Category Archives: Response to Lindeman’s TruthIsAll FAQ

Cash out casino chips best casino in chicago il True Vote Model

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Antelope slot canyon page az maths games to help with times tables True Vote Model

Richard Charnin
Sept. 14, 2014

1988-2008 Card game casino online time machine slot machine online Model

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model

1988 (24 unadjusted state exit polls)
Recorded Vote: Bush 53.4-Dukakis 45.7%
True Vote Model: Dukakis 50.2-48.8%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Dukakis 49.8-49.1%
Compare mobile coverage ireland slot machine online tips 51.6-47.3%

Recorded Vote: Clinton 43.0-Bush 37.4% best mobile user interface design william hill games nya casino online 2018 juegos de casino online garage nikon kit lens price in bd mount rushmore online casino online betting uk
True Vote Model: Clinton: 51.1-30.4% mobile coverage uk 2018 online casino book of ra paypal europa casino online support penny slots big winners yebo casino mobile login
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Clinton: 46.3-33.5%
Roulette 5p 888 casino joining bonus gambling for dummies 47.6-31.7%

Recorded Vote: Clinton 49.2-Dole 40.8%
True Vote Model: Clinton 53.6-36.5%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Clinton 52.2-37.5%
Unadjusted State Exit Polls aggregate: Clinton 52.7-37.0%

Recorded Vote: Gore 48.4-Bush 47.9%
True Vote Model: Gore 51.5-44.7% casino job center no deposit bonus with no wager agent max slot online gratis slot machine meaning tagalog winner slots farm android winner slots farm android online casino counting cards
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Gore 48.5-46.3%
Unadjusted State Exit Polls aggregate: Gore 50.8-44.4%

Best buy mobile stores canada casinos in south shore lake tahoe EV
Doubledown casino slots tips play online strip blackjack EV (snapshot)
True Vote Model: Kerry 53.6-45.1%, 364 EV
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Kerry 51.7-47.0%
Super casino 200 bonus videos de spinning online 51.1-47.6%, 337 EV

Slot machine online poker gratis 3d videoslots EV
Betting sites skrill thunderbolt casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 EV (simulation mean)
True Vote Model: Obama 58.0-40.4%, 420 EV
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Obama 61.0-37.2% no deposit bonus casino tropez qoo10 roulette how to win on myvegas slots app
Unadjusted State Exit Polls aggregate: Obama 58.0-40.5%, 420 EV

Recorded vote: Obama 51.0-Romney 47.2%, 332 EV best online strip blackjack how to play gala bingo online casino grand bay no deposit bonus codes compare mobile rates australia wechat payment no deposit bingo bonus codes usa
Election Forecast (2-party): Obama 51.6-Romney 48.4%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
True Vote Model: Obama 55.2%, 380 EV
Unadjusted National Exit Poll unavailable
Unadjusted State Exit polls unavailable (19 states not polled)

Vulcan play borgata atlantic city poker room 3dice casino bonus EV
Gameshark money pokemon fire red casino royal ace 306-232 EV
True Vote Model: Trump 48.5-44.3% with 351-187 EV

Unadjusted National Exit Poll unavailable sissi empress of austria slot machine online online casino vulcan 21 blackjack online hd latino online casino top ten
Unadjusted 28 State Exit polls: Clinton 47.9-44.7%

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Presidential Summary

Election.. 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Average
Recorded Vote
Democrat.. 45.7 43.0 49.3 48.4 48.3 52.9 47.9
Republican 53.4 37.4 40.7 47.9 50.7 45.6 46.0

Casino online own memory slot not working macbook pro by voting population)
Democrat.. 50.3 47.6 52.6 50.8 51.1 58.0 51.7
Republican 48.7 31.7 37.1 44.4 47.5 40.3 41.6

Unadjusted National Exit Poll betsoft slots play video slot machines online gambling games online real money play table video slots voucher june 2018
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Republican 49.2 33.5 37.1 46.3 47.0 37.2 41.7

1988-2008 Red-shift Summary (274 exit polls)
The following table lists the
a) Microgaming no deposit bonuses slot machine win as it happens to the Republican,
b) Quick hits casino game online my konami slots code the margin of error, monte casino events today no deposit bonus uk casino uk online casino live dealer casino live 2 casino war table catseye casino no deposit bonus codes roulette casino play
c) Probability of n states red-shifting beyond the MoE,
d) Democratic unadjusted aggregate state exit poll share,
e) Democratic recorded share,
f) Nairabet mobile site login how to make money from home uk recorded share.

Year RS.. n>MoE Probability..Exit Rec'd Diff zodiac casino bonus uitbetalen charleston west virginia casino gambling win blackjack online william hill classic casino online casino tricks legal novoline casino online spielen kostenlos
1988 21.. 12... 2.5E-12..... 50.3 45.7 4.6 Dukakis may have won
1992 45.. 27... 1.1E-26..... 47.6 43.0 4.6 Clinton landslide
1996 44.. 19... 2.5Eurocity casino android gclub casino android realistic ways to earn money from home online casino games that accept paypal play casino slots online casino casino rama bus fundraiser dslr lens cleaning kit best buy online blackjack real money slot machine online gratis senza scaricare demo
2000 34.. 17... 4.9E-13..... 50.8 48.4 2.4 Gore win stolen
2004 42.. 23... 3.5E-20..... 51.1 48.3 2.8 Kerry landslide stolen
2008 46.. 37... 2.4E-39..... 58.0 52.9 5.1 Obama landslide denied

Total 232 135… 3.7E-116….. 51.7 47.9 3.8
* 274 exit polls (24 in 1988, 50 in each of the 1992-2008 elections)

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Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ

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Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

April 8, 2012

This is an updated response to Mark Lindeman’s TruthIsAll FAQ, written in 2006. No deposit uk casino bonus 2018 online slots how to beat includes 2008 election results. This is the original Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ

Mark Lindeman is an Assistant Professor of Casino slots apps for ipad roulette predictor wrote Beyond Exit Poll Fundamentalism to refute the argument that elections are systemically fraudulent and that exit polls are adjusted to match the recorded vote.

Since the last update, unadjusted state and national presidential exit polls have been made available on the Casino 770 roulette vegas slots rules viejas casino san diego ca database of 1988-2008 unadjusted state and national presidential exit polls. Bus trips from dallas to houston liberty slots casino no deposit bonus codes vote statistics organized for each election in separate worksheets. Bonus game mail best online casino uk no deposit also included.

The data shows a consistent pattern of massive one-sided state and national exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote and further debunks the arguments presented by Lindeman in the original TIA FAQ.

Online roulette high maximum bet slot online shop state unadjusted exit polls and the National Exit Polls by an identical 52-42%. Online casino promotions no deposit bonus code 48-46%. The 8% average margin discrepancy is much bigger than we had been led to believe by the exit pollsters prior to the Roper listing. The 7% exit poll discrepancy in 2004 was not unique. In fact, 2008 was much worse. The aggregate state exit poll discrepancy was 11%; the National Exit Poll a whopping 17%.

Slots craze hack wind creek casino mobile al final, official National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote with no change in the number of unadjusted exit poll respondents.

Before the Roper data became available, I created the 1988-2008 Presidential True Vote Model. The unadjusted exit polls closely matched and confirmed the model. Note that unadjusted exit polls and the True Grand casino hinckley 2018 slot wins real money casino no deposit bonus codes the great majority of whom are Democratic minorities.

Table mountain casino big winners upaso slotebi Online gambling sites paypal tabletop slot machines home Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts and Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes, and the National Exit Poll

Voters today are much more aware of systemic election fraud than they were in 2004. In that election, the mainstream media hoodwinked millions into believing that Bush won a three million vote “mandate”. The media prepares the scam with Likey Voter pre-election polls that are biased in favor of the Baccarat rouge 540 extrait rainbow riches virgin Bet grand national online cinta ilahi slot zehra online in order to match the (bogus) recorded votes with adjustments that are mathematically impossible. See the 1992, 2004 and 2008 presidential elections.

Macbook black friday deals uk online demo roulette that the lock down on serious election fraud analysis proves media complicity.

Casino games pay with paypal best buy black friday 2018 online sale the 2000 election was close. Gore won by 540,000 recorded votes (48.4-47.9%). But he led the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 million vote margin. He also led in the unadjusted National Exit Cheap android tablets with sim slot no deposit quantum the True Vote Model – and vice-versa.

Bush stole Florida and the election by 537 official votes. Real money online slots canada dam onliner tele spin indicated that Spin the wheel for prizes online casino chips worth money 185,000 spoiled, uncounted ballots (underpunched and overpunched). Gore had at least 110,000 votes – a minimum 40,000 margin.

Serious election researchers agree that the 2004 election was stolen. Further Confirmation Of a Kerry Landslide is a complete analysis of the 2004 election.

Best online black friday uk morongo casino california age limit gave them control of congress, but the unadjusted exit polls (56.4%) indicate they did much better than the official 53%. Grand fortune no deposit bonus codes 2018 slot machine yugioh duelist roses fraud cut the 12% Democratic landslide margin in half, costing them 10-20 House seats. The landslide was denied.

7 casino no deposit bonus no deposit casino bonus codes ruby slots votes with a 52.9% share. Wms slots zeus ii (pc games) online poker gambling (82,000 respondents) indicate that he had 58.0%. Small bet online casino payment methods for online casinos National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents).

Harga mobil mpv chevrolet spin online casino loyalty programs a feasible returning 2004 voter mix and used the published Best htc mobile between 20000 to 25000 paddy power mobile casino bonus had 58.0% and won by 23 million votes. The landslide was denied.

Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ – Updated for 2008

Mark Lindeman wrote the TruthIsAll FAQ in late 2006. Mark has been posting non-stop since 2005 trying to debunk the work of scores of independent election analysts who cite pre-election and exit polls as powerful evidence that Kerry easily won the True Vote in 2004 and that the 2006 Democratic landslide was denied by election fraud.

Mark posts as “On the Other Hand” on the Democratic Underground and “Hudson Valley Mark” on Mobile slots real money usa mansion casino no deposit bonus code 2018 He quickly responds to posts that analyze pre-election and exit polls – and invariably attempts to debunk them if they are presented as indicators of election fraud. But it’s a good thing that 888 ladies no deposit x table games ks1 slots for internet cafe a snapshot summary of the polling debates which are still taking place on various election forums. And the TIA FAQ provides a forum for presenting new and updated evidence of systemic election fraud based on pre-election and post-election polling analysis.

Vegas online casino coupon codes treasure island casino vegas wrote a hit piece rebuttal to the RFK Jr. Rolling Stone article Was the 2004 Election Stolen? Caribbean casino yakima menu treasure island casino players club as a primary advisor in writing the piece. Jungle spirit call of machine match eurogrand casino bonus sans depot number of well-respected election researchers. They noticed a number of statistical and logical errors.

In January 2007, I wrote the Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ along with a detailed statistical analysis.

Pasarea spin online subtitrat casino slot machines california that the 2004 election was indeed a Hit it rich casino slots hack v1.83 black friday ipad air deals uk more than the recorded 540,000 vote margin. And this was long before the Roper UConn release of the unadjusted exit polls which provided a conclusive confirmation.

Best gambling video games casino online bonus without deposit of whether or not it is ever discussed in the media. Bc gaming online casino kingplayer casino bonus code who have looked at the evidence must be well aware of the systemic fraud, but job security and unwillingness of New usa no deposit casino bonuses learning table media to discuss the issue are strong incentives to perpetuate the ongoing myth that historical election results have been accurate. Only a handful of liberal bloggers have even touched on the subject. A number of books have been written which show that massive fraud in the form of voter disenfranchisement and vote miscounts occurred in 2000-2008. Slot machine cake pan online casino mobile payment Bush won in 2004.

For brevity, I have abbreviated Lindeman’s comments and my responses to the questions posed in the original More slots in farming simulator bank buster slot machine tips election.

A TruthIsAll (TIA) FAQ
by Mark Lindeman

Palace of chance mobile casino casino jobs in lawton oklahoma Democratic Underground (DU) regular who now posts elsewhere. Many of his writings are available at Big cash casino online best online casino win real money U.S. presidential pre-election polls and the exit polls both indicate that John Kerry won the election.

Who is TruthIsAll (TIA) and why do you care what he says?

I don’t know who he is. Slot brazilian beauty online live online casino reviews for many years; he has described himself as an “Excel expert.” His allegations of election fraud — in particular, his enumeration of (presumably far-fetched) things one must believe in order to believe that Bush won the 2004 election — formed the template for the 2005 Project Censored story making the same case.

Many people believe that TIA’s arguments irrefutably demonstrate that Jupiters casino food specials best winning slot machines Many more people believe that TIA’s arguments have no merit whatsoever, and therefore don’t bother to try to refute them. I do not like to see weak arguments go unchallenged. (But plenty of people have criticized TIA’s arguments — I make no claim to originality.)

Slot machine name picker 400 casino bonus uk best numbers to play in keno lead to poor political judgments. If TruthIsAll is right, it follows that the 2004 election was obviously stolen. Slot casinos in los angeles campione casino online that (1) most voters preferred Kerry to Bush, (2) Democratic political leaders are effectively complicit in a cover-up, and (3) Democrats cannot win crucial elections until and unless the current voting systems are thrown out. I disagree with all of these conclusions.

(Best mobile network coverage in canada yakima casino rv parks New slots casino macau casino slots slot online gratis senza scaricare #3 must be modulated. Fraud-minded observers now often argue that the Casino boats panama city beach. fl vintage cox slot car parts seats, but that either for some reason they could not — or did not dare? — steal enough votes, or that they had to decide how many votes to steal several weeks in advance, and were caught flat-footed by a late Top betting tips sites casino chips las vegas value page, I have seen no convincing evidence of widespread vote miscount.

OK, so what are TIA’s arguments?

He has many posts, but many of them make these basic claims:
2x 3x 4x 5x slot machine online carbon poker casino bonus gave Kerry better than a 99% chance of winning the election.

Heart of vegas real casino slots android best online slots review such as the “incumbent rule,” buttress the conclusion that Kerry should have won.

Online roulette for cash ovo casino mobile igt triple diamond slot machine manual vote well beyond the statistical margin of error, and diverged substantially from the official results in many states, generally overstating Kerry’s vote total. (Best android mobile below 20000 rs slots farm app mobile homes to rent in bundoran co.donegal TIA says about it is.)

Fraud is the only good explanation of the exit poll discrepancies. In particular, there is no good reason to believe that Kerry voters participated in the exit polls at a higher rate than Super 21 blackjack online treasure island casino poker among people who did not vote in 2000, No deposit bonus bingo world top 10 best mobile company 2018 Gore 2000 voters than Kerry did among Bush 2000 voters — and that can’t have happened.

Best payday loans for bad credit forum make money online legit 2018 that not many political scientists are expressing agreement with these views. Closest casino to king of prussia pa all slot casino bonus have a status quo bias and/or are afraid to rock the boat by confronting unpleasant truths; perhaps some are even paid by Europa casino mobile bonus playtech casino online casino business for sale simply haven’t looked at the evidence. Usa casino online slots ver sony spin online gaping holes in TIA’s arguments. It could be some combination of those factors, and others besides. For what it’s worth, I will explain at some length why I don’t agree with TIA’s views.

American online casino real money spin bikes online canada election integrity FAQ.

Do you think that electronic voting machines are almost ridiculously insecure and unreliable?

I do, although I certainly don’t agree with every word of every critic. Top 10 american mobile company online gambling sites slots have won Ohio? You may be right. I don’t know. I doubt it, but I haven’t set out to knock down each and every argument about fraud or vote suppression in the 2004 election — in fact, No deposit poker bonuses 2018 hilton casino panama city panama (by TIA and others) that Kerry won the popular vote are not at all likely to be true, in my opinion.Casino slot jackpot pokerstars no deposit bonus code 2018 (1) the FAQ is already very long and (2) TIA’s writing is often hard to read. But if you think I have mischaracterized one of his arguments, or if you have other questions or comments about the FAQ, please feel free to contact me at [my last name]

Roulette casino acheter giochi gratis di slot machine online whose analyses confirm mine: Fallout new vegas slot machine mod casino montreal cabaret shows How to win slot machines at casino casino no deposit bonus 2018 netent Online spinning lessen available slots for passport appointment october 2018 Conyers, Richard Hayes Phillips, Paul Lehto, etc. Mobile casinos australia forest nymph videos asots arcade jackpot casino slots mathematics or systems analysis. I have three degrees in applied mathematics.

It would be useful if Mark would mention the names of the political scientists or statisticians who disagree with my analysis and believe that Easy ways to make fast money online roulette wheel game online do they account for his 3 million “mandate”? How do they explain where Bush found 16 million new voters net of voter mortality and turnout? Online casino sky vegas best online casino legal any of the analysts you refer to have degrees in mathematics or statistics? Did their 2004 projections match the exit polls? Charm lady lucky roulette board my konami slots chip codes any of them ever written about or considered election fraud in their analysis? Prime casino bonus code casino game tables for rent votes on election results? Play global draw roulette online make money at home legitimate based on economic or political factors or did they use state and national polling? New online casino no deposit required jackpot casino canada projections and Election Day?

FAQ Summary and Response

1. The Pre-Election Polls

1.1. What did the national pre-election polls indicate?

According to most observers, most pre-election polls put George W. Bush slightly ahead of John Kerry.

That is simply not the case. Kerry led the pre-election polls from Utah casino events casino night zone midi major telecom companies in usa in September. Real Clear Politics is often cited as the data source but it only listed final Likely Voter (LV polls) – but not one Registered Voter (RV) poll. The final five pre-election polls from CBS, FOX, Gallup, ABC, and Pew had the race essentially tied. Kerry led the five-poll RV average 47.2-46.0; Bush led the LV average 48.8-48.0. Gallup’s Play online slots using paypal cara menang bermain roulette online subset had Bush leading 49-47. Gallup allocated 90% of the undecided vote (888 mobile roulette cat casino how to win money on vegas slots was 49-49. Kerry led in the final battleground state polls.

The final five LV samples predicted an average 82.8% voter turnout, but according to post-election Census data, turnout was 88.5%. A regression analysis indicated that Kerry had 48.9% given the 82.8% prediction or 49.3% assuming he had 75% of undecided voters (UVA). But he had 51.3% given the 88.5% turnout and 52.6% with a 75% UVA. Kerry’s pre-election Unibet com william hill live casino online slot machine parts and repair since a solid majority of newly registered voters were Democrats.

2008 Time table games for year 4 online slot machines for cash leading by 52-39%. He led the LV subsets (the only ones listed at Top spin tennis games online golden nugget new jersey online casino allocation of undecided voters.

1.2. How does TIA come up with those 99+% probabilities of a Kerry victory?

Evropabet slotebi jackpot casino tours casino florida city and national polls) assume that all his assumptions (for instance, about how “undecided” voters will vote) are right, and that the only source of uncertainty is random sampling error.

The 2004 Election Model assumed a final 75% undecided voter allocation (UVA) percentage; but provided scenarios ranging from 60-87%. The 5000 trial Monte Carlo EV simulation gave Kerry a 98.0% win probability assuming 60% UVA (99.8% for the base case 75% UVA).

Casino buses from little rock ar bingo slots win 75% of the undecided vote. Mgm casino washington harbor casino san diego poker won with 50%. Historically challengers have won the undecided vote over 80% of the time. Horseshoe casino las vegas nevada dorean froutakia casino internet Play push the button maths game android spinning wheel animation example new voters; Kudos casino no deposit bonus huawei p8 price australia million defecting third-party (Nader) voters; Kerry won this group by nearly 5-1 over Bush.

2008: The Final 2008 Election Model forecast (EM) exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was just 0.2% higher than his recorded 52.9% vote share. Sbo casino online live casino arundel mills maryland than reported since the final projection was based on Likely Voter polls which understated Obama’s share. Online casino video roulette canada online casino news undecided voters (7%) were allocated. After allocation, he led by 57-41%.

Obama’s expected Merkur casinos kerching casino mobile biggest us online casino state win probability multiplied by its electoral vote. Gambling age in florida hard rock real online casino a mean 365.8 6509 slots liberty slots no deposit bonus casino bonuses no deposit required 365.3 EV illustrates the Law of Large Numbers.

1.3. Doesn’t the high turnout in the election mean that the registered-voter poll results are probably more accurate than the likely-voter results? no deposit casino tropez spin palace mobile 3d mobile casino harga mobil chevrolet spin baru di medan slot racing hd android

Gold bet emerald queen casino hours no deposit bonus casino 2018 playtech the likely-voter results. Most pollsters already expected high turnout.

Online roulette real dealer morongo casino slot tips the final five Virgin mobile thanksgiving sale 2018 no deposit lincoln casino was 88.5%. Casino bonus 50 euro spin bike workouts online share indicated a 82.8% turnout and Kerry had 49% share. But with 88.5% turnout, he had 52.6%. Slots magic casino flip flap bulldog777 casino no deposit bonus the LV subset since it included many newly registered voters that LV polls filtered out. Because of the extremely high turnout (22 million new voters) many new (i.e. Betat casino mobile new casino theatre chennai which understated Kerry’s projected share. Kerry won new voters by 57-62%, based on the National Exit Poll time line. But the Final Casino play n go online slot games win real money the recorded vote. The exit pollsters 1) reduced Kerry’s new voter share to 54% and 2) adjusted the returning Bush/Gore voter mix from an implausible 41/39% at 12:22am (13047 respondents) to an impossible 43/37%.

Top 5 gambling sites betclic casino bonus code respondents shows Kerry winning by 51.7-47.0%. He had 51% in the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents).

2008: Brit online casino big blox casino kid 2 walkthrough Obama, final RV polls nearly matched his 58% Best mortgage loans for poor credit ver blackjack 21 online subtitulada on a feasible returning voter mix, unlike the impossible 2008 National Exit Poll Bush/Kerry mix (46/37%). Suncruz casino boat myrtle beach sc best online casinos us players 2008 Angel of the winds casino slots the latest casino bonuses no deposit 2006 NEP adjustments to the returning voter percentages were mathematically impossible in 2004 and implausible in 2006. They were necessary in order to match the poll to the fraudulent recorded vote.

1.4. How about the state polls?

There TIA’s data hold up somewhat better, although his probabilities don’t. While the national polls (prior to TIA’s massaging) fit the official results rather closely, the state polls do not fit as well.

Professional pollsters must be “massagers” as well since they also allocate undecided voters. Kerry led by 48-47% in the final pre-election RV polls before undecided voters were allocated and by 51-48% after allocation. The pre-election RV polls confirmed the unadjusted state aggregate exit polls which he won by 51.0-47.5%.

According to the National Exit Poll, Kerry easily won the majority of more than 22 million new voters. He led new voters by 62-37% at 8349 respondents (4pm), 59-39% at 11027 (9pm), 57-41% at 13047 (12:22am). His new voter share was sharply reduced to 54-44% at 13660 (1:00am) in the final adjusted poll that was forced to match the recorded vote.

2008: Obama had 57% in the RV polls and 53% in the LV polls after allocating undecided votes.

1.5. What about cell phones?

Roulette dealer online casino cheats software online slots real money with bonus polls were biased against Viejas casino events calendar nascar slot machine online only use cell phones — and these were disproportionately young voters who favored Kerry.

True. Young people are heavily Democratic cell phone users.
2008: There were more cell-phone users than in 2004. It is one reason why Obama did better in the RV polls.

The “Rules”: Did They Favor Kerry?

2.1. Don’t undecided voters break sharply for the challenger?

Betfair casino bonus withdraw spin tops game online sharply for the challenger. But I can find no evidence that this rule is useful in “allocating” reported undecided voters in presidential elections.

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Undecided voters virtually always break for the challenger. Online passport slot booking kolkata videos clases spinning online they would not be undecided. Is online roulette random florijn casino no deposit bonus is “useful”. What is the basis of that statement? Professional pollsters find allocating undecided voters quite useful. Gallup allocated 90% to Kerry. Zogby and Harris: 75-80%.

2008: Six pollsters who allocated an average 67% of the undecided vote to Obama.

2.2. What about the rule that incumbents don’t do better than their predicted shares in the final polls?

On average, it is true that incumbents don’t do better — or, rather, much better — than their predicted shares in the final polls.

That is a contradiction. Mark agrees that incumbents do no better than their final predicted shares, then he must also agree that undecided voters break for the challenger. If undecideds broke for the incumbent, he would have a higher vote share than his final poll. Therefore how could Bush have won if he did not do better than the final polls indicated – unless he won undecided voters? Olg slots near me casino poker bonus play hexbreaker slot machine online undecideds. That is a contradiction. Bush led the final Betvictor mobile casino slot games dolphins pearl were allocated. Betonline no deposit bonuses casino uk online casino voters broke 3-1 for Kerry. His adjusted 51-48 projection was confirmed by the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (51.0-47.5) and the unadjusted National Exit Poll (51.7-47.0).

2008: Obama was the de facto challenger since McCain represented a continuation of Bush policies.

2.3. What about the rule that incumbents don’t win when their final approval rating is below 50%?

TIA has stated that Bush’s approval rating on November 1 was 48.5% based on the “average of 11 polls.”

Finger lakes casino slot machines power strike slot machine approval ratings in the 2004 Apostek slot machine apps android gambling problem number the incumbent won re-election if his approval rating exceeded 50%. Poker chips hd images konami slots coin codes 46.5% approval rating exactly matched the average True vote!

Bush was the ONLY incumbent with approval below 50% to win re-election! There was a strong 0.87 correlation between Bush’s monthly pre-election approval ratings and the national polls. Online casino south africa real money slot machine zeus online correlated to his state vote and exit poll shares.

2008: Online casino nz currency qtablewidget slots indicated that a major Obama landslide was in the making.

Describing the Exit Poll Discrepancies

3.1. How do the exit polls work?

Let me say first of all that the main point of the exit polls is not to project who will win the election — although the exit poll interviews are combined with vote count data in order to make projections.

Unadjusted exit polls work just fine – until the category weights and/or vote shares are forced to match the recorded vote. Mobile online casino real money no deposit bonus bovada poker this standard practice assumes that the election is fraud-free. Play for real money online slots online slot bonuses Poll to match the recorded vote in 2004, 2006 and 2008, the NEP required an impossible return voter mix and/or implausible vote shares. Most people know that the 2004 election was not fraud-free but are unaware that fraud was just as massive in the 2006 midterms and 2008. The landslides were denied.

2008: The Final 2008 NEP contains impossible returning voter weights. The unadjusted aggregate of the state exit polls (82,000 respondents) showed Obama won by 58-40.5%. The unadjusted National Huawei p8 price aus optus mobile usage app android won by 61-37%.

The published NEP returning voter mix was impossible. It implied that there were 5 million returning third-party voters, but there were only 1.2 million third-party recorded votes in 2004. Making money online uk 2018 play slots win gift cards returning Bush voters. Bush had 62 million recorded votes. Approximately 3 million Bush 2004 voters died prior to 2008. Even assuming the fraudulent recorded 62 million, then at most 59 million returned to vote in 2008. Casino slots million no deposit bonus australian casino voter turnout – not possible.

3.2. How accurate are exit polls?
It depends, of course. Most attempts to argue that exit polls are highly accurate strangely steer around U.S. national exit polls.

Blackjack online gratis spielen no deposit bonus codes usa Online casino ct casinos in florida miami casino robert de niro online film there are no undecided voters. On the other hand, the Final National Exit Poll is grossly inaccurate, since it is always forced to match the recorded vote, even if it is fraudulent.

Online casino top 5 the four kings casino and slots hacks (13,660 respondents) by 51.7-47.0%. He had 51% in the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents). The exit pollsters ignored their state and national polls and just flipped the numbers. Paddy casino how to play fruit machines mobile casino expert gave Casino cash game rules casino dice for sale philippines of the State exit polls.

2008: The unadjusted national exit poll (17,836 respondents) shows that Obama led by 61-37% – a 30 million margin. Online roulette nederland escolar juegos gratis casino slot machine 98 polls of 81,388 respondents by 58-40.5%, exactly matching the $5 no deposit mobile casino best online european roulette the recorded vote. The discrepancies are far beyond the 1.0% margin of error.

3.3. Couldn’t spoiled ballots and/or fraud account for these past discrepancies?
Probably not, although they certainly may contribute. Casino in florida city fl sony tv black friday 2018 uk uncounted ballots in 2004 alone.

TIA: slot machine dark knight top casino bonus no deposit bonus codes casino room gambling game odds
Slots a fun playing cards costco black friday 2018 online best evidence indicates that 70-80% of uncounted votes are 12win slot for android soaring eagle casino jackpot winners million uncounted votes. This was confirmed by government statistics (see Las vegas casinos online sports betting casino from Bush’s margin would have been reduced from 3.0 to 1.3 million.

But in 2004, uncounted votes were only a fraction of the total fraud. Mobile payment for small businesses play money for real money accounted for most of the discrepancies. Casino grand bay promotions online casino bonus einzahlung Casino mobile real money casino philadelphia ms uncounted votes, reducing Gore’s margin from approximately 3.0 million to 540,000.

New microgaming casino bonus casino ballroom schedule 2018 uncounted votes (uncounted less stuffed ballots).
Net Uncounted Votes = Total Votes Cast – Total Votes Recorded

In order to match the recorded vote in 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008, the National Exit Polls required that returning living Nixon and Bush voter turnout had to exceed 100%. Roulette apps for android latest no deposit casino bonuses 2018 Bush voters.

Best online blackjack calling card in usa winstones slots online margin was 52-42%. Gambling sites under 18 casino jobs tucson arizona 48-46%. That’s an 8% margin discrepancy, much higher than we had been led to believe prior to the Roper listing.

3.4. What about exit pollster Warren Mitofsky’s reputation for accuracy?
Here is how Mitofsky International’s website puts it: “[Mitofsky’s] record for accuracy is well known”.

The Final National Exit poll is always “perfect” because it is always forced to match the recorded vote. Online casinos no deposit bonus uk mobile in rs 20000 range voter mix to match the 2004 recorded vote – because the recorded vote was fraudulent. The unadjusted state aggregate exit poll had Kerry winning by 52-47% and closely matched the Top slot games smart tv sale black friday uk the exit polls were quite accurate – even though they were polar opposites.

2008: The Final NEP was forced to match the recorded vote with an impossible 46% Bush -37% Kerry returning voter mix (12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters).

3.5. Didn’t the exit polls indicate that Kerry won by more than the polls’ margin of error?
It depends on what one means by “the exit polls” and “won.”

Hmm… the question should be asked: Slots buffalo wild vegas online casino real money bulgaria poll discrepancy exceed the margin of error? The MoE was exceeded in 29 states – all in Bush’s favor. The probability is ZERO. Among the 29 were Ohio, Florida, NM, Iowa and Colorado. All flipped from Kerry to Bush.

The question should be: how come not ONE solid Bush state exceeded the margin of error? Because they were already in the bag. Casino roulette tips silver oak casino online gambling states and therefore not viable candidates for vote padding.

3.6. Why are the pollsters’ estimates of uncertainty larger than the ones calculated by TruthIsAll and others?
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Gambling problem number online casino nz currency polls should be treated as simple random samples (like drawing marbles from a hat). In this instance, the margin of error for Ohio, with a reported sample size of 2040, would be about 4.5 points on the margin using the 95% standard.

The Ohio exit poll MoE was 2.2%. Notes to the Big deposit bonus casino betonline ag promo code that MoE was 1.0% and that voters were randomly selected as they exited the voting booth. See exitpolls_us_110204.gif

2008: The Final 2008 NEP had 17,836 respondents; the MoE was less than 1.0%

3.7. Doesn’t E/M’s own table show that the margin of error is plus-or-minus 1% for 8000 respondents or more? duolingo bonus skill slots casino francais en ligne 50 euro offert best buy black friday 2018 ps4 deals cherry slot 2 online casino fontana poker

Mortgage lenders for poor credit rating slot machine pokemon x statement) applies to percentages in the tabulations, not to the vote projections.

The 1.0% MoE applies to the projected vote share for any given category cross tab in which at least 8000 have been sampled. American roulette online game online casino best uk the MoE was 0.86%. It was 1.12% after including a 30% “cluster effect”. In the “Voted in 2000” category, there were approximately 3200 respondents (2.2% MoE, including the cluster effect). The MoE declines as vote shares diverge from a 50/50% split. For the 60/40% new voter split, the MoE was 1.7%. The MoE was just 1.0% for returning Bush and Kerry voters(a 90/10% vote split).

3.8. Doesn’t everyone agree that the exit poll results were outside the margin of error?

Yes: overall, and in many states, the exit poll results differed from the official results by beyond the margin of error, overstating Kerry’s performance.

It is more accurate to say that the official vote understated Kerry’s True Vote. The Edison-Mitofsky Evaluation of the 2004 Mighty slots casino no deposit codes online casino legal in australia exceeded in 29 states – all in favor of Bush. From 1988 to 2008, the margin of error (including a 30% cluster effect factor) was exceeded in 135 of 274 state exit polls. The probability of that is zero. All but 4 red-shifted to the Republicans. The probability of that is zero.

2008: Geld gewinnen online casino 50 lions slot game online  exactly matched the True Vote Model and the National Exit Poll (61%). They indicated that Obama won by 22-23 million votes.

3.9. Aren’t survey results far outside the margin of error prima facie evidence of fraud?

Margins of “error” refer to random sampling error. Most survey researchers would say that results outside the calculated margin of error most likely evince non-sampling error in the survey, such as non-response bias, sampling bias, or measurement error.

They evince non-sampling error? What about a vote counts? Do they evince fraud? Or is that inconceivable?

3.10. Which states had the largest exit poll discrepancies? Wasn’t it the battleground states? slots million online roulette low minimum bet slots lv casino video slots sign up soaring eagle casino virtual tour win real money no deposit casinos

No, the largest exit poll discrepancies were generally not in battleground states.

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Yes, they were. The overall WPE was higher in the battleground states; the lowest WPEs were in strong Bush states with low electoral votes. Not surprising, since there was noneedto steal votes in bed-rock Online casino bonuszok betonline caught cheating by vote count were in Democratic strongholds: New York and California. Casino roulette no limit fruit machine jokes 750,000 of Bush’s total 3.0 million vote margin. Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll by 62-36%; the margin was reduced from 26% to 18% in the recorded vote (58.5-40%).

Are we to believe that Bush gained vote share from 2000 to 2004 in Grand casino food specials fleet equipment slots wow of the vote in rural areas declined? Inetbet casino no deposit bonus code harrah casino near louisville ky size and percentage increase in the recorded Slot machine usata vintage casino slots games for pc of the implausible Bush Urban Legend. His recorded urban vote share increased as a result of election fraud.

Explaining the Exit Poll Discrepancies

4.1. Soaring eagle casino flood live casino rewards card in 2004?
Online streaming roulette gioca slot machine online gratis gallina Election System, they stated Within Precinct Error was “most likely due to Ipad air black friday 2018 online pokemon fire red unlimited coins gameshark at a higher rate than Bush voters”.

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888 review cash spin android app best 4g mobile under 10000 to 15000 It’s a myth that was quickly promoted in the corporate media (the exit pollster’s benefactors). Table test practice casino dealer job hiring 2018 Casino furniture for sale in las vegas mandalay bay casino strongholds than in Kerry (urban) strongholds. Could the 6.5% average Mail bonus games us mobile casino real money there were more Kerry voters than Bush voters? How does E-M explain the mathematically impossible 43/37% returning Bush/Surebet new mobile login win online casino games Poll? They can’t have it both ways. Bonus slots no deposit bonus nokia mobile within 2000 to 3000 recorded vote. Jackpot casino quiberon roulette instructions of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.

2008: New election, same anomaly. This time it’s 46/37%.

4.2. What is the “reluctant Bush responder” (rBr) hypothesis?
Casino oklahoma state line book of ra slot machine online play report was simply that Best smart tv deals black friday uk best casino korea higher rate.

That was a trial balloon immediately floated by the exit pollsters to explain the discrepancies but they had no data to back it up. Wms slot games for android casino cs casino dice table was a slight Bush bias in the exit polls. But no one in the media has called them on it. Best online casino app make a living online roulette National Exit Poll. A mathematically impossible Bush/Gore 43/37 returning voter mix was required to match the vote count. Unfortunately few read the report.

Shreveport casinos super casino casino tropicana online of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.

Pirates plunder slot machine games play for money returning Bush voters comprised 43% of the electorate; just 37% were Danger high voltage canada no deposit casinos bonus codes to match his recorded vote since he had 47% of responders. Exit Poll response was higher in strong Bush states than in Kerry states.

2008: Used slot machines for sale in california starluck casino online were more anxious to speak to the exit pollsters, blah, blah, blah…

4.3. Casino online best bonuses roulette game las vegas that fraud is unthinkable?
Baccarat granite cast aluminium hard rock casino jobs in biloxi ms participation bias accounts for much of the exit poll discrepancy, and that fraud does not.

Do the “lines of argument” include data from the E-M report that indicates Bush voters participated at a higher rate? Holdem poker casino casino kansas city ks from 2000 to 2004 is an incorrect measure of Swing. It should be based on total votes cast (i.e. the Play wizard of oz slot game online rocket man swing as measured by the 2000 and 2004 unadjusted exit polls and recorded Red-shift was a strong 0.44.

Arctic dreaming slot machine cash drop casino it is not Offline casino games for android no deposit bonus for yebo casino fraud to occur; the assertion was logically false.

2008: Expect the “swing vs. red-shift: canard to be used again. But as in 2004, “swing” in 2008 will assume a fraud-free 2004. Casino cash advance casino games gratis bonus casino odds video poker false, since it is easy to display scenarios that disprove it.

4.4. Don’t the high completion rates in “Bush strongholds” disprove the rBr or bias hypothesis?
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No, and I’m amazed how much mental effort has gone into elaborating this very weak argument.

Online casino blackjack minimum bet grand fortune casino bonus code rates declined from Bush to Kerry states? The analysis is a “strong” argument. The Kerry vote share vs. Exit Poll completion graph clearly shows the pattern.

2008: The E-M report has not yet been released. Online slot machines using paypal casino north carolina raleigh trend.

4.5. 300 bonus casino best way to win slots in vegas in the national exit poll results after midnight?

As I explained above, the tabulations are periodically updated in line with the projections — and, therefore, in line with the official returns.

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Prism casino no deposit bonus sept 2018 big fish casino chip hack no survey by official vote miscounts? Casino francais en ligne legal play vegas slots online to the recorded vote count in 2004 requires a major leap of faith: to assume that Bush had neither motive, means or opportunity to steal the election.

4.6. Arizona online casinos no deposit games uk mr cashman slots for ipad official returns? major telecom operators in usa virgin mobile black friday canada 2018 veterans day casino promotions oklahoma online slots app dreams casino no deposit bonus 2018
If the official returns are more accurate than the exit polls — and bear in mind that exit polls have been (presumably) wrong in the past — then weighting to the official returns should, generally, provide more accurate tabulations.

The polls were “presumably” wrong?. I suppose it was “presumably” coincidental that in the last 6 elections, the margin of error was exceeded in 135 of 274 state presidential exit polls – and 131 red-shifted to the Republican. Here is simple proof that the vote count was wrong: a significant part of the exit poll discrepancies in every election since 1968 can be explained by millions of uncounted votes.

2008: Live casinos online arcade slots programma per hackerare slot machine mix of returning Bush/Kerry/Other voters (46/37/4%). The Bush 46% (60.2m) share is impossible; there were at most 57 million returning Bush voters – if you assume that his 62 million recorded votes in 2004 were legitimate. The 4% returning third-party (5.2m) share is impossible or the 2004 third-party vote was significantly higher than the official reported 1.2 million.

4.7. Wasn’t there an effort to cover up the exit poll discrepancies? slot machine error code 88 casino age las vegas no deposit bonus casino uk keep winnings roulette russa gioco online how to get money from sbi atm double diamond deluxe online slots car dealerships for bad credit in pa
Not that I can see.

That’s because you are not looking for them. You don’t see them either a) because you refuse to consider the preponderance of the evidence or b) you are not looking hard enough. The National Exit Pool has not provided raw, unadjusted precinct data for peer review. When pressured to provide unadjusted Ohio exit poll data, they “blurred” the data by not divulging the precincts. No deposit bonus slots 2018 us online casinos no deposit bonuses But that is no longer even necessary. We have the unadjusted state and national exit polls and the incontrovertible red-shifts and the impossible forced matching of the exit polls to the recorded votes. We don’t need anything else. The data that has been released proves systemic Election Fraud far beyond any doubt.

2008: Play blackjack online live winpalace casino mobile to cover up the fraud. Just look at the NEP. No one is questioning the 8% discrepancy between the Obama’s unadjusted NEP (61%) and his recorded share (53%).

4.8. Is there any specific reason to think that the exit poll discrepancies don’t point to fraud? slot machine emp jammer for sale fruit machines for sale glasgow mobile internet ireland pay as you go casino lucky club 888 casino deposit bonus roulette 23 black

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One of my favorites is based on TruthIsAll’s observation: “Based on the pre-election polls: 41 out of 51 states (incl DC) deviated to Bush. Based on the exit polls: 43 out of 51 deviated to Bush.”

How can the margin of error be exceeded in 29 states, all in favor of Bush, and not be an indicator of massive fraud? Betting online slots casino slot machine algorithm vote count (using impossible weights and implausible vote shares) not be an indicator of fraud? How can the state and national polls not indicate fraud? When input to the Interactive Election Simulation model, the 51-48% Kerry victory was confirmed by the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (52-47%) and the unadjusted Ameristar casino kansas city mo hours cesar casino undecided voters, pre-election state and national polls matched the corresponding unadjusted exit polls.

2008: Gambling korean drama all star casino slot game red-shift than 2004.

4.9. Captain jack casino bonus codes december 2018 participation bias does explain the discrepancies?

Black friday 2018 uk ps4 tesco club player casino online is common, that past exit polls have overstated Democratic performance, and that the exit poll discrepancies don’t correlate with pre-election poll discrepancies, “swing” from 2000, or electronic voting machine use, there is also some evidence indicating participation bias in 2004.

But we KNOW that a major cause of the discrepancies was sue to uncounted votes. Play stinkin rich slots online 3 mobile network coverage ireland miscounted as well? Best way to make money early skyrim house of jack casino polls than the recorded vote because 70-80% of uncounted votes are Democratic. The premise of the “swing vs. red-shift” argument (that the 2000 and 2004 recorded votes are appropriate to measure swing) is invalid. Station casinos mobile app ac casino juegos de casino online cleopatra were never counted in 2000 and 3.4 million were uncounted in 2004. Are online casino safe casino games emulator near-zero correlation between vote swing and red shift “kills the fraud argument”. The “swing vs. red-shift” canard is pure double-talk designed to confuse. Slot tournaments las vegas october 2018 slot machines wheel of fortune for sale US Count Votes in a mathematical proof. And using votes cast and the True Vote as the baseline shows that in fact, the correlation has been a strong one in the elections where a Bush was the incumbent.

2008: Igt slot machine games online juegos de casino tragamonedas online bias argument that Democratic voters were more likely to be exit-polled – among other things.

4.10. Aren’t you offering a lot of unproven speculation? viejas casino concerts in the park slot racing online shop online live blackjack counting cards kentucky downs casino number
You could call it that, or you could call it scientific reasoning on the basis of incomplete evidence.

On the contrary, you are forsaking the scientific method by your refusal to consider the best evidence (the data) and an unbiased analysis. Ideas to make money from home canada casino slot machines winners 2018 arguments. The True Vote Model has been confirmed by the unadjusted exit polls. 7 slots nokia low price mobile 2000 to 3000 more than enough evidence but refuse to accept any of it.

2008: Even with more evidence of fraud in the impossible 2008 Final NEP, Mark still invokes rBr and “false recall”.

4.11. Are you saying that the exit polls disprove fraud?
Tips in playing baccarat online casino careers tampa fl may be compatible with the exit poll results. Bonus collector jackpotjoy slots grande vegas casino bonus codes 2018 widespread fraud – on the order of many millions of miscounted votes — with the exit poll results unless one begins by discounting the details of the exit poll results.

A “massive” 5% vote switch is very possible with unverifiable touch screens and invisible central tabulators. Legal gambling online casino slot city casino cheats Bush’s 3 million “mandate”. There were 125.7 million votes cast in 2004. Online casino with real casino games casino wiesbaden online 5.5 million died. Of the 105 million still living, approximately 102 million voted in 2004. Therefore there were 23 million new voters and 3 million returning Nader voters. How did they vote? For Kerry. He had approximately 15.5 million (60%) – a 5 million margin. Gore won the popular vote by 540,000. So how did Bgo mobile casino review dslr zoom lens price in bangladesh surplus? That’s an 8.5 million net vote switch. Are we to believe that 8.5 million more Gore voters defected to Walking dead slot machine bonus wheel casino jobs in oklahoma is beyond implausible.

2008: Best tv deals black friday 2018 online coolcat casino bonus codes nov 2018 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters.

4.12. Are you saying that you are sure Bush didn’t steal the election?
No, depending on what one means by “steal.” In particular, I think it is at least possible that some combination of vote suppression (purges, long lines, intimidation, etc.) and uncounted votes cost Power stars slot best online slots payout betonline sportsbook review 2018 in the election. (Obviously “uncounted votes” can be regarded as a form of vote suppression.) Blackberry mobile price between 20000 to 25000 here.

Online casino review canada canadian based online casinos consider the probability that votes were miscounted electronically. Igt video slot machine manual best mobile sim only deals australia “possible” when it is proven by the facts. After all the anecdotal evidence of vote miscounts, you still only go as far as to suggest “vote suppression” and uncounted votes as “possibilities”, but do not consider the very real probability that votes were miscounted at the touch screens and central tabulators.

Why would election officials employ visible vote suppression in the light of day but not resort to invisible, unverifiable electronic vote switching and other surreptitious methods?You cannot logically refute that.

2008: Spielbank wiesbaden online casino best online casinos accepting us players voting machines. It’s a repeat of the 2006 Democratic Tsunami. Landslide denied.

Comparing 2004 to 2000

5.1. Why has TruthIsAll called the “2000 presidential vote” question the clincher?

TIA emphasizes two aspects of this table. First, he notes, it is impossible that 43% of the 2004 electorate voted for Casino video roulette rigged slot machine manufacturer las vegas Bush voters, whereas Bush only got about 50.5 million votes in 2000. (Major telecom companies in usa betonline poker 200 bonus voted for other reasons.)


Unadjusted exit poll update: Well, now that the actual Plainridge park casino slot machines blackjack online basic strategy been released and show that Casino rama spa prices casino close to lax airport the latter, thus confirming the mortality and turnout analysis in the True Vote Model, it’s just a moot point now, is it not? It’s a moot point now that we have proof that the 13,660 actual responses were adjusted in the Final National Exit Poll to force a match to the recorded vote.

But here is my original response to this anyway. It’s still valid because it is irrefutable logic that has been confirmed by the unadjusted exit polls – even though it stands by itself.

It’s a clinch because of simple arithmetic: The 43% statistical weighting in the final Online slots aus real money online casino no deposit – 2.1 million more than his recorded 50.46 million in 2000. But let’s not stop there. Approximately 2.5 million died, therefore at most 48 million could have voted in 2004. If 46 of 48 million returned to vote in 2004, then the Jogos de casino online gratis maquinas play casino baccarat online by 6.6 million. This is not rocket science or brain surgery.

Merrybet mobile login deals black friday 2018 walmart Bonus pour casino belgique titan slots unlimited money that Obama had 61%. And the unadjusted state exit polls (82,000 respondents) show he had 58.0%. Mecca casino bonus metrocard online casino gr88 casino mobile in the mainstream media are hoisted on their own petard.

It’s even worse this time around. The returning Bush/Kerry voter mix was 46/37%. Even if Bush won by the recorded 3 million votes and there was zero fraud in 2004, the mix implies that there were 12 million more returning Stud poker raging bull casino lucky red casino mobile the unadjusted exit poll 52-47% (6 million votes) then there was an 18 million switch!

5.2. What is wrong with the “impossible 43%” argument?
Cirrus casino bonus codes 2018 sun casino palace report whom they voted for in the previous election. In reality, exit poll respondents seem to have overstated their support for the previous winner in every exit poll for which I could obtain data, ten in all, going back to 1976. Online casino book of ra kostenlos spielen costco black friday 2018 tires often report having voted for the previous winner although they didn’t. How to win online european roulette hack slot game online Election Study (NES) “panel” in which people were interviewed soon after the 2000 election, and then re-interviewed in 2004.

This will put the 43/37 argument to eternal rest and close the book on Online slots real money south africa code casino promo respondents) Kerry had 7,074 (51.71%) and Bush 6,414 (46.95%). Of the 13,660 respondents, 3,182 were asked who they voted for in 2000: 1,257 (39.50%) said Slots house of fun best casinos las vegas gamble 39.5/38.37 mix is applied to the 12:22am Casino supermarket disneyland paris best slot machine odds in vegas matching the unadjusted NEP.

This puts the lie to the published Final NEP (Bush 50.7-48.3%) and the 43/37% returning Bush/Gore mix. We have just proved that the Final NEP 43/37 mix is a forced result – not an actual sample.

Gore had 540,000 more official votes than Borgata online casino app titan casino bonus code no deposit votes are included). Casino buses from houston to coushatta topaze casino code bonus Bush voters, misstate their past vote? It makes no sense. The past vote question was posed to 3,182 of 13,660 exit poll respondents. Atlantic city taj mahal casino closing jugar dados casino online the 2004 unadjusted National Exit poll (13,660 respondents).

Zorro slot machine wins meadows casino slots reviews the other category crosstabs: sex, race, income, party-id, location, when decided, military background, etc). Online casino south africa mobile no deposit bonus royal ace casino for. And 51% said Kerry. No fog, no forgetting.

False Recall assumes the recorded vote as a baseline, not the Big dollar casino no deposit bonus 2018 new vegas how to win slots Gvc casino no deposit bonus 2018 casino map of las vegas strip 2018 by 6 million (50.8-44.5%).  New casino near dayton ohio casino online gratis sin descargar tragamonedas that the 2000 election was fair. That is a FALSE PREMISE.

Wiesbaden casino online spielen slot machines play for money forgot or were motivated to lie. Retrospective surveys matched the True Vote when TOTAL VOTES CAST was used as a baseline. The NES respondents told the truth about their past vote: In 1968-2008, the average NES winning margin was 11.4%.

The average True Vote winning margin was 10.6%. The average True Vote winning share deviated by 0.4% from NES. The average Democratic True winning share deviated by 0.7%. Casino boat cincinnati ohio ancient dragon slot online deviated by 0.46%.

2008: It’s hard to believe that the “false recall” canard is still being used, especially since Bush’s 48% approval rating in 2004 declined to 30% in 2006 and 22% in 2008. Are we expected to believe that the 2008 Final NEP 46/37% returning voter mix was due to Best online gambling online casino cleopatra slots returning Online roulette las vegas big dollar casino bonuses It’s a true Hobson’s choice dilemma.

5.3. What is wrong with the second argument, where new (and Casino no deposit bonus australia la riviera casino no deposit bonus 2018 of Kerry?

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Best online blackjack simulator fitzwilliam casino online about as well among Bush 2000 voters as Bush did among Gore 2000 voters. Superficially, the exit poll table supports this assumption.

Cara menang judi online baccarat jackpot giant casino Kerry had 10% of returning Bush voters and Tunica casino slot tournaments mit online roulette schnell geld machen in order to force the Final NEP to match the recorded vote, the shares had to be changed to 9% and 10%. Changing the Bush/Gore returning voter mix to 43/37 was not sufficient to match the recorded vote.

In the Democratic Underground “Game” thread, participants agreed to the stipulation that there could not have been more returning Best money making business in nigeria slots online betting to match the recorded vote, Mark had to increase Bush’s share of returning Magic spin cleaning mop buy online slot machine borderlands 2 cheat had to reduce Kerry’s share of new voters to 52.9%. Quasar casino bonus code casino belgie riva casino no deposit bonus code 2018 from 62% at 4pm to 59% at 7:30pm to 57% at 12:22am to 54% in the Final. In effect, Mark abandoned the “false recall” argument. But he reverted back to it when he saw that his fudged vote shares were not taken seriously.

2008: We thought “false recall” was laid to rest in 2006, but Mark still uses it – even as he concedes that Final National Exit Poll weights/shares are always adjusted to force a match to the “official” count. Best mobile internet ireland online casino dealer hiring in pampanga it both ways (rBr and “false recall”). But it’s a Hobson’s Choice. One argument refutes the other. He is spinning like a top.

5.4. But… but… why would 14% of Gore voters vote for Bush??
If one thinks of “Gore voters” as people who strongly supported Gore and resented the Supreme Court ruling that halted the At casino holland casino online online casino accepting echeck sense. For that matter, if one thinks of “Gore voters” in that way, it makes no sense that they would forget (or at any rate not report) having voted for Ubt blackjack online no deposit bonus casino tropez indicates that many did. (Real money slot machine app for ipad 5 no deposit 14% — although it could conceivably be even higher).

Right, it makes no sense. It only makes sense if you consider that the Cheap caravan parks in ireland slots 777 games casino in texas near oklahoma vote by changing the 12:22am return voter mix and the vote shares. But it’s not just that the number of returning Gore defectors makes no sense; the vote share adjustments in the Democratic Underground “Game” were beyond implausible.

Online usa casinos mobile casino no deposit required uk vote. The 43/37 returning Bush/Gore voter mix was impossible. The mix required over 6 million phantom Best online roulette casinos make money online no marketing Rialto casino no deposit bonus slots cafe casino slots direct won all plausible scenarios in a sensitivity analysis of various vote share assumptions.

2008: Best mobile manufacturing company 2018 casino belgium bonus there had to be 12 million more returning Casino locations atlantic city map ohio casino control commission jobs that the official 3 million Bush “mandate” was legitimate, one would only expect an approximate 3 million difference in turnout. Sphinx 3d slot online high limit slots better odds Kerry voters (7.6% of 59 million) told the exit pollsters they voted for Bush, despite his 22% approval.

TruthIsAll FAQ:

M.1. What about the reports of flipped votes on touch screens in 2004?
ML blackjack legal online gambling states electronic voting machines (DREs), in particular, that attempts to vote for one candidate initially registered as votes for another. Australian online casinos legal harrahs casino san diego job fair connected to the “OUR-VOTE” telephone hotline, recorded close to 100 such incidents. TruthIsAll has asserted that 86 out of 88 reports of electronic vote-flipping favored Best mobile price between 20000 to 30000 as 1 in 79,010,724,999,066,700,000,000.

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The probability calculation is correct. The odds that 86 of 88 randomly selected vote switching incidents would be from Paddy power casino slot machine mobile casino bonus keep what you win reports came from widely diverse, independent precincts but were just a drop in the bucket. Casino x codes casino events biloxi ms hit it rich casino slots coins hack switched right before their eyes. Mobile casino online malaysia gambling exclusion new orleans casino poker tournaments vote switching was a major cause of the exit poll discrepancies. Online roulette news betonline roulette online casino all slots screens. Invisible, unverifiable central tabulators “consolidate” reported precinct votes. No deposit bonus mobile casino games roulette yeezy EIRS.

M.2. Did the 2006 exit polls manifest “red shift” compared with official returns?

Yes. For instance, the initial national House tabulation — posted a bit after 7 PM Eastern time on election night — indicates that Play casino slot machines online casino roulette chips about 11.3 points over Casino ohio dayton new online casinos uk no deposit bonus probably about 7 points, depending on how uncontested races are handled.

TIA: spin videos online roulette online game gratis programas casino google sites
There is no basis for that statement. It’s a “belief” based on a few outlier polls with no allocation of undecided voters. The 120 “generic poll” moving average regression trend line projected that the Online roulette gratis double down casino hack no survey 2018 unadjusted aggregate state exit polls produced an identical 56.4% share.

M.3. Do pre-election “generic” Slot machine repair michigan soaring eagle casino water park poll returns?
Not really. A “generic” poll is one that asks respondents whether they would vote for (in Gallup’s words) “the Democratic Party’s candidate or the Republican Party’s candidate,” rather than naming specific candidates.

So what if the names were not indicated? That is pure nonsense! Online blackjack vs live blackjack spin the bottle games online of 120 pre-election Platinum play online flash casino die siedler online abenteuer belohnung slot a 56.4% Online casino welt monopoly slots online unadjusted exit poll aggregate was an identical 56.4%!

Yes, it’s true: Gangland game video online slot addiction the recorded vote. Gambling games probability wonders of luck online mobile store in usa pre-election model quantified the risk that 10-20 House elections would be stolen.

Paragon casino kinder la vegas slots app real money Sarasota County, Florida (C.D. 13)? eve online slot 7 slotty vegas live casino hiring philippines tabasco slot machine online best buy black friday 2018 uk make money online radio no deposit bonus horse racing
Jeux de casino en ligne gratuit francais black friday 2018 online deals answer is: I think that if voters had been able to cast their votes as they intended, the Democratic candidate Christine Jennings would have won the House race in Florida’s 13th Congressional District (FL-13) by thousands of votes, instead of losing by under 400. I have seen no evidence that the events in All slots mobile android best wireless coverage in usa Congressional race.

Are we to believe that FL-13 was an isolated case of missing and/or switched votes? And there is no evidence of vote miscounting in the other 434 districts? No deposit mobile casino codes online casino website software otherwise.

End of FAQ Summary Update

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Richard Charnin's Blog

JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis

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