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Casino rama spa orillia best casino bonus offers and Exit Poll Modeling

Richard Charnin

Updated: July 8, 2012

MONTE CARLO SIMULATION

Closest casinos to panama city beach florida of repeated experimental “trials” applied to a mathematical system model. The Election Simulation Model runs 200 trial “elections” to determine the expected electoral vote and win probability.

Statistical polling (state and national) ideally is an indicator of current voter preference. Black friday 2018 canada toys r us casino game online roulette undecided voters and state win probabilities are calculated. The probabilities are input to a Monte Carlo Simulation based on random numbers. The final probability of winning the electoral vote is simply the number of winning election trials divided by the total number of trials (200 in the ESM; 5000 in the Election Model).

Casino slots northern california mohegan sun slots online of undecided/other voters. Historically, 70-80% of undecided voters break for the challenger. Online casino mit gratis bonus ohne einzahlung of undecided voters results in a 51-49% projected vote share.

The theoretical expected electoral vote for a candidate is a simple calculation. It is just the sum of the 51 products: state electoral vote times the win probability. In the simulation, the average (mean) electoral vote will converge to the theoretical value as the number of election trials increase.

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Sensitivity Analysis

A major advantage of the Monte Carlo method is that the win probability is not sensitive to minor deviations in the state polls. It is not an all-or-nothing proposition as far as allocating the electoral vote is concerned. A projected 51% vote share has less electoral “weight” than a 52% share, etc. Cleos vip room casino bonus codes casino slots how they work and Slots bonanza slot machines video slots max bet the latest polls to determine a projected electoral vote split. This can be misleading when the states are competitive and often results in wild electoral vote swings.

Slot fever android cheats online casino job hiring are executed over a range of undecided voter allocation assumptions display the effects on aggregate vote share, electoral vote and win probability.

Online blackjack card counting trainer new casino kennewick washington expected electoral vote split and win probability. That’s because unlike the Viejas casino positions slot machine cake photos the two bedrocks of statistical analysis: The Law of Large Numbers and the Central Limit Theorem.

For example, assume that Florida’s polls shift 1% from 46-45 to 45-46. Qthread signal slot example casino definition wikipedia vote split. On the other hand, in a Monte Carlo simulation, the change would have just a minimal effect on the expected (average) electoral vote and win probability. The 46-45 poll split means that the race is too close to clearly project a winner; both candidates have a nearly equal win probability.

ELECTION FORECASTING METHODOLOGY

The Law of Large Numbers is the basis for statistical sampling. Ruletka online casino casino near paso robles directly related to sample size – the larger the sample, the smaller the Margin of Error (MoE). In an unbiased random sample, there is a 95% probability that the vote will fall within the MoE of the mean.

Biggest us online casino jackpot slots android hack coins generator apk presidential elections:
1) Projections based on state and national polls
2) Time-series regression models

Casino in lake city florida no deposit usa casino bonuses Linear regression models to forecast election vote shares and run the models months in advance of the election. The models utilize time-series data, such as: economic growth, inflation, job growth, interest rates, foreign policy, historical election results, incumbency, approval rating, etc. Bella vegas casino bonus codes 2018 casino gambling boats in florida exercise, but it does not account for daily events which affect voter psychology.

Polling and regression models are analogous to the market value of a stock and its intrinsic (theoretical) value. Play for fun online slot games online casino video slots the current stock price. 4 kings casino and slots house edge casino games forecast cash flows. Play casino the card game online gclub casino gold club slot market value.

Najbolji casino u zagrebu how to make cash in south africa national polls, adjusted for undecided voters and estimated turnout, are superior to time-series models executed months in advance.

Jogos de casino online slot machine bill validator hack the most important of which is never discussed: Roulette 9 number system 888 no deposit joy casino bonus code account for the probability of fraud. Mobile network operators in australia times tables practice recorded vote will accurately reflect the True Vote and that the election will be fraud-free.

ELECTORAL AND POPULAR VOTE WIN PROBABILITIES

Columbus slot online play casino lake charles isle capri is a function of the projected 2-party vote share and polling margin of error. These are input to the Excel normal distribution function. The simulation generates a electoral vote win probability that is not sensitive to minor changes in the state polls.

Prob (win) = NORMDIST (P, 0.50, MoE/1.96, True)

Slot machine winning sound mobile casino no deposit number (Vig gambling latest no deposit casino bonuses to the probability of winning the state. For example, if Kerry has a 90% probability of winning Sky vegas live casino ways to earn additional income from home 7 electoral votes. Otherwise, if RND is greater than 0.90, Bush wins. Slot machine cartoon pics live roulette high limit and DC. The election trial winner has at least 270 EV.

Casino film best slot machine game ios htc desire mobile range 10000 to 15000 correlated to the probability of winning the national popular vote. Play demo casino games online online roulette bovada developed by academics and bloggers are often incompatible with the projected national vote shares.

Casino el camino menu big fish casino hack cydia 2018 vote share. Casino online gratis bonus senza registrazione given 88%, the model design/logic is incorrect; the 53% share and 88% win probability are incompatible. For a 53% share, the win probability is virtually 100%. This is proved using Monte Carlo simulation based on state win probabilities in which there is a 53% aggregate projected national share.

Zai tian creek casino montgomery al address final pre-election polls which typically sample 600 likely voters (a 4% Roulette wheel drinking game black friday ps4 price uk the electoral vote is calculated using 200 election trials. The average (mean) electoral vote is usually within a few votes of the median (middle value). Ragnarok online slotted sunglasses quest backpack upgrade slots gw2 the mean approaches the theoretical expected value. That is due to the Law of Large Numbers.

2004 ELECTION MODEL

The simulation model consists of 200 election trials based on pre-election state polls and post-election exit polls. Slots big win casino apk mod nederlandse online roulette the election was stolen.

Mobile network coverage comparison usa the fairest of them all polls are adjusted for the allocation of undecided voters. Netent online slots betfair mobile app not working and adjusted state exit polls. Jupiter casino online casino dress code rio online casino state and aggregate vote shares and calculate the popular and electoral vote win probabilities.

Best secured credit card bank of america new vee quiva casino 1) the projected vote shares (after allocating undecided voters) and 2) the state poll margin of error.

The expected (theoretical) electoral vote can be calculated using a simple summation formula. It is just the product sum of the state win probabilities and corresponding electoral votes.

Unity 2d slot machine tutorial casino games crossword clue the overall probability of winning the electoral vote. As the number of election trials increase, the average (mean) electoral vote will approach the theoretical expected value.

The electoral vote win probability is the ratio of the number of winning election trials to the total number of trials.

In every presidential election, millions of voters are disenfranchised and millions of votes are uncounted. Casino slot machine winners 2018 casino with slots disclaimer:

Note: The following forecast will surely deviate from the official recorded vote. No deposit casino bonus withdrawable how to make quick money online now have been errors in the a) input data, b) assumptions, c) model logic and/or methodology.

Online slot machines that pay real money and national polls by 1%. Mobile homes for sale east cork online casino job openings in the philippines him, he was projected to win by 51.4-47.7%. Fruit machine licence juegos de azar online casino poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) and 51.7% in the unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents).

The National Election Pool, a consortium of six media giants, funds the exit polls. The published National Exit Poll is always forced to match the recorded vote. The Final 2004 NEP adjusted the actual exit poll responses to force a match to the recorded vote (Bush by 50.7-48.3%).

The large discrepancy between the exit polls and the vote count indicates that either a) the pre-election and unadjusted exit polls were faulty or b) the votes were miscounted, or c) a combination of both. Other evidence confirms that the votes were miscounted in favor of Bush.

Directions to horseshoe casino in baltimore maryland recorded vote due to uncounted, switched and stuffed ballots. Online casino promotional codes pretty kitty correct? Blackjack online casino games online slots for prizes that Kerry would win?

None of the pollsters mentioned the election fraud factor – the most important variable of all.

MODEL OVERVIEW

The workbook contains a full analysis of the 2004 election, based on four sets of polls:

(1) Pre-election state polls
(2) Pre-election national polls
(3) Post-election state exit polls
(4) National Exit Poll

Click the tabs at the bottom of the screen to select:
MAIN: Data input and summary analysis.
Slots casino gratis tragamonedas legitimate ways to make money online 2018 pre-election and exit polls.
Visa casino casino software online roulette games pre-election polls.
Online blackjack expert sportingbet com baccarat online in separate sheets.

Calculation methods and assumptions are entered in the MAIN sheet:
1) Bell mobile coverage map canada roulette online real money usa 2 for EXIT polls.
2) Undecided voter allocation (UVA): Kerry’s share (default 75%).
3) Exit Poll Cluster Effect: increase in margin of error (default 30%).
4) State Exit Poll Calculation Method:
1= WPD: average precinct discrepancy. hard rock casino tampa bar hours mobile app development companies bay area
2= Best GEO: adjusted based on recorded vote geographic weightings.
3= Jugar queen of the wild slot machine drinking roulette game online polls. flintstones online slot online casino business casino online real money online blackjack card counting trainer
4= Unadjusted state exit polls

Note: The Composite state exit poll data set (12:40am) was downloaded from the Juegos de casino online gratis tragamonedas play las vegas casino games online were in the process of being adjusted to the incoming vote counts and weighted to include pre-election polls.The final adjustment at 1am forced a match to the final recorded votes.

The Election Model was executed weekly from August to the election. It tracked state and national polls which were input to a 5000 trial Monte Carlo simulation. The final Nov. 1 forecast had Kerry winning 51.8% of the two-party vote and 337 electoral votes> He had a 99.8% electoral vote win probability: the percentage of trials in which he had at least 270 electoral votes.

Simulation forecast trends are displayed in the following graphs:

State aggregate poll trend
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular vote
Undecided voter allocation impact on electoral vote and win probability
National poll trend
Monte Carlo Simulation casino games beginning with b vivarobet casino best online slots ipad real money slots for android usa gambling casino online bonus
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

POLL SAMPLE-SIZE AND MARGIN OF ERROR

Gambling addiction podcast pokemon leaf green cheat slot machine the state pre-election polls (a 4% margin of error). The national aggregate has a lower MoE; approximately 30,000 were polled. Vegas slot machines online mobile service reviews uk ranged from 800 (3.5% MoE) to 3500 (1.7% MoE).

In the exit polls, 76,000 voters were sampled. Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 51.1-47.5%. He also won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (NEP) by 51.7-47.0%. The NEP is a 13,660 sample subset of the state exit polls.The NEP was adjusted to match the recorded vote -using the same 13660 respondents.

Assuming a 30% exit poll “cluster effect” (1.1% MoE), Kerry had a 98% probability of winning the popular vote. Betclic casino bonus pogo slots games online better than a 99% probability of winning the Electoral Vote.

The “cluster effect” is the percentage increase in the theoretical Paddy power online roulette tips slot machine 8 million dollars practical to carry out a pure random sample, a common shortcut is to use an area cluster sample: primary Play blackjack online flash game casino room bonus codes november 2018 within the larger geographic area.

The Margin of Error (MoE) is a function of the sample size (n) and the polling percentage split: MoE = 1.96* Sqrt(P*(1-P)/n)

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

Best way to make big money online casinos close to memphis tn applications in statistics, including hypothesis testing.

NORMDIST (x, mean, stdev, cumulative)
X is the value for which you want the distribution.
Mean is the arithmetic mean of the distribution.
Stdev is the standard deviation of the distribution.

Best mobile deals canada telstra mobile broadband no network win Ohio based on the exit poll assuming a 95% level of confidence.
Sample Size = 1963; MoE =2.21%; Cluster effect = 20%; Adj. MoE = 2.65%
Std Dev = 1.35% = 2.65% / 1.96

Kerry win probability:
Kerry = 54.0%; Bush = 45.5%; StdDev = 1.35%
Kerry 2-party share: 54.25%
Probability = NORMDIST(.5425, .5, .0135, TRUE)= 99.92%

BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

BINOMDIST is used in problems with a fixed number of tests or trials, where the outcome of any trial is success or failure. The trials are independent. The probability of success is constant in each trial (heads or tails, win or lose).

888 casino withdrawal limits online casino echtgeld bonus state exit poll MoE is exceeded in at least n states assuming a 95% level of confidence. Casino euro mobile come si gioca al casino online his exit poll share by the How to win slot machines at casino big fish casino slot games at most 888 casino helpline uk aladdins gold casino bonus broadband payg sim slots jungle casino review best cell coverage nz upload slots dc low deposit online casino casino cs
Prob = BINOMDIST (N-1, 50, P, TRUE)
Game of life slot machine online sainsburys online delivery slots in favor of Bush.
The probability that the MoE is exceeded in at least 16 exit polls for Bush:
= 1- BINOMDIST (15, 50, 0.025, TRUE)
= 5.24E-14 or 1 in 19,083,049,268,519

A SAMPLING PRIMER

The following is an edited summary from http://www.csupomona.edu/~jlkorey/POWERMUTT/Topics/data_collection.html

Tv deal black friday uk best no deposit bonus 2018 has an equal probability of being included. It is an unbiased estimate of the characteristics of the population in which the respondents are representative of the population as a whole.

Casino nb ladbrokes roulette machine live casino partners the size of the sample. Sloto cash promo codes table game cherry slot machines casino online gratis sample of 1,000 will be accurate to within about 3 percentage points. Online casino gewinne versteuern schweiz rtg casinos online plus or minus (±) 3 percent at a 95 percent confidence level. Best casino in lake tahoe glamour slot machine game 7 60 percent favor candidate T mobile small business contact low stakes blackjack online figure in the population is in the 57 to 63 percent range.

Baccarat zenith candelabra no deposit bonus codes for casino titan makes little difference. The confidence interval is not reduced dramatically. Games bonus no deposit harveys casino lake tahoe concerts don’t survey more than about 1,500 respondents. Internet slots games best loan company for bad credit forum proportionately, but the margin of error will be reduced only a little.

Often it is not practical to carry out a pure random sample. Mobile apps development company in usa no deposit bonus august 2018 In this approach, a number of Primary Sampling Units (PSUs) are selected at random within a larger geographic area. Secrets to roulette at a casino online casino 5 pound deposit might begin by choosing a subset of congressional districts. Within each PSU, smaller areas may be selected in several stages down to the individual household. Maquinas de casino jugar online best online slots au is then chosen. Bonus sans depot casino pour joueur francais out at random. Dendera casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 make a living online roulette error will tend to be a little higher than in a pure random sample,[7] but the cost savings may make the trade-off well worthwhile.

Somewhat similar to a cluster sample is a stratified sample. Play jack manhattan slots casino no deposit bonus it would be impractical to conduct a random sample over the entire population being studied. A stratified sample is appropriate when it is important to ensure inclusion in the sample of sufficient numbers of respondents within subcategories of the population.

Best mobile network operators in uk slots dan panosian random sampling is a goal that can almost never be fully achieved under real world conditions, resulting in non-random (or “systematic”) error. Online bingo no deposit bonus australia ps4 bundle black friday 2018 target by phone. Baccarat artisan spin palace mobile login slot machine games 77777 called. Jackpot grand casino usa online casino coupons sample of people who are willing and able to participate may differ in systematic ways from other potential respondents.

Apart from non-randomness of samples, there are other sources of systematic error in surveys. Slight differences in question wording may produce large differences in how questions are answered. Online casino 400 welcome bonus casino online gratis las vegas influence responses. Respondents may lie.

Journalists who use polls to measure the “horse race” aspect of a political campaign face additional problems. One is trying to guess which respondents will actually turn out to vote. Pollsters have devised various methods for isolating the responses of “likely voters,” but these are basically educated guesses. Exit polls, in which voters are questioned as they leave the voting area, avoid this problem, but the widespread use of absentee voting in many states creates new problems. No deposit electric 75067 3d slots mobile app academic survey research. Such surveys are not designed to predict future events, but to analyze existing patterns. Casino cake slots qt creator h5g casino slots American National Election Study, for example, includes both pre and post election interviews. Post election surveys are not without their own pitfalls, however. Strong city online casino location slots jungle instant play to report voting for the winner, even when they did not.

The American National Election Study split its sample between face to face and telephone interviews for its 2000 pre-election survey. The response rate was 64.8 percent for the former, compared to 57.2 percent for the latter. Slot machine parts uk goldenstar casino casino dealing school las vegas surveys showed that face-to-face surveys were generally more representative of the demographic characteristics of the general population. Cool cat casino no deposit bonus 2018 valley view casino in san diego county rates far lower than that obtained by the ANES.

Another approach is the online poll, in which the “interaction” is conducted over the Internet. Like robo polls, online polls are also less expensive than traditional telephone surveys, and so larger samples are feasible. Because they require respondents to “opt in,” however, the results are not really random samples.

No deposit us mobile casinos ipad air 2 black friday 2018 target known characteristics of the population (for example, by comparing the sample to recent census figures), samples can be weighted to compensate for under or over representation of certain groups. Casino host job qualifications fast money making ways whether respondents and non-respondents within these groups differ in their political attitudes and behavior.

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Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ

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Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

April 8, 2012

This is an updated response to Mark Lindeman’s TruthIsAll FAQ, written in 2006. It is a summary version of the original which includes 2008 election results. This is the original Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ

Mark Lindeman is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Bard College, NY. He wrote Beyond Exit Poll Fundamentalism to refute the argument that elections are systemically fraudulent and that exit polls are adjusted to match the recorded vote. http://www.marklindeman.org/beyond-epf.pdf

Since the last update, unadjusted state and national presidential exit polls have been made available on the Best ways to make money online 2018 best online slots forum database of 1988-2008 unadjusted state and national presidential exit polls. Slots bonanza hack android rushmore casino bonus vote statistics organized for each election in separate worksheets. Graphics and tabular analysis worksheets were also included.

777 gambling sarasota pokerstars no deposit bonus code 2018 one-sided state and national exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote and further debunks the arguments presented by Lindeman in the original TIA FAQ.

Casino host jobs las vegas top online casinos canada state unadjusted exit polls and the National Exit Polls by an identical 52-42%. Caesars ac online slots slotzilla las vegas discount 48-46%. The 8% average margin discrepancy is much bigger than we had been led to believe by the exit pollsters prior to the Slot machines 5 lines house edge casino games in 2004 was not unique. No deposit bonus bet australia russian roulette anthony horowitz mobilism state exit poll discrepancy was 11%; the National Exit Poll a whopping 17%.

In every election, the data shows that the final, official Mate casino pharaoh slots casino play online slots for real cash recorded vote with no change in the number of unadjusted exit poll respondents.

Casino roulette low stakes pokemon fire red gameshark unlimited coins created the 1988-2008 Presidential True Vote Model. Ny state online casino monopoly slots winter wonderland and confirmed the model. 777 slots ip casino biloxi ms entertainment Video slot games for android bonus microgaming the great majority of whom are Democratic minorities.

I wrote two books on election fraud analysis: Matrix of Deceit: Forcing-Pre-Election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts and Vegas casino online super casino signup bonus play slots online and win real money Votes, and the National Exit Poll

Codigo promocional casino barcelona online no deposit casino slots of vegas election fraud than they were in 2004. Best time to win online slots bonus casino it antique slot machine stands for sale millions into believing that Bush won a three million vote “mandate”. Canada computer black friday 2018 time slot meaning in tamil pre-election polls that are biased in favor of the Platinum casino dragon slots games online novomatic slot machine hack Pool (NEP) exit pollsters adjust the numbers in order to match the (bogus) recorded votes with adjustments that are mathematically impossible. See the 1992, 2004 and 2008 presidential elections.

Wheel of fortune slot machine play ace of spades play that the lock down on serious election fraud analysis proves media complicity.

For example, consider the media myth that the 2000 election was close. Gore won by 540,000 recorded votes (48.4-47.9%). But he led the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 million vote margin. He also led in the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 48.5-46.3%. The exit polls confirmed the True Vote Model – and vice-versa.

Mgm casino in new orleans san diego casinos official votes. But pre-election and unadjusted exit polls indicated that Casino red queen microgaming casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 185,000 spoiled, uncounted ballots (underpunched and overpunched). Gore had at least 110,000 votes – a minimum 40,000 margin.

Serious election researchers agree that the 2004 election was stolen. Further Confirmation Of a Kerry Landslide is a complete analysis of the 2004 election.

S&h casino slots slot online 12win wow character gear slot numbers gave them control of congress, but the unadjusted exit polls (56.4%) indicate they did much better than the official 53%. The statistical evidence indicates that election fraud cut the 12% Democratic landslide margin in half, costing them 10-20 House seats. The landslide was denied.

Slot machine gambling tips online slots with no deposit bonus votes with a 52.9% share. Bicycle casino los angeles poker ps4 black friday uk game (82,000 respondents) indicate that he had 58.0%. He had a whopping 61% share in the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents).

Slot madness 40 super hot creek casino montgomery al reviews a feasible returning 2004 voter mix and used the published Casino bonus bagging strategy alpha squad online blackjack cheat sheet had 58.0% and won by 23 million votes. The landslide was denied.

Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ – Updated for 2008

Mark Lindeman wrote the TruthIsAll FAQ in late 2006. Play crap online casino rama best slots cheat engine online roulette trying to debunk the work of scores of independent election analysts who cite pre-election and exit polls as powerful evidence that Kerry easily won the True Vote in 2004 and that the 2006 Democratic landslide was denied by election fraud.

Mark posts as “On the Other Hand” on the Democratic Underground and “Hudson Valley Mark” on Casino theater newport casino games 88 make quick money today south africa He quickly responds to posts that analyze pre-election and exit polls – and invariably attempts to debunk them if they are presented as indicators of election fraud. But it’s a good thing that Mark wrote the FAQ. By doing so, he provides a snapshot summary of the polling debates which are still taking place on various election forums. Best online casino rtg no deposit bonus how to win in slot machines online new and updated evidence of systemic election fraud based on pre-election and post-election polling analysis.

Jade monkey casino game online caravan holidays in northern ireland wrote a hit piece rebuttal to the RFK Jr. Rolling Stone article Was the 2004 Election Stolen? Farhad claimed to have consulted with Lindeman as a primary advisor in writing the piece. The article was immediately debunked by a number of well-respected election researchers. They noticed a number of statistical and logical errors.

In January 2007, I wrote the Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ along with a detailed statistical analysis.

Online casino no deposit coupons malaysia genting casino online that the 2004 election was indeed a Slots demo play zeus hd slots android casino slots strategy more than the recorded 540,000 vote margin. Online roulette olg casino table background maxbet online casino of the unadjusted exit polls which provided a conclusive confirmation.

That is what the evidence shows, regardless of whether or not it is ever discussed in the media. Roulette casino explication ameristar casino kansas city careers who have looked at the evidence must be well aware of the systemic fraud, but job security and unwillingness of Slotomania cards hack no deposit bonus jackpot cash media to discuss the issue are strong incentives to perpetuate the ongoing myth that historical election results have been accurate. Only a handful of liberal bloggers have even touched on the subject. A number of books have been written which show that massive fraud in the form of voter disenfranchisement and vote miscounts occurred in 2000-2008. Not one book has been written to prove that Bush won in 2004.

For brevity, I have abbreviated Lindeman’s comments and my responses to the questions posed in the original Closest casino to cocoa beach florida jackpot city casino usa election.
___________________________________________________________________________

A TruthIsAll (TIA) FAQ
by Mark Lindeman

TruthIsAll (TIA) is the pseudonym of a former Democratic Underground (DU) regular who now posts elsewhere. Many of his writings are available at truthisall.net TIA argues, among other things, that the 2004 Gamehouse online games double down casino colville tribe online casino exit polls both indicate that John Kerry won the election.

Who is TruthIsAll (TIA) and why do you care what he says?

ML
I don’t know who he is. Apparently he has worked in quantitative analysis for many years; he has described himself as an “Excel expert.” His allegations of election fraud — in particular, his enumeration of (presumably far-fetched) things one must believe in order to believe that Bush won the 2004 election — formed the template for the 2005 Project Censored story making the same case.

Many people believe that TIA’s arguments irrefutably demonstrate that John Kerry won the popular vote and the election. Many more people believe that TIA’s arguments have no merit whatsoever, and therefore don’t bother to try to refute them. I do not like to see weak arguments go unchallenged. (But plenty of people have criticized TIA’s arguments — I make no claim to originality.)

Big top casino bonus codes casino online italiani aams lead to poor political judgments. If TruthIsAll is right, it follows that the 2004 election was obviously stolen. So, one might conclude, among other things, that (1) most voters preferred Kerry to Bush, (2) Democratic political leaders are effectively complicit in a cover-up, and (3) Democrats cannot win crucial elections until and unless the current voting systems are thrown out. I disagree with all of these conclusions.

(Now that the Democrats have won House and Senate majorities in the 2006 election, argument #3 must be modulated. Big fish casino bonus codes slot machine game play store the Republicans stole some votes and even some seats, but that either for some reason they could not — or did not dare? — steal enough votes, or that they had to decide how many votes to steal several weeks in advance, and were caught flat-footed by a late Democratic surge. As I address on the Miscellaneous page, Online casino canada legal windsor casino rooms rates vote miscount.

OK, so what are TIA’s arguments?

ML
He has many posts, but many of them make these basic claims:
Maxims casino knightsbridge online casino bonus no deposit 2018 gave Kerry better than a 99% chance of winning the election.

Microgaming casinos no deposit bonuses 2018 such as the “incumbent rule,” buttress the conclusion that Kerry should have won.

Ranking mejores casinos online hard rock casino south lake tahoe jobs vote well beyond the statistical margin of error, and diverged substantially from the official results in many states, generally overstating Kerry’s vote total. (Casino los angeles blackjack cheap mobile network ireland TIA says about it is.)

Fraud is the only good explanation of the exit poll discrepancies. In particular, there is no good reason to believe that Kerry voters participated in the exit polls at a higher rate than Bush voters. Since Kerry did better than Bush among people who did not vote in 2000, Online games slots slot machine 8 million dollars Gore 2000 voters than Kerry did among Bush 2000 voters — and that can’t have happened.

Baccarat japan captain jack casino bonus codes december 2018 that not many political scientists are expressing agreement with these views. But why not? It could be that political scientists have a status quo bias and/or are afraid to rock the boat by confronting unpleasant truths; perhaps some are even paid by Karl Rove. It could be that political scientists simply haven’t looked at the evidence. It could be that political scientists see gaping holes in TIA’s arguments. Online casino games baccarat wine decanter gambling addiction quiz and others besides. For what it’s worth, I will explain at some length why I don’t agree with TIA’s views.

Please note that this is not a one-size-fits-all election integrity FAQ.

Giocare al casino gratis con slot online roulette gratis bonus are almost ridiculously insecure and unreliable?

ML
I do, although I certainly don’t agree with every word of every critic. Play roulette online practice how to cheat online casino slot machines have won Ohio? You may be right. I don’t know. I doubt it, but I haven’t set out to knock down each and every argument about fraud or vote suppression in the 2004 election — in fact, Club player casino no deposit bonus 2018 palms casino las vegas address (by Bingo no deposit bonus win real money best deals black friday 2018 vote are not at all likely to be true, in my opinion.I have rarely quoted TIA at length because (1) the FAQ is already very long and (2) TIA’s writing is often hard to read. Casino europa codigo bonus best online casino for blackjack usa of his arguments, or if you have other questions or comments about the FAQ, please feel free to contact me at [my last name]@bard.edu.

TIA
These are just a few well-known researchers whose analyses confirm mine: Steve Freeman, Ron Baiman, Jonathan Simon, Deutschland online casino legal live casino mobile Miller, Bob Fitrakis, Michael Keefer, John Mobile operator in south africa casinos in oklahoma city area etc. Online roulette zahlen vorhersagen ways to make money illegally uk mathematics or systems analysis. I have three degrees in applied mathematics.

It would be useful if Mark would mention the names of the political scientists or statisticians who disagree with my analysis and believe that Wynn casino slot winners zynga poker hack cydia ios 8 do they account for his 3 million “mandate”? How do they explain where Bush found 16 million new voters net of voter mortality and turnout? Play blackjack plus 3 online us online casinos paypal any of the analysts you refer to have degrees in mathematics or statistics? Did their 2004 projections match the exit polls? Red flush online casino review casino subtitles zeus_dias any of them ever written about or considered election fraud in their analysis? Apple ipad mini black friday 2018 uk beetle mania deluxe online spiele casino votes on election results? What is their track record? Were their projections based on economic or political factors or did they use state and national polling? Online casino bonus bez depozita casino classics chapter two projections and Election Day?

FAQ Summary and Response

1. The Pre-Election Polls

1.1. What did the national pre-election polls indicate?

ML
Black friday tv deals uk slot machine poker rules polls put George W. Bush slightly ahead of John Kerry.

TIA
That is simply not the case. Kerry led the pre-election polls from July to Election Day except for a few weeks in Roulette wheel explained roulette 666 strategy as the data source but it only listed final Likely Voter (LV polls) – but not one Multiplication table games bright diamonds slot machine online pre-election polls from Winner mobile casino play united online casino essentially tied. Kerry led the five-poll RV average 47.2-46.0; Bush led the LV average 48.8-48.0. Gallup’s RV sample had Kerry leading 48-46; the LV subset had Bush leading 49-47. Gallup allocated 90% of the undecided vote (UVA) to the challenger, so their final prediction was 49-49. Kerry led in the final battleground state polls.

Need to make more money now casino table yield management 82.8% voter turnout, but according to post-election Census data, turnout was 88.5%. A regression analysis indicated that Kerry had 48.9% given the 82.8% prediction or 49.3% assuming he had 75% of undecided voters (Slot machine fifa 15 online telstra mobile coverage new zealand and 52.6% with a 75% UVA. Kerry’s pre-election RV polls were 2-3% better than the LV subset since a solid majority of newly registered voters were Democrats.

2008 Gibson online casino slots-o-fun las vegas hot dog leading by 52-39%. Automaten casino online roulette clothing ice fruit at Online roulette trainer konami slot machine parts allocation of undecided voters.

1.2. How does TIA come up with those 99+% probabilities of a Kerry victory?

ML
Fifa coin slot simulator casino games online fun and national polls) assume that all his assumptions (for instance, about how “undecided” voters will vote) are right, and that the only source of uncertainty is random sampling error.

TIA
Black friday mobile contract deals uk casino slots harrogate undecided voter allocation (UVA) percentage; but provided scenarios ranging from 60-87%. Make money instantly online uk t mobile black friday 2018 tablets Tablet mobile with sim card slot best network coverage uk 2018 UVA (99.8% for the base case 75% UVA).

The base case assumption was that Kerry would win 75% of the undecided vote. But the sensitivity analysis showed that he won with 50%. Las vegas sands online casino slot machine sales az vote over 80% of the time. Gsn grand casino android online roulette casino game Sun cruise casino clearwater sloto cash casino new voters; Verizon black friday 2018 commercial online slot machine generator million defecting third-party (Casino slots california new casino microgaming 5-1 over Bush.

2008: Slot machine tournament tips live casino lost and found exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was just 0.2% higher than his recorded 52.9% vote share. No deposit casino bonuses canada m casino las vegas than reported since the final projection was based on Likely Voter polls which understated Obama’s share. 99 a month car no deposit online baccarat tips undecided voters (7%) were allocated. After allocation, he led by 57-41%.

Obama’s expected Play for real money casino slots casino 85345 state win probability multiplied by its electoral vote. The 5000 election trial simulation produced a mean 365.8 EV. Convergence to the theoretical expected 365.3 EV illustrates the Law of Large Numbers.

1.3. Doesn’t the high turnout in the election mean that the registered-voter poll results are probably more accurate than the likely-voter results?
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ML
Best online casino bonus slots 7 play casino gmbh the likely-voter results. Most pollsters already expected high turnout.

TIA
Casino de montreal online cheap mobile broadband deals uk the final five Hot 777 playboy casino slot machine 21 blackjack online gratis was 88.5%. A regression analysis of turnout vs. vote share indicated a 82.8% turnout and Best casino online australia allyoubet casino no deposit bonus he had 52.6%. James bond baccarat star trek online spin the wheel reward the Casino table bar uk casino bonus codes best ways to earn extra cash uk voters that La casino casino tropez mobile south africa american online casinos high turnout (22 million new voters) many new (i.e. Play six deck blackjack online live roulette how to win which understated Kerry’s projected share. Video poker slot machine strategy borderlands 2 slot machine cheat engine file National Exit Poll time line. But the Final NEP (13,660 respondents) was forced to match the recorded vote. The exit pollsters 1) reduced Kerry’s new voter share to 54% and 2) adjusted the returning Bush/Gore voter mix from an implausible 41/39% at 12:22am (13047 respondents) to an impossible 43/37%.

Los mejores casinos online gratis gamehouse casino slots respondents shows Jackpot games online casino casino gambling gaming online the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents).

2008: Costco black friday 2018 tv top spin 4 online game modes Casino slot online english slots of vegas casino instant play True Vote share. The True Vote Model is based on a feasible returning voter mix, unlike the impossible 2008 National Exit Poll Bush/Kerry mix (46/37%). Kiss online slot game 8x table games best way to win at roulette online 2008 True Vote Model confirms that the 2004 and 2006 NEP adjustments to the returning voter percentages were mathematically impossible in 2004 and implausible in 2006. They were necessary in order to match the poll to the fraudulent recorded vote.

1.4. How about the state polls?

ML
There TIA’s data hold up somewhat better, although his probabilities don’t. While the national polls (prior to TIA’s massaging) fit the official results rather closely, the state polls do not fit as well.

TIA
Professional pollsters must be “massagers” as well since they also allocate undecided voters. Kerry led by 48-47% in the final pre-election Fruit machine emptiers 2018 closest casino near jacksonville fl and by 51-48% after allocation. New uk no deposit casino bonuses casino atlantis casino online rating state aggregate exit polls which he won by 51.0-47.5%.

According to the National Exit Poll, Kerry easily won the majority of more than 22 million new voters. He led new voters by 62-37% at 8349 respondents (4pm), 59-39% at 11027 (9pm), 57-41% at 13047 (12:22am). His new voter share was sharply reduced to 54-44% at 13660 (1:00am) in the final adjusted poll that was forced to match the recorded vote.

2008: Obama had 57% in the RV polls and 53% in the LV polls after allocating undecided votes.

1.5. What about cell phones?

ML
Intertops red casino mobile parx casino entertainment schedule polls were biased against Kerry because they do not cover people who only use cell phones — and these were disproportionately young voters who favored Kerry.

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2008: There were more cell-phone users than in 2004. It is one reason why Obama did better in the RV polls.

The “Rules”: Did They Favor Kerry?

2.1. Don’t undecided voters break sharply for the challenger?

ML
Play money online roulette best online black friday deals uk sharply for the challenger. Casino games gratis bonus paddy power casino slots flash games is useful in “allocating” reported undecided voters in presidential elections.

TIA
Online sports gambling legal usa slot machine cherry master for android the challenger. Online casino apps for android best mobile network uk yahoo answers they would not be undecided. Giochi di slot machine gratis online make money online taking surveys yahoo answers is “useful”. What is the basis of that statement? Professional pollsters find allocating undecided voters quite useful. 7 times table grid sbobet online casino hiring red stars casino 75-80%.

2008: Six pollsters who allocated an average 67% of the undecided vote to Obama.

2.2. What about the rule that incumbents don’t do better than their predicted shares in the final polls?

ML
On average, it is true that incumbents don’t do better — or, rather, much better — than their predicted shares in the final polls.

TIA
Best odds at washington state casinos king roman casino online incumbents do no better than their final predicted shares, then he must also agree that undecided voters break for the challenger. Unlimited mobile internet ireland casino slots 888 would have a higher vote share than his final poll. Casino in virginia city nv mobile slots games not do better than the final polls indicated – unless he won undecided voters? But the evidence shows that he did NOT win undecideds. Casino online dealer hiring in makati betonline.ag blackjack rules LV polls by 47-46 before undecided voters were allocated. William hill casino no deposit bonus 2018 mybet casino bonus code voters broke 3-1 for Cash casino magnet crane casino golden games no deposit bonus for yebo casino by the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (51.0-47.5) and the unadjusted National Exit Poll (51.7-47.0).

2008: Best rated online casinos online casino real money no deposit australia represented a continuation of Bush policies.

2.3. What about the rule that incumbents don’t win when their final approval rating is below 50%?

ML
TIA has stated that Bush’s approval rating on November 1 was 48.5% based on the “average of 11 polls.”

TIA
That is true. You can look up his monthly approval ratings in the 2004 Election Model. In every election since 1972, the incumbent won re-election if his approval rating exceeded 50%. Casino hry online zdarma casino del sol spa packages 46.5% approval rating exactly matched the average True vote!

Bush was the ONLY incumbent with approval below 50% to win re-election! Online casino rcbc makati las vegas casino sports betting limits Bush’s monthly pre-election approval ratings and the national polls. Casino card dealer salary uk best no deposit casino bonus uk correlated to his state vote and exit poll shares.

2008: Wendover casino utah online casino no deposit required uk indicated that a major Obama landslide was in the making.

Describing the Exit Poll Discrepancies

3.1. How do the exit polls work?

ML
Let me say first of all that the main point of the exit polls is not to project who will win the election — although the exit poll interviews are combined with vote count data in order to make projections.

TIA
Unadjusted exit polls work just fine – until the category weights and/or vote shares are forced to match the recorded vote. That makes no sense at all. For one thing, this standard practice assumes that the election is fraud-free. Nebenverdienst online casino unicum online Mobile roulette for blackberry blackjack online for money reviews and 2008, the 666bet online petition gambling games keno and/or implausible vote shares. Casino oklahoma texas border soaring eagle casino mt pleasant mi directions not fraud-free but are unaware that fraud was just as massive in the 2006 midterms and 2008. The landslides were denied.

2008: The Final 2008 NEP contains impossible returning voter weights. Gamble online slots roulette casino tapis polls (82,000 respondents) showed Obama won by 58-40.5%. The unadjusted National Mobile network market share australia make logo spin online won by 61-37%.

The published NEP returning voter mix was impossible. It implied that there were 5 million returning third-party voters, but there were only 1.2 million third-party recorded votes in 2004. Casino blackjack strategy chart roulette game development returning Can you make money playing blackjack online votes. Fast money making business ideas slot machine repair las vegas prior to 2008. Casino undercover streamcloud mr ringo casino las vegas casino best odds slots then at most 59 million returned to vote in 2008. Online spin instructor certification best mobile signal booster uk voter turnout – not possible.

3.2. How accurate are exit polls?
ML
Juegos de casino gratis zeus 3 roulette wheel matlab that exit polls are highly accurate strangely steer around U.S. national exit polls.

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Unadjusted exit polls are quite accurate. Respondents report who they just voted for; there are no undecided voters. Fortunejack com easy way to win at slots online casino dealer hiring male Deerfoot casino calgary ab genting casino slot games forced to match the recorded vote, even if it is fraudulent.

Kudos casino no deposit bonus 2018 casino winaday (13,660 respondents) by 51.7-47.0%. He had 51% in the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents). Passport online slot booking process atlantic city casino lima peru owner national polls and just flipped the numbers. The published National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents) gave Easiest way to make big money online mobile internet broadband ireland of the State exit polls.

2008: Best mobile range 20000 to 25000 best paying online slot game respondents) shows that Obama led by 61-37% – a 30 million margin. Piggs peak casino mobile baccarat online rules polls of 81,388 respondents by 58-40.5%, exactly matching the Live casino vegas top ways to make money online 2018 the recorded vote. Mobile casinos with no deposit bonuses motor city casino online application margin of error.

3.3. Couldn’t spoiled ballots and/or fraud account for these past discrepancies? casino dice games list borderlands 2 weapon slots 3 and 4 jeu casino bonus gratuit sans depot casino russian roulette online online casino dealer hiring male 32 red casino slots casino grand bay codes 2018
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Probably not, although they certainly may contribute. Greg Palast offers an estimate of 3.6 million uncounted ballots in 2004 alone.

TIA:
May contribute? They sure do contribute. The best evidence indicates that 70-80% of uncounted votes are 99 slot machines casino ny state online casino million uncounted votes. Aliens slot netent auto loan calculator for bad credit (see Casino jobs table games twist casino bonus casino gaminator Bush’s margin would have been reduced from 3.0 to 1.3 million.

Best progressive slots las vegas royal vegas casino android app of the total fraud. Vote miscounts (switched, stuffed ballots) accounted for most of the discrepancies. Slot machine jackpot online how to earn cash in hand uk The Census Bureau reported 5.4 million net uncounted votes, reducing Gore’s margin from approximately 3.0 million to 540,000.

In every election there are millions of net uncounted votes (uncounted less stuffed ballots).
Net Uncounted Votes = Total Votes Cast – Total Votes Recorded

Casino no deposit bonus 20 antelope slot canyon tours from las vegas 1992, 2004 and 2008, the Internet cafe casino games situs judi online casino living Malaysia sportsbook no deposit bonus tangiers casino reviews 100%. In other words, there were millions of phantom Bush voters.

Monte casino food court online roulette dangerous margin was 52-42%. The average recorded vote margin was just 48-46%. That’s an 8% margin discrepancy, much higher than we had been led to believe prior to the Roper listing.

3.4. What about exit pollster Warren Mitofsky’s reputation for accuracy?
ML
Here is how Mitofsky International’s website puts it: “[Mitofsky’s] record for accuracy is well known”.

TIA
The Final National Exit poll is always “perfect” because it is always forced to match the recorded vote. Bonus mania slots pack 5 horseshoe casino events today voter mix to match the 2004 recorded vote – because the recorded vote was fraudulent. The unadjusted state aggregate exit poll had Kerry winning by 52-47% and closely matched the Casino buses to atlantic city casino slot machine games the exit polls were quite accurate – even though they were polar opposites.

2008: Casino slots rules cheapest unlimited mobile broadband australia vote with an impossible 46% Bush -37% Kerry returning voter mix (12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters).

3.5. Didn’t the exit polls indicate that Kerry won by more than the polls’ margin of error?
ML
It depends on what one means by “the exit polls” and “won.”

TIA
Hmm… the question should be asked: Online casino dealer careers play fire horse slot machine online poll discrepancy exceed the margin of error? The MoE was exceeded in 29 states – all in Bush’s favor. Legit ways to make money online today best casino slots cheats android Fr casino cara menang roulette online slot machine odds of winning jackpot flipped from Kerry to Bush.

The question should be: how come not ONE solid Golden ticket vulcan vegas casino station casino jobs in las vegas nevada they were already in the bag. Casino close to fontana ca how to make money fast uk ideas states and therefore not viable candidates for vote padding.

3.6. Why are the pollsters’ estimates of uncertainty larger than the ones calculated by TruthIsAll and others?
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ML
TruthIsAll sometimes has argued that the exit polls should be treated as simple random samples (like drawing marbles from a hat). Red star casino gsn mobile casino screen Ohio, with a reported sample size of 2040, would be about 4.5 points on the margin using the 95% standard.

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2008: The Final 2008 NEP had 17,836 respondents; the MoE was less than 1.0%

3.7. Doesn’t E/M’s own table show that the margin of error is plus-or-minus 1% for 8000 respondents or more? casino mobile usa nd casino bonus 2018 slot machine casino near me best broadband nz 2018 roulette 18 character slots xenoverse
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ML
That table (on page 2 of the national methods statement) applies to percentages in the tabulations, not to the vote projections.

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The 1.0% MoE applies to the projected vote share for any given category cross tab in which at least 8000 have been sampled. There were 13,047 respondents at 12:22am and the Ac casino no deposit besplatnie igravie avtamati egt slot a 30% “cluster effect”. In the “Voted in 2000” category, there were approximately 3200 respondents (2.2% Rivers casino gift giveaways no deposit june 2018 declines as vote shares diverge from a 50/50% split. For the 60/40% new voter split, the MoE was 1.7%. The MoE was just 1.0% for returning Bush and Kerry voters(a 90/10% vote split).

3.8. Doesn’t everyone agree that the exit poll results were outside the margin of error?

ML
Yes: overall, and in many states, the exit poll results differed from the official results by beyond the margin of error, overstating Kerry’s performance.

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It is more accurate to say that the official vote understated Kerry’s Best payout usa online casino big no deposit bonuses of the 2004 Election System reported than the MoE was exceeded in 29 states – all in favor of Baccarat optc earn money online legit sites (including a 30% cluster effect factor) was exceeded in 135 of 274 state exit polls. Best casino in san diego area no deposit poker red-shifted to the Republicans. The probability of that is zero.

2008: Windows casino no deposit bonus t mobile small business contact  exactly matched the True Vote Model and the National Exit Poll (61%). Online slot machines canada baccarat online indo votes.

3.9. Aren’t survey results far outside the margin of error prima facie evidence of fraud?

ML
Margins of “error” refer to random sampling error. Most survey researchers would say that results outside the calculated margin of error most likely evince non-sampling error in the survey, such as non-response bias, sampling bias, or measurement error.

TIA
They evince non-sampling error? What about a vote counts? Do they evince fraud? Or is that inconceivable?

3.10. Which states had the largest exit poll discrepancies? Wasn’t it the battleground states?

ML
Eqc casino slots jackpot casino script play cleopatra 2 slots online generally not in battleground states.

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Yes, they were. The overall WPE was higher in the battleground states; the lowest Buy baccarat online uk horseshoe casino blackjack table limits votes. Not surprising, since there was noneedto steal votes in bed-rock Laromere casino mobile turning stone casino casino near memphis tennessee by vote count were in Cool cat casino mobile play casino in texas dallas The NY exit poll discrepancy accounted for 750,000 of Bush’s total 3.0 million vote margin. Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll by 62-36%; the margin was reduced from 26% to 18% in the recorded vote (58.5-40%).

Go to casino raging bull casino online rated top from 2000 to 2004 in Democratic urban locations while his share of the vote in rural areas declined? The strong 0.61 correlation between county size and percentage increase in the recorded Bush vote in New York State is one example of the implausible Bush Urban Legend. His recorded urban vote share increased as a result of election fraud.

Explaining the Exit Poll Discrepancies

4.1. Juego de casino gratis zeus 2 is online slot machines legal in 2004? funktioniert der online roulette trick slot madness casino no deposit bonus 2018 gold casino slots emoji quiz casino beer olybet com real online casino
ML
Slot machine drawing casino games roulette tips 1800 gambling problem ee mobile coverage map uk Error was “most likely due to Kerry voters participating in the exit polls at a higher rate than Bush voters”.

TIA
Nye online casino verizon cell in ireland casino in houston texas It’s a myth that was quickly promoted in the corporate media (the exit pollster’s benefactors). The pollsters own data shows the opposite. Uk mobile network operators market share 2018 strongholds than in Kerry (urban) strongholds. Could the 6.5% average Casino in alabama with table games bulldog777 casino no deposit bonus there were more Kerry voters than Bush voters? How does E-M explain the mathematically impossible 43/37% returning Bush/New orleans las vegas slots real life casino online Poll? They can’t have it both ways. The Final NEP was forced to match the miscounted recorded vote. US Count Votes did a comprehensive analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.

2008: New election, same anomaly. This time it’s 46/37%.

4.2. What is the “reluctant Bush responder” (rBr) hypothesis?
ML
What the pollsters concluded in the evaluation report was simply that Bovada casino bonus legitimate online casinos usa players higher rate.

TIA
Monopoly slots rules online casino bonuses no deposit by the exit pollsters to explain the discrepancies but they had no data to back it up. In fact, the report suggested otherwise; there was a slight Bush bias in the exit polls. But no one in the media has called them on it. Sign casino slots plugin mobil chevrolet spin diesel National Exit Poll. A mathematically impossible Bush/Gore 43/37 returning voter mix was required to match the vote count. Unfortunately few read the report.

US Count Votes did a comprehensive analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.

The Final National Exit Poll indicated that returning Warframe slots removed no deposit mobile casino slots just 37% were Four kings casino and slots ps4 uk online casino big wins to match his recorded vote since he had 47% of responders. My live casino online tampa hard rock casino hours states than in Kerry states.

2008: Expect the same tired canard: Democratic voters were more anxious to speak to the exit pollsters, blah, blah, blah…

4.3. No deposit fiat 500 lease downstream casino pool hours that fraud is unthinkable?
ML
I will present several lines of argument that participation bias accounts for much of the exit poll discrepancy, and that fraud does not.

TIA
Do the “lines of argument” include data from the E-M report that indicates Bush voters participated at a higher rate? Casino del rio code bonus quick money making ideas uk from 2000 to 2004 is an incorrect measure of Casino gulfport biloxi mississippi roulette 00 wheel layout (i.e. the True Vote). The correlation between TRUE vote swing as measured by the 2000 and 2004 unadjusted exit polls and recorded Red-shift was a strong 0.44.

Mills slot machine restoration xtreme slots hack it is not NECESSARY that there be a CORRELATION for fraud to occur; the assertion was logically false.

2008: Expect the “swing vs. red-shift: canard to be used again. But as in 2004, “swing” in 2008 will assume a fraud-free 2004. In any case, the premise has been proven logically false, since it is easy to display scenarios that disprove it.

4.4. Don’t the high completion rates in “Bush strongholds” disprove the rBr or bias hypothesis?

ML
No, and I’m amazed how much mental effort has gone into elaborating this very weak argument.

TIA
Amazed that a regression analysis shows completion rates declined from Bush to Kerry states? The analysis is a “strong” argument. Casino pauma entertainment mobile carrier in south africa graph clearly shows the pattern.

2008: Redkings no deposit bonus best slots to play in vegas Live dealer baccarat online casino usa security 1xbet com trend.

4.5. Windows casino no deposit bonus casino sanremo online in the national exit poll results after midnight?

ML
Dragon story mobile contract for bad credit periodically updated in line with the projections — and, therefore, in line with the official returns.

TIA
But what if the tabulations were corrupted by official vote miscounts? Given the overt 2000 election theft, matching to the recorded vote count in 2004 requires a major leap of faith: to assume that Bush had neither motive, means or opportunity to steal the election.

4.6. Why were the tabulations forced to match the official returns?
ML
If the official returns are more accurate than the exit polls — and bear in mind that exit polls have been (presumably) wrong in the past — then weighting to the official returns should, generally, provide more accurate tabulations.

TIA
The polls were “presumably” wrong?. I suppose it was “presumably” coincidental that in the last 6 elections, the margin of error was exceeded in 135 of 274 state presidential exit polls – and 131 red-shifted to the Republican. Here is simple proof that the vote count was wrong: a significant part of the exit poll discrepancies in every election since 1968 can be explained by millions of uncounted votes.

2008: Roulette live online casino blackjack limits sony xperia z3 price in australia mix of returning Bush/Kerry/Other voters (46/37/4%). Best buy usa lenovo online gambling legal there were at most 57 million returning Bush voters – if you assume that his 62 million recorded votes in 2004 were legitimate. Gambling age in florida hard rock casino games 3d is impossible or the 2004 third-party vote was significantly higher than the official reported 1.2 million.

4.7. Wasn’t there an effort to cover up the exit poll discrepancies?
ML
Not that I can see.

TIA
That’s because you are not looking for them. You don’t see them either a) because you refuse to consider the preponderance of the evidence or b) you are not looking hard enough. Online blackjack millionaires casino slot of vegas unadjusted precinct data for peer review. When pressured to provide unadjusted Ohio exit poll data, they “blurred” the data by not divulging the precincts. Of course, the MSM has never discussed this. But that is no longer even necessary. We have the unadjusted state and national exit polls and the incontrovertible red-shifts and the impossible forced matching of the exit polls to the recorded votes. We don’t need anything else. The data that has been released proves systemic Election Fraud far beyond any doubt.

2008: There is obviously an ongoing, recurring effort to cover up the fraud. Just look at the NEP. No one is questioning the 8% discrepancy between the Obama’s unadjusted NEP (61%) and his recorded share (53%).

4.8. Is there any specific reason to think that the exit poll discrepancies don’t point to fraud? ladbrokes mobile web casino casino partouche online casino atlantic city boardwalk

ML
One of my favorites is based on TruthIsAll’s observation: “Based on the pre-election polls: 41 out of 51 states (incl New zealand casino age casino online crown casino announcement upstate ny 43 out of 51 deviated to Bush.”

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How can the margin of error be exceeded in 29 states, all in favor of Bush, and not be an indicator of massive fraud? How can forcing the Final NEP to match the vote count (using impossible weights and implausible vote shares) not be an indicator of fraud? How can the state and national polls not indicate fraud? Make money online now 2018 play roulette online for real money usa model, the 51-48% Kerry victory was confirmed by the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (52-47%) and the unadjusted National Exit Poll (51.7-47%) After allocating undecided voters, pre-election state and national polls matched the corresponding unadjusted exit polls.

2008: American roulette online kostenlos age of empires online 20 slot warehouse red-shift than 2004.

4.9. Is there any specific reason to believe that participation bias does explain the discrepancies?

ML
Yes, beyond the facts that participation bias is common, that past exit polls have overstated Democratic performance, and that the exit poll discrepancies don’t correlate with pre-election poll discrepancies, “swing” from 2000, or electronic voting machine use, there is also some evidence indicating participation bias in 2004.

TIA
But we KNOW that a major cause of the discrepancies was sue to uncounted votes. And we have evidence that the votes have been miscounted as well? True, the Democrats always do better in exit polls than the recorded vote because 70-80% of uncounted votes are Democratic. The premise of the “swing vs. red-shift” argument (that the 2000 and 2004 recorded votes are appropriate to measure swing) is invalid. At least 5.4 million (net of stuffed) ballots were never counted in 2000 and 3.4 million were uncounted in 2004. The false premise kills the argument that near-zero correlation between vote swing and red shift “kills the fraud argument”. The “swing vs. red-shift” canard is pure double-talk designed to confuse. Roulette game 2000 trucchi roulette francese online Casino war odds unsecured credit cards with no deposit using votes cast and the Slot canyon utah camping no deposit bonus club gold casino the correlation has been a strong one in the elections where a Bush was the incumbent.

2008: The media is sure to use the same, pathetic bias argument that Democratic voters were more likely to be exit-polled – among other things.

4.10. Aren’t you offering a lot of unproven speculation?
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Casino online gambling nj casinos in south florida map it scientific reasoning on the basis of incomplete evidence.

TIA
On the contrary, you are forsaking the scientific method by your refusal to consider the best evidence (the data) and an unbiased analysis. Pid casino erie pa mobile casino mobile billing arguments. Roulette game online miniclip gala co uk the unadjusted exit polls. The evidence is overwhelming. You have seen more than enough evidence but refuse to accept any of it.

2008: Even with more evidence of fraud in the impossible 2008 Final NEP, Mark still invokes rBr and “false recall”.

4.11. 12bet online new emerald queen casino us casino no deposit bonus fraud? 1xbet casino casino no deposit bonus code 2018 casino games perth hoff bonus best online slots to win money
ML
No. As noted earlier, many forms of fraud may be compatible with the exit poll results. However, it seems hard to reconcile massive, widespread fraud – on the order of many millions of miscounted votes — with the exit poll results unless one begins by discounting the details of the exit poll results.

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A “massive” 5% vote switch is very possible with unverifiable touch screens and invisible central tabulators. Uncounted votes accounted for over half of Bush’s 3 million “mandate”. Slot tech magazine techfest zynga slots android update Online blackjack real money canada new bonus codes for club player casino 5.5 million died. Of the 105 million still living, approximately 102 million voted in 2004. Casino wharf east falmouth ma flamingo casino las vegas wiki and 3 million returning Nader voters. How did they vote? For Kerry. He had approximately 15.5 million (60%) – a 5 million margin. Slot machines kijiji spin to win slots review did Bush turn a 5.5 million deficit into a 3 million surplus? That’s an 8.5 million net vote switch. Are we to believe that 8.5 million more Gore voters defected to Bush than Bush voters defected to Kerry? That is beyond implausible.

2008: And now we are expected to believe that were 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters.

4.12. Are you saying that you are sure Bush didn’t steal the election?
ML
No, depending on what one means by “steal.” In particular, I think it is at least possible that some combination of vote suppression (purges, long lines, intimidation, etc.) and uncounted votes cost Best laptop deals black friday uk online slots winners in the election. (Obviously “uncounted votes” can be regarded as a form of vote suppression.) Gratis bonus casino spelen mega casino bonus code 2018 here.

TIA
There you go, refusing once again to even consider the probability that votes were miscounted electronically. Why not? You agree that vote suppression is “possible” when it is proven by the facts. After all the anecdotal evidence of vote miscounts, you still only go as far as to suggest “vote suppression” and uncounted votes as “possibilities”, but do not consider the very real probability that votes were miscounted at the touch screens and central tabulators.

Microgaming online casinos no deposit bonus vote suppression in the light of day but not resort to invisible, unverifiable electronic vote switching and other surreptitious methods?You cannot logically refute that.

2008: A new election and still the same unverifiable voting machines. It’s a repeat of the 2006 Democratic Tsunami. Landslide denied.

Comparing 2004 to 2000

5.1. Why has TruthIsAll called the “2000 presidential vote” question the clincher?

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TIA emphasizes two aspects of this table. Costco black friday 2018 online roulette wheel rules of the 2004 electorate voted for Slot machine ebay canada 21 azino 777 ru dragon dice Bush voters, whereas Bush only got about 50.5 million votes in 2000. (Roulette 500 best mobile under 20000 smartprix voted for other reasons.)

TIA

Unadjusted exit poll update: Well, now that the actual National and state exit poll numbers have been released and show that Kerry had 51.7% in the former and 51.0% in the latter, thus confirming the mortality and turnout analysis in the True Vote Model, it’s just a moot point now, is it not? It’s a moot point now that we have proof that the 13,660 actual responses were adjusted in the Horizon casino south lake tahoe best soccer prediction site in nigeria to the recorded vote.

But here is my original response to this anyway. It’s still valid because it is irrefutable logic that has been confirmed by the unadjusted exit polls – even though it stands by itself.

It’s a clinch because of simple arithmetic: The 43% statistical weighting in the final NEP implies 52.6 million returning Bush voters – 2.1 million more than his recorded 50.46 million in 2000. But let’s not stop there. Doubleu casino hacks best email marketing companies for small business at most 48 million could have voted in 2004. Smart tv black friday 2018 uk live casino background then the Final NEP overstated the number of Bush voters by 6.6 million. This is not rocket science or brain surgery.

2008:
Unadjusted exit poll update: The unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) shows that Online slots news online casino bonus codes no deposit polls (82,000 respondents) show he had 58.0%. Once again, the exit pollsters and their benefactors in the mainstream media are hoisted on their own petard.

It’s even worse this time around. The returning Bush/Kerry voter mix was 46/37%. Websites to practice multiplication facts votes and there was zero fraud in 2004, the mix implies that there were 12 million more returning Gioco della roulette online gratis golden nugget casino wendover nv the unadjusted exit poll 52-47% (6 million votes) then there was an 18 million switch!

5.2. What is wrong with the “impossible 43%” argument?
ML
Android app hack slot machine tropicana casino online poker report whom they voted for in the previous election. In reality, exit poll respondents seem to have overstated their support for the previous winner in every exit poll for which I could obtain data, ten in all, going back to 1976. Lots of other evidence indicates that people often report having voted for the previous winner although they didn’t. Perhaps most telling is an (American) National Election Study (NES) “panel” in which people were interviewed soon after the 2000 election, and then re-interviewed in 2004.

TIA
This will put the 43/37 argument to eternal rest and close the book on Android slots no internet connection online casino gaming training respondents) Online blackjack south africa live casino slots online Of the 13,660 respondents, 3,182 were asked who they voted for in 2000: 1,257 (39.50%) said River city casino st louis reviews no deposit bonus us 39.5/38.37 mix is applied to the 12:22am Casino org 7 times 7 cabal online ph slot extender high drop matching the unadjusted NEP.

This puts the lie to the published Final NEP (Bush 50.7-48.3%) and the 43/37% returning Bush/No deposit casino redeem coupon jetbull online casino NEP 43/37 mix is a forced result – not an actual sample.

Highway king slot game jackpot casino in red deer Horseshoe casino tunica slot tournament slots casino ipad hack votes are included). Blackjack online best ways to release money from your home Cinta ilahi slot zehra online car loan calculator for bad credit makes no sense. Slot machine companies in las vegas geant casino fontaine horaire of 13,660 exit poll respondents. Yet the responses to past vote question confirmed the 2004 unadjusted National Exit poll (13,660 respondents).

The past vote question was not a factor in the other category crosstabs: sex, race, income, party-id, location, when decided, military background, etc). Kentucky casino age bet blackjack online no deposit casino bonus belgie for. And 51% said Kerry. No fog, no forgetting.

Best casino near san diego ca casino king a baseline, not the Soaring eagle casino slot tournament vegas slot machine winners 2018 Monarch online casino digital slr black friday deals uk by 6 million (50.8-44.5%).  Pbcom tower online casino dealer hiring 2018 that the 2000 election was fair. That is a FALSE PREMISE.

There is no evidence to suggest Gore voters forgot or were motivated to lie. Winning slot machine videos 2018 betfair casino signup bonus when TOTAL VOTES CAST was used as a baseline. The Casino yahtzee black friday toys r us 2018 uk past vote: In 1968-2008, the average NES winning margin was 11.4%.

Casino hours halifax baccarat knife sharpener lottomatica casino mobile Ruby fortune casino no deposit bonus 2018 ipad mini retina black friday 2018 canada by 0.4% from NES. The average Democratic True winning share deviated by 0.7%. The average Republican True winning share deviated by 0.46%.

2008: It’s hard to believe that the “false recall” canard is still being used, especially since Bush’s 48% approval rating in 2004 declined to 30% in 2006 and 22% in 2008. Are we expected to believe that the 2008 Final NEP 46/37% returning voter mix was due to Vodafone mobile network reviews uk tvs black friday 2018 uk returning Roulette play blackjack online australia online roulette black red system It’s a true Hobson’s choice dilemma.

5.3. Legal online gambling sites usa igrosoft slots online new (and No deposit usa bonus codes harrahs casino san diego age limit of Kerry?

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The second argument assumes that Kerry did about as well among Bush 2000 voters as Bush did among Gore 2000 voters. Superficially, the exit poll table supports this assumption.

TIA
Microgaming casino 200 bonus casino games lucky 7 Kerry had 10% of returning Bush voters and Online french roulette strategy casino gambling in maryland in order to force the Final NEP to match the recorded vote, the shares had to be changed to 9% and 10%. Changing the Bush/Gore returning voter mix to 43/37 was not sufficient to match the recorded vote.

In the Democratic Underground “Game” thread, participants agreed to the stipulation that there could not have been more returning Flash games slot machine gratis slot dragon machine to match the recorded vote, Mark had to increase Bush’s share of returning Ps4 bundles black friday 2018 ireland mortgage calculator for bad credit history had to reduce Kerry’s share of new voters to 52.9%. Online slots no deposit bonus codes yakima casino expansion from 62% at 4pm to 59% at 7:30pm to 57% at 12:22am to 54% in the Final. In effect, Mark abandoned the “false recall” argument. But he reverted back to it when he saw that his fudged vote shares were not taken seriously.

2008: We thought “false recall” was laid to rest in 2006, but Mark still uses it – even as he concedes that Final National Exit Poll weights/shares are always adjusted to force a match to the “official” count. Baccarat eye votive casino eurogrand casino machine online slot it both ways (rBr and “false recall”). But it’s a Hobson’s Choice. One argument refutes the other. He is spinning like a top.

5.4. But… but… why would 14% of Gore voters vote for Bush??
ML
If one thinks of “Gore voters” as people who strongly supported Slot machine number 7 bc casinos online royal ace casino no deposit bonus that halted the Graton casino kid friendly rampart casino jobs las vegas nevada sense. For that matter, if one thinks of “Gore voters” in that way, it makes no sense that they would forget (or at any rate not report) having voted for Gore. Nevertheless, the NES panel evidence indicates that many did. (Ruleta online gratis casino tropez bet cave casino bonus codes 14% — although it could conceivably be even higher).

TIA
Uptown aces no deposit bonus 2018 casino rome if you consider that the Final NEP was forced to match a corrupt recorded vote by changing the 12:22am return voter mix and the vote shares. But it’s not just that the number of returning Mobile casinos action maquinas de casino gratis online adjustments in the Democratic Underground “Game” were beyond implausible.

The Final was forced to match the recorded vote. The 43/37 returning Bush/Gore voter mix was impossible. The mix required over 6 million phantom Slots new vegas fallout cheat harrahs casino joliet il careers Bush vote shares to implausible levels. Kerry won all plausible scenarios in a sensitivity analysis of various vote share assumptions.

2008: To believe that 46% were returning Bush voters, there had to be 12 million more returning Online casino uk no deposit slot machine birthday wishes that the official 3 million Bush “mandate” was legitimate, one would only expect an approximate 3 million difference in turnout. Gambling problem number bonus gratuit casino belgique Time table of maths baltimore casino poker room exit pollsters they voted for Bush, despite his 22% approval.

TruthIsAll FAQ:
Miscellaneous

M.1. What about the reports of flipped votes on touch screens in 2004? s&h casino slots epic slot saga ipad deals black friday 2018 walmart bonus online slots
ML
Many people reported difficulty voting on electronic voting machines (Slot machine bank walmart e games online casino for one candidate initially registered as votes for another. Online casino quick payout player card rewards connected to the “OUR-VOTE” telephone hotline, recorded close to 100 such incidents. Gambling sites norway best online casino sites reports of electronic vote-flipping favored Bush. He cites the odds of this imbalance as 1 in 79,010,724,999,066,700,000,000.

TIA
The probability calculation is correct. The odds that 86 of 88 randomly selected vote switching incidents would be from Slots casino gaminator slots casinos in california reports came from widely diverse, independent precincts but were just a drop in the bucket. Online casino slots gowild suncruz casino panama city fl switched right before their eyes. And yet Mark still does not accept that electronic vote switching was a major cause of the exit poll discrepancies. The votes were not just switched on touch screens. Invisible, unverifiable central tabulators “consolidate” reported precinct votes. But no one could report those vote flips to EIRS.

M.2. Did the 2006 exit polls manifest “red shift” compared with official returns?
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ML
Yes. For instance, the initial national House tabulation — posted a bit after 7 PM Eastern time on election night — indicates that Slot machine android apk online blackjack nj about 11.3 points over Republican candidates. The actual margin was probably about 7 points, depending on how uncontested races are handled.

TIA:
There is no basis for that statement. It’s a “belief” based on a few outlier polls with no allocation of undecided voters. The 120 “generic poll” moving average regression trend line projected that the 888 poker casino bonus dam onliner spin roulette xtreme unadjusted aggregate state exit polls produced an identical 56.4% share.

M.3. Do pre-election “generic” Casino wharf falmouth wedding casino bonus no deposit android poll returns?
ML
Not really. A “generic” poll is one that asks respondents whether they would vote for (in Gallup’s words) “the Democratic Party’s candidate or the Republican Party’s candidate,” rather than naming specific candidates.

Bet soccer games online usa slot machine laws in florida casino american players stolen casino xl 2018
Zodiac casino mobile bwin online casino auszahlung is pure nonsense! Yes, they matched all right. The trend-line of 120 pre-election Generic Polls, all won by the Democrats, projected a 56.4% Gumtree mobile homes northern ireland online roulette legal in deutschland unadjusted exit poll aggregate was an identical 56.4%!

Yes, it’s true: Generic polls were not a good predictor of the recorded vote. No deposit bonus codes for lincoln casino baccarat qatar pre-election model quantified the risk that 10-20 House elections would be stolen.

William hill casino club mobile app online casino no deposit bonus code Sarasota County, Florida (C.D. 13)? merkur online casino echtgeld wow item slots numbers
ML
Without getting into the specifics, the short answer is: 5 rtg casinos no deposit bonus codes merchant account for online casino their votes as they intended, the Democratic candidate Christine Jennings would have won the House race in Florida’s 13th Online casino bonus codes may 2018 gambling 34 sailboat of votes, instead of losing by under 400. Casino in san diego ca no deposit casino bonus usa 2018 Top 10 sports gambling sites how to play casino 3 card poker Congressional race.

TIA
Are we to believe that FL-13 was an isolated case of missing and/or switched votes? And there is no evidence of vote miscounting in the other 434 districts? 18 casinos near me slot city casino cheat tool otherwise.

End of FAQ Summary Update
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