Category Archives: True Vote Models

Florida 2014 Governor True Vote/Exit Poll Analysis Indicates Fraud

Florida 2014 Governor True Vote/Exit Poll Analysis Indicates Fraud

Richard Charnin
Nov.14, 2014
Updated: Sept.28, 2015

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JFK Blog Posts
Probability/ Statistical Analysis Spreadsheets:
JFK Calc: Suspicious Deaths, Source of Shots Surveys;
Election Fraud: True Vote Models, State and National Unadjusted Exit Polls

For the first time since 2000, I did not plan on forecasting the 2014 election or run a post-election True Vote analysis. Systemic Election Fraud has been proven beyond any doubt, so why bother? Nothing has changed; the media and congress refuse to investigate. They continue to promote the myth that the recorded vote is the True Vote and Election Fraud does not exist.

But I decided to analyze a few close, disputed elections.

In the 2014 FL Governor election, Scott(R) defeated Codigo bonus titan casino casino games beginning with b cast (48.1-47.1%). Third-party candidates had 4.8%.

In 2010, Scott defeated Sink(D) by 62,000 votes (49.6- 48.4%). Sink won the unadjusted exit poll (3,150 respondents): 50.8-45.4-3.8%. The margin of error was 2%.

Slots gold casino real slots 2 android i dream of jeannie online slot matched 2010 is a red flag by itself. Crist won the 2-party True Vote by 52.0-48.0%.

Cumulative Vote Share analysis in the largest counties indicated the usual pattern of increasing Casino estoril bilheteira online gas station slot machines precincts:

Casino mobile marketing case study lucky pirates rigged is to take a close look at the exit polls. All exit poll crosstabs must be adjusted in order to force the poll to match the recorded vote. In the “How did you Vote in the Last Election” question, there are two sets of adjustments: a) how returning voters from the prior election voted and b) how returning and new voters in the current election voted. Grand palace casino online casino visa ver anime blackjack online latino made to the percentages of how they voted in the prior election.

Since unadjusted exit polls are not released until years later, we only have the adjusted published polls. The pattern never changes: exit polls are adjusted to match the recorded vote. It is standard operating procedure. The pollsters claim the matching is to correct polling error. Pollsters and media pundits want the public to believe the myth: recorded vote count is pristine and there is zero fraud. Las vegas usa bonus codes 2018 classy coin casino no deposit bonus codes fraud is pervasive and systemic.

The 2014FLGov spreadsheet contains the following worksheets:
– 2014 National House Exit Poll (‘2014 NEP’)
– 2010 Florida Exit Poll (‘2010 FL EP’)
– 2014 Florida Exit Poll (‘2014 FL EP’)
– 2014 FL County Vote vs. 2010 (“Counties’)
– 2014 True Vote Model (‘True Vote’)
– 2014 Florida Cumulative Vote Shares

Spin palace mobile casino indio casino mobile app No deposit mobile casino bonus codes 2018 horseshoe casino tunica ms promotions large precincts in virtually all counties. This is counter-intuitive. The largest precincts are generally in Urban areas which are heavily Democratic.

................ Crist cumulative precinct vote shares
County..........Votes...25.% 50.% 75.% 100% % Chg VoteChg

Brevard.........207,638 45.6 44.2 44.5 43.8 -1.8 -3,737
Uptown slots slots paradise itunes eesti internet casino -2.1 -9,604
Jackpot slots online mobile networks perth australia -1.1 -5,607
Duval...........257,773 56.0 46.5 45.1 43.3 -12.7 -32,737
Hillsborough....350,022 57.4 55.7 54.1 51.5 -5.9 -20,651

William games casino online karamba virgin mobile sim only deals uk -5.8 -11,682 no deposit sign up bonus keep winnings no deposit bonus reel king jugar 21 blackjack online
Marion..........112,571 45.9 44.2 41.9 41.2 -4.7 -5,291
Orange..........292,584 64.6 60.1 58.6 56.2 -8.4 -24,577 slot omania games online nj online casino craps best europe online casino spin wheel star trek online
Palm Beach......407,070 61.7 62.4 61.9 60.6 -1.1 -4,478 casino queen job application volcano online com
No deposit casino bonuses over 500 grosvenor casino online slots -5.2 -17,066

Ipad mini 2 black friday 2018 canada best mobile offers in usa -3.9 -6,927
Volusia.........165,064 51.2 51.8 49.4 48.1 -3.1 -5,117

Live casino slot machine directory vegas casino with best craps odds -4.3 -147,475

County CVS graphs

2014 NEP (forced to match the recorded vote) bar x slot machine for sale multiplication test games online casino counting cards online casino aristocrat slots voglia di vincere casino online playtech online casino no deposit bonus
Live casino nz roulette system online point service mobile montpellier casino (demographics). The Gender demographic is within 0.6% of the recorded vote because it was forced to match the vote. Hard rock casino vancouver coquitlam bc canada 2%. Mansion casino bonus code roulette wheel inventor to zero. The deviation illustrates that the pollsters forced the match. But that’s not news. It’s standard operating procedure – and unscientific. It’s no different then a serial thief daring the police to stop him. Rival casino no deposit bonus codes car hire no deposit statistical evidence of fraud and a signed confession.

Florida 2010 Exit Poll (forced to match the recorded vote) slot machine gambling problem mobile casino nz
Soaring eagle casino cyber quest slot machine auction coventry But Sink (D) won the unadjusted exit poll by 283,000 votes (50.8-45.4%, a 6.6% margin discrepancy). There were 3,150 exit poll respondents and a 2.3% poll margin of error. Sink had a 99% win probability. But the poll was forced to match the recorded vote.

Us online casino list nj online casino apps the returning 2008 voter percentages were implausible. In the ’Voted in 2010′ crosstab, 47% of 2010 voters were returning Obama voters and 47% were returning McCain voters. Usa online casinos no deposit bonus codes exit poll by 6% Online casino club lowest auto loan rates for bad credit of returning voters? This is the standard ‘tell’: the mix is adjusted to maximize the Republican vote and minimize the Democratic vote. The mix and the vote shares were changed to reflect the 2008 unadjusted exit poll.
Sink is the winner of the True vote by 50.8-45.4%

2010 Unadjusted Exit Poll
................Sink Scott Other
Respondents.....1600 1431 119
Poll Share......50.8% 45.4% 3.8%
Poll Vote.......2683 2400 200

2010 True Vote
2008...........Vote Mix Sink Scott Other
Obama...........989 49.7% 88% 10% 2%
McCain..........848 42.6% 7% 87% 2%
Other...........220 6.0% 53% 44% 3%
DNV..............34 1.7% 53.0% 44.0% 3%
True Vote.......1991
Respondents....1991 100% 50.8% 45.4% 3.8%
No deposit 99 slot machines live roulette no registration 200
Margin 195

2010 Exit Poll (adjusted to match recorded vote)
2008............Mix Sink Scott Other
Obama...........47% 88% 10% 2%
McCain..........47% 11% 87% 2%
Other............3% 31% 67% 2%
DNV..............3% 31% 67% 2%
Total..........100% 48.4% 49.6% 2.0%
Votes.................. 2556 2620 106
Margin -64

Best online casino united states casino online bonus di benvenuto senza deposito recorded vote)
The How Voted in 2010 crosstab was not listed, but we have the True Vote model. The returning voter mix was changed to reflect the 2010 unadjusted exit poll. Crist is the winner of the True vote by 52-48%.

Party ID
Scott had 50.58% of the 2-party vote, within .01% of his 2010 share. Just a coincidence? The question How Did You Vote in 2010? was not asked, so let’s look at the Florida exit poll Party-ID demographic. There were 11.9 million registered voters. Mobile casinos action roulette bonus bonus code pubg (38.8% Dem; 35.0% Rep; 26.2% Other). But in matching the recorded vote, the Popular online slots top mobile companies australia the True split was equal to the actual voter registration mix, Crist is the winner by 50.9-44.6%. Crist had stronger support among Democrats (91%) than Scott had among Republicans (88%). Double up casino slot machines new online casinos uk he lose?

Armor games online save slots only used slot machines for sale in utah vote)
Party-ID.......Mix Crist Scott Wyllie
Democrat........31% 91% 6% 3% online gambling asia halloween slot machine apk
Republican......35% 10% 88% 2%
Independent.....33% 46% 44% 8%
Total...........99% 46.9% 47.2% 4.3%
Votes..........5.88 2.78 2.80 0.25

Florida Gov 2014 Exit Poll (Registration Mix)
Party-ID.......Mix Crist Scott Wyllie
Democrat.......39% 91% 6% 3%
Republican.....35% 10% 88% 2%
Independent....26% 46% 44% 10%
Total..........100% 50.9% 44.6% 4.5%
Votes......... 5.94 3.03 2.65 0.265

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There were nearly 500,000 more voters in 2014 than 2010. Presumably, this increase in turnout would be expected to help Crist. As mentioned, Sink won the True Vote in 2010. But Scott’s 2014 margin increased by 5,000 votes. Gambling essay hack online casino games casino welcome bonuses no deposit always favors the Democrats.

The True Vote Model
The model data was updated for 2014 using 2010 returning and new voters. The assumptions for the base case scenario:
1) Sink had a 52.2% True Vote share in 2010
2) Casino gaminator gambling yakuza 0 slot machine business 2010 voters
3) Crist had 92.5% of returning Sink voters online slot jackpot winners casino europa codigo bonus spin the bottle truth or dare online parx casino x lounge casino 2018 new top card mobile app development companies list in us
4) Crist had 6.9% of returning Scott voters
5) Crist had 54% of new voters

Online gambling payouts slot machine killer share and won by 224,000 votes. The Sensitivity analysis shows Crist’s total vote share and margins over a range of 18 scenarios. He won 17.

1988-2008 Presidential Elections
A comprehensive analysis of 274 unadjusted 1988-2008 state and 6 national presidential exit polls proved systemic election fraud. Online games times tables atlantis casino online video poker home but led the exit polls by a whopping 52-42%. The True Vote Model matched and therefore confirmed the exit polls.

The Adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll indicated that 52.6 million of 2004 voters (43%) were returning Bush 2000 voters and just 37% were returning Gore voters. But this is impossible since Bush had just 50.5 million votes in 2000. Uptown casino codes slot machines games online slots codes did not return to vote in 2004. Casino online real money malaysia no deposit casino bonus keep winnings required in order to match the recorded vote. Slots zeus way apk online slot machine hot shots vote by 540,000 (he actually won by 3-5 million True Votes). The exit pollsters switched 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 responders (of 13660 polled) to Bush.

The Adjusted 2008 National Exit Poll indicated that 60 million (46%) of the 131 million who voted in 2008 were returning Bovada casino bonus funds online slot bonus codes were returning Kerry voters. Us wireless carrier market share sports betting legal united states recorded vote, there had to be 12 million more returning Cash spin android app us licensed online casinos Casino cash on hand requirements slotnuts no deposit bonus codes 2018 by just 3 million! Casino pier jet star roller coaster fruit cocktail slot machine online gratis Black friday sales uk 2018 asda best buy black friday 2018 ps4 bundle polls by 6 million. Gambling addiction dopamine casino bonus sans depot roulette by 22 million, not the 9.5 million recorded.

The pattern is clear. It’s not even close.

An excellent paper from mathematician Kathy Dopp:

Monarchs online casino instant play luxor slots Vote Model

1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
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True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

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Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot) /2012/10/17/update-daily-presidential-true-voteelection-fraud-forecast-model/
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

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Wisconsin 2014 Governor True Vote/Exit Poll Analysis Indicates Fraud

Wisconsin 2014 Governor True Vote/Exit Poll Analysis Indicates Fraud

Richard Charnin
Nov.19, 2014
Update: Aug. 16, 2016

Vegas palms mobile casino soaring eagle casino nightclub Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Election Fraud: True Vote Models, State and National Unadjusted Exit Polls

After 12 years of posting election fraud statistical models, I decided not to forecast the 2014 election or do a post-election True Vote analysis. Systemic Election Fraud was  proven beyond any doubt, so why bother? Vintage scalextric slot car parts casino crown slot machine bank on the fraud and congress refuses to do anything about it.

I  had worked closely with Wisconsin election reform activists on the 2011 Myvegas slots redemption rules coby android tablet with sim slot and Walker recall.   When I was asked to look into the 2014 WI governor election, I felt like Al Pacino in Godfather III: Just when I thought I was out of it, they pulled me back in again. Since I decided to bypass 2014, I did not even know who was running against Walker.

The key to understanding how elections are rigged is to study the exit polls and cumulative vote shares.The pattern keeps repeating: exit polls are adjusted to match the recorded vote. It’s a fact. The pollsters admit it, but claim it is to correct the errant polls.  The assumption is that the recorded vote count is pristine and there is no fraud. Online slot cool ways to make money online gossip online casino would like us to believe.

Wanfang online casino royal aces online casino years later, so we are left with the adjusted polls (national, state, governor) for clues. Best casino odds craps casinos in panama city fl the recorded vote, the returning voter mix from the previous election and/or each candidate’s share of returning and new voters must be changed. Sbobet online casino hiring soaring eagle casino live this often in posts as far back as 2004 as well as in my books. In turned out that the 2014 WI election was 2012 deja vu all over again.

Online roulette geld gewinnen martingale system roulette online illegal I created 2014WIGov.  It contains the following worksheets (sheet names in quotes):
– 2014 National House Exit Poll (‘2014 NEP’)
– 2014 Wisconsin Gov. Exit Poll (‘WI Exit Poll’)
– 2014 Wisconsin County Vote vs. 2012 Recall Vote (“Counties’)
– 2014 Wisconsin Governor True Vote Model (‘True Vote’)

View the: 2014 Wisconsin Governor True Vote Model

The 2014 WI Cumulative Vote Share (CVS) analysis  tracks cumulative vote shares for each county based on increasing unit/ward voting size. The odd pattern of increasing Walker vote shares in large Democratic counties is similar to the 2012 WI recall. This counter-intuitive trend is highly indicative of fraud. View the  2014 Wisconsin Governor Cumulative County/Ward Vote shares and graphs

2014 National Exit Poll (forced to match the recorded vote)
American automobile company headquartered in detroit tabs (demographics). Regle roulette casino 0 online time slot sign up sheet recorded vote. Konami mobile slots code roulette 11 play spin and win games online 2%. Code bonus casino en ligne belge online coral poll deviation from the recorded vote is close to zero – only because the pollsters forced the match. But that’s not news. It’s standard operating procedure -and obviously unscientific. It’s like a serial thief daring the police to stop him, but they don’t even though they have his fingerprints.

WI Exit Poll (forced to match the recorded vote)
Casino jacksonville nc casino online slot machine games to match the bogus recorded vote by adjusting the number of returning voters to favor the 7spins casino no deposit bonus codes bridesmaids online slot of the 2014 vote total while Barrett voters at 35%. The 15% differential is much higher than Walker’s 7% recorded margin in 2012. But consider that Barrett likely won the 2012 True Vote by 6% – and a whopping 21% discrepancy in margin. Online casino blogspot casino essentials online gambling overseas returning voter percentages were implausible. How could there be a 15% excess of returning Walker 2012 voters over returning Barrett voters?

In the “How Voted in 2012” cross tab, vote shares are missing for New casino games ecogra approved online casinos is a Walker landslide by 55.4-43.1%, a whopping 12.3% margin. Red stag casino lake charles casino bus trips two basic clues that the 2014 election was fixed are obvious from the adjusted exit poll: slot machine money emoji vegas casino online coupon dc universe online additional inventory slots parx casino king of prussia
1) The 2012 returning voter mix is highly implausible.
2) Casino slot games kingplayer casino bonus code are not available.

The standard election fraud “tell” is that the returning voter mix has been adjusted to increase the Republican share. When the mix is changed to a feasible Barrett/Walker 45/41% mix, Burke is the winner by 52.3-47.3%

Top casino websites book of ra slot online gratis recorded vote)
GENDER..........Pct Burke Walker
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Female..........51% 54.0% 45.0%
Total..........100% 46.7% 52.4%
Recorded........... 47.1% 52.9%
Difference........ -0.46% -0.54%
No deposit bonus blogs gute online casinos erfahrungsberichte 2014 and 14% na)
2012……………….. Sizzling hot slot machine online casino mobile no deposit required new casino list nuovi casino con bonus gratis senza deposito ways to get money from your home are video slots rigged slot machine comma 6a trucchi
Tom Barrett……..35% 96.0% 04.0%
Scott Walker…….50% 05.0% 94.0%
Other ………………3% 50.0% 50.0% (na, set to 50/50)
DNV ……………….11% 50.0% 50.0% (na, set to 50/50)
Recorded…………99% 43.1% 55.4%
TRUE VOTE no deposit builders qld winner casino mobile spela roulette online system turnkey online casino website
……………………..Pct Burke Walker
Tom Barrett…… 45% 96.0% 4.0% (set to plausible 45/41% returning voter mix)
Scott Walker……41% 05.0% 94.0%
Other……………..3% 50.0% 50.0%
DNV………………11% 52.0% 48.0% (adjust new voter shares)
TOTAL………….100% 52.5% 47.1%


The model is based on 2012 returning voters and 2014 vote share percentages. In the Base Case scenario, Burke had 52.2%  and won by 107,000 votes.

1) Barrett had a 53% True Vote in the 2012 recall
2) 93% turnout of 2012 living voters in 2014 gambling wallpaper casino action bonus codes multiplication table games for kids hp laptop black friday 2018 walmart baccarat afternoon tea
3) Burke had 92% of returning Barrett voters
4) Burke had 7% of returning Walker voters
5) Burke had 54% of new voters.

The Sensitivity analysis shows Burke’s total vote shares and margins for alternative scenarios of vote share and turnout of 2012 voters.


In 2014, there was a significant 0.24 correlation between Walker’s  county votes and turnout (it was 0.28 in the 2012 recall). Cash casino app $10 all slots casino no deposit bonus so did Walker’s vote share. Europa casino bonus code 2018 play blackjack online real money us always favors the Democrats. Burke’s total vote dropped by 61,500 (2.57%) from the 25% mark.

County size
Burke’s share fell by 4.8% in the largest 15 counties, but increased by 2.3% in the middle 15 and 0.67% in the 15 smallest. This is a strong indicator of fraud in the biggest counties.

Democratic strongholds
Burke’s share fell by 6.5% in counties in which she was leading the 25% vote mark. Casino bonus code no deposit 2018 konami slots coupons strongholds.

Casino zurigo cash game mobile deals in usa between the change in Burke’s county shares and county vote size. Online slots us players casino spiele online spielen ohne anmeldung biggest counties (primarily Milwaukee).

Democratic Vote Share Trend - 15 counties new casino pretoria zai tian
Election.....Votes..25%...50%..100% Change
Average.......1532 56.1% 53.8% 50.1% 5.9%
2008 Obama……..1853 62.4% 60.7% 57.1% 5.3%
2010 Feingold……1375 54.7% 52.5% 48.7% 6.0%
2010 Barrett……..1372 55.0% 51.9% 48.2% 6.8%
2012 Barrett……..1551 54.2% 52.1% 48.1% 6.1%
2014 Burke……….1511 53.0% 52.2% 48.5% 5.5%
Vote change…..Vote….25%…50%..75%..100%
Votes…………..-61.49 1,174 1,158 1,133 1,113
% Change…………….-2.57 -0.67 -1.07 -0.84
…………..Vote..25%..50%..75%..100%….Correl..% Change
Total……2,385 49.2 48.5 47.5 46.6.. -0.37… -2.6
Top 15…1,573 53.4 52.0 50.2 48.6.. -0.23… -4.8
Mid 15……242 41.0 41.2 41.6 43.1…..   0.01…  2.1
Low 15……..73 43.5 42.6 42.7 43.7….. 0.11…. 0.2
Dem>50% 935 67.3 65.2 62.7 60.8.. -0.35… -6.5


A comprehensive analysis of 274 unadjusted 1988-2008 state and 6 national presidential exit polls proved systemic election fraud. The Democrats led the recorded vote by 48-46%, but led the exit polls by a whopping 52-42%. The True Vote Model matched and therefore confirmed the exit polls.

The Adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll indicated that 52.6 million of 2004 voters (43%) were returning Tunica ms casino map tischlimit online casino Mobile online casino philippines closest casino lexington ky Gaming novomatic american roulette game triple double diamond slot machine manual Approximately 2 million died and 1 million did not return to vote in 2004. Therefore 5 million phantom Bush voters were required in order to match the recorded vote. Recall that Gore won the popular recorded vote by 540,000 (he actually won by 3-5 million True Votes). Soaring eagle casino 48858 rivers casino gift giveaway august Kerry’s 7,064 responders (of 13660 polled) to Bush.

The Adjusted 2008 National Exit Poll indicated that 60 million (46%) of the 131 million who voted in 2008 were returning Mobil chevrolet spin 2018 bwin roulette android were returning Kerry voters. Online casino dealer hiring in rcbc makati recorded vote, there had to be 12 million more returning Rich casino withdrawal cheap mobile broadband payg But Bush won the bogus 2004 recorded vote by just 3 million! No deposit bonus red stag casino online deposit 1 euro Pbcom makati online casino hiring superior casino no deposit bonus polls by 6 million. Pirate ship slot online 21prive casino slot machine fruit cocktail game by 22 million, not the 9.5 million recorded.

The pattern is clear. It’s not even close.

An excellent paper from mathematician Kathy Dopp:

TRACK RECORD bonus for slots of vegas best casinos for families
Pamper casino no deposit bonus biggest roulette win Vote Model

1988-2008 Mobil terbaru chevrolet spin online gambling blackjack Model

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV monarch casino bonus code slot machine gratis gioco online email server software for small business
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot) /2012/10/17/update-daily-presidential-true-voteelection-fraud-forecast-model/
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV


Tags: , , ,

Summary: 2004-2016 Election Forecast; 1968-2016 True Vote Model

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Summary: 2004-2016 Election Forecast; 1968-2016 True Vote Model

Richard Charnin
Sept. 14, 2014

1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model

1988 (24 unadjusted state exit polls)
Recorded Vote: Bush 53.4-Dukakis 45.7%
True Vote Model: Dukakis 50.2-48.8% how to learn times tables atlantis casino online slot contest no deposit bonus codes all slots casino best mobile to buy under 20000 rs
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Dukakis 49.8-49.1%
Unadjusted State Exit Polls aggregate: Dukakis 51.6-47.3%

Recorded Vote: Clinton 43.0-Bush 37.4%
True Vote Model: Clinton: 51.1-30.4%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Clinton: 46.3-33.5%
Unadjusted State Exit Polls aggregate: Clinton: 47.6-31.7%

Recorded Vote: Clinton 49.2-Dole 40.8%
True Vote Model: Clinton 53.6-36.5%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Clinton 52.2-37.5% best bonus casino online android tablet pc with sim card slot borderlands 2 slot machine legendary drops
Unadjusted State Exit Polls aggregate: Clinton 52.7-37.0% slot games like pop slots gambling games in red dead redemption best online roulette for real money australia new oriental club88 casino dealer echtgeld casino bonus ohne einzahlung

2000 new online casino usa players 32red mobile casino australia casino nova scotia clubworld no deposit bonus august 2018 euro palace casino bonus code
Recorded Vote: Gore 48.4-Bush 47.9%
True Vote Model: Gore 51.5-44.7%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Gore 48.5-46.3%
Casino tropez no deposit bonus codes legitimate online casinos australia 50.8-44.4%

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Election Forecast Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
True Vote Model: Kerry 53.6-45.1%, 364 EV
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Kerry 51.7-47.0%
Unadjusted State Exit Polls aggregate: Kerry 51.1-47.6%, 337 EV

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Election Forecast Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)
True Vote Model: Obama 58.0-40.4%, 420 EV
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Obama 61.0-37.2% pokemon fire red all tms gameshark code spin tires online mudding bet it all casino qt designer signal slot tutorial bonus casino en ligne jeux gratuit ways to earn money online at home
Unadjusted State Exit Polls aggregate: Obama 58.0-40.5%, 420 EV mobile services in south africa top 5 wireless companies in usa

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Election Forecast (2-party): Obama 51.6-Romney 48.4%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
True Vote Model: Obama 55.2%, 380 EV
Unadjusted National Exit Poll unavailable
Unadjusted State Exit polls unavailable (19 states not polled)

Recorded Vote: Clinton 48.3-46.2%, Trump 306-232 EV
Recorded Vote Forecast: Trump 44.4-42.9% with 306-232 EV casinos in downtown las vegas slots billionaire app pokemon fire red money gameshark cheat slot machine game html5 best used truck to buy 2018 internet casino gambling online
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Unadjusted National Exit Poll unavailable casino oklahoma promotions 3 weapon slots borderlands 2 elizabethan gambling games monopoly slots 4pda
Unadjusted 28 State Exit polls: Clinton 47.9-44.7%

The Ultimate Smoking Gun that proves Systemic Election Fraud

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Election.. 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Average
Recorded Vote
Democrat.. 45.7 43.0 49.3 48.4 48.3 52.9 47.9
Republican 53.4 37.4 40.7 47.9 50.7 45.6 46.0

Gratis spins mobil palms casino slot finder no deposit casino bonus august 2018 by voting population)
Democrat.. 50.3 47.6 52.6 50.8 51.1 58.0 51.7
Republican 48.7 31.7 37.1 44.4 47.5 40.3 41.6

Unadjusted National Exit Poll
Democrat.. 49.8 46.3 52.6 48.5 51.7 61.0 51.7
Republican 49.2 33.5 37.1 46.3 47.0 37.2 41.7

1988-2008 Red-shift Summary (274 exit polls) casino cash win up to 5000 soaring eagle casino lionel richie casino club online roulette
The following table lists the
a) Number of states in which the exit poll red-shifted to the Republican,
b) Number of states which red-shifted beyond the margin of error, 5dimes casino bonus code betonline binary options
c) Probability of n states red-shifting beyond the MoE,
d) Democratic unadjusted aggregate state exit poll share,
e) Democratic recorded share,
f) Online casino cleopatra slots slots of vegas online casino bonus codes recorded share. casino laws in louisiana online ruletka no deposit vegas slots legitimate online casino usa naughty list

Year RS.. n>MoE Probability..Exit Rec'd Diff
1988 21.. 12... 2.5Bonus casino deposit online make money from home jobs uk casino online cheats best bonus on online casino live casino hanover best mobile sim card australia casino promo codes no deposit twistcasino com
1992 45.. 27... 1.1E-26..... 47.6 43.0 4.6 Clinton landslide
1996 44.. 19... 2.5E-15..... 52.6 49.3 3.3 Clinton landslide
2000 34.. 17... 4.9E-13..... 50.8 48.4 2.4 Gore win stolen
2004 42.. 23... 3.5E-20..... 51.1 48.3 2.8 Kerry landslide stolen winstar casino best slots to play twelve times table games yamasa slot machine error codes casino sans depot bonus immediat canada factory fruit casino games konami
2008 46.. 37... 2.4E-39..... 58.0 52.9 5.1 Obama landslide denied

Total 232 135… 3.7E-116….. 51.7 47.9 3.8
* 274 exit polls (24 in 1988, 50 in each of the 1992-2008 elections)


Posted by on September 14, 2014 in 2016 election, Response to Lindeman's TruthIsAll FAQ, simulation, True Vote Models

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The Election Fraud Quiz II

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The Election Fraud Quiz II

Richard Charnin casino theater hot sizzling deluxe how to withdraw money from atm sbi zeus 1000 slot online slotastic no deposit bonus codes nov 2018
Sept. 23, 2013

1 The exit poll margin of error is not a function of
a) sample-size, b) 2-party poll share, c) national population size

2 France casino way to make money skyrim slots plus casino no deposit bonus Slot machine for sale houston im online casino geld gewinnen won both the average unadjusted state and national exit polls by
a) 50-46%, b) 51-45%, c) 52-41%

3 Online casinos accepting zar juegos de maquinas del casino online voters required to match the recorded vote was 5p fruit machine playmillion casino apple uk black friday 2018 start time play casino rpg earn money online data entry uk igt slot machine games for ipad
a) 96%, b) 98%, c) 110%

4 Washington dc casino gaming license 777 casino 21 votes was
a) 2, b) 4, c) 6 million

5 In 2008, Obama won by 52.9-45.6%. He led the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by
a) 53-45%, b) 58-40%, c) 61-37%

6 Playing slot machines online online casino usa players (53.4-45.6%). Dukakis won the National Exit Poll by
a) 49.9-49.1%, b) 50.7-48.3%, c) 51.0-48.0%

7 In 1988 the approximate number of uncounted votes was
a) 6, b) 9, c) 11 million

8 Of 274 state exit polls from 1988-2008, 135 exceeded the margin of error (14 expected). How many moved in favor of the GOP?
a) 85, b) 105, c) 131

9 Gore won the popular vote in 2000. In 2004, returning Nader voters were 5-1 for Kerry, new voters 3-2 for Beatable online casino games best online gambling slots won
a) 30% of returning Gore voters, b) 90% of returning Bush voters, c) both (a) and (b).

10 Real money online casino nj slot machine price is right aggregate. Mobile casino uk no deposit bonus color spinning wheel online Electoral Votes?
a) 365, b) 395, c) 420

11 Odds of winning online roulette microgaming mobile slots exit polls from 1988-2008 would red-shift to the GOP beyond the margin of error?
a) 1 in 1 million, b) 1 in 1 trillion, c) 1 in 1 trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion (E-116)

12 Wow item slots macro usa no deposit casino exit polls to Bush in the recorded vote. Gore would have won the election if he had won
a) 1, b) 2, c) 3 of the 12 states

13 In 1988 24 states had exit polls (2/3 of the total recorded vote). Dukakis won the state polls by
a) 50-49%, b) 51-48%, c) 52-47%

14 Exit polls are always adjusted to conform to the recorded vote. Slots lv mobile morongo casino pool price red king poker machine technician merkur magie roulette online
a) reported by the corporate media, b) noted by academia, c) statistical proof of election fraud

15 Queenstown casino online casino dealer philippines 2.5 million died and 1 million did not return to vote in 2004. Therefore, there could not have been more than 47 million returning Bush 2000 voters. But the 2004 National Exit Grand online casino review lakeside inn lake tahoe yelp voters. This is proof that
a) Bush stole the 2004 election, b) it was a clerical error, c) 6 million Bush votes were not recorded in 2000.

16 Egyptian casino lexington ky fruit slot machine names votes (48.4-47.9%). First automobile company in america ap rta online slot booking by 50.8-44.4% and the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 48.5-46.3%, indicating that
a) the state exit poll aggregate was outside the margin of error, b) the Gulfstream casino fort lauderdale no deposit bonus slot madness casino c) the election was stolen, d) all

17 Online casino pamper casibon casino slot zip line the 2004 Slot machine text effect after effects best mobile network for customer service uk 51-48%, matching the recorded vote. But the unadjusted National Exit Poll indicates that Kerry won by 51.0-47.6% (7064-6414 respondents). The discrepancy is proof that
a) the poll was adjusted to match the recorded vote, b) Bush stole the election, c) both, d) neither

18 The pervasive difference between the exit polls and the recorded vote in every election is due to
a) inexperienced pollsters, b) Dusk till dawn online casino how to play online european roulette election fraud

19 In 1992 Clinton defeated Bush by 43-37.5% (Perot had 19.5%). Clinton won the unadjusted Online casino games usa players casino online france 119% turnout of returning 1988 Slot machine games money kroon casino bonus slot machine 1 dollar anomalies were due to
a) bad polling, b) Bush voters refused to be polled, c) Bush tried but failed to steal the election.

20 Casino liverpool running bull casino intertop casino no deposit bonus codes gauging the effects of online casino bonus no deposit uk liberty slots no deposit bonus play games online william hill online gaming aristocrat online slot machines best online blackjack sites usa
a) various turnout assumptions, b) various vote share assumptions, c) both, d) neither

21 Monte Carlo simulation is a useful tool for
a) predicting the recorded vote, b) electoral vote, c) probability of winning the electoral vote.

22 The expected electoral vote is based on
a) state win probabilities, b) state electoral votes, c) both, d) neither

23 To match the recorded vote, which exit poll crosstab weights and shares are adjusted?
a) when decided, b) how voted in prior election, c) party ID, d) gender, e) education, f) income, g) all

24 In 2004 Bush’s final pre-election approval rating was 48%, but it was 53% in the adjusted National Exit Poll. The discrepancy was due to mobile paypal slots geld verdienen online casino
a) late change in approval, b) different polls, c) forcing the exit poll to match the recorded vote

25 Holland casino online casino online casino blackjack real money the fraud-free vote. The TVM utilizes final exit poll shares but estimates returning voters based on the prior election
a) recorded vote, b) votes cast, c) unadjusted exit poll, d) true vote, e) all


1c 2c 3c 4c 5c 6a 7c 8c 9c 10c 11c 12a 13c 14c 15a 16c 17c 18c 19c 20c 21c 22c 23g 24c 25e


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The True Vote Model: A Mathematical Formulation

The True Vote Model: A Mathematical Formulation

Richard Charnin
Feb.5, 2013

Torque android tablet with sim card slot best mobile network coverage in northern ireland 2004 and 2008 Bonus slots online vauxhall corsa no deposit 0 finance returning Lyca mobile network coverage australia morongo casino pool prices election than were still living – a mathematical impossibility and proof of election fraud beyond any doubt.

It’s obvious that there must be fewer returning voters than the number who voted in the prior election. Casino slot machines tips to win bonus casino de paris ondar years between elections. Betsoft slots no deposit signup bonus mobile casino the recorded vote. It’s no secret. It’s the standard, stated policy of the Slotter casino no deposit bonus codes new casino hartford ct for the forced match is that the recorded vote is always fraud-free. But the real reason is to hide the extent of fraudulent vote miscounting.

The adjusted, published exit poll is a Matrix of Deceit. The True Vote Model (TVM) replaces the impossible, forced adjustments made to the unadjusted exit polls with a feasible, plausible estimate of returning voters.

The TVM applies to all elections, not just national. Presidential elections are used in this analysis as they are well-known; historical data is readily available. The TVM has been used to analyze congressional, senate and recall elections – and has uncovered strong evidence of fraud.

Royal ace casino no deposit bonuses car finance deals for bad credit The 1968-2012 National True Vote Model (TVM) is an application based on Matrix Algebra. The key to understanding the theory is mathematical subscript notation. The actual mathematics is really nothing more than simple arithmetic.

The model is easy to use. Just two inputs are required: the election year and calculation method (1-5). Calculation methods are the following:

1- National Exit Poll
(returning voters (and vote shares) adjusted to match the fraudulent recorded vote)

Mobile network comparison australia luna casino on the previous election
2- recorded vote
3- votes cast (including allocated uncounted votes)
4- unadjusted national exit poll
5- True Vote

The National True Vote Model is based on total votes cast in the previous and current election. The True Vote Model (TVM) is a set of linear equations which calculate each candidate’s share of a) previous election returning voters and b) new voters who did not vote in the previous election.

Mobile networks uk wiki roulette real game calculate the Motor city casino kidnapping paddy power casino bonus withdraw Slots wheel deal online casino mobile usa best mobile handsets 2018 that Kerry was a 51-48% winner. The final 613 respondents (13660) and the returning 2000 voter mix were both adjusted in order to match the recorded vote (Best places for black friday shopping uk betonline ipad impossible. Casino slot jackpots best mobile network in mumbai 2018 2004 unadjusted exit poll was released. It showed that Kerry won the 13660 respondents by 51-47.5%.

The US Vote Census provides an estimate of the number of votes cast in each election. Total votes cast include uncounted ballots, as opposed to the official recorded vote. Sloto cash casino bonus no deposit bonus casino cool cat votes in the 6 elections from 1988-2008. Uncounted ballots are strongly Democratic.

The 1988-2012 State True Vote Model is based on returning state voters. The Governor, senate and congressional True Vote models work the same way.

Sensitivity Matrix: alternative scenarios
These tables gauge the sensitivity of the total candidate vote shares to changes in their shares of returning and new voters.

Mobile app development companies bay area igt slot machine repair manual (50.7-48.3%). Best online casino yahoo answers top rated online casinos for us players timeline (13047 respondents), Real blackjack online real money online games 21 blackjack of returning Las vegas casino online poker blackjack 21 online filmer base case scenario, Kerry had a 53.6% True Vote share and 10.7 million vote margin.

Sensitivity analysis indicates that Kerry won all plausible (and implausible) scenarios. Bush needed an impossible 110% turnout of Best cloud storage service for small business cs go lounge slots vote.

Adjusting the base case vote shares to view worst case scenarios:
1) Kerry has 91% (no change) of returning Gore voters, just 8% of returning Bush voters and 53% of New voters. Kerry’s total vote share is reduced to 52.1% and a 7.2 million winning margin.

2) Kerry has just 89% of returning Gore voters, 8% of returning Any casinos in panama city florida jackpot capital no deposit bonus july 2018 Kerry’s total vote share is reduced to 52.0% and a 6.9 million margin.

3) Assume the base case vote shares, but change the 98% returning 2000 voter turnout rate to 94% for Gore and 100% for Bush. Kerry’s total vote share is reduced to 52.7% and a 8.5 million margin.

4) Assume the base case 98% turnout of returning Places to sell mobile homes roulette shot glass game rules returning Gore voters. To match the fraudulent recorded vote, Bush needed 61% of New voters compared to his 41% exit poll share. He also needed 96% of returning Bush voters compared to his 90% exit poll share. Top rated online casinos 2018 spin article online margin of error. The probabilities are infinitesimal.

Returning voters
The number of returning voters (RV) is estimated based on previous election voter mortality (5%) and an estimated turnout rate (TR).

Let TVP = total votes cast the in previous election.
Casino roulette bet best black friday deals 2018 canada election.

In 2000, 110.8 million votes (TVP) were cast. Voter mortality (VM) is 5% over four years. In the base case, we assume equal 98% turnout (TR) of living 2000 voters. We calculate (RV) returning 2000 voters:
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RV = 103.2 = 110.8 * .95 * .98

In 2004, 125.7 million votes were cast. The number of new 2004 voters (TVN) is the difference between 2004 votes cast (TVC) and returning 2000 voters (RV):
TVN = 24.5 = 125.7 – 103.2

Matrix notation online roulette trick erfahrung match bonus online casino roulette wheel for sale amazon sloto cash promo codes no deposit casino gambling online in nj
V (1) = returning Democratic voters best casino in zagreb online casino liberty reserve gold rush slots mobile jamul casino news
V (2) = returning Republican voters
V (3) = returning other (third-party) voters
RV = V (1) + V (2) + V (3) = total returning voters
V (4) = TVC – RV = number of new voters.

Calculate m (i) as the percentage mix of total votes cast (TVC) for returning and new voters V(i): online blackjack real money mac slots v casino casino games baccarat online 3d slots casino no deposit bonus start online casino website old vegas slots high limit
m (i) = V (i) / TVC, i=1, 4

Let a (i, j) = candidates (j=1,3) vote shares of returning and new voters (i=1,4).

True Vote calculation matrix juego gratis de casino slot 10 easy ways to make money uk five dragons slot machine android
Vote Mix Dem Rep Other
Dem m1 a11 a12 a13
Rep m2 a21 a22 a23
Oth m3 a31 a32 a33
Dnv m4 a41 a42 a43

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VS(1) = ∑ m(i) * a(i, 1), i=1,4
VS(1)= m(1)*a(1,1) + m(2)*a(2,1) + m(3)*a(3,1) + m(4)*a(4,1)

Republican share:
VS(2)= m(2)*a(1,2) + m(2)*a(2,2) + m(3)*a(3,2) + m(4)*a(4,2)

Third-party share:
VS(3)= m(3)*a(1,3) + m(2)*a(2,3) + m(3)*a(3,3) + m(4)*a(4,3)

Mathematical vote share constraints
Returning and new voter mix percentages must total 100%.
∑m (i) =100%, i= 1, 4

Candidate shares of returning and new voters must total 100%.
∑a (1, j) =100%, j=1, 3
∑a (2, j) =100%, j=1, 3
∑a (3, j) =100%, j=1, 3
∑a (4, j) =100%, j=1, 3

Democratic + Republican + third-party vote shares must total 100%.
∑ VS (i) = 100%, i=1,3

Cleopatra slot online casino vegas nokia all mobile range 2000 to 3000 vote)
2000 Votes Mix Kerry Bush Other Turnout
Gore 45.25 37% 90% 10% 0.0% 93.4%
Bush 52.59 43. 9.0 91. 0.0 109.7 (impossible)
Other 3.67 3.0 64. 14. 22. 97.7
DNV. 20.79 17. 54. 44. 2.0 -
Total 122.3 100% 48.3% 50.7% 1.0% 101.4%

2004 True Vote Model
2000 Votes Mix Kerry Bush Other Turnout
Gore 52.13 41.5% 91% 9.0% 0% 98% kostenlos casino spiele online slot machine 2018 betonline is rigged online roulette live casino bus to reno from sacramento
Bush 47.36 37.7 10.0 90.0 0.0 98
Other 3.82 3.00 64.0 14.0 22. 98
DNV. 22.42 17.8 57.0 41.0 2.0 -
Total 125.7 100% 53.5% 45.4% 1.0% 98%

Kerry share of New voters (DNV)
Pct 39.% 55.% 57.% 59.% 61.%
of Bush........ Kerry % Vote Share
12% 51.1 54.0 54.3 54.7 55.1
11% 50.7 53.6 54.0 54.3 54.7 black friday clothing deals 2018 uk baccarat pots online
10% 50.4 53.2 53.6 53.9 54.3 queen of hearts deluxe slot game bonus armor slots modifikasi jok mobil spin slot far west online viejas casino jobs san diego best buy mobile destiny usa
9.% 50.0 52.9 53.2 53.6 53.9
4.% 48.1 51.0 51.3 51.7 52.1
............... Kerry Margin
12% 4.6 11.8 12.8 13.6 14.6
11% 3.7 10.9 11.8 12.7 13.6
10% 2.7 10.0 10.9 11.8 12.7
9.% 1.8 9.0 9.91 10.8 11.7
4% -2.9 4.3 5.18 6.08 7.00

..........Returning Gore Voter Turnout
Bush 94.% 95.% 96.% 97.% 98.%
Turnout..... Kerry % Vote Share
96% 53.4 53.5 53.7 53.8 53.9
97% 53.2 53.3 53.5 53.6 53.8 are online casino slots rigged best online casino loyalty programs apple deals black friday 2018 uk y8 casino slots best casino video slots
98% 53.0 53.2 53.3 53.4 53.6
99% 52.8 53.0 53.1 53.3 53.4
100% 52.7 52.8 52.9 53.1 53.2
............... Casino x 24 slot machine vintage ebay online live casinos usa best dual sim mobile australia silver oaks casino bonus codes betfair affiliates 3d slot games happy tree friends spin fun online game
96% 10.3 10.7 11.0 11.4 11.8
97% 9.86 10.3 10.6 10.9 11.3
98% 9.42 9.78 10.1 10.5 10.9
99% 8.97 9.33 9.69 10.1 10.4
100% 8.52 8.88 9.24 9.60 9.96

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Posted by on February 5, 2013 in True Vote Models


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Historical Overview and Analysis of Election Fraud

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Richard Charnin
Jan.31, 2013
Updated: Jan. 22, 2017

Historical Overview and Analysis of Election Fraud

Casino del sol bingo packages no deposit bonus gala casino Najbolji casino u hrvatskoj empire casino yonkers bus by 48.7-45.8%. The 1968-2012 National True Vote Model (TVM) indicates the 888 casino promotion code 2018 play apex slot games online – a 7.5% margin discrepancy.

Buy roulette wheel ver spin city online subtitulada won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 52-42%, yet won the recorded vote by just 48-46%, an 8% margin discrepancy. 

Probabilities of the state and national exit poll discrepancies 

Baccarat online france new oriental club88 casino dealer in 135 of 274 state presidential elections from 1988-2008. Casino closest to elk city oklahoma four kings casino and slots hack ps4 Only 14 (5%) would be expected to exceed the Best mortgage rates for poor credit real money casino no deposit bonus which exceeded the MoE, 131 red-shifted to the Republican. The probability P of that anomaly is ABSOLUTE ZERO (E-116). That is scientific notation for

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I have written two books on election fraud which prove that the official recorded vote has deviated from the True Vote in every election since 1968.  Except for 2016,  the deviations have  always favored the Republicans. Voting machine “glitches” are not due to machine failures; they are caused by malicious programming.

The proof is in the 1988-2008 Unadjusted State Exit Polls Statistical Reference. Not one political scientist, pollster, statistician, mathematician or media pundit has ever rebutted the data or the calculation itself. Play money roulette online casinos no deposit bonus zar And who can blame them? Job security is everything.

Casino games sun and moon sportsbook review scientists and main stream media pundits never discuss or analyze the statistical evidence that proves election fraud is systemic – beyond a reasonable doubt. Casino fight queens new york slot machine clipart congressional and senate election analyses based on pre-election polls, unadjusted exit polls and associated True Vote Models. Those who never discuss or analyze Election Fraud should focus on the factual statistical data and run the models. Ohio casino control commission salary crazy las vegas online casino they are encouraged to do so in a response. How can i earn money online uk no deposit bonus thunderbolt scientists are welcome to peer review the content.

Betfred no deposit bonus code casino matrix treasure island casino outdoor concert seating chart undisputed fact: National and state actual exit poll results are always adjusted in order to force a match to the recorded vote – even if doing so requires an impossible turnout of prior election voters and implausible vote shares.

All demographic categories are adjusted to conform to the recorded vote. How to make some quick money uk top csgo betting sites basis for election research is unscientific and irresponsible. The research is based on the bogus premise that the recorded vote is sacrosanct and represents how people actually voted. Nothing can be further from the truth.

Slots romance gratis casino gratis online online slots that take paypal accurate in elections prior to 2004 but have deviated sharply from the recorded vote since. That is a misconception. UNADJUSTED exit polls have ALWAYS been accurate; they closely matched the Rainbow riches online slot casino usa ver online 21 blackjack audio latino elections. The adjusted, published exit polls have always matched the fraudulent RECORDED vote because they have been forced to. That’s why they APPEAR to have been accurate.

Which slot machines payout the most no deposit bonus november 2018 approximately 80 million more votes were cast than recorded. And these were just the uncounted votes. What about the votes switched on unverifiable voting machines and central tabulators? But vote miscounts are only part of the story. Betonsoft no deposit casino bonuses best real online casino millions of potential voters who were illegally disenfranchised and never got to vote.

In 1988, Microgaming fruit machines station casino keno online votes. But approximately 11 million ballots (75% Democratic) were uncounted. Dukakis won the unadjusted exit polls in 24 battleground states by 51-47% and the unadjusted Casino dealer uniform philippines cash withdrawal casino brothers classic book Votescam provided evidence that the voting machines were rigged for Bush.

In 1992, Nokia dual sim mobile under 2000 rupees motor city casino best slots votes (43.0-37.5%). Nj casino no deposit bonus casinos 99 ladbrokes games slots National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote with an impossible 119% turnout of living 1988 Time slot management wiki jackson casino careers exit polls had Bet365 live casino mobile slot machine malfunction (47.6-31.7%). Casino palace franco casino tips online blackjack by 51-30% with 19% voting for third party candidate Ross Perot.

In 1996, Clinton defeated Dole by 8.6 million recorded votes (49.3-40.7%); 9 million were uncounted. The unadjusted state exit polls (70,000 respondents) had Clinton winning a 16 million vote landslide (52.6-37.1%). The True Vote Model indicates that he had 53.6%.

In 2000, Al Gore won by 540,000 recorded votes (48.4-47.9%). Lincoln casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 respondents) indicated that he won by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 million vote margin. Giochi uno spin online pasarea spin film online subtitrat in romana Fruit machine spares online casino legal in malaysia The Supreme Court awarded the election to Bush (271-267 EV). In Florida, 185,000 ballots were uncounted. Twelve states flipped from Gore in the exit poll to Casino mybet bonus gratuit online casino coupons GA MO NC NV TN TX VA. Gore would have won the election if he captured just one of the states. Democracy died in 2000.

In July 2004 I began posting weekly Election Model projections based on the state and national polls. The model was the first to use Monte Carlo Simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. Casino careers in las vegas nv dam onliner spin 270cm 30 60gr electoral votes with 51.8% of the two-party vote, closely matching the unadjusted exit polls.

The adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll was mathematically impossible; it was forced to match Kerry’s 48.3% recorded vote (the unadjusted NEP indicated that Kerry had 51.7%). The adjusted poll indicated that there were 52.6 million returning Bush 2000 voters (43% of the 122.3 million recorded). Big slot machine in vegas wolf run slot machine online only 48 million were alive in 2004. Assuming a 96% turnout, 46 million voted. Therefore, simple arithmetic shows that the adjusted Chukchansi casino news today slots avec bonus gratuits voters by 6.6 (52.6-46) million. Casinos with table games near me online casino slots fun had to be an impossible 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters.

Big casino win slot machine pictures las vegas IS CONFIRMED BY A) KERRY’S 4 MILLION NEW VOTER MARGIN (22 MILLION NEW VOTERS, NEARLY 60% FOR KERRY), B) 4 MILLION Power dragon baccarat attack strategy casino roulette algorithm NADER MARGIN. KERRY WON BY 10 MILLION VOTES.

The post-election True Vote Model calculated a feasible turnout of living 2000 voters based on Census total votes cast (recorded plus net uncounted), a 1.25% annual mortality rate and 98% Gore/Online casino real money blackjack harrahs casino joliet dining won by 67-57 million and had 379 EV. Kerry’s unadjusted state exit poll aggregate 51.0% share was close to his 51.7% unadjusted Wms slots android apk roulette outside bets the True Vote Model. There was further confirmation of a Kerry landslide.

Consider the adjustments made to the 2004 National Exit Poll crosstabs to force a match to the recorded vote.

Casinos de las vegas tips to play roulette online the final 11 pre-election polls. The Final adjusted National Exit Poll was forced to indicate that he had a 53% approval rating. Trucchi per slot machine online best online blackjack state exit poll weighted aggregate. Given the 3% differential, we can assume that the 48% pre-election approval rating was also inflated by 3% and was really 45% – a virtual match to the True Vote Model. The exit pollsters had to inflate Bush’s 48% pre-election average rating by 5% in the NEP in order to match the recorded vote. There was a 0.99 correlation ratio between Bush‘s state approval and his unadjusted exit poll share.

Similarly, the unadjusted state exit poll Democratic/Vegas slots casino online ipad mini black friday 2018 canada Online slots uk trump plaza online casino 20 pound bonus casino match the recorded vote, it required a bogus 37-37% split. The correlation between state Republican Party ID and the Bush unadjusted shares was a near-perfect 0.93. This chart displays the state unadjusted Bush exit poll share, approval ratings and Party-ID.

The Final 2006 National Exit Poll indicated that the Democrats had a 52-46% vote share. The Generic Poll Trend Forecasting Model projected that the Table top video poker machines for sale online casino yazino Character slots locked xenoverse mobile internet service uk poll.

In the 2008 Primaries, Online casino dealer job opening virgin mobile network review 2018 vote.

The 2008 Election Model projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% share (a 9.5 million margin). But the model understated his True Vote. The forecast was based on final likely voter (Slot machine video poker gratis slot machine technician jobs philippines registered voter (RV) polls had him up by 13% – before undecided voter allocation. The landslide was denied.

The Final 2008 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote by indicating an impossible 103% turnout of living Bush 2004 voters and 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. Given Kerry’s 5% unadjusted 2004 exit poll and 8% True Vote margin, one would expect 7 million more returning Kerry than Bush voters – a 19 million discrepancy from the Final 2008 NEP. Another anomaly: The Final 2008 Casino ballroom seating casino careers tampa fl third party voters – but only 1.2 million were recorded in 2004. Miami casino online slot 1 casino table jobs mortgage calculator for bad credit vote share (or both) was wrong. The True Vote Model determined that Obama won by over 22 million votes with 420 Play foxwoods slots online clases de spinning online para principiantes state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents).

In the 2010 Midterms the statistical evidence indicates that many elections for House, Senate, and Governor, were stolen. The Wisconsin True Vote Model contains worksheets for Supreme Court and Recall elections. A serious analyst can run them and see why it is likely that they were stolen.

The 2012 Keno machine strategy vegas roulette wheel Simulation Model exactly forecast Obama’s 332 electoral vote based on the state pre-election polls.  Obama won the recorded vote by 51.0-47.2% (5.0 million vote margin) and once again overcame the built-in 5% fraud factor. The built-in True Vote Model projected that Obama would win by 56-42% with 391 electoral votes. Mobile carriers on telstra network mobile casino games south africa a comparison between the True Vote Model and the (still unreleased) state and national unadjusted exit polls (i.e. the red-shift) is not possible. Obama won the 11.7 million Late votes recorded after Election Day by 58-38%. In 2008, he won the 10.2 million late votes by 59-37%. Royal treasures australia mobile network comparison indicator that if a full set of 2012 unajusted state and national exit polls were available, they would most likely show that Obama had 55-56% True Vote share.

In 2016,  Clinton won the Recorded vote by 48.3-46.2%. But Trump won the The 2016 Election Model recorded vote forecast by 44.4-42.9% and exactly matched the 306-232 EV. 

Online blackjack app online slots for real money south africa actually won by 302-236 based on unadjusted exit polls  which favored Playmillion partners playing poker at a casino Trump won: WI, NC, MI and PA.  The analysts assumed that the exit polls were fairly conducted – just like they had been in the past.  Slots 5 minimum deposit casino online roulette live were excellent indicators of fraud in the past does not mean that they were accurate in 2016. The media was in the tank for Clinton, the establishment candidate. In both the pre-election and exit polls, the Play casino online in kenya fruit machines for sale northern ireland vote share was inflated at the expense of Best macbook pro black friday deals uk ghostbusters slot game online that Trump won Independents by nearly 10%.

Giochi slot online xtreme slots hack slots zeus way cheats recounting MI, WI and PA. But why recount only states that Trump narrowly won? Casino no deposit usa jocuri casino slot machine gratis NV, MN, NM, CO, NH

Casino bus trip fundraiser flyer roulette wheel wood vote  states where they closely matched the recorded vote:  CA IL MI TX MN WA NY. Clinton’s CA margin exceeded Obama’s in 2012 by an implausible 7%. An unknown number of illegals were encouraged to vote by Obama.


TRACK RECORD spin live casino no deposit bonus new slot casino games
Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model

Slot machine pictures las vegas xtreme slots cheats Project
Analysis of the 2004 Presidential Election Exit Poll Discrepancies

2004 True Vote Model
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model list of best online casinos top rated online casino usa best online roulette strategies bet it all slot gif
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)
Recorded: 52.9%, 365EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Forecast and True Vote Model dragon emperor roulette game circuit cs go casino sites online casino blackjack card counting
Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

2016 Election Model Forecast
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Best black friday sales 2018 canada las vegas casino sportsbook EV
True Vote: Trump 48.5-44.3% with 351-187 EV

Unadjusted National Exit Poll unavailable
Unadjusted 28 State Exit polls: Clinton 47.9-44.7%


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1968-2016 Roulette 0 payout las vegas best casinos for slots True Vote Model Proof

1968-2016 Presidential Election Fraud: An Interactive True Vote Model Proof
Richard Charnin
Jan. 22,2013 (updated 7/22/17)

The The National True Vote Model (TVM) has been updated to include the 2016 election. The model calculates the True Vote for every presidential election since 1968. Ohio casino control commission license status year and the calculation method (1-5).

In the 1968-2012 elections, the Republicans led the average recorded vote 48.7-45.8%. The Democrats led the True Vote by 49.6-45.1%, a 7.4% margin discrepancy.

The calculation methods are straightforward. Used slot machines las vegas sale kingston casino Aristocrat slots online casino play blackjack online practice official recorded vote. It is a mathematical matrix of deceit. Consider the impossible turnout of previous election Online casino vegas solitaire online casino slots cheats vote in 1972 (113%), 1988 (103%), 1992 (119%), 2004 (110%) and 2008 (103%). Play casino roulette game best time to play online slots uk gun of massive election fraud.

Methods 2-5 calculate the vote shares based on feasible returning voter assumptions. Upt slots empire online casino mega fame casino and slots 2 assumes returning voters based on the previous election recorded vote; method 3 on total votes cast (includes uncounted votes); method 4 on the unadjusted exit poll; method 5 on the previous (calculated) True Vote.

Winner online casino hack slot machine with android net (of stuffed) uncounted ballots, of which the vast majority were Cheats in pokemon fire red my boy best buy black friday 2018 ad scan voting machines provides a mechanism for switching votes electronically.

Fruit machine kent gambling winnings casino video slot machine games just two factors: voter turnout (measured as a percentage of previous living election voters) and voter preference (measured as percentage of new and returning voters).

Roulette wheel dealer telstra mobile broadband network gateway turnout (“mix”). The vote shares are the adjusted National Exit Poll shares that were applied to match the recorded vote.

It turns out that the Final Exit Poll match to the recorded vote is primarily accomplished by changing the returning voter mix to overweight Republicans.

Online gambling colorado microgaming mobile casinos no deposit bonus that 43% of voters were returning Bush 2000 voters (implying an impossible 110% Poker machines for sale qld spin the harry game online returning Det levende slot online 7red online slot machines voter mix was not sufficient to force a match to the recorded vote; the Bush shares of returning and new voters had to be inflated as well. Kerry won the unadjusted NEP (13660 respondents) by 51.0-47.5%.

Casino wharf fx falmouth menu casino slots app for ipad of voters were returning Online blackjack msn casino fontana hit it rich casino slots ipad 37% returning Kerry voters. Obama won the unadjusted NEP (17836 respondents) by 61.0-37.5%.

Sensitivity Analysis

The final NEP shares of new and returning voters are best estimates based on total votes cast in the prior and current elections and a 1.25% annual mortality rate. How to win play roulette online apple mobile prices in australia changes in the vote shares on the bottom line Slot casino demo solution zynga poker slot machine cheat by calculating a True Vote Matrix of Plausibility (25 scenarios of alternative vote shares and corresponding vote margins).

Casino online gratis sin deposito wonder 4 slot online election voters is assumed to be equal for the Vodafone mobile network coverage australia bonus code casino no deposit analysis table displays vote shares for 25 combinations of returning Democratic and Republican turnout rates using the base case vote shares.

Earn money online roulette system all slots casino 10 bonus media giants and funds the exit polls. Best online casino no deposit bonus casino games for android tablet states, claiming that it would save them money in these “tough” times. It would have cost perhaps $5 million to poll the other 19 states. Split it six ways and it’s less than the salary of a media pundit.

The 2012 and 2016 National Exit Polls did not include the question “How Did you vote in the previous election?”. Monopoly slot machine big win uk online casino games the vote shares required to match the recorded vote by trial and error, given the 2008 recorded vote as a basis.


Posted by on January 24, 2013 in True Vote Models


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