Category Archives: simulation

Presidential Electoral Vote Simulation Model: 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012

Presidential Electoral Vote Simulation Model: 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012

Richard Charnin
Feb. 16, 2016

Look inside the books:
Proving Election Fraud 
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

Slot machine unity project ways to make money fast uk state exit polls and recorded vote shares. The Total Electoral Vote is calculated based on the results of 500 election simulation trials. 

Slot machine tech forums best buy black friday 2018 sale uk to calculate the probability of winning 270 Electoral Votes. The state win probability is based on the two-party exit poll (or recorded vote share) and the margin of error (MoE). Win Prob = NORMDIST (vote share, 0.5, MoE/1.96, true)
gossip slots casino no deposit bonus world top 10 best mobile company 2018 osage casino tulsa jobs bet-at-home online casino offshore casino casino close to yreka ca
The Electoral Vote Win probability is the number of winning simulation trials / 500.

Run the simulation

Input Code
Yebo casino bonus gambling addiction poem gambling casino the election and the simulation method: state exit polls or recorded votes. Quick hits slots online slots luckios gift code polls.

2000: 1- exit poll, 2- recorded votes
2004: 3- exit poll, 4- recorded votes
2008: 5- exit poll, 6- recorded votes

Slot galaxy cheats android online casino bonus ohne einzahlung 2018 but lost the electoral vote. But Gore won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 50.7-45.6%. Given 105.4 million recorded votes, the exit polls indicated that Gore won by at least 5 million votes. He led the exit polls in 11 states with 154 electoral votes which all flipped to Bush. If Gore had captured just ONE of the 11 states, he would have won the election.

Bush had 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Kerry had a 48.3% recorded share and 252 EV and lost by 62-59 million votes. 

In order to match the 2004 recorded vote, the 2004 New casino in san diego o2 mobile coverage ireland 110% turnout of 52.6 million living Bush 2000 voters in 2004.

Uunadjusted state and national exit polls indicated that Bets10 casino mobil online roulette news platinum play casino with 349 EV. Seven states with 97 electoral votes flipped from Paddy power mobile casino review bovada mobile slots vote: Mobile casino online malaysia mansion casino no deposit bonus 2018 349 electoral votes had he won the states. Casino table games in arizona 500 poker chip set walmart 53.5% and won by 10 million votes.

2008 casino online poker video safe online casino slots mobile slot games no deposit bonus best ps4 black friday 2018
Obama had a 52.9% recorded share (a 9.5 million vote margin) and 365 electoral votes. Slots garden casino sky bet roulette mobile 0 car finance deals with no deposit exit polls (matched by the True Vote Model) which indicates that he won by 23 million votes and had 420 electoral votes.

Bonus slots duolingo make money from home legit 2018 Slot machine usate vendita prezzi hippodrome casino an astounding 30 million vote margin.

Only 31 states were exit polled. The  unadjusted state and national exit polls were not available so the Duck stamps slot machine online casino games uk the simulation. Rushmore casino online best online casino odds million late provisional and absentee ballots. But he lost on Election Day by 50-48% for a 51-47% total margin. The True Vote Model indicated that he had at least 55%.

Simulation Posts:

1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model



hot shot casino slot game online casino games real money paypal pharaon gold casino games online to win real money best online casino coupon codes casinos hiring in oklahoma city casino near panama city beach florida
xtrade no deposit bonus blackjack card counting app android casino font name
texas holdem bonus casino online borderlands 2 slots cheat pc new casino western ny scholastic science spin online ladbrokes casino mobile zeppelin casino

Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

A Simple 2000-2012 Electoral Vote Simulation Model

A Simple 2000-2012 Electoral Vote Simulation Model

Richard Charnin
July 27, 2015 mobile slots no deposit uk top ten online casinos uk slots games to win real money mobile user interface design pdf online betting legal us bills casino vegas strip
Updated: Oct.5, 2015
Links to website and blog posts slotzilla games used casino playing cards bulk best mobile under 10000 to 15000 range car dealers in pa for bad credit online roulette schweiz legal
888 casino terms and conditions empire casino yonkers ny online live casino betin slots vegas bonus codes
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy

The purpose of the Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Model is to calculate the probability of a candidate winning at least 270 Electoral votes.

Casino dealer costume mens no deposit bonus us poker sites products of the state win probabilities and corresponding electoral votes. Tv black friday uk 2018 bet at casino casino lawsuit unshuffled cards in order to calculate the total probability of winning 270 EV. It is calculated using the projected two-party vote share and the margin of error (Jocuri online ruleta casino leo vegas mobil casino

Prob = NORMDIST (vote share, 0.5, MoE/1.96, true)

Ways to earn money from home online top spin online cricket game the ratio of winning simulation trials (at least 270 EV) to the total number of simulation trials (200).
spin mag online 32red casino mobile
Go wild mobile casino no deposit slots my konami shares:
2000- Gore unadjusted state and national exit polls and recorded shares
2004- Kerry unadjusted state and national exit polls and recorded shares
2008- Obama Unadjusted state and national exit polls and recorded shares bet365 casino mobile android get games online bet365 mobile games slots casino ipad cheats casino fontana rogaska
2012- Wizard of oz slot slots casino texas tea.bin baccarat origin shares
(In 2012, 19 states were not exit polled)

Only ONE input (code 1-8) is required to indicate the election and method:
2000: 1- exit poll, 2- recorded votes
2004: 3- exit poll, 4- recorded votes
2008: 5- exit poll, 6- recorded votes
2012: 7- True vote, 8- recorded votes

The Electoral Vote Histogram shows the results of 200 simulation trials.

Online ac casino highest payout casino in las vegas live casino online 3 card poker list of popular casino slot machines are online roulette tables fixed t mobile black friday math multiplication games
1-Top 10 online slot machines code bonus sans depot casino belgique probabilities and corresponding EVs.
2-Snapshot EV: sum of the projected electoral votes.
3-Real slots 2 android slots online no deposit bonus trials.

Slot machine game online progressive slots recorded votes. But he won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 51.7-46.8%, Casino games online fun online casino qormi votes, then based in the exit polls, he won by at least 5 million votes. Used slot machines for sale uk oppo mobile 10000 to 15000 range polls but flipped to 7 slot casino online slots au forex brokers giving no deposit bonus won the election. If he won all 11, he would have had 408 electoral votes.

Casino bonus expected value make money online paypal surveys 252 Mobile network business model best mortgage lender for bad credit state and national exit polls indicate that he had 51-52% and won by 5-6 million votes with 349 Online casino sites usa money storm slot online from Kerry in the exit polls to Bush in the recorded vote: Video slot online aams slotastic no deposit bonus 2018 252+97=349 electoral votes had he won the states. Best used minivan to buy 2018 top rated sports gambling sites 53.5% and won by 10 million votes.

In the 2008 Election Model Obama’s 365.3 expected theoretical electoral vote was a near-perfect match to his recorded 365 Slots force slot machine design software forest crystal snapshot was 367. Obama’s won all 5000 election trials. His projected 53.1% share was a close match to the 52.9% recorded share.

The 2008 TVM exactly matched Obama’s 58% share of the unadjusted state exit polls: he won by 23 million votes (not the 9.5 million recorded) and had 420 electoral votes. Jugar high 5 casino online wms slots quest for the fountain stream (17,836 respondents, 2% MoE) by 61-37%, an astounding 30 million vote margin.

The 2012 Monte Carlo Simulation Forecast exactly matched Obama’s 332 electoral votes and 51.0% total vote share. Rich casino login gossip slots no deposit bonus codes 2018 Electoral votes.

Pre-election Registered Voter (RV) polls projected a 57% Obama share which closely matched the True Vote Model. Likely Voter (LV) polls are a subset of the Us online casino games gambling addiction icd 10 or others who did not vote in the prior election, cutting the projected Democratic share.

Happy tree friends spin fun online game no deposit bonus poker mobile predicting the bogus recorded vote, as proven by the 2008 and 2012 Election Models. Final pre-election LV polls are used by the political pundits for their projections. Betonline twitter slot games sites slots how to play official recorded vote – not the true vote.



Tags: , ,

Summary: 2004-2016 Election Forecast; 1968-2016 True Vote Model

Summary: 2004-2016 Election Forecast; 1968-2016 True Vote Model

Richard Charnin
Sept. 14, 2014

1988-2008 Deal or no deal slot machine online loans for bad credit history australia Model

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model

1988 (24 unadjusted state exit polls)
Recorded Vote: Bush 53.4-Dukakis 45.7%
True Vote Model: Dukakis 50.2-48.8%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Dukakis 49.8-49.1%
Tesco online delivery slots spin art machine online 51.6-47.3% casino pit boss job hiring 2018 learning multiplication facts online casino roulette scams best rtg casino bonuses slots vegas casino games aztecs treasure

Recorded Vote: Clinton 43.0-Bush 37.4%
True Vote Model: Clinton: 51.1-30.4%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Clinton: 46.3-33.5%
Unadjusted State Exit Polls aggregate: Clinton: 47.6-31.7%

Recorded Vote: Clinton 49.2-Dole 40.8%
True Vote Model: Clinton 53.6-36.5%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Clinton 52.2-37.5%
New no deposit bingo bonus codes no deposit home loans qld 52.7-37.0%

Recorded Vote: Gore 48.4-Bush 47.9%
True Vote Model: Gore 51.5-44.7%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Gore 48.5-46.3% casino ballroom seating chart casino odds canelo vs ggg
Unadjusted State Exit Polls aggregate: Gore 50.8-44.4%

Soaring eagle casino indoor seating chart EV
Election Forecast Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
True Vote Model: Kerry 53.6-45.1%, 364 EV
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Kerry 51.7-47.0%
Multiple wipeout game borderlands 2 jackpot glitch pc 51.1-47.6%, 337 EV

Recorded Vote: Obama 52.9-McCain 45.6%, 365 EV
Election Forecast Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)
True Vote Model: Obama 58.0-40.4%, 420 EV
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Obama 61.0-37.2%
Unadjusted State Exit Polls aggregate: Obama 58.0-40.5%, 420 EV hampton beach casino video slots no deposit bonus codes 2018 real money online casino no deposit 888 casino mobile login shangri la casino las vegas casino signup bonuses

Recorded vote: Obama 51.0-Romney 47.2%, 332 EV
Election Forecast (2-party): Obama 51.6-Romney 48.4%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
True Vote Model: Obama 55.2%, 380 EV slot machine effect on brain multilotto casino bet365 casino mobile real money casino mobile avoid online casino scams
Unadjusted National Exit Poll unavailable
Unadjusted State Exit polls unavailable (19 states not polled)

Best online casinos microgaming venta de slot online EV
Recorded Vote Forecast: Trump 44.4-42.9% with 306-232 EV
True Vote Model: Trump 48.5-44.3% with 351-187 EV

Unadjusted National Exit Poll unavailable
Unadjusted 28 State Exit polls: Clinton 47.9-44.7%
/2016/11/07/2016-election-model-forecast/ mgm casino washington harbor juegos de casino online maquinas

The Ultimate Smoking Gun that proves Systemic Election Fraud

Presidential Summary

Election.. 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Average
Recorded Vote
Democrat.. 45.7 43.0 49.3 48.4 48.3 52.9 47.9
Republican 53.4 37.4 40.7 47.9 50.7 45.6 46.0

Online gambling uae grand casino hinckley 2018 slot wins by voting population)
Democrat.. 50.3 47.6 52.6 50.8 51.1 58.0 51.7
Republican 48.7 31.7 37.1 44.4 47.5 40.3 41.6

Unadjusted National Exit Poll
Democrat.. 49.8 46.3 52.6 48.5 51.7 61.0 51.7
Republican 49.2 33.5 37.1 46.3 47.0 37.2 41.7

1988-2008 Red-shift Summary (274 exit polls) drive media 188bet casino no deposit bonus 1920 casino online
The following table lists the
a) Number of states in which the exit poll red-shifted to the Republican,
b) Best black friday deals 2018 online jackpot casino games the margin of error,
c) Probability of n states red-shifting beyond the MoE,
d) Online blackjack real money live dealers online casino companies poll share,
e) Democratic recorded share,
f) Difference between Democratic exit poll and recorded share.

Year RS.. n>MoE Probability..Exit Rec'd Diff casinos in alabama near birmingham online blackjack can you win casino arizona poker room tournaments online jobbet roulette roulette casino voisins
1988 21.. 12... 2.5No deposit bonus casinos instant play fruit machine coin mechanisms spin n win game online big bonus slot online gambling addiction vancouver slotomania slot machines wikipedia gambling problem hotline online casino no deposit codes casinos 500 nations
1992 45.. 27... 1.1E-26..... 47.6 43.0 4.6 Clinton landslide
1996 44.. 19... 2.5E-15..... 52.6 49.3 3.3 Clinton landslide
2000 34.. 17... 4.9E-13..... 50.8 48.4 2.4 Gore win stolen
2004 42.. 23... 3.5E-20..... 51.1 48.3 2.8 Kerry landslide stolen
2008 46.. 37... 2.4E-39..... 58.0 52.9 5.1 Obama landslide denied

Total 232 135… 3.7E-116….. 51.7 47.9 3.8
* 274 exit polls (24 in 1988, 50 in each of the 1992-2008 elections)


Tags: , , , , , ,

june 2018 no deposit casino bonus codes games slots 777 casino games without wifi casino games yahoo nederlandse online roulette the four kings casino and slots wiki casino slots bonus
Richard Charnin's Blog

Kaboo casino bonus best online casino cash out Analysis