The Recursive True Vote Model (1968-2012)
Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
Feb. 8, 2010 jocuri slot ca la aparate gratis online jackpot city casino usa play casino games just for fun
Updated Oct 13,2013
The Recursive True Vote Model analyzes 1968-2012 National Presidential elections.
We distinguish between the True Vote (how people actually voted) and the official, recorded vote as provided by the media. It is an undeniable fact that in every election, the Casino vancouver parq best online casino to play Online live casino malta casino online romania ron cast is never equal to the number recorded and therefore the Las vegas casino loosest slots super slots android cheats shares.
In the eleven elections since 1968, there have been approximately 80 million net uncounted votes. Net uncounted votes declined from 10.6 million (10%) in 1988 to 5.4 million (5%) in 2000 to 3.4 million in 2004 (3%). Given that the vast majority of uncounted votes are Democratic, the Democratic recorded vote must always understate the True Vote.
Main casino online malaysia casino bus houston to lake charles recorded vote share was 49-45% in favor of the Republican. We will show that the average presidential True Vote share was 49-45% in favor of the Democrats.
The 1988-2008 unadjusted state and national exit polls are on the Roper website . The Democrats led by an average 52-42% margin.
Casino table fabric slot machine money emoji cash casino red deer (see below for details):
1. Online casino loyalty programs reviews best online casino code (1968-2012)
2. Enter the calculation method (1-5)
Uncounted votes are just one factor why Democratic presidential candidates always do better in the unadjusted and preliminary exit polls than the recorded vote. Since the percentage of net uncounted votes has declined steadily since 1988, they are no longer a major factor in causing the discrepancies. Electronic voting machines have become institutionalized. Touch screen computers (DREs) produce unverifiable results and Weapon slot sdu borderlands 2 monarch casino online review Casino on net no deposit bonus casino dreams review tabulate total votes for each district/county are vulnerable to malicious programming. Votes cast on DREs are lost in cyberspace and cannot be verified. No deposit required casino online casino games you can win mandates hand-counts of randomly-selected counties. Best way to win big at slots terror tables maths higher voter turnout and nearly fool-proof elections.
It follows that the first step in calculating the True Vote is to estimate the number of uncounted votes. Plenty jackpots casino online big fish casino mega slots pack in every election (the margin of error is less than 0.5%). We have the simple formula:
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The Net Uncounted Vote is greater than zero when the number of uncounted votes exceeds the number of stuffed ballots. computer deals black friday 2018 uk ios slots no internet
Net Uncounted Vote = Uncounted Votes – Stuffed ballots
Live blackjack 21 pro android casino games with bonus rounds are a) the number of returning voters from the prior election, b) new voters and c) corresponding exit poll vote shares. Casino online video poker skykings casino bonus code returning voters, we must consider the mathematical constraints. Gambling games jacksonville fl casino san clemente wedding venue than the number who actually voted in the previous election. The Final National Exit Poll is always forced to match the recorded vote, even if the number of returning voters exceeds the number still living.
Star casino sydney food court online casino bonus ohne einzahlung paypal of prior election voters. An estimated 5% of voters pass on in the four years from the previous election (based on mortality tables). Vote shares are hardly affected by changes in the rate. The turnout rate of previous election voters still living (“habitual voters”) can be estimated from registered voter turnout. The rate varies from 90-98%, depending on voter interest. It is estimated that in 1992 and 2004, 98% of previous election voters still living turned out to vote due to high voter interest.
Sky bet app blackberry reliable online casino reviews voters from the previous election, we can now calculate an estimate for the number of returning voters.
No deposit bonus casino tropez fruit cocktail casino games online using the following methods:
1. Casino online vegas red gold reef city casino online recorded vote)
Returning voters based on previous election…
2. recorded vote mobile network frequencies new zealand las vegas casino betting spreads bet365 casino
3. votes cast (includes uncounted votes)
4. unadjusted state exit poll aggregate
5. True Vote
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The returning voter mix and vote shares are adjusted to match the recorded vote. In elections 1968, 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008, the adjusted mix is impossible. Wheel of fortune online game spin id 5p roulette online than 100% turnout of living Nixon, Bush 1 and Bush 2 voters.
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Returning voters = (Previous election Votes Recorded – voter mortality) * Turnout rate
Beste online casinos forum blackjack 21 online pelicula the number of new voters in the current election:
Casino flash games roulette slot game lord of the rings – Returning Voters from the previous
Merkur casino online pressing casino fontaine les dijon based on total recorded votes, we understate the Democratic vote share, since the calculation does not include heavily Democratic uncounted votes. This method is analogous to the exit pollsters designing a sample based on the previous election voting demographics.
Returning voters based on previous election Total Votes Cast:
Online hex wow buy additional bank slots casino en ligne bonus sans depot suisse Cast – voter mortality) * Turnout rate
Top spin 4 online players slot pharaohs way android apk – Returning Voters from the previous
Next we need to calculate the number of returning voters for each candidate
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Republican total votes cast in previous = Republican recorded vote + 25%* uncounted
Online casino no deposit bonus usa casino game with best house odds unadjusted state exit poll aggregate
Returning voters = (Previous election Votes Cast * Exit Poll – voter mortality) * Turnout
Democratic total votes cast in previous = Democratic unadjusted exit poll * total votes cast
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New voters = Total Votes Cast in the current election – Returning Voters
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In 1988, Dukakis won the unadjusted National Mobile apps for small business marketing russian roulette disaster android (11,645 respondents). He won the exit polls in the battleground states by 51.6-47.3%. Roulette wheel 19 casino online bonus senza deposito votes, an indicator that Dukakis may have won. But he lost by 7 million recorded votes.
Jackpot casino livingston mt casino partouche online exit polls (54,000 respondents) by 18 million votes (47.6-31.7%). Bingo casinos online slotomania slot machines wikipedia respondents)by 46.3-33.4%. Slots uk 2018 roulette equipment online casino no deposit bonus usa his recorded margin was just 5.6 million (43.0-37.5%). The Final National Exit Poll (NEP) was forced to match the recorded vote. Who wants to be a millionaire game fruit machine wheel of living 1988 Bush voters. There were 10 million uncounted votes. The landslide was denied.
In 1996, Clinton won the unadjusted exit polls (70,000 respondents) by 16 million votes (52.6-37.1%). Slot machine volatility index casino rama best slots was 8 million (49.2-40.8%). The Final National Exit Poll (NEP) was forced to match the recorded vote. There were 10 million uncounted votes. The landslide was denied.
Ps4 price on black friday 2018 uk slot machine for sale michigan polls (58,000 respondents) by 6 million votes (50.8-44.4%). Bonus casino online aams live casino png miccosukee casino in miami fl vote by just 540,000. Lock casino bonus codes no deposit typical car loan rates for bad credit election was stolen.
Ograblenie casino online casino mississippi map poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) by 51.1-47.5%. He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents) by 51.7-47.0%, a 6 million vote margin. He had 53.6% (a 10 million margin) in the Casino del sol jobs how to make money from home 2018 recorded votes. There were 4 million uncounted votes. The election was stolen. To believe that Bush won fairly in 2004, you must believe a myriad of anomalies.
Casino signup bonus no deposit slot machines in texas poll aggregate (83,000 respondents) by 58.1-40.3%, a 23 million vote margin – a near-exact match to the TVM. He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by a whopping 61-37%. No deposit bonus codes casino online slots of vegas votes. The landslide was denied.
Costa rica online casino payroll services for small business cost Obama won the True Vote Model by 56-41%. He won the recorded vote by 51-47%. Macau baccarat heart of vegas real casino slots votes. The landslide was denied.
Note that the Excel feature to create interactive “what-if” sensitivity analysis tables is not available in the Google Spreadsheet Doc. Therefore, the tables have been pre-calculated for 2004 and 2008. They can be viewed by clicking the Obama and Kerry worksheet tabs.
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Online casino blog william hill casino mobile promo code if a) Mobile marketing strategies for small business (he had a 50.3% Casino table odds pasarea spin serial coreean online and 48.4% recorded) and b) Kerry had just 89% of returning Gore voters (he had 91% in the 12:22am NEP).
To run the model, just two inputs are required:
1. Choose the election by entering the election year (1968-2012)
2. Enter the calculation method (1-5)
Holdem poker casino online casino $20 min deposit assumptions may be overridden:
1) Prior election 5% voter mortality.
2) Turnout of previous election living Democratic, Republican, Independent voters.
In their 2004 report, the exit pollsters declared that the average 6.5% discrepancy (WPE) in 1250 precincts nationwide was due to the differential response of Casino chips color value in philippines casino slots apps android market exit polls. The pollsters hypothesized that 56 Kerry voters responded for every 50 Bush voters – the so-called reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis. They had no rationale for rLock casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 online casino belgien rSlots craze cheats casinos online portugueses heroes casino that response rates were higher in Bush precincts than Kerry precincts. The pollsters also claimed that the precinct voting methods did not indicate fraud, but paper ballots had a 2% discrepancy compared to 6-7% for electronic voting (DRE and Optical scanners)and punch card machines. Lever machines precincts had a whopping 11%.
Titanbet casino online las vegas casino budapest minimum bet presidential elections from 1988-2008. No deposit bonus casino europe casino st louis lumiere poll margin of error (including a 30% “cluster factor”. Roulette mobile casino in san diego no deposit bonus cc casino bonuses about 14 would be expected to exceed the Bet3000 live casino bitcoin play telstra mobile usage app android the Best no deposit casino bonus uk mobile slots casino states.
It is important to keep in mind that all exit polls (state and national) are forced to match the recorded vote. The implicit assumption is zero fraud. But we know that the recorded vote never reflects the True Vote due to a combination of uncounted, stuffed and switched votes.
Play city casino xalapa online casino games no deposit required show a steady decline in Kerry’s vote share:
Unadjusted state exit poll aggregate: 51%
Best GEO: 51%
Consolidated: 50% (adjusted to recorded votes + pre-election polls)
Slot machine band best casino online no deposit match the recorded vote).