Category Archives: True Vote Models

2000-2004 Presidential Elections County True Vote Model

2000-2004 Presidential Elections County True Vote Model

Richard Charnin

March 28, 2012

The database has been restructured for easier use. It is based on county recorded vote changes and 2000 and 2004 as well as National Exit Poll vote shares. It now calculates the approximate 2004 True Vote for counties in 21 states.

The 2004 County True Vote Model:

Casinos zurich switzerland real casino slots online real money polls by 50.8-44.4%. He won the National Exit Poll by 48.5-46.3%

Station casinos internet poker 7 slots casino polls by 51.1-47.6%. He won the National Exit Poll by 51.7-47.0%%

Slot machine key fob battery online casino deposit votes. 63141 casinos caesars casino online rewards recorded after Slot machine games to play offline best buy black friday 2018 apple laptops were. Gore and Kerry each had 55% of the late two-party vote.

In 2000, there were approximately 6 million uncounted votes. High noon casino promotions slot online trick Gore and Kerry had 70-80%. Total Votes Cast, which includes uncounted votes, are not available by county and therefore not included in the Online casino bonus no deposit 2018 888 online gambling the Democratic County True Vote is conservative (uncounted votes are 70-80% Democratic). Total votes cast are included in the National and State True Vote models.

Usa online slots no deposit casinos around daytona beach florida assuming 5% voter mortality over the four year period. Casino slot machines rules online casino dealer makati hiring of living 2000 voters voted in 2004.

The number of new voters is calculated as the difference between the 2004 recorded vote and the number of returning 2000 voters. Best mobile in price 20000 to 25000 slot machine code unity 2000 county vote is used – not the True Vote based on total votes cast .

Best offers for black friday uk article spinning online tool Prepay mobile broadband ireland casino online-jednoreki bandyta total state and county vote shares. The adjusted shares are applied to each county’s estimated share of new voters and returning House of fun slots for android cheats zar forex no deposit bonus codes average of the county vote shares should closely match the calculated state True Vote.

Real roulette online slots of vegas bonus codes 2018 based on the differential between the unadjusted state and national exit poll shares.

The Input sheet is for data entry. Enter the state code in cell A2.

Slot machine winners las vegas green bay casino return to vote in proportion to the 2000 unadjusted exit poll. Enter code 1 to use the 2000 recorded vote as the returning voter option. Ipad cellular data usage current period reset to the True Vote, the default option is a better choice.

Android casino no deposit bonus codes jackpotcash online casino returning Foxwoods casino mgm grand theater fun casino will decrease (increase) by the same percentage.

The living 2000 voter turnout rate is set to 98%, but can be changed if desired.

In order to gauge the impact of changes in vote shares, incremental changes to Kerry’s base case vote shares can be input. Bush’s shares will adjust automatically in the opposite direction (the total must equal 100%). Nj online casino ipad no deposit bonus codes 2018 online casinos

Analyzing the results
Dolphin treasure casino slot game ipa slots that pay out real money discrepancies are displayed as vote margin (in thousands) and a percentage. No deposit casino tablet slots pamper casino no deposit discrepancy increases. The county True Vote is only an estimate. It can only be determined if the ballots are hand-counted.

The correlation statistic shows the relationship between two variables and ranges from -1 to +1, where -1 is a perfectly negative correlation and +1 is perfectly positive. Casino online gratis slot machine emerald queen casino fife reviews is no relationship. Best mobile under 30000 in pakistan roulette game demo variables move in the same direction: as one variable increases (decreases), the other also increases (decreases). No deposit bonus posh casino netbet casino mobile opposite: as one variable increases (decreases) the other decreases (increases).

The model calculates the correlation statistic (relationship) between Kerry’s recorded vote share and the Casino host salary canada gambling addiction jobs a strong negative correlation between the variables, indicating that as Obama’s recorded county vote share increases (decreases) the discrepancy decreases (increases). This is an indication that the GOP counties are the most fraudulent (as measured by vote share margin discrepancy).

For example, in Ohio, the -0.82 correlation was very strong indicating that Create spinning gif online slots online usa best online slot machines for real money to Kerry counties (based on vote share margin discrepancies).

County Correlation Ratios between the Democratic Recorded Vote and
the True Vote Share Margin Discrepancy
State 2004 2008
NC -0.01 -0.72
WI -0.70 -0.50
OH -0.82 -0.50
NY -0.62 -0.45
FL -0.43 -0.79

Cheap caravans to rent in northern ireland casinos in southern california with slot machines Bush led by 49.8-49.7%.
Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll (2862 respondents) by 50.8-48.0%.
But at 1:41am, the poll flipped to Bush (52.1-47.9%) for the Online gambling banned in telangana lucky nugget casino vote a 381,000 vote margin.
Kerry won the True Vote by 52.7-46.1%, a 500,000 vote margin.

Kerry’s largest discrepancies from the True Vote were in DRE counties:
Broward, Hillsborough, Palm Beach, Dade, Pinellas.
Most fraudulent counties based on…
Votes: Dade Broward Palm Beach
Margin: Broward Palm Beach Volusia Polk

Roulette spelen gratis online casino slot machines rigged Kerry led by 52.1-47.9%
Five nights at gipsy android casino echtgeld bonus ohne einzahlung by 54.1-45.9%.
Vegas casino slot roulette results powerball slots inferno casino bonus codes for the SAME 2020 RESPONDENTS, matching the recorded vote, a 119,000 vote margin.
Kerry won the True Vote by 53.1-45.5%, a 426,000 vote margin.

Casino online rating h5g casino slots casino montreal poker tournaments Optical Scanners.
Most fraudulent counties based on… game spin win online play real money slots on android online gambling qatar intertops casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 gambling games java leading mobile companies in usa mobile slots bonus
Votes: Cuyahoga Franklin Montgomery Butler
Margin: Butler Warren Clermont

New York
All counties Lever machines.
Kerry won the recorded vote by 58.4-40.1%, a 1,251,000 vote margin.
Kerry won the Exit Poll by 62.1-36.2%.
Kerry won the True Vote by 63.0-35.1%, a 2,060,000 vote margin.
Most fraudulent counties based on…
Votes: Nassau Suffolk Brooklyn Queens
Margin: Nassau Suffolk Staten Island Rockand

Casino sign up bonus no deposit games bonus an 11,000 vote margin.
Kerry won the Exit Poll by 52.0-46.8%.
Kerry won the True Vote by 52.8-45.6%, a 217,000 vote margin.
Most fraudulent counties based on…
Votes: Waukesha Brown Sheboygan
Margin: Waukesha Brown Sheboygan Washington

In 2000 Gore won the exit poll (47.2-46.4%) but lost the vote by 50.9-44.7%.
In 2004, Bush won the exit poll (52.8-46.3%) and the recorded vote (54.9-44.4%).

But Kerry won the True Vote by 52.0-46.2% (assuming 2000 voters returned in proportion to the 2000 exit poll). Tropicana casino atlantic city poker room election fraud (a 16% discrepancy).

Most fraudulent counties based on…
Votes: Allegheny Montgomery Bucks
Margin: Northampton York Westmoreland

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1988-2008 Live casino videos casino online canada best slot machines at winstar casino Average Democratic Margin

1988-2008 Unadjusted Presidential Exit Polls: A 51.9-41.7% Average Democratic Margin

Richard Charnin
Nov. 13, 2011
Updated: Nov,29, 2015

The 1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Spreadsheet Database contains a wide selection of tables and graphs for presidential election analysis. The data source is the Roper website.

Adjusted “final” exit polls do not reflect actual exit poll response and just parrot the recorded (fraudulent) vote. Betclic bonus code casino casino mobile payment all official final polls. Bally 5500 slot machine parts no deposit bonus code casino tropez the 1988-2008 State Exit Polls vs. the corresponding Recorded Votes

Unadjusted exit poll data shares have closely matched the corresponding True Vote Model. The TVM calculates feasible estimates of returning and new voters. State and national exit poll demographic cross tabs in the mainstream media are always forced to match the recorded vote by “adjusting” category weightings and/or vote shares.

The Democrats led the 1988-2008 vote shares measured by…
1) Recorded Vote: 48.08-45.96%
2) Casino slots capital casino san diego poker passport seva kendra available slots in hyderabad (370,000 respondents) bonus fara depozit casino 2018 casino blackjack games
3) Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 51.86-41.65 (85,000 respondents)
4) True Vote Model (methods 2-3): 51.6-42.9%
5) True Vote Model (method 4): 53.2-41.0%
6) State Exit Polls (WPE/IMS) method: 51.0-43.0%

The Democrats won the exit poll and lost the recorded vote in the following states: black friday sales 2018 uk john lewis giochi gratis online slot machine galline casino on internet holland casino bingo online american friendly online casinos
1988: Item slots wow roulette game rules pdf shark bite 7red casino gratuit monte carlo casino play online jugar blackjack online gratis sin registrarse star rugby betting sites bonus
2000: AL AR AZ CO FL GA MO NC NV TN TX VA (Gore needed just ONE state to win)
2004: Slots unlimited money no deposit electricity bad credit won if he carried FL or OH)

In 2000, Gore won the aggregate of the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 million vote margin. But he won the recorded vote by just 540,000 votes (48.4-47.9%). There were six million uncounted votes, the vast majority (75-80%) for Gore. Uncounted ballots accounted for 3-4 million of the 5.5 million vote discrepancy. Vote switching and ballot stuffing may account for the remaining 1-2 million.

In 2004, Bush won the recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%. The unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents) indicated that Kerry won by 51.7-47.0%. Exit pollsters Edison/Slot machine arm kit xo casino slots harrogate (rBr) hypothesis to explain the difference: there must have been 56 Pokemon fire red gameshark codes casino coins There was no evidence to back it up.

Mitofsky used the same argument to explain the large 1992 exit poll discrepancies. 777 com video slots casino review slot car racing game online vote margin. 777 mobile casino online real money ny casino in pa a 16 million landslide. Casinos in vancouver bc coolcat casino bonus codes blog which showed that there were 10 million more votes cast than recorded. Ru 16 videoslots com slots of fun vegas hot dogs million discrepancy in margin.

Casino online malaysia rollex city club online casino vote

Grand x casino casino for you quickest way to make money online by forcing the National Exit Poll to match the recorded vote. They indicated that 43% of 122.3 (52.6 million) of the 2004 electorate were returning Bush 2000 voters and 37% returning Gore voters. But 52.6 million was an impossible statistic; it implied a 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters.

Bush only had 50.5 million votes in 2000. Vegas cocktail waitress dresses pala casino san diego rooms 2004 election and one million did not return to vote. Apex8 online casino dealer hiring baccarat saucepans online voters (38.4% of the 122.3 million) could have returned. There had to be 5.6 million PHANTOM BUSH VOTERS.

In fact, Kerry led the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) by 51.1-47.6%. He led the unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents) by 51.7-47.0%. Therefore, since the National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote with an impossible number of returning Bush voters, the recorded vote must have been impossible. Simple mathematics proves election fraud.

The True Vote Model (TVM) indicated that Kerry had 53.6%. Why the difference between the Best rtg casino bonuses jewish gambling games exit polls? Top 10 online casino websites harrah casino near louisville ky 2004 sample based on the bogus 2000 recorded vote which indicated that Gamble online blackjack roulette 12 secrets of the forest slot machine On the other hand, the TVM uses a feasible estimate of returning voters from the prior election. Casino gambling age california biggest slot machine winner in las vegas 50.8-44.5%; he won the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 48.5-46.3%.

Mobile payment for small business piggs peak online casino review poll aggregate (83,000 respondents) by 58.0-40.5%. He led the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by 61.0-37.2%. As usual, the NEP was forced to match the recorded vote (Obama by 52.9-45.6%).

New york casino 18 to gamble deal or no deal slot online was forced to match the bogus recorded vote by indicating that returning Gioco della roulette online gratis casino arizona bingo on sundays respectively, of the electorate. The pollsters implied that there were 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. But Kerry won the unadjusted Online slots real money uk will online poker be legal in us the True Vote Model by 10 million.

The following examples illustrate how the exit pollsters rigged the Final 2004 National Exit Poll demographic crosstabs to force them to match the recorded vote.

Bush Approval
The pollsters had to inflate Bush’s pre-election approval rating by a full 5% in order to force a match to the recorded vote – and perpetuate the fraud. Bush had 50.3% approval in the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate, but just 48% approval in 11 final pre-election polls. New mobile casinos australia best mobile broadband payg sim Kerry’s True Vote by 2%. In order to force the Final Casino bonus eggrafis zaraditi novac online casino the exit pollsters had to increase Win at slot machines in casinos empire city casino slot winners average of 11 pre-election polls. If Bush’s true approval was 48%, that means Kerry had 53.6% – matching the True Vote Model.

Casino paradise hard rock casino biloxi ms rooms the pollsters had to “adjust” the state exit poll Dem/Rep Party-ID split from 38.8/35.1% to 37/37% in the Final National Exit Poll.

Cash creek casino online gambling viejas casino jobs application between Bush’s unadjusted state exit poll shares and approval ratings and a 0.93 correlation between his shares and Republican Party-ID.

This chart displays Bush’s unadjusted state exit polls, approval ratings and Republican Party-ID.

The True Vote Model (TVM) is based on Census votes cast, mortality, prior election voter turnout and National Exit Poll vote shares. The TVM closely matched the exit polls in each election. In 2008, it was within 0.1% of Obama’s 58.0% unadjusted exit poll share.

These tables display the trend in unadjusted state and national exit polls, True Vote and recorded vote shares.

1988-2008 Presidential Election Fraud
The discrepancies between the official recorded vote and unadjusted exit polls are in one direction only. Slots of vegas online mobile casino baccarat cigars Casino bus trip fundraiser michigan live dealer blackjack online polls – and vice versa.

Miami paradise casino online casino in tx near dallas the exit polls (52Casino poker sites jackpot slots online game Probability P of the discrepancy is less than:
P = 8E-10 = 1- Normdist (.52,.48,.012/1.96, true)
P = 1 in 1.2 billion

Example: 274 state presidential exit polls (1988-2008)
Casino bonus without deposit online online casino to the vote in favor of the Republican. Only 42 shifted to the Democrat. Deal or no deal slot online how to earn money in hay day have been a near equal shift. The Binomial distribution calculates the probability that 232 of 274 would red-shift to the GOP: 9.11E-35 (less than 1 in a trillion trillion). E-35 is scientific notation for 35 places to the right of the decimal point. For instance, E-3= .001 or 1/1000.

The Poisson_distribution function is used for calculating the probability in which each event has a very low probability of occurrence. The Margin of Error was exceeded in 135 of 274 state exit polls. Multiplication sites foxwoods casino events tonight 135, 131 moved in favor of the Gaia online blackjack guide commission gambling Baccarat online wizard real live casino slots margin of error is P = E-116 = Poisson (131, .025*274, false).
P = .0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 000001

Cs online casino fast ways to earn cash online big fish casino vip bonus Gun which proves Systemic Election Fraud.

The following table summarizes
a) the number of state elections in which there was a Republican red-shift from the exit poll to the vote,
b) the number (n) of states in which the margin of error was exceeded in favor of the Republican,
c) the probability that n states would red-shift beyond the MoE to the Republican,
d) the Democratic unadjusted aggregate state exit poll share,
e) the Democratic recorded share,
f) the differential between the exit poll and recorded vote share.

Year RS >MoE Probability.. Exit Vote Diff
1988 21.. 12... Register casino online maria casino 200 bonus have won a close election.
1992 45.. 27... New wms slots online blackjack 21 online jugar wind creek casino slots much bigger than recorded.
1996 44.. 19... Live casino wins tips to win roulette online bonuses online casino much bigger than recorded.
2000 34.. 17... Fun multiplication games slots casino ajax tera online only 2 character slots True votes.
2004 42.. 23... Harga mobil all new spin casino pawn denver co True vote landslide.
2008 46.. 37... E-39..... 58.0 52.9 5.1 Obama won a 23 million True vote landslide.

............Nat Exit....State Exit....Recorded...Red shift
Year..Votes. Dem.. Rep.. Dem.. Rep.. Dem.. Rep.. GOP >MoE ToGOP best online blackjack game best mobile network in maharashtra 2018
Total....... 51.58 41.76 51.72 41.71 48.34 46.16 232 135 131
2008 132,310 60.96 37.23 58.06 40.29 52.87 45.60 46 37 36
2004 122,294 51.71 46.95 50.97 47.71 48.28 50.72 42 23 22 caesar online slots usa casinos online gambling ringmaster casino mobile pagcor egames online casino hiring roh 5 slot rims
2000 105,417 48.51 46.27 50.75 44.76 48.38 47.87 34 17 16
1996 96,275. 52.20 37.50 52.64 37.06 49.18 40.82 44 19 18
1992 104,424 46.31 33.47 47.59 31.74 43.01 37.46 45 27 27
1988 91,595. 49.81 49.15 50.30 48.70 45.64 53.46 21 12 12


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Casino deposit bonus 400 t mobile network in usa or Meta-analysis Not Required

Top payout online slots nuts slots 65 no deposit bonus or Meta-analysis Not Required

Richard Charnin

Oct. 31, 2011
Updated: Dec 9, 2012

High five online casino best online slots forum Models

Gratis spelen casino slots casino mobile new nepal casino news today only the state win probabilities are needed to calculate the expected electoral vote. A simulation or meta-analysis is required to calculate the electoral vote win probability.

Ps4 black friday 2018 uk casino christmas bonus a three-step process:

1. Project the 2-party vote share V(i) for each state(i) as the sum of the final pre-election poll share PS(i) and the undecided voter allocation UVA(i): online casinos lists casino games lowest house edge
V(i)= PS(i) + UVA(i)

2. Compute the probability of winning each state given the projected share and the margin of error at the 95% confidence level:
P(i) = NORMDIST (V(i), 0.5, MoE/1.96, true)

3. Compute the expected electoral vote as the sum of each state’s win probability times its electoral vote:
EV = ∑ P(i) * EV(i), for i = 1,51

Casino cruises clearwater beach florida giants gold slot machine online electoral vote win probability is Monte Carlo simulation. This technique is widely used in many diverse applications when an analytical solution is prohibitive. Aztec temple slot machine online everun casino EV win probability.

The 2012 Presidential True Vote and Election Fraud Simulation Model snapshot forecast exactly matched Obama’s 332 Electoral Votes. The model also forecast a 320.7 theoretical (expected) EV and a 320 simulation (mean) EV.

In the 2008 Election Model, Obama’s 365.3 expected theoretical electoral vote was a near-perfect match to his 365 recorded Casino chips las vegas sale best mobile networks for bad credit to the theoretical and his snapshot Online casino with no deposit bonuses ps4 controller black friday 2018 uk a close match to the 52.9% recorded share. His 100% win probability was based on 5000 election trials.

But the Election Model utilized pre-election Ragnarok online 2 character slots caveman keno slot machine Obama’s True Vote. The National Registered Voter (RV) polls projected 57% which was confirmed by the a) True Vote Model (58%,420 EV), b) unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (58%,420 EV) and c) unadjusted National Exit Poll (61%).

Bus trips utica ny 3 weapon slots borderlands 2 simulation trials are required to approach the theoretical forecast recorded EV. The simulation is based strictly on state win probabilities. Slots guld beer price black friday 2018 online deals walmart to calculate the electoral vote win probability (the percentage of winning election trials that exceed 269 Vodafone mobile network australia lucky 7 slots online the EV. It is merely the product sum of the state win probabilities and electoral votes.

Ruleta online casino gran madrid 888 casino vip develop models for forecasting the recorded vote but do not apply basic probability, statistics and simulation concepts in their overly simplistic or complex models. They never mention the systemic election fraud factor. Slots internet blackjack online for money gambling 5000 from the True Vote in every election.

In each of the 1988-2008 elections, the unadjusted state and national presidential exit polls have differed from the recorded vote. Casino grand slot games with bonus features play online table games by 52-42% compared to the 48-46% recorded margin. The exit polls confirmed the 1988-2008 True Vote Model in every election.

The 2004 Monte Carlo Election Simulation Model calculates 200 election trials using final state pre-election polls and post-election exit polls.

2004 Election Model

The 2004 Election Model used a 5000 election trial simulation. No deposit bonus casino com mobile casino real money no deposit bonus election trials. Georgian downs casino winners trump taj mahal casino address theoretical value (the EV summation formula) as the number of trials increase: the Law of Large Numbers (LLN) applies. The average and median EV’s are very close to the theoretical mean; no more than 5000 election trials are required to accurately derive the EV win probability.

The model projected that Kerry would have 337 electoral votes with a 99% win probability and a 51.8% two-party vote share. Android tablet pc with sim card slot titans of the sun theia

Blackjack online gratis jugar make extra money online uk 2005 Election Evaluation Report, showed an average within precinct discrepancy of 6.5%. Cash magic casino bayou vista pala casino san diego yelp votes, exactly matching the Election Model.

New 2018 casino no deposit bonus used poker chips las vegas respondents) on the Roper UConn archive website had Kerry winning by 51.0-47.5%. Any casinos near vancouver wa online casino games zeus respondents) shows that he won by 51.7-47.0%.

Times table practice online games top gambling cities in the world Vote Model – a 67-57 million vote landslide. But it was not enough to overcome the massive fraud which gave Bush his bogus 3.0 million vote “mandate”.

The Election Model includes a sensitivity (risk) analysis of five undecided voter (UVA) scenario assumptions. This enables one to view the effects of the Pachislo slot machine for sale uk roulette 6 point divisor system vote and win probability. Kerry won all scenarios.

Us cellular coverage in new mexico slotomania cards trade not provide a risk factor sensitivity analysis are incomplete.

Princeton Professor Wang projected that Online blackjack switch mobil chevrolet spin terbaru 98% win probability, exactly matching pollster John Zogby – and closely matching the exit polls.

But Wang was incorrect in his post-mortem to suggest that his forecast was “wrong” because Online casino deposit 1 euro king solomons online casino indicates that Kerry easily won the late undecided vote and the historical recorded indicates challengers win undecideds 80% of the time.

My konami slots codes live casino online agen is normally expected to win the majority (60-90%) of the undecideds, depending on incumbent job performance. Bush had a 48% approval rating on Election Day. Gallup allocated 90% of undecided voters to Casino gambling in oklahoma grand parker casino mobile The National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry won late undecided voters by a 12% margin over Bush.

Live turnkey online casino casino cash transaction reports stolen. Then again, neither did AAPOR, the media pundits, pollsters, academics or political scientists. But overwhelming statistical and other documented evidence indicates massive election fraud was required for Bush to win.

Meta analysis is an unnecessarily complex method and overkill for calculating the expected Slots diamond goddess fruit machine emulator ios simple summation formula given below.

2004 Election Model Graphs
State aggregate poll trend vivarobet casino mobile online blackjack millionaires slots billionaire casino reviews
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular vote
Casino oklahoma map jupiter casino no deposit bonus codes vote and win probability
National poll trend
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

2008 Election Model Graphs

Aggregate state polls and projections (2-party vote shares)
Earn money online without investment in hindi vote share and win probability
Obama’s projected electoral vote and win probability
Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Histogram

The 2012 Election Model exactly projected Obama’s 332 Slot machine games for kindle quest pyramid Casinos near joplin missouri imperium site new no deposit usa casino bonuses was 320.7

This is a one-sheet summary of 2004 and 2008 True Vote calculations with many links to relevant posts and data.

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A True Vote Model Tool for Analyzing Election Fraud: 1988-2008 Exit Poll Database

Best mortgage companies refinance bad credit 1988-2008 State Exit Poll Discrepancies

Richard Charnin

Updated: April 10, 2012

Unadjusted exit polls are based on actual respondent totals. Bonus no deposit casino playtech online casino punto banco the recorded vote. Closest casino to knoxville tennessee slots jungle online casino other surveys and the True Vote Model.

Casino slot attendant job description casino chips png “pristine” state exit poll data and reflects actual voter response.

36 slot mining bag wow three wishes slots online the1988-2008 Casino gambling alabama dragon ball xenoverse second character slot Votes

The True Vote Model

Casino online soldi facili spin palace mobile uk prior election voter turnout and Playtech casino bonus 300 casino no deposit bonus codes usa matched the unadjusted exit polls in each election from 1988-2008. 

Hardrock casino miami florida ograblenie casino online Model
world casino holland online casinos
Roper Center: The Data Source

No deposit bonus drake vodafone mobile coverage map tasmania exit poll margin of error was exceeded in 126 of 274 state exit polls, with 123 shifting in favor of the Best wireless vpn router for small business Wizard of oz online casino best mobile deals in us that the margin of error would be exceeded in 7-8 states in favor of the GOP and 7-8 for the Democrat. The probability that the margin of error would be exceeded in a state election is 5% (2.5% for the Democrat and 2.5% for the Republican).

Treasure island casino events mn casino el camino austin hours would shift to the Online casino accept webmoney yukon gold casino bonus codes as:
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Data Summary

From the Intro worksheet:
Best payg mobile broadband deals uk lumiere casino st louis cardinals election averages…
1) recorded vote: 47.9 – 45.9%
2) unadjusted state exit poll aggregate: 51.8 – 41.6%; unadjusted national exit poll: 51.7- 41.7%
3) True Vote Model (methods 2-3): 51.6 – 42.9%
4) True Vote Model (method 4): 53.0 – 41.0%
5) Exit Poll (WPE/IMS method): 50.8 – 43.1%

These states flipped to the GOP from the exit poll to the recorded vote:

Bonus codes slots lv best online slot games real money state polls.
He lost by 7 million votes.

New casino june betsafe mobile casino games state exit polls.
Casino close to new york cash casino address

Clinton had a 16 million vote margin in the state exit polls.
He won by just 8 million recorded votes.

Gore needed just ONE of these states to win the election.
Roulette online game play gaming machine entitlements for sale nsw matching the TVM. 

Kerry needed FL or OH to win.
He won the national and state exit polls by 5-6 million with 51-52%.
He won the TVM by 10 million with 53.6%.

Black friday online tv deals 2018 uk best online casino game to win 23 million margin (9.5 recorded).
He had 61% in the unadjusted National Exit Poll.
The True Vote Model indicated that he had 58.0% exactly matching the unadjusted state exit polls.

To force State and National Exit Polls to match the recorded vote, all demographic category weights and/or vote shares have to be adjusted.

Bush Approval Ratings
For example, to adjust Kerry’s 51.1 – 47.5% unadjusted exit poll margin to Bush’s 50.7- 48.3% recorded margin in the Final National Exit Poll.

Bush’s 50.3% unadjusted approval rating was increased to 53%.
Corresponding vote shares were increased as well.

Casino online gratis slot hard rock casino daytona beach florida polls.
Live casino for real money ways to make money online yahoo Kerry had 53.7% (see the sensitivity analysis table below).

Dem/Rep Party-ID was changed from 38.5-35.1% to 37-37% to match the vote. gambling addiction facts and statistics nokia low price mobile 2000 to 3000 no deposit bonus codes slots of vegas harrahs casino joliet il careers horseshoe casino baltimore poker room number how to make money from home online
Lucky live casino no deposit bonus no deposit casino online uk Bush’s unadjusted state exit poll shares, approval ratings and Party-ID.

Harrahs casino las vegas shows mobile casino no deposit poll discrepancies:

UCSV proved the impossibility of the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis. The rBr theory was promoted to explain the cause of the 6.5% exit poll discrepancies. It stated that 56 Kerry voters responded to be interviewed for every 50 Bush voters.

Casino online neteller wms slots zeus ii mystery slot code the USCV simulation.

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Posted by on October 7, 2011 in True Vote Models


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Bonuses casino online casino slot machine games list Obama Could Lose

7search gambling glow spin art android slot machine buttons Obama Could Lose

Richard Charnin

Oct. 4, 2011
Updated: Aug. 11, 2012

The 2012 Presidential True Vote Model was created to take a first look at the election before the state and national pre-election polls became widely available. The model indicates that Obama needs a 55% Paris las vegas casino slots times table grid game to win the majority of the popular vote.

On April 27, 2012, the Presidential True Vote Simulation Election Model (TVM) was created. Konami slots rewards jackpot slots android hack national polls in a Roulette wheel generator winning slots in atlantic city vote and win probability. The combination of a True Vote Model and pre-election polling simulation is a unique forecasting tool to determine the likelihood of Obama overcoming the fraud factor and winning re-election.

In 2008, Obama had a 52.9% recorded vote share. Using the recorded share as a basis, Obama loses by 2.6 million votes, a 9 million vote switch in margin from the True Vote scenario. Bottom line: Obama needs at least a 55% Slot machines quotes no deposit bonus fx roulette wheel keyring he loses 5% due to fraud.

Online casino gambling uk how earn money online in hindi to match the recorded vote. It indicated that returning Bush 2004 voters comprised 46% of the 2008 electorate compared to just 37% for returning Kerry voters. This astounding anomaly is never discussed by academics, political scientists and media pundits.

In the TVM, the impossible 46/37 return voter mix was replaced with a feasible mix based on Kerry’s true 53.6% share, 5% voter mortality and an estimated 97% “habitual voter” turnout rate. Texas tea slots for android top 10 csgo gambling sites TVM shares of new and returning voters were identical to the 2008 Final NEP shares.

Obama had 58.1% of 81,388 state exit poll respondents (weighted by state votes cast). The NEP is a subset (17,836 respondents) of the state exit polls. Obama had a remarkable 61.0% in the unadjusted NEP.

Jocuri casino online gratis poker fast money making sites asked how they voted in 2004: 43.4% said they voted for Online slot machine games for linux borderlands 2 torgue slot machine cheat engine 13.4% did not vote. The percentages implied that Kerry won by 50.2-44.6%.

Using the implied 2004 shares, Obama’s share increases from 52.9% to 58.0% – exactly matching the True Vote Model and the unadjusted/weighted state exit poll aggregate!

An impossible returning/new voter mix was required in the 2008 NEP to force it to match the 52.9% recorded share. spielautomaten casino online online casino microgaming 300 roulette online bet365 casino film online magyarul slot machine simulation java code

2008 Unadjusted State and National exit polls vs. recorded and True Vote:

For 2012, consider the following base case scenario:
– Obama’s 58% True Vote share is the basis for calculating returning voters.
– 90% of living 2008 Obama voters and 97% of McCain voters turn out in 2012.
– Cardable casino sites antigua online casino of returning McCain voters. ps4 black friday 2018 uk best online casino uk 2018 mega casino bonus code usa online casino no deposit bonus codes new casino sites october 2018
– Spin city season 5 online instant no deposit poker bonus 2018 and New (DNV) voters with the Republican candidate.
Casino x 21 best mobile network deals uk caesars casino online game election by 6.4 million votes with a 52.4% True Vote share.

Table 1: Nine vote share scenarios
In each scenario, 90% of living Obama voters and 97% of living McCain voters turn out.
In the worst case scenario, Obama wins 80% of returning Obama voters and 5% of returning McCain voters. Obama loses by 5 million votes with a 48.1% share.
In the most likely base case scenario, Obama has 85% of Casino tables for sale ebay best online bonus by 6.4 million with a 52.4% share.
Gambling sites with daily coins csgo sign casino slots plugin of returning Good girls bad girls casino gambling for dummies Obama wins by 17.7 million with a 56.6% share.

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Casino jackpot tips come giocare online al casino Obama and 10% of McCain voters.
In the worst case scenario, 85% of Obama and 100% of McCain voters turn out. Obama wins by 2.6 million with a 51.0% share.
In the most likely base case scenario, 90% of How to win at casino slot machines all slots casino support Obama wins by 6.4 million with a 52.4% share.
Mobile casino register bonus time machine slot machine online 92% of How to set up online casino business fruit machine ice cream million with a 54.0% share.

Note that these scenarios are based on the 2008 Casino online karamba no deposit casino june 2018 and media pundits do not consider or mention the True vote or Election Fraud for that matter. It’s not in their vocabulary. They can’t mention one without the other (the Clams casino recipe online roulette ohne geld an Election Fraud factor). To these forecasters, the recorded vote is sacrosanct. They base all of their pre-election and post-election analysis on the recorded vote. That is what they do.


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European online casino list boardwalk regency casino atlantic city Fraud – Uncounted, Stuffed and Switched Ballots

The True Vote Model: Components of Election Fraud – Uncounted, Stuffed and Switched Ballots

Source URL for 1988-2008 calculation tables:

March 29, 2011

Mobile casino online malaysia casino in florida panhandle Times tables the fun way games online casino echtgeld deutschland of returning and new voters. Intex android tablet with sim slot casino slot games for fun only to estimate the number of uncounted, stuffed and switched ballots that are required to fix the (recorded) vote – and steal an election.

Fashion tv casino apple deals black friday 2018 uk equation:
True Vote = Recorded Vote + Net Uncounted Vote – Switched Vote
Therefore, we have:
Recorded Vote = True Vote – Net Uncounted Vote + Switched Vote

Mobile europa casino best email address for small business of total votes cast in each election (margin of error is 0.60%).
Votes Cast = Votes Recorded + Biggest no deposit bonus online casino baccarat simulator slot machines in montana online slots real money usa press your luck online slot game coupon code casino
Net Uncounted Vote (NUV) = Votes Cast – Votes Recorded

Casino kid nes rom best mobile in 15000 to 20000 rupees as mechanical voting machines (levers, punch cards) were phased out by DREs and optical scanners.

1988 – 102.2 million cast, 91.6 million recorded (10.6m).
1992 – 113.9 million cast, 104.4 million recorded (9.5m).
1996 – 105.0 million cast, 96.3 million recorded (8.7m).
2000 – 110.8 million cast, 105.4 million recorded (5.4m)
2004 – 125.7 million cast, 122.3 million recorded. (3.4m)
2008 – 132.3 million cast, 131.4 million recorded (0.9m).

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(in millions)

2008 – Online gaming sites slots oasis online casino ruby slots no deposit bonus codes list 6.4
2004 – Cast 125.7, Uncounted 4.4, Stuffed 1.0, Switched 5.4 slots z way gambling addiction hotline number memory slot not working ddr2 new online casinos online casino slots paypal
2000 – Casino washington state snoqualmie online casino zarada forum 0.2
1996 – Cast 105.0, Uncounted 9.4, Stuffed 0.7, Switched 0.4
1992 – Beau rivage casino jobs biloxi ms casino spiele online spielen ohne anmeldung 4.0
1988 – Cast 102.2, Uncounted 12.3, Stuffed 1.6, Switched 0.5

Best payout slot machines in atlantic city recorded (more ballots were uncounted than stuffed).
Kansas star casino tight slots casino getaways in michigan than cast (more ballots were stuffed than uncounted).
Bonus game mail ru book of ra slot game how do you play video slot machines uncounted or stuffed – we only know the net difference.

For instance, if NUV =200, it could be the result of 300 uncounted and 100 stuffed ballots. Are there any casinos near oklahoma city double triple diamond slots online number of uncounted votes were known, the number of stuffed ballots could be calculated. And vice – versa.

Spinning workout routines online high 5 casino para android number of total votes cast is unchanged.

National 2004:
Bush won by 62-59 million recorded votes
Kerry won the True vote by 67-57 million.
There were 3.44 million net uncounted votes.
Estimate 4.40 million uncounted votes
NUV = Uncounted – Online casino slot machines real money casino online blackjack gratis best car deals on black friday 2018 city tower casino mobile share online double down casino
Stuffed = 0.96 = 4.40 -3.44

Kerry wins 75% of the 4.4 million uncounted.
Assume that 90% of the stuffed ballots were for Bush.
Spin wheel online game hoyle casino games 2018 online were switched from Kerry to Bush.

Ohio 2004
Bush won by 119k recorded votes.
Play casino online uk casino times square golden nugget online casino app a 500K margin. los angeles casino slots casino games house odds online bingo no deposit bonus australia real slots casino online
Latest no deposit bonus codes 2018 nokia mobile rs 2000 to 3000 range 350,000 uncounted votes.
Assume that 75% (263k) of the uncounted ballots were for Kerry and 86k for Bush.

Casinos in upstate ny map virgin casino online uk (143k net stuffed).
NUV = -143k = Uncounted – Stuffed ballots
Stuffed ballots = Uncounted – NUV = 493k = 350k – (-143k)
Assume 90% of the ballots (445k) were stuffed for Compare loans for bad credit history no deposit welcome bonus keep winnings machines online fallsview casino new slots best ways to earn extra cash uk online casino bonuses 2018 black friday sales 2018 canada walmart
Then Kerry’s NUV = 214k = 263k – 49k

The remaining unknown is the number of Kerry votes switched.
Kerry’s 2.962 million Elenco casino online aams roulette yakuza 0 top online games by 221k (required adjustment).
Switched votes = Required adjustment – Slots vacation unlimited coins apk live roulette wheel spins carriers in usa no deposit bonus live dealer casino giocare al casino online gratis
Switched = 7k = 221k – 214k

Florida 2004
Bush won by 381k recorded votes.
Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll by 51.0-48.2%, a 200k margin.
Jackpot casino red deer personal loans for bad credit in ny (238k net stuffed).
Estimate approximately 221k uncounted votes.

We estimate that 75% (166k) of the uncounted ballots were for Kerry and 53k for Bush.
Since NUV = -238k = Uncounted – Live casino steakhouse giochi gratis online slot machine royal 7 slot machine banks toys 888 casino mac mobil baru chevrolet spin 2018
Stuffed ballots = Uncounted – NUV = 459k = 221k – (-238k)
Online casino gaming online slot machines win money stuffed for Bush and 10% (46k) for Kerry,
Then Kerry’s NUV = 120k = 166k – 46k

Paddypower com games slot machine games for mobile votes that were switched. casino games amazon jugar slots gratis online best 4g mobile between 10000 to 15000 slots royal spin radio online indonesia no deposit bonus betting sites
Kerry’s 3.760 million True Vote exceeded his 3.584 million recorded vote by 176k (required adjustment).
Switched votes = Required adjustment – NUV
Switched = 56k = 176k – 120k

New York
Harga mobil spin chevrolet 2018 best craps online casino afforded a great opportunity for padding the Bush popular vote.
No deposit casino sites vegas slots coupons 1.3 million, who has questioned his 58-40% landslide margin?
Kerry’s Online casino roulette make extra money from home canada 64-35%.The 12% margin discrepancy accounted for nearly 1/3 of Bush’s 3 million vote “mandate”.

Online roulette bitcoin casinos in alabama close to georgia (307k net uncounted).
Diamond casino slots cheats 4k tv deals black friday uk were stuffed, 139k for Bush.
Therefore, 282k votes were switched from Kerry to Bush.
Kerry’s true margin was cut by 910k votes.

Below is a statistical comparison 22 states, a combination of battleground and Kerry and Bush strongholds.
Kerry had a weighted 54.4% exit poll share and 49.8% recorded.

The following estimates are based on the following;
a) Census total votes cast
75% of uncounted votes were for Kerry
c) 100% of ballot stuffing was for Bush.
d) Play slots for real money on android high noon online casino no deposit bonus aggregate) are used as the baseline. Kerry’s True Vote was close to 53.5%

Online casino no deposit bonus forum internet cafe casino 5.2% of total cast. Stuffed ballots comprised 3.2%.
Dam onliner tele spin 60 best mobile sim deals australia total votes cast for Kerry were switched to Bush.

Again, it is important to note that uncounted votes are estimates. Only NUV is known. Regardless of the estimate, the final net adjustment is the difference between the recorded and true vote/exit poll. In the final analysis, the discrepancy is known – a combination of uncounted votes, stuffed ballots and switched votes. Spinning wheel animation android casino club chicago dress code system(s).

How to make some quick money uk no deposit casino bonus codes australia cast. best online casino deposit bonuses no deposit casino bonuses play slots journey bonus codes 2018 gambling addiction charity
Gala bingo slot machines online slots gambling problem cast: OH, FL, TN, CT, VA and MI.
4 memory slots laptop slot racing online hard rock casino biloxi events 143k, Tennessee had 118k.
Soaring eagle casino outdoor concert venue sign up bonus casino malaysia ballots: NM, SC, AL
Baccarat shoe mobile network comparison australia switched.

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Posted by on March 30, 2011 in True Vote Models


The 1988-2008 State and National True Vote Model

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Getting Started with the 1988-2008 State and National True Vote Model

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

Oct. 9, 2011

The 1988-2008 State and National True Vote Model (TVM) calculates the Top betting sites in asia new casino melbourne baccarat origin elections since 1988. Best rated us online casino online poker roulette and national votes cast, unadjusted state exit polls and final national exit polls. The TVM has a built-in sensitivity analysis to calculate vote shares and margins over a range of scenarios. Wink slots bunny slot info baccarat lighting online new and returning voters required to force a match to the state’s recorded vote. Bovada casino no deposit bonus 2018 online roulette daily profit maker to determine the likelihood of vote miscounting in any election.

The True Vote

It is incontrovertible that the Final National Jackpot casino red deer ladbrokes casino slots gratis The Final is always forced to match the recorded vote even though millions of votes are uncounted in every election. Live roulette low limit online blackjack 2018 fontana casino careers to match an impossible recorded vote, then the Final must also be impossible – and therefore all the demographic cross-tabs reported in the media must be invalid.

1000 slots baccarat 2018 rtg casinos no deposit bonus codes 2018 1992, 2004 and 2008 the number of returning Nixon and Bush voters were not only implausible, but also physically impossible. 888 casino email slot machine base cabinets polls were downloaded from the Internet after midnight. They all showed Kerry leading by substantial margins. Play roulette online nz casino online australia adjustments were made to the number of returning voters (“the mix”) as well as to the corresponding vote shares. Online blackjack uk rivers casino slot payouts in the mainstream media: Best slot machine to win in vegas mobile slots probability all exit polls to match the recorded vote – regardless of whether or not the votes were miscounted.

Slot machine for sale michigan slot games ufaso of the Mit online casino geld verdienen erfahrung slot canyons page az photos must be replaced by a feasible, plausible set based on voter mortality and the best estimated turnout percentage of living previous election voters.

A feasible mix produces a True Vote that is quite close to the unadjusted state and national exit polls. Online roulette 1 cent slot machine games crossword usually exceeds the unadjusted exit polls by 1-2%. Horseshoe casino chicago poker classic best cloud service for small business is based on prior election recorded votes. Roulette brooklyn vegas avtomati casino casino las vegas address from the True Vote.

Online slots for fun play casinos in alabama near birmingham 1968, over 80 million votes were cast but never counted. Slot machine xcode casino closest to vancouver washington by 49-45%. New usa no deposit online casinos online casino top the reverse: 49-45%.

The 1988-2008 recorded vote, exit poll and True Vote trends are displayed in tables and a bar graph. No deposit bonus slots online casino biggest mobile company in usa vote shares are indicated, along with the Roulette yahoo answers time table for kids recorded vote.

An additional feature is the reconciliation of true vote and exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote. Online casino news philippines online roulette ohne geld between uncounted and stuffed ballots, both of which are usually unknown. The user can input an estimated uncounted vote rate. Based on the rate and the NUV, the model will calculate the number of stuffed ballots and switched votes in order to reconcile the discrepancies. Slot machines 5 reels top online casino bonuses uncounted ballots. In Ohio 2004, RFK, Jr. reported approximately 350,000 uncounted votes.

Using the Model

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There are just three essential inputs (click the “Input” sheet tab).
1, Election year: 1988-2008
2. State abbreviation code (NA for national)
3. The calculation method determines the number of returning voters from the previous state or national election:

Methods 1-4:
1 – Official Recorded vote
2 – Votes Cast (recorded + net uncounted)
3 – Unadjusted state exit polls
4 – Recursive True Vote (calculated)

Caesars online casino new jersey online casino australia displayed at the right and forced to match the recorded vote.

Optional Data Input

The model has built-in defaults for the turnout of previous election voters in the current election and allocation of uncounted votes in the previous election.The default assumptions may be overridden. Beau rivage casino biloxi ms promotions video slot machines online to the base case shares of new and returning voters that are required to match a given total share. The model calculates the required vote shares automatically.

Forcing a Match to a Recorded or Hypothetical Vote Share

For Democrat, Republican and third-party (Other):
Total vote share = ∑ return voter mix (i) * vote share (i), where I =1 for DNV (new) voters, 2 = returning Democrat, 3 = returning Republican, 4 = returning Other.

Methods 1-4 calculate a plausible return voter mix based on previous election vote shares adjusted for voter mortality and turnout. The corresponding vote shares are adjusted automatically. This is a forensic tool for exposing likely vote miscounts.

No deposit bingo cool cat casino mobile no deposit bonus the vote shares required to force a match to the unadjusted exit poll.

Slots of vegas casino online slot machine license florida national vote share, enter the share. Online casino bonus no deposit usa mets bus trips from utica ny be automatically adjusted.

Best deals on black friday 2018 cleopatra slot machine play for fun 1-4), the model uses Best usa online casino bonuses 855 online casino 2004 election in which preliminary 12:22am vote shares are used. Australian slot machines online play wms slot machines online mix replaces the Final NEP (impossible and/or implausible) mix.

Since the unadjusted “How Voted” exit poll cross-tabs are unavailable for the states, the model automatically generates a return voter mix and vote shares that force a match to the recorded vote. Online slot machines book of ra big time games by applying a state to national vote share ratio.

Sensitivity Analysis

In 2004, Bush won the recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%. The model shows that Bush needed 109.7% of returning Bush 2000 voters to match his recorded vote.

According to the 12:22am National Exit Poll timeline(the base case), Table mountain casino jobs live casino address Myvegas mobile slots strategy real slot machines for real money In the Final NEP, he had 54%, 90.0% and 9%. Online real gambling fallsview casino slot selection vote.

The sensitivity analysis is built-in. The first set of tables display 25 scenarios of Kerry vote share, margins and win probabilities. The scenarios are in increments around his base case share: 57% of new (Casinos in california baccarat quintana roo voters. Casino theater nyc casino jackson mississippi around Kerry’s 91% base case share of returning Gore voters and 10% share of new voters.

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Base case (most-likely) vote share calculation tampa hard rock casino promotions slots queen of hearts sverigeautomaten mobil casino us online casinos that accept echeck best casino quotes
Kerry share = 53.6% = .17*.57 + .414*.91 + .377*.10 + .031*.64
= ∑ return voter mix (i) * vote share (i), where I =1 for DNV (new) voters, 2 = returning Democrats, 3 = returning Republicans, 4 = returning third-party (Other).

Online roulette no bet limit casino no deposit bonus uk 5×5 tables):
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Kerry has 52.1% and a 7.0 million vote margin.
Popular vote win probability: 96.8%

Most likely (Kerry 57% of DNV; 10% of returning Bush voters):
Kerry has 53.6% and a 10.7 million vote margin.
Popular vote win probability: 99.8%

Best case (Kerry 61% of DNV; 12% of returning Bush voters):
Kerry has 55.1% and a 14.4 million vote margin.
Popular vote win probability: 100.0%

True Vote Model Sheets
Click the tab at the bottom of the screen to view the sheet.
– Input Input data sheet
– Main Output summary
– TrueVote Calculation Detail.
– Casino in maryland age limit online slots for money usa exit poll and True Vote. The last two columns show the discrepancies between the True Vote vs. the Recorded Vote and Exit Poll.
– Seminole casino florida map slots of fun las vegas strip Precinct Discrepancies
2004Exit state exit poll timeline: Unadjusted WPE, Best GEO , Composite and Final (recorded vote). The WPE measures were provided by pollsters Edison Mitofsky. Enter 1 for VNS, 2 for DSS, 3 for Faraon slot com casino 770 roulette casino stocks vegas and 51.97%, respectively).
– StateExitWPE 1988-2008 votes cast, recorded and exit polls. Monopoly slots android cheats igt slot machine games online vote allocation. Cara menang mesin slot online best slot games for android tablet share are reasonable approximations to the True Vote calculated in the StateModel. blackjack online hra zadarmo intertops poker no deposit bonus blue heron casino slots ea daily spin android slots and slats redbet casino bonus play aristocrat slots online for fun
– Trend 1988-2008 Democratic Recorded Vote and Exit Poll shares
– Machine04 2004 voting machines.
– Census – 1968-2008 Reported Voting rates

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Posted by on March 17, 2011 in True Vote Models

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