A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls”
Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
Oct. 29, 2010
Update: March 25, 2013
Baccarat high score casino age in arizona viejas casino jobs san diego ca post No deposit bonus us poker sites casino sites in ny It’s four years later but it would be instructive to review your comments on exit polls to see if you feel the same way about them. I’m still waiting for your response to my open letter regarding your pathetic last-place ranking of pollster John Zogby . I would also be interested in your answers to these twenty-five questions. It would enable readers to gauge your perspectives on election fraud.
Live roulette hamburg best casino miami beach The Signal is the 52-42% Democratic lead in the 1988-2008 unadjusted presidential state and national exit polls. The Noise is the media propaganda that the Best black friday sales 2018 online lincoln casino no deposit bonus codes adjusted polls. But we all know that it is standard operating procedure to force the exit polls to match the (bogus) recorded vote. The media (that means you) want the public to believe that Systemic Election Fraud is a myth.
Are you asking us to ignore a) the final adjusted exit polls which are ALWAYS forced to match the recorded vote or b) the unadjusted, preliminary state and national exit polls? If it’s (a), then you must believe that election fraud is systemic since the pristine, unadjusted exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote, even if it is fraudulent. If it’s (b), then you must believe that election fraud is a myth and that the recorded vote reflects actual voter intent (i.e. the true vote). Fast money making ways real casino online malaysia reading your “ten reasons”, Bovada casino mobile online casino leicht geld verdienen to my posts.
The “experts” whom you cite all have issues. You wrote: “Oh, let me count the ways. Almost all of this, by the way, is lifted from Mark Blumenthal’s outstanding Exit Poll FAQ”
Your first mistake was to believe all those discredited GOP talking points and to cite Mark Blumenthal as your source. You may not be aware that Mark was the original Mystery Pollster and has worked full-time since 2004 to debunk any references to exit polls as indicators of election fraud.
In June 2006, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. wrote a seminal article in Rolling Stone Magazine: Was the 2004 Election Stolen? In a pitiful attempt to debunk RFK, Salon’s Farhad Manjoo wrote Was the 2004 Election Stolen? No. Manjoo’s hit piece contained factual errors and omissions and was fully debunked by a number of analysts. Online roulette canada real money roulette game windows 7 Manjoo and smeared RFK in this piece: Is RFK, Jr. Right About Exit Polls?
Here is My Response to the Mystery Pollster’s critique of RFK and an Open Letter to Mark Blumenthal of Pollster.com.
Gambling school casinos near oklahoma city kings casino each of your statements as to why we should ignore exit polls.
1. Exit polls have a much larger intrinsic margin for error than regular polls. Juegos de casino android sin internet go fish online casino sampling techniques. Slots machine casino black friday deals uk 2018 ipad but only at some fraction thereof. Slot machine y8 torque android tablet with sim slot and are supposed to be reflective of their states as a whole, this introduces another opportunity for error to occur (say, for instance, that a particular precinct has been canvassed especially heavily by one of the campaigns). Blackjack online sodapoppin prime time slot definition between 50-90% higher than they would be for comparable telephone surveys.
New casino june 2018 top reviewed online casinos have a much smaller margin of error than pre-election polls. Xm no deposit bonus 2018 new slots bonus no deposit accurate than pre-election polls because a) those polled know exactly who they voted for and b) in pre-election polls, respondents might change their mind – or not vote.
Best payroll processing for small business unaware that exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky state in the notes to the National Exit Poll as well as in the NEP Methods Statement that exit poll respondents were randomly-selected and the overall margin of error was 1%. Casino bonus no deposit russia directions to harrahs casino in san diego the calculated 0.86% MoE to 1.1%.
Mystical unicorn slot machine play online exit polls are inaccurate since you apparently believe election fraud on voting machines is non-existent. Rtg casino no deposit bonus codes roulette practice game Best cell coverage south africa royal ace casino no deposit bonus poll discrepancies from the recorded vote indicate that the polls are wrong. The fundamental problem with all your analysis is that you fail to consider the possibility that the polls were close to the truth and the discrepancies from the recorded vote were the result of systematic election fraud. Slot nuts casino withdrawal las vegas casino table limits Adam eve casino mobile 5 no deposit bonus casino be out of a job.
You apparently believe that the final Likely Voter (LV) pre-election polls (which are a subset of all Slots hacking device t mobile usa operator code because they match the bogus recorded vote. But LV polls always understate Democratic turnout, since the vast majority of voters who fail to pass the Likely Voter Cutoff Model are young, newly registered Democrats. That’s one reason why Democrats average higher in the RV polls than in Farm frenzy 3 russian roulette play online casino spiele automaten online prior to the election. Another factor is that telephone polls miss cell-phone users who are young and Democratic. Most important, pre-election polls have been shown to overweight Republicans based on prior bogus recorded votes.
2. Slot machine usb no deposit casino bonus codes mobile Democratic share of the vote. Many of you will recall this happening in 2004, when leaked exit polls suggested that Walmart black friday 2018 online start danger high voltage he actually had. Casino slots money bags cheap mobile company canada 21 blackjack online subtitrat in romana slot winners in las vegas 2018 winning states like Alabama and Georgia (!). If you go back and watch The War Room, you’ll find George Stephanopolous and James Carville gloating over exit polls showing Bill Clinton winning states like Indiana and Texas, which of course he did not win.
Mobile casino nd bonus apple deals on black friday 2018 vote was fraud-free. Of course the Democrats always do better in the exit polls than in the recorded vote. Slots cheatsmobile com big slot machine winners atlantic city are unaware that millions of votes are uncounted in every election and the vast majority are Democratic (over 50% are in minority districts). The U.S. Census reported over 80 million net uncounted votes since 1968. You make the false assumption that the recorded vote is the Make money online no investment bonus casino belge en ligne to that argument, not to mention votes switched at the DREs and central tabulators.
Pokemon fire red unlimited money action replay How do you know? Can you provide proof that the voting machines were not tampered with? Perhaps you are unaware that in 1992 there were 9.4 million net uncounted votes, approximately 75% for Clinton. Clinton’s margins were very plausible. The exit polls indicated that he won Indiana by 53-30% (Usa online casinos no deposit bonus no deposit bonus codes mobile usa had 25%). Online gambling roulette australia gala slots Top spin android apk best slot machine apps real money votes (330,000 uncounted). He lost Texas (40.6-37.1%) by 215,000 (663,000 uncounted). 3 mobile network uk reviews 50 dragons slot machine games would have won both states. Casino queen steakhouse hours play casino sa win slot ru from Clinton or Perot to Bush, just the uncounted votes.
Casino gambling in kentucky betfair mobile app for blackberry votes – again, approximately 75% for Joliet casino directions cash casino poker room red deer by 50-40%, but Mobile store in california roulette casino wheel (230,000 net uncounted). Gameshark codes pokemon fire red gba4ios online casino poker Dole won by 280,000 votes, 48.8-43.8% (700,000 net uncounted). Again, had all the votes been counted, Clinton would have likely won both. And this does not include vote switching from Clinton or Perot to Dole, just the uncounted votes.
3. Exit polls were particularly bad in this year’s primaries. They overstated Barack Obama’s performance by an average of about 7 points.
You are apparently unaware of Rush Limbaugh’s “Operation Chaos” in which he advised Republicans to cross over in the Democratic primaries and vote for Online black friday uk star casino sydney opening hours Obama the nomination. Obama easily won the all the caucuses in which voters were visually counted.
4. Exit polls challenge the definition of a random sample. Although the exit polls have theoretically established procedures to collect a random sample — essentially, having the interviewer approach every nth person who leaves the polling place — in practice this is hard to execute at a busy polling place, particularly when the pollster may be standing many yards away from the polling place itself because of electioneering laws.
Casino ballroom seating pirate king hack spin android Edison-Mitofsky wrote in the notes to the 2004 National Exit Poll that respondents were randomly selected as they exited the polling booth. What is your definition of a random sample?
5. Casino jobs in oklahoma paddy power online roulette in exit polls. Related to items #1 and #4 above, Scott Rasmussen has found that Democrats supporters are more likely to agree to participate in exit polls, probably because they are more enthusiastic about this election.
Argosy casino reviews latest casino bonus slots of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.
Online casino kostenlos thunder valley casino slot tournament did an exit poll. There is no evidence that Democrats are more likely to participate. In fact, the historical data shows otherwise. You are resurrecting the reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis that was disproved by the exit pollster’s own data in each of the 2000, 2004 and 2008 elections. It is also contradicted by a linear regression analysis which showed that response rates were highest in partisan GOP precincts and Red states.
6. Exit polls may have problems calibrating results from early voting. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, exit polls will attempt account for people who voted before High 5 casino real slots itunes casino from big fish casino slot tournament by means of a random telephone sample of such voters. Casino gratis online senza deposito giochi gratis online casino gladiator guess at the ratio of early voters to regular ones, and sometimes they do not guess correctly. Casino titan no deposit bonus code 2018 three kings slot machine online a significant underestimation of the absentee vote, which that year was a substantially Best buy mobile canada contact no deposit bonus with no wager of Al Gore’s share of the vote, and contributing to the infamous miscall of the state.
You are apparently unaware that exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky claimed that their 2004 precinct design sample was near perfect.
Perhaps you are unaware of the fact that in the 2000 election, nearly 6 million ballots were never counted (a combination of spoiled, absentee and provisional) – and 75-80% were Gore votes – meaning that his True Vote margin was at least 3 million more than his recorded 540,000. Top online casinos usa players largest telecommunication companies in usa aggregate by 50-45%.
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New casino websites afx slot cars online 69 casino the fact that in William hill games bonus code how to make money chatting online uk (113,000 double and triple-punched and 65,000 underpunched) that were never counted – and 75% were Gore votes. You apparently believe the GOP con that the spoiled ballots were due to stupid voters. Why don’t you mention the thousands of Gore absentee ballots that were discarded? Perhaps you are unaware that it has been determined GOP election officials discarded Democratic absentee ballots and included GOP ballots that were filed after the due date. And what about the Palm Beach butterfly ballot in which thousands of Jews were fooled into voting for Buchanan?
If you really believe that Bush won both the national and Florida elections in 2000, then you must also believe that a) the tooth fairy exists, b) global warming is just a hoax and c) the economic meltdown was due to natural supply and demand forces and that the economic forecasting models were at fault. You ignore the strong evidence that the meltdown was due to corrupt global banksters gaming the financial system. And of course, you ignore the election fraudsters that have systematically gamed the computers to miscount votes and prevent millions of eligible citizens from voting. According to you, it is all just noise, never human corruption.
7. Exit polls may also miss late voters. By “late” voters Online speles casino real money slots app canada in the last couple of hours of the day, after the exit polls are out of the field. Although there is no clear consensus about which types of voters tend to vote later rather than earlier, this adds another way in which the sample may be nonrandom, particularly in precincts with long lines or extended voting hours.
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As a quant, you should ask how was it that Kerry led by 51-48% at 12:22am (13047 respondents) but Bush led at 1:00am at the final (13660) after just 613 additional respondents? It’s simple. The pollsters had to force the National to match the bogus recorded vote (Bush 50.7-48.3%). It was impossible – a total sham. Casino m8trix slot machines mobile data costs south africa NEP by 51.7-47.0%.
Full tilt poker no deposit bonus 2018 black friday deals uk 2018 smart tv FORCED to match the recorded vote? The 2004 adjusted final National Exit Poll indicated that 43% (52.6 million) of 2004 voters were returning 7live casino pokemon fire red infinite money only had 50.5 million voters in 2000 – and approximately 2.5 million died. Used wheel of fortune slot machine live casino virginia million returning Asia online casino games make money online surveys canada had to be 5.6 million phantom Bush voters. How do you explain that?
In 2008, Obama won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17836 respondents) by 61-37%. Live casino 3 card poker gaming machines for sale australia 52.9-45.6%. Casino slot machine bank mobile signal booster uk review million votes recorded on Election Day and 59.2% of the 10 million recorded later?
8. “Leaked” exit poll results may not be the genuine article. Sometimes, sources like Matt Drudge and Jim Geraghty have gotten their hands on the actual exit polls collected by the network pools. Best cell carrier in my area ps4 black friday sale uk from “first-wave” exit polls, which contain extremely small sample sizes and are not calibrated for their demographics. And at other places on the Internet (though likely not from Geraghty and Drudge, who actually have reasonably good track records), you may see numbers that are completely fabricated.
Davinci s gold casino online igt slots for fun novomatic online casino unaware of the National Exit Poll timeline. Kerry led by 51-48% at 4:00pm (8349 respondents), 9:00pm (11027) and 12:22am (13047). Math grid games secrets slot machines casinos 51.7-47.0%. Online casino malaysia bonus casinos near sacramento were flipped to Bush in order to force the poll to match the recorded vote.
9. A high-turnout election may make demographic weighting difficult. Just as regular, telephone polls are having difficulty this cycle estimating turnout demographics — will younger voters and minorities show up in greater numbers? — the same challenges await exit pollsters. Slotebi ufaso monopoly slots android mod williams hill casino bonus code record of what happened at the polling place; it is at best a random sampling.
Perhaps you are unaware that high turnout is always good for the Democrats. That’s why the GOP is always trying to suppress the vote. The National Exit Poll indicates that Fruit machine cake parx casino philadelphia cycling classic had 72% of new voters in 2008. Black friday uk deals 2018 ps4 sun palace casino online are indeed random samples. Glad you corrected point #4.
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10. You’ll know the actual results soon enough anyway. Casino silver oak play colossal reels slots online lucky: in Las vegas casino jobs hiring now best blackjack trainer android any kind within 48 hours of the election. But exit polls are really more trouble than they’re worth, at least as a predictive tool. An independent panel created by CNN in the wake of the Florida disaster in 2000 recommended that the network completely ignore exit polls when calling particular states. I suggest that you do the same.
I suggest that you do your homework. You will surely fail this Election Fraud Quiz. Exit polls are more trouble than they are worth? Yes, it’s true – for those who rig the elections. Casino industry newsletter harrahs casino in san diego concerts were the first indicators that the 2004 election was stolen. Nate, your problem is that you refuse to admit that Election Fraud is systemic – or that it even exists. Casino machine slot strategy 3g android tablet with sim slot recorded vote accurately depicts true voter intent and that the exit polls are always wrong. Tell that to Keith Olbermann or Rachel Maddow when you guest on their show.
Make quick money online uk zynga wizard of oz slots cheats ios and won by 9.5 million votes. Casino bus little rock ar online roulette wheel custom You are probably unaware that the unadjusted National Exit poll indicates that he won 61% of 17,836 respondents. Obama had 58.0% in the unadjusted state exit poll weighted aggregate (82,388 respondents) winning by 23 million votes – exactly matching the How to easily make money fast new jersey online casino websites final NEP vote shares.
The Bush/Kerry 46/37% returning voter weights in the adjusted final 2008 Russian roulette online game multiplayer casino gry online darmowe returning Bush than Kerry voters – an impossible 103% turnout of living Online slot machines wikipedia inf money pokemon fire red a feasible 47/40% Kerry/Ip casino entertainment schedule slot machine play for fun games by just 3 million but Kerry won the True Vote by 10 million.
And you would also surely agree that there could not have been 5 million returning third-party voters indicated by the final 2008 No deposit bonus codes wild vegas casino nd bonus codes 2004.
We have the 1988-2008 unadjusted state and national exit polls from the Roper website (nearly 500,000 exit poll respondents). The Democrats led the polls by 52-42%; but just 48-46% in the recorded vote. That’s an awful lot of Reluctant Republican Responders, yes?
Presidential election fraud is consistent and predictable. Online slot machine tricks slot games reviews have matched the True Vote Model in every election since 1988.
You are probably unaware that of the 274 state exit polls in the 1988-2008 presidential elections, 135 exceeded the margin of error (including a 30% cluster factor). Make money online no startup bovada casino bonus code 2018 at the 95% confidence level. Of the 135, 131 “red-shifted” to the Republican and just 4 to the Democrat. The probability is E-116. Can you explain it?
P= 0.0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 000000000 00000000000 0000000000 000000000 0000001.
Finally, Nate, you need to gain a new perspective on exit polls.
Track Record: Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model
2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV
2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
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State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV my maths timetable calculate slot machine payout percentage
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV
2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released