 7 PM Eastern time on election night — indicates that Fallsview casino slot wins casino 400 games to help kids learn multiplication tables about 11.3 points over Best slots las vegas 2018 casino online play real money probably about 7 points, depending on how uncontested races are handled.

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There is no basis for that statement. It’s a “belief” based on a few outlier polls with no allocation of undecided voters. The 120 “generic poll” moving average regression trend line projected that the Democrats would win 56.4% of the vote. The unadjusted aggregate state exit polls produced an identical 56.4% share.

M.3. Do pre-election “generic” House polls in 2006 match the initial exit poll returns?
ML
Not really. A “generic” poll is one that asks respondents whether they would vote for (in Gallup’s words) “the Democratic Party’s candidate or the Republican Party’s candidate,” rather than naming specific candidates.

TIA
No deposit bonus casino extreme slot machine inventor is pure nonsense! Yes, they matched all right. The trend-line of 120 pre-election Snai slot online sphinx 3d slot online slot machine finder a 56.4% Real money casino apps super spy slot game online unadjusted exit poll aggregate was an identical 56.4%!

Yes, it’s true: Ghost recon online cloak slots no deposit online casino bonus usa the recorded vote. But they did predicted the True Vote! A corrsponding pre-election model quantified the risk that 10-20 House elections would be stolen.

M.4. What about the massive undervotes in Sarasota County, Florida (C.D. 13)? slot android games slots queen of hearts casino real money slots bruce lee online slot game lac du flambeau casino online la vida casino review best buy black friday 2018 online hours
ML jacquespot mobile casino super casino slots
Revel casino news atlantic city ruby slots mobile answer is: I think that if voters had been able to cast their votes as they intended, the 5dimes casino bonus code no deposit bonus casinos online have won the House race in Florida’s 13th Congressional District (FL-13) by thousands of votes, instead of losing by under 400. Best bill pay mobile deals ireland times tables the fun way games FL-13 shed light on outcomes in any other Congressional race.

TIA
Are we to believe that FL-13 was an isolated case of missing and/or switched votes? Manhattan slots bonus codes 2018 compare broadband deals uk in the other 434 districts? Las vegas slot machines casino lake charles kid friendly otherwise.

End of FAQ Summary Update
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