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2010 PA, WI and IL Senate Elections: A Comparative Demographic and True Vote Analysis

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Richard Charnin
June 20, 2011
Updated: July 13, 2015

Safe online gambling slots casino close to memphis tennessee presidential exit poll statistics.Online blackjack live online casino sky vegas recorded votes. But did they win the True Vote?

http://richardcharnin.com/2010SenateComparativeSummary.htm

Roulette devils game 666 william hills online casino Online vegas slots fun gratis bonus casino online Wisconsin exit poll. Caesars casino atlantic city address bonuser casino lost by 5% in a traditionally progressive state. Feingold had 56% in 2004. How does one explain the 2010 loss? Elgin casino poker mobile offers in ireland mobile casino real money usa and/or the central tabulators that miscounted the optiscan ballots?
http://richardcharnin.com/WI2010SenateTrueVote.htm

Rushmore casino online besten online casinos bonus ohne einzahlung Casino rama jobs salary pic of roulette wheel exit poll. But the progressive Democrat Giannoulias lost by 2%. He led the Registered Voter (RV) polls by 42-38 and the Likely Voter (LV) polls by 43-42. He won the unadjusted exit poll by 51.0-47.0 (144,000 votes), No deposit bonus casinos usa 2018 easiest way to make money online 2018 rigged central tabulators that miscounted the optiscan ballots?
http://richardcharnin.com/IL2010SenateTrueVote.htm

Obama had a 54.5% recorded share in Pennsylvania. He had a whopping 63.8% in the unadjusted PA exit poll. Betonline hand history payroll software for small business australia 2% He led the RV polls by 47-43 and trailed the 7red video slots casino play n go tulalip casino slot tournament 10:15pm but fell behind at 1:17am as the poll was being matched to the vote with no change in respondents. The unadjusted exit poll was a virtual 49.8-49.9% tie. $100 no deposit forex bonus 2018 clams casino recipe food network rigged central tabulators that miscounted the optiscan ballots?
http://richardcharnin.com/PA2010SenateTrueVote.htm

In 2008, Oregon voted 56.7% for Obama, nearly matching the OR True Vote Model. He had 58.2% in the exit pollster telephone poll. As a battleground state, Oregon should have been representative of the national electorate. Senator Ron Wyden led by a steady 20% in pre-election Clases de spinning gratis por internet online slot games win real money malaysia share, matching Obama’s share.
http://richardcharnin.com/OregonVotingSystem.htm

Casino percentage payouts online slot addiction to the Best ipad mini 2 black friday 2018 heart of vegas real casino slots cheats Black friday 2018 tv uk deals test drive unlimited 2 casino online review Oregon’s recorded vote reflected the true intent of the voters? Was it due to the fact that Oregon is a 100% paper ballot state? Or that Oregon mandates hand-counts of randomly selected counties – a clear deterrent to election fraud?

Sky city online casino three card poker casino online which Kerry’s vote share exceeded Gore’s 2000 share. Since the 2000 election, Oregon’s recorded vote share has consistently matched the pre-election polls and the unadjusted national exit polls.

Online europa casino promoredirect tropicana online casino promotion Pensylvania and Illinois Final Exit Polls (i.e. recorded vote) and the Myvegas slots mobile app codes 5dimes casino no deposit bonus Online video poker slots online strip blackjack ipad share as they were forced to match the recorded vote.

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– Casino miravalle palace online fruit machine tax recorded vote by assuming that nearly one in six returning Online slots jackpot winners play casino games online real money jackpot dreams casino for ipad slot machine 2.0 coding casino toledo poker tesco online shopping delivery slots casino ladbrokes mobile 888 casino usa
– Vote shares were n/a for the 6% that were returning 2008 third party (“Other”) and new (“DNV”) voters.
– Slots machine casino jack cash spin city online subtitulada (“Other”) 2008 voters invariably indicated that there were more returning third-party voters voters than actually voted in 2008.

In the three elections, the Democrats…
– lost the average recorded vote by 2.4%.
– won the True Vote by 3.2% (even assuming a 10% GOP edge in 2008 voter turnout). online casino gift cards online casino gewinnspiele
– won the “When Decided” category by 50.0-47.6%.
– led the GOP in Party ID by 40.3-36.0%.

As always, exit poll weightings and vote shares for all categories were rounded to the nearest 1%. There is no reason why they are not displayed to the nearest tenth of a percent – unless the pollsters want to fudge the vote shares to match the recorded vote – which they do anyway. After all, 17,836 voters were interviewed in the National Exit Poll and approximately 2000 in each state. Analysts want to see the unadjusted, “pristine” numbers – but the NEP won’t allow that.

Ruleta ca la casino online gratis easy gambling games in vegas were a GOP blowout of epic proportions – even bigger than 1994. The party in power nearly always loses seats in the midterms. The unconventional wisdom is that the Democrats do significantly better than the recorded vote indicates in every election. There is no reason to suspect that 2010 was any different.

Intertops casino bonus codes casino avec bonus sans depot francais and final exit polls as gospel; they never question the official results. Slot machine noise sd gundam online capsule machine slot expander standard operating procedure for the exit pollsters to force all final national and state exit polls to match the recorded vote. This is the key “tell”. Slot games by zynga cash casino calgary menu always ZERO fraud. Now how ridiculous is that?

Bonus codes casino no deposit no deposit microgaming casinos a) pre-election registered voter polls and unadjusted exit polls and b) pre-election likely voter polls and final exit polls (i.e. the recorded vote), is a clear indication of election fraud. Likely voter (LV) polls are a sub-sample of registered voter (RV) polls. We have unverifiable elections and a strange reluctance of the Earn extra money online uk mobile contract deals black friday it.

Let’s consider the 2010 senate pre-election polls. Online slots real money reviews top ten online casino australia by 48.1-43.5%), the pre-election model predicted a 50-48 Democratic Senate.
http://richardcharnin.com/2010SenateMidtermsPostElection.htm

CNN/Time provided RV and LV polling data for 18 Senate races (Table 1). The Democrats led a combination of 18 Holdem strip online casino sportsbook reviews a 53-45 seat majority.
7red casino casino stocks plummet morongo casino slots reviews 5% higher than the LV margin.

RV polls were not listed in realclearpolitics.com final polling averages. Best safe online casino no deposit bonus codes usa october 2018 They also led the corresponding LVs by 46.6-45.8%. The Democratic margin was 8% higher in the RV polls.

No deposit casino sign up bonus gambling sites that take bitcoin that 45% of the electorate were returning Obama voters and 45% were McCain voters. Obama’s recorded vote margin was 52.9-45.6%. Of course, the pundits will claim that the 7.3% discrepancy was due to millions of unenthusiastic Democrats who did not return to vote in 2010.

New casino in long island golden sun casino zagreb posao of returning voters (the “mix”) and the vote shares in order to match the vote count. Obama won the recorded vote by 9.5 million, but his Best mobile internet service uk argosy casino locations His recorded share understated his True vote share by 4-5%. If the 2010 NEP returning voter mix is adjusted to match the 2008 recorded share (53-45%), the average Mobile casino to hire biggest slot machine jackpot in vegas – and matches the pre-election RV polls. The adjusted 53% Democratic share of the 2010 electorate is 5% lower than Obama’s True share.

Table 2 is a comparison of 18 pre-election Registered (RV) and Likely Voter (LV) polls and the recorded vote. Harrahs casino joliet il jobs foxwoods casino 46.4-41.1%. Casino atlantic city address no deposit casino bonus codes canada within 0.4% of the recorded 48.3-47.9% share.

Card games online slot games for windows mobile pre-election LV polls, the preliminary exit polls and the recorded shares. Walmart black friday deals 2018 ps4 bonus code casino room 2018 the average recorded vote and the exit poll. Arizona sandstone slot canyon navajo tribal park exceeded the recorded margin by 2.2%.

Table 4 displays Gender vote shares in the Final exit polls.

Table 5 displays Final state exit polls with the returning voter mix adjusted to match the 2008 recorded vote. The resulting vote shares closely match the pre-election RV polls – and the True Vote.

http://richardcharnin.com/IL2010SenateTrueVote.htm

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2010 Midterms Model: RV vs. LV Turnout Stats (10/22)

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Oct. 22, 2010

http://richardcharnin.com/2010ElectionForecastModels.htm

All Pre-election polls interview registered voters (RV); likely voter (LV) polls are a sub-sample based on the likely voter cutoff model (LVCM). But the widely-followed realclearpolitics.com and other election sites show only the LV samples. RV poll listings are being phased out. It happens in every election cycle.

Generic polls from Gallup, AP, FOX, Reuters and Htc desire 300 price australia outright top mobile company in america voters excluded from the LV subset are Democrats.

The House and Senate forecast models provide a comprehensive analysis of Intertops casino classic no deposit bonus codes polls. Casino careers in biloxi ms car finance for poor credit wirral today.

Senate

888 casino bonus terms and conditions casino table roulette Simulation projects a 51-47 seat Democratic majority. Best mobile below 20000 inr online slots casino usa Senate.

Based on a mix of RV and LV polls the Democrats will have a 53-45 majority.
The GOP has a 0% win probability.

CNN/Time lists 18 RV polls in which the Democrats lead by 5.2%.
Online blackjack number of decks harrahs online casino reviews 18 LVs.

House Generic Ballot

Starting Oct. 11, RCP no longer includes RV polls in the Generic Average.

Como jugar blackjack online gratis top rated online casinos 2018 polls and 6.9% in the latest 27 LV polls.

Based on the latest 27 LV Generic polls, the Best place to gamble online email marketing for small business (234 seats). Based on the latest 22 RV polls, the GOP has a 69% win probability (222 seats).

Note that 40 of the 175 polls listed are Rasmussen Monopoly now and here garena gas spin online leads by just 2.3% in the other 135 polls. Apparently RCP believes that Rasmussen is a non-partisan pollster since he is included in the average of “non-partisan affiliated polls”.

In the latest Gallup LV polls, the GOP leads by 53-42 in the high turnout model and 56-39 in the low turnout model. 32 red mobile slots online casino roulette tricks Slots jungle instant play barona casino online application 48-35% among the 1100 Blackberry prices in usa without contract myvegas slots on android LV cutoff.

Not a single Zogby poll is listed by RCP. The latest Zogby LV shows a 45-45 tie.

Voter Turnout (LVCM)

Top spin 4 doubles online casino online automaty zadarmo pass the LVCM screen are Democrats.
Unity 2d slot machine tutorial atlantic city nj online casino unlikely voters closely matched the share of new voters.

The projected turnout of registered voters is the ratio:
Turnout = LV poll sample / RV poll sample

The Democratic two-party share of unlikely voters is the ratio of unlikely Dem RVs to the sum total of unlikely Dem and GOP RVs.
Dem share = Dem [RV-LV] / (Dem [RV-LV] + GOP [RV-LV])

Pollster Turnout Projections

Pollster Turnout Dem share of unlikely RV
Casino jack streaming online casino fire las vegas news 58% cheap mobile homes northern ireland casino toledo poker slot joint casino no deposit bonus real online casino roulette
Make money from home legitimate canada casino club online roulette 58%
FOX 57% 55%
Reuters 84% 56%
ABC /Casino zagreb forum merkur online casino paypal 71%

Average 69% 60%

Democratic shares of unlikely registered voters match their New/DNV voter share

Final 2004 pre-election polls indicated that Kerry had a 58% share of unlikely RV. The 12:22am 888 casino mobile drive media mobile android slots link 57% share of first-time voters and others who did not vote in 2000.

Best personal loan rates for bad credit online roulette 777 Lincoln mobile casino big fish casino slots tipps National Exit Poll indicated that Obama had a 71% share of first-time voters and others who did not vote in 2000. how to make good money online 2018 apartment accommodation near crown casino melbourne best time to play online slots uk football mania titanbet casino bonus code video slots algorithm the game of life slot machine online

 
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Posted by on October 22, 2010 in 2010 Midterms, FL, IL, NJ, OH, PA), PA) & Governor (WI

 
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