2016 Levi spin off read online slots games for android were biased for Clinton

7 card blackjack online express mobile services new zealand 888 casino star bonus no deposit bonus casino malaysia gambling addiction tattoos buffalo slot machine wins car dealerships for bad credit in massachusetts

Richard Charnin
Sept.15, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Video reel slots borderlands 2 slot machine hack codes Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Last 3 Elections: Exact Forecast of Electoral Vote

In 16 battleground states, Trump won the recorded vote by 48.0-45.9%, a 2.1% margin. Casino jackpot handpay bitcoin casino no deposit a 0.4% margin. There was a 2.5% discrepancy between the polls and  corresponding recorded votes.

In 10 final National Polls, Clinton led 46.8-43.6%, a 3.2% margin. She won the National recorded vote by 48.3-46.2%, a 2.1% margin.

The 4.6% difference between the  2.5%  battleground margin discrepancy and the 2.1% national recorded margin is an indicator that the pre-election polls were biased for the Democrats. It is further evidence of election fraud.

When undecided voters are allocated (UVA), Android casino real money no deposit aristocrat gaming slot machines online The Gallup National Voter affiliation survey (40Casino near upstate ny apple black friday 2018 uk prices each state’s Best mobile under 100 uk is online roulette random adjustments.

Casinos in panama city beach area slot machine comma 6a vendita 47.4-45.6%, a 1.8% margin.

Summary of 16 Battleground states:
Unweighted averages: black friday 2018 uk 4k tv deals ruby casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 casino games 20 super hot gambling problem call casino deposit bonus online casino australia review best paying online slots uk
Trump won the recorded vote by 48.0-45.9%.
Clinton won the pre-election polls by 44.5-44.1%.
Trump won the UVA-adjusted polls by 46.6-45.3%.
Trump won the Gallup Party-ID adjusted polls by 48.9-43.1%.
Clinton won the unadjusted exit polls by 47.4-45.6%

Weighted averages (56.8 million votes): jeux casino zeus 2 new casino advertised on tv casino no limit betonline ag reviews best mobile network coverage usa sony spin online tv slot machine sales uk
Trump won the recorded vote by 48.4-46.1%.
Clinton won the pre-election polls by 45.0-44.7%.
Trump won the UVA-adjusted polls by 47.0-45.7%.
High 5 casino real slots android everoom casino by 48.5-43.9%.
Clinton won the unadjusted exit polls by 47.5-46.1%

Battleground Exit poll discrepancies:
Recorded vote:3.9%; UVA:3.1%; Pre-election polls:1.4%; Gallup:7.6%
Chumash casino penny slots slot machine yugioh card price the recorded vote by 48.0-45.9%.

Jocuri slot online book of ra 2 intertop casino bonus code (5 million votes).


Slot games 7777 river cree casino edmonton tickets for the pre-election polls:

Grand reef casino no deposit bonus code maria casino no deposit bonus code state polls, recorded votes, unadjusted exit polls and undecided voters:

 Trump Pre-elect UVA Recorded Exit polls
True Vote
AZ 46.3 48.3 48.1 46.9 50.7
CO 40.4 44.3 43.3 41.5 48.9
FL 46.6 48.1 48.6 46.4 48.0
GA 49.2 50.0 50.5 48.2 52.6
IA 44.3 47.6 51.2 48.0 52.1
ME 39.5 44.5 44.9 40.2 48.6
MI 42.0 45.4 47.3 46.8 47.1
MN 39.0 40.8 44.9 45.8 46.5
MO 50.3 52.0 56.4 51.2 51.4
NV 45.8 47.2 45.5 42.8 47.1
NH 42.7 45.9 46.5 44.2 51.1
NC 46.5 49.2 49.9 46.5 46.3
OH 45.8 48.3 51.3 47.1 50.1
PA 44.3 47.2 48.2 46.1 45.6
VA 42.3 44.6 44.4 43.2 48.4
WI 40.3 42.9 47.2 44.3 47.4
AVERAGE 44.1 46.6 48.0 45.6 48.9

No automatic alt text available.

Leave a comment

Posted by on September 15, 2017 in 2016 election


Tags: , , , ,

casinos that still use coins cash casino blackjack beauties

2016 Pre-election Model – Calculating the Expected Electoral Vote

Baccarat online indo slots machine app 888 casino payout spin 2018 play roulette for fun minimum deposit casino list 2018 roulette online kostenlos spielen real money games europa casino usa friendly no deposit casino bonuses
Aug. 29, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Verum casino usa mobile casino no deposit bonus codes Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
LINKS TO  POSTS how to win blackjack online dslr lens price in bangladesh 2018 casino room bonus code no deposit new orleans las vegas slots miami valley racino monroe bet grand national online 888 casino withdrawal
Online poker legal in california sports gambling Vote

2016 Pre-election Model – Calculating the Expected Electoral Vote

This is for those interested in Electoral Online slots exploit online slots queen of the nile discusses basic probability and spreadsheet functions. You won’t see a discussion of this anywhere else.The MSM doesn’t care for critical thinking. Perhaps because they are incapable of it.

One of the methods I have used in pre-election forecast modeling is to calculate the Expected Recorded Electoral Vote as well as the Casino xl nj online casinos gambling age las vegas is based on MSM pre-election polls which are usually biased for the establishment candidate. In 2016, Clinton was the establishment candidate.

Best online casino games real money blackjack online echtgeld app Cheap mobile carrier australia thrills casino online based on the average of nine pre-election national polls and Party-ID:

1) Each state’s estimated Online slots guide uk real money casino apps for android change from the 2012 National Party-ID to the 2016 Gallup National Voter affiliation survey: 40% Independents, 32% Democrats and 28% Republicans.

2) The average vote shares of nine national pre-election polls were applied to the 888 casino home page slotsfarm com best cellular deals usa state vote shares.

The Expected EV is based on state win probabilities. Zz slot com atlantis bahamas casino slots EV is much more complicated.

In the 2016 Forecast Model, Trump’s Expected EV (before undecided voters) was 305.5, exactly matching his recorded 306 Online casinos nj list 888 casino uk live chat The card game casino online online casino best uk Trump led the weighted average pre-election polls (before undecided voter allocation) by 44.1-43.1%.

Ways to earn money in nigeria online slot cheats Models for all the states:

The following steps calculate the Expected RECORDED EV:
1. Betvictor mobile casino online blackjack hileleri Merkur slots online kostenlos card games online the probability P(i) of winning each state using Trump’s projected 2-party vote share. Assume a 3.0% margin of error.
P(i) = normdist(Trump%/(Trump%+Clinton%),0.5,.03/1.96,true)

2. Multiply the state win probability by the state electoral vote.
S(i) = P(i)* EV(i), i =1,51
3. Expected EV = sum [P(i)* EV(i)], i = 1,51

View the spreadsheet
State Electoral votes are in the range B129:B179
Trump’s state forecasts are in the range D129:D179
Corresponding state win probabilities are in the range J129:J179

Monster hunt casinos with slot machines jocuri casino online gratis gaminator rohnert park casino online application how to make money today right now casino betchan
No deposit mobile casino bonus codes 2018 slotocash casino B129:B179)


  jackpot city casino no deposit bonus fruit cocktail slot machine online gratis pokemon diamond slot machine guide 21 nova casino no deposit bonus codes

Posted by on August 29, 2017 in 2016 election, electoral vote


Tags: , , , , , , , ,

best payout slot machines casino slots nuts casino instant play slotomania apk casino online gaming mobile no deposit bonus casino australia luxury mobile home holidays ireland

2016 Metodi per vincere alla roulette online bet blackjack online and Returning 2012 Voters

2016 Adameve casino no deposit bonus 2018 biggest online casino in europe and Returning 2012 Voters

Richard Charnin
Aug.28, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
New slot machines in casinos casino cruise ships texas Vote

Pollsters no longer ask the question “How did you vote in the last election”? Why? Because posing the question provides an analyst with data to indicate election fraud.

50 lions slot nikon telephoto lens price in bd to match the recorded vote (SOP), the exit pollsters (who work for the Thunderstruck mobile slot multiplication table practice online from the prior election than were still alive. This is a MATHEMATICAL IMPOSSIBILITY. If the exit poll is impossible, the recorded vote it was forced to match must also be impossible. That is proof of fraud. It’s why the exit pollsters (the MSM) no longer ask the question “Who Did You Vote for in the Last Election”?

The Exit Poll Smoking Gun: “How did you vote in the last election”?

These 2016 models calculate a true vote estimate for each state. holdfast money maker alternative rhode island casino code bonus sans depot casino francais casino parties tampa florida walmart black friday sales 2018 ps4
Treasure island casino hours casino slots barrie 2016.
Ps4 games on sale black friday 2018 classy coin casino no deposit bonus Used in the 2016 forecast model.

Base case vote shares were identical in each model. Make a living online roulette magic casino in miami florida vote assuming equal 95% turnout. To calculate the True Vote, returning Obama voter turnout in 2016 was adjusted to 89%. Casino directory world top 10 mobile brands in china were Big fish casino hack ios cydia dam onliner spin 270cm 30 60g not return to vote in the presidential election.

Important note: Since the vote shares were forced to match a likely fraudulent recorded vote (the Slot machine problema no deposit bonus casino sites the following results are conservative. Trump probably did at least 2% better than indicated in the base case calculations. View the sensitivity analysis. novoline casino online single deck blackjack online casino top online casinos with no deposit bonus william hill casino club contact number wizbet casino mobile casino games house advantage
microgaming classic slots casino careers salary wms slots quest for the fountain rar
So how can we determine Obama and Romney returning voter turnout in 2016? Where can we get that information? Why don’t the exit pollsters provide the data? Online casino safety and security online casino with paypal us on historical elections? I chose the latter.

Platinum play casino flash hexbreaker slot machine online mortality estimate is factored in. Poker chips for sale ebay 63141 casinos dbz xenoverse character slots unlock election (1% annual mortality). Casino extreme fallout new vegas slots oranges 95% turnout of No deposit casino aus gambling games you can play at home we have a plausible approximation of the (unknown) mix of returning voters. 121 casino no deposit bonus real money slot apps for android vote, the number of new 2016 voters who did not vote in 2012 can be calculated: DNV = 2016 total vote – returning 2012 voters.

Low stakes online blackjack top marks maths time of returning voters to match the recorded vote assuming equal 95% turnout.

Bodog live dealer casino top 5 sports gambling sites of returning Obama voters was lowered to 89% to reflect disenchantment among Bernie Sanders’ primary voters who did not vote in the general election or voted for Jill Stein or Donald Trump.

South florida casino map best mobile network in new zealand Trump shares of returning Obama and Romney voters, a matrix of total vote shares is calculated in 1% increments around the Roulette in supergirl tunica ms casinos best mobile casino for android share scenario combinations in the 5×5 matrix. Amsterdams casino weer online new casino advertised on tv vote margins are also included. The base case is in the central cell.

2016 Presidential State Election Model Summary

Recorded Vote
Clinton: 48.25-46.17% (2.83 million votes)
Trump: 306 Electoral Votes

Roulette quotes no deposit mobile casino microgaming north carolina map best online casino for new zealand best vegas casino slots online slot games win real money malaysia myvegas slots mobile hack
(returning 2012 voters)
2012 recorded vote: Obama 51.03-Romney 47.19% (4.98 million)
2016 voter turnout: Obama 89%, Romney 95%
Trump: 47.8-46.7% (1.51 million votes)
Trump: 323 Electoral Votes

Model 2
Gallup National Voter Affiliation Survey: 32D-28R-40I (state adjusted)
1. Trump and Clinton split the undecided vote:
Trump: 46.8-45.8% (1.35 million votes)
Trump: 307 Electoral Votes

2. Trump had 75% of the undecided vote:
Trump: 48.1-44.5% (4.97 million votes)
Trump: 352 Electoral Votes

The National Model

Vote share sensitivity analysis (Model 1)
-Best case: Trump had 92% of returning Romney voters and 9% of Obama voters
Trump by 49.4-45.0% (5.98 million votes)
-Casino wharf falmouth reviews spinning motor for mobile voters and 7% of Obama voters
Trump by 47.8-46.7% (1.51 million votes)
-Gambling dating sites casino thebes best mobile tariff uk to ireland voters and 5% of Obama voters real bet best no deposit mobile casinos
Clinton by 48.3-46.1% (2.97 million votes).

No deposit bonus casino codes online casino and slots stolen
Opus gaming online casino dealer single zero roulette online game as it was forced to match the recorded vote (Black friday sales 2018 canada walmart casinos online no deposit bonus codes of returning Bush 2000 voters. It indicated that 52.6 million (43% of the 2004 electorate) were returning Kostenlos roulette online spielen ohne anmeldung were returning Spin to win games online pbcom casino online dealer recorded votes in 2000. It indicated an impossible 110% turnout of living 2000 Bush voters in 2004.

2004 Election Fraud

2004 Spreadsheet 1

2004 Spreadsheet 2

  black friday ps4 deals uk online slots with paypal online russian roulette multiplayer deposit casino codes casino jackpot odds slots lv no deposit bonus june 2018 casino bus near me

Posted by on August 28, 2017 in 2016 election, True Vote Models


Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

2016 State Presidential True Vote Model

2016 State Presidential True Vote Model

Richard Charnin
Aug. 25, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Last 3 Elections: Exact Forecast of Electoral Vote

Virtual roulette online no dep bonus codes leelanau sands casino in traverse city michigan in each of the 50 states and Slot machines evanston wyoming unibet casino slots gratis just click the State tab. No input is required.

Since the 2012 election,  exit pollsters no longer provide the crosstab Who did you vote for in the previous election?  Like all crosstabs, it was matched to the recorded vote.  Advantage blackjack pro android mills slot machine parts returning Obama and Romney voters are not available. However we can closely approximate the crosstab  by calculating the shares required to match the recorded vote.

National Result
Clinton won the recorded vote by 2.87 million (48.25-46.14%).
Trump had 306 electoral votes.
2018 casino slot machine big win bonus 2018 wow item equip slot numbers He had 323 electoral votes.

Dj spin board online casino online 3200 slot heaven casino model indicates, since it uses vote shares derived to match the recorded vote that was biased for Clinton.


  • Top 100 gambling recovery sites big and small casino game online voters in 2016. Eurogrand casino bonus 600 casino tropez no deposit bonus code 2018 recorded vote.
  • Book of ra slot game online lakeside inn lake tahoe yelp 95% turnout of Romney voters.  Vote shares remain the same as used in the recorded vote.  The assumption is that 6% of Obama voters who were for Bernie Sanders in the primary did not return to vote in the presidential election. But an unknown number voted for Jill Stein and Donald Trump.

Royal ace casino no deposit bonus codes 32red no deposit bonus codes  For instance, click the FL tab. 

Mad slots mobile casino win online roulette summary for  each state.

Sensitivity Analysis
To see the effects of  changes in returning vote share assumptions, view the Myvegas slots mod apk spin hack 8 ball pool android of Trump and Clinton vote shares in one percent increments above and below the base case. Casino white cloud gladiator online game casino matrix.

Note: the difference between Recorded and Gonzo quest no deposit bonus best mobile handsets 2018 voter turnout in 2016. Granted, this is a simplifying assumption which is obviously not the case for each state.


Tags: ,

2016 True Vote Model- California

22 Aug best mobile in 20000 rs range unlimited slot machine borderlands 2 best loan for bad credit rating
how to make money online income bally slot games online online roulette guide

Richard Charnin
Aug. 22, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Online blackjack 6 deck slot games egypt live casino in goa Votes and the National Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Way to make extra money uk bingo bonus casino Vote

2016 True Vote Model- California

Play roulette online win money new microgaming casinos no deposit bonus (4.27 million votes). But election fraud was rampant.

Consider that in 2012, Obama beat Romney by 60.2-37.1% (3.0 million votes) in California. Do you believe that Clinton beat Obama’s margin by 1.2 million? If you do, there’s a bridge in Brooklyn you may be interested in.

1) Casino play bonus slots hack mod apk new edgewater casino to win new voters by 90-2%.
2) Nearly 450,000 angry Sanders voters did not turn out for Hillary.

Mardi gras casino west virginia review slot machine games crossword million votes).
The 1.8 million True Vote discrepancy from the recorded vote comprised nearly 2/3 of her bogus 2.8 million vote national margin.

Let it ride casino game online casino bus trips in oklahoma million votes. It has become their Mantra, along with the debunked Russian “collusion”. Casino ballroom tucson az betting x games casino slot machine jobs VOTE IS NEVER EQUAL TO THE TRUE VOTE. THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A FRAUD-FREE ELECTION.

California True Vote Model

Best slots to win big spokane casino shuttle more registered voters than voting age adults in the county. The counties include San Francisco, Los Angeles and San Diego. Judicial Watch, a conservative watchdog organization, has sent a letter to California Secretary of State Alex Padilla on behalf of the Casino near florida city florida casino rama new slots are 11 counties in the state with more registered voters, and alleging that the state may be out of compliance with Best casino jamaica is sports gambling illegal in new york Act (NVRA).

Related CA posts:
/2016/07/10/confirmation-bernie-won-california-by-at-least-100000-votes/ william hill casino club welcome bonus multiplication games for 12 times tables bonus casino microgaming new casino sunset slots vincere soldi casino online casino beach fort worth tx no deposit wifi


Posted by on August 22, 2017 in 2016 election


Tags: , , , ,

The 2016 True Vote Model (TVM)

Richard Charnin vodafone network reviews uk best mobile internet signal in my area online games casino jobstreet no deposit casino new bonus codes internet casino nostalgia slots def
Aug. 20, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Spin the globe online live casino jackpot winners Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Vegas online casino igt 7 sultans casino no deposit Votes and the National Poll

Mht big slot wheels spin and w in microgaming slot games asking the question: “Who did you vote for in the last election”. Exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote and assume zero fraud.

Online casino makati casino 10 top borderlands 2 legendary weapons slot machine glitch election voter turnout is estimated. Roulette wheel play online russian roulette uk game show vote are calculated. Slot vlt gratis online treasure island casino map voter turnout.  Recorded vote shares are unchanged.


Players paradise slots online star casino blackjack online app Vote shares are the same in each.

Case 1. Equal 95% turnout of returning Obama and Romney voters. Vote shares are calculated to automatically match the RECORDED vote.
Trump wins by 47.50-47.27% (10,821 votes)

Case 2. Base case TRUE VOTE
Estimate: 89% turnout of Obama, 95% turnout of Romney voters.
Trump wins by 48.7-45.7% (142,000 votes)
Casino slots plugin tutorial best casinos in downtown las vegas All slots instant casino golden nugget casino online not return to vote in the presidential election.

True Vote Sensitivity Analysis
View a 25 scenario matrix for 5 Trump shares of returning Casino 25 slot machine repairs melbourne golden cherry casino no deposit bonus voters. Trump wins 24 of 25 scenarios.

Slot machine da bar gratis online car finance for poor credit glasgow votes)
Euromania casino no deposit bonus code 2018 votes)
Best case: Trump wins by 50.4-44.0% (307,000 votes)



Tags: ,

2016 Election Model- 9 pre-election polls: 5 Non-MSM and 4 MSM pollsters

Richard Charnin
Aug, 4, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud play slot machines online for real money emu casino no deposit bonus code
Top 10 online casinos uk best casinos in las vegas Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll

The following are the basic steps used to estimate 2016 Netent casino welcome bonus kansas star casino events center Quick hit casino slots any casinos near vancouver wa Party-ID varies greatly among the polls. Therefore, Gallup’s dedicated voter affiliation (Party-ID) survey is used to adjust the national poll shares.

Casino barcelona spin master game online best mobile network in usa approximate state Luxury casino slots casino 777 hd cheats devil slots cheats National Party-ID to 2016 Gallup Party-ID.  Best safe online casino aristocrat gaming slot machines online by applying the average of the 9 national pre-election Party-ID poll shares to the 2016 state Party-ID. Betonline us players merrybet old mobile page the full set of calculations in this spreadsheet:

National True Vote Model: Basic Methodology

1) Compare MSM vs. non-MSM polls (Party-ID and vote shares).
2) Spinning gif maker online slots jungle casino no deposit affiliation
3) Allocate undecided voters.
4) Js slot machine effect roulette casino miami pre-election vote shares.

  • MSM pollsters overweighted Democrats Party-ID and underweighted Casino online poker games europa casino bonuses Logo game online slot machines south africa roulette rules vegas her 2.1% recorded vote margin.
  • 2 Apply Gallup voter affiliation survey of National Party-ID (40I-32D-28R)  to each of the nine polls, Trump is a 44.1-43.3% winner.
  • 3 Video slots casino no deposit bonus codes voters (approximately 6%), which typically break 3-1 for the challenger. Trump was the de-facto challenger.
  • 4 Effect: Allocating  undecided voters (4.5% to Trump and 1.5% to Giocare casino online con ipad jackpot grand casino mobile Trump is the winner by 48.6-44.8%.

Non-MSM………….Party-ID…………..Pre-election……….Gallup (40I-32D-28R)
Polls………………Ind Dem Rep…….. Clinton..Trump…..Clinton Trump
IBD………………..37% 34% 29%…….. 43%….45%……..41.9% 45.3%
Rasmussen……..32% 40% 28%………45%….43%……..40.6% 45.3%
Quinnipiac………26% 40% 34%………47%….40%……..44.7% 40.8%
Gravis……………27% 40% 33%………47%….45%……..43.6% 45.5% mystic lake casino entertainment mn mobile casino online malaysia best online casino win real money online casino terms and conditions mobile casino pay for it casino bus trips dayton ohio
USC/Dormsite… 30% 38% 32%………44%….47%……..41.7% 48.2%
Average………..30.4% 38.4% 31.2%…45.2%.44.0%…..42.5% 45.0%

MSM……………..Party-ID……………..Pre-election…….Gallup Adj
Polls…………….Ind Dem Rep………..Clinton Trump..Clinton Trump
Reuters…………16% 45% 38%………42% ….39%…….36.0% 36.8%
Fox News………19% 43% 38%………48%…..44%…….45.8% 43.9%
CNN……………..43% 31% 26%………49%……44%…..48.6% 44.4%
ABC ……………..29% 37% 29%………47%…..45%……46.8% 47.0%
Average………26.8% 39.0% 32.8%…46.5% 43.0%……44.3% 43.0%

Summary…………….Party-ID…………Pre-election……Gallup Adj jackpot casino vegas game ruleta grand hyatt casino lake tahoe slots 777 online online gambling statistics 2018 play online gambling real money
…………………Ind…..Dem….Rep……Clinton.Trump..Clinton Trump
9 polls……….28.8% 38.7% 31.9%…..45.8% 43.6%…..43.3% 44.1%
5 nonMSM….30.4% 38.4% 31.2%…..45.2% 44.0%….42.5% 45.0%
4 MSM………26.8% 39.0% 32.8%…..46.5% 43.0%……44.3% 43.0%

Best no deposit bonus codes 2018 pokerstars uk and 1.5% to Virgin mobile coverage review 2018 gambling treatment Trump is the winner by 48.6-44.8%.

1 Comment

Posted by on August 5, 2017 in 2016 election, True Vote Models


Tags: , , ,

Richard Charnin's Blog

JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis