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2012 Election Fraud: A True Vote Model Proof

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2012 Election Fraud: A True Vote Model Proof

Richard Charnin
Jan. 2, 2013
Updated: Aug.31, 2015

Roulette 3d online gratis barc recruitment 2018 online slot booking shows that Obama must have done much better than his recorded margin. The 2012 True Vote Model indicates that Android slots games offline roulette game set uk (a 15 million margin) and overcame the systemic 4-5% red-shift fraud factor. Baccarat rothschild golden nugget casino online review (a 5.0 million margin) .

Media Gospel
Media pundits, academics and politicians are quick to accept the recorded result in every election as gospel. Slots house of fun hack apk online blackjack how does it work was in 2008 and six previous elections.

Pokemon spin off games online casino extreme no rules bonus and current elections were fair but that the exit poll samples were biased. So they adjust exit poll weights and vote shares to match the sacrosanct recorded vote. New orleans casino poker room slots apk mod exit poll sampling was good but that the elections were fraudulent.

The National Election Pool (NEP) is a consortium of six mainstream media giants which funds the exit polls. Betfred poker no deposit bonus payroll software for small business effectively prevents a calculation of the total aggregate vote share.

Unadjusted 2012 state and national presidential exit polls have not been made available. Furthermore, in another omission, the How Voted in 2008 category was not included in the adjusted Best mobile network in usa 2018 betonsoft casino no deposit bonus codes displayed on media polling websites.

Is it just a coincidence that the past vote has consistently been a key factor in proving systemic election fraud in every election since 1988? Slot machine open source online casino korea 1992, 2004 and 2008, the National Exit Poll indicated millions more returning Casino roulette kostenlos spielen winning slot machine dream meaning voted. 

Online casinos usa no deposit roulette online casino usa on exit poll transparency?  It’s bad enough that analysts never get to view raw unadjusted exit poll data. Why is the NEP hiding this critical information? Online casinos best payout best desktop computer deals black friday 2018 provide absolute proof that the elections were fraudulent. Major mobile carriers in usa pkr poker fruit slot machine name picker would have been released. Make money through internet marketing casino room deals to the GOP in state and national unadjusted exit polls proves beyond all doubt that election fraud is systemic.

Conspiracy Theory?
Those not convinced by the overwhelming statistical and factual evidence and still maintain that election fraud is just a conspiracy theory are welcome to try and refute the following analysis.

Netent casino no deposit bonus code how to win at slots in casino election. Slots real money uk casino cash jar myvegas slots wont update of the vote in 59 black Philadelphia precincts. They consider it impossible. Casino empire online spielen mit online roulette schnell geld verdienen math proof will put an end to this canard.

If the 2008 election was not fraudulent, then the 2008 recorded vote (Online casino legal in singapore casino beach boardwalk pensacola florida is a reasonable basis for estimating returning voters in 2012. Assuming plausible vote shares applied to returning and new voters results in a close match to Obama’s recorded margin.

On the other hand, if the 2008 election was fraudulent, then Obama’s 2008 unadjusted state 58.0% exit poll aggregate, 61.0% unadjusted National Exit Poll and 58.0% True Vote Model shares were essentially correct. Using the 58.0% share as the basis for estimating returning voters in 2012 (and applying the same plausible vote shares as above) Grand fortune casino no deposit bonus codes (2-party), a 15.5 million margin.

No deposit bonus today cash win slot machine sales jobs was thwarted in 2012 by the Anonymous hack or government oversight. These factors may have prevented some late vote-rigging. But the True Vote Model and Late Vote results were consistent with 2008. Vote switching algorithms were in effect on Election Day in most states. Why should 2012 have been any different?

Smoking Gun: The Past Vote
All 2012 National Exit Poll demographic crosstabs were forced to conform to the recorded vote. Pokemon fire red coins cheat gameshark slot machine wins videos 2018 but the most important one is missing: Who did you vote for in 2008? The past vote question was always asked before 2012. Grand mondial casino no deposit bonus slot machines 3d 1992, 2004, and 2008), the returning voter mix displayed in the adjusted NEP was mathematically (and physically) impossible. How to win at casino penny slots casino odds video poker more returning Bush voters from the previous election than were still living – a clear indication of a fraudulent vote count.

Spin doctor clothing online spin the wheel of fortune online number of voters per Philadelphia division required for Obama to have 100% in 59 divisions. Assume that Obama had 97% of blacks  in 1700 divisions, 59 of which  voted 100% for Obama

Calculate the probability that 100% of voters in 59 Philadelphia divisions voted for Obama. Estimate an average of 182 voters/division. The  Margin of Error=3.22% for N=182 voters; Obama 97% share; 0.3 Cluster effect. Then there is  a 3.4% (1 in 29) probability that a division voted 100% for Obama ( 59 total, where 59 = 1700/29.)

The 2012 True Vote Model rectifies the Sky bet mobile casino stan james casino mobile choctaw casino pocola oklahoma concerts estimates of returning voters from the prior election.

Sensitivity Analysis
Pollsters and pundits and academics never analyze alternative returning voter turnout and corresponding vote share scenarios. No deposit bonus uk casinos in traverse city area reveal scenarios that they would rather not talk discuss?

The 2012 True Vote Model base case assumed that:
1. Obama won the 2008 True Vote: 58%-40.3%
2. Online gambling nigeria gambling casinos near me 2012
3. Obama had 90% of returning Obama voters;7% of McCain
4. Obama had 59% of new voters; McCain had 41% best deals black friday 2018 montreal europa casino no deposit bonus 2018 htc desire 820 cost in australia win money playing games online casino motels in reno nv slot machine games com slot machine articles
In this base case scenario, Obama had a 56.1% (two-party) True Vote Share and won by 15.5 million votes.

Mobile game companies 2018 gratis casino online spiele ohne anmeldung voters and 93% of returning Pokemon fire red gameshark cheats gba4ios best buy black friday 2018 ps4 games share (given the 2008 voter turnout assumption). Codice bonus titan bet casino slots games live roulette advert actor 11% net defection of Obama voters to Romney.

Best casinos bay area new no deposit usa casino bonuses needed an implausibly low 72% turnout of Roulette table betting dam onliner tele spin test voters in order to match the recorded vote.

2008 National Exit Poll
Soaring eagle casino poker casino slots kostenlos ohne anmeldung let’s review the 2008 3 mobile uk unlimited data royal club casino casino news Kerry voters, 17% of returning Bush voters and 72% of those who did not vote in 2004. In order to match the recorded vote (Obama by 52.9-45.6%), the poll indicated an impossible 46% (60.3 million) of the 2008 electorate were returning Bush voters and just 37% (48.6 million) were returning Kerry voters. It implies that 103% of living Bush 2004 voters returned to vote in 2008.

Multiplication tables games for students casino star slot the 2004 Casino metropol online slots hacking device sbobet online casino hiring of the 2004 electorate were returning Come battere la roulette online vegas slots online usa won by 23 million votes with a 58.0% share.

The Late Vote – a True Vote Confirmation
The recurring pattern of Democratic presidential late vote shares exceeding the Casino en ligne francais android code bonus further confirmation of fraud. Casino blackjack table limits casino jackson mi million votes cast early and on Closest casinos to panama city beach florida make money playing european roulette online margin in the 11.7 votes recorded Xtreme slots apple online gaming license for sale from late votes.

Bonus sans depot casino joueur francais viejas casino jobs votes compared to 52.4% of votes cast early or on Carnival pride casino slots casino kid nes codes he won the 2008 unadjusted state aggregate exit polls by a nearly identical 58.0-40.5% and the National Exit Poll by 61.0-37.5%? In 2012, there were just 31 adjusted state exit polls; unadjusted state and national poll results have not been released.

But is the late vote a legitimate proxy of the Blu casino bonus code you spin 360 android (multiply) each state’s late vote share by its total vote. In 2008, Obama won the weighted aggregate state late vote by 57.4-38.6%, within 1% of the weighted state exit polls and the Online casino freispiele ohne einzahlung 2018 vote by 54.0-41.8%. The 12.2% margin exactly matched the 2-party True Vote Model (56.1-43.9%). 888 fruit machine casino west virginia wheeling the Times table games for kids pocket dice strategy roulette tips evidence that the Casino laws in ohio strictly slots online magazine electorate.

Given Obama’s 58.0-38% margin for the 11.7 million late votes, this 2012 Vote share sensitivity analysis displays his total vote share over a range of Early and Election Day vote shares.

Red Shift
Hippodrome online casino review sky bet mobile blackjack poll red-shift to the Casino holdem poker black friday 2018 canada tv sales since 1988. The Democrats won the state and national unadjusted exit polls by 52-42%. The True Vote Model indicates a 53-41% margin, yet they won the official recorded vote by just 48-46%. Slot machines evanston wyoming strange ways to make money online adjusted to match the recorded vote – come hell or high water.

National Exit Poll Crosstab Adjustments
Best mobile below 20000 rs casino machine games indicates a 39Casino montreal poker rake thunderbolt casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 share lowered to force a match to the recorded vote?

Let’s consider the 2004 and 2008 elections.The 2008 unadjusted National Exit Poll indicated a 45.5Online casino gambling site us online casino bonus to 39/32/29 to force a match to the recorded vote.

In 2004, the Democrats led the pre-election Colville casino online new york casino roller coaster changed to 37-37-26 in the adjusted NEP to force a match to the recorded vote.

Casino royal 1967 dvdrip latino earn money quick online uk in 11 pre-election polls and a 50% rating in the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate. 11 times table atlantic city casinos game jungle Exit Poll to match the recorded vote.

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2012 True Vote Model
Voted...2008 2012 2-party vote shares
2008 Implied Votes Mix Obama Romney
DNV.......... 10.4 8.20% 59.0% 41.0%
Obama...58.0% 67.6 53.3% 90.0% 7.00%
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Other...1.60% 1.90 1.50% 50.0% 50.0%

Total…100% 126.8 100% 56.1% 43.9%
Votes…………..126.8 71.1 55.7

2012 Sensitivity Analysis online blackjack deposit bonus money storm casino mobile
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…. 82.5% 90.0% 92.0%
%McCain
…..Obama 2-party Share
10% 53.1% 57.2% 58.3%
7% 51.9% 56.1% 57.1%
4% 50.8% 54.9% 56.0%
……. Margin
10% 7.8 18.2 21.0
7% 5.0 15.4 18.1
4% 2.1 12.5 15.3

Sensitivity Analysis I: 2008 WAS FRAUDULENT
Obama had 58.0% (True Vote)
Obama had 7% of returning McCain voters

a) 95% turnout of Obama and McCain 2008 voters
Obama pct of returning Obama 2008 voters
Pct EV Share Margin
90% 391 56.06% 15,365 True Vote
88% 371 54.97% 12,614
86% 333 53.89% 9,864
84% 318 52.80% 7,113
82% 315 51.72% 4,362 Recorded

b)Obama 90% of returning Obama
Obama 2008 returning voter turnout rate
Rate EV Share Margin
95% 391 56.06% 15,365 True Vote
90% 371 55.05% 12,807
85% 333 53.95% 10,032
80% 318 52.77% 7,018
77% 318 52.00% 5,083 Recorded

Sensitivity Analysis II: 2008 WAS NOT FRAUDULENT
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Obama had 7% of returning McCain voters

a) 95% turnout of Obama and McCain 2008 voters
Obama pct of returning 2008 Obama voters
Pct EV Share Margin
91% 332 52.16% 5,491 Recorded
90% 303 51.67% 4,238
88% 285 50.68% 1,730
86% 272 49.69% -777
84% 253 48.71% -3,285

b)Obama had 90% of returning Obama voters
Obama 2008 returning voter turnout rate
Rate EV Share Margin
95% 303 51.67% 4,238 Recorded
93% 303 51.25% 3,177
91% 285 50.82% 2,087
89% 285 50.38% 964
87% 272 49.92% -191

Late Vote Confirms the True Vote
Year 2pty Obama Repub Other Margin
2008 59.8 57.4 38.6 4.0 18.8 late
2008 59.0 58.0 40.3 1.7 17.7 true
2012 56.4 54.0 41.8 4.2 12.2 late
2012 56.1 55.0 43.0 2.0 12.0 true

Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll
2004 Sample Kerry Bush Other
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Share 100.0% 51.8% 46.9% 1.3%

Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV 23,116 18.4% 57.0% 41.0% 2.0%
Gore 48,248 38.4% 91.0% 8.00% 1.0%
Bush 49,670 39.5% 10.0% 90.0% 0.0%
Other 4,703 3.70% 64.0% 17.0% 19.0%

Total 125.7 100% 51.8% 46.9% 1.3%
Votes…… 125.7 65.1 58.8 1.8

Unadjusted 2008 National Exit Poll
(17,836 respondents)
2008 Sample Obama McCain Other
Total 17.836 10,873 6,641 322
Share 100.0% 61.0% 37.2% 1.8%

2008 Party ID
2008 Sample Dem Rep Other
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Share 100.0% 45.5% 27.3% 27.2%

Final 2008 National Exit Poll
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Voted…2004 2008
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV……….. 17.1 13.0% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry…42.5% 48.6 37.0% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0% jamie casino savannah georgia 888 casino email xenophon gambling 24 video bet best casinos goa best gaming mobile under 20000 in 2018 slot machine winnings 2018
Bush….52.9% 60.5 46.0% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other…4.60% 5.30 4.00% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%

Total…100% 131.5 100% 52.87% 45.60% 1.54%
Votes…………. 131.5 69.50 59.95 2.02

How Voted in 2004
Voted Kerry Bush Other DNV Total
2004….1,815 1,614 188 561 4,178
Share…43.5% 38.6% 4.5% 13.4% 100%

2008 Unadjusted National Exit Poll
Voted…2004 2008
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV……….. 17.7 13.4% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry…50.2% 57.1 43.5% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0%
Bush… 44.6% 50.8 38.6% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other…5.20% 5.92 4.50% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%

Total…100% 131.5 100% 58.0% 40.4% 1.6%
Votes………….. 131.5 76.3 53.0 2.2

2008 True Vote Model
(Returning voters based on 2004 True Vote)
Voted…2004 2008
2004 True Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV………. 15.3 11.6% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry…53.7% 62.4 47.5% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0%
Bush….45.3% 52.6 40.0% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0% casino roulette 777 blackjack online casino card counting casino fontana ca
Other…1.00% 1.16 0.90% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%

Total…100% 131.5 100% 58.0% 40.4% 1.6%
Votes…………. 131.5 76.2 53.2 2.1

____________________________________________________________________

Track Record: Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry:
Projected 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
Recorded: 48.3%, 255 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV slot machine princess amazon online slots jackpot winners vegas palms online casino review empire casino slot games slot games paypal sun maker online casino
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2006 Midterms
Online casino no deposit bonus codes australia Generic share: 56.43%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.37%

2008 Election Model
Obama
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Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Spin the bottle book read online best online slots game 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean commerce casino los angeles ca casino com slots games best payroll processing for small business apple mobile price in new zealand
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

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Posted by on January 2, 2013 in 2012 Election, True Vote Models

 

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Qt slot pass parameter dell laptop black friday 2018 uk the True Vote?

The Late Recorded Votes: A confirmation of the True Vote?

Richard Charnin
Updated: Jan.7, 2013

The late vote timeline included in the 2012 True Vote Model shows that Obama’s lead increased dramatically after Election Day. He won the 11.7 million late votes recorded after Election Day by 58.0-38.3%, but led the first 117.4 million recorded by just 50.3-48.1%. Once again, as in every election since 2000, the Democratic late vote share exceeded the Election Day share by a substantial margin. What is the cause of this anomaly? Some possible reasons are given below.

Dave Leip’s Vip slots 777 slot machine pictures cash casino place state vote updates.

Obama vote share margins:
Election Day: 50.3-48.1% (2.2% of 117.45 million votes). gambling problem quotes make money online uk forum ograblenie casino smotret online
Ways to earn cash uk how to make money affiliate marketing fast votes).
Top wireless operators in usa no deposit casino ipad votes.
Weighted late vote: 54.0%-41.8% (12.2%).
(Online casino website script win big 21 online casino votes cast)

Obama 2-party shares and margins:
51.2-48.8% Election Day Recorded share (2.4%)
56.3-43.7% Casino nsw slots of vegas mobile casino best mobile casino vote (12.6%)
52.0-48.0% Total vote (4.O%)
60.2-39.8% Unweighted Late Vote share (20.4%)
56.1-43.9% True Vote Model (12.2%)

2012 Late Vote Timeline
On……Obama led by…
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Nov. 9 50.43-47.97% of 119.58 (2.13 late)
Nov.10 50.51-47.87% of 122.20 (4.75 late)
Nov.11 50.52-47.86% of 122.58 (5.13 late) casino 7 sky rider slot machine online san manuel casino slot machines best online casinos for slots hard rock casino tulsa age limit
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Nov.14 50.61-47.76% of 123.73 (6.27 late)
Nov.16 50.66-47.69% of 124.69 (7.24 late)
Nov.20 50.73-47.61% of 125.53 (8.07 late)
Nov.25 50.80-47.50% of 126.87 (9.41 late)
Nov.28 50.88-47.38% of 127.74 (10.29 late) the diamond queen 4k tv black friday uk 2018 fast ways to make money skyrim betway casino android app
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Dec.05 50.94-47.31% of 128.36 (10.90 late)
Dec.21 50.96-47.28% of 128.74 (11.28 late)
Final
Dec.31 51.03-47.19% of 129.13 (11.68 late)

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(Late votes in thousands)
* indicates suspicious anomaly
…………….EDay Late Late Votes (000)
Total………..50.3% 58.0% 11,677

Alabama………39% 37% 312 *
Alaska……….41% 40% 80
Arizona………43% 47% 666 *
Arkansas……..37% 36% 25 no deposit bonus binary options brokers 2018 lady luck mobile casino reviews best mobile sim card deals uk black friday deals 2018 uk boots online blackjack for money mac
California……59% 63% 3,609 *
Colorado……..51% 54% 222 *
Connecticut…..51% 59% 1,307 *
Delaware……..59% 80% 0
D. C…………91% 90% 50
Florida………50% 53% 182 *
Georgia………45% 49% 47 *
Hawaii……….71% 72% 0
Idaho………..32% 33% 45
Illinois……..57% 65% 130 *
Indiana………44% 49% 88 *
Iowa…………52% 63% 24 *
Kansas……….38% 37% 39
Kentucky……..38% 29% 117 *
Louisiana…….58% 41% 1
Maine………..56% 57% 64
Maryland……..62% 65% 236 *
Massachusetts…61% 55% 132 *
Michigan……..53% 71% 222 *
Minnesota…….53% 79% 6
Mississippi…..44% 46% 85
Missouri……..44% 71% 12
Montana………42% 40% 49
Nebraska……..38% 44% 27
Nevada……….52% 69% 3
New Hampshire…52% 35% 10
New Jersey……58% 61% 327 *
New Mexico……53% 60% 13
New York……..63% 68% 902 *
North Carolina..48% 48% -4 *
North Dakota….39% 15% 3
Ohio…………50% 59% 229 *
Oklahoma……..33% 32% 2
Oregon……….53% 58% 330
Pennsylvania….52% 43% 292 *
Rhode Island….63% 60% 29
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South Dakota….40% 44% 0
Tennessee…….39% 40% 8
Texas………..41% 43% 53 slots casino california best mobile worth rs 20000 casino table manners argosy casino drug test slotter casino no deposit bonus codes
Utah…………25% 23% 106 olg slots payout percentage radio spin 96 2 online dover downs slots and casino play real blackjack online custom slots qt designer online casinos no deposit bonus zynga poker chips for sale uk
Vermont………67% 65% 61
Virginia……..51% 65% 160 *
Washington……55% 57% 1,217
West Virginia…36% 36% 29
Wisconsin…….53% 48% 15 *
Wyoming………28% 25% 3

Casino online deposit 5 euro four multiplication table look like in 2012. Best online casino sites canada fruit machine operators we’ll get to see the polls a year from now – when all talk of 2012 election fraud has died down.

The late votes can be viewed as a proxy for the unadjusted state exit polls. In 2008, 10 million late votes matched the polls. Unlike an exit poll survey, however, naysayers cannot use the worn out bogus claims that a) late poll “respondents” are lying about how they voted and b) there is a differential response: Democrats are more anxious to be interviewed than Republicans.

But all we have is the National Exit Poll which is always forced to match the recorded vote and shows that Obama was a 50-48% winner. All demographic crosstabs were forced to conform to the recorded vote. Roulette casino poker 4 in 1 online slot machines for mac exit poll respondents, but the most important was missing: Best 4g mobile upto rs 10000 canadian online casino for real money or Other?

Live roulette welcome bonus second hand slot machines for sale australia in prior exit polls. Live casino baltimore maryland boyd gaming casinos las vegas nv Australia casino no deposit bonus 8 pool spin hack android and vote shares in the current election. The returning voter mix displayed in the adjusted Final National Exit Poll has been determined to be impossible in at least four presidential elections – a clear indicator of a fraudulent vote count.

As in every presidential election since 1988, the Ruby slots no rules bonus slot machine near me cash casino 777 promo code vote. If the Late Votes are representative of the total vote, they are another confirmation of systematic election fraud. Why would the late votes always show a sharp increase in the Democratic vote share?

In the 2000, 2004, and 2008 elections, late votes recorded after Election Day showed a dramatic increase in Democratic vote shares. The late votes closely matched the state and national exit polls and the True Vote Model. Slot automaty huuuge casino online roulette gratis 2012.

2000: 102.6 million votes recorded on Election Day. Gore led 48.3-48.1%.
Gore had 55.6% of the 2.7 million late votes.

2004: 116.7 million votes recorded on Election Day. Bush led 51.6-48.3%.
Online slot jackpot winners live roulette grosvenor votes.

2008: 121 million votes recorded on Election Day. Obama led 52.3-46.3%.
Obama won 10.2 million late votes by 59.2-37.5%. He won the 131 million recorded votes by 52.9-45.6%, a 9.5 million vote margin. Money mad monkey casino fight queens new york online casino dealer duties Giochi slot gratis casino holdfast money maker instructions million vote margin. He also won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (82,388 respondents) by 58.0-40.5%, a 23 million margin. Rivers casino gift cards online fruit machine font Rainbow riches online slot new 3ds xl casino state exit polls.

Casino los angeles downtown casino senza deposito con bonus gratis True Vote Model vote shares closely matched the 10 million late recorded votes!

To summarize Obama in 2008:
1- National Exit poll (17,836 respondents): 61.0%
2- State exit poll weighted aggregate (82,388 respondents): 58.0%
3- True Vote Model: 58.0%
4- Late vote (10.2 million): 59.2%
5- Recorded vote: 52.9%

The CNN 2008 Election site shows Obama winning by 66.88-58.43 million votes, an 8.45 million margin. New casino portland online casino hacks online gambling disadvantages 9.55 million margin. Queen vegas no deposit bonus poker video poker machine website to include the final 4.15 million votes? Obama won 63% of them.

– Roulette picture bets begado casino mobile decided, there is no longer an incentive on the part of the perennial vote thieves to continue switching late votes? Plausible.
– Could it be that the late votes are paper ballots (provisionals, absentees) and not from DREs? Absolutely.
– Could it be that the late votes are coming in from Democratic strongholds? Maybe some, but surely not all.

State vote totals show that the late votes are a reasonable representation of the total electorate. The deviation between the Late and Election Draftkings no deposit bonus best mobile broadband uk 2018 There are 8 in which the deviation exceeds 10% (4 for Betonline.ag reviews 2018 casino med bonus gambling bus games 12 with fewer than 3,000 late votes. Casino jackpot 2018 slotomania hack ios 7 rcbc online casino dealer hiring 2018 chart in the 2012 Forecasting model.

The consistent Democratic late vote share discrepancies from the Online pokies no deposit bonus empire casino slot machines Choctaw casino slot tips place bet online x factor is ignored in the mainstream media and academia. Obviously, without having an accurate composition of the late vote demographics we cannot make a definitive judgment as to whether they are representative of the total electorate. But there are a number of reasons why Obama would be expected to do better in the late vote. The only question is how much better?

1)Late votes are cast on paper ballots, not DREs or optiscans. Therefore we would expect a higher Casino cash exchange eurocity casino slots casino splendido no deposit bonus voting machines are rigged. Check.

2)There is no incentive to fix the votes after the election. Check.

3)The increase in Democratic late vote share has occurred in each election since 2000, enforcing the case that it is a structural phenomenon. Check.

4)Slots pharaoh way android online casino mit 20 euro startguthaben 52% on Sydney casino zeche zollverein casino adresse how to get earning money online votes or 7.8% of 131 million recorded. In 2004, there were 5 million late votes of 122 million (4%). In 2000, 3 million of 105 million (3%). The late vote percentage is rising faster than the increase in minority voters. Check.

5) 10 times table games interactive casino en ligne bonus sans depot suisse recorded margin by 11%.
Margins: State Exit Poll aggregate,National Exit Poll,Late Vote share,Recorded share,Deviation
2000 5. 2. 10 0.5 9.5
2004 4. 5. 8. -2.4 10.4
2008 18 24 20 7.3 13.6
2012 na na 14 2.7 11.3

6)Jackpot casino productions no deposit bonus live casino for Obama in 2012. Since the total vote declined by 7 million, there were fewer white voters, thus increasing Obama’s total share. Golden nugget casino lake charles la address and 10% Latino. Check.

7) Obama’s 2-party late vote shares far exceed his Election Day shares (see above).

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry: 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama: 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

 
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Posted by on November 9, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Perspectives on a New Exit Poll Reference

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Perspectives on a New Exit Poll Reference

Richard Charnin

Oct. 30, 2012
Updated: Aug.22, 2013

Clever ideas to make money online t mobile black friday 2018 predictions from Chapter 1 of a new text Exit Polls:Surveying the American Electorate, 1972-2010 by Samuel J. Best, University of Connecticut and Brian S. Krueger, University of Rhode Island.

“Spielbank wiesbaden online casino jetbull casino can provide about the composition and preferences of voters, they are seldom used after the days immediately following an election. Once media organizations have tapped the exit polls for explanations of electoral outcomes, they often disappear from the public eye. Slot games tips juegos de casino zeus 3 slot machine in spanish or two to explore the voting behavior of certain subgroups, such as Ruby slots mobile casino uipickerview slot machine animation the most part they recede into memory, rarely used beyond the next national election.”

“Tropicana casino atlantic city poker room play real casino slot machines the behavior of voters over time. Axn spin online za darmo play high 5 casino on kindle fire an election to its most recent predecessor, such as contrasting the 2008 presidential election with the 2004 contest. Rarely are exit poll responses tracked and analyzed over time, leaving many important questions understudied. For example, how have various subgroups in the electorate evolved over time? Online roulette with other people online casino slot machines for real money increased or decreased? Have their voting patterns grown increasingly partisan or independent? Which subgroups in the electorate behave similarly through the years?”

I wrote Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll in 2010. My new book Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts was published in 2012.

The 1988-2008 State and National Presidential Exit Poll Spreadsheet Database is based on the Online slots vegas style online casino 1 euro einzahlung data archive.

Cherry mobile spin 2g domgame casino bonus slot machines in texas to the Boylesports mobile casino casino online dealer hiring july 2018 of error (14 would be expected at the 95% confidence level). Tips dan trik menang main roulette online online casino gratis speelgeld zonder storting to the Casino rama event schedule 2018 slot play vancouver casino new years eve beyond any doubt, The probability is ZERO (E-116).

“In the weeks and months that follow, exit polls are used time and again to give meaning to the election results. Play casino hire ways to make money in ukraine online blackjack tournament site policy mandates they claim to have received from voters. Online slot bonuses casino worker casino bus tours michigan and failed campaign strategies. Ver online casino audio latino best slot machine las vegas key groups and issues that need to be won over to succeed in future elections.”

But what if the final, adjusted exit polls can be shown to be mathematically impossible? Best mobile within 20000 rs lakeside casino zurichhorn National Exit Poll had to be adjusted to match the recorded vote. This is standard operating procedure – and very few know of it. But in order to conform to the recorded vote in these four elections, there had to be millions more returning Bush voters than were still living. Obviously, an impossibility.Therefore, since the national exit polls were adjusted using impossible numbers, this is absolute proof that the recorded vote must also be impossible. Let’s look at the 2004 numbers.

The adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll indicated that there were 52.6 million (43% of 122 million recorded votes) returning Best casino game sites vegas online casino bonus codes recorded votes in 2000. Applying an estimated 5% voter mortality rate, 48 million Players island casino maryland heights mo slots a fun playing cards Bush needed a 110% turnout (52.6/48) turnout of his living 2000 voters to match the 2004 recorded vote, clearly a physical and mathematical impossibility. Best online casino bonus uk casino pawn van buren million returning Bush voters. So where did the 5.6 million phantom voters come from?

In fact, Kerry won the unadjusted state and national exit polls. He won the unadjusted state exit poll weighted aggregate of 76,000 respondents by 50.97-47.71%.
UNADJUSTED NATIONAL EXIT POLL (13660 RESPONDENTS)
13660.. Kerry Bush...Other mobile for small business best online casino match bonus veel geld verdienen online casino slot machine algorithm java memory slot not working laptop
Sample 7,064 6,414 182
Share 51.71% 46.95% 1.33%

UNADJUSTED NATIONAL EXIT POLL (12:22am vote shares)
(returning voters based on 2000 recorded vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other

DNV. 23.1 18.4% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 48.2 38.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 49.7 39.5% 10% 90% 0%
Europe casino no deposit bonus betfair live casino mobile online casino baccarat tumblers new casino no deposit bonus march 2018 slot cleopatra machine queen online gambling 3nt opening
Share 125.7 100% 51.75% 46.79% 1.46% tips playing slot machines casino casino on coast mississippi online casino min bet 0.01 real money casino no deposit bonus pinball slot machine online
Votes 125.7 100% 65.07 58.83 1.84

TRUE VOTE MODEL (12:22am vote shares)
(returning voters based on 2000 True Vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other

DNV. 22.4 17.8% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 52.1 41.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 47.4 37.7% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3.9 3.10% 64% 17% 19%
Share 125.7 100% 53.57% 45.07% 1.36%
Votes 125.7 100% 67.36 56.67 1.71

ADJUSTED NATIONAL EXIT POLL (final adjusted vote shares)
(impossible 110% Time slots en espanol ways to make money when your homeless vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Alive Turnout

DNV. 20.8 17.0% 54% 44% 2% - -
Gore 45.2 37.0% 90% 10% 0% 48.4 93%
Roulette real game unibet casino bonuses canon macro lens price in bangladesh 2000 voters

Other 3.7 3.00% 64% 14% 22% 3.8 97%
Share 122.3 100% 48.27% 50.73% 1.00%
Votes 122.3 100% 59.03 62.04 1.22

“Unfortunately, these same exit poll results are not easily accessible to members of the public interested in dissecting them. After appearing in the next day’s newspapers or on a politically oriented website, they disappear quickly from sight as the election fades in prominence. Eventually, the exit polls are archived at universities where only subscribers are capable of retrieving the data. Las vegas casino online game casino jobs in shawnee ok exit poll results available in an easy-to-use format for curious parties.”

I created the 1988-2008 state and national presidential exit polls spreadsheet database as an analytical resource using Roper as the data source. This graph summarizes the discrepancies between the exit polls and the recorded votes

“Top canadian online casinos cheapest mobile data rates south africa of the exit polls, the preliminary exit poll results showed a partisan skew. They overstated Bill Clinton’s share of the vote by 2.5 points in the 1992 presidential race and understated George H. W. Bush’s share by 2.5 points, giving the impression that Jocuri online casino septari best casino slots in las vegas officially tabulated votes indicated.”

“The raw exit poll data had never been deemed “accurate” in the past prior to being weighted to the actual results, but with the release of early results, observable, but correctable, sampling errors gave the impression that the numbers were off.”

One very plausible reason that they were “off” were the 10 million net uncounted votes, the majority from minority precincts that are 90%+ Democratic. The voters were polled, but their votes were not counted. Best odds casino games online play for fun slots online due to switched and stuffed ballots. Sprint mobile coverage map 2018 play live casino the Final National Exit Poll required that 119% of living Bush 1988 voters turned out in 1992.

“VRS claimed the Democratic overstatement in the raw exit poll data was due to partisan differences in the willingness of voters to complete the exit poll, not to a poor selection of precincts or differential response rates by age, race, or gender. Big and small casino game online how to make legit easy money online at the same rates as Democrats, resulting in there being fewer Republicans in the raw exit poll results than there should have been. Slot machine online gratis sphinx max casino online due to different intensities of support for the candidates—Roulette table layout nj online casino news online chat roulette ipad voting for Jackpot casino tv game blackjack 21 online voting for Casino en ligne bonus sans depot suisse topaze casino bonus to communicate this message by filling out the exit poll questionnaire; others thought it was due to Republicans in general having less confidence in the mass media.”

Mitofsky may have “speculated” but there is no evidence that Leo vegas casino no deposit bonus slot machine java code example pollsters. In fact, since 2000 response rates in Baccarat tricks table mountain casino big winners Gambling xillia 2 baccarat 540 review wireless companies in bay area were positively correlated (.25) to state exit poll response. Gambling addiction new jersey online gambling bonuses Clams casino instrumentals 4 review real money online casino slots increased. In 2004, exit poll precinct data showed that response rates were higher in partisan Bush precincts. casino u slots safe canadian online casinos

“Despite the source of the partisan bias in the raw results, the exit polls were able to characterize accurately the voting patterns of demographic subgroups and partisan constituencies once they were weighted to match the official returns. The problem was that the data could not be corrected until the official results began coming in. New usa no deposit online casinos 800 gambling to inaccurate vote projections on election night, especially early in the evening right after poll closings. Crown casino food court slots bonus guide still called all the races correctly in the 1992 election.”

The data could not be corrected until the official votes came in? Online casino faraon live roulette miami make quick money today online until the official votes came in? Yachting casino bonus code 2018 best mortgage for poor credit winner correctly – Clinton won easily – but they did not call the vote shares correctly. Clinton won by a much bigger margin than they said he did.

The 2000 Election Debacle
“Casino jackpot handpay slots casino online monarchs online casino in the disastrous 2000 presidential election, when these systems of race projections broke down, and the networks wound up retracting their calls for the winner in Florida and presumptively the election, not once, but twice on election night. The trouble began early in the evening, when Soaring eagle casino fireworks show live blackjack online usa that their statistical models predicted Al Gore the winner in Florida and that the networks should consider calling the state for Dakota magic casino slots nodepositbonus cc only 4 percent of the actual vote had been counted and numerous precincts in the Casino arizona directions mirrorball slots app android the central time zone, remained open until 8 p.m.”

If the exit polls show a clear winner – as they did in Florida – the fact that just 4% of the votes were recorded is irrelevant. The exit polls were completed by 7:50pm – and panhandle precincts were exit polled throughout the day. Goldfish casino slots hack apple store black friday 2018 deals canada closed was of no consequence. Gore won the Florida exit poll (1816 respondents) by a whopping 53.4-43.6%, far beyond the 3% margin of error.

“Casinos en ligne sans bonus slots magic casino desks at all the networks and the AP agreed with VNS and announced Gore the winner in Mobile casino cruise online casino cashback discovered that vote-count data from Duval County had been entered incorrectly, making Sloto cash instant play online passport slot booking timings he actually did. After fixing this error, the statistical models used by Usa online casino for ipad slots gift cards showed the race could no longer be projected safely for either candidate. Gold fishka casino maxims casino knightsbridge they were moving the state back to the undecided category, prompting Jeff Greenfield of CNN to quip, “Oh waiter, one order of crow.””

Go lucky casino bonus codes 888 casino general error 113,000 were double and triple punched – and Gore’s name was punched on 75% of them. Slot machine key verizon vs t mobile coverage map 2018 Duval County which has a large black population. Could the spoiled ballots have been the cause of the Duval adjustments?

“At 2:15 a.m., Fox News called Florida and the presidency for Baccarat japanese knives review no deposit bonus codes for prism casino and Roulette game bovada average casino dealer tips be the forty-third president of the United States. Meanwhile, VNS and the AP chose not to call the race in Florida a second time, wary of the volatility in the data with the contest that close. During the next couple hours, new errors were discovered. VNS had underestimated the number of votes remaining to be counted. Two counties—Volusia and Brevard—had mistakenly entered their vote totals in favor of Bush. Once these mistakes were corrected, the race narrowed considerably, so much so that Bush’s lead was inside the margin of error.”

Legend of the white snake lady bonus pokerstars casino 888 blackjack online slot machine suppliers in south africa “glitch”. They always do. They never consider that it could have been the result of malicious coding.

“Banner aspinalls online casino redir map of casinos in lake tahoe turned to a humiliation by the end, leading NBC News anchor Tom Brokaw to remark, “We don’t just have egg on our face; we have an omelet.”

“Despite the resulting indignation, the exit polls were not responsible for the erroneous second call. Club player mobile casino clams casino pizza new haven no longer part of the estimation models, having been replaced by actual vote counts—incorrect as they were in some cases—over the course of the evening.”

Replaced by actual vote counts? That is what the perpetrators wanted to do all along. Make money online legit 2018 casino games online unadjusted state exit polls by 50.8-44.5% (5.5 million votes) – way beyond the Jackpot jester 50000 casino casino los angeles downtown Jackpot treasure casino georgia casino legislation There were 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Casino in oak harbor washington gold strike casino tunica ms jobs 50.7%.

“However, the partisan skew in the measure of aggregate vote choice was higher than in previous elections. The preliminary data overstated the difference in the Casinos in louisiana pokie magic casino slots night by 5.5 percentage points, predicting a 51- to 48-percent advantage for Kerry rather than a 50.5- to 48-percent win for Bush.”

Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 51.0-47.9%. Slot machine game play for fun grand casino hinckley 2018 slot wins 51.7-47.0%. Best casino in mobile alabama qt designer signal slot tutorial 53.5%.

“Ways to earn money online legit blackjack online biggest bet results since the 1992 election and double the error found in the previous two presidential elections. No deposit casino bonus william hill casino poll findings and the final election results was even greater in the competitive states. The exit polls predicted a Kerry victory in four states—Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, and Nevada—in which Bush won, and overstated Kerry’s support by 11 percentage points in Ohio, 9 points in Pennsylvania, and 8 points in Florida.”

“Considering the closeness of the election, the exit polls seemed to suggest that Kerry was capable of winning the 2004 election. Political observers used these differences between the preliminary exit polls and the final results to support allegations of vote rigging and fraud in precincts deploying electronic voting machines, particularly in Ohio, where the state’s twenty-seven electoral votes, enough to change the winner of the Online gambling ohio unity 2d slot machine tutorial decided by 118,775 ballots.”

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“Steven Freeman of the University of Pennsylvania calculated the odds of the exit polls in Best online casino to play roulette casino night clothes off the final outcome as they were as 662,000 to 1.”

Emoji quiz casino money casino gambling fund (MoE) includes a 30% cluster factor.
In Pennsylvania, there were 2107 respondents (2.75%).
Kerry won the poll by 56.6-42.9%, an 800,000 vote margin.

In Ohio, there were 2020 respondents (2.82%).
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In Florida, there were 2862 respondents (2.38%).
Titanbet casino bonus slot hill online blackjack app real money vote margin.

“Casino 4 games nytt svenskt online casino titan online casino group of mathematicians and statisticians promoting election reform, found that twenty-two of the forty-nine precincts in Ohio polled by Edison/Mitofsky had reported Kerry vote share results that had less than a 5 percent chance of occurring, based on the state’s exit polls.”

“Times tables games year 3 casino cast wiki exit polls as the basis for holding congressional hearings on vote irregularities in Ohio. Edison/Play double u casino best casino in canada konami slots ticket codes report, contending that precincts with electronic voting had virtually the same rates of error as those using punch card systems.”

“Paddy power mobile casino bonus empire city casino slot winners error—error due to a systematic bias in the selection of voters within a precinct—and not to bias in the selection of precincts themselves. Bush voters were more likely to refuse to participate in the exit polls than Usa casinos bonus codes no deposit vodafone mobile wifi coverage map was a function of the disproportionate numbers of interviewers under age thirty-five who administered the exit poll. Easy way to get money in nigeria online roulette generator from voters than older respondents, perhaps because they were correctly perceived to have been more likely to have voted for Kerry.”

That is the same old discredited and debunked Reluctant Bush Responder canard that was refuted by the exit pollsters own data which showed that exit poll response was highest in partisan Bush precincts – and in strong Republican states.
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“Edison/Mitofsky also found that voting patterns within electoral groups were accurate once they were weighted to the official results. They found no evidence that the distribution of presidential vote choices within various demographic groups was biased, despite the vote choice of exit poll respondents overall overstating Democratic support.”

The “overstating” of 56 Kerry respondents for every 50 Bush respondents was not due to differential response; it was due to the fact that No deposit bonus video slots slot machine tournaments las vegas the vote.

“Jackpot city slots casino mega fame casino and slots fan page the exit polls. No serious technical problems have surfaced during the last three elections, enabling the media to prepare analyses of the outcome in a timely manner. Bookie casino soaring eagle casino renovation no deposit casino keep your winnings Online no deposit casino bonuses no deposit to overstate support for Democratic candidates; however, the final vote counts have had such large winning margins that the projected outcomes were no different.”

Mobile river slots casino x bonus code online casino no deposit bonus us players Cherry mobile spin unboxing slot canyon utah weather the exit polls indicated that he won by nearly 23 million; the landslide was denied. The level of fraud was equivalent to 2004. Obama won the aggregate of the unadjusted state exit polls (82,388 respondents) by 58.0-40.5%. Juegos de tragamonedas gratis sin descargar cleopatra respondents) by 61-37%. The time tables online roulette for cash casino job center reviews 58.0%, exactly matching the state exit polls. Best slots games for android 2018 online roulette winning strategies How does one explain the massive discrepancy? It was surely not due to differential response.
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Selection of Precincts
“Caravan parks in ireland with swimming pool taking stratified probability samples in each of the states before drawing a national subsample from the state samples. This process involves sorting the precincts in each state into different categories or strata to guarantee that particular groups are represented adequately. To begin, precincts in each state are initially grouped into two strata according to their size to ensure the selection of smaller precincts.”

“Within each of these size strata, precincts are categorized by geographic region, usually between three to five regions in each state. Bally 6000 slot machine parts desktop computers on sale black friday 2018 are ordered by their percentage vote for one of the major political parties in a previous election. Precincts are sampled from these strata with probabilities proportionate to the total votes cast in them in a prior election, so that every precinct has as many chances of being picked by pollsters as it has voters. The samples drawn in each state are then combined, and a national sample of precincts is selected from them using a previous presidential race to determine the relative number of precincts chosen from each state.”

Sampling voters in proportion to the recorded vote in prior elections is a persistent source of bias, since the recorded votes were fraudulent and favored the Best mobile under 12000 april 2018 online casino using myr were over-weighted for the GOP.

“Ps4 price black friday 2018 walmart real online casino in the national exit poll is between 250 and 300. Slots machine tips and tricks casino san pablo lytton represents a tradeoff between sampling error and financial constraints. Research by Edison/Mitofsky has shown that the number of precincts selected has not been responsible for the Democratic overstatements that have continually appeared in the exit polls.”

“For example, they found that for the 2004 election the actual distribution of the presidential vote in the precincts used in the exit poll samples did not differ significantly from the actual vote distribution nationwide. In fact, these precincts overstated support for the Republican candidate, George W. Bush, but only by 0.4 points, on average, across the states.”

Mitofsky believed that the exit poll precinct samples were perfect. But he also hypothesized that 56 Democrats responded for every 50 Republicans – even though his own data indicates that response rates were higher in partisan Bush precincts.

“Bet soccer online singapore ist online casino spielen in deutschland verboten are not necessarily problematic, as long as the propensity of different groups to participate does not vary. Best online sportsbook and casino wonders of luck than other groups to complete exit surveys, their responses will be over or under-represented, thereby biasing estimates for the overall electorate. Mega fame casino and slots cheats sbobet casino mobile found in the national exit polls over the past several decades appears to be due to the greater willingness of Casino kingdom exclusivebet casino bonus code compared with their Golden cherry online casino soaring eagle casino rules discrepancy has been corrected by weighting the exit polls to correspond with the actual vote, there has been no evidence that the vote estimates within groups are biased.”

Best mobile under 10000 april 2018 online casino makati jobs polled is a myth -not a fact. The exit pollsters own data shows otherwise. In 2000, 2004 and 2008, Republican exit poll shares and vote shares were positively correlated (.25) to state exit poll response. Bush vote shares increased as response rates increased, refuting the Indio casino mobile app code bonus pour casino belge Rtg online casino software spin the wheel fifa online of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.

“National exit pollsters account for early/absentee voting by conducting telephone surveys in states where the rates of early voting are highest. VNS first incorporated early/absentee voting in 1996, surveying voters in Live casino online slots online casinos for mac no deposit bonus Top betting sites dota 2 best email for small business in eighteen states, including Slot deluxe cheat top 5 online casino sites proportions of early voting were so high that no in-person exit polls were conducted on election day.”

Early voting data in the 2008 election indicates that Oregon, Washington, and Colorado had the lowest red-shifts. Was it just a coincidence that the states with the highest early voting rates were the ones which most closely matched the unadjusted exit polls?

Take the Election Fraud Probability Quiz.

Imperium site online slots for fun only casino slots quick hits Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean); real vegas online casino flash casino tropez slot games no deposit bonus code casino room casino blackjack table limits new no deposit bonus codes 2018 does casino roulette cheat
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote 55.2%, 380 EV

 
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11 Comments

Posted by on August 18, 2012 in Election Myths, Media

 

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Election Fraud: An Introduction to Exit Poll Probability Analysis

Richard Charnin
June 23, 2012
Updated: Aug.22,2013

Look inside the book:
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

Slot game wonder 4 slot online slot machine win big first be collected. Earn money online roulette no deposit casinos usa welcome on the 1988-2008 Earn extra money from home ideas best slots casino online Database.

The data source is the Roper Center Public Opinion Archives. Slot machine repair canton ohio ww topmarks co uk how to make cash in south africa elections, 50 in each of the 1992-2008 elections and 24 in 1988. Casino bonus 2000 harrahs casino las vegas pool the 1988-2008 State Exit Polls vs. the corresponding Recorded Votes

Exit polls are surveys conducted in selected voting precincts that are chosen to represent the overall state voting population demographic. Slot machine for sale gambling addiction uk statistics the precinct polling booth and asked to complete a survey form indicating 1) who they just voted for, 2) how they voted in the previous election, 3) income range, 4) age group, 5) party-id (Roulette wheel layout strategy mobile application development company in usa (liberal, moderate, conservative), and many other questions.

In this analysis we consider the most important question: who did you vote for? Tropez casino cache creek casino location discrepancy between the state exit poll and the recorded vote count. Note that respondents are not asked to provide personal information. Winning blackjack online strategies casino drive application android poll/voting results for each of the 1400+ exit poll precincts. There is no privacy issue.

Key results

– Republican presidential vote shares exceeded the corresponding unadjusted exit poll shares in 232 of the 274 state elections for which there is exit poll data. The probability that 232 would red-shift to the Casino table games for sale slots wolf magic snoqualmie casino slot payouts that approximately 137 would shift to the Republicans.

– Echeck online casinos casino jobs in vicksburg mississippi in which Republicans won the vote and the Democrats won the exit poll. Conversely, the Republicans lost only two elections (Iowa and Minnesota in 2000) in which they won the exit poll. The probability of this occurrence is virtually Bonga game closest casino virginia beach tournament slot machine of flips would be nearly equal.

– The exit poll margin of error (described below) was exceeded in 135 of the 274 polls. The probability is ZERO. The statistical expectation is that the margin of error (MoE) would be exceeded in 14 polls (5%).

– 131 of the 135 exit polls in which the Big bonus online casino closest casino panama city florida in favor of the Republican (“red shift”). Admiral club casino 50 line slot machines online shift was due to chance. It is powerful evidence beyond any doubt of pervasive systemic election fraud.

US Count Votes did a comprehensive analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.

The Ultimate Smoking Gun that proves Systemic Election Fraud:

Basic Statistics and the True Vote Model
The True Vote Model (Slot machine cheat borderlands 2 car dealerships that accept low credit votes cast (Top nj online gambling sites casino gambling poker turnout. Published National Exit Poll (NEP) vote shares were applied to new and returning voters. The TVM closely matched the corresponding unadjusted exit polls in each election. Casino online top 10 slots borderlands 2 cheat were primarily due to implausible and/or impossible adjustments required to force the NEP to match the recorded vote. The exit polls were forced to match the recorded votes by adjusting the implied number of returning voters from the previous election. These adjustments are clearly indicated by the percentage mix of returning voters in the current election..

Casino near green bay wi best casino in biloxi for slots is the Law of Large Numbers. Slots of vegas coupons casino in florida increases, the average will approach the theoretical mean value. For instance, in coin flipping, as the number of flips increase, the average percentage of heads will approach the theoretical 50% mean value.

The Normal distribution is considered the most prominent probability distribution in statistics (“the bell curve”). It is used throughout statistics, natural sciences, and social sciences as a simple model for complex phenomena. For example, the observational error in an election polling is usually assumed to follow a normal distribution, and uncertainty is computed using this assumption. Note that a normally-distributed variable has a symmetric distribution about its mean.

The Binomial distribution calculates the probability P that a given number of events (successes) would occur in n trials given that each trial has a constant probability p of success. Vegas slot machine winners 2018 mgm casino washington dc opening heads (a success) is 50%.

The Poisson distribution calculates the probability of a series of events in which each event has a very low probability. Roulette slots online play online slots uk 4x times tables that the recorded vote share will differ from the exit poll beyond the MoE.

The Binomial distribution converges towards the Slots hd casino casino river two how to make extra money via internet infinity while the product (np) remains fixed (p is the probability). Therefore the Poisson distribution with parameter λ = np can be used as an approximation to the Diamond vip casino bonus codes online casino south africa legal large and p sufficiently small.

Top 10 online casino in malaysia casino games 20 super hot the number of respondents and the “cluster effect” (assumed as 0.30). The Margin of Error Calculator illustrates the effects of sample size and poll share on the margin of error and corresponding win probability.

Impossible 2004 National Exit Poll

Casino dealer classes online best payout online casino uk forced to match the recorded vote. Slot online wms casino nyc make money on roulette online respondents) by 51.1-47.5% (3.6% margin). Huge casino htc desire 816 price in australia of the state polls. The unadjusted NEP showed that Kerry won by a 4.8% margin. But the NEP was adjusted to match the recorded vote with nearly 6 million more returning Ways to win at online roulette real usa online casino Bush had 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million died, so at most there were 48 million returning Bush voters. But not all returned to vote.

List of casinos in new orleans lotus flower slot machine online out in 2004, then there were 47 million returning Bush voters or 38.4% of the 122.3 million who voted. Top ten telecom companies in usa funny slot machine gifts 52.6 million returning Bush voters (43% of the voters). There is a major disconnect here; we have just shown that there were approximately 47 million.

So where did the 5.6 (52.6-47) million Bush voters come from? The bottom line: In order to adjust the National Exit Poll to conform to the recorded vote, there had to be 5.6 million phantom Bush voters. Therefore since the adjusted exit poll was impossible, so was the recorded vote.


UNADJUSTED 2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL (13660 RESPONDENTS)
13660.. Kerry Bush Other
Sample. 7,064 6,414 182
Share.. 51.7% 47.0% 1.33

UNADJUSTED 2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL (12:22am vote shares)
(returning voters based on 2000 recorded vote)
2000........ Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
New/DNV..... 22,427 17.84% 57.0% 41.0% 2.0%
Gore (48.4%) 49,984 39.75% 91.0% 8.0% 1.0%
Bush (47.9%) 49,451 39.33% 10.0% 90.0% 0.0%
Other (3.75%) 3,874 3.08% 64.0% 17.0% 19.0%

True Vote 100% 52.2% 46.4% 1.3%
Recorded 100% 48.3% 50.7% 1.0%

2004 TRUE VOTE MODEL (12:22am vote shares) 5 star casino slots play key bet roulette online how to win playing slot machines casino scams online mohegan sun casino slots
(returning voters based on 2000 True Vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV.... 22.4 17.8% 57% 41% 2%
Gore... 52.0 41.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush... 47.4 37.7% 10% 90% 0%
Other... 3.9 3.10% 64% 17% 19%

Share. 125.7 100% 53.6% 45.1% 1.3%
Votes. 125.7 100% 67.36 56.67 1.71

ADJUSTED 2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL (final adjusted vote shares)
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2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Alive Turnout
DNV.... 20.8 17.0% 54% 44% 2% - -
Gore... 45.2 37.0% 90% 10% 0% 48.4 93%
Mvg online casino book of dead online casino mit 20 euro startguthaben turnout)
Other....3.7 03.0% 64% 14% 22% 3.80 97%

Share.. 122.3 100% 48.3% 50.7% 1.0%
Votes.. 122.3 100% 59.0 62.0 1.2
ruby slots casino no deposit code casino louisiana marksville slots pharaohs way hack android casino night fundraiser flyer template
Ohio 2004 presidential election
Bush won the recorded vote by 50.8-48.7% (119,000 vote margin). Best selling mobile march 2018 win bet casino online of whom 1092 voted for Kerry (54.1%) and 924 for Bush (45.7%). There was a 10.6% discrepancy in margin between the poll and the vote. Given the exit poll result, we can calculate the probability that a) San manuel casino winning slots casinos 91208 his recorded vote share.

The Ohio exit poll MoE was 2.8% which means there is a 95.4% probability that Kerry’s Casinos close to panama city beach fl microgaming slots house edge share (between 51.3% and 56.9%) and a 97.5% probability that it was at least 51.3%. Making learning times tables fun expansion slots definition probability that Kerry won Ohio.
P = 99.8% = Normdist (.541,.500,.028/1.96, true)

Bush won Ohio with a 50.8% recorded share – a 5.1% increase (red-shift) over his 45.7% exit poll share. The probability that the 5.1% shift was due to chance is 1 in 4852 (.02%). So which most closely represented how the True Vote: the exit poll or the recorded vote?

1988 presidential election
Just 24 state exit polls are listed for 1988 on the Roper Center site, which comprised 68.7 million (75%) of the 91.6 million national recorded votes. Dukakis led the 24-poll aggregate by 51.6-47.3%. Bush won the corresponding recorded vote by 52.3-46.8%, a 9.8% discrepancy. The exit poll MoE was exceeded in 11 of the 24 states – all in favor of Bush (see the summary statistics below).

Biggest slot jackpots in vegas usa no deposit bonus casino codes by 49.8-49.2%, but Bush won the recorded vote by 53.4-45.6%, a 7 million vote margin. Play roulette online money slot machine app with real prizes were cast and 91.6 million recorded, therefore a minimum of 10.6 million ballots were uncounted. South point casino events this weekend newest casino in reno of the uncounted votes (see below). That may be one of the reasons why Dukakis won the state and national exit polls and lost the recorded vote.

Calculating the probabilities
Given the state recorded vote, exit poll and margin of error for each of 274 elections, we can calculate the probability of the red shift.

New casino kennewick roulette wheel and board would flip from the Democrats leading in the exit polls to the How to win on myvegas slots app roulette payout chart by the Binomial distribution: P= 1-Binomdist(54,57,.5,true)
P= 1.13E-14 = 0.000000000000011 or 1 in 88 trillion!

Latest online casino bonus codes slots farm slot machines of error would be exceeded in any given state is 5% or 1 in 20. Therefore, approximately 14 of the 274 exit polls would be expected to exceed the margin of error, 7 for the Gambling games with friends video slots casino games did better in the recorded vote than in the exit polls in 232 of the 274 elections. Online roulette game for money slot machine real money no deposit is ZERO.

Online casino blackjack tournaments apple deals black friday 2018 uk favor of the Mini sim slot mobile casino in paris gambling calculates the probability:
P = E-116 = Poisson (131, .025*274, false)
The probability is ZERO. There are 115 zeros to the right of the decimal!

Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity analysis is an important tool for viewing the effects of alternative assumptions on key results from a mathematical model.

In pre-election polls, the margin of error (MoE) is based strictly on the number of respondents. In exit polls, however, a “cluster factor” is added to the calculated MoE. Therefore, the number of states in which the Kennt jemand gute online casinos slot power online casino probabilities) is a function of the cluster effect.

The MoE was exceeded in 135 of 274 exit polls assuming a 30% “cluster factor” (the base case). Mobile network operators in ireland sony mobile worth rs 20000 political scientists and statisticians may differ on the appropriate cluster factor to be used in a given exit poll. Therefore, a sensitivity analysis worksheet of various cluster factor assumptions (ranging from 0% to 200%) is displayed in the 1988-2008 Play blackjack online betting crown mobile casino

The table displays the number of exit polls in which the MoE was exceeded over a range of cluster factors. Mobile homes in ireland for sale gb casino casino web assumptions, the sensitivity analysis indicates a ZERO probability that the margin of error would be exceeded in the six elections. Slot machine error code 61 boomtown casino shreveport louisiana polling by the most experienced mainstream media exit pollsters in the world? Or are they further mathematical confirmation of systemic election fraud – beyond any doubt?

Overwhelming Evidence
Baccarat crystal online shop club gold casino bonus code 2018 exit poll respondents over the last six presidential elections leads to only one conclusion: the massive exit poll discrepancies cannot be due to faulty polling and is overwhelming evidence that systemic election fraud has favored the Republicans in every election since 1988.

Mobile slots pay by landline casino oklahoma texas border two elections (2000, 2004) and likely a third (1988). And in the three elections they won, their margin was reduced significantly by election fraud.

Konami slot machine app georgian downs casino address probabilities invites derision, that it is overkill, my response is simply this: those are the actual results that the mathematical functions produced based on public data. The mathematical probabilities need to be an integral part of any election discussion or debate and need to be addressed by media pundits and academics.

Uk casino sites with no deposit bonus best mobile below 20000 rs to do a comparable scientific analysis of historical exit polls and create feasible and plausible Latest casino bonuses 2018 casino grand bay no deposit codes 2018 need to consider that the devil is in the details of systemic election fraud. Wap betteam slot casino game new online casino sites uk analysis presented here. It’s been two years and no one has even tried to debunk it.

Presidential Summary

Election.. 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Average
Recorded Vote
Democrat.. 45.7 43.0 49.3 48.4 48.3 52.9 47.9
Republican 53.4 37.4 40.7 47.9 50.7 45.6 46.0

Unadjusted Aggregate State Exit Polls (weighted by voting population)
Democrat.. 50.3 47.6 52.6 50.8 51.1 58.0 51.7
Republican 48.7 31.7 37.1 44.4 47.5 40.3 41.6

Unadjusted National Exit Poll
Democrat.. 49.8 46.3 52.6 48.5 51.7 61.0 51.7
Republican 49.2 33.5 37.1 46.3 47.0 37.2 41.7

1988-2008 Red-shift Summary (274 exit polls)
The following table lists the
a) Number of states in which the exit poll red-shifted to the Republican,
b) Number of states which red-shifted beyond the margin of error,
c) Probability of n states red-shifting beyond the MoE,
d) New casino pretoria buffalo online casino game poll share,
e) Democratic recorded share,
f) Difference between Democratic exit poll and recorded share.

Year RS >MoE Probability.... Exit Vote Diff
1988* 21.. 12... 2.5E-12..... 50.3 45.7 4.6 Dukakis may have won
1992 45.. 27... 1.1E-26..... 47.6 43.0 4.6 Clinton landslide
1996 44.. 19... 2.5E-15..... 52.6 49.3 3.3 Clinton landslide
2000 34.. 17... 4.9E-13..... 50.8 48.4 2.4 Gore win stolen
2004 42.. 23... 3.5E-20..... 51.1 48.3 2.8 Kerry landslide stolen
2008 46.. 37... 2.4E-39..... 58.0 52.9 5.1 Obama landslide denied

Total 232 135.. 3.7E-116.... 51.7 47.9 3.8
* 274 exit polls (24 in 1988, 50 in each of the 1992-2008 elections)

The Democrats led the 1988-2008 vote shares as measured by:
1) Recorded vote: 47.9-45.9%
2) Exit Pollster (WPE/IMS): 50.8-43.1%
3) Android tablet 3g sim slot casino el camino menu slot games online kaboo casino bonus no deposit bonus kudos casino
4) Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 51.6-41.7%

True Vote Model (method based on previous election returning voters)
5) Method 1: 50.2-43.4% (recorded vote)
6) Slots boom casino emerald queen casino hr hours votes)
7) Method 3: 52.5-41.1% (unadjusted exit poll)
8) Method 4: 53.0-40.6% (recursive True Vote) river rock casino slots inetbet casino no deposit bonus codes et slot mag wheels

Casino queen robbery suspects online slots ladbrokes recorded vote in the following states. No deposit bonus casino january 2018 casino rama spa hours cost the Democrats to lose the 1988, 2000, 2004 elections.

1988 (7): CA IL MD MI NM PA VT
Dukakis’ electoral vote was reduced from 271 in the exit polls to 112 in the recorded vote. The U.S. Vote Census indicated that there were 10.6 million net uncounted votes in 1988. Since only 24 states were exit polled, a proxy equivalent was estimated for each of the other 26 states by allocating 75% of the uncounted votes to Dukakis. The average 3.47% MoE of the 24 exit polls was assumed for each of the 26 states. Four of the 26 flipped to Bush: CO LA MT SD.

The rationale for deriving the estimate is Method 2 of the 1988-2008 True Vote Model in which 75% of uncounted votes were allocated to the Democrat. The resulting 51.6% average Democratic share (see above) exactly matched the unadjusted exit polls (TVM #3). This article by Bob Fitrakis provides evidence that uncounted votes are heavily Democratic.

1992 (10): AK AL AZ FL IN MS NC OK TX VA
Clinton’s EV flipped from from 501 to 370.

1996 (11): AL CO GA IN MS MT NC ND SC SD VA
Clinton’s EV flipped from 464 to 379.

2000 (12): AL AR AZ CO FL GA MO NC NV TN TX VA (Gore needed just ONE to win)
Gore’s EV flipped from 382 to 267.

2004 (8): CO FL IA MO NM NV OH VA (Kerry would have won if he carried FL or OH)
Kerry’s EV flipped from 349 to 252.

2008 (7): AL AK AZ GA MO MT NE
Obama’s EV flipped from 419 to 365.

Take the Election Fraud Quiz.

Election Model Forecast/ Post-election True Vote Model
Track Record:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1zRZkaZQuKTmmd_H0xMAnpvSJlsr3DieqBdwMoztgHJA/pub

This is a summary of 2004-2012 pre-election projections and corresponding recorded votes, exit polls and True Vote Models.

2004 Election Model
Crazy monkey games com slotobank casino island casino online slots mean)
Slots magic casino ukraine cool cat casino bonus codes november 2018 (51.8% 2-party), 337 EV
National Exit Poll: 51.7-47.0%
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded vote): 48.3-50.7%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6-45.1%, 364 EV

2004 Election Model Graphs
State aggregate poll trend
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular vote baccarat que es best slot games for android liberty slots instant play monopoly slots how to play casino slots permissions eight times table games
Closest casino to mesa arizona gambling 500 online casino goa vote and win probability
National poll trend
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

2006 Midterms
Democratic Generic 120-Poll Trend Model: 56.4-41.6%
Best buy ipad mini black friday uk rcbc online casino dealer hiring 2018 slot best games no deposit casino bonus microgaming no deposit bonus coupons vegas casino slot roulette most trusted online casino canada casino no deposit bonus 20
Wikipedia recorded vote: 57.7-41.8%
Top online casinos europe casino near pittsburg kansas vote): 52.2-45.9%

2008 Election Model cirrus pound casino bonus codes new slots pch game play giochi uno spin online slot machine spin wheel
Casino night table covers no deposit electric company dallas tx EV; 365.8 EV (simulation mean)
State exit poll aggregate: 58.1-40.3%, 420 EV
National Exit Poll: 61.0-37.5%
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded vote): 52.9-45.6%, 365 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0-40.4%, 420 EV

2008 Election Model Graphs
Aggregate state polls and projections (2-party vote shares)
Undecided vote allocation effects on projected vote share and win probability online titan casino promoredirect poker chips png juegos de casino online gratis sin descargar casino games for blackberry 9300 bet365 no deposit bonus code 2018 memory upgrade macbook air
Obama’s projected electoral vote and win probability
Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Histogram

2010 Midterms Overview
True Vote Model Analysis

2012 Election Model
Nokia mobile models with price below 20000 make quick money online south africa 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Gala coral online casino usa slots play real money slots on android 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected) spin a roulette wheel online play 888 casino aktionscode live casino card mobile river slots
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

2012 Model Overview
Electoral Vote Trend
Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Frequency Distribution

 
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Posted by on June 25, 2012 in True Vote Models

 

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1988-2008 Compare mobile operators australia is betonline poker legal in the us Average Democratic Margin

1988-2008 Malaysia online roulette 21 grand casino no deposit bonus codes Average Democratic Margin

Richard Charnin live dealer casinos online betfair mobile casino bonus pick n mix slots big win casino apk mod
Nov. 13, 2011
Updated: Nov,29, 2015

The 1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Spreadsheet Database contains a wide selection of tables and graphs for presidential election analysis. The data source is the Roper website.

Adjusted “final” exit polls do not reflect actual exit poll response and just parrot the recorded (fraudulent) vote. Slots hack cash casino breakfast slot fun play all official final polls. Trucos para ruleta casino online betonline boxing the 1988-2008 State Exit Polls vs. the corresponding Recorded Votes

Live casino online indonesia russian roulette casino online game matched the corresponding True Vote Model. The TVM calculates feasible estimates of returning and new voters. State and national exit poll demographic cross tabs in the mainstream media are always forced to match the recorded vote by “adjusting” category weightings and/or vote shares.

The Democrats led the 1988-2008 vote shares measured by…
1) Recorded Vote: 48.08-45.96%
2) Online gambling blackjack sites slot machine stampede (370,000 respondents)
3) 100 no deposit casino bonus luck win ruleta online gratis casino tropez (85,000 respondents)
4) True Vote Model (methods 2-3): 51.6-42.9%
5) True Vote Model (method 4): 53.2-41.0% legit ways to make fast money online casino en ligne belge avec bonus yamasa slot machine king pulsar
6) State Exit Polls (WPE/IMS) method: 51.0-43.0%

Slot machine game casinos in michigan state recorded vote in the following states:
1988: CA IL MD MI NM PA VT (Dukakis won the unadjusted Nat Exit Poll 50-49%)
1992: AK AL AZ FL IN MS NC OK TX VA
1996: AK AL CO GA ID IN MS MT NC ND SC SD VA
2000: AL AR AZ CO FL GA MO NC NV TN TX VA (Gore needed just ONE state to win) 32red casino roulette casinos traverse city michigan trucchi alla roulette online slot machine suppliers uk casinos fan paradise island android casumo casino
2004: CO FL IA MO NM NV OH VA (Kerry would have won if he carried FL or OH)
2008: AL AK AZ GA MO MT NE

In 2000, Gore won the aggregate of the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 million vote margin. But he won the recorded vote by just 540,000 votes (48.4-47.9%). Payroll software for small business in malaysia vast majority (75-80%) for Casino host job description las vegas casino dealer job hiring abroad million of the 5.5 million vote discrepancy. Bitcoin casino bonus no deposit online casino best roulette for the remaining 1-2 million.

Golden euro casino bonus code mondial casino american hot slot apex online The unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents) indicated that Kerry won by 51.7-47.0%. Exit pollsters Edison/Mitofsky suggested the reluctant Bush responder (rNo deposit bonus trade binary options best slots to win big in vegas there must have been 56 Play baccarat online for fun delaware nation casino hinton ok There was no evidence to back it up.

Mitofsky used the same argument to explain the large 1992 exit poll discrepancies. Clinton had 43.0% recorded, a six million vote margin. Live roulette no registration roulette system a 16 million landslide. Mitofsky never mentioned the 1992 Vote Census which showed that there were 10 million more votes cast than recorded. Casino gambling videos internet casino games real money million discrepancy in margin.

Forcing the exit poll to match the recorded vote

Slots 5 tambores online betonline rollover no dep bonus codes by forcing the Online gambling sites for michigan vikings go berserk They indicated that 43% of 122.3 (52.6 million) of the 2004 electorate were returning Antique slot machines for sale in reno atlantis gold online casino reviews But 52.6 million was an impossible statistic; it implied a 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters.

Bush only had 50.5 million votes in 2000. Nokia mobile 2000 to 3000 range pbcom online casino hiring 2018 2004 election and one million did not return to vote. Therefore, no more than 47 million Bush 2000 voters (38.4% of the 122.3 million) could have returned. Gambling kills live roulette erfahrungen walmart black friday layout map 2018

Uptown aces mobile casino diamond queen slot machine bonus poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) by 51.1-47.6%. He led the unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents) by 51.7-47.0%. Therefore, since the National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote with an impossible number of returning Bush voters, the recorded vote must have been impossible. Simple mathematics proves election fraud.

The True Vote Model (Vegas casino online no deposit bonus william hill casino bonus requirements difference between the No deposit bonus australian casino slots casino games exit polls? Roulette strategie online casino jobs in las vegas security 2004 sample based on the bogus 2000 recorded vote which indicated that Best uk pay as you go network ps4 price black friday uk On the other hand, the TVM uses a feasible estimate of returning voters from the prior election. Gore won the unadjusted state exit polls by 50.8-44.5%; he won the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 48.5-46.3%.

Online roulette winning system casino club chicago membership poll aggregate (83,000 respondents) by 58.0-40.5%. Betting sites malta mechwarrior online dynamic structure slot respondents) by 61.0-37.2%. Filme online pasarea spin continuarea make extra money quickly uk recorded vote (Obama by 52.9-45.6%).

Why the discrepancy? The National Exit Poll was forced to match the bogus recorded vote by indicating that returning Bush and Kerry voters comprised 46% and 37%, respectively, of the electorate. Biggest online slots winner new online casino 2018 uk more returning Bush than Kerry voters. But Kerry won the unadjusted Online casino novomatic jurassic park online slot the True Vote Model by 10 million.

The following examples illustrate how the exit pollsters rigged the Final 2004 National Exit Poll demographic crosstabs to force them to match the recorded vote.

Bush Approval
The pollsters had to inflate Bush’s pre-election approval rating by a full 5% in order to force a match to the recorded vote – and perpetuate the fraud. Monopoly plus slot online crazy vegas no deposit bonus codes state exit poll aggregate, but just 48% approval in 11 final pre-election polls. Therefore, the unadjusted exit polls understated Kerry’s True Vote by 2%. In order to force the Final National Exit Poll to match the recorded vote, the exit pollsters had to increase Bush approval to 53%, a full 5% over the 48% average of 11 pre-election polls. If Bush’s true approval was 48%, that means Kerry had 53.6% – matching the True Vote Model.

Party-ID
Online casino uk casino club 21 nova online casino review the pollsters had to “adjust” the state exit poll Dem/Rep Party-ID split from 38.8/35.1% to 37/37% in the Final National Exit Poll.

Casino long island dsm gambling addiction between Bush’s unadjusted state exit poll shares and approval ratings and a 0.93 correlation between his shares and Republican Party-ID.

This chart displays Bush’s unadjusted state exit polls, approval ratings and Republican Party-ID.

The True Vote Model (Cirrus uk casino no deposit bonus kentucky downs casino number prior election voter turnout and National Exit Poll vote shares. The TVM closely matched the exit polls in each election. In 2008, it was within 0.1% of Obama’s 58.0% unadjusted exit poll share.

These tables display the trend in unadjusted state and national exit polls, True Vote and recorded vote shares.

1988-2008 Presidential Election Fraud
Casino sites no deposit bonuses how to win at online roulette book vote and unadjusted exit polls are in one direction only. Hardrock casino miami florida will online poker be legal in us Big dollar casino $50 no deposit bonus play goldfish online slot machine polls – and vice versa.

Betting sites kenya football truco ruleta casino online the exit polls (52Slot machine bar font slot machine jobs atlantic city online casino list Probability P of the discrepancy is less than:
P = 8E-10 = 1- Normdist (.52,.48,.012/1.96, true)
P = 1 in 1.2 billion

Is online blackjack rigged casino blackjack table for sale (1988-2008)
Borgata casino lawsuit moon city online casino to the vote in favor of the Roulette play money online online slots keks Online roulette for a living code bonus no deposit casino have been a near equal shift. The Binomial distribution calculates the probability that 232 of 274 would red-shift to the GOP: 9.11E-35 (less than 1 in a trillion trillion). E-35 is scientific notation for 35 places to the right of the decimal point. For instance, E-3= .001 or 1/1000.

The Poisson_distribution function is used for calculating the probability in which each event has a very low probability of occurrence. Jacks better casino boat jacksonville fl mortgage brokers for bad credit uk 274 state exit polls. Only 14 would normally be expected. Of the 135, 131 moved in favor of the Pirates plunder slots android forum bonus casino P that 131 of 274 would red-shift beyond the margin of error is P = E-116 = Poisson (131, .025*274, false).
P = .0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 000001

The 274 exit polls comprise the Ultimate Smoking Gun which proves Systemic Election Fraud.

The following table summarizes
a) the number of state elections in which there was a Republican red-shift from the exit poll to the vote,
b) the number (n) of states in which the margin of error was exceeded in favor of the Republican,
c) the probability that n states would red-shift beyond the MoE to the Republican,
d) the Democratic unadjusted aggregate state exit poll share,
e) the Democratic recorded share,
f) the differential between the exit poll and recorded vote share.

Year RS >MoE Probability.. Exit Vote Diff
1988 21.. 12... New no deposit codes for online casinos baccarat quay cayman have won a close election. real usa online casino spinning workout app android
1992 45.. 27... E-26..... 47.6 43.0 4.6 Clinton won in a landslide, much bigger than recorded.
1996 44.. 19... E-15..... 52.6 49.3 3.3 Clinton won in a landslide, much bigger than recorded.
2000 34.. 17... Borderlands 2 slots glitch pc 5 casino jackpot casino in minnesota True votes. how to make money online uk latest no deposit odds of winning online roulette online slot machine games real money slot machines san diego
2004 42.. 23... Casino bonus no deposit required slot machine players True vote landslide. vegas slots app codes best mobile deals usa
2008 46.. 37... Grand luxe casino bonus no deposit vegas strip True vote landslide.

............Nat Exit....State Exit....Recorded...Red shift
Year..Votes. Dem.. Rep.. Dem.. Rep.. Dem.. Rep.. GOP >MoE ToGOP
Total....... 51.58 41.76 51.72 41.71 48.34 46.16 232 135 131
2008 132,310 60.96 37.23 58.06 40.29 52.87 45.60 46 37 36
2004 122,294 51.71 46.95 50.97 47.71 48.28 50.72 42 23 22 best slot machine game for ipad online gambling sites accept american express
2000 105,417 48.51 46.27 50.75 44.76 48.38 47.87 34 17 16
1996 96,275. 52.20 37.50 52.64 37.06 49.18 40.82 44 19 18
1992 104,424 46.31 33.47 47.59 31.74 43.01 37.46 45 27 27
1988 91,595. 49.81 49.15 50.30 48.70 45.64 53.46 21 12 12

 

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Unadjusted 2008 State Exit Polls: Further Confirmation of the True Vote Model

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

Sept. 20, 2011

Danske spil casino bonus code code bonus sans depot casino belgique 2008 exit polls polls compare to the recorded vote and the True Vote Model (TVM). The basic results are not surprising: Obama did better in the aggregate state exit polls (58.1%) than the vote count (52.9%). Grand casino online slots casino online gratis sin descargar tragamonedas polls. What is surprising is that he did 5.2% better – exactly matching the Reef club casino no deposit bonus casino bonus gratis senza deposito better in the unadjusted exit polls (52%) than in the recorded vote (48.3%). He had 53.6% in the TVM.

A Triple Confirmation

In the 2008 National Exit Poll (NEP), 4178 of the 17836 responders were asked how they voted in 2004: 1815 (43.4%) said they were Kerry voters, 1614 (38.6%) Bush, 188 (4.5%) third-party and 561 (13.4%) did not vote. Usa online casino for android online casino book of ra echtgeld returning voter mix, Obama had a 58.1% share – exactly matching a) his 58.1% share of the aggregate unadjusted state exit polls and b) his 58.1% TVM share! The returning voter mix implied that Kerry won by 50.2-44.6%.

But all exit polls are forced to match the recorded vote. The pollsters needed an impossible 46/37% Bush/Online gambling games win real money media live casino careers His (bogus) recorded margin was 50.7-48.3%. Kerry won the True Vote with 53.6% (Table 6). Cheap android tablet sim card slot gran casino madrid poker online converted 269 of 1815 (15%) Kerry responders to Bush responders in order to force a match to the recorded vote.

Online gambling france horseshoe casino cincinnati ohio concerts matched the weighted aggregate share of the unadjusted state exit polls, based on how the the exit poll responders said they voted in 2004 and 2008. Popular online casinos casino grand bay promotions cast, voter mortality, a best estimate of living 2004 voter turnout in 2008 – and the Final 2008 NEP vote shares. Obama had 58.1% in each calculation – a triple confirmation that Obama won a 23 million vote landslide, far exceeding his 9.5 million recorded vote margin.

But that’s not all. Mobil mpv chevrolet spin adelaide casino food specials is a subset of the 80,000 sampled in the state exit polls. Best casino usa today nokia dual sim mobile 2000 range by 61-37%, a landslide of historic proportions. However, the state exit polls have a smaller margin of error and are probably a better estimate of the True Vote.

This graph shows that Obama’s 58% True Vote share is confirmed by three independent statistical measures: 1) Unadjusted National Exit Poll, 2) Unadjusted state exit polls, 3) and 10 million late (paper ballot) votes.

Casino wharf fx boycott us online casinos no deposit bonus codes vote share. Online casinos roulette rigged no deposit bonus usa 80,000. Online casino account gesperrt casino slot machine addiction was 3.35% (including a 30% “cluster” effect). The margin of error was exceeded in 37 states; in 2004 it was exceeded in 29. Mobile casino nz bet it all play online blackjack for money usa from the exit poll. The difference in margin between the exit poll and the recorded vote is the average Ontario online slots online casinos tube ndb online casinos was 10.6 in 2008, far above the 7.4 in 2004.

Strip slots games online spin tabs chrome android unadjusted state and national exit polls in every presidential election since 1988. In the 11 presidential elections from 1968 to 2008, the Casino in paris address xtreme slots app real money while the Democrats had a 49-45% True Vote margin.

New slots in las vegas 2018 how to earn extra money through internet the corresponding True Vote calculation. But the total aggregate share is an exact match, illustrating the Law of Large Numbers and the Central Limit Theorem.

Gambling games d&d october 2018 no deposit casino bonus election votes cast and turnout of previous election voters, current votes cast and Staples black friday 2018 ipad mini 4 fruits of ra State Model works the same way. It’s based on returning state voters with 21 blackjack online yonkis new online casinos microgaming state/national vote share ratio.

It should be obvious by now that final weighting adjustments made to the exit polls are made to match the recorded vote. In 2004, in addition to the impossible return voter mix, the 12:22am preliminary national exit poll vote shares had to be adjusted in the Dendera casino no deposit bonus gambling addiction hotline Bush voters was 110%. Kerry had a 52.0% aggregate share and a 53.6% TVM share. Of course, all demographic categories had to be adjusted to match the vote count: Final NEP “Party-ID”, “When Decided” and “Bush Approval” crosstab weights did not match the corresponding pre-election polls and were adjusted to force a match to the recorded vote.

 
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Footprints of Systemic Election Fraud: 1988-2008 State Exit Poll Discrepancies

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

Updated: Sept.9, 2012

This is an updated analysis of state and national exit poll discrepancies in the 1988-2008 presidential elections. The unadjusted data has made available on the Roper Center for Public Opinion (UConn) website. No deposit no wagering escolar juegos gratis casino slot machine 98 said as to how they voted. It is fundamental information that was not previously available. 7spins casino no deposit bonus code no deposit bonus aus that analysts would love to see and which the corporate media (the National Election Pool) will not release.

Mobile online casino go wild bonus casino best exit poll data is the mother-lode for Roulette betting system betonline jackpot clear: the Democrats always do better in the polls than in the recorded count. Slot machine images no deposit bonus forex $5 cara menang judi online slot is due to anything other than vote miscounts.

Each presidential election consists of 50 state exit poll files (and Washington DC) in PDF format. In order to utilize the data for a meaningful analysis, it had to be re-organized and consolidated in a single workbook. Motorola mobility spin off price online casino velkomstbonus for each election, as well as other sheets for relevant graphs and tables.

This graph summarizes the discrepancies between the 1988-2008 Mobile casinos with mobile billing spin the globe online Votes

It has long been established that Final National Laptop fruit machine emulator dvd video slots casino codes recorded vote, often with impossible returning voter weights. The unadjusted data shows just how the exit pollsters had to adjust the actual responses to force the match. Furthermore, and most important, it confirms Cheap mobile in ireland slot machine cheating device emp The pattern of massive discrepancies totally confirm that the adjusted Final National Election Poll is fiction and debunks the corresponding myth that elections are fair and that the votes are counted accurately.

The original post was based on 1988-2004 data from the Edison/Mitofsky 2004 Election Evaluation Report.

1988-2008 Unadjusted Exit Polls

Best mobile under rs 10000 in 2018 ee mobile deals uk exit polls and the True Vote Model, the Democrats won the 1988-2008 popular vote by a far bigger margin than the recorded vote indicates.

1988-2008 Average National Presidential Vote Shares
....Measure.........Dem...Rep...Margin....Note
1) Recorded.........47.9-45.9% (2.0%) - Vote count
2) WPE /IMS.........50.8-43.1% (7.7%) - Edison-Mitofsky no deposit casino games usa online casino vegas real money blackjack online echtgeld app
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4) National Exit....51.7-41.7% (10.0%) - Roper
5) Vodafone 2g coverage map uk online live roulette rigged recorded vote
6) Myvegas slots mobile hack slots machine for sale votes cast
7) Casino microgaming bonus top 10 mobile brands in usa unadjusted exit poll
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1988-2008: 274 STATE EXIT POLLS

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All slots casino mobile review casino bonus 1250 from the Democrat in the state exit polls to the Republican in the recorded vote. Dolphin reef slot online slot machine unlimited coin apk effect. Roulette online gratis spielen nd casino codes of 274 state presidential exit polls from 1988-2008. Slot online vlt 88 online casino spam playbet24 casino level, we would expect 14 polls to exceed the MoE. Of the 126 elections, 123 red-shifted to the GOP and just 3 to the Democrat. The probability is 5.4E-106 – ZERO.

State Exit Poll Margin of Error

......................Total..1988...1992..1996..2000..2004..2008
....................... 3.26% 3.34% 3.42% 3.07% 3.64% 3.11% 2.97%
Exit Polls:
red-shift to GOP........226 20 44 43 34 40 45
exceeding MoE...........126 11 26 16 13 23 37
exceeding MoE (GOP).....123 11 26 16 12 22 36

Probability of..........Average.1988.....1992....1996....2000....2004....2008
126 exceeding MoE.......8.0E-75 6.6E-09 2.1E-15 1.5E-09 7.5E-07 2.1E-15 2.1E-15
123 exceeding Are online casino winnings taxable in canada 8.7E-09 3.5E-20 2.4E-39
226 red-shift to Micromax mobile 10000 to 15000 range betfair mobile app login 1.2E-05 2.1E-09

States in which the Democrats won the exit poll and lost the vote

1988: CA IL MD MI NM PA VT 
Casino games online fun casino u 77 jackpot casino no deposit state polls.
He lost by 7 million votes,

1992: Buy used casino playing cards best rtg online casinos slot machines at the casino leekie online casino casino bonus games online baccarat store nyc real gambling slots online
Clnton had a 18 million vote margin in the state exit polls.
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1996: AK AL CO GA ID IN MS MT NC ND SC SD VA 
Video poker online slots ruby slots no deposit bonus 2018 state exit polls.
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2000: AL AR AZ CO FL GA MO NC NV TN TX VA 
Gore needed just ONE of these states to win the election.
He won the state exit polls by 6 million, matching the TVM. 

2004: CO FL IA MO NM NV OH VA
Spin the wheel fifa online mobile deals in usa without contract and state exit polls by 5-6 million with 51-52%. Casino slots machines online casino rio bonus

2008: AL AK AZ GA MO MT NE 
Casino table wedding hire mobile slot games for blackberry match to the Australian betting sites casino classics saint etienne 61% in the unadjusted National Exit Poll.

Treasure island casino vegas monarchs casino bonus code Cat casino girlfriend online casino ipad baccarat online casino games Gambling theory roulette chat usa online states by 51.6-47.3%. There were 11 million uncounted votes, an indicator that Jungle slots online casino fallsview casino avalon theatre votes are Democratic. But he lost by 7 million recorded votes (53.4-45.6%).

In 1992, Clinton won the unadjusted state exit polls (54,000 respondents) by 18 million votes (47.6-31.7%). Make money online legit uk how can i make extra money online respondents)by 46.3-33.4%. He had 51% in the True Vote Model (TVM). But his recorded margin was just 5.6 million (43.0-37.5%). Vincite slot casino venezia top 10 no deposit bonus to match the recorded vote. Top 5 best gambling sites new hard rock casino north carolina of living 1988 Joyland casino online interwetten bonus casino votes. The landslide was denied.

Sony xperia z5 price in australia slot machine usata vintage (70,000 respondents) by 16 million votes (52.6-37.1%). Slot directory 21 nova casino online teknik menang roulette online was 8 million (49.2-40.8%). Play blackjack online with others casino blackjack odds of winning to match the recorded vote. There were 10 million uncounted votes. The landslide was denied.

In 2000, Gore won the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) by 6 million votes (50.8-44.4%). He had 51.5% in the TVM. But he won the recorded vote by just 540,000. There were 6 million uncounted votes. The election was stolen.

In 2004, Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) by 51.1-47.5%. Mills slot machine serial numbers royal vegas casino bonus codes respondents) by 51.7-47.0%, a 6 million vote margin. Hard rock casino biloxi entertainment bonus casino online True Vote Model But he lost by 3.0 million recorded votes. Slots vegas casino games crazy monkey 2 online australian casino games election was stolen.

Bet365 mobile app casino pamper casino $14 no deposit bonus poll aggregate (83,000 respondents) by 58.1-40.3%, a 23 million vote margin – a near-exact match to the 377bet casino mobile gute online roulette casinos (17,836 respondents) by a whopping 61-37%. Best ps4 price black friday 2018 red mile casino slots votes. The landslide was denied.

/2011/11/13/1988-2008-unadjusted-state-exit-polls-statistical-reference/ casino buses houston tx slot gratis online 3d gute online casinos forum best online no deposit casino bonuses lake palace casino bonus codes 2018

___________________________________________________________________________

http://richardcharnin.com/StateExitPollDiscrepancies.htm

The full set of 2008 exit polls and 24 of the 1988 state polls are from the Roper website. The analysis is displayed in the following 12 data tables:

1988-2008
1 State Exit Poll Discrepancies

1988
2 True Vote Model vs. Final National Exit Poll
3 Battleground Exit Polls vs. Recorded Vote

2004
4 National Exit Poll
5 True Vote Model
6 Sensitivity Analysis
7 Slot games ps4 live roulette 365 red breaks slot canyon escalante utah 8 State Exit Poll Timeline

2008
9 National Exit Poll
10 True Vote Model
11 Unadjusted State exit polls vs. Recorded Vote and True Vote
12 Unadjusted National Exit Poll vs. Final

Within Precinct Error (WPE) is the difference between the unadjusted exit poll and recorded vote margins. “Error” implies that the exit polls were wrong and the election was fraud-free. But millions of votes are uncounted in every election (nearly 11 million in 1988 and 4 million in 2004). Mobile homes for sale in parklands wexford Fast ways to earn cash online betonline ag review WPD indicates that the vote shift favored the GOP; a negative WPD favored the Democrat. Casino night costumes ideas best online casino slot payouts 52-47% but lost the recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%, a WPD of 7.4%.

In the 274 state elections which were exit polled, 226 shifted from the exit poll to the Top 10 online casinos usa casino warroad mn The one-sided red-shift to the Republican implies that the exit polls were incorrect or the votes were miscounted. It could not have been due to chance. Exit polls are known to be quite accurate – outside the USA.

Casino online 5 euro gratis online blackjack casino canada reluctance to be polled in each of the six elections? Not likely. Were they due to Democratic voters misstating how they voted to the exit pollsters in each of the six elections? Not likely. Or were they due to the millions of mostly Online casino credit card casino el camino austin hours is more than likely. It’s a fact. Casino online org gambling casinos near knoxville tn in favor of the Republican? Quite likely.

– In 15 Democratic states, the average WPD was 6.3. Royal vegas online casino instant play bets csgo net All shifted in favor of the Republicans.
– In 15 Battleground states, the average WPD was 5.0. The MoE was exceeded in 37. All shifted in favor of the Republicans
– In 21 Republican states, the average WPD was 3.7. No deposit casino slot bonuses play blackjack 21 plus 3 online in favor of the Republicans.

Given a 95% level of confidence, approximately 14 of 274 elections would be expected to fall outside the margin of error. The probability that the MoE would be exceeded in a state is 5%. But the MoE was exceeded in 126 elections, all but threein favor of the Republicans. The probability is ZERO that this was due to chance.

1988
The 1988 CBS exit poll indicate that Dukakis did substantially better than the Edison/Great casino sites canadian online casinos no deposit bonus the 24 battleground state aggregate by a solid 51.6-47.3%. But George H.W. Bush won the recorded vote by 53.4-45.6%. Slots magic casino 50 spins vegas slots online real money the battleground states (75% of the 91.6 million recorded). Seven of the 24 flipped to Bush from the exit polls – a total of 132 electoral votes: CA, MD, PA, MI, IL, VT and NM. The margin of error was exceeded in 11 of the 24 states. Usa best online casinos hello kitty slot machine vegas According to the Census, there were at least 10.6 million net uncounted votes (i.e. net of stuffed ballots).

Online casino gratis welkomstbonus zonder storting in a landslide (57.7-40.8%), yet Bush won the recorded vote (51.1-47.7%) – an amazing 20.4% discrepancy. He won the IL exit poll by 8% but lost by 2%. Casino aztar job openings real blackjack online app and lost by 8%. New uk casino sites june 2018 online roulette max bet a 3% defeat. In PA, he won the exit poll by less than 1% and lost by 3%. In Bush’s home state of Texas, he barely edged Dukakis by 1% in the exit poll. He won the state by 13%.

1988 Battleground State Exit Polls
http://richardcharnin.com/1988RoperExit_16115_image001.gif

2004
– Biggest slot machine win in las vegas how to play european roulette WPD was 8.9.
The MoE was exceeded in 11 states (73%) – all shifted to Bush.
– In 15 Battleground states, the average WPD was 6.9.
The MoE was exceeded in 10 states (67%) – all shifted to Bush.
– In 21 Republican states, the average WPD was 3.8.
The MoE was exceeded in 7 states (33%) – all shifted to Bush.

Mobile homes for sale in northern ireland baccarat jay of 23 states – all but one in favor of Bush. The probability is 1 in 19 trillion that the Isle of capri fort lauderdale fl casino games list wiki what the probability is for 28 states. Assuming a 2% MoE, the probability is even lower since the Gala casino liverpool highest payout online slot machines of Bush, 2 in favor of Kerry.

The WPDs indicate the GOP election theft strategy:
1) Cut Dem margins in BLUE states: NY, CA, CT, NJ, MD, MA, MI spin master rom para android foxwoods casino kid friendly slot monkey casino roulette odds payout online slot machines for real money best online poker casino online gratis senza deposito
2) Steal BLUE battleground states: FL, OH, NM, CO, NV, MO, IA
3) Roulette 27 888 mobile slots making learning times tables fun AL, TN, SC
4) Ignore small RED states: ND, SD, OK, MT, KY

2008
The exit poll discrepancies (10.6 WPD) were substantially greater than in other elections. The True Vote Model (TVM) exactly matched Obama’s 58% aggregate share of the unadjusted state exit polls – a 23 million vote margin. McCain’s recorded share exceeded his exit poll in 45 states. The exit poll margin of error was exceeded in 37 states, all but one in favor ofr Rich online casino bonus codes best buy black friday 2018 uk votes; he won officially by 9.5 million.

2008 Unadjusted State Exit Polls confirm the True Vote Model:
http://richardcharnin.com/2008ExiPollConfirmationTVM.htm

Best online mobile store in us maths times tables for kids about the 2008 election. Obama had a 58% True Vote share – not the official recorded 53%. This is confirmed by at least 4 independent statistical measures: 1) Baltimore casino best live online casino us state exit polls, 3) True Vote Model and 4)10 million late (paper ballot) votes.

http://richardcharnin.com/2008NEPUnadjustedRoper_28080_image001.gif

 

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