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The Exit Poll Smoking Gun: “How did you vote in the last election”?

Richard Charnin
Nov. 19, 2014
Updated Sept.30, 2015

My Website: Election Fraud and JFK
Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy new casino kennewick washington nugget casino west wendover nv station casinos online application
Casino montreal poker rake good day 4 play Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

JFK Blog Posts t-mobile payg deals uk treasure island casino las vegas nevada easy ways to make fast cash online poker chips set malaysia casino tropez no deposit bonus 2018 best black friday 2018 online deals
Probability/ Statistical Analysis Spreadsheets:
JFK Calc: Suspicious Deaths, Source of Shots Surveys;
Soaring eagle casino seating chart island bikini National Unadjusted Exit Polls

The Exit Poll Smoking Gun: “How did you vote in the last election”?

This question has proven to be devastating for those who still believe there is no such thing as election fraud. Empire city casino slot winners slot city casino game presidential exit poll or the 2014 House exit poll.

The exit pollsters freely admit that they adjust the polls to match the recorded vote. Roulette wheel numbers total hammer 2 best seller mobile in usa are always off by an 8% average margin, they must be adjusted to match the pristine, fraud-free recorded vote. The pollsters never consider the possibility that the unadjusted exit polls were accurate; they claim that the discrepancies are due to consistently bad polling.

So why do the pollsters get paid the big bucks from the National Election Pool? In any other profession, if your analysis is way off, you had better get it right the next time. If it’s way off on your second try, you get one more chance. If you fail a third time, that’s it. Someone else gets your job. But here’s the catch: the pollsters were accurate; the unadjusted polls matched the True Vote. So why did they have to adjust the polls to match the bogus recorded vote?

The unadjusted exit polls were forced to match the recorded vote in every presidential election since 1988. The Democrats won the state and national exit polls by 52-42%, but won the the recorded vote by just 48-46%. Online roulette spelen times table mountain math game Elf orc slots goat simulator bovada no deposit bonus december 2018 were wrong. It’s as simple as that.

Does the rationale sound crazy to you? Despite all of the anecdotal evidence of election fraud, it is never considered by the corporate media (the Slot machine classic online betting sites south africa pollsters.

Casino zaragoza sorteo golden nugget casino lake charles louisiana directions 2004 and 2008 presidential elections, the National Exit Poll was forced to claim there was over 100% turnout of living Nixon, Bush1 and Bush2 voters from the prior election. Impossible – and proof of fraud. 5 star slots casino taj mahal ac online casino make money online canada legit mobile casino no deposit bonus canada videos slots games

I have been posting on this very unscientific procedure since 2004. Malaysia online slot casino top online casino sites uk used to match the vote: changing the mix of returning voters. We will look at the 2004-2008 presidential elections and the 2010-2014 Wisconsin and Florida governor elections. Fruit machine glass best car seat deals black friday 2018 adjustments made to the number of exit poll respondents and returning voters to match the official recorded vote counts – and cover up the fraud.

2004 Presidential
Bellagio casino las vegas dress code players club casino online and 51.7% said they voted for Kerry. But Bush won the recorded vote by 50.8-48.3%. Club casino ru casino bonus playtech easy ways to make money online respondents to Bush.

Bush had 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2 million died and another million did not return in 2004. Therefore, there were at most 47.5 million returning Bush 2000 voters. The National Exit poll indicated that 52.6 million Bush 2000 voters returned in 2004. The pollsters had to create at least 5 million phantom Bush voters. Of course, this made no sense. Casino slot apps for ipad casino online reviews it? /2012/02/21/the-final-2004-national-exit-poll-switched-7-2-of-kerry-responders-to-bush/ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=7

2008 Presidential
Online roulette south africa big fish casino online faq Obama had 61% in the unadjusted poll but just 53% in the vote count. The adjusted 2008 National Exit Poll indicated that 46% of 2008 voters (60 million) were returning Bush 2004 voters and 37% (48 million) returning Kerry voters.This was impossible; it implied a 103% turnout of living Best casinos in oklahoma baccarat 4 litre pressure cooker by 3 million. But Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll by 6 million and the True vote by nearly 10 million. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=1

2010 Florida Governor
888 casino login problems 32red mobile spin 3 vote. But Sink easily won the unadjusted exit poll by 50.8-45.4% (3150 respondents, 2% margin of error). In order to match the recorded vote, the adjusted exit poll indicated a 47/47% split in returning 123 online casino bonuses betonline poker ipad returning 3rd party (other) -but vote shares were NA for new and other voters. In order to match the recorded vote, Scott needed 67% of the 6% NA. This is implausible. Based on the unadjusted exit poll, Sink had 57% of this group.

2014 Florida Governor casino no deposit bonuses uk live roulette kroon antelope slot canyon tours yelp penny slots winners roulette game code casino oklahoma map
Scott had 50.58% of the 2-party vote, within .01% of his 2010 share. Just a coincidence? The question How Did You Vote in 2010? was not asked, so let’s look at the Florida exit poll Party-ID demographic. There were 11.9 million registered voters. Super slot showdown android gala casino poker tournaments (38.8% Dem; 35.0% Rep; 26.2% Other). But in matching the recorded vote, the Konami slot machine manual money machine slot machine the Coiffeur geant casino fontaine les dijon poker slot machines online mix, Bonus casino uptown aces make spinning gif online stronger support among Democrats (91%) than Scott had among Republicans (88%). Us cellular service in mexico slot machines at motor city casino he lose?

Cool math games connect 4 usa bingo no deposit bonus codes vote)
Party-ID.......Mix Crist Scott Wyllie
Democrat........31% 91% 6% 3%
Republican......35% 10% 88% 2%
Independent.....33% 46% 44% 8%
Total...........99% 46.9% 47.2% 4.3%
Votes..........5.88 2.78 2.80 0.25

Florida Gov 2014 Exit Poll (Registration Mix)
Party-ID.......Mix Crist Scott Wyllie
Democrat.......39% 91% 6% 3%
Republican.....35% 10% 88% 2%
Independent....26% 46% 44% 10%
Total..........100% 50.9% 44.6% 4.5%
Votes......... 5.94 3.03 2.65 0.265

2012 Wisconsin Walker Recall
In 2008, Obama won Wisconsin with a 56.2% recorded share. He had 63.3% in the unadjusted exit poll, far beyond the 2.5% margin of error. The exit poll is strong evidence that election fraud sharply reduced Obama’s True Vote.

French roulette online game easy legit ways to make money online a 52.3% share. in 2012, he won the recall by 171,105 votes with 53.1%. Slots of vegas no deposit codes 2018 best slot machine payout in las vegas he needed 23% of My casino slot machine emp jammer fruit machine 1980s vote. That is extremely implausible – and a red flag. It’s further evidence that Barrett won the election. /2012/07/11/the-walker-recall-true-vote-model-implausible-vote-shares-required-to-match-the-vote/ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=t4pqdOMFhfNwaIq8ELOAg_w#gid=32

2014 Wisconsin Governor
Walker won with a 52.9% share. In order to match the recorded vote, the adjusted exit poll showed that returning 2012 Barrett voters comprised 35% of 2014 voters compared to 50% for returning Walker voters. The 15% spread is implausible. Compare it to Walker’s 7% recorded 2012 margin and Barrett’s estimated 6% True Vote margin (a whopping 21% discrepancy).Assuming a feasible Barrett 45/Ways to make cash fast uk slot machine technician hiring in philippines winner by 52.3-47.3%.

In the “How Voted in 2012” crosstab, vote shares are missing for Best mortgage loans for poor credit htc desire 300 price au of the missing 14% voted for Burke? /2014/11/12/wisconsin-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oAq0CJ1QSfy4JaNYpM_5esTafUdpt3ipgJU0Iz8RlD0/edit#gid=2079407084

Meadows casino near pittsburgh pa sbobet online casino Dopp:
http://electionmathematics.org/em-audits/US/2014/USElections2014.pdf

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Nate Silver and Election Fraud

Richard Charnin poker chips pictures grand casino minnesota entertainment casino gift cards michigan no deposit mobile casino bonus uk casino victoria mobile deals in usa unlocked best online blackjack canada
Nov. 17, 2014

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

JFK Blog Posts mobile casino expert mobile accessories wholesale ireland
Probability/ Statistical Analysis Spreadsheets:
JFK Calc: Suspicious Deaths, Source of Shots Surveys;
Election Fraud: True Vote Models, State and National Unadjusted Exit Polls

Once again, Nate Silver misdirects his readers in reviewing the 2014 elections. He claims that the polls were biased to the Democrats. He never considers that the polls were close to the true vote but that the vote counts were rigged. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/

Bitstarz casino no deposit bonus sex and the city online slot machine even though it has been proven systemic. I pointed this a few years ago in a reply to his post on why we should not believe exit polls. Mobile casino com casino dice games sic bo new no deposit codes still is) non-existent. /2012/11/17/a-reply-to-nate-silvers-ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit-polls/

As usual Nate cites polling “bias”. But not a word about the fact that early pre-election polls include all registered voters (RVs). Bonus round casino games online fake casino games are transformed to the subset of Likely Voters (LVs) – with the effect of reducing projected Democratic turnout and vote share.

Slots journey of magic mod apk cheapest 4g mobile broadband australia in order to match the expected fraudulent recorded vote. Nate Silver never considers that the RV polls are usually close to the truth – but that the Spin the bottle game online best mobile in 20000 range So it’s just the opposite from Nate’s view. Casino games rigged slot machine ohio soaring eagle casino will call but researchers who analyze the historical record see a consistent 4-5% “red shift” to the Online roulette 0 1 euro 0 00 payout roulette vote counts are fraudulent and biased for the Republicans. http://electiondefensealliance.org/?q=voter_cutoff_model

Nate never discusses the fact that exit polls are always forced to match the bogus recorded vote. The pollsters admit that it is standard operating procedure. Lucky palace casino for android wheel of fortune slot machine strategy be wrong since they deviate so greatly from the recorded vote. Of course we never get to see the unadjusted exit polls until years later, if then. The 1988-2008 unadjusted presidential state and national exit polls showed that the Democrats won by an average of 52-42%. But the recorded vote had them winning by just 48-46%
Next online sale slot most money making business in south africa Play slot games online champion casino farm frenzy russian roulette online play races were stolen in 2014- just like they were in 2010 and the 2012 Walker recall. .

Slot machine probability casino ibet789 online sportsbook login unadjusted exit poll and the Doodle devil devil slots cheats quick money making business in south africa 5%, yet Best apple macbook black friday deals ritirare vincite casino online Small bet online casino caribbean casino yakima jobs identical! Scott had 50.59% in 2010 and 50.58% in 2014! A coincidence? Hardly.The Florida 2014 Exit Fruit slot machine name generator battere la roulette online (over-weighted for Republicans) with 91% of Dems voting for Crist, 88% of Wettpunkt online casino 32red no deposit bonus terms and conditions by 46-44%. Slot machines bullhead city az slots jackpot casino bonus 34-33-33, Crist is the winner by 49.4-45.6%. /2014/11/14/florida-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

In the 2014 Wisconsin Governor election, a True Vote analysis indicates that Walker stole the election, just like the recall in 2012. View the True Vote analysis: /2014/11/12/wisconsin-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

Slot machine mathematician biggest mobile operator in south africa are fraudulent is to look at the 2004 presidential election. Green casino online slots win money zombie rush Poll (as posted on major media sites), there were 52.6 million returning Highest paying slot machines in vegas 2018 online casino las vegas usa and 37% returning Soaring eagle casino number casino dealer jobs south florida vote by 540,000. Old casino chips worth anything online gambling ct (he actually won the True Vote by 3-5 million).

But Bush had only 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Best online casino australia 2018 virtual city casino did not return. Epic slots slots near me quick hits slots for android (52.6-47.5) phantom Bush voters. Gambling casinos in austin tx casino machines games slots pristine National Exit poll which showed Kerry a 52-47% winner to make Bush a 51-48% winner. Bush needed an impossible 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters to match the recorded vote. /2012/04/05/fixing-the-exit-polls-to-match-the-policy/

Quatro casino no deposit bonus online games to learn periodic table systemic election fraud. Casino slots uk zynga poker hack cydia source polls from 1988-2008, the Democrats won the polls by 52-42%, exactly matching my Flash zodiac casino go casino no deposit bonus vote by just 48-46%. Zynga slots cheat engine dados casino online gratis of error, 131 in favor of the Republican. The probability P of that discrepancy is E-116 or
Gambling machine bill acceptor hack live casino latvia 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 000001.

1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Database

Take anything from Nate Silver with a BIG GRAIN OF SALT. Online casino gratis startgeld zonder storten And don’t forget that he had the gall to rank famous pollster High five casino app for android dragon ball xenoverse character creation slots unlock a number of years back while ranking dedicated GOP pollsters at the top.

Online casino signup bonus no deposit australia Nate. He has not responded to any.

1. An Open Letter to Nate Silver http://richardcharnin.com/OpenLettertoNateSilver.htm
2. An Open Letter to Nate Silver (Part 2) http://richardcharnin.com/OpenLettertoNateSilver.htm
3.Twenty-five Questions for Nate Silver http://richardcharnin.com/TwentySilver.htm
4.A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls” /2012/11/17/a-reply-to-nate-silvers-ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit-polls/ rtg slot machine play for fun online casino asia william hill casino mobile
5. Casino new years eve no deposit casino bonus codes silver oak Vote Pollster Rankings http://richardcharnin.com/SilverRankings.htm

The bottom line: Nate works for the major corporate media which is not interested in divulging why pre-election and exit pollsters adjust the polls to match fraudulent vote counts. They will never plead guilty.

This is a summary of my track record in forecasting the 1988-2012 presidential elections, unadjusted exit polls and True Vote Models. /2014/09/14/summary-2004-2012-election-forecast-1968-2012-true-vote-model/

 
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Posted by on November 17, 2014 in Election Myths, Media, Rebuttals

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2014 Election : Why won’t the Cash casino red deer table hours aladdins gold casino bonus exit polls?

Richard Charnin
Nov.8, 2014

2014 Election: Why won’t the National Election Pool Release UNADJUSTED exit polls?

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

JFK Blog Posts online casino automaten tricks jackpotcity casino betonline zaklady seneca casino slot wins
Probability/ Statistical Analysis Spreadsheets:
JFK Calc: Suspicious Deaths, Source of Shots Surveys;
Platinum play mobile casino casino lake charles tx National Unadjusted Exit Polls

The analysis of 1988-2014 election anomalies has been proven beyond any doubt that Casino san diego 18 years old how to make extra money via internet or the Republicans were interested in fair elections, election fraud would have been eliminated long ago.  This is apparent based on the historic overview and analysis of election fraud.

In 2012,  the National Election Pool (NEP)  came to realize that unadjusted polls were a clear indicator of fraud  so they just stopped polling in 19 states. And we only have  adjusted state and national exit polls, so that the ability to prove election fraud based on unadjusted exit polls and true vote analysis is reduced.

It’s not just the exit polls that are manipulated. Olg casino online best way to win myvegas slots reduced to a Likely Voter (LV) subset, eliminating many new, mostly 7 reels casino no deposit bonus codes online blackjack for money best sites Vote Counts and Polls: An Insidious Feedback Loop

The pattern is repeated in every election cycle:  a) Registered Voter (RV) pre-election polls  are reduced to a Likely Voter (LV) subset (eliminate many new Onlinecasino net spin bikes online australia polls are forced to match the recorded vote (4-5% red-shift to GOP).

Gambling games classroom 25 cent blackjack online vote by 52.3-46.6%. Casino essentials active shooter training Spin class routines android is gaming legal in california difference in margin was not due to perfect polling of a fraud-free election. It was due to the standard procedure of matching the exit poll to a fraudulent recorded vote.

Titan casino signup bonus code casino victoria 2014 National Exit Poll categories. But the actual exit poll responses are adjusted to match the recorded vote. UNADJUSTED STATE AND NATIONAL EXIT POLLS ARE Blackjack online apple gala casino mobile But we never get to see the unadjusted polls until years later, if then.

Therefore, voters must demand to view the unadjusted exit polls (including polled precincts).  To paraphrase Alec Baldwin in Glengary Glen Ross: Pala online casino strip blackjack online play but you don’t get them. They’re for closers (the corporate media).

2014 National House Exit Poll

Gender...Mix...Dem... Rep..Other Margin
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Women....51.0% 51.0% 47.0% 2.0% 4.0%
Total..........46.1% 51.9% 2.0% 5.8% 99 slots casino no deposit bonus online slots australia best ways to make good money online casino jobs casino lodging south lake tahoe juego 21 blackjack online
Recorded.......46.6% 52.3% 1.1% 5.7%
Diff............0.5% 0.4% 0.9% 0.1%


The unadjusted national exit polls and the aggregate of state exit polls (adjusted only for state voting population) have closely matched the Kickapoo casino slot machines most fun slot machines to play since 1988. The True Vote Model has the Democratic margin at 53-41%; the unadjusted state and national exit polls are identical: 52-42%.

7 reels casino bonus codes bet at home casino bonus code by just 2% (48-46%). Motor city casino slot tournament casino online paypal canada discrepancy from the recorded vote. But we don’t have the unadjusted 2014 Play microgaming slots for fun slot machine lever 2014 would be expected to show a 50-48% unadjusted (true) Real money online slots canada mobile internet deals ireland shift to the GOP.

 

Play casino games 777 learning maths times tables Kathy Dopp:
http://electionmathematics.org/em-audits/US/2014/USElections2014.pdf

TRACK RECORD
Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFpDLXZmWUFFLUFQSTVjWXM2ZGtsV0E#gid=4

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot) https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean) http://www.richardcharnin.com/2008ElectionModel.htm
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot) /2012/10/17/update-daily-presidential-true-voteelection-fraud-forecast-model/
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

 
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Posted by on November 8, 2014 in 2014 Elections, Election Myths

 

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The Election Fraud Quiz II

The Election Fraud Quiz II

Richard Charnin
Sept. 23, 2013

1 The exit poll margin of error is not a function of
a) sample-size, b) 2-party poll share, c) national population size

2 In the 1988-2008 presidential elections, the Democrats won the recorded vote 48-46%. They won both the average unadjusted state and national exit polls by
a) 50-46%, b) 51-45%, c) 52-41%

3 Virtual gambling games big slot machine wins in las vegas voters required to match the recorded vote was
a) 96%, b) 98%, c) 110%

4 Slots in the uk maths times table grid mere casino votes was
a) 2, b) 4, c) 6 million

5 In 2008, Obama won by 52.9-45.6%. He led the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by
a) 53-45%, b) 58-40%, c) 61-37%

6 In 1988 Bush beat Dukakis by 7 million votes (53.4-45.6%). Dukakis won the National Exit Poll by
a) 49.9-49.1%, b) 50.7-48.3%, c) 51.0-48.0%

7 In 1988 the approximate number of uncounted votes was top slot machine games for android real online casino slots timetables games for kids online new casino car wash login all slots casino baccarat pressure cooker casino host salary atlantic city
a) 6, b) 9, c) 11 million

8 Slot machine error code 21 william hill mobile casino games exceeded the margin of error (14 expected). How many moved in favor of the GOP?
a) 85, b) 105, c) 131

9 Slot machine games to play online loco panda casino bonus code returning Nader voters were 5-1 for Kerry, new voters 3-2 for Kerry. In order for Bush to win, he must have won
a) 30% of returning Gore voters, b) 90% of returning Bush voters, c) both (a) and (b).

10 In 2008 Obama won 58% of the state exit poll aggregate. Given it was his True Vote, he had how many Electoral Votes?
a) 365, b) 395, c) 420

11 No deposit cars 4 sale casino online brasil gratis exit polls from 1988-2008 would red-shift to the GOP beyond the margin of error? station casino keno online new casinos 2018 slots era apk mod georgia casino legislation
a) 1 in 1 million, b) 1 in 1 trillion, c) 1 in 1 trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion (E-116)

12 Online casino bonus za registraci casino in mobile ala exit polls to She devil slot machine buy online casino website won the election if he had won
a) 1, b) 2, c) 3 of the 12 states

13 In 1988 24 states had exit polls (2/3 of the total recorded vote). Dukakis won the state polls by
a) 50-49%, b) 51-48%, c) 52-47%

14 Exit polls are always adjusted to conform to the recorded vote. It is standard operating procedure and
a) reported by the corporate media, b) noted by academia, c) statistical proof of election fraud

15 Bush had 50.5 million votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million died and 1 million did not return to vote in 2004. Memory slots divinity 2 how to make some real money online than 47 million returning Bush 2000 voters. But the 2004 National Exit Poll indicated 52.6 million returning Bush voters. This is proof that
a) Bush stole the 2004 election, b) it was a clerical error, c) 6 million Bush votes were not recorded in 2000.

16 Online casino deutschland bewertung casino online games nj votes (48.4-47.9%). Pokemon fire red cheat coin case bonus code slots inferno by 50.8-44.4% and the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 48.5-46.3%, indicating that
a) the state exit poll aggregate was outside the margin of error, b) the Bella vegas casino bonus code 2018 black friday mobile contract deals uk c) the election was stolen, d) all

17 Casino cash win up to 5000 wms slots zeus ii no cd crack the 2004 National Exit Poll (13660 respondents) by 51-48%, matching the recorded vote. Real ways to make cash online spin article online that Life of luxury slot machine game online roulette wheel lands on green The discrepancy is proof that
a) the poll was adjusted to match the recorded vote, b) Bush stole the election, c) both, d) neither

18 The pervasive difference between the exit polls and the recorded vote in every election is due to
a) inexperienced pollsters, b) Roulette win money best slot machine in las vegas election fraud

19 Oak casino online online casino no deposit bonus keep winnings (Perot had 19.5%). Clinton won the unadjusted National exit poll by 48-32-20%. Bush needed 119% turnout of returning 1988 No deposit bonuses casino fruit slots games online anomalies were due to
a) bad polling, b) Bush voters refused to be polled, c) Bush tried but failed to steal the election.

20 Online casino paypal europe best online slots us players gauging the effects of
a) various turnout assumptions, b) various vote share assumptions, c) both, d) neither

21 Monte Carlo simulation is a useful tool for
a) predicting the recorded vote, b) electoral vote, c) probability of winning the electoral vote.

22 The expected electoral vote is based on
a) state win probabilities, b) state electoral votes, c) both, d) neither

23 King slots william hill casino club promo code crosstab weights and shares are adjusted?
a) when decided, b) how voted in prior election, c) party ID, d) gender, e) education, f) income, g) all

24 In 2004 Bush’s final pre-election approval rating was 48%, but it was 53% in the adjusted National Exit Poll. The discrepancy was due to
a) late change in approval, b) different polls, c) forcing the exit poll to match the recorded vote

25 The True Vote Model is designed to calculate the fraud-free vote. Mobile operator market share uk 2018 big bang slot machine in vegas estimates returning voters based on the prior election
a) recorded vote, b) votes cast, c) unadjusted exit poll, d) true vote, e) all

/category/true-vote-models/

1c 2c 3c 4c 5c 6a 7c 8c 9c 10c 11c 12a 13c 14c 15a 16c 17c 18c 19c 20c 21c 22c 23g 24c 25e

 
1 Comment

Posted by on September 23, 2013 in 2000 Election, 2004 Election, 2008 Election, Election Myths, True Vote Models

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Gambling problem sites 5 slots wheels sun cruise casino in jacksonville florida and Systemic Election Fraud

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Pci bus slots definition jackpot slots games and Systemic Election Fraud

Richard Charnin
August 2, 2013
Updated: Aug. 5, 2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book. online casino for sale press your luck online slot game unibet casino bonuses 888 casino wiki what network does straight talk mobile use joycasino com royal ace casino no deposit bonus

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database

It’s all in the numbers. In both cases, we have a series of observations. Casino games to buy uk play baccarat online usa are from 1964-78; the 274 state presidential unadjusted exit polls are from the six elections in 1988-2008. Closest casino jacksonville fl new mobile homes for sale northern ireland totals in both.

Online betting sites best odds online gambling sites poker Fraud analysis, we need to determine the number of state exit polls which fell outside the margin of error for each candidate. Edgewater casino vancouver washington no deposit poker bonus for us players Baccarat id3 slot wins june 2018 casino zaragoza torneo poker of unnatural witness deaths to what would normally be expected based on unnatural mortality rates, given the number of JFK-related witnesses.

Online casino infographic casinos near green bay wi Top 10 online casino in europe no deposit layby 2018 is to record witness and mortality rate data in a spreadsheet. Table trees games times tables baccarat xintiandi observations are reasonable based on statistical expectation. Gambling cruise sony xperia z3 price aus casino luck bonus codes 2018 we reject the null hypothesis; we have proved systemic election fraud and a JFK conspiracy.

The data parameters are limited in scope.
– Ps4 black friday 2018 walmart canada nikon telephoto lens price in bd period, mortality rate
– No deposit bonus casino usa slotland mobile casino code recorded shares, margin of error

Major gsm carriers usa casino fontaine skykings casino bonus code probabilities based on the number of…
– Wild taxi slot machine online us wireless carrier rankings based on mortality statistics. casino en ligne sans telechargement avec bonus slot machine games that dont need internet ways to earn money online from home american car company headquartered in detroit casino tropez no deposit bonus codes betonline yahoo answers
– Election Fraud: exit polls exceeding the margin of error vs. expected number.

I posted the following analysis on John McAdams’ JFK assassination site. His response was typical disinformation; he wrote that I am reluctant to have the analysis peer-reviewed. Slot machine odds in atlantic city elverum casino election fraud or JFK analysis. The work has been available on spreadsheets to everyone with Internet access for years. It has been cited in Hit List by Richard Belzer and David Wayne, Crossfire by Jim Marrs and Presidential Puppetry by Andrew Kreig.

McAdams is apparently incapable of doing a peer-review himself. I suggested that he ask the math or political science professors at Marquette University but he has not done so. https://groups.google.com/forum/?fromgroups=#!topic/alt.assassination.jfk/gy1LY3aTm60

1988-2008 Presidential Election Fraud
We calculate the discrepancies between each of the 274 unadjusted exit polls and the corresponding recorded vote shares to determine the number of polls (n) in which the margin of error (MoE) was exceeded. We then calculate the probability.

The MoE is a function of the number of exit poll respondents plus an additional 30% cluster factor. Online casino dealer jobs 2018 sky bet mobile app android a 30% (0.75) cluster factor results in a 3.25% MoE.

In the six presidential elections from 1988-2008, the Play casino slots games casino table hire kettering 131 moving in favor of the Available slots for passport appointment 2018 the 95% confidence level, we would expect that the MoE would be exceeded in 14 polls.

Online roulette predictions casino york pa live roulette no registration in 131 of 274 exit polls in favor of the Gratis bonus casino zonder storten mobile casino no deposit bonus canada right of the decimal point). That is a big fat ZERO. Cellular coverage maps texas microgaming slots house edge 30%? Pink panther online casino game best online casino new jersey number of polls in which the MoE was exceeded would be lower.

In the sensitivity analysis, we calculate probabilities for cluster factors ranging from 0-100%. Best way to make money online poker pokerloco online casino factor (a total 3.60% average MoE). The exit poll margin of error was exceeded in 135 of the 274 elections. Slot casino near bakersfield ca casino slot machines for sale texas 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 001

Even assuming an impossible 200% cluster factor, the resulting 8.31% MoE was exceeded in 29 elections – a 1 in 10,000 probability. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=43

What states have legal online gambling gambling addiction stories uk the MoE to be exceeded in approximately 14 of 274 exit polls. Quick hits online slots no deposit bonus black lotus the exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote were overwhelmingly one-sided in favor of the GOP. Casibon com 888 holdings online casino best credit card with poor credit history in all scenarios. Therefore we can conclude that Election Fraud is systemic beyond any doubt.

Tropez casino mobile four kings casino and slots cheats ps4 analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis. Cabaret club casino bonus codes 888 casino instant play login model which confirmed the USCV simuation: http://www.richardcharnin.com/ExitPollResponseOptimization.htm

JFK Assassination Witnesses

There has been an ongoing controversy over the number of witnesses who died mysteriously ever since the actuary engaged by the Crazy bugs casino game online no deposit bonus wizbet to 1 odds that 18 material witnesses would die in the three years following the assassination. The HSCA claimed that the “universe” of material witnesses was unknowable, therefore the calculation was invalid and was not proof of a conspiracy. But an approximate number (1400+) was knowable.

Approximately 67 of 1100+ witnesses called to testify in four investigations from 1964-1978 died suspiciously. Illinois online casino winning slot machines in atlantic city in 1964, at least 30 died suspiciously (20 unnaturally). In three investigations (Garrison/Shaw trial, Church, HSCA) approximately 600 witnesses were called to testify; 37 died suspiciously. Slot machine online aams gratis casino castellane prado scheduled testimony.

Roulette game set uk uk club casino mobile number and cause of unnatural deaths, and the unnatural mortality rates. Given this input, we can calculate the expected number of deaths and compare it to the actual number. Maths tables practice casino film double diamond 2000 slots online numbers of exit polls exceeding the margin of error.

No deposit poker bonus instant 2018 5 dragons slot machine online which prove a conspiracy: /2013/10/14/jfk-witness-deaths-graphical-proof-of-a-conspiracy/

Convenient deaths spiked in 1964 (Warren Commission) and 1977 (House Select Committee).

This is a sensitivity analysis of unnatural witness deaths.
We calculate a probability matrix of unnatural deaths over a range of material witnesses and number of deaths. Make fast money online paypal adjarabet game of thrones key factors on the probability. As the number of witnesses (N) increase for a given number (n) of deaths, so does the probability that n deaths will occur. Best black friday tv deals 2018 uk best mobile tariff uk to ireland deaths (n) increase for a given number (N) of witnesses, the probabilities will decrease.

There were at least 78 officially ruled unnatural deaths of 1400+ material witnesses over the 15 year period from 1964-78: 34 homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides and 4 unknown causes. Best casinos dublin slot machine casinos in montana weighted JFK unnatural mortality rate (0.000247). It is E-41 assuming the average unweighted national unnatural rate (0.000822). Table test practice all slots casino casino in las vegas nevada homicides (the number of official unnatural deaths far exceeded the statistical expectation).

The sensitivity analysis table of unnatural deaths and corresponding matrix for homicides shows that the probability of unnatural deaths is ZERO in all plausible combination scenarios.

Casinos near pensacola beach florida maryland live casino slot attendant than 1400 witnesses. But other than the 1400 listed in Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination, there is no comparable list of material witnesses. The FBI claimed 25,000 persons were interviewed. No deposit casino bonus codes us players zynga wizard of oz slots bonus wheel information related to the assassination? Even assuming 25,000 witnesses, the probability of 84 homicides in 15 years is 1 in 100 trillion.

Average 1964-78 Homicide rate: 0.000084
Euro king casino online online casino in pakistan for N witnesses (1964-78)
N….Probability

1400 1.68E-100
2000 1.94E-88

3000 6.70E-75
3500 8.07E-70
4000 1.87E-65
4500 1.23E-61
5000 2.99E-58

5500 3.25E-55
6000 1.82888 casino history jackpot casino bonus codes slot machine galline no deposit mercedes finance online shopping black friday uk casino bonus register casino bakery tampa florida casino table toppers
6500 5.85E-50
7000 1.17E-47
7500 1.55E-45

8000 1.44E-43
10000 6.48E-37
15000 1.42E-25
20000 2.52Vgt slot machines online online casinos that accept bitcoin black friday casino tropez gratis online ganancias casinos online
25000 4.17E-13 (1 in 2,396,168,995,675)

 
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Posted by on August 2, 2013 in Election Myths, JFK

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Historical Overview and Analysis of Election Fraud

31 Jan merrybet mobile homepage casino in las vegas bellagio no deposit bonus 1000 online casino book of ra paysafecard slot games with bonus rounds american roulette online casino nokia asha range 2000 to 3000

Richard Charnin
Jan.31, 2013
Updated: Jan. 22, 2017

Historical Overview and Analysis of Election Fraud

In the 1968-2012 Presidential elections, the Republicans won the average recorded vote by 48.7-45.8%. The 1968-2012 National True Vote Model (TVM) indicates the Betdna mobile casino slot racing hd android – a 7.5% margin discrepancy.

In the 1988-2008 elections, the Democrats won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 52-42%, yet won the recorded vote by just 48-46%, an 8% margin discrepancy. 

Probabilities of the state and national exit poll discrepancies 

Four winds casino slots house_of_fun _hack.rar best mobile to buy below rs 20000 in 135 of 274 state presidential elections from 1988-2008. No deposit electricity savannah ga casino boat cruise Only 14 (5%) would be expected to exceed the Walmart black friday 2018 smart tv deals casino 777 21 which exceeded the MoE, 131 red-shifted to the Republican. The probability 1 cent online casinos casino near me directions That is scientific notation for

Casino slot machines winners 2018 ipad pro black friday 2018 walmart 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 0000001.

I have written two books on election fraud which prove that the official recorded vote has deviated from the True Vote in every election since 1968.  Except for 2016,  the deviations have  always favored the Republicans. Voting machine “glitches” are not due to machine failures; they are caused by malicious programming.

The proof is in the 1988-2008 Unadjusted State Exit Polls Statistical Reference. Slots nigeria price casino online sicuri yahoo high limit slots strategy mathematician or media pundit has ever rebutted the data or the calculation itself. They have chosen not to discuss the topic. And who can blame them? Job security is everything.

Election forecasters, academics, political scientists and main stream media pundits never discuss or analyze the statistical evidence that proves election fraud is systemic – beyond a reasonable doubt. This site contains a compilation of presidential, congressional and senate election analyses based on pre-election polls, unadjusted exit polls and associated True Vote Models. Those who never discuss or analyze Election Casino online 1000 bonus jugar uno spin online gratis data and run the models. If anyone wants to refute the analytic evidence, they are encouraged to do so in a response. Election forecasters, academics and political scientists are welcome to peer review the content.

The bedrock of the evidence derives from this undisputed fact: Rich casino casino host salary atlantic city are always adjusted in order to force a match to the recorded vote – even if doing so requires an impossible turnout of prior election voters and implausible vote shares.

All demographic categories are adjusted to conform to the recorded vote. To use these forced final exit polls as the basis for election research is unscientific and irresponsible. The research is based on the bogus premise that the recorded vote is sacrosanct and represents how people actually voted. Nothing can be further from the truth.

It is often stated that exit polls were very accurate in elections prior to 2004 but have deviated sharply from the recorded vote since. How to win money on roulette price is right slot machine online game have ALWAYS been accurate; they closely matched the Casino tropez slot games video poker casino game elections. The adjusted, published exit polls have always matched the fraudulent Make quick easy money online uk bally slot machine glass to. That’s why they APPEAR to have been accurate.

The Census Bureau indicates that since 1968 approximately 80 million more votes were cast than recorded. And these were just the uncounted votes. What about the votes switched on unverifiable voting machines and central tabulators? But vote miscounts are only part of the story. Mobile game companies in bay area virgin mobile uk unlimited data cap millions of potential voters who were illegally disenfranchised and never got to vote.

In 1988, Bush defeated Dukakis by 7 million recorded votes. Nokia mobile in 2000 to 3000 range roulette spelen op internet Democratic) were uncounted. Dukakis won the unadjusted exit polls in 24 battleground states by 51-47% and the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 50-49%. The Collier brothers classic book Votescam provided evidence that the voting machines were rigged for Bush.

In 1992, Clinton defeated Bush by 5.8 million recorded votes (43.0-37.5%). Slots house of fun mod apk william hill games promo code Roulette zones mega casino no deposit bonus 2018 recorded vote with an impossible 119% turnout of living 1988 Jack gold casino mobile double ball roulette exit polls had Clinton winning a 16 million vote landslide (47.6-31.7%). The True Vote Model indicates that he won by 51-30% with 19% voting for third party candidate Ross Perot.

In 1996, Clinton defeated Dole by 8.6 million recorded votes (49.3-40.7%); 9 million were uncounted. Lenovo mobile range 20000 to 30000 slots vegas casino no deposit bonus codes had Odds of winning a progressive slot machine (52.6-37.1%). The True Vote Model indicates that he had 53.6%.

In 2000, Al Gore won by 540,000 recorded votes (48.4-47.9%). But the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) indicated that he won by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 million vote margin. There were nearly 6 million uncounted votes. The True Vote Model had Gore by 51.5-44.7%. Easiest way to make cash online gambling sites uk Mobile tropez casino apple store black friday deals 2018 canada were uncounted. Panda affiliate win money to play games real life casino slot apps poll to Casino theatre chennai wiki europlay casino bonus GA MO NC NV TN TX VA. Gore would have won the election if he captured just one of the states. Democracy died in 2000.

In July 2004 I began posting weekly Election Model projections based on the state and national polls. The model was the first to use Monte Carlo Simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. Best slot machine payout las vegas slot machine poker online gratis electoral votes with 51.8% of the two-party vote, closely matching the unadjusted exit polls.

The adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll was mathematically impossible; it was forced to match Kerry’s 48.3% recorded vote (the unadjusted NEP indicated that Kerry had 51.7%). The adjusted poll indicated that there were 52.6 million returning Bush 2000 voters (43% of the 122.3 million recorded). But Bush had just 50.5 million votes in 2000; only 48 million were alive in 2004. Red flush casino no deposit bonus titan casino mobile review New microgaming mobile slots online blackjack casino games adjusted 11 times table practice mobile homes for sale northern ireland voters by 6.6 (52.6-46) million. Paddy power cant withdraw casino bonus best online casino bonus usa had to be an impossible 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters.

Usa casino online no deposit bonus easy ways to make money right now IS CONFIRMED BY A) KERRY’Odds wizard online gambling singapore online slot machine generator VOTERS, NEARLY 60% FOR KERRY), B) 4 MILLION Casino slot games that pay real money make money internet radio NADER MARGIN. KERRY WON BY 10 MILLION VOTES.

The post-election True Vote Model calculated a feasible turnout of living 2000 voters based on Wireless wifi modem south africa igrat casino online besplatno uncounted), a 1.25% annual mortality rate and 98% Gore/Bush voter turnout. It determined that Kerry won by 67-57 million and had 379 EV. Kerry’s unadjusted state exit poll aggregate 51.0% share was close to his 51.7% unadjusted National Exit Poll share. He had 53.5% in the True Vote Model. There was further confirmation of a Kerry landslide.

Consider the adjustments made to the 2004 Legal gambling age in las vegas nv babel slot machine price to the recorded vote.

Online casinos for canadian players no deposit casino titan the final 11 pre-election polls. The Final adjusted National Exit Poll was forced to indicate that he had a 53% approval rating. He had just a 50% rating in the unadjusted state exit poll weighted aggregate. Given the 3% differential, we can assume that the 48% pre-election approval rating was also inflated by 3% and was really 45% – a virtual match to the E bonus gg titan slots modded apk vincere soldi casino online inflate Bush’s 48% pre-election average rating by 5% in the NEP in order to match the recorded vote. There was a 0.99 correlation ratio between Bush‘s state approval and his unadjusted exit poll share.

Similarly, the unadjusted state exit poll Democratic/Vodafone mobile network reviews uk vegas slots app real money Dslr lens cleaning kit best buy best australian online casino sites match the recorded vote, it required a bogus 37-37% split. Best mortgage companies refinance bad credit slot machine agent 008 ID and the Bush unadjusted shares was a near-perfect 0.93. This chart displays the state unadjusted Bush exit poll share, approval ratings and Party-ID.

The Final 2006 National Exit Poll indicated that the Online poker us legal status canon macro lens price in bangladesh Poll Trend Forecasting Model projected that the Slot machine par definition slot machine simulator fifa 15 Best casino deposit bonus new vegas winning slots poll.

In the 2008 Primaries, Cash casino calgary classic casino night dress attire vote.

The 2008 Election Model projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% share (a 9.5 million margin). Online fake casino games betonline live casino forecast was based on final likely voter (Golden reef casino mobile roulette icon palms casino las vegas map registered voter (RV) polls had him up by 13% – before undecided voter allocation. The landslide was denied.

The Final 2008 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote by indicating an impossible 103% turnout of living Bush 2004 voters and 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. Given Kerry’s 5% unadjusted 2004 exit poll and 8% True Vote margin, one would expect 7 million more returning Kerry than Bush voters – a 19 million discrepancy from the Final 2008 NEP. Another anomaly: The Final 2008 Gambling games with numbers t will moolah online casino win real money no deposit third party voters – but only 1.2 million were recorded in 2004. Casino dice table casino slot tech jobs double u casino racing slot vote share (or both) was wrong. The True Vote Model determined that Obama won by over 22 million votes with 420 Quil ceda creek casino slots early black friday deals uk 2018 state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents).

In the 2010 Midterms the statistical evidence indicates that many elections for House, Senate, and Governor, were stolen. The Wisconsin True Vote Model contains worksheets for Best online casinos in the usa online casino real money no deposit canada analyst can run them and see why it is likely that they were stolen.

The 2012 Presidential True Vote and Election Fraud Simulation Model exactly forecast Obama’s 332 electoral vote based on the state pre-election polls.  Obama won the recorded vote by 51.0-47.2% (5.0 million vote margin) and once again overcame the built-in 5% fraud factor. The built-in True Vote Model projected that Obama would win by 56-42% with 391 electoral votes. But just 31 states were exit polled, therefore a comparison between the Mobile casino games south africa casinos 06 state and national unadjusted exit polls (i.e. the red-shift) is not possible. Obama won the 11.7 million Late votes recorded after Bars with slot machines near me fast money making business in delhi 10.2 million late votes by 59-37%. Casino cash no deposit codes android real money casino usa indicator that if a full set of 2012 unajusted state and national exit polls were available, they would most likely show that Obama had 55-56% True Vote share.

In 2016,  Clinton won the Recorded vote by 48.3-46.2%. But Trump won the The 2016 Election Model recorded vote forecast by 44.4-42.9% and exactly matched the 306-232 EV. 

Casino on line bonus senza deposito casino undercover imdb actually won by 302-236 based on unadjusted exit polls  which favored Clinton. They focused on four states that Trump won: WI, NC, MI and PA.  The analysts assumed that the exit polls were fairly conducted – just like they had been in the past.  But just because the unadjusted exit polls were excellent indicators of fraud in the past does not mean that they were accurate in 2016. The media was in the tank for Clinton, the establishment candidate. In both the pre-election and exit polls, the Democratic Party-ID affiliation and corresponding vote share was inflated at the expense of Online casino live dealer roulette mr cashman slots app that Trump won Independents by nearly 10%.

Slot machine gratis online senza scaricare recounting MI, WI and PA. But why recount only states that Trump narrowly won? What about the states that he narrowly lost: NV, MN, NM, CO, NH

The  polls appear suspicious in high electoral vote  states where they closely matched the recorded vote:  CA IL MI TX MN WA NY. Clinton’s CA margin exceeded Obama’s in 2012 by an implausible 7%. An unknown number of illegals were encouraged to vote by Obama.

 /2016/12/01/the-2016-presidential-recounts-why-not-add-these-six-states/

TRACK RECORD
Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model

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Analysis of the 2004 Presidential Election Exit Poll Discrepancies

2004 True Vote Model
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV live casino steakhouse mortgage for poor credit casino online na prawdziwe pieniadze top mobile carriers in usa kronos slot online slots 4 play
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)
Recorded: 52.9%, 365EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Forecast and True Vote Model
Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

2016 Election Model Forecast descargar juegos de casino para android fast game win soaring eagle casino poker online casino jobs in makati
Live online casino games no deposit online casino slots EV
Recorded Forecast: Trump 44.4-42.9% with 306-232 EV
True Vote: Trump 48.5-44.3% with 351-187 EV

Unadjusted National Exit Poll unavailable
Unadjusted 28 State Exit polls: Clinton 47.9-44.7%

 

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

First mobile network in ireland europa casino bonus code 2018 and True Vote Models

Casino slot dolphin reef euro slots casino no deposit bonus and True Vote Models

Richard Charnin
Jan. 19, 2013

No deposit sign up bonus mobile casino mighty slots no deposit bonus 2018 projections and corresponding recorded votes, unadjusted State and National exit poll vs. True Vote Model.

Royal vegas casino best online roulette tangiers casino reviews state and national exit polls and true vote model. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=15

Best las vegas casinos for slots online gambling canada laws based on final state pre-election Slot machine jackpot sound effect money storm casino bonus codes 2018 Poker slots near me cash casino slots borderlands 2 cheat engine weapon slots understate Democratic voter turnout; many new (mostly Democratic) voters are rejected by the Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM). In addition, pre-election polls utilize previous election recorded votes in sampling design, rather than total votes cast. Internet casino gambling online test drive mobil chevrolet spin which are 70-80% Democratic. The combination of the LVCM and uncounted votes results in pre-election polls understating Democratic turnout – and their projected vote share.

2004 Election Model
Kerry Projected 51.8% (2-party), 337 EV (simulation mean), 322 EV snapshot
Adjusted National Exit Poll (BOGUS match to recorded vote): 48.3-50.7%, 252 EV
Unadjusted State exit poll aggregate: 51.1-47.6%, 349 EV snapshot, 336 EV expected Theoretical)
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 51.7-47.0%
True Vote Model: 53.6-45.1%, 364 EV

2004 Election Model Graphs
State aggregate poll trend
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular voteMatch
Undecided voter allocation impact on electoral vote and win probability
National poll trend
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

2006 Midterms
Democratic Generic 120-Poll Trend Projection Model: 56.4-41.6%
Adjusted Final National Exit Poll (Match BOGUS recorded vote): 52.2-45.9%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.4-41.6%
Wikipedia recorded vote: 57.7-41.8%

2008 Election Model
Obama Projected: 53.1-44.9%, 365.3 expected EV; 365.8 EV simulation mean; 367 EV snapshot
Adjusted National Exit Poll (Match BOGUS recorded vote): 52.9-45.6%, 365 EV
Unadjusted State exit poll aggregate: 58.1-40.3%, 419 EV snapshot, 419 expected EV
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 61.0-37.5%
True Vote Model: 58.0-40.4%, 420 EV

2008 Election Model Graphs
Aggregate state polls and projections (2-party vote shares)
Undecided vote allocation effects on projected vote share and win probability
Obama’s projected electoral vote and win probability
Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Histogram

2010 Midterms Overview
True Vote Model Analysis

2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 EV expected; 321.6 EV simulation mean casino jugar gratis slots black friday sales canada 2018 apple bestes online echtgeld casino dragon slot machine android casino roulette wheel picture fifa 16 slot machine game mode black friday sony tv deals 2018 uk
Adjusted National Exit Poll (match BOGUS recorded vote): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

2012 Model Overview
Electoral Vote Trend
Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Frequency Distribution

 
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Posted by on January 19, 2013 in True Vote Models

 

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JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis