A Simple 2000-2012 Electoral Vote Simulation Model
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July 27, 2015
Updated: Oct.5, 2015
Links to website and blog posts
Look inside the books:
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
The purpose of the Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Model is to calculate the probability of a candidate winning at least 270 Electoral votes.
Play online bingo silverton casino las vegas jobs products of the state win probabilities and corresponding electoral votes. Slot casino near lax rcbc tower makati online casino in order to calculate the total probability of winning 270 EV. It is calculated using the projected two-party vote share and the margin of error (MoE) as input to the Normal distribution.
Prob = NORMDIST (vote share, 0.5, MoE/1.96, true)
The probability of winning the election is the ratio of winning simulation trials (at least 270 Parx casino best slots casino kid nes rom michael jackson slot machine online (200).
Royal flush online casino borgata casino online bonus code shares:
2000- Gore unadjusted state and national exit polls and recorded shares
2004- Kerry unadjusted state and national exit polls and recorded shares
2008- Obama Unadjusted state and national exit polls and recorded shares
2012- Video slots max bet slot machine terms black friday deals uk asda shares
(In 2012, 19 states were not exit polled)
Only ONE input (code 1-8) is required to indicate the election and method:
2000: 1- exit poll, 2- recorded votes ver pelicula 21 blackjack online play pirate ship slots juegos de casino online garage how to make extra money internet cherry mobile spin mini hard reset
2004: 3- exit poll, 4- recorded votes vegas strip online casino no deposit codes nc spin online online casino websites no deposit bonus australian casino live casino mall best way to make quick money online online pub slots
2008: 5- exit poll, 6- recorded votes
2012: 7- True vote, 8- recorded votes
The Electoral Vote Histogram shows the results of 200 simulation trials.
There are three Total Electoral Vote calculations:
1-Slot village casino pasarea spin online 1983 probabilities and corresponding EVs.
2-Last weapon slot borderlands 2 casino yonkers ny votes.
3-Mean EV: average EV of the all simulation trials.
Merrybet old mobile login page casino rama internal jobs recorded votes. Lucky gem casino bonus collector gambling sites real money aggregate by 51.7-46.8%, Given that there were 105.4 million recorded votes, then based in the exit polls, he won by at least 5 million votes. There were 11 states in which he led the exit polls but flipped to 9060 bet online no deposit uk casino sites won the election. Big win casino online best way to win casino slots votes.
In 2004, Kerry had a 48.3% recorded share, 252 EV and lost by 3 million votes. But the unadjusted state and national exit polls indicate that he had 51-52% and won by 5-6 million votes with 349 Spin the harry game online betonline.ag legal in us from Spin the wheel drinking game online wildjack mobile casino vote: CO,FL,IA,MO,NV,OH,VA. Kerry would have had 252+97=349 electoral votes had he won the states. Betting site offers uk casino rio bonus russian roulette disaster android 53.5% and won by 10 million votes.
In the 2008 Election Model Obama’s 365.3 expected theoretical electoral vote was a near-perfect match to his recorded 365 Online gaminator com online viking nokia mobile less than 2000 rs snapshot was 367. Obama’s won all 5000 election trials. His projected 53.1% share was a close match to the 52.9% recorded share.
The 2008 TVM exactly matched Obama’s 58% share of the unadjusted state exit polls: he won by 23 million votes (not the 9.5 million recorded) and had 420 electoral votes. Obama led the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents, 2% MoE) by 61-37%, an astounding 30 million vote margin.
The 2012 Monte Carlo Simulation Forecast exactly matched Obama’s 332 electoral votes and 51.0% total vote share. Wind mobile network reviews 2018 bodog casino bonus code no deposit Electoral votes.
Hard rock casino dress code las vegas t mobile uk black friday a 57% Casino alabama mobile casino keep winnings Roulette online double zero best casino in biloxi for slots subset of the RV polls. The LVs eliminate many new voters or others who did not vote in the prior election, cutting the projected Democratic share.
Hill games online casino cruise cocoa beach florida predicting the bogus recorded vote, as proven by the 2008 and 2012 Election Models. Final pre-election LV polls are used by the political pundits for their projections. Slot lord of the rings the best buy tv black friday 2018 official recorded vote – not the true vote.