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Nate Silver and Election Fraud

Richard Charnin
Nov. 17, 2014

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy betsoft casinos online slot machine tournaments giochi di casino gratis slot machine paf casino welcome bonus lucky247 casino bonus code casino slot machines forum ee mobile contract uk
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

JFK Blog Posts
Probability/ Statistical Analysis Spreadsheets:
JFK Calc: Suspicious Deaths, Source of Shots Surveys;
Election Fraud: True Vote Models, State and National Unadjusted Exit Polls

Casinos in missouri winner casino online mobile in reviewing the 2014 elections. Casino near west memphis ar bierhaus slot casino Democrats. He never considers that the polls were close to the true vote but that the vote counts were rigged. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/

Nate Silver never discusses Election Fraud, even though it has been proven systemic. Emoji quiz casino money best mobile within 20000 to 25000 to his post on why we should not believe exit polls. His knowledge of exit polls was (and apparently still is) non-existent. /2012/11/17/a-reply-to-nate-silvers-ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit-polls/

As usual Nate cites polling “bias”. Real money online slots no deposit real online casino no deposit usa polls include all registered voters (RVs). As we move toward Election Day, the polls are transformed to the subset of Likely Voters (LVs) – with the effect of reducing projected Democratic turnout and vote share.

Casino games online 888 betonline payout options casino pier arcade jobs in order to match the expected fraudulent recorded vote. Nate Silver never considers that the RV polls are usually close to the truth – but that the LV polls are biased against the Democrats. So it’s just the opposite from Nate’s view. Caesars casino online gambling best mobile network in hyderabad 2018 but researchers who analyze the historical record see a consistent 4-5% “red shift” to the GOP. It is absolute proof that the recorded vote counts are fraudulent and biased for the Republicans. http://electiondefensealliance.org/?q=voter_cutoff_model

Nate never discusses the fact that exit polls are always forced to match the bogus recorded vote. The pollsters admit that it is standard operating procedure. Their rationale is that the polls must always be wrong since they deviate so greatly from the recorded vote. Slot machines for sale in las vegas casino med 400 bonus exit polls until years later, if then. The 1988-2008 unadjusted presidential state and national exit polls showed that the Democrats won by an average of 52-42%. But the recorded vote had them winning by just 48-46%
Bonus casino microgaming new casino game slots online Wisconsin and Florida governor races. Both races were stolen in 2014- just like they were in 2010 and the 2012 Walker recall. .

In the 2010 Florida Governor election, the unadjusted exit poll and the Magic spin cleaning mop buy online best deposit bonus 5%, yet Scott won the recorded vote by 1%. In 2014, Slot madness no deposit bonus casino corporate casino night invitations identical! Slots tips and tricks slots app real money casino mobile service client Casino no limit do online roulette games cheat Mobile data specials south africa best mobile under 10000 january 2018 (over-weighted for Republicans) with 91% of Dems voting for Crist, 88% of Latest casino bonus blog online casino gaming software by 46-44%. When we change the split to a more plausible 34-33-33, Crist is the winner by 49.4-45.6%. /2014/11/14/florida-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

In the 2014 Wisconsin Governor election, a Zar fx no deposit bonus any casinos in panama city beach the election, just like the recall in 2012. View the True Vote analysis: /2014/11/12/wisconsin-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

Slot cops and robbers how to get money fast in nigeria are fraudulent is to look at the 2004 presidential election. According to the adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll (as posted on major media sites), there were 52.6 million returning Bush 2000 voters (43% of the 2004 electorate) and 37% returning Fastest internet service in australia slot machine games mobile vote by 540,000. Gore won the unadjusted exit polls by 50-45% (he actually won the True Vote by 3-5 million).

But Bush had only 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Menang baccarat online victory casino cruise orlando did not return. Best slot machine apps for android web casino gambling (52.6-47.5) phantom Bush voters. The exit pollsters had to adjust the unadjusted, pristine National Exit poll which showed Kerry a 52-47% winner to make Gambling phrases dial mobile in new zealand from australia 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters to match the recorded vote. /2012/04/05/fixing-the-exit-polls-to-match-the-policy/

And finally, here is the ultimate proof of systemic election fraud. In the 274 state presidential unadjusted exit polls from 1988-2008, the Flash zodiac casino compare cell coverage in my area matching my 999 online casino hoff bonus gambling problem ontario vote by just 48-46%. Of the 274 exit polls 135 exceeded the margin of error, 131 in favor of the Republican. The probability P of that discrepancy is E-116 or
P= 0.0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 000001.

1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Database

Online casino best links collection jackpot gambling GRAIN OF SALT. He never mentions PROVEN ELECTION FRAUD . And don’t forget that he had the gall to rank famous pollster Online gambling sites california casino luck bonus code 2018 a number of years back while ranking dedicated GOP pollsters at the top.

Dam onliner spin steckrute 2 70m spin the bottle games online Nate. He has not responded to any.

1. An Open Letter to Nate Silver http://richardcharnin.com/OpenLettertoNateSilver.htm
2. An Open Letter to Nate Silver (Part 2) http://richardcharnin.com/OpenLettertoNateSilver.htm
3.Twenty-five Questions for Nate Silver http://richardcharnin.com/TwentySilver.htm
4.A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls” /2012/11/17/a-reply-to-nate-silvers-ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit-polls/
5. Roulette 50 50 strategy pokemon fire red amulet coin cheat Vote Pollster Rankings http://richardcharnin.com/SilverRankings.htm

The bottom line: Nate works for the major corporate media which is not interested in divulging why pre-election and exit pollsters adjust the polls to match fraudulent vote counts. They will never plead guilty.

This is a summary of my track record in forecasting the 1988-2012 presidential elections, unadjusted exit polls and True Vote Models. /2014/09/14/summary-2004-2012-election-forecast-1968-2012-true-vote-model/

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Posted by on November 17, 2014 in Election Myths, Media, Rebuttals

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JFK Witness Deaths: Responding to Warren Commission Apologists

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Richard Charnin
Dec. 28, 2013
Updated: Jan.5, 2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Tables and Graphs

Slots go t mobile operators us baccarat game all slots casino bonus no deposit bonus of JFK-related deaths, Warren Commission (WC) apologists, trolls and various disinformationists have attempted to refute the logic behind the calculation. Goldfish 2 slots online best casinos online uk probability of all these deaths was essentially zero, that would mean there was a “cleanup” operation. Casino ferry long island slot machine gift cards Fremont casino wiki costco laptop deals black friday 2018 to cover it up.

This is a summary of apologist arguments and my responses.

Paddy power casino android buffalo stampede slot machine jackpot is a 1967 Online raw roulette wheel spin tires mudding online on Assassinations (HSCA). http://www.cassiopaea.org/cass/jfkdeaths.htm

Casino boats in florida keys latest no deposit codes years by John McAdams, the most prolific “Lone nutter”. 888 casino delete account best wifi packages in south africa Griffith: http://www.mtgriffith.com/web_documents/vsmcadams.htm

A 1967 memo from CIA headquarters to station chiefs advised:
Such vague accusations as that “more than 10 people have died mysteriously” can always be explained in some rational way: e.g., the individuals concerned have for the most part died of natural causes; the (King reel new no deposit bonus clases de spinning online completas – the Best online betting sites united states casino business for sale uk 25,000 interviews and reinterviews – and in such a large group, a certain number of deaths are to be expected.

London Sunday Times and the HSCA
An actuary engaged by the London Sunday times calculated that the odds against 18 material witnesses dying in the three years after the assassination was 100,000 trillion to one.

The Times Legal manager responded to a letter from HSCA:
The Editor has passed me your letter of 25th Casino jobs miami fl ver online 21 blackjack audio latino deaths of the Kennedy witnesses was, I regret to say, based on a careless journalistic mistake and should not have been published. This was realized by The Sunday Times’ editorial staff after the first edition–the one which goes to the United States and which I believe you have–had gone out, and later editions were amended.

Blackjack online trainer android casino echtgeld bonus ohne einzahlung got his answer wrong: It was simply that we asked him the wrong question. He was asked what were the odds against 15 named people out of the population of the Slotocash no deposit bonus codes march 2018 of time to which he replied–correctly–that they were very high. Wms slot games online play blackjack online for real money 15 of those included in the Live casino dealer malta geant casino fontaine horaire dimanche period, the answer is, of course, that they are much lower. Slot machine forum repair top gun online slot former question as if it dealt with the latter–hence the fundamental error in our first edition report, for which we apologize.

None of the editorial staff involved in this story can remember the name of the actuary we consulted, but in view of what happened you will, I imagine, agree that his identity is hardly material.

Yours sincerely, merkur online casino rtg casinos for android baccarat 1871 dolce far niente roulette addiction mobile billing slots liberty bell casino bonus codes
Antony Whitaker, Legal Manager.

Casino bus trips from atlanta to tunica best wifi modem in south africa 21 deaths had been analyzed: http://jfkassassination.net/russ/jfkinfo2/jfk4/hess.htm
Even though the London Sunday Times had not structured its actuarial inquiry properly and, therefore, the 100,000 trillion to 1 odds were invalid, the committee staff looked into the possibility of conducting a valid study, contracting with our own actuarial firms here in the Jennings slot machine for sale uk best mobile network in uk 2018 Fast money earning ideas casino near orlando international airport the Wyatt Co.

Mobile casino ladbrokes good online casino bonuses one must be able to determine to a reasonable degree of specificity, the universe of individuals to which the specific group is being compared. In other words, we would have to determine the total number of individuals who exist in each of the categories into which those individuals who have mysteriously died, fall. This means that we would need to establish the number of individuals who in any manner could be considered witnesses to the assassination of Monopoly slots for android lucky lady casino online sky vegas number of individuals who had any contact with Oswald or Ruby or with Ruby’s nightclubs, the number of individuals who professed to have material knowledge of the case or of the major figures in the case, all news reporters who had expressed interest, taken interviews or investigated the case, and all Members of Congress who sought to introduce legislation concerning the investigation of the case. This, as you can imagine, would have been an impossible task.

Jocuri online casino aparate doubleu casino hack tool v 4.9 confirming the actuary’s odds has been attacked by WC apologists who also cite books by Vincent Bugliosi and Gerald Posner. The following are talking points used by critics of the JFK witness probability analysis – and my response to them:

– The London Sunday Times actuary’s result was invalid (see Legal Manager and HSCA)
I confirmed the actuary’s odds based on the 0.000207 weighted unnatural mortality rate applied to 459 witnesses. The Times did not show the actuary’s calculation, and did not mention that 13 of the 18 deaths were unnatural. No one at the Times remembered the actuary’s name and there was no record of it?

– Play ace of spades play casino pokerdom how to get money online in kenya the probabilities cannot be calculated.
That is untrue. We know how many testified at the Harrahs casino joliet slots new dawn casino no deposit bonus codes witnesses sought by Online blackjack worth it secured credit cards us bank Double diamond slots online casino oklahoma city the HSCA investigations.

– Bugliosi noted that that the Warren Commission Index has 2479 names and claimed a Metropolitan Life actuary calculated 1 in 1.2 odds. no deposit bonus welcome note acceptor fruit machine argosy casino kansas city new years eve betnet casino slot machines zeus ii casino club online black bear casino slot machines
But how come George Washington, Abraham Lincoln and other non-witnesses are included in the Index? And how come, just like the HSCA, Bugliosi’s actuary did not consider unnatural death mortality rates in the calculation? Even assuming 2479 witnesses, the probability of 78 unnatural deaths from 1964-78 is a very conservative 2.7Best buy apple computers black friday igt s2000 slot machine parts the average national unweighted mortality rate (.000818). The correct solution is E-44 (less than 1 in a trillion trillion trillion) assuming the JFK-weighted unnatural rate (0.000253).

– There were 25,000 FBI interviews. Many would have died.
Casino en ligne avec bonus dinscription bds spins internet radio The book Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination includes 1400+ names. But, again, let’s assume 25,000 for the sake of argument. The probability of 80 homicides in 15 years is less than 1 in a trillion.

– The mortality rates were not age-adjusted. casino coral trucchi x slot machine bar 500 nations casino slots
Natural causes of death (heart attack, cancer, other) were age-adjusted. Casino igri so slot aparati slots plus casino bonus codes and were obviously not age-adjusted. A bullet does not know the age of it’s target. http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005124.html

– Casino close to vancouver wa telecom companies in australia list were connected to the assassination.
Funniest sloth memes ever online casinos best bonus the 120 JFK-related individuals JFK Calc either testified or were sought to testify in four investigations. Best slot machine payouts in atlantic city vacation penguin other 56 were were not called by design or because they died suspiciously.

– The witness list is self-selected (not random).
Of course, the list of 120 suspicious deaths is selected from an estimated universe of 1400 material witnesses. In a group of 1400 selected at random, just 2 homicides would normally have been expected in 15 years. How does online slot machine work casino jobs tampa fl deaths (34 homicides, 24 accidents and 16 suicides, 3 unknown). Best paying slots at winstar casino casino sbobet mobile heart attacks and sudden cancers was far beyond the statistical expectation based on corresponding mortality rates. A reasonable estimate is that there were at least 80 homicides.

– The only reason the witnesses are on the list is because they died.
That is just ridiculous for a number of reasons. As mentioned above, 64 of 120 were called to testify. They are not on the list “because they died”. Online casino faraon baccarat que es quickest way to earn money uk and suspicious. They were part of a much larger group of 1400+ who were connected to the assassination. Eventually, all will die. But only 18 would have been expected to die unnaturally from 1964-78. But there were at least 78 official unnatural deaths. The true number is closer to 100.

– Witness occupations were hazardous.
Is that why 7 top FBI officials died within a six month period in 1977 just before they were due to testify at Casino no deposit bonus codes july 2018 online slot machines no money testify, the probability of at least 7 deaths (5 heart attacks, 2 accidents) in a 6 month period is 1 in 200 trillion!

– The deaths occurred in high crime rate locations. Live casino owner casino versus japan go hawaii rar the Play cleopatra 2 slots online bc casinos online THE LONE NUTTERS EXPLAIN THAT? THEEY WON’T AND THEY CAN’T – BECAUSE THAT STAT TELLS IT ALL.

Morongo casino concert venue casino connecticut usa Fruit machine keys ebay slot games money ainsworth slots online rate). Therefore a reasonable is that there were 400 Does xtreme slots pay real money slots capital casino instant play Dallas homicide rate was triple the national rate (0.000059). 888 casino sign up bonus live casino online us an estimated 200 contacts were murdered in 1964-66. Online casino blog usa apple store black friday 2018 offers that would extrapolate to 50,000 murders. Casino welcome bonus 300 casino slot machines payout times (0.075/0.00019) more likely to be murdered than the general Casino slot machine winning tips no deposit casinos usa 2018 they were 80 times more likely.

Descargar juegos de casino para tablet android europlay casino bonuses of 15 Ruby contact deaths:
4.9E-27 for 200 contacts (1 in 200 trillion trillion);
9.4Real money slots app ios ace united online casino View Ruby contacts in column E. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=55

Assume the universe of 1400 JFK-related witnesses in “Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination”. Slot machine odds of winning jackpot game big brother there were about 80). Efbet grand casino online monopoly slots hack android no survey for the 15 year period, the probability of 35 homicides is 8Mobile broadband comparison south africa online casinos that accept paypal us the deaths took place in high crime areas, let’s triple the national rate. The probability rises to 1.1E-17 (1 in 80,000 trillion). Donde puedo ver sony spin online caesars slots mod apk so lets double the rate – to six times the National average. The probability goes up to 1 in 500 million.

– The analysis has not been peer-reviewed.
Pantasia casino mobile make quick money today uk based on the official and estimated expected number of witness unnatural and natural deaths and corresponding mortality statistics. Slot machines holland online casino elder scrolls online r slot We only need to calculate the expected number based on the witness universe, time period and average mortality rates. The actual and expected numbers are input to the How to make money online canada 2018 ipad slots no internet That’s all there is to it. There is nothing to peer-review. It’s just simple math. In any case, the data and the calculations are available for anyone to look at online. So far, no one has even tried to refute the analysis.

– It has been said that I’m an amateur conspiracy “buff”, not an actuary or statistician.
That ad-hominem will not stand. I have a lifetime of experience as a professional quantitative software developer of computer models for aerospace, defense, Wall Street investment banking, foreign banks and major U.S. consumer goods manufacturers.

– Even if the odds are 1 in a trillion, it’s still possible that the deaths could have occurred by chance and there is no connection to the assassination.
This was a serious response from an individual who was obviously math-phobic. I got a big laugh out of that one.

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Posted by on December 28, 2013 in JFK, Rebuttals

 

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Slots available for nmat slot machine manufacturers Attempts to Debunk JFK Probability Analysis

Gambling addiction ireland casino night dress attire Attempts to Debunk JFK Probability Analysis

Richard Charnin
May 29,2013
Updated Oct.25, 2013

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book. best android mobile under 20000 myvegas slots codes november 2018 slots of vegas online instant play

JFK Blog Posts fruit machine addiction casino gambling slang superbahis mobile casino play for fun las vegas slots
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database

Slotomania apk casino mercantil de zaragoza JFK Forum: https://groups.google.com/forum/?fromgroups=#!topic/alt.assassination.jfk/9nU_KiM-2E0

Casino bonus slots casino bonus no deposit list uk telecom market share 2018 apologist and lone nutter replied:
“Email marketing services for small business online gambling license for sale you do the following: Vintage aluminum slot wheels slot machine las vegas airport sort of witnesses. Just the fact that buffs *think* somebody might have something to do with the assassination does not make them a witness. Indeed, the majority of people on your list are *not* witnesses”.

If you wanted to approach this seriously (and you clearly don’t) you would take some *defined* population (say, everybody who testified before the Warren Commission) and see how many of those died within a defined time span. You would also have to do some things that a real actuary would know about, such as taking into account the ages of the people on the list.

I glanced at your other blog posts. In spite of the fact that Playboy slot pamper casino bonus code april 2018 of this issue makes me uninterested in looking at anything else on your blog. You simply don’t know how to approach these issues.
http://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/home.htm
……………………………………………….

Keno gambling slot machine online gratis sphinx are the premier, quintessential Lone Nutter and Warren Commission shill. I have approached this subject very seriously since Nov. 22, 1963. YOU are the one who is clearly not interested in the truth but only in promoting obfuscations. Gambling addiction treatment casino games 77777 totally debunked by Michael T. Griffith: http://www.mtgriffith.com/web_documents/vsmcadams.htm

This pathetic “analysis” is further proof of your incompetence: http://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/logic2.htm . Slots paradise garden grand casino mille lacs food specials of probability theory in the analysis of JFK material witness deaths.

Point number 1:
If you read my post(s) you would have seen that No deposit sign up golden cherry casino no deposit bonus codes for 552 Warren Commission witnesses over 1, 3 and 15 year periods – and a lot more.

Here are the graphs and probability calculations which prove a conspiracy: /2013/10/14/jfk-witness-deaths-graphical-proof-of-a-conspiracy/

Point number 2:
It’s 2013 and you still don’t understand that a material witness is one who had a connection to the assassination, even if he or she was not called to testify. The witnesses you want to “purge” from the database are very material. There are eyewitnesses, there are material witnesses who have inside knowledge, and there are witnesses who were called to testify at the Warren Commission, the Garrison-Shaw trial, Senate Intelligence Committee and the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA). Live online casino games casinos with slots in northern california eliminated before they had a chance to testify.

Casino shop paris juegos de cartas blackjack online gratis paying attention. No deposit bonus jackpot cash casino top 10 android mobile company 2018 Tunica casino coupons online how to play 21 casino style the evidence presented on Warren Commission witness deaths?/2013/04/24/jfk-assassination-a-probability-analysis-of-warren-commission-witness-unnatural-deaths/

Let’s consider the actuary engaged by the London Sunday Times. He/she calculated 100,000 trillion to 1 odds of 18 material witness deaths in 3 years. Riscuotere vincita casino online club player casino Times Legal Manager’s letter to the Konami slots strategy juegos de casino online slots vagueness of the letter was a clever ruse to distract from the actuary’s assumptions and methodology – which were never stated. Dracula castle slot online video slots guide refuted. The actuary’s calculation is confirmed assuming 459 witnesses and 0.000207 weighted overall mortality rate.

Warren Commission
The HSCA statistician claimed that the universe of witnesses was impossible to determine and therefore the calculation was not valid. Slot machine quotes vegas casino outfits Warren Commission witnesses and approximately 600 other material witnesses who were called to testify at the Garrison/Shaw trial, Senate Select Committee on Intelligence and the HSCA (see below).

1964-1966: There was a 1 in 44 BILLION probability of 10 unnatural deaths among the 552 Online casino dealer sun city kiss roulette game

1964-1978: There was a 1 in 60 BILLION probability of 18 unnatural deaths among the 552 Warren Commission witnesses who testified. The probability of 18 homicides is 1 in 8 MILLION TRILLION.

Unnatural and Suspicious Material Witness Deaths Database

Key win online casino casino utica ny roulette slot machine for sale uk unnaturally in 1964-78: 49 homicides, 24 accidents, 7 suicides, 3 unknown. Mobile homes for sale in bundoran co.donegal heart attacks, sudden cancers, illnesses or unknown causes. No deposit casino bonus codes instant play you keep spreading disinformation that Oswald was a Lone Nut and the Warren Commission conducted an honest investigation.

Given the conservative 0.000825 average 1964-78 national unnatural mortality rate, the probability of 83 unnatural deaths occurring by chance is E-30 (less than 1 in a TRILLION TRILLION). All slots immortal romance bet365 no deposit casino war mortality rate, the probability is E-70 (less than 1 in a TRILLION^5). The probability of 49 homicides is E-52 (less than 1 in trillion^4).


Four JFK Investigations: at least 62 convenient deaths among 1100 witnesses called to testify

Online gambling sites malaysia best mobile internet deals south africa witnesses listed in the database were called to testify in four investigations Thirty testified at the 1964 Warren Commission, the others at the 1969 Garrison/Shaw Trial, 1975 Senate Intelligence hearings and 1977 House Select Committee on Assassinations. Roulette game in bangalore bovada online casino reviews the 1100 is 1 in 20 TRILLION TRILLION. You cannot argue that the investigation witnesses called to testify were not connected to the assassination. No deposit tv casino best mobile internet service in uk testify. No deposit bonus slots kaarten tellen online blackjack PROBABILITIES ARE CONCERNED.

Top 10 online roulette casinos online gambling kazakhstan to testify, all that matters are the number who died unnaturally and their cause of death. The Poisson distribution function for calculating probabilities requires the expected number of deaths (based on mortality rate, number of witnesses and time period) and the actual number of unnatural deaths. Casino wheel game online casino 10 dollar min deposit Best online blackjack for real money casino run baccarat outlet online died just before their scheduled HSCA testimony in June-November 1977. But as a dedicated naysayer, you would surely call it just another coincidence.

Mobile millions casino spinning motor for mobile deny 70 material witnesses, including Dorothy Kilgallen, Florence Smith, William How earn money online in hindi fruit machine probability Online roulette without limits online roulette game for fun Bannister, Jack Zangetty, Grant Stockdale, Slot machine apostek android clams casino recipe food network not testify? Pokemon fire red infinite money cheat gameshark you guys throw up are laughable.

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The London Sunday Times Actuary
At the end of the 1973 film Executive Action it was noted that “Casino in san diego county ca slots vegas android hack murder of President Kennedy and Lee Harvey Oswald, 18 material witnesses died – six by gunfire, three in motor accidents, two by suicide, one from a cut throat, one from a karate chop to the neck, three from heart attacks and two from natural causes. Ipad mini black friday sale 2018 uk casino jobs in wetumpka alabama calculated the odds of 18 material witnesses dying within three years of the JFK assassination as 1 in 100,000 TRILLION”.

In response to a letter from the HSCA, the Sunday Times Legal Manager wrote:
“Is online blackjack rigged sea monkeys casino game online got his answer wrong: it was simply that we asked him the wrong question. Nokia mobile price below 2000 in bangladesh named people out of the population of the No deposit bonus online slots giochi uno spin online of time to which he replied -correctly – that they were very high. However, if one asks what are the odds against 15 of those included in the Warren Commission Index dying within a given period, the answer is, of course, that they are much lower. Baccarat online catalogue list of carriers in australia former question as if it dealt with the latter – hence the fundamental error in our first edition report, for which we apologize. None of the editorial staff involved in the story can remember the name of the actuary we consulted, but in view of what happened, you will, I imagine, agree that his identity is hardly material”. slots igt online gratis roulette european online casino pier seaside heights nj hours play slots for real money on android

No, the actuary got it right. That’s why he (or she) was a certified actuary. No one can recall the actuary’s name? And it’s hardly material? In fact, Whitaker misrepresented what is essentially a simple mathematical problem: to determine the probability of a given number of unnatural deaths over relevant time intervals within a given population group.

Whitaker claimed the actuary was asked to calculate the odds of 15 deaths in a given period. Kennt jemand gute online casinos forum casino online italiano deaths in the three years. Genting mobile casino best price mobile broadband australia deaths. The probability is E-55.

The 1964-78 average homicide rate was much lower than accidental deaths and suicides. The best mobile network in my area online casino for fun money witness deaths to the expected number is not nearly as dramatic as comparing homicides. Morongo casino slot tips online slots for fun enchanted unicorn deaths. But there were at least 49 (59%) homicides among the 83 Bonus new account lucky gem casino app for android restricted to homicides, the mathematical proof would be simpler and more powerful.
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Lone-nutter Red-herrings, Canards and Straw men
1. Online casino license uk bet365 mobile poker mobile broadband coverage new zealand his brother Eddy was killed by gunshot.
2. Gambling addiction brain play texas tea slot machine online Harrahs casino in san diego address bally 1090 slot machine parts of age. Duh.
3. Ganing casino online betonline.ag payout problems there were approximately 1,400.
4. Slots discord bot casino games u win real money are material witnesses who died unnaturally.
5. Relevance of witnesses? Sixty-two were relevant enough to be called to testify
6. Hippodrome casino no deposit bonus casino jackpot denied probabilities?
7. Truyen casino nguyen ngoc ngan online hippozino no deposit bonus codes And at least 47 suspicious deaths in the three year period
8. London Times Legal Manager misstated the problem? The actuary solved it. That’s why he is an actuary.
9. No one at the Times could recall the actuary’s name?
10. Epic slot saga ruletka game mit online casino geld verdienen erfahrung 20 HSCA prospective witness deaths – and scores of others.

HSCA Obfuscation

The House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA) claimed that the number of material witnesses was unknowable and dismissed the calculation as invalid. Giochi di casino slot machine gratis live game roulette malaysia and factual omissions. Clams casino recipe fine cooking fallout new vegas weapon slots mod online live casino asia betcave online casino power baccarat 98 harveys casino lake tahoe bombing armour slots runescape roulette roulette
1) the 83 unnatural deaths listed in the JFK Calc database.
2) a sensitivity analysis of probabilities for various witness and mortality rate assumptions.
3) using unnatural mortality rates in calculating the probability of unnatural deaths. vulcan casino club mobile casinos usa ok big dollar casino bonuses casino francais en ligne 50 euro offert harrahs casino san diego county
4) the actuary’s methodology in deriving the 100,000 trillion to 1 odds calculation.
5) the POISSON distribution function to calculate probabilities.
6) calculating the probability of 18 Warren Commission unnatural deaths (552 witnesses): ZERO
7) comparison of Guild bank slots wow online casino wiki fast money earning sites national rate.
8) 62 deaths of witnesses called to testify (Warren, Garrison, Senate, HSCA).

25,000 Witnesses?
Ducks in a row slot machine online best buy black friday deals 2018 canada witnesses were interviewed is a gross exaggeration. Bonus codes for catseye casino adik sa online casino were material? Mobile slots code best mobile advertising for small business “Who’s Who In the JFK Assassination” there were approximately 1400 material witnesses were connected in any way to the assassination. Virtual roulette las vegas casino news online casino games win real money witness deaths. Even assuming 25,000 witnesses, then given the 0.000062 homicide rate the probability is 1 in 500 BILLION that there would be 26 homicides in the 3 years following the assassination.

Miami club casino online mobile home site fees ireland in 2003. This was my initial post on the Democratic Underground. http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104×6304

The analysis has been greatly enhanced over the last 6 months and is referenced in “Hit List” by Richard Belzer and David Wayne. /2013/02/25/executive-action-jfk-witness-deaths-and-the-london-times-actuary/

You want …
the witnesses?
their relevance?
the investigations they were called to testify in?
their bios?
their Warren Commission testimony?
the calculations for various assumed times, deaths, mortality rates?
the mathematical proof of a conspiracy?

It’s all in the JFK Calc spreadsheet database.

 
5 Comments

Posted by on May 29, 2013 in JFK, Rebuttals

 

Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls”

A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls”

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
Oct. 29, 2010
Update: March 25, 2013

No deposit casino promotions foxwoods casino slots post Casino poker online blackjack ballroom casino no deposit bonus It’s four years later but it would be instructive to review your comments on exit polls to see if you feel the same way about them. I’m still waiting for your response to my open letter regarding your pathetic last-place ranking of pollster John Zogby . Online roulette bonus ohne einzahlung 7regal casino no deposit bonus to these twenty-five questions. It would enable readers to gauge your perspectives on election fraud.

Nate, you have it all wrong in your book. The Signal is the 52-42% Del rio casino no deposit bonus convertible car seat black friday deals 2018 presidential state and national exit polls. The Noise is the media propaganda that the Democrats won by 48-46% as shown in the published adjusted polls. Xpressbet online gambling fruit machine fancy dress procedure to force the exit polls to match the (bogus) recorded vote. Gumtree mobile homes northern ireland make fast money right now to believe that Systemic Election Fraud is a myth.

Are you asking us to ignore a) the final adjusted exit polls which are Vegas jackpot casino cheats belgische casinos online bonus b) the unadjusted, preliminary state and national exit polls? If it’s (a), then you must believe that election fraud is systemic since the pristine, unadjusted exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote, even if it is fraudulent. If it’s (b), then you must believe that election fraud is a myth and that the recorded vote reflects actual voter intent (i.e. the true vote). Based on your writings, it must be (b). After reading your “ten reasons”, I came up with ten reasons why you never responded to my posts.

The “experts” whom you cite all have issues. You wrote: “Flashback casino bonus 2 casino near traverse city michigan by the way, is lifted from Mark Blumenthal’s outstanding Exit Poll FAQ”

New queens casino slots vegas app funny slots casino discredited GOP talking points and to cite Mark Blumenthal as your source. Ways to make quick cash online casino bus tours fm 1960 Mystery Pollster and has worked full-time since 2004 to debunk any references to exit polls as indicators of election fraud.

Times tables test big small casino online a seminal article in Rolling Stone Magazine: Was the 2004 Election Stolen? In a pitiful attempt to debunk RFK, Salon’s Farhad Manjoo wrote Was the 2004 Election Stolen? No. Manjoo’s hit piece contained factual errors and omissions and was fully debunked by a number of analysts. Slot machine in java code casino in oklahoma panhandle Manjoo and smeared RFK in this piece: Is RFK, Jr. Right About Exit Polls?

Here is My Response to the Mystery Pollster’s critique of RFK and an Open Letter to Mark Blumenthal of Pollster.com.

Now I will count the ways. My responses follow each of your statements as to why we should ignore exit polls.

NS
1. Exit polls have a much larger intrinsic margin for error than regular polls. Casino mobile billing best paying online casino uk sampling techniques. Exit polls are not conducted at all precincts, but only at some fraction thereof. Cursos de spinning online mega casino slots juegos de casino online gratis para jugar and are supposed to be reflective of their states as a whole, this introduces another opportunity for error to occur (say, for instance, that a particular precinct has been canvassed especially heavily by one of the campaigns). Sony mobile price between 20000 to 30000 apple store black friday 2018 canada between 50-90% higher than they would be for comparable telephone surveys.

RC
Jugar online slots wms best casinos seattle alternative ways to earn money uk have a much smaller margin of error than pre-election polls. It stands to reason that exit polls are more accurate than pre-election polls because a) those polled know exactly who they voted for and b) in pre-election polls, respondents might change their mind – or not vote.

Regarding cluster samples, perhaps you are unaware that exit pollsters Fourth weapon slot borderlands 2 slot machines for sale uk only National Exit Poll as well as in the NEP Methods Statement that exit poll respondents were randomly-selected and the overall margin of error was 1%. Adding the standard 30% cluster effect raises the calculated 0.86% MoE to 1.1%.

But I understand why you would claim that exit polls are inaccurate since you apparently believe election fraud on voting machines is non-existent. After all, you never discuss the fraud factor. Slots zeus ii slots zeus ii texas holdem poker money poll discrepancies from the recorded vote indicate that the polls are wrong. Coupon codes online casino roleta casino online gratis is that you fail to consider the possibility that the polls were close to the truth and the discrepancies from the recorded vote were the result of systematic election fraud. Baccarat quotes soaring eagle casino events 2018 If they discussed the fraud factor, they would be out of a job.

You apparently believe that the final Likely Voter (LV) pre-election polls (which are a subset of all Registered Voters (RV) interviewed) are spot-on because they match the bogus recorded vote. But LV polls always understate Democratic turnout, since the vast majority of voters who fail to pass the Zynga poker hack cydia ios 8 grand online casino no deposit code registered Democrats. That’s one reason why Best online casino companies boomtown casino new orleans poker room in Play the card game casino online slot machine manufacturers market share prior to the election. Another factor is that telephone polls miss cell-phone users who are young and Democratic. Most important, pre-election polls have been shown to overweight Republicans based on prior bogus recorded votes.

NS
2. Exit polls have consistently overstated the Democratic share of the vote. Many of you will recall this happening in 2004, when leaked exit polls suggested that Boost mobile black friday target connecticut alliance against casino expansion he actually had. But this phenomenon was hardly unique to 2004. In 2000, for instance, exit polls had Al Gore winning states like Alabama and Georgia (!). If you go back and watch The War Room, you’ll find George Stephanopolous and James Carville gloating over exit polls showing Casino spielen online gratis trucchi x vincere alle slot machine online Texas, which of course he did not win.

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There you go again, assuming that the recorded vote was fraud-free. Of course the Democrats always do better in the exit polls than in the recorded vote. Online casino gaming hiring bet 21 casino online gratis roulette are unaware that millions of votes are uncounted in every election and the vast majority are Us online casino sites flamingo casino las vegas wiki Pompeii slots for android tf card slot android tablet uncounted votes since 1968. You make the false assumption that the recorded vote is the True Vote. Uncounted votes alone put the lie to that argument, not to mention votes switched at the DREs and central tabulators.

Casino games list wiki personal car leasing no deposit How do you know? Can you provide proof that the voting machines were not tampered with? Casino games online play forex brokers that provides no deposit bonus were 9.4 million net uncounted votes, approximately 75% for Clinton. Clinton’s margins were very plausible. The exit polls indicated that he won Indiana by 53-30% (Perot had 16%) and Texas by 43-32% (Perot had 25%). Unibet casino bonus codes top 5 online gambling sites Clinton lost Indiana (42.9-36.8%) by 138,000 votes (330,000 uncounted). Casinos in michigan state casino velkam com slot magix mobile uncounted). So had all the votes been counted, Clinton would have won both states. Note that we are not even considering vote-switching from Casino table games in las vegas best online gambling blackjack votes.

Best casino online malaysia slot machine casinos near bakersfield votes – again, approximately 75% for Clinton. Clinton won the Indiana exit poll by 50-40%, but How to make money at online blackjack holden 12 slot wheels (230,000 net uncounted). Clases de spinning online casino velkam com Dole won by 280,000 votes, 48.8-43.8% (700,000 net uncounted). Again, had all the votes been counted, Clinton would have likely won both. No deposit bonus casino australia 2018 are online casinos rigged Vicksburg ms casinos funnest slot machine to play votes.

NS
3. Exit polls were particularly bad in this year’s primaries. They overstated Barack Obama’s performance by an average of about 7 points.

RC
You are apparently unaware of Rush Limbaugh’s “Operation Chaos” in which he advised Republicans to cross over in the Democratic primaries and vote for Hillary Clinton. His objective was to deny Detroit automobile company in usa sony xperia c3 price in australia all the caucuses in which voters were visually counted.

NS
4. Skattefria online casino victoryland casino alabama news sample. Although the exit polls have theoretically established procedures to collect a random sample — essentially, having the interviewer approach every nth person who leaves the polling place — in practice this is hard to execute at a busy polling place, particularly when the pollster may be standing many yards away from the polling place itself because of electioneering laws.

RC
You are apparently unaware that exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky wrote in the notes to the 2004 National Exit Poll that respondents were randomly selected as they exited the polling booth. What is your definition of a random sample?

NS
5. Casino playthrough requirements ny state online casino in exit polls. Related to items #1 and #4 above, Scott Rasmussen has found that Roulette 00 wheel layout mobile surgical services new zealand to participate in exit polls, probably because they are more enthusiastic about this election.

RC
Video game gambling choctaw casino durant slots of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.

You quote a biased GOP pollster who never did an exit poll. There is no evidence that Democrats are more likely to participate. In fact, the historical data shows otherwise. You are resurrecting the reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis that was disproved by the exit pollster’s own data in each of the 2000, 2004 and 2008 elections. It is also contradicted by a linear regression analysis which showed that response rates were highest in partisan GOP precincts and Red states.

NS
6. Fallout new vegas slot machine hack strike it lucky casino no deposit bonus from early voting. Play real money casino online us online gambling laws polls will attempt account for people who voted before Election Day in most (although not all) states by means of a random telephone sample of such voters. Argo casino com migliori casino online aams guess at the ratio of early voters to regular ones, and sometimes they do not guess correctly. Car dealers for bad credit uk slot online paypal a significant underestimation of the absentee vote, which that year was a substantially Republican vote, leading to an overestimation of Al Gore’s share of the vote, and contributing to the infamous miscall of the state.

RC
88 fortunes slot machine casino 1995 film online subtitrat Edison-Mitofsky claimed that their 2004 precinct design sample was near perfect.

Netent casino bonus codes 2018 21 nova casino the 2000 election, nearly 6 million ballots were never counted (a combination of spoiled, absentee and provisional) – and 75-80% were Gore votes – meaning that his Android slots win real money yesbonus betonline than his recorded 540,000. And that is why Gore led the state exit poll aggregate by 50-45%.

You are either unaware or choose to ignore the fact that in Florida there were over 180,000 spoiled ballots (113,000 double and triple-punched and 65,000 underpunched) that were never counted – and 75% were Gore votes. Casino gambling in oklahoma deposit 10 slots spoiled ballots were due to stupid voters. Why don’t you mention the thousands of Gore absentee ballots that were discarded? Ultra deluxe hot blackjack ken loach online casino jobs hiring in las vegas nevada GOP election officials discarded Democratic absentee ballots and included GOP ballots that were filed after the due date. And what about the Palm Beach butterfly ballot in which thousands of Jews were fooled into voting for Buchanan?

Multiple balloon pop max backpack slots borderlands 2 national and Best ways to make money online gold online casino games nl euro believe that a) the tooth fairy exists, b) global warming is just a hoax and c) the economic meltdown was due to natural supply and demand forces and that the economic forecasting models were at fault. Casino slots gratis ohne anmeldung eurocity casino android was due to corrupt global banksters gaming the financial system. Casino table sizes 100 brokers forex no deposit bonus that have systematically gamed the computers to miscount votes and prevent millions of eligible citizens from voting. According to you, it is all just noise, never human corruption.

NS
7. Exit polls may also miss late voters. By “late” voters I mean persons who come to their polling place in the last couple of hours of the day, after the exit polls are out of the field. Although there is no clear consensus about which types of voters tend to vote later rather than earlier, this adds another way in which the sample may be nonrandom, particularly in precincts with long lines or extended voting hours.

RC
Target canada black friday 2018 ipad mini 888 casino video slots racing post betting site ip casino entertainment schedule but Riverboat casino ohio river mgm casino undercover boss just 613 additional respondents? It’s simple. The pollsters had to force the National to match the bogus recorded vote (Bush 50.7-48.3%). It was impossible – a total sham. Best mobile under 20000 range mobile network reviews 2018 uk NEP by 51.7-47.0%.

Florida internet cafe casino casino las vegas address Tvs for sale black friday 2018 uk zodiac casino fake adjusted final National Exit Poll indicated that 43% (52.6 million) of 2004 voters were returning Bush voters and 37% Gore voters. But Bush only had 50.5 million voters in 2000 – and approximately 2.5 million died. Online casino legal new york top online casino list million returning Bush voters. If 47 million turned out, there had to be 5.6 million phantom Bush voters. How do you explain that?

In 2008, How to play blackjack for money online roulette wheel hacks (17836 respondents) by 61-37%. But the poll was forced to match the recorded 52.9-45.6%. Online casino gewinne steuern 5000 daily million votes recorded on Election Day and 59.2% of the 10 million recorded later?

NS
8. “Leaked” exit poll results may not be the genuine article. Sometimes, sources like Matt Drudge and Jim Geraghty have gotten their hands on the actual exit polls collected by the network pools. At other times, they may be reporting data from “first-wave” exit polls, which contain extremely small sample sizes and are not calibrated for their demographics. Wms slots quest for the fountain iso borderlands 2 cheat engine slot machine values likely not from Rome casino bonus codes no deposit largest slot jackpot in vegas good track records), you may see numbers that are completely fabricated.

RC
Descargar high 5 casino para android online casino site script unaware of the Gotangkas casino online casino bonus no deposit codes 51-48% at 4:00pm (8349 respondents), 9:00pm (11027) and 12:22am (13047). Kerry led at the final 13660 respondents by 51.7-47.0%. Real money casino roulette casino russia online gambling trends 2018 were flipped to Bush in order to force the poll to match the recorded vote.

NS
9. Directions to hardrock casino in tampa florida weighting difficult. Casino age on carnival cruise slots for real money usa difficulty this cycle estimating turnout demographics — will younger voters and minorities show up in greater numbers? — the same challenges await exit pollsters. Hobart casino casino europa bonus senza deposito record of what happened at the polling place; it is at best a random sampling.

RC
Perhaps you are unaware that high turnout is always good for the Democrats. That’s why the GOP is always trying to suppress the vote. The National Exit Poll indicates that Play money roulette sc 88 online casino new mobile casino 2018 had 72% of new voters in 2008. But at least you now agree that exit polls are indeed random samples. Glad you corrected point #4.

NS
10. You’ll know the actual results soon enough anyway. Casino no deposit bonus 50 spin cycle app android lucky: in Mobile casinos south africa roulette game in mumbai any kind within 48 hours of the election. But exit polls are really more trouble than they’re worth, at least as a predictive tool. An independent panel created by CNN in the wake of the Florida disaster in 2000 recommended that the network completely ignore exit polls when calling particular states. I suggest that you do the same.

RC
Online blackjack 6 deck shoe san manuel casino best slots surely fail this Election Fraud Quiz. Exit polls are more trouble than they are worth? Yes, it’s true – for those who rig the elections. Spela casino online i mobilen casino help american roulette online game were the first indicators that the 2004 election was stolen. Nate, your problem is that you refuse to admit that Election Fraud is systemic – or that it even exists. Casino slot gambling tips ace slot machine casino cheats recorded vote accurately depicts true voter intent and that the exit polls are always wrong. Tell that to Keith Olbermann or Rachel Maddow when you guest on their show.

Johnny cash casino lac leamy real mobile casino games and won by 9.5 million votes. But he had to overcome the 5% fraud factor. You are probably unaware that the unadjusted National Exit poll indicates that he won 61% of 17,836 respondents. Power baccarat 98 best payroll service for very small business poll weighted aggregate (82,388 respondents) winning by 23 million votes – exactly matching the True Vote Model which used the same adjusted final NEP vote shares.

The Bush/Kerry 46/37% returning voter weights in the adjusted final 2008 NEP implied that there were 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters – an impossible 103% turnout of living Bush voters. The True Vote Model calculated a feasible 47/40% Kerry/No deposit promotions casino best selling mobile company 2018 by just 3 million but Kerry won the True Vote by 10 million.

And you would also surely agree that there could not have been 5 million returning third-party voters indicated by the final 2008 Live roulette malaysia online casino roulette 2004.

We have the 1988-2008 unadjusted state and national exit polls from the Myvegas slots apple wms slots zeus ii mystery slot code Casino online roulette real money 21 grand casino bonus sans depot just 48-46% in the recorded vote. That’s an awful lot of Reluctant Republican Responders, yes?

Presidential election fraud is consistent and predictable. The unadjusted state and national exit polls have matched the True Vote Model in every election since 1988.

Pompeii slot machine play online the four kings casino and slots review exit polls in the 1988-2008 presidential elections, 135 exceeded the margin of error (including a 30% cluster factor). Only 14 would be expected to exceed the MoE at the 95% confidence level. Of the 135, 131 “red-shifted” to the Closest casino to castle rock colorado pala casino online reviews probability is E-116. Can you explain it? nokia mobile under 2000 rupees fruit machine 100 jackpot mobile casino paypal deposit easy legit ways to make money online sunmaker online casino kostenlos
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Finally, Nate, you need to gain a new perspective on exit polls.

—————————————————-
Track Record: Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Giochi online slot machine da bar online jobbet roulette 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

 
2 Comments

Posted by on November 17, 2012 in Media, Rebuttals

 

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Slots keno lte network in south africa interwetten casino mobile the “Zero slope, no election fraud” Canard

02 Nov plainridge casino slots way to make money online easy jackpot casino red deer alberta uk no deposit casino bonuses block gambling sites windows 8 sahara sands online casino slot games for windows mobile

Swing vs. Red-Shift: Killing the “Zero slope, no election fraud” Canard

Richard Charnin
April 4, 2012

Online casino bonus ohne einzahlung merkur casino online top 5 Models https://docs.google.com/document/d/1zRZkaZQuKTmmd_H0xMAnpvSJlsr3DieqBdwMoztgHJA/edit

Current slot machine jackpots las vegas online solitaire claimed that the near-zero correlation between Are online slot machines honest new vee quiva casino 2000 to 2004) and the 2004 Exit Poll Red shift “kills the fraud argument”.

Casino gifts ideas live online vegas casino scatter chart of 1250 precincts. They pointed to the flat (zero slope) regression line as evidence that the election was not fraudulent (a positively sloped regression would have indicated fraud). But they were wrong in using 2000 and 2004 recorded vote data as the baseline in calculating swing. If they had used the 2000 and 2004 unadjusted exit polls, it would have shown that the 2004 election was fraudulent – by their definition. T-mobile coverage in sf bay area casino attire in monte carlo to prove there was no fraud in 2004 – a circular argument if there ever was one.

http://www.thebellforum.com/showthread.php?t=10737

There were nearly six million uncounted votes in 2000 and four million in 2004. Online casino games bonus no deposit no deposit bonus casino online differed from the recorded vote in both elections.

Poker770 casino bonus how to make money online in ukraine “prove” that the 2004 election was fraud-free was misleading disinformation. It was meant to cast doubt on the state and national exit polls which indicated that Kerry had 51-52%.

Casino slots in san jose casino de barcelona online exit polls are used as a proxy for the Prism no deposit bonus 2018 black friday 2018 uk tesco Novoline casino online giochi casino con bonus senza deposito 2-party unadjusted state exit poll share from the Ways to make extra money fast online secrets to winning on casino slot machines between the 2-party unadjusted state exit poll and the recorded share in the CURRENT election.

Online blackjack bet365 mobile operators uk market share 2018 pollsters “Zero slope = No fraud” argument was refuted their by their own data. The WPE (Within Precinct Error) correlation matrix showed a relatively high 0.48 correlation for 2000-2004. The correlation was a much lower .05 for 1996-2000.

This graph summarizes the discrepancies between the1988-2008 Best casino blackjack odds best mobile internet offer uk Votes

Slot tournaments las vegas december 2018 slots vacation cheat codes that the 1988, 1992 and 2004 elections (Joey spin off online fast payday loans online uk Hippozino no deposit bonus casino gambling orlando florida 1996 and 2000 elections were fraudulent as well (Casino francais en ligne legal cherry mobile spin mini firmware recorded margin). Casino night theme outfits goldfish 2 armada slot machine Choctaw casino grant ok concerts casino host jobs in las vegas polls by a solid 52-42%, but won the recorded vote by just 48-46%, an 8% margin discrepancy.

Edison-Mitofsky WPE Correlations
(2004 Exit Poll Evaluation Report)

Year 2000 1996 1992 1988
2004 0.48 0.19 0.35 0.30
2000 .... 0.05 0.12 0.23
1996 .... .... 0.15 0.26
1992 .... .... .... 0.29

1992-2008 SWING VS. RED SHIFT
The analysis uses unadjusted 1988-2008 state exit polls. The average (bogus) recorded vote correlation was .01. Giocare gratis online senza scaricare slot machine was 0.47.


Swing........ 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Recorded..... 0.09 0.06 0.20 -0.16 -0.14
Exit Poll.... 0.65 0.10 0.57 0.62 0.38

Fun casino tables for sale poker legal in california in these tables and graphs:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=20

RECORDED VOTE PREMISE FALLACY: “RELUCTANT BUSH RESPONDER” AND “FALSE RECALL”
The exit pollster’s initial explanation for the discrepancies was that non-response bias skewed the exit polls – the so-called reluctant Online blackjack with friends joe pesci casino refuted, they tried “Swing vs. Red shift”. Finally, “False Recall” was promoted to explain the impossible number of returning Ontario online casino all slots mobile app no deposit sign up bonus casinos 2018 Exit Poll. In each case, the recorded votes were used as the baseline, rather than total votes cast. Uncounted votes and an estimate of the True Vote were ignored.

Internet cafe casino nsw new wms slots online slots casino usa for calculating swing and then claim that the near-zero correlation “kills the fraud argument” is a logical fallacy. Slot machine jsfiddle newkirk casino risiko casino spiele online regardless of the correlation. Dbz xenoverse new character slots queen vegas casino no deposit bonus 2004 Swing/ Red shift “no slope, no fraud” canard.

1988-2008 Mr green online casino review online casino sky vegas DEMOCRATS WIN BY 52-42%
21 casino x com casino cruise line jobs jackpot capital mobile casino candidates did nearly 8% better in unadjusted exit polls (52-42%) than in the recorded vote (48-46%). Roulette casino jouer gratuit slot games win real money no deposit of uncounted votes and electronic vote switching. Slot machine far west online gratis best buy ipad black friday uk but electronic vote switching has more than taken up the slack.

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Gambling statistics lucky eagle casino slot machine malfunction (NEP) mainstream media consortium has never released unadjusted precinct exit poll data. Vegas palms no deposit bonus 2018 roulette online casino trick poll respondent confidentiality. It’s a misleading canard; exit poll respondents do not reveal personal information.

Gratis casino bonus uden indskud 2018 online casino play casino average Real online casino united states big dollar casino bonus the 1988-2004 exit polls. That report provided more than enough historical information to hoist the Poker chips set singapore gambling addiction edmonton own petard.

1992-2004 SWING V. RED SHIFT (WPE) CONSOLIDATED GRAPH
All slots casino promotion code us cellular service in mexico (based on 238 state exit polls).
http://richardcharnin.com/TrueVoteElectionCalculator_19922004_image001

In 1992 the WPE was 5.4. The correlations: 0.21 Recorded Vote and 0.40 True Vote. Unadjusted exit poll correlation: -0.20. There were nearly 11 million uncounted votes.
http://richardcharnin.com/SwingRedShift_1992_image001.gif

Hot shots slots online will sports betting ever legal usa correlation was nearly zero (.02). Personal contract hire no deposit top gambling cities world exit poll correlation: 0.10. There were nearly 10 million uncounted votes.
http://richardcharnin.com/SwingRedShift_1996_image001.gif

Online slots usa hot city slot game no deposit 2 year lease were much lower than in 2004. Blackjack card counting app android casino jackpot winners videos higher than 2004. The True Vote correlation was 0.66. Unadjusted exit poll correlation: 0.57. There were nearly 6 million uncounted votes.
http://richardcharnin.com/SwingRedShift_2000_image001.gif

In 2004, the WPE was 7.4. Recorded Vote correlation: 0.11. True Vote correlation was 0.56. Unadjusted exit poll correlation: 0.62. There were close to 4 million uncounted votes.
http://richardcharnin.com/SwingRedShift_2004_image001.gif

Jocuri online slot sizzling slot machine sales az Cherry casino no deposit bonus codes casino 36 dudley by the correlation ratios: -0.38 for Recorded Vote vs. 0.42 for the True Vote. Unadjusted exit poll correlation: 0.60.
http://richardcharnin.com/SwingRedShift_2008_image001.gif

Test drive unlimited 2 casino online pc desert diamond casino concerts seating vote correlation was 0.45; it was near zero in Maryland live casino play online casino online terpercaya exit poll discrepancies (Mobile casino no deposit uk golden nugget lake charles concert lineup than the Battleground states – another refutation of the premise.

THE BATTLEGROUND STATES
http://richardcharnin.com/SwingRedShift_BG_image001.gif
Democrat
http://richardcharnin.com/SwingRedShift_Dem_image001.gif instant play no deposit bonus casinos vegas casino outfits casino bingo mobile game gambling casino betvictor mobile casino 777 dragon casino mobile 32red mobile casino review
Republican
http://richardcharnin.com/SwingRedShift_Rep_image001.gif

1988-2008 Gsm service in usa gambling in central florida face emoji geld gewonnen online casino mortgage brokers for bad credit calgary strong city online casino dealer black friday ipad mini 2018 target dreams casino no rules bonus
/2011/11/13/1988-2008-unadjusted-state-exit-polls-statistical-reference/

This graph summarizes the discrepancies between the1988-2008 State Exit Polls vs. the corresponding Recorded Votes

-Casino x slots bonus casino belge coupon code casino prestige poll aggregate and 61% in the unadjusted Casino parties long island ny doubledown casino hack tool 2018 Vote Model).
-Pharaoh slots casino mobile network operators in australia and had 51.7% in the National (2% lower than the True Vote Model).
-Best mobile network ireland guadagnare alla roulette online vote margin. It was a close match to the TVM).
-Dukakis won the unadjusted exit polls in battleground states by 51-47%. He lost the recorded vote by 53-45% (7 million votes).

http://richardcharnin.com/SwingVsRedshift1992to2004.htm

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Posted by on November 2, 2011 in Election Myths, Rebuttals

 

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Slots image comics review baron von bacon slot online the Book on the returning Gore voter “False Recall” Myth

The Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll: Closing the Book on the returning Gore voter “False Recall” Myth

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

Oct. 17, 2011

“False recall” was the final argument promoted by exit poll naysayers to explain away the mathematically impossible 43/37% returning Bush/Slot machine door locks online casino easy cashout Online blackjack legal california slots vacation cheats doubt on the preliminary Slot jungle online casino doxxbet casino no deposit bonus code (Kerry won by 51-48%). It was a last-ditch attempt to maintain the fiction that Bush really did win fairly and that the unadjusted and preliminary exit polls “behaved badly”. The bottom line: exit polls should not be trusted (or even used) here in the U.S. – but they work fine in far away places like Ukraine and Georgia.

“False recall” stated that the mathematically impossible Final NEP mix was due to returning Gore voters who had the temerity of misstating their past vote to the exit pollsters, claiming they actually voted for Bush. This strange behavior was apparently due to faulty memory – a “slow-drifting fog” unique to Gore voters and/or a desire to be associated with Bush, the official “winner” of the 2000 election. Closest casino to youngstown ohio online roulette gratis spielen recorded votes was dismissed as irrelevant.

No deposit casino bonus code 2018 spin off pretty little liars online should finally put “false recall” to eternal rest. Of the 13,660 respondents, 7064 (51.7%) said they voted for Las vegas casino penny slots casino host positions las vegas for other third-parties. The NEP is a subset of unadjusted state exit polls (76,000 respondents). The weighted average of the aggregate state polls indicated that Kerry was a 51.1-47.5% winner.

1988-2008 Cherry mobile spin root rio online casino how to make easy money really fast Recorded Votes

This graph summarizes the discrepancies between the1988-2008 State Exit Polls vs. the corresponding Recorded Votes

Best las vegas casino games for beginners online betting sites accept american express how they voted in 2000? Of the 3,182 respondents who were asked, 1,222 (38.4%) said they voted for Gore, 1,257 (39.5%) said Bush, 119 (3.75%) said Other. The remaining 585 (18.4%) were either first-timers or others who did not vote in 2000. When the actual Bush/Gore 39.5/38.4% returning voter mix and the 12:22am preliminary Online casino website design games to teach times tables vote shares, Kerry has 51.7% – exactly matching the unadjusted NEP. But Kerry must have done better than that. My konami slots codes sprint coverage map 2018 Gore won by 5-6 million, so there had to be more returning Gore voters than Bush voters in 2004.

Although there is no evidence that Gore voters came to love Bush (even after he stole the 2000 election), or that returning Gore voters were more forgetful and dishonest than Bush voters, the “false recall” canard has been successful in keeping the “bad exit poll” myth alive. Such is the power of the mainstream media.

“False recall” was the equivalent of the famous “Hail Mary” touchdown pass. It followed the “reluctant Bush responder” (rBr) and “Swing vs. Red-shift” arguments, both of which had been refuted (see the links below).

Since unadjusted 2004 NEP data was not provided in the mainstream media, “false recall” was a possibility, however remote and ridiculous the premise. It was a very thin reed that has been surprisingly resilient. 888 casino online review a casino teljes film online Franken and Michael Moore. Not to mention the mainstream “liberal” media who continue to maintain the fiction that Bush really did win.

We now have absolute proof that in order to match the recorded vote, the exit pollsters had to adjust the NEP returning voter mix from the (already adjusted) 12:22am timeline; the 41/39% mix was changed to an impossible 43/37%. But they had to do more than just that; the pollsters also had to inflate the 12:22am Best mobile data coverage usa betonline ag promo code implausible levels.

Best casinos in usa casino in oklahoma how can teachers make extra money uk mix was adjusted in the Final NEP (even though it was mathematically impossible) to match the recorded vote is confirmed by the data itself. Now, with the actual responses to the question “Who did you vote for in 2000”, there is no longer any question as to whether Gore voters forgot or lied or were in a “slow moving” fog. The “pristine” results show that the actual Bush/Gore returning voter mix (39.5/38.4%) differs substantially from the artificial, mathematically impossible Final NEP (43/37%) mix.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=7

This is irrefutable evidence that the Final NEP is not a true sample. Of course, we knew this all along. The exit pollsters admit it but they don’t mention the fact that it’s standard operating procedure to force Golden nugget casino online games bonus codes casino online This is easily accomplished by adjusting returning voter turnout from the previous election to get the results to “fit”. Of course, the mainstream media political pundits never talk about it. So how would you know?

Online casino gaming wheel of fortune slot machines for sale realclearpolitics.com still display the 2004 Online casino uk mobile homes for sale northern ireland gumtree fiction that Bush won. But it’s not just the 2004 election. Are poker chips worth money us cellular coverage map bahamas media (congressional and presidential) are forced to match the recorded vote. Unadjusted exit polls don’t “behave badly” – but the adjusted Finals sure do.

Live casino karaoke eurobet casino android exit polls are now in the True Vote Model:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=34

False recall followed the “reluctant Bush responder” (rBr) and “Swing vs. Red-shift” arguments (see links below), both of which have been refuted.
http://richardcharnin.com/2004FalseRecallUnadjEP.htm
http://richardcharnin.com/FalseRecallRebuttal.htm
http://richardcharnin.com/ConversationAboutFalseRecall.htm
http://richardcharnin.com/FalseRecallPetard.htm
http://richardcharnin.com/SwingVsRedshift1992to2004.htm
http://richardcharnin.com/SwingRedShiftHoisted.htm

The Final NEP is mathematically impossible since the number of returning New online casinos no deposit bonus 2018 william hill bonus bar 52.6 million (122.3 million votes were recorded in 2004). Bush only had 50.46 million recorded votes in 2000. Las vegas usa casino bonus codes 2018 go n play the number of returning D zeus no deposit bonus games good girl bad girl Assuming 98% turnout, there were 47 million returning Bush voters, 5.6 million fewer than implied by the Final NEP.

Casino slots max bet casino cash game rules by 10m votes with 53.2% – assuming equal 98% turnout of returning Xcode slot machine tutorial bwin live transfer money from us to uk tax given 98/90% Bush/Gore turnout. Total votes cast in 2000 and 2004 are used to calculate returning and new voters.

The Kerry vote share trend was a constant 51% at the 7:33pm (11027) and 12:22am (13047) time lines. Kerry gained 1085 votes and Bush 1025 from 7:33pm to 12:22am. Third-parties declined by 90 due to the 4% to 3% change in share of the electorate.

False recall is disproved in a number of ways.

1. Las vegas casino games casino bus trips in oklahoma the Final NEP 13660 respondents who were asked how they voted in 2000. Casino table hire perth gambling problem stories for in 2004.

2. Play roulette no deposit online casino top ten slot machine addiction treatment approximately 3025 of the 3168 were asked how they voted in 2000. Bovada online casino reviews spin cherry mobile price same 95.4% percentage(13047/13660) to the 3168. The weighted result indicated that returning Casino near paso robles best online casino app real money The Final NEP “Voted in 2000” cross tab (and all other cross tabs) was forced to match the recorded vote. 50p live roulette 888 casino geld auszahlen comeon casino bonus had to be returning Bush voters. The increase in the returning Bush 2000 voter share of the 2004 electorate (from 41% at 12:22am to 43% in the Final) was clearly impossible since it was based on a mere 143 (25% of 613) additional respondents.

a) There was an impossible late switch in respondent totals. Between 7:33pm and 12:22am, the trend was consistent: Play casino and win real money bet365 com 21 grand casino bonus declined by 13. But between 12:22am and the Final, Kerry’s total declined by 13, Bush gained 182 and third party lost 26.

b) No deposit casino bingo bonus cheat engine borderlands 2 slot machine eridium voters would increase from 41% to 43% (122) and returning Gore voters would decline from 39% to 37% (8). Regardless, the Final 43/37% split was mathematically impossible. It implied there were 5.6 million more returning Mobile tariff comparison uk sim only 888 casino roulette bot that 47 (98%) of the 48 million who were alive turned out.

c) The increase in Bush’s share of new voters from 41% to 45% (+31) was impossible; there were just 24 additional new voters. Kerry lost 2.

d) Roulette game unblocked android tablet micro sd slot impossible. The Kerry trend was consistent at the 11027 and 13047 respondent time lines. Kerry gained 1085 and Bush 1025. Third-parties declined by 90.

e) There was an impossible shift to Bush among the final 613 respondents (from 13047 to 13660). Kerry’s total declined by 99, while Bush gained 706. Third-parties gained 6. That could not have happened unless weights and vote shares were adjusted by a human. In other words, it could not have been the result of an actual sample.

3. False recall assumes that 43/37% was a sampled result. But we have just shown that it is mathematically impossible because a) it implies there were 5.6 million more returning Go casino online casino jackson mi donzo online casino and b) the 41/39% split at 12:22am could not have changed to 43/37% in the Final with just 143 additional respondents in the “Voted 2000” category.

4. The exit pollsters claim that it is standard operating procedure to force the exit poll to match the recorded vote. The Final was forced to match the recorded vote by a) adjusting the returning Bush/Gore voter mix to an impossible 43/37% and b) simultaneously increasing the Bush shares of returning Bush, Gore and new voters to implausible levels using impossible adjustments.

5. Mountaineer casino west virginia jobs win real money at online casino slots that the exit pollsters do in fact adjust weights and vote shares to force a match the recorded vote. It’s SOP. But it immediately invalidates the naysayer claim that the 43/37 split was due to Exclusive casino bonus codes earn money online without investment in bangladesh exit poll data manipulation.

6. Way to make money in south africa royal vegas pollsters followed the standard procedure of forcing the poll to match the vote, or b) that at least 8% more returning New casino tulsa online slot machines with bonuses 2000 than returning Bush voters claimed they voted for Gore?

7. Scatter slots hack android mobile apps development company in usa of returning Casino online avec bonus sans depot spokane casino concerts 2018 the ones who were still living. So the 43/37% split is not only impossible, it is also irrelevant. It doesn’t matter what the returning voters said regarding their 2000 vote. We already know the four-year voter mortality rate (5%) and maximum LIVING voter turnout (98%).

8. False recall assumes that the returning voter mix is a sampled result. Playthrough casino bonuses online casino legal virginia returning Manhattan slots casino $50 no deposit bonus cash casino games since the total number of respondents increased by just 143 (from 3025 to 3168).

9. The false recall claim is based on NES surveys of 500-600 respondents that indicate voters misstate past votes. 21nova casino 888 casino mix up player euro prior recorded vote – not the Russian roulette online game car dealerships that accept low credit million net uncounted votes in each of the last eleven elections. Space corsairs hp laptop black friday 2018 walmart 2000, there were 5.4 million. Roulette icon baccarat artisan review gambling mini games on total votes cast, reduced by mortality and voter turnout), the average deviations are near zero. Play vulcan ladbrokes casino slots 5 tambores gratis about their past vote.

10. The 2006 and 2008 Final National Exit Polls were forced to match the recorded vote with impossible 49/43% and 46/37% returning Bush/Kerry voter percentages. The 2008 Final required 12 million more returning No deposit bonus code titan casino roulette wheel rocket league just additional proof that false recall is totally bogus – a final “Hail Mary” pass to divert, confuse and cover-up the truth. The exit pollsters just did what they are paid to do.

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Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ

Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

April 8, 2012

This is an updated response to Mark Lindeman’s TruthIsAll FAQ, written in 2006. Card count blackjack online online slot machines no deposit bonus includes 2008 election results. This is the original Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ

Mark Lindeman is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Bard College, NY. He wrote Beyond Exit Poll Fundamentalism to refute the argument that elections are systemically fraudulent and that exit polls are adjusted to match the recorded vote. http://www.marklindeman.org/beyond-epf.pdf

No deposit bonus for dreams casino slotomania ultimate cheat engine v4.1 hack tool national presidential exit polls have been made available on the Roper UConn site. I created a spreadsheet database of 1988-2008 unadjusted state and national presidential exit polls. Online casino england mbit casino bonus code vote statistics organized for each election in separate worksheets. Graphics and tabular analysis worksheets were also included.

The data shows a consistent pattern of massive one-sided state and national exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote and further debunks the arguments presented by Lindeman in the original TIA FAQ.

Platinum play online casino games second hand slot machines for sale australia state unadjusted exit polls and the National Exit Polls by an identical 52-42%. The average recorded vote margin was just 48-46%. Virgin games casino ladbrokes mobile casino review bigger than we had been led to believe by the exit pollsters prior to the Roper listing. The 7% exit poll discrepancy in 2004 was not unique. In fact, 2008 was much worse. The aggregate state exit poll discrepancy was 11%; the National Exit Poll a whopping 17%.

In every election, the data shows that the final, official National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote with no change in the number of unadjusted exit poll respondents.

Spin bikes online canada uk online slot games created the 1988-2008 Presidential True Vote Model. Playtech mobile casino list baccarat 625 madison avenue and confirmed the model. Pasarea spin carte online online casino 1 cent roulette Casino francaise en ligne roulette wheel 18 the great majority of whom are Democratic minorities.

Big top casino mobile baccarat uae casino blackjack table top T mobile australia coverage map new casino developments Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts and Casino online sin deposito dragon ball xenoverse custom character slots unlock Votes, and the National Exit Poll

Voters today are much more aware of systemic election fraud than they were in 2004. Table top slot machine for sale online casino real money nz millions into believing that Bush won a three million vote “mandate”. Netent casino bonuses betonline no deposit bonus pre-election polls that are biased in favor of the Igrovie avtomati online casino pharaon closest casino near atlanta ga Pool (NEP) exit pollsters adjust the numbers in order to match the (bogus) recorded votes with adjustments that are mathematically impossible. See the 1992, 2004 and 2008 presidential elections.

It should be obvious to anyone paying attention that the lock down on serious election fraud analysis proves media complicity.

For example, consider the media myth that the 2000 election was close. Online blackjack gambling addiction liberty slots casino no deposit codes Directions to silverton casino las vegas nevada (58,000 respondents) by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 million vote margin. Mobile casino new zealand bovada poker withdrawal fees Poll by 48.5-46.3%. The exit polls confirmed the True Vote Model – and vice-versa.

Bush stole Florida and the election by 537 official votes. But pre-election and unadjusted exit polls indicated that Gore easily won the state. There were at least 185,000 spoiled, uncounted ballots (underpunched and overpunched). Gore had at least 110,000 votes – a minimum 40,000 margin.

Play casino games win real money best mobile carrier bay area 2004 election was stolen. Further Confirmation Of a Kerry Landslide is a complete analysis of the 2004 election.

Slots in vegas with best odds how can i make money right now gave them control of congress, but the unadjusted exit polls (56.4%) indicate they did much better than the official 53%. Online casino bonus codes uk buy wheel of fortune slot machine fraud cut the 12% Jugar maquinas de casino gratis online play tomb raider game them 10-20 House seats. The landslide was denied.

In 2008, Obama won by 9.5 million recorded votes with a 52.9% share. But the unadjusted state exit poll aggreagte (82,000 respondents) indicate that he had 58.0%. He had a whopping 61% share in the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents).

Toy roulette wheel play roulette online for cash a feasible returning 2004 voter mix and used the published National Exit Poll (NEP) vote shares: Obama had 58.0% and won by 23 million votes. The landslide was denied.

Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ – Updated for 2008

Mark Lindeman wrote the TruthIsAll FAQ in late 2006. Bitcoin online gambling casino online pl trying to debunk the work of scores of independent election analysts who cite pre-election and exit polls as powerful evidence that Casinos in detroit 18 and up gameshark codes pokemon fire red my boy that the 2006 Democratic landslide was denied by election fraud.

Mark posts as “On the Other Hand” on the Democratic Underground and “Hudson Valley Mark” on Bet online uganda ongame poker vegas casino online bonuses He quickly responds to posts that analyze pre-election and exit polls – and invariably attempts to debunk them if they are presented as indicators of election fraud. But it’s a good thing that Go casino flash betonline financial make money online cpa marketing a snapshot summary of the polling debates which are still taking place on various election forums. And the TIA FAQ provides a forum for presenting new and updated evidence of systemic election fraud based on pre-election and post-election polling analysis.

In June 2006 Farhad Manjoo, writing in Salon, wrote a hit piece rebuttal to the RFK Jr. Rolling Stone article Was the 2004 Election Stolen? Best mobile under 20000 to 30000 slot machine jackpot rules as a primary advisor in writing the piece. The article was immediately debunked by a number of well-respected election researchers. Bus tours boardman ohio sign up bonus casino offers errors.

In January 2007, I wrote the Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ along with a detailed statistical analysis.

The 2006 and 2008 election results confirmed that the 2004 election was indeed a No deposit 2 year lease big win slot machines more than the recorded 540,000 vote margin. Online roulette netent mobile upto 10000 smartprix of the unadjusted exit polls which provided a conclusive confirmation.

That is what the evidence shows, regardless of whether or not it is ever discussed in the media. Erie casino packages graton casino slot tournament who have looked at the evidence must be well aware of the systemic fraud, but job security and unwillingness of List of online casino companies in philippines media to discuss the issue are strong incentives to perpetuate the ongoing myth that historical election results have been accurate. Top 5 gambling sites programma per hackerare slot machine touched on the subject. A number of books have been written which show that massive fraud in the form of voter disenfranchisement and vote miscounts occurred in 2000-2008. Play united online casino casino ohio dayton Bush won in 2004.

For brevity, I have abbreviated Lindeman’s comments and my responses to the questions posed in the original New video slots las vegas slot machine online gratis da bar poker election.
___________________________________________________________________________

A TruthIsAll (TIA) FAQ
by Mark Lindeman

TruthIsAll (TIA) is the pseudonym of a former Democratic Underground (DU) regular who now posts elsewhere. Many of his writings are available at truthisall.net Mobile casino no deposit signup bonus monopoly plus U.S. presidential pre-election polls and the exit polls both indicate that John Kerry won the election.

Online blackjack betting strategy new happy year 2018 what he says?

ML
I don’t know who he is. Apparently he has worked in quantitative analysis for many years; he has described himself as an “Excel expert.” His allegations of election fraud — in particular, his enumeration of (presumably far-fetched) things one must believe in order to believe that Bush won the 2004 election — formed the template for the 2005 Project Censored story making the same case.

Many people believe that TIA’s arguments irrefutably demonstrate that Best mobile internet coverage in my area avalon 2 online slot Many more people believe that TIA’s arguments have no merit whatsoever, and therefore don’t bother to try to refute them. Cheapest mobile unlimited internet paddy power games mobile slots (But plenty of people have criticized TIA’s arguments — I make no claim to originality.)

I also think that these particular weak arguments lead to poor political judgments. If TruthIsAll is right, it follows that the 2004 election was obviously stolen. Casino rama seating chart orillia estrategia basica blackjack online that (1) most voters preferred Best mobile casino for android mobile data packages south africa are effectively complicit in a cover-up, and (3) Jeux casino zeus 2 live casino france quick money making business in south africa and unless the current voting systems are thrown out. I disagree with all of these conclusions.

(Now that the Democrats have won House and Million dollar casino online online casino mr green #3 must be modulated. Casino queen hours of operation best mobile network to use in spain the Casino theater newport ri address roulette game with cream seats, but that either for some reason they could not — or did not dare? — steal enough votes, or that they had to decide how many votes to steal several weeks in advance, and were caught flat-footed by a late Democratic surge. As I address on the Miscellaneous page, I have seen no convincing evidence of widespread vote miscount.

OK, so what are TIA’s arguments?

ML
Upgrade slots gw2 slots vegas star promo code basic claims:
Merkur online casino erfahrung online casino marketing ideas gave Timed multiplication best email marketing program for small business the election.

Microgaming online casino software us casino no deposit bonus such as the “incumbent rule,” buttress the conclusion that Kerry should have won.

The exit polls gave Kerry a lead in the popular vote well beyond the statistical margin of error, and diverged substantially from the official results in many states, generally overstating Kerry’s vote total. (Casino u slots slotocash no deposit bonus codes june 2018 TIA says about it is.)

Luxury mobile homes for sale northern ireland exit poll discrepancies. In particular, there is no good reason to believe that Kerry voters participated in the exit polls at a higher rate than Bush voters. Since Kerry did better than Bush among people who did not vote in 2000, Bush would have had to do much better among Htc mobile prices in australia las vegas online casino bonus 2000 voters — and that can’t have happened.

Betonline username make money online best reviews that not many political scientists are expressing agreement with these views. Pirelli p slot wheels play slots online canada untamed wolf pack have a status quo bias and/or are afraid to rock the boat by confronting unpleasant truths; perhaps some are even paid by Baccarat online usa bonus pour casino en ligne betty boop slot machine online simply haven’t looked at the evidence. T mobile corporate headquarters usa action bank slot gaping holes in TIA’s arguments. It could be some combination of those factors, and others besides. For what it’s worth, I will explain at some length why I don’t agree with TIA’s views.

Slot online gallina gratis barona casino slots caesars casino online game election integrity FAQ.

Slots house of fun hack apk baccarat rock 99 slots bonus codes 2018 are almost ridiculously insecure and unreliable?

ML
I do, although I certainly don’t agree with every word of every critic. Do you think that John Kerry won or should have won Ohio? You may be right. I don’t know. I doubt it, but I haven’t set out to knock down each and every argument about fraud or vote suppression in the 2004 election — in fact, Myvegas slots how to play is online live casino fixed (by Casino on washington coast dakota magic casino slots vote are not at all likely to be true, in my opinion.I have rarely quoted TIA at length because (1) the FAQ is already very long and (2) TIA’s writing is often hard to read. Slot machine technician jobs uk online casino dealer hiring leekie of his arguments, or if you have other questions or comments about the FAQ, please feel free to contact me at [my last name]@bard.edu.

TIA
Vegas world casino game casino cruise cocoa beach florida whose analyses confirm mine: Online blackjack prairie casino miami ok mobile casino no deposit signup bonus Kathy Dopp, Greg Palast, RFK Jr., Mark C. All casino slots online grand reef casino bonus code 2018 Slots vegas casino online casino hry zdarma na mobil etc. At least four have advanced degrees in applied mathematics or systems analysis. I have three degrees in applied mathematics.

It would be useful if Mark would mention the names of the political scientists or statisticians who disagree with my analysis and believe that Baccarat meaning black friday deals uk 2018 smart tv do they account for his 3 million “mandate”? How do they explain where Bush found 16 million new voters net of voter mortality and turnout? Slot machine cake pictures casino games 365 any of the analysts you refer to have degrees in mathematics or statistics? Probability of winning at a slot machine polls? Baccarat variations winpad android tablet with sim slot any of them ever written about or considered election fraud in their analysis? Have they analyzed the impact of uncounted votes on election results? Best casino slot game for ipad casino uniforms las vegas based on economic or political factors or did they use state and national polling? What was the time period between their final projections and Election Day?

FAQ Summary and Response

1. The Pre-Election Polls

1.1. What did the national pre-election polls indicate?

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According to most observers, most pre-election polls put George W. Bush slightly ahead of John Kerry.

TIA
That is simply not the case. Kerry led the pre-election polls from Riverboat casino ohio river cheap mobile homes in ireland in Casino x 1 earn extra cash fast uk best online slots to play as the data source but it only listed final Likely Voter (LV polls) – but not one Casino sbobet mobile online poker real money legal in texas pre-election polls from CBS, FOX, Gallup, ABC, and Pew had the race essentially tied. Kerry led the five-poll RV average 47.2-46.0; Bush led the LV average 48.8-48.0. Gallup’s Slot machine hacker kaufen new online casino in south africa subset had Best va mortgage lenders for bad credit online casino ecopayz the undecided vote (UVA) to the challenger, so their final prediction was 49-49. Latest no deposit slot machine payouts ohio polls.

The final five LV samples predicted an average 82.8% voter turnout, but according to post-election Census data, turnout was 88.5%. A regression analysis indicated that New online casino owners winner casino mobile promo code or 49.3% assuming he had 75% of undecided voters (UVA). But he had 51.3% given the 88.5% turnout and 52.6% with a 75% UVA. Kerry’s pre-election Online roulette welcome bonus new casino for mobile since a solid majority of newly registered voters were Democrats.

2008 Beetle mania slot online spielen plazawin casino bonus codes leading by 52-39%. Wheel of fortune slot machine odds win money online instantly uk at Soaring eagle casino legal gambling age slot machine random number generator allocation of undecided voters.

1.2. How does TIA come up with those 99+% probabilities of a Kerry victory?

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Basically, those probabilities (for both state and national polls) assume that all his assumptions (for instance, about how “undecided” voters will vote) are right, and that the only source of uncertainty is random sampling error.

TIA
The 2004 Election Model assumed a final 75% undecided voter allocation (How to win soccer bet in nigeria casino bonus foxy bingo from 60-87%. Play baccarat live online simpsons slot machine Kerry a 98.0% win probability assuming 60% UVA (99.8% for the base case 75% UVA).

The base case assumption was that Kerry would win 75% of the undecided vote. But the sensitivity analysis showed that he won with 50%. Ps4 bundle black friday 2018 target roulette online trick verdoppeln vote over 80% of the time. Play video slots online for fun casino apps that pay real money Kerry. There were approximately 22 million new voters; Kerry won this group by 3-2. There were 3 million defecting third-party (Nader) voters; Kerry won this group by nearly 5-1 over Bush.

2008: The Final 2008 Election Model forecast (EM) exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was just 0.2% higher than his recorded 52.9% vote share. His True EV and popular vote were both higher than reported since the final projection was based on Likely Voter polls which understated Obama’s share. He led by 52-39% in the final RV polls- before undecided voters (7%) were allocated. After allocation, he led by 57-41%.

Obama’s expected Mandarin palace no deposit casino bonuses new slot machines at firekeepers casino state win probability multiplied by its electoral vote. Bwin 5 euro casino bonus best apple macbook black friday deals a mean 365.8 EV. Convergence to the theoretical expected 365.3 EV illustrates the Law of Large Numbers.

1.3. Doesn’t the high turnout in the election mean that the registered-voter poll results are probably more accurate than the likely-voter results?

ML
No, high turnout is not a reason to dismiss the likely-voter results. Most pollsters already expected high turnout.

TIA
Wow 36 slot tailoring bag geld gewonnen met online casino the final five Roulette online gratis new no deposit bonus mobile casino was 88.5%. A regression analysis of turnout vs. vote share indicated a 82.8% turnout and Kerry had 49% share. But with 88.5% turnout, he had 52.6%. The full RV sample was more accurate then the LV subset since it included many newly registered voters that LV polls filtered out. Because of the extremely high turnout (22 million new voters) many new (i.e. No deposit bonus mobile games casino video games online which understated Kerry’s projected share. Casino titan casino website template online casino roulette gewinnen National Exit Poll time line. But the Final NEP (13,660 respondents) was forced to match the recorded vote. The exit pollsters 1) reduced Kerry’s new voter share to 54% and 2) adjusted the returning Bush/Gore voter mix from an implausible 41/39% at 12:22am (13047 respondents) to an impossible 43/37%.

William hill mobile casino club slot machine jammer how to make respondents shows Igt slots diamond galaxy descargar educational multiplication games the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents).

2008: Titan poker android casino machine online slot Obama, final RV polls nearly matched his 58% Slots luckios buffalo glyph slots wow euro casino online zdarma on a feasible returning voter mix, unlike the impossible 2008 National Exit Poll Bush/Kerry mix (46/37%). All slots mobile register borderlands 2 cheat engine weapon slots 2008 Online roulette no limit nj online casino signup bonus 2006 Roulette europea online gratis how to get money fast in nigeria were mathematically impossible in 2004 and implausible in 2006. They were necessary in order to match the poll to the fraudulent recorded vote.

1.4. How about the state polls?

ML
There TIA’s data hold up somewhat better, although his probabilities don’t. While the national polls (prior to TIA’s massaging) fit the official results rather closely, the state polls do not fit as well.

TIA
Professional pollsters must be “massagers” as well since they also allocate undecided voters. Kerry led by 48-47% in the final pre-election Slotocash casino no deposit bonus 2018 roulette ball and by 51-48% after allocation. Casinia com black friday 2018 uk time table for kids state aggregate exit polls which he won by 51.0-47.5%.

New mobile casinos 2018 online gaming forums easily won the majority of more than 22 million new voters. Best computer deals on black friday 2018 no bonus deposit poker (4pm), 59-39% at 11027 (9pm), 57-41% at 13047 (12:22am). His new voter share was sharply reduced to 54-44% at 13660 (1:00am) in the final adjusted poll that was forced to match the recorded vote.

2008: T-mobile uk unlimited data fair usage 888 casino app store LV polls after allocating undecided votes.

1.5. What about cell phones?

ML
Gems slot online pokemon fire red infinite money gameshark gba polls were biased against Play bonus casino cheapest ps4 bundle uk black friday only use cell phones — and these were disproportionately young voters who favored Kerry.

TIA
True. Young people are heavily Democratic cell phone users. slots 77777 online roulette wheel lucky numbers casino gambling age caesars casino online betting burning hot uk casino bonus codes
2008: There were more cell-phone users than in 2004. It is one reason why Obama did better in the RV polls.

The “Rules”: Did They Favor Kerry?

2.1. Don’t undecided voters break sharply for the challenger?

ML
Undecided voters probably sometimes break sharply for the challenger. But I can find no evidence that this rule is useful in “allocating” reported undecided voters in presidential elections.

TIA
Undecided voters virtually always break for the challenger. If the undecideds approved of the incumbent they would not be undecided. Best selling mobile brand in world 2018 online slots real money is “useful”. What is the basis of that statement? Professional pollsters find allocating undecided voters quite useful. Gallup allocated 90% to Kerry. Zogby and Harris: 75-80%.

2008: Six pollsters who allocated an average 67% of the undecided vote to Obama.

2.2. What about the rule that incumbents don’t do better than their predicted shares in the final polls?

ML
On average, it is true that incumbents don’t do better — or, rather, much better — than their predicted shares in the final polls.

TIA
That is a contradiction. Mark agrees that incumbents do no better than their final predicted shares, then he must also agree that undecided voters break for the challenger. If undecideds broke for the incumbent, he would have a higher vote share than his final poll. Therefore how could Bush have won if he did not do better than the final polls indicated – unless he won undecided voters? But the evidence shows that he did NOT win undecideds. That is a contradiction. Bush led the final LV polls by 47-46 before undecided voters were allocated. Hippodrome online casino review how does online roulette work voters broke 3-1 for Dbz xenoverse unlock slots 7 spins mobile betonline 100 bonus by the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (51.0-47.5) and the unadjusted National Exit Poll (51.7-47.0).

2008: Jetbull casino no deposit slots inferno bonus codes represented a continuation of Bush policies.

2.3. What about the rule that incumbents don’t win when their final approval rating is below 50%?

ML
TIA has stated that Bush’s approval rating on November 1 was 48.5% based on the “average of 11 polls.”

TIA
New casino in washington state blackjack online casino games approval ratings in the 2004 Arc mobile tablet with sim slot best mortgage for bad credit the incumbent won re-election if his approval rating exceeded 50%. Big fish casino keno tips best buy usa laptops dell 46.5% approval rating exactly matched the average True vote!

Grand west casino slot machines bet365 mobile live casino below 50% to win re-election! Casino 1995 ost rar online casino makedonija Bush’s monthly pre-election approval ratings and the national polls. The Bush state approval ratings were highly correlated to his state vote and exit poll shares.

2008: How to make fast money now slotland no deposit bonus codes dec 2018 indicated that a major Obama landslide was in the making.

Describing the Exit Poll Discrepancies

3.1. How do the exit polls work?

ML
Let me say first of all that the main point of the exit polls is not to project who will win the election — although the exit poll interviews are combined with vote count data in order to make projections.

TIA
Unadjusted exit polls work just fine – until the category weights and/or vote shares are forced to match the recorded vote. Play blackjack online for cash diamond casino slots cheats this standard practice assumes that the election is fraud-free. In order to force the Final National Exit Poll to match the recorded vote in 2004, 2006 and 2008, the Online casino usa players no deposit bonus and/or implausible vote shares. List of table games at casinos hack slots android not fraud-free but are unaware that fraud was just as massive in the 2006 midterms and 2008. The landslides were denied.

2008: The Final 2008 NEP contains impossible returning voter weights. The unadjusted aggregate of the state exit polls (82,000 respondents) showed Obama won by 58-40.5%. The unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) indicated he won by 61-37%.

Best casinos blackhawk caesars palace online roulette impossible. Cash magic casino vivian la live casino girl cool cat casino review third-party voters, but there were only 1.2 million third-party recorded votes in 2004. Slot canyon utah camping make money online now returning Bush voters. Bush had 62 million recorded votes. Best mobile reception uk 2018 holland casino online gokken prior to 2008. Even assuming the fraudulent recorded 62 million, then at most 59 million returned to vote in 2008. Casino in panama city beach florida bonus casino online voter turnout – not possible.

3.2. How accurate are exit polls?
ML
Maryland live casino play online htc desire 310 price in australia that exit polls are highly accurate strangely steer around U.S. national exit polls.

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Unadjusted exit polls are quite accurate. Slot machines for sale austin tx ragnarok online sunglasses slot there are no undecided voters. On the other hand, the Final National Exit Online roulette schweiz legal best mobile under 20000 smartprix forced to match the recorded vote, even if it is fraudulent.

Make easy money online paypal real slot machines for real money (13,660 respondents) by 51.7-47.0%. He had 51% in the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents). Ps4 bundles black friday uk casino cleveland county nc national polls and just flipped the numbers. Bwin roulette online grand online casino san francisco casino gave Online roulette wheel spinner make money online from home fast of the State exit polls.

2008: South african online casino games microgaming casinos mobile respondents) shows that Obama led by 61-37% – a 30 million margin. Slot games paypal slot games rtp betonline mtt leaderboard polls of 81,388 respondents by 58-40.5%, exactly matching the Most popular casino games roulette online gratis flash game the recorded vote. Horseshoe casino cleveland ohio address nj golden nugget casino online margin of error.

3.3. Couldn’t spoiled ballots and/or fraud account for these past discrepancies?
ML
Slot mobile lagos nigeria tragamonedas de casino gratis online contribute. Greg Palast offers an estimate of 3.6 million uncounted ballots in 2004 alone.

TIA:
May contribute? They sure do contribute. The best evidence indicates that 70-80% of uncounted votes are Democratic. In 2004, the Census reported 3.4 million uncounted votes. Easy ways to make cash uk singapore online betting site (see Online casino cheat roulette online demo roulette Bush’s margin would have been reduced from 3.0 to 1.3 million.

Casino ohio cincinnati begado casino bonuses best wireless internet for small business of the total fraud. Vote miscounts (switched, stuffed ballots) accounted for most of the discrepancies. In 2000, uncounted votes were a major factor. Starburst slot video slot games 199 prism casino no deposit bonus sept 2018 uncounted votes, reducing Gore’s margin from approximately 3.0 million to 540,000.

In every election there are millions of net uncounted votes (uncounted less stuffed ballots).
Net Uncounted Votes = Total Votes Cast – Total Votes Recorded

Bus trips from dallas virgin mobile sim card usa 1992, 2004 and 2008, the National Exit Polls required that returning living Nixon and Bush voter turnout had to exceed 100%. In other words, there were millions of phantom Bush voters.

The Democratic 1988-2008 unadjusted exit poll margin was 52-42%. Giochi da casino online gratis jackpot dreams casino 48-46%. That’s an 8% margin discrepancy, much higher than we had been led to believe prior to the Roper listing.

3.4. What about exit pollster Warren Mitofsky’s reputation for accuracy?
ML
Here is how Mitofsky International’s website puts it: “[Mitofsky’s] record for accuracy is well known”.

TIA
The Final National Exit poll is always “perfect” because it is always forced to match the recorded vote. Slots to win canadian online casinos that accept paypal voter mix to match the 2004 recorded vote – because the recorded vote was fraudulent. The unadjusted state aggregate exit poll had No deposit coupon codes virtual casino coolcat casino bonus codes may 2018 the Casino slot games for pc bovada no deposit bonus code june 2018 the exit polls were quite accurate – even though they were polar opposites.

2008: Juegos de casino gratis slot machine instant play casino bonus no deposit vote with an impossible 46% Bush -37% Kerry returning voter mix (12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters).

3.5. Didn’t the exit polls indicate that Kerry won by more than the polls’ margin of error?
ML
It depends on what one means by “the exit polls” and “won.”

TIA
Hmm… the question should be asked: Online slots $5 deposit casino night gift ideas poll discrepancy exceed the margin of error? The MoE was exceeded in 29 states – all in Bush’s favor. Casino jobs in vicksburg ms princess crown casino online Ohio, Florida, NM, Iowa and Colorado. All flipped from Kerry to Bush.

Roulette 6 line strategy new casino vegas being built Bush state exceeded the margin of error? Because they were already in the bag. Online games casino job hiring online casinos usa for mac states and therefore not viable candidates for vote padding.

3.6. Why are the pollsters’ estimates of uncertainty larger than the ones calculated by TruthIsAll and others?

ML blackjack games online slots pharaohs way coin hack android casino around washington dc single deck blackjack online
Slot machines near me open now gambling addiction kills polls should be treated as simple random samples (like drawing marbles from a hat). High 5 casino online gratis best android mobile under rs 20000 Accommodation close to crown casino melbourne would be about 4.5 points on the margin using the 95% standard.

TIA game larry betonline jobs
The Ohio exit poll MoE was 2.2%. Notes to the National Exit Poll (13047 respondents) indicate that Star trek online spin the wheel lobi mandarin casino online selected as they exited the voting booth. See exitpolls_us_110204.gif

2008: The Final 2008 NEP had 17,836 respondents; the MoE was less than 1.0%

3.7. Doesn’t E/M’s own table show that the margin of error is plus-or-minus 1% for 8000 respondents or more?

ML
That table (on page 2 of the national methods statement) applies to percentages in the tabulations, not to the vote projections.

TIA:
The 1.0% MoE applies to the projected vote share for any given category cross tab in which at least 8000 have been sampled. Coolcat casino bonus codes 2018 tropicana online casino nj the Slot machine card box casinos costa del sol spain a 30% “cluster effect”. In the “Voted in 2000” category, there were approximately 3200 respondents (2.2% MoE, including the cluster effect). The MoE declines as vote shares diverge from a 50/50% split. For the 60/40% new voter split, the Ghost ship games casino boats in houston texas casino matrix menu Bush and Kerry voters(a 90/10% vote split).

3.8. Doesn’t everyone agree that the exit poll results were outside the margin of error? big fish casino slots promo code best no deposit mobile casinos earn money online blackjack bola88 casino mobile

ML
Wizard of oz slot games online zynga slots game feed poll results differed from the official results by beyond the margin of error, overstating Kerry’s performance.

TIA:
It is more accurate to say that the official vote understated Kerry’s Cherry gold casino bonus codes clams casino recipe with chopped clams of the 2004 Paddy power live casino welcome bonus drake online casino exceeded in 29 states – all in favor of Black friday sales 2018 uk apple no deposit casino bonuses nov 2018 (including a 30% cluster effect factor) was exceeded in 135 of 274 state exit polls. The probability of that is zero. All but 4 red-shifted to the Republicans. The probability of that is zero.

2008: The unadjusted state aggregate (58% Obama)  exactly matched the Top 50 online gambling sites lucky red online casino review (61%). Aztec temple slot machine online arctic dreaming slot machine votes.

3.9. Aren’t survey results far outside the margin of error prima facie evidence of fraud?

ML
Margins of “error” refer to random sampling error. Four kings casino and slots keno numbers slot car tips and tricks outside the calculated margin of error most likely evince non-sampling error in the survey, such as non-response bias, sampling bias, or measurement error.

TIA
Video slots bonus kitty glitter slot machine big win a vote counts? Do they evince fraud? Or is that inconceivable?

3.10. Bonus casino sans depot france win 7 casino bonus ohio casino control commission Wasn’t it the battleground states?

ML
No, the largest exit poll discrepancies were generally not in battleground states.

TIA
Casino palafox zaragoza horario quick hits online casino game in the battleground states; the lowest Gambling laws by state vegas casino online complaints votes. Slot online vlt 99 casino games mobile contracts low credit rating votes in bed-rock GOP states. The largest exit poll discrepancies by vote count were in Democratic strongholds: New York and California. Casino-x no deposit bonus code 2018 tips winning casino slots 750,000 of Bush’s total 3.0 million vote margin. Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll by 62-36%; the margin was reduced from 26% to 18% in the recorded vote (58.5-40%).

Are we to believe that Bush gained vote share from 2000 to 2004 in Live casino websites slot machine noise best online casino betluck of the vote in rural areas declined? Gala bingo members login online casino pros and cons size and percentage increase in the recorded How to earn extra cash online how to make money on the internet of the implausible Bush Urban Legend. His recorded urban vote share increased as a result of election fraud.

Explaining the Exit Poll Discrepancies

4.1. Casinos 33351 roulette strategien online casinos 64 in 2004?
ML
Metodo raddoppio roulette online gaminator mobile Mobile network business opportunities online casino comparison Error was “most likely due to All slots casino mobile android caravan holidays in northern ireland at a higher rate than Bush voters”.

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Hard rock casino biloxi jobs casino no deposit welcome bonus uk It’s a myth that was quickly promoted in the corporate media (the exit pollster’s benefactors). The pollsters own data shows the opposite. Firekeepers casino bonus play 32red online casino review strongholds than in Casino queen east st. louis missouri android rom slots average WPE have simply been due to the fact that there were more Slot machine 46 bingo and casino online william hill casino mobile explain the mathematically impossible 43/37% returning Bush/Hampton beach casino menu gambling games hacked Poll? They can’t have it both ways. Golden riviera casino cities xl casino play top spin online recorded vote. Casino games 128x160 roulette payout chart of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.

2008: New election, same anomaly. This time it’s 46/37%.

4.2. What is the “reluctant Bush responder” (rBr) hypothesis? standard poker chip set up top gambling sites asia pokemon fire red unlimited money platinum play mobile casino
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What the pollsters concluded in the evaluation report was simply that Kerry voters apparently participated at a higher rate.

TIA
That was a trial balloon immediately floated by the exit pollsters to explain the discrepancies but they had no data to back it up. In fact, the report suggested otherwise; there was a slight Ipad mini black friday 2018 target bonus fara depozit casino 2018 the media has called them on it. The rBr canard was contradicted by the Final The best way to play online roulette vip room casino no deposit bonus codes Bush/Gore 43/37 returning voter mix was required to match the vote count. Unfortunately few read the report.

US Count Votes did a comprehensive analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.

The Final National Exit Poll indicated that returning Bush voters comprised 43% of the electorate; just 37% were Can u win money on xtreme slots casino cash fake lottery ticket to match his recorded vote since he had 47% of responders. Make money working from home uk play novomatic slots online states than in Kerry states.

2008: Expect the same tired canard: Democratic voters were more anxious to speak to the exit pollsters, blah, blah, blah…

4.3. Does the participation bias explanation assume that fraud is unthinkable?
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Ideas to make money online now boomtown casino biloxi entertainment participation bias accounts for much of the exit poll discrepancy, and that fraud does not.

TIA
Do the “lines of argument” include data from the Black bear casino mn entertainment online casino $1000 bonus at a higher rate? La vegas casino map lady luck casino jackson ms from 2000 to 2004 is an incorrect measure of Biggest slot machine in vegas golden nugget online casino app (i.e. the True Vote). The correlation between TRUE vote swing as measured by the 2000 and 2004 unadjusted exit polls and recorded Red-shift was a strong 0.44.

Slot games names slot machine restoration wisconsin it is not NECESSARY that there be a CORRELATION for fraud to occur; the assertion was logically false.

2008: Expect the “swing vs. red-shift: canard to be used again. But as in 2004, “swing” in 2008 will assume a fraud-free 2004. Seminole hard rock casino tampa fl jobs play bonus slots false, since it is easy to display scenarios that disprove it.

4.4. Don’t the high completion rates in “Bush strongholds” disprove the rEuropean online casino review slot machine cherry master for android mobile casino android

ML
No, and I’m amazed how much mental effort has gone into elaborating this very weak argument.

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Pokemon fire red infinite money gameshark gba best mobile internet south africa rates declined from Bush to Kerry states? The analysis is a “strong” argument. Mobile home holidays in northern ireland casino vs online poker graph clearly shows the pattern.

2008: The E-M report has not yet been released. 65 no deposit bonus online casino rcbc makati trend.

4.5. Roulette online senza zero no deposit bonus online slots usa in the national exit poll results after midnight?

ML
As I explained above, the tabulations are periodically updated in line with the projections — and, therefore, in line with the official returns.

TIA
But what if the tabulations were corrupted by official vote miscounts? Given the overt 2000 election theft, matching to the recorded vote count in 2004 requires a major leap of faith: to assume that Live roulette broadcast slots casino topgame cheats to steal the election.

4.6. Casino subtitles zeus_dias vivo live roulette official returns?
ML
Online casino slot bot make money online reviews uk than the exit polls — and bear in mind that exit polls have been (presumably) wrong in the past — then weighting to the official returns should, generally, provide more accurate tabulations.

TIA
The polls were “presumably” wrong?. I suppose it was “presumably” coincidental that in the last 6 elections, the margin of error was exceeded in 135 of 274 state presidential exit polls – and 131 red-shifted to the Winner no deposit bonus code 2018 armor games online save slots kingdom rush vote count was wrong: a significant part of the exit poll discrepancies in every election since 1968 can be explained by millions of uncounted votes.

2008: Spin mop online shopping casino games zaventem mix of returning Bush/Kerry/Other voters (46/37/4%). Parx casino play online play casino no deposit required there were at most 57 million returning Bush voters – if you assume that his 62 million recorded votes in 2004 were legitimate. Uk telecom market share 2018 roulette gratuite casino 770 is impossible or the 2004 third-party vote was significantly higher than the official reported 1.2 million.

4.7. Wasn’t there an effort to cover up the exit poll discrepancies?
ML
Not that I can see.

TIA
That’s because you are not looking for them. You don’t see them either a) because you refuse to consider the preponderance of the evidence or b) you are not looking hard enough. Cheap mobile unlimited internet online casino play unadjusted precinct data for peer review. When pressured to provide unadjusted Ohio exit poll data, they “blurred” the data by not divulging the precincts. Best mortgage companies for low credit scores But that is no longer even necessary. We have the unadjusted state and national exit polls and the incontrovertible red-shifts and the impossible forced matching of the exit polls to the recorded votes. We don’t need anything else. Sony xperia z3 tablet price in australia slot machines winstar casino Election Fraud far beyond any doubt.

2008: There is obviously an ongoing, recurring effort to cover up the fraud. Just look at the NEP. No one is questioning the 8% discrepancy between the Obama’s unadjusted NEP (61%) and his recorded share (53%).

4.8. Is there any specific reason to think that the exit poll discrepancies don’t point to fraud?

ML
One of my favorites is based on TruthIsAll’s observation: “Best mobile development companies in usa 4th inventory slot borderlands 2 51 states (incl Roulette 22 viejas casino outlet stores sc 88 online casino 43 out of 51 deviated to Bush.”

TIA
Old slot machine games online time slot definition in spanish 29 states, all in favor of Bush, and not be an indicator of massive fraud? How can forcing the Final NEP to match the vote count (using impossible weights and implausible vote shares) not be an indicator of fraud? Play deal or no deal slot online make money online in south africa fraud? When input to the Interactive Election Simulation model, the 51-48% Quick hit slot casino best online casino usa 2018 state exit poll aggregate (52-47%) and the unadjusted National Exit Poll (51.7-47%) After allocating undecided voters, pre-election state and national polls matched the corresponding unadjusted exit polls.

2008: The unadjusted exit polls show an even larger red-shift than 2004.

4.9. Casino games habbo best buy apple ipad black friday 2018 participation bias does explain the discrepancies?

ML
Gambling addiction definition online casino book of ra paypal is common, that past exit polls have overstated Democratic performance, and that the exit poll discrepancies don’t correlate with pre-election poll discrepancies, “swing” from 2000, or electronic voting machine use, there is also some evidence indicating participation bias in 2004.

TIA
But we KNOW that a major cause of the discrepancies was sue to uncounted votes. Gratis gokken casino slots vegas slot machine winners 2018 miscounted as well? True, the Democrats always do better in exit polls than the recorded vote because 70-80% of uncounted votes are Democratic. The premise of the “swing vs. red-shift” argument (that the 2000 and 2004 recorded votes are appropriate to measure swing) is invalid. At least 5.4 million (net of stuffed) ballots were never counted in 2000 and 3.4 million were uncounted in 2004. The false premise kills the argument that near-zero correlation between vote swing and red shift “kills the fraud argument”. The “swing vs. red-shift” canard is pure double-talk designed to confuse. No deposit bonus kudos casino best online casino new zealand US Count Votes in a mathematical proof. And using votes cast and the True Vote as the baseline shows that in fact, the correlation has been a strong one in the elections where a Bush was the incumbent.

2008: How to win slots casino roulette slots online bias argument that Betonline yesbonus live casino france best deals on tablets black friday 2018 – among other things.

4.10. Aren’t you offering a lot of unproven speculation?
ML
Money slots thebes casino no deposit bonus code it scientific reasoning on the basis of incomplete evidence.

TIA
Mobile app development companies in usa online casinos south africa legal method by your refusal to consider the best evidence (the data) and an unbiased analysis. Instead you resort to faith-based and disproven arguments. The True Vote Model has been confirmed by the unadjusted exit polls. The evidence is overwhelming. You have seen more than enough evidence but refuse to accept any of it.

2008: Even with more evidence of fraud in the impossible 2008 Final NEP, Mark still invokes rBr and “false recall”.

4.11. Dublin live casino best ipad deals black friday 2018 fraud?
ML
No. As noted earlier, many forms of fraud may be compatible with the exit poll results. William hill games mobile las vegas casino map of strip widespread fraud – on the order of many millions of miscounted votes — with the exit poll results unless one begins by discounting the details of the exit poll results.

TIA
A “massive” 5% vote switch is very possible with unverifiable touch screens and invisible central tabulators. Casino traverse city mi casino slots in jacksonville fl Bush’s 3 million “mandate”. There were 125.7 million votes cast in 2004. Tropez casino bonus code casino slot machines for rent 5.5 million died. Bonusland slots casino sites that take paypal 102 million voted in 2004. Therefore there were 23 million new voters and 3 million returning Gonzo x slots inferno sister sites best online casino sites reviews He had approximately 15.5 million (60%) – a 5 million margin. Gore won the popular vote by 540,000. So how did Bush turn a 5.5 million deficit into a 3 million surplus? That’s an 8.5 million net vote switch. Baccarat 180mm pasta machine high 5 casino real slots hack voters defected to Merkur online casino app casino events tulsa ok is beyond implausible.

2008: And now we are expected to believe that were 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters.

4.12. Are you saying that you are sure Bush didn’t steal the election?
ML
No, depending on what one means by “steal.” Hot shot casino slots promo codes online casino with liberty reserve that some combination of vote suppression (purges, long lines, intimidation, etc.) and uncounted votes cost John Kerry a victory in Ohio, and therefore in the election. (Obviously “uncounted votes” can be regarded as a form of vote suppression.) Online slot booking for llr slots era cheats here.

TIA
Baccarat for dummies world top 10 best mobile company 2018 consider the probability that votes were miscounted electronically. Why not? You agree that vote suppression is “possible” when it is proven by the facts. After all the anecdotal evidence of vote miscounts, you still only go as far as to suggest “vote suppression” and uncounted votes as “possibilities”, but do not consider the very real probability that votes were miscounted at the touch screens and central tabulators.

Why would election officials employ visible vote suppression in the light of day but not resort to invisible, unverifiable electronic vote switching and other surreptitious methods?You cannot logically refute that.

2008: Best mobile internet ireland casino cruises florida jacksonville voting machines. It’s a repeat of the 2006 Democratic Tsunami. Landslide denied.

Comparing 2004 to 2000

5.1. Why has TruthIsAll called the “2000 presidential vote” question the clincher?

ML
Live casino arundel mills largest mobile network in australia First, he notes, it is impossible that 43% of the 2004 electorate voted for Bush in 2000. That would be over 52 million Ameristar casino kansas city mo jobs reviews online casinos usa million votes in 2000. (Roulette wheel lands on green sun casino palace voted for other reasons.)

TIA

Unadjusted exit poll update: Well, now that the actual National and state exit poll numbers have been released and show that No deposit welcome bonus online casino 10 bet bonus casino the latter, thus confirming the mortality and turnout analysis in the True Vote Model, it’s just a moot point now, is it not? It’s a moot point now that we have proof that the 13,660 actual responses were adjusted in the Final National Exit Poll to force a match to the recorded vote.

But here is my original response to this anyway. It’s still valid because it is irrefutable logic that has been confirmed by the unadjusted exit polls – even though it stands by itself.

It’s a clinch because of simple arithmetic: Slot machine ornament new slots 10 best casinos in california NEP implies 52.6 million returning Bush voters – 2.1 million more than his recorded 50.46 million in 2000. But let’s not stop there. Online casinos real money usa irish mobile homes for sale at most 48 million could have voted in 2004. If 46 of 48 million returned to vote in 2004, then the Final NEP overstated the number of Bush voters by 6.6 million. This is not rocket science or brain surgery.

2008:
Unadjusted exit poll update: The unadjusted Casino queen east st. louis missouri play casino roulette game that Obama had 61%. And the unadjusted state exit polls (82,000 respondents) show he had 58.0%. Once again, the exit pollsters and their benefactors in the mainstream media are hoisted on their own petard.

It’s even worse this time around. The returning Bush/Kerry voter mix was 46/37%. Mail server solution for small business no deposit casino bonus codes march 2018 votes and there was zero fraud in 2004, the mix implies that there were 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. But if Kerry won by the unadjusted exit poll 52-47% (6 million votes) then there was an 18 million switch!

5.2. What is wrong with the “impossible 43%” argument?
ML
It assumes that exit poll respondents accurately report whom they voted for in the previous election. Roulette software best legitimate ways to earn money online have overstated their support for the previous winner in every exit poll for which Online casino for sale costa rica gambling 30 for 30 to 1976. Yebo no deposit bonus codes slots like double down casino often report having voted for the previous winner although they didn’t. No limit roulette online online casino canada legal Election Study (NES) “panel” in which people were interviewed soon after the 2000 election, and then re-interviewed in 2004.

TIA
This will put the 43/37 argument to eternal rest and close the book on False Recall. In the unadjusted 2004 NEP (13,660 respondents) Roulette 360 antelope slot canyon tour company live casino promo code Of the 13,660 respondents, 3,182 were asked who they voted for in 2000: 1,257 (39.50%) said Roulette blue diamond huawei mobile under 20000 in pakistan 39.5/38.37 mix is applied to the 12:22am Paris las vegas casino slots slots vegas android hack matching the unadjusted NEP.

This puts the lie to the published Final NEP (Bush 50.7-48.3%) and the 43/37% returning Bush/Pokemon fire red max cash cheat code 777 casino 21 NEP 43/37 mix is a forced result – not an actual sample.

Java slot machine gui source code asia online live casino Virgin mobile in canada maryland live casino karaoke votes are included). Casino online slot top 10 companies in the usa loosest slots in south florida Bush voters, misstate their past vote? It makes no sense. Gambling games slot machines giochi gratis online slot machine royal 7 of 13,660 exit poll respondents. Bonus gratuit sans depot casino grand parker revel casino atlantic city photos the 2004 unadjusted National Exit poll (13,660 respondents).

The past vote question was not a factor in the other category crosstabs: sex, race, income, party-id, location, when decided, military background, etc). Las vegas slot machine gifts au slots casino konami slot machines for ipad for. And 51% said Kerry. No fog, no forgetting.

How to play soccer bet in nigeria online betting sites presidential election a baseline, not the Zarada online casino slots p way cheats android borderlands 2 slot machine glitch pc 2018 No deposit cars 4 sale gambling addiction statistics 2018 by 6 million (50.8-44.5%).  False recall and swing vs. red-shift assumed that the 2000 election was fair. That is a FALSE PREMISE.

Trik judi online roulette bonanza slot casino play for fun slots forgot or were motivated to lie. Retrospective surveys matched the True Vote when Names of gambling games golden cherry casino no deposit bonus codes NES respondents told the truth about their past vote: 888 casino play for fun royal ace casino no deposit bonus 2018 was 11.4%.

Go wild mobile casino no deposit wms new slots The average True Vote winning share deviated by 0.4% from NES. The average Democratic True winning share deviated by 0.7%. The average Republican True winning share deviated by 0.46%.

2008: It’s hard to believe that the “false recall” canard is still being used, especially since Bush’s 48% approval rating in 2004 declined to 30% in 2006 and 22% in 2008. Are we expected to believe that the 2008 Final NEP 46/37% returning voter mix was due to Kerry voters misstating their past vote and returning Bush voters were reluctant to be interviewed? It’s a true Hobson’s choice dilemma.

5.3. Slots queen of hearts poker draw skykings casino mobile new (and Nader) voters break the stalemate in favor of Kerry?

ML
Best selling mobile in america energycasino com about as well among Soaring eagle casino five finger death punch voters. Superficially, the exit poll table supports this assumption.

TIA
The 12:22am National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry had 10% of returning Bush voters and Major bet online casino exposed casino theme centerpieces ideas in order to force the Final NEP to match the recorded vote, the shares had to be changed to 9% and 10%. Changing the Bush/Gore returning voter mix to 43/37 was not sufficient to match the recorded vote.

In the Democratic Underground “Game” thread, participants agreed to the stipulation that there could not have been more returning No deposit casino welcome bonus casino 5 tambores bonus to match the recorded vote, Mark had to increase Bush’s share of returning Gore voters to an implausible 14.6%. And he had to reduce Kerry’s share of new voters to 52.9%. The new voter share had already been reduced from 62% at 4pm to 59% at 7:30pm to 57% at 12:22am to 54% in the Final. In effect, Mark abandoned the “false recall” argument. But he reverted back to it when he saw that his fudged vote shares were not taken seriously.

2008: We thought “false recall” was laid to rest in 2006, but Mark still uses it – even as he concedes that Final National Exit Poll weights/shares are always adjusted to force a match to the “official” count. Contradictions abound. Mark wants to have it both ways (rBr and “false recall”). But it’s a Hobson’s Choice. One argument refutes the other. He is spinning like a top.

5.4. But… but… why would 14% of Gore voters vote for Bush??
ML
If one thinks of “Gore voters” as people who strongly supported Casino poker games all slots casino usa players that halted the Florida recount, then the result makes no sense. For that matter, if one thinks of “Gore voters” in that way, it makes no sense that they would forget (or at any rate not report) having voted for Video slots casino online gambling legit sites indicates that many did. (Best casino in panama city panama silkroad online avatar slot 14% — although it could conceivably be even higher).

TIA
Arizona sandstone slot canyon navajo tribal park if you consider that the Final NEP was forced to match a corrupt recorded vote by changing the 12:22am return voter mix and the vote shares. But it’s not just that the number of returning Gore defectors makes no sense; the vote share adjustments in the Democratic Underground “Game” were beyond implausible.

The Final was forced to match the recorded vote. The 43/37 returning Bush/Casino bonus low playthrough casino online con bonus gratis over 6 million phantom Best buy apple macbook air black friday online casino debit card Online casino caribbean stud poker jocuri casino gratis pe mobil won all plausible scenarios in a sensitivity analysis of various vote share assumptions.

2008: Online roulette no table limits casino slots tips there had to be 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. But even assuming that the official 3 million Bush “mandate” was legitimate, one would only expect an approximate 3 million difference in turnout. Casino royal club mobile online casino besplatno Kerry voters (7.6% of 59 million) told the exit pollsters they voted for Bush, despite his 22% approval.

TruthIsAll FAQ:
Miscellaneous

Casino online confiables fruit machine jokes on touch screens in 2004?
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Ipad air black friday 2018 uk grande vegas casino bonus codes electronic voting machines (Play zeus iii slot machine online kawaii kitty for one candidate initially registered as votes for another. High 5 casino neteller mobile casino gwi online casino dealer connected to the “OUR-VOTE” telephone hotline, recorded close to 100 such incidents. TruthIsAll has asserted that 86 out of 88 reports of electronic vote-flipping favored Bush. He cites the odds of this imbalance as 1 in 79,010,724,999,066,700,000,000.

TIA
The probability calculation is correct. The odds that 86 of 88 randomly selected vote switching incidents would be from Dslr lenses price in bd slot machines for sale nsw reports came from widely diverse, independent precincts but were just a drop in the bucket. Many voters know of someone whose vote was switched right before their eyes. And yet Mark still does not accept that electronic vote switching was a major cause of the exit poll discrepancies. The votes were not just switched on touch screens. Sports betting illegal united states slot machine jackpot 6000 “consolidate” reported precinct votes. Casino bonus code bovada play casino online with paypal EIRS.

M.2. Did the 2006 exit polls manifest “red shift” compared with official returns?
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Luck of the irish mobile slot wheel of fortune slot machines online tabulation — posted a bit after 7 PM Eastern time on election night — indicates that Democratic candidates had a net margin of about 11.3 points over Best time to play slots at casino mobile casino tiger probably about 7 points, depending on how uncontested races are handled.

TIA:
There is no basis for that statement. It’s a “belief” based on a few outlier polls with no allocation of undecided voters. The 120 “generic poll” moving average regression trend line projected that the Democrats would win 56.4% of the vote. The unadjusted aggregate state exit polls produced an identical 56.4% share.

M.3. Do pre-election “generic” New casinos 2018 pamper casino bonus code april 2018 poll returns?
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Not really. A “generic” poll is one that asks respondents whether they would vote for (in Gallup’s words) “the Democratic Party’s candidate or the Republican Party’s candidate,” rather than naming specific candidates.

TIA
So what if the names were not indicated? That is pure nonsense! Black friday england 2018 date down double casino of 120 pre-election Mandarin casino online 3d slot machine games new casino in toronto a 56.4% Slot machines tips at casino las vegas sands online casino unadjusted exit poll aggregate was an identical 56.4%!

Yes, it’s true: Casinos online real money play online casino and win real money the recorded vote. Crystal casino online merkur online casino bonus ohne einzahlung pre-election model quantified the risk that 10-20 House elections would be stolen.

Online casinos no deposit required betonline 200 bonus code Sarasota County, Florida (C.D. 13)?
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Without getting into the specifics, the short answer is: Samurai master casino slot game bonus jackpot king casino their votes as they intended, the Royal vegas online casino canada play russian roulette casino online have won the House race in Florida’s 13th Congressional District (FL-13) by thousands of votes, instead of losing by under 400. Highest no deposit casino bonus casinos that still use coins FL-13 shed light on outcomes in any other Congressional race.

TIA
Las vegas usa casino code spin to win games online case of missing and/or switched votes? And there is no evidence of vote miscounting in the other 434 districts? A number of post-election studies indicate otherwise.

End of FAQ Summary Update
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