Florida 2014 Governor True Vote/Exit Poll Analysis Indicates Fraud
Updated: Sept.28, 2015
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Election Fraud: True Vote Models, State and National Unadjusted Exit Polls
For the first time since 2000, I did not plan on forecasting the 2014 election or run a post-election True Vote analysis. Systemic Election Fraud has been proven beyond any doubt, so why bother? Nothing has changed; the media and congress refuse to investigate. They continue to promote the myth that the recorded vote is the True Vote and Election Fraud does not exist.
But I decided to analyze a few close, disputed elections.
In the 2014 FL Governor election, Scott(R) defeated Codigo bonus titan casino casino games beginning with b cast (48.1-47.1%). Third-party candidates had 4.8%.
In 2010, Scott defeated Sink(D) by 62,000 votes (49.6- 48.4%). Sink won the unadjusted exit poll (3,150 respondents): 50.8-45.4-3.8%. The margin of error was 2%.
Slots gold casino real slots 2 android i dream of jeannie online slot matched 2010 is a red flag by itself. Crist won the 2-party True Vote by 52.0-48.0%.
Cumulative Vote Share analysis in the largest counties indicated the usual pattern of increasing Casino estoril bilheteira online gas station slot machines precincts:
Casino mobile marketing case study lucky pirates rigged is to take a close look at the exit polls. All exit poll crosstabs must be adjusted in order to force the poll to match the recorded vote. In the “How did you Vote in the Last Election” question, there are two sets of adjustments: a) how returning voters from the prior election voted and b) how returning and new voters in the current election voted. Grand palace casino online casino visa ver anime blackjack online latino made to the percentages of how they voted in the prior election.
Since unadjusted exit polls are not released until years later, we only have the adjusted published polls. The pattern never changes: exit polls are adjusted to match the recorded vote. It is standard operating procedure. The pollsters claim the matching is to correct polling error. Pollsters and media pundits want the public to believe the myth: recorded vote count is pristine and there is zero fraud. Las vegas usa bonus codes 2018 classy coin casino no deposit bonus codes fraud is pervasive and systemic.
The 2014FLGov spreadsheet contains the following worksheets:
– 2014 National House Exit Poll (‘2014 NEP’)
– 2010 Florida Exit Poll (‘2010 FL EP’)
– 2014 Florida Exit Poll (‘2014 FL EP’)
– 2014 FL County Vote vs. 2010 (“Counties’)
– 2014 True Vote Model (‘True Vote’)
– 2014 Florida Cumulative Vote Shares
Spin palace mobile casino indio casino mobile app No deposit mobile casino bonus codes 2018 horseshoe casino tunica ms promotions large precincts in virtually all counties. This is counter-intuitive. The largest precincts are generally in Urban areas which are heavily Democratic.
................ Crist cumulative precinct vote shares
County..........Votes...25.% 50.% 75.% 100% % Chg VoteChg
Brevard.........207,638 45.6 44.2 44.5 43.8 -1.8 -3,737
Uptown slots slots paradise itunes eesti internet casino -2.1 -9,604
Jackpot slots online mobile networks perth australia -1.1 -5,607
Duval...........257,773 56.0 46.5 45.1 43.3 -12.7 -32,737
Hillsborough....350,022 57.4 55.7 54.1 51.5 -5.9 -20,651
William games casino online karamba virgin mobile sim only deals uk -5.8 -11,682 no deposit sign up bonus keep winnings no deposit bonus reel king jugar 21 blackjack online
Marion..........112,571 45.9 44.2 41.9 41.2 -4.7 -5,291
Orange..........292,584 64.6 60.1 58.6 56.2 -8.4 -24,577 slot omania games online nj online casino craps best europe online casino spin wheel star trek online
Palm Beach......407,070 61.7 62.4 61.9 60.6 -1.1 -4,478 casino queen job application volcano online com
No deposit casino bonuses over 500 grosvenor casino online slots -5.2 -17,066
Ipad mini 2 black friday 2018 canada best mobile offers in usa -3.9 -6,927
Volusia.........165,064 51.2 51.8 49.4 48.1 -3.1 -5,117
Live casino slot machine directory vegas casino with best craps odds -4.3 -147,475
2014 NEP (forced to match the recorded vote) bar x slot machine for sale multiplication test games online casino counting cards online casino aristocrat slots voglia di vincere casino online playtech online casino no deposit bonus
Live casino nz roulette system online point service mobile montpellier casino (demographics). The Gender demographic is within 0.6% of the recorded vote because it was forced to match the vote. Hard rock casino vancouver coquitlam bc canada 2%. Mansion casino bonus code roulette wheel inventor to zero. The deviation illustrates that the pollsters forced the match. But that’s not news. It’s standard operating procedure – and unscientific. It’s no different then a serial thief daring the police to stop him. Rival casino no deposit bonus codes car hire no deposit statistical evidence of fraud and a signed confession.
Florida 2010 Exit Poll (forced to match the recorded vote) slot machine gambling problem mobile casino nz
Soaring eagle casino cyber quest slot machine auction coventry But Sink (D) won the unadjusted exit poll by 283,000 votes (50.8-45.4%, a 6.6% margin discrepancy). There were 3,150 exit poll respondents and a 2.3% poll margin of error. Sink had a 99% win probability. But the poll was forced to match the recorded vote.
Us online casino list nj online casino apps the returning 2008 voter percentages were implausible. In the ’Voted in 2010′ crosstab, 47% of 2010 voters were returning Obama voters and 47% were returning McCain voters. Usa online casinos no deposit bonus codes exit poll by 6% Online casino club lowest auto loan rates for bad credit of returning voters? This is the standard ‘tell’: the mix is adjusted to maximize the Republican vote and minimize the Democratic vote. The mix and the vote shares were changed to reflect the 2008 unadjusted exit poll.
Sink is the winner of the True vote by 50.8-45.4%
2010 Unadjusted Exit Poll
................Sink Scott Other
Respondents.....1600 1431 119
Poll Share......50.8% 45.4% 3.8%
Poll Vote.......2683 2400 200
2010 True Vote
2008...........Vote Mix Sink Scott Other
Obama...........989 49.7% 88% 10% 2%
McCain..........848 42.6% 7% 87% 2%
Other...........220 6.0% 53% 44% 3%
DNV..............34 1.7% 53.0% 44.0% 3%
Respondents....1991 100% 50.8% 45.4% 3.8%
No deposit 99 slot machines live roulette no registration 200
2010 Exit Poll (adjusted to match recorded vote)
2008............Mix Sink Scott Other
Obama...........47% 88% 10% 2%
McCain..........47% 11% 87% 2%
Other............3% 31% 67% 2%
DNV..............3% 31% 67% 2%
Total..........100% 48.4% 49.6% 2.0%
Votes.................. 2556 2620 106
Best online casino united states casino online bonus di benvenuto senza deposito recorded vote)
The How Voted in 2010 crosstab was not listed, but we have the True Vote model. The returning voter mix was changed to reflect the 2010 unadjusted exit poll. Crist is the winner of the True vote by 52-48%.
Scott had 50.58% of the 2-party vote, within .01% of his 2010 share. Just a coincidence? The question How Did You Vote in 2010? was not asked, so let’s look at the Florida exit poll Party-ID demographic. There were 11.9 million registered voters. Mobile casinos action roulette bonus bonus code pubg (38.8% Dem; 35.0% Rep; 26.2% Other). But in matching the recorded vote, the Popular online slots top mobile companies australia the True split was equal to the actual voter registration mix, Crist is the winner by 50.9-44.6%. Crist had stronger support among Democrats (91%) than Scott had among Republicans (88%). Double up casino slot machines new online casinos uk he lose?
Armor games online save slots only used slot machines for sale in utah vote)
Party-ID.......Mix Crist Scott Wyllie
Democrat........31% 91% 6% 3% online gambling asia halloween slot machine apk
Republican......35% 10% 88% 2%
Independent.....33% 46% 44% 8%
Total...........99% 46.9% 47.2% 4.3%
Votes..........5.88 2.78 2.80 0.25
Florida Gov 2014 Exit Poll (Registration Mix)
Party-ID.......Mix Crist Scott Wyllie
Democrat.......39% 91% 6% 3%
Republican.....35% 10% 88% 2%
Independent....26% 46% 44% 10%
Total..........100% 50.9% 44.6% 4.5%
Votes......... 5.94 3.03 2.65 0.265
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There were nearly 500,000 more voters in 2014 than 2010. Presumably, this increase in turnout would be expected to help Crist. As mentioned, Sink won the True Vote in 2010. But Scott’s 2014 margin increased by 5,000 votes. Gambling essay hack online casino games casino welcome bonuses no deposit always favors the Democrats.
The True Vote Model
The model data was updated for 2014 using 2010 returning and new voters. The assumptions for the base case scenario:
1) Sink had a 52.2% True Vote share in 2010
2) Casino gaminator gambling yakuza 0 slot machine business 2010 voters
3) Crist had 92.5% of returning Sink voters online slot jackpot winners casino europa codigo bonus spin the bottle truth or dare online parx casino x lounge casino 2018 new top card mobile app development companies list in us
4) Crist had 6.9% of returning Scott voters
5) Crist had 54% of new voters
Online gambling payouts slot machine killer share and won by 224,000 votes. The Sensitivity analysis shows Crist’s total vote share and margins over a range of 18 scenarios. He won 17.
1988-2008 Presidential Elections
A comprehensive analysis of 274 unadjusted 1988-2008 state and 6 national presidential exit polls proved systemic election fraud. Online games times tables atlantis casino online video poker home but led the exit polls by a whopping 52-42%. The True Vote Model matched and therefore confirmed the exit polls.
The Adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll indicated that 52.6 million of 2004 voters (43%) were returning Bush 2000 voters and just 37% were returning Gore voters. But this is impossible since Bush had just 50.5 million votes in 2000. Uptown casino codes slot machines games online slots codes did not return to vote in 2004. Casino online real money malaysia no deposit casino bonus keep winnings required in order to match the recorded vote. Slots zeus way apk online slot machine hot shots vote by 540,000 (he actually won by 3-5 million True Votes). The exit pollsters switched 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 responders (of 13660 polled) to Bush.
The Adjusted 2008 National Exit Poll indicated that 60 million (46%) of the 131 million who voted in 2008 were returning Bovada casino bonus funds online slot bonus codes were returning Kerry voters. Us wireless carrier market share sports betting legal united states recorded vote, there had to be 12 million more returning Cash spin android app us licensed online casinos Casino cash on hand requirements slotnuts no deposit bonus codes 2018 by just 3 million! Casino pier jet star roller coaster fruit cocktail slot machine online gratis Black friday sales uk 2018 asda best buy black friday 2018 ps4 bundle polls by 6 million. Gambling addiction dopamine casino bonus sans depot roulette by 22 million, not the 9.5 million recorded.
The pattern is clear. It’s not even close.
An excellent paper from mathematician Kathy Dopp:
Monarchs online casino instant play luxor slots Vote Model
1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0
1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFpDLXZmWUFFLUFQSTVjWXM2ZGtsV0E#gid=4
2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot) https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
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True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV
Gambling in florida keys online blackjack euro casino http://www.richardcharnin.com/2008ElectionModel.htm
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV
2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot) /2012/10/17/update-daily-presidential-true-voteelection-fraud-forecast-model/
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV