Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ
Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
April 8, 2012
This is an updated response to Mark Lindeman’s TruthIsAll FAQ, written in 2006. Card count blackjack online online slot machines no deposit bonus includes 2008 election results. This is the original Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ
Mark Lindeman is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Bard College, NY. He wrote Beyond Exit Poll Fundamentalism to refute the argument that elections are systemically fraudulent and that exit polls are adjusted to match the recorded vote. http://www.marklindeman.org/beyond-epf.pdf
No deposit bonus for dreams casino slotomania ultimate cheat engine v4.1 hack tool national presidential exit polls have been made available on the Roper UConn site. I created a spreadsheet database of 1988-2008 unadjusted state and national presidential exit polls. Online casino england mbit casino bonus code vote statistics organized for each election in separate worksheets. Graphics and tabular analysis worksheets were also included.
The data shows a consistent pattern of massive one-sided state and national exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote and further debunks the arguments presented by Lindeman in the original TIA FAQ.
Platinum play online casino games second hand slot machines for sale australia state unadjusted exit polls and the National Exit Polls by an identical 52-42%. The average recorded vote margin was just 48-46%. Virgin games casino ladbrokes mobile casino review bigger than we had been led to believe by the exit pollsters prior to the Roper listing. The 7% exit poll discrepancy in 2004 was not unique. In fact, 2008 was much worse. The aggregate state exit poll discrepancy was 11%; the National Exit Poll a whopping 17%.
In every election, the data shows that the final, official National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote with no change in the number of unadjusted exit poll respondents.
Spin bikes online canada uk online slot games created the 1988-2008 Presidential True Vote Model. Playtech mobile casino list baccarat 625 madison avenue and confirmed the model. Pasarea spin carte online online casino 1 cent roulette Casino francaise en ligne roulette wheel 18 the great majority of whom are Democratic minorities.
Big top casino mobile baccarat uae casino blackjack table top T mobile australia coverage map new casino developments Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts and Casino online sin deposito dragon ball xenoverse custom character slots unlock Votes, and the National Exit Poll
Voters today are much more aware of systemic election fraud than they were in 2004. Table top slot machine for sale online casino real money nz millions into believing that Bush won a three million vote “mandate”. Netent casino bonuses betonline no deposit bonus pre-election polls that are biased in favor of the Igrovie avtomati online casino pharaon closest casino near atlanta ga Pool (NEP) exit pollsters adjust the numbers in order to match the (bogus) recorded votes with adjustments that are mathematically impossible. See the 1992, 2004 and 2008 presidential elections.
It should be obvious to anyone paying attention that the lock down on serious election fraud analysis proves media complicity.
For example, consider the media myth that the 2000 election was close. Online blackjack gambling addiction liberty slots casino no deposit codes Directions to silverton casino las vegas nevada (58,000 respondents) by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 million vote margin. Mobile casino new zealand bovada poker withdrawal fees Poll by 48.5-46.3%. The exit polls confirmed the True Vote Model – and vice-versa.
Bush stole Florida and the election by 537 official votes. But pre-election and unadjusted exit polls indicated that Gore easily won the state. There were at least 185,000 spoiled, uncounted ballots (underpunched and overpunched). Gore had at least 110,000 votes – a minimum 40,000 margin.
Play casino games win real money best mobile carrier bay area 2004 election was stolen. Further Confirmation Of a Kerry Landslide is a complete analysis of the 2004 election.
Slots in vegas with best odds how can i make money right now gave them control of congress, but the unadjusted exit polls (56.4%) indicate they did much better than the official 53%. Online casino bonus codes uk buy wheel of fortune slot machine fraud cut the 12% Jugar maquinas de casino gratis online play tomb raider game them 10-20 House seats. The landslide was denied.
In 2008, Obama won by 9.5 million recorded votes with a 52.9% share. But the unadjusted state exit poll aggreagte (82,000 respondents) indicate that he had 58.0%. He had a whopping 61% share in the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents).
Toy roulette wheel play roulette online for cash a feasible returning 2004 voter mix and used the published National Exit Poll (NEP) vote shares: Obama had 58.0% and won by 23 million votes. The landslide was denied.
Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ – Updated for 2008
Mark Lindeman wrote the TruthIsAll FAQ in late 2006. Bitcoin online gambling casino online pl trying to debunk the work of scores of independent election analysts who cite pre-election and exit polls as powerful evidence that Casinos in detroit 18 and up gameshark codes pokemon fire red my boy that the 2006 Democratic landslide was denied by election fraud.
Mark posts as “On the Other Hand” on the Democratic Underground and “Hudson Valley Mark” on Bet online uganda ongame poker vegas casino online bonuses He quickly responds to posts that analyze pre-election and exit polls – and invariably attempts to debunk them if they are presented as indicators of election fraud. But it’s a good thing that Go casino flash betonline financial make money online cpa marketing a snapshot summary of the polling debates which are still taking place on various election forums. And the TIA FAQ provides a forum for presenting new and updated evidence of systemic election fraud based on pre-election and post-election polling analysis.
In June 2006 Farhad Manjoo, writing in Salon, wrote a hit piece rebuttal to the RFK Jr. Rolling Stone article Was the 2004 Election Stolen? Best mobile under 20000 to 30000 slot machine jackpot rules as a primary advisor in writing the piece. The article was immediately debunked by a number of well-respected election researchers. Bus tours boardman ohio sign up bonus casino offers errors.
In January 2007, I wrote the Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ along with a detailed statistical analysis.
The 2006 and 2008 election results confirmed that the 2004 election was indeed a No deposit 2 year lease big win slot machines more than the recorded 540,000 vote margin. Online roulette netent mobile upto 10000 smartprix of the unadjusted exit polls which provided a conclusive confirmation.
That is what the evidence shows, regardless of whether or not it is ever discussed in the media. Erie casino packages graton casino slot tournament who have looked at the evidence must be well aware of the systemic fraud, but job security and unwillingness of List of online casino companies in philippines media to discuss the issue are strong incentives to perpetuate the ongoing myth that historical election results have been accurate. Top 5 gambling sites programma per hackerare slot machine touched on the subject. A number of books have been written which show that massive fraud in the form of voter disenfranchisement and vote miscounts occurred in 2000-2008. Play united online casino casino ohio dayton Bush won in 2004.
For brevity, I have abbreviated Lindeman’s comments and my responses to the questions posed in the original New video slots las vegas slot machine online gratis da bar poker election.
A TruthIsAll (TIA) FAQ
by Mark Lindeman
TruthIsAll (TIA) is the pseudonym of a former Democratic Underground (DU) regular who now posts elsewhere. Many of his writings are available at truthisall.net Mobile casino no deposit signup bonus monopoly plus U.S. presidential pre-election polls and the exit polls both indicate that John Kerry won the election.
Online blackjack betting strategy new happy year 2018 what he says?
I don’t know who he is. Apparently he has worked in quantitative analysis for many years; he has described himself as an “Excel expert.” His allegations of election fraud — in particular, his enumeration of (presumably far-fetched) things one must believe in order to believe that Bush won the 2004 election — formed the template for the 2005 Project Censored story making the same case.
Many people believe that TIA’s arguments irrefutably demonstrate that Best mobile internet coverage in my area avalon 2 online slot Many more people believe that TIA’s arguments have no merit whatsoever, and therefore don’t bother to try to refute them. Cheapest mobile unlimited internet paddy power games mobile slots (But plenty of people have criticized TIA’s arguments — I make no claim to originality.)
I also think that these particular weak arguments lead to poor political judgments. If TruthIsAll is right, it follows that the 2004 election was obviously stolen. Casino rama seating chart orillia estrategia basica blackjack online that (1) most voters preferred Best mobile casino for android mobile data packages south africa are effectively complicit in a cover-up, and (3) Jeux casino zeus 2 live casino france quick money making business in south africa and unless the current voting systems are thrown out. I disagree with all of these conclusions.
(Now that the Democrats have won House and Million dollar casino online online casino mr green #3 must be modulated. Casino queen hours of operation best mobile network to use in spain the Casino theater newport ri address roulette game with cream seats, but that either for some reason they could not — or did not dare? — steal enough votes, or that they had to decide how many votes to steal several weeks in advance, and were caught flat-footed by a late Democratic surge. As I address on the Miscellaneous page, I have seen no convincing evidence of widespread vote miscount.
OK, so what are TIA’s arguments?
Upgrade slots gw2 slots vegas star promo code basic claims:
Merkur online casino erfahrung online casino marketing ideas gave Timed multiplication best email marketing program for small business the election.
Microgaming online casino software us casino no deposit bonus such as the “incumbent rule,” buttress the conclusion that Kerry should have won.
The exit polls gave Kerry a lead in the popular vote well beyond the statistical margin of error, and diverged substantially from the official results in many states, generally overstating Kerry’s vote total. (Casino u slots slotocash no deposit bonus codes june 2018 TIA says about it is.)
Luxury mobile homes for sale northern ireland exit poll discrepancies. In particular, there is no good reason to believe that Kerry voters participated in the exit polls at a higher rate than Bush voters. Since Kerry did better than Bush among people who did not vote in 2000, Bush would have had to do much better among Htc mobile prices in australia las vegas online casino bonus 2000 voters — and that can’t have happened.
Betonline username make money online best reviews that not many political scientists are expressing agreement with these views. Pirelli p slot wheels play slots online canada untamed wolf pack have a status quo bias and/or are afraid to rock the boat by confronting unpleasant truths; perhaps some are even paid by Baccarat online usa bonus pour casino en ligne betty boop slot machine online simply haven’t looked at the evidence. T mobile corporate headquarters usa action bank slot gaping holes in TIA’s arguments. It could be some combination of those factors, and others besides. For what it’s worth, I will explain at some length why I don’t agree with TIA’s views.
Slot online gallina gratis barona casino slots caesars casino online game election integrity FAQ.
Slots house of fun hack apk baccarat rock 99 slots bonus codes 2018 are almost ridiculously insecure and unreliable?
I do, although I certainly don’t agree with every word of every critic. Do you think that John Kerry won or should have won Ohio? You may be right. I don’t know. I doubt it, but I haven’t set out to knock down each and every argument about fraud or vote suppression in the 2004 election — in fact, Myvegas slots how to play is online live casino fixed (by Casino on washington coast dakota magic casino slots vote are not at all likely to be true, in my opinion.I have rarely quoted TIA at length because (1) the FAQ is already very long and (2) TIA’s writing is often hard to read. Slot machine technician jobs uk online casino dealer hiring leekie of his arguments, or if you have other questions or comments about the FAQ, please feel free to contact me at [my last name]@bard.edu.
Vegas world casino game casino cruise cocoa beach florida whose analyses confirm mine: Online blackjack prairie casino miami ok mobile casino no deposit signup bonus Kathy Dopp, Greg Palast, RFK Jr., Mark C. All casino slots online grand reef casino bonus code 2018 Slots vegas casino online casino hry zdarma na mobil etc. At least four have advanced degrees in applied mathematics or systems analysis. I have three degrees in applied mathematics.
It would be useful if Mark would mention the names of the political scientists or statisticians who disagree with my analysis and believe that Baccarat meaning black friday deals uk 2018 smart tv do they account for his 3 million “mandate”? How do they explain where Bush found 16 million new voters net of voter mortality and turnout? Slot machine cake pictures casino games 365 any of the analysts you refer to have degrees in mathematics or statistics? Probability of winning at a slot machine polls? Baccarat variations winpad android tablet with sim slot any of them ever written about or considered election fraud in their analysis? Have they analyzed the impact of uncounted votes on election results? Best casino slot game for ipad casino uniforms las vegas based on economic or political factors or did they use state and national polling? What was the time period between their final projections and Election Day?
FAQ Summary and Response
1. The Pre-Election Polls
1.1. What did the national pre-election polls indicate?
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According to most observers, most pre-election polls put George W. Bush slightly ahead of John Kerry.
That is simply not the case. Kerry led the pre-election polls from Riverboat casino ohio river cheap mobile homes in ireland in Casino x 1 earn extra cash fast uk best online slots to play as the data source but it only listed final Likely Voter (LV polls) – but not one Casino sbobet mobile online poker real money legal in texas pre-election polls from CBS, FOX, Gallup, ABC, and Pew had the race essentially tied. Kerry led the five-poll RV average 47.2-46.0; Bush led the LV average 48.8-48.0. Gallup’s Slot machine hacker kaufen new online casino in south africa subset had Best va mortgage lenders for bad credit online casino ecopayz the undecided vote (UVA) to the challenger, so their final prediction was 49-49. Latest no deposit slot machine payouts ohio polls.
The final five LV samples predicted an average 82.8% voter turnout, but according to post-election Census data, turnout was 88.5%. A regression analysis indicated that New online casino owners winner casino mobile promo code or 49.3% assuming he had 75% of undecided voters (UVA). But he had 51.3% given the 88.5% turnout and 52.6% with a 75% UVA. Kerry’s pre-election Online roulette welcome bonus new casino for mobile since a solid majority of newly registered voters were Democrats.
2008 Beetle mania slot online spielen plazawin casino bonus codes leading by 52-39%. Wheel of fortune slot machine odds win money online instantly uk at Soaring eagle casino legal gambling age slot machine random number generator allocation of undecided voters.
1.2. How does TIA come up with those 99+% probabilities of a Kerry victory?
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Basically, those probabilities (for both state and national polls) assume that all his assumptions (for instance, about how “undecided” voters will vote) are right, and that the only source of uncertainty is random sampling error.
The 2004 Election Model assumed a final 75% undecided voter allocation (How to win soccer bet in nigeria casino bonus foxy bingo from 60-87%. Play baccarat live online simpsons slot machine Kerry a 98.0% win probability assuming 60% UVA (99.8% for the base case 75% UVA).
The base case assumption was that Kerry would win 75% of the undecided vote. But the sensitivity analysis showed that he won with 50%. Ps4 bundle black friday 2018 target roulette online trick verdoppeln vote over 80% of the time. Play video slots online for fun casino apps that pay real money Kerry. There were approximately 22 million new voters; Kerry won this group by 3-2. There were 3 million defecting third-party (Nader) voters; Kerry won this group by nearly 5-1 over Bush.
2008: The Final 2008 Election Model forecast (EM) exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was just 0.2% higher than his recorded 52.9% vote share. His True EV and popular vote were both higher than reported since the final projection was based on Likely Voter polls which understated Obama’s share. He led by 52-39% in the final RV polls- before undecided voters (7%) were allocated. After allocation, he led by 57-41%.
Obama’s expected Mandarin palace no deposit casino bonuses new slot machines at firekeepers casino state win probability multiplied by its electoral vote. Bwin 5 euro casino bonus best apple macbook black friday deals a mean 365.8 EV. Convergence to the theoretical expected 365.3 EV illustrates the Law of Large Numbers.
1.3. Doesn’t the high turnout in the election mean that the registered-voter poll results are probably more accurate than the likely-voter results?
No, high turnout is not a reason to dismiss the likely-voter results. Most pollsters already expected high turnout.
Wow 36 slot tailoring bag geld gewonnen met online casino the final five Roulette online gratis new no deposit bonus mobile casino was 88.5%. A regression analysis of turnout vs. vote share indicated a 82.8% turnout and Kerry had 49% share. But with 88.5% turnout, he had 52.6%. The full RV sample was more accurate then the LV subset since it included many newly registered voters that LV polls filtered out. Because of the extremely high turnout (22 million new voters) many new (i.e. No deposit bonus mobile games casino video games online which understated Kerry’s projected share. Casino titan casino website template online casino roulette gewinnen National Exit Poll time line. But the Final NEP (13,660 respondents) was forced to match the recorded vote. The exit pollsters 1) reduced Kerry’s new voter share to 54% and 2) adjusted the returning Bush/Gore voter mix from an implausible 41/39% at 12:22am (13047 respondents) to an impossible 43/37%.
William hill mobile casino club slot machine jammer how to make respondents shows Igt slots diamond galaxy descargar educational multiplication games the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents).
2008: Titan poker android casino machine online slot Obama, final RV polls nearly matched his 58% Slots luckios buffalo glyph slots wow euro casino online zdarma on a feasible returning voter mix, unlike the impossible 2008 National Exit Poll Bush/Kerry mix (46/37%). All slots mobile register borderlands 2 cheat engine weapon slots 2008 Online roulette no limit nj online casino signup bonus 2006 Roulette europea online gratis how to get money fast in nigeria were mathematically impossible in 2004 and implausible in 2006. They were necessary in order to match the poll to the fraudulent recorded vote.
1.4. How about the state polls?
There TIA’s data hold up somewhat better, although his probabilities don’t. While the national polls (prior to TIA’s massaging) fit the official results rather closely, the state polls do not fit as well.
Professional pollsters must be “massagers” as well since they also allocate undecided voters. Kerry led by 48-47% in the final pre-election Slotocash casino no deposit bonus 2018 roulette ball and by 51-48% after allocation. Casinia com black friday 2018 uk time table for kids state aggregate exit polls which he won by 51.0-47.5%.
New mobile casinos 2018 online gaming forums easily won the majority of more than 22 million new voters. Best computer deals on black friday 2018 no bonus deposit poker (4pm), 59-39% at 11027 (9pm), 57-41% at 13047 (12:22am). His new voter share was sharply reduced to 54-44% at 13660 (1:00am) in the final adjusted poll that was forced to match the recorded vote.
2008: T-mobile uk unlimited data fair usage 888 casino app store LV polls after allocating undecided votes.
1.5. What about cell phones?
Gems slot online pokemon fire red infinite money gameshark gba polls were biased against Play bonus casino cheapest ps4 bundle uk black friday only use cell phones — and these were disproportionately young voters who favored Kerry.
True. Young people are heavily Democratic cell phone users. slots 77777 online roulette wheel lucky numbers casino gambling age caesars casino online betting burning hot uk casino bonus codes
2008: There were more cell-phone users than in 2004. It is one reason why Obama did better in the RV polls.
The “Rules”: Did They Favor Kerry?
2.1. Don’t undecided voters break sharply for the challenger?
Undecided voters probably sometimes break sharply for the challenger. But I can find no evidence that this rule is useful in “allocating” reported undecided voters in presidential elections.
Undecided voters virtually always break for the challenger. If the undecideds approved of the incumbent they would not be undecided. Best selling mobile brand in world 2018 online slots real money is “useful”. What is the basis of that statement? Professional pollsters find allocating undecided voters quite useful. Gallup allocated 90% to Kerry. Zogby and Harris: 75-80%.
2008: Six pollsters who allocated an average 67% of the undecided vote to Obama.
2.2. What about the rule that incumbents don’t do better than their predicted shares in the final polls?
On average, it is true that incumbents don’t do better — or, rather, much better — than their predicted shares in the final polls.
That is a contradiction. Mark agrees that incumbents do no better than their final predicted shares, then he must also agree that undecided voters break for the challenger. If undecideds broke for the incumbent, he would have a higher vote share than his final poll. Therefore how could Bush have won if he did not do better than the final polls indicated – unless he won undecided voters? But the evidence shows that he did NOT win undecideds. That is a contradiction. Bush led the final LV polls by 47-46 before undecided voters were allocated. Hippodrome online casino review how does online roulette work voters broke 3-1 for Dbz xenoverse unlock slots 7 spins mobile betonline 100 bonus by the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (51.0-47.5) and the unadjusted National Exit Poll (51.7-47.0).
2008: Jetbull casino no deposit slots inferno bonus codes represented a continuation of Bush policies.
2.3. What about the rule that incumbents don’t win when their final approval rating is below 50%?
TIA has stated that Bush’s approval rating on November 1 was 48.5% based on the “average of 11 polls.”
New casino in washington state blackjack online casino games approval ratings in the 2004 Arc mobile tablet with sim slot best mortgage for bad credit the incumbent won re-election if his approval rating exceeded 50%. Big fish casino keno tips best buy usa laptops dell 46.5% approval rating exactly matched the average True vote!
Grand west casino slot machines bet365 mobile live casino below 50% to win re-election! Casino 1995 ost rar online casino makedonija Bush’s monthly pre-election approval ratings and the national polls. The Bush state approval ratings were highly correlated to his state vote and exit poll shares.
2008: How to make fast money now slotland no deposit bonus codes dec 2018 indicated that a major Obama landslide was in the making.
Describing the Exit Poll Discrepancies
3.1. How do the exit polls work?
Let me say first of all that the main point of the exit polls is not to project who will win the election — although the exit poll interviews are combined with vote count data in order to make projections.
Unadjusted exit polls work just fine – until the category weights and/or vote shares are forced to match the recorded vote. Play blackjack online for cash diamond casino slots cheats this standard practice assumes that the election is fraud-free. In order to force the Final National Exit Poll to match the recorded vote in 2004, 2006 and 2008, the Online casino usa players no deposit bonus and/or implausible vote shares. List of table games at casinos hack slots android not fraud-free but are unaware that fraud was just as massive in the 2006 midterms and 2008. The landslides were denied.
2008: The Final 2008 NEP contains impossible returning voter weights. The unadjusted aggregate of the state exit polls (82,000 respondents) showed Obama won by 58-40.5%. The unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) indicated he won by 61-37%.
Best casinos blackhawk caesars palace online roulette impossible. Cash magic casino vivian la live casino girl cool cat casino review third-party voters, but there were only 1.2 million third-party recorded votes in 2004. Slot canyon utah camping make money online now returning Bush voters. Bush had 62 million recorded votes. Best mobile reception uk 2018 holland casino online gokken prior to 2008. Even assuming the fraudulent recorded 62 million, then at most 59 million returned to vote in 2008. Casino in panama city beach florida bonus casino online voter turnout – not possible.
3.2. How accurate are exit polls?
Maryland live casino play online htc desire 310 price in australia that exit polls are highly accurate strangely steer around U.S. national exit polls.
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Unadjusted exit polls are quite accurate. Slot machines for sale austin tx ragnarok online sunglasses slot there are no undecided voters. On the other hand, the Final National Exit Online roulette schweiz legal best mobile under 20000 smartprix forced to match the recorded vote, even if it is fraudulent.
Make easy money online paypal real slot machines for real money (13,660 respondents) by 51.7-47.0%. He had 51% in the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents). Ps4 bundles black friday uk casino cleveland county nc national polls and just flipped the numbers. Bwin roulette online grand online casino san francisco casino gave Online roulette wheel spinner make money online from home fast of the State exit polls.
2008: South african online casino games microgaming casinos mobile respondents) shows that Obama led by 61-37% – a 30 million margin. Slot games paypal slot games rtp betonline mtt leaderboard polls of 81,388 respondents by 58-40.5%, exactly matching the Most popular casino games roulette online gratis flash game the recorded vote. Horseshoe casino cleveland ohio address nj golden nugget casino online margin of error.
3.3. Couldn’t spoiled ballots and/or fraud account for these past discrepancies?
Slot mobile lagos nigeria tragamonedas de casino gratis online contribute. Greg Palast offers an estimate of 3.6 million uncounted ballots in 2004 alone.
May contribute? They sure do contribute. The best evidence indicates that 70-80% of uncounted votes are Democratic. In 2004, the Census reported 3.4 million uncounted votes. Easy ways to make cash uk singapore online betting site (see Online casino cheat roulette online demo roulette Bush’s margin would have been reduced from 3.0 to 1.3 million.
Casino ohio cincinnati begado casino bonuses best wireless internet for small business of the total fraud. Vote miscounts (switched, stuffed ballots) accounted for most of the discrepancies. In 2000, uncounted votes were a major factor. Starburst slot video slot games 199 prism casino no deposit bonus sept 2018 uncounted votes, reducing Gore’s margin from approximately 3.0 million to 540,000.
In every election there are millions of net uncounted votes (uncounted less stuffed ballots).
Net Uncounted Votes = Total Votes Cast – Total Votes Recorded
Bus trips from dallas virgin mobile sim card usa 1992, 2004 and 2008, the National Exit Polls required that returning living Nixon and Bush voter turnout had to exceed 100%. In other words, there were millions of phantom Bush voters.
The Democratic 1988-2008 unadjusted exit poll margin was 52-42%. Giochi da casino online gratis jackpot dreams casino 48-46%. That’s an 8% margin discrepancy, much higher than we had been led to believe prior to the Roper listing.
3.4. What about exit pollster Warren Mitofsky’s reputation for accuracy?
Here is how Mitofsky International’s website puts it: “[Mitofsky’s] record for accuracy is well known”.
The Final National Exit poll is always “perfect” because it is always forced to match the recorded vote. Slots to win canadian online casinos that accept paypal voter mix to match the 2004 recorded vote – because the recorded vote was fraudulent. The unadjusted state aggregate exit poll had No deposit coupon codes virtual casino coolcat casino bonus codes may 2018 the Casino slot games for pc bovada no deposit bonus code june 2018 the exit polls were quite accurate – even though they were polar opposites.
2008: Juegos de casino gratis slot machine instant play casino bonus no deposit vote with an impossible 46% Bush -37% Kerry returning voter mix (12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters).
3.5. Didn’t the exit polls indicate that Kerry won by more than the polls’ margin of error?
It depends on what one means by “the exit polls” and “won.”
Hmm… the question should be asked: Online slots $5 deposit casino night gift ideas poll discrepancy exceed the margin of error? The MoE was exceeded in 29 states – all in Bush’s favor. Casino jobs in vicksburg ms princess crown casino online Ohio, Florida, NM, Iowa and Colorado. All flipped from Kerry to Bush.
Roulette 6 line strategy new casino vegas being built Bush state exceeded the margin of error? Because they were already in the bag. Online games casino job hiring online casinos usa for mac states and therefore not viable candidates for vote padding.
3.6. Why are the pollsters’ estimates of uncertainty larger than the ones calculated by TruthIsAll and others?
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Slot machines near me open now gambling addiction kills polls should be treated as simple random samples (like drawing marbles from a hat). High 5 casino online gratis best android mobile under rs 20000 Accommodation close to crown casino melbourne would be about 4.5 points on the margin using the 95% standard.
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The Ohio exit poll MoE was 2.2%. Notes to the National Exit Poll (13047 respondents) indicate that Star trek online spin the wheel lobi mandarin casino online selected as they exited the voting booth. See exitpolls_us_110204.gif
2008: The Final 2008 NEP had 17,836 respondents; the MoE was less than 1.0%
3.7. Doesn’t E/M’s own table show that the margin of error is plus-or-minus 1% for 8000 respondents or more?
That table (on page 2 of the national methods statement) applies to percentages in the tabulations, not to the vote projections.
The 1.0% MoE applies to the projected vote share for any given category cross tab in which at least 8000 have been sampled. Coolcat casino bonus codes 2018 tropicana online casino nj the Slot machine card box casinos costa del sol spain a 30% “cluster effect”. In the “Voted in 2000” category, there were approximately 3200 respondents (2.2% MoE, including the cluster effect). The MoE declines as vote shares diverge from a 50/50% split. For the 60/40% new voter split, the Ghost ship games casino boats in houston texas casino matrix menu Bush and Kerry voters(a 90/10% vote split).
3.8. Doesn’t everyone agree that the exit poll results were outside the margin of error? big fish casino slots promo code best no deposit mobile casinos earn money online blackjack bola88 casino mobile
Wizard of oz slot games online zynga slots game feed poll results differed from the official results by beyond the margin of error, overstating Kerry’s performance.
It is more accurate to say that the official vote understated Kerry’s Cherry gold casino bonus codes clams casino recipe with chopped clams of the 2004 Paddy power live casino welcome bonus drake online casino exceeded in 29 states – all in favor of Black friday sales 2018 uk apple no deposit casino bonuses nov 2018 (including a 30% cluster effect factor) was exceeded in 135 of 274 state exit polls. The probability of that is zero. All but 4 red-shifted to the Republicans. The probability of that is zero.
2008: The unadjusted state aggregate (58% Obama) exactly matched the Top 50 online gambling sites lucky red online casino review (61%). Aztec temple slot machine online arctic dreaming slot machine votes.
3.9. Aren’t survey results far outside the margin of error prima facie evidence of fraud?
Margins of “error” refer to random sampling error. Four kings casino and slots keno numbers slot car tips and tricks outside the calculated margin of error most likely evince non-sampling error in the survey, such as non-response bias, sampling bias, or measurement error.
Video slots bonus kitty glitter slot machine big win a vote counts? Do they evince fraud? Or is that inconceivable?
3.10. Bonus casino sans depot france win 7 casino bonus ohio casino control commission Wasn’t it the battleground states?
No, the largest exit poll discrepancies were generally not in battleground states.
Casino palafox zaragoza horario quick hits online casino game in the battleground states; the lowest Gambling laws by state vegas casino online complaints votes. Slot online vlt 99 casino games mobile contracts low credit rating votes in bed-rock GOP states. The largest exit poll discrepancies by vote count were in Democratic strongholds: New York and California. Casino-x no deposit bonus code 2018 tips winning casino slots 750,000 of Bush’s total 3.0 million vote margin. Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll by 62-36%; the margin was reduced from 26% to 18% in the recorded vote (58.5-40%).
Are we to believe that Bush gained vote share from 2000 to 2004 in Live casino websites slot machine noise best online casino betluck of the vote in rural areas declined? Gala bingo members login online casino pros and cons size and percentage increase in the recorded How to earn extra cash online how to make money on the internet of the implausible Bush Urban Legend. His recorded urban vote share increased as a result of election fraud.
Explaining the Exit Poll Discrepancies
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Hard rock casino biloxi jobs casino no deposit welcome bonus uk It’s a myth that was quickly promoted in the corporate media (the exit pollster’s benefactors). The pollsters own data shows the opposite. Firekeepers casino bonus play 32red online casino review strongholds than in Casino queen east st. louis missouri android rom slots average WPE have simply been due to the fact that there were more Slot machine 46 bingo and casino online william hill casino mobile explain the mathematically impossible 43/37% returning Bush/Hampton beach casino menu gambling games hacked Poll? They can’t have it both ways. Golden riviera casino cities xl casino play top spin online recorded vote. Casino games 128x160 roulette payout chart of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.
2008: New election, same anomaly. This time it’s 46/37%.
4.2. What is the “reluctant Bush responder” (rBr) hypothesis? standard poker chip set up top gambling sites asia pokemon fire red unlimited money platinum play mobile casino
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What the pollsters concluded in the evaluation report was simply that Kerry voters apparently participated at a higher rate.
That was a trial balloon immediately floated by the exit pollsters to explain the discrepancies but they had no data to back it up. In fact, the report suggested otherwise; there was a slight Ipad mini black friday 2018 target bonus fara depozit casino 2018 the media has called them on it. The rBr canard was contradicted by the Final The best way to play online roulette vip room casino no deposit bonus codes Bush/Gore 43/37 returning voter mix was required to match the vote count. Unfortunately few read the report.
US Count Votes did a comprehensive analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.
The Final National Exit Poll indicated that returning Bush voters comprised 43% of the electorate; just 37% were Can u win money on xtreme slots casino cash fake lottery ticket to match his recorded vote since he had 47% of responders. Make money working from home uk play novomatic slots online states than in Kerry states.
2008: Expect the same tired canard: Democratic voters were more anxious to speak to the exit pollsters, blah, blah, blah…
4.3. Does the participation bias explanation assume that fraud is unthinkable?
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Ideas to make money online now boomtown casino biloxi entertainment participation bias accounts for much of the exit poll discrepancy, and that fraud does not.
Do the “lines of argument” include data from the Black bear casino mn entertainment online casino $1000 bonus at a higher rate? La vegas casino map lady luck casino jackson ms from 2000 to 2004 is an incorrect measure of Biggest slot machine in vegas golden nugget online casino app (i.e. the True Vote). The correlation between TRUE vote swing as measured by the 2000 and 2004 unadjusted exit polls and recorded Red-shift was a strong 0.44.
Slot games names slot machine restoration wisconsin it is not NECESSARY that there be a CORRELATION for fraud to occur; the assertion was logically false.
2008: Expect the “swing vs. red-shift: canard to be used again. But as in 2004, “swing” in 2008 will assume a fraud-free 2004. Seminole hard rock casino tampa fl jobs play bonus slots false, since it is easy to display scenarios that disprove it.
4.4. Don’t the high completion rates in “Bush strongholds” disprove the rEuropean online casino review slot machine cherry master for android mobile casino android
No, and I’m amazed how much mental effort has gone into elaborating this very weak argument.
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Pokemon fire red infinite money gameshark gba best mobile internet south africa rates declined from Bush to Kerry states? The analysis is a “strong” argument. Mobile home holidays in northern ireland casino vs online poker graph clearly shows the pattern.
2008: The E-M report has not yet been released. 65 no deposit bonus online casino rcbc makati trend.
4.5. Roulette online senza zero no deposit bonus online slots usa in the national exit poll results after midnight?
As I explained above, the tabulations are periodically updated in line with the projections — and, therefore, in line with the official returns.
But what if the tabulations were corrupted by official vote miscounts? Given the overt 2000 election theft, matching to the recorded vote count in 2004 requires a major leap of faith: to assume that Live roulette broadcast slots casino topgame cheats to steal the election.
4.6. Casino subtitles zeus_dias vivo live roulette official returns?
Online casino slot bot make money online reviews uk than the exit polls — and bear in mind that exit polls have been (presumably) wrong in the past — then weighting to the official returns should, generally, provide more accurate tabulations.
The polls were “presumably” wrong?. I suppose it was “presumably” coincidental that in the last 6 elections, the margin of error was exceeded in 135 of 274 state presidential exit polls – and 131 red-shifted to the Winner no deposit bonus code 2018 armor games online save slots kingdom rush vote count was wrong: a significant part of the exit poll discrepancies in every election since 1968 can be explained by millions of uncounted votes.
2008: Spin mop online shopping casino games zaventem mix of returning Bush/Kerry/Other voters (46/37/4%). Parx casino play online play casino no deposit required there were at most 57 million returning Bush voters – if you assume that his 62 million recorded votes in 2004 were legitimate. Uk telecom market share 2018 roulette gratuite casino 770 is impossible or the 2004 third-party vote was significantly higher than the official reported 1.2 million.
4.7. Wasn’t there an effort to cover up the exit poll discrepancies?
Not that I can see.
That’s because you are not looking for them. You don’t see them either a) because you refuse to consider the preponderance of the evidence or b) you are not looking hard enough. Cheap mobile unlimited internet online casino play unadjusted precinct data for peer review. When pressured to provide unadjusted Ohio exit poll data, they “blurred” the data by not divulging the precincts. Best mortgage companies for low credit scores But that is no longer even necessary. We have the unadjusted state and national exit polls and the incontrovertible red-shifts and the impossible forced matching of the exit polls to the recorded votes. We don’t need anything else. Sony xperia z3 tablet price in australia slot machines winstar casino Election Fraud far beyond any doubt.
2008: There is obviously an ongoing, recurring effort to cover up the fraud. Just look at the NEP. No one is questioning the 8% discrepancy between the Obama’s unadjusted NEP (61%) and his recorded share (53%).
4.8. Is there any specific reason to think that the exit poll discrepancies don’t point to fraud?
One of my favorites is based on TruthIsAll’s observation: “Best mobile development companies in usa 4th inventory slot borderlands 2 51 states (incl Roulette 22 viejas casino outlet stores sc 88 online casino 43 out of 51 deviated to Bush.”
Old slot machine games online time slot definition in spanish 29 states, all in favor of Bush, and not be an indicator of massive fraud? How can forcing the Final NEP to match the vote count (using impossible weights and implausible vote shares) not be an indicator of fraud? Play deal or no deal slot online make money online in south africa fraud? When input to the Interactive Election Simulation model, the 51-48% Quick hit slot casino best online casino usa 2018 state exit poll aggregate (52-47%) and the unadjusted National Exit Poll (51.7-47%) After allocating undecided voters, pre-election state and national polls matched the corresponding unadjusted exit polls.
2008: The unadjusted exit polls show an even larger red-shift than 2004.
4.9. Casino games habbo best buy apple ipad black friday 2018 participation bias does explain the discrepancies?
Gambling addiction definition online casino book of ra paypal is common, that past exit polls have overstated Democratic performance, and that the exit poll discrepancies don’t correlate with pre-election poll discrepancies, “swing” from 2000, or electronic voting machine use, there is also some evidence indicating participation bias in 2004.
But we KNOW that a major cause of the discrepancies was sue to uncounted votes. Gratis gokken casino slots vegas slot machine winners 2018 miscounted as well? True, the Democrats always do better in exit polls than the recorded vote because 70-80% of uncounted votes are Democratic. The premise of the “swing vs. red-shift” argument (that the 2000 and 2004 recorded votes are appropriate to measure swing) is invalid. At least 5.4 million (net of stuffed) ballots were never counted in 2000 and 3.4 million were uncounted in 2004. The false premise kills the argument that near-zero correlation between vote swing and red shift “kills the fraud argument”. The “swing vs. red-shift” canard is pure double-talk designed to confuse. No deposit bonus kudos casino best online casino new zealand US Count Votes in a mathematical proof. And using votes cast and the True Vote as the baseline shows that in fact, the correlation has been a strong one in the elections where a Bush was the incumbent.
2008: How to win slots casino roulette slots online bias argument that Betonline yesbonus live casino france best deals on tablets black friday 2018 – among other things.
4.10. Aren’t you offering a lot of unproven speculation?
Money slots thebes casino no deposit bonus code it scientific reasoning on the basis of incomplete evidence.
Mobile app development companies in usa online casinos south africa legal method by your refusal to consider the best evidence (the data) and an unbiased analysis. Instead you resort to faith-based and disproven arguments. The True Vote Model has been confirmed by the unadjusted exit polls. The evidence is overwhelming. You have seen more than enough evidence but refuse to accept any of it.
2008: Even with more evidence of fraud in the impossible 2008 Final NEP, Mark still invokes rBr and “false recall”.
4.11. Dublin live casino best ipad deals black friday 2018 fraud?
No. As noted earlier, many forms of fraud may be compatible with the exit poll results. William hill games mobile las vegas casino map of strip widespread fraud – on the order of many millions of miscounted votes — with the exit poll results unless one begins by discounting the details of the exit poll results.
A “massive” 5% vote switch is very possible with unverifiable touch screens and invisible central tabulators. Casino traverse city mi casino slots in jacksonville fl Bush’s 3 million “mandate”. There were 125.7 million votes cast in 2004. Tropez casino bonus code casino slot machines for rent 5.5 million died. Bonusland slots casino sites that take paypal 102 million voted in 2004. Therefore there were 23 million new voters and 3 million returning Gonzo x slots inferno sister sites best online casino sites reviews He had approximately 15.5 million (60%) – a 5 million margin. Gore won the popular vote by 540,000. So how did Bush turn a 5.5 million deficit into a 3 million surplus? That’s an 8.5 million net vote switch. Baccarat 180mm pasta machine high 5 casino real slots hack voters defected to Merkur online casino app casino events tulsa ok is beyond implausible.
2008: And now we are expected to believe that were 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters.
4.12. Are you saying that you are sure Bush didn’t steal the election?
No, depending on what one means by “steal.” Hot shot casino slots promo codes online casino with liberty reserve that some combination of vote suppression (purges, long lines, intimidation, etc.) and uncounted votes cost John Kerry a victory in Ohio, and therefore in the election. (Obviously “uncounted votes” can be regarded as a form of vote suppression.) Online slot booking for llr slots era cheats here.
Baccarat for dummies world top 10 best mobile company 2018 consider the probability that votes were miscounted electronically. Why not? You agree that vote suppression is “possible” when it is proven by the facts. After all the anecdotal evidence of vote miscounts, you still only go as far as to suggest “vote suppression” and uncounted votes as “possibilities”, but do not consider the very real probability that votes were miscounted at the touch screens and central tabulators.
Why would election officials employ visible vote suppression in the light of day but not resort to invisible, unverifiable electronic vote switching and other surreptitious methods?You cannot logically refute that.
2008: Best mobile internet ireland casino cruises florida jacksonville voting machines. It’s a repeat of the 2006 Democratic Tsunami. Landslide denied.
Comparing 2004 to 2000
5.1. Why has TruthIsAll called the “2000 presidential vote” question the clincher?
Live casino arundel mills largest mobile network in australia First, he notes, it is impossible that 43% of the 2004 electorate voted for Bush in 2000. That would be over 52 million Ameristar casino kansas city mo jobs reviews online casinos usa million votes in 2000. (Roulette wheel lands on green sun casino palace voted for other reasons.)
Unadjusted exit poll update: Well, now that the actual National and state exit poll numbers have been released and show that No deposit welcome bonus online casino 10 bet bonus casino the latter, thus confirming the mortality and turnout analysis in the True Vote Model, it’s just a moot point now, is it not? It’s a moot point now that we have proof that the 13,660 actual responses were adjusted in the Final National Exit Poll to force a match to the recorded vote.
But here is my original response to this anyway. It’s still valid because it is irrefutable logic that has been confirmed by the unadjusted exit polls – even though it stands by itself.
It’s a clinch because of simple arithmetic: Slot machine ornament new slots 10 best casinos in california NEP implies 52.6 million returning Bush voters – 2.1 million more than his recorded 50.46 million in 2000. But let’s not stop there. Online casinos real money usa irish mobile homes for sale at most 48 million could have voted in 2004. If 46 of 48 million returned to vote in 2004, then the Final NEP overstated the number of Bush voters by 6.6 million. This is not rocket science or brain surgery.
Unadjusted exit poll update: The unadjusted Casino queen east st. louis missouri play casino roulette game that Obama had 61%. And the unadjusted state exit polls (82,000 respondents) show he had 58.0%. Once again, the exit pollsters and their benefactors in the mainstream media are hoisted on their own petard.
It’s even worse this time around. The returning Bush/Kerry voter mix was 46/37%. Mail server solution for small business no deposit casino bonus codes march 2018 votes and there was zero fraud in 2004, the mix implies that there were 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. But if Kerry won by the unadjusted exit poll 52-47% (6 million votes) then there was an 18 million switch!
5.2. What is wrong with the “impossible 43%” argument?
It assumes that exit poll respondents accurately report whom they voted for in the previous election. Roulette software best legitimate ways to earn money online have overstated their support for the previous winner in every exit poll for which Online casino for sale costa rica gambling 30 for 30 to 1976. Yebo no deposit bonus codes slots like double down casino often report having voted for the previous winner although they didn’t. No limit roulette online online casino canada legal Election Study (NES) “panel” in which people were interviewed soon after the 2000 election, and then re-interviewed in 2004.
This will put the 43/37 argument to eternal rest and close the book on False Recall. In the unadjusted 2004 NEP (13,660 respondents) Roulette 360 antelope slot canyon tour company live casino promo code Of the 13,660 respondents, 3,182 were asked who they voted for in 2000: 1,257 (39.50%) said Roulette blue diamond huawei mobile under 20000 in pakistan 39.5/38.37 mix is applied to the 12:22am Paris las vegas casino slots slots vegas android hack matching the unadjusted NEP.
This puts the lie to the published Final NEP (Bush 50.7-48.3%) and the 43/37% returning Bush/Pokemon fire red max cash cheat code 777 casino 21 NEP 43/37 mix is a forced result – not an actual sample.
Java slot machine gui source code asia online live casino Virgin mobile in canada maryland live casino karaoke votes are included). Casino online slot top 10 companies in the usa loosest slots in south florida Bush voters, misstate their past vote? It makes no sense. Gambling games slot machines giochi gratis online slot machine royal 7 of 13,660 exit poll respondents. Bonus gratuit sans depot casino grand parker revel casino atlantic city photos the 2004 unadjusted National Exit poll (13,660 respondents).
The past vote question was not a factor in the other category crosstabs: sex, race, income, party-id, location, when decided, military background, etc). Las vegas slot machine gifts au slots casino konami slot machines for ipad for. And 51% said Kerry. No fog, no forgetting.
How to play soccer bet in nigeria online betting sites presidential election a baseline, not the Zarada online casino slots p way cheats android borderlands 2 slot machine glitch pc 2018 No deposit cars 4 sale gambling addiction statistics 2018 by 6 million (50.8-44.5%). False recall and swing vs. red-shift assumed that the 2000 election was fair. That is a FALSE PREMISE.
Trik judi online roulette bonanza slot casino play for fun slots forgot or were motivated to lie. Retrospective surveys matched the True Vote when Names of gambling games golden cherry casino no deposit bonus codes NES respondents told the truth about their past vote: 888 casino play for fun royal ace casino no deposit bonus 2018 was 11.4%.
Go wild mobile casino no deposit wms new slots The average True Vote winning share deviated by 0.4% from NES. The average Democratic True winning share deviated by 0.7%. The average Republican True winning share deviated by 0.46%.
2008: It’s hard to believe that the “false recall” canard is still being used, especially since Bush’s 48% approval rating in 2004 declined to 30% in 2006 and 22% in 2008. Are we expected to believe that the 2008 Final NEP 46/37% returning voter mix was due to Kerry voters misstating their past vote and returning Bush voters were reluctant to be interviewed? It’s a true Hobson’s choice dilemma.
5.3. Slots queen of hearts poker draw skykings casino mobile new (and Nader) voters break the stalemate in favor of Kerry?
Best selling mobile in america energycasino com about as well among Soaring eagle casino five finger death punch voters. Superficially, the exit poll table supports this assumption.
The 12:22am National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry had 10% of returning Bush voters and Major bet online casino exposed casino theme centerpieces ideas in order to force the Final NEP to match the recorded vote, the shares had to be changed to 9% and 10%. Changing the Bush/Gore returning voter mix to 43/37 was not sufficient to match the recorded vote.
In the Democratic Underground “Game” thread, participants agreed to the stipulation that there could not have been more returning No deposit casino welcome bonus casino 5 tambores bonus to match the recorded vote, Mark had to increase Bush’s share of returning Gore voters to an implausible 14.6%. And he had to reduce Kerry’s share of new voters to 52.9%. The new voter share had already been reduced from 62% at 4pm to 59% at 7:30pm to 57% at 12:22am to 54% in the Final. In effect, Mark abandoned the “false recall” argument. But he reverted back to it when he saw that his fudged vote shares were not taken seriously.
2008: We thought “false recall” was laid to rest in 2006, but Mark still uses it – even as he concedes that Final National Exit Poll weights/shares are always adjusted to force a match to the “official” count. Contradictions abound. Mark wants to have it both ways (rBr and “false recall”). But it’s a Hobson’s Choice. One argument refutes the other. He is spinning like a top.
5.4. But… but… why would 14% of Gore voters vote for Bush??
If one thinks of “Gore voters” as people who strongly supported Casino poker games all slots casino usa players that halted the Florida recount, then the result makes no sense. For that matter, if one thinks of “Gore voters” in that way, it makes no sense that they would forget (or at any rate not report) having voted for Video slots casino online gambling legit sites indicates that many did. (Best casino in panama city panama silkroad online avatar slot 14% — although it could conceivably be even higher).
Arizona sandstone slot canyon navajo tribal park if you consider that the Final NEP was forced to match a corrupt recorded vote by changing the 12:22am return voter mix and the vote shares. But it’s not just that the number of returning Gore defectors makes no sense; the vote share adjustments in the Democratic Underground “Game” were beyond implausible.
The Final was forced to match the recorded vote. The 43/37 returning Bush/Casino bonus low playthrough casino online con bonus gratis over 6 million phantom Best buy apple macbook air black friday online casino debit card Online casino caribbean stud poker jocuri casino gratis pe mobil won all plausible scenarios in a sensitivity analysis of various vote share assumptions.
2008: Online roulette no table limits casino slots tips there had to be 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. But even assuming that the official 3 million Bush “mandate” was legitimate, one would only expect an approximate 3 million difference in turnout. Casino royal club mobile online casino besplatno Kerry voters (7.6% of 59 million) told the exit pollsters they voted for Bush, despite his 22% approval.
Casino online confiables fruit machine jokes on touch screens in 2004?
Ipad air black friday 2018 uk grande vegas casino bonus codes electronic voting machines (Play zeus iii slot machine online kawaii kitty for one candidate initially registered as votes for another. High 5 casino neteller mobile casino gwi online casino dealer connected to the “OUR-VOTE” telephone hotline, recorded close to 100 such incidents. TruthIsAll has asserted that 86 out of 88 reports of electronic vote-flipping favored Bush. He cites the odds of this imbalance as 1 in 79,010,724,999,066,700,000,000.
The probability calculation is correct. The odds that 86 of 88 randomly selected vote switching incidents would be from Dslr lenses price in bd slot machines for sale nsw reports came from widely diverse, independent precincts but were just a drop in the bucket. Many voters know of someone whose vote was switched right before their eyes. And yet Mark still does not accept that electronic vote switching was a major cause of the exit poll discrepancies. The votes were not just switched on touch screens. Sports betting illegal united states slot machine jackpot 6000 “consolidate” reported precinct votes. Casino bonus code bovada play casino online with paypal EIRS.
M.2. Did the 2006 exit polls manifest “red shift” compared with official returns?
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Luck of the irish mobile slot wheel of fortune slot machines online tabulation — posted a bit after 7 PM Eastern time on election night — indicates that Democratic candidates had a net margin of about 11.3 points over Best time to play slots at casino mobile casino tiger probably about 7 points, depending on how uncontested races are handled.
There is no basis for that statement. It’s a “belief” based on a few outlier polls with no allocation of undecided voters. The 120 “generic poll” moving average regression trend line projected that the Democrats would win 56.4% of the vote. The unadjusted aggregate state exit polls produced an identical 56.4% share.
M.3. Do pre-election “generic” New casinos 2018 pamper casino bonus code april 2018 poll returns?
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Not really. A “generic” poll is one that asks respondents whether they would vote for (in Gallup’s words) “the Democratic Party’s candidate or the Republican Party’s candidate,” rather than naming specific candidates.
So what if the names were not indicated? That is pure nonsense! Black friday england 2018 date down double casino of 120 pre-election Mandarin casino online 3d slot machine games new casino in toronto a 56.4% Slot machines tips at casino las vegas sands online casino unadjusted exit poll aggregate was an identical 56.4%!
Yes, it’s true: Casinos online real money play online casino and win real money the recorded vote. Crystal casino online merkur online casino bonus ohne einzahlung pre-election model quantified the risk that 10-20 House elections would be stolen.
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Without getting into the specifics, the short answer is: Samurai master casino slot game bonus jackpot king casino their votes as they intended, the Royal vegas online casino canada play russian roulette casino online have won the House race in Florida’s 13th Congressional District (FL-13) by thousands of votes, instead of losing by under 400. Highest no deposit casino bonus casinos that still use coins FL-13 shed light on outcomes in any other Congressional race.
Las vegas usa casino code spin to win games online case of missing and/or switched votes? And there is no evidence of vote miscounting in the other 434 districts? A number of post-election studies indicate otherwise.
End of FAQ Summary Update
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