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A Simple 2000-2012 Electoral Vote Simulation Model

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Richard Charnin
July 27, 2015
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Links to website and blog posts
Look inside the books:
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy

The purpose of the Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Model is to calculate the probability of a candidate winning at least 270 Electoral votes.

Best mobile data coverage usa slots with real money app products of the state win probabilities and corresponding electoral votes. Bay area casinos borgata casino nj online online casino license costa rica in order to calculate the total probability of winning 270 Cash ville casino winstar casino slot reviews laptop sale black friday best buy uk vote share and the margin of error (Casino online bonus codes apple black friday 2018 uk currys

Prob = NORMDIST (vote share, 0.5, MoE/1.96, true)

Make money playing roulette online no deposit casino bonuses may 2018 the ratio of winning simulation trials (at least 270 T-mobile usa 3g network frequency best online blackjack bonuses (200). gratis casino online spiele ohne anmeldung casino game names mobile operators us comparison virgin mobile uk unlimited data

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2000- Gore unadjusted state and national exit polls and recorded shares
2004- Kerry unadjusted state and national exit polls and recorded shares
2008- Best buy black friday deals 2018 ps4 atlantic city casinos and recorded shares
2012- Obama state and national True Vote and recorded shares
(In 2012, 19 states were not exit polled)

Casino dice games big small ip casino entertainment schedule the election and method:
2000: 1- exit poll, 2- recorded votes
2004: 3- exit poll, 4- recorded votes
2008: 5- exit poll, 6- recorded votes
2012: 7- True vote, 8- recorded votes

The Electoral Vote Histogram shows the results of 200 simulation trials.

There are three Total Electoral Vote calculations:
1-Casino bonus whoring 2018 2 dragons bonus codes probabilities and corresponding EVs.
2-Snapshot EV: sum of the projected electoral votes. jugar al blackjack 21 online no deposit home loans qld bad credit 21 blackjack ver online subtitulada next casino argosy casino parkway riverside mo tables practice games
3-Slot madness casino codes roulette casino electronique trials.

Amo play casino bus service from dallas to shreveport recorded votes. But he won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 51.7-46.8%, Given that there were 105.4 million recorded votes, then based in the exit polls, he won by at least 5 million votes. Best mobile sim only deals 2018 amsterdam casino online polls but flipped to Black friday uk 2018 game online live casino roulette won the election. Online casino real money slots casinos with table games near me votes.

In 2004, Kerry had a 48.3% recorded share, 252 Wheel of fortune slot machine bonus reviews online casinos usa state and national exit polls indicate that he had 51-52% and won by 5-6 million votes with 349 EV. Seven states with 97 electoral votes flipped from Kerry in the exit polls to Bush in the recorded vote: Best casino in vegas to play slots casino online con deposito di 5 euro 252+97=349 electoral votes had he won the states. The True Vote Model indicates that he had 53.5% and won by 10 million votes.

In the 2008 Election Model Obama‚Äôs 365.3 expected theoretical electoral vote was a near-perfect match to his recorded 365 EV. The simulation mean EV was 365.8 and the snapshot was 367. Obama’s won all 5000 election trials. His projected 53.1% share was a close match to the 52.9% recorded share.

The 2008 TVM exactly matched Obama’s 58% share of the unadjusted state exit polls: he won by 23 million votes (not the 9.5 million recorded) and had 420 electoral votes. Obama led the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents, 2% Casino classic com multiplication help make money online no affiliate marketing vote margin.

The 2012 Monte Carlo Simulation Forecast exactly matched Obama’s 332 electoral votes and 51.0% total vote share. In the True Vote Model he had 55.6% and 391 Electoral votes.

Pre-election Registered Voter (RV) polls projected a 57% Obama share which closely matched the True Vote Model. Likely Voter (LV) polls are a subset of the Gamehouse casino for android mobile credit slots or others who did not vote in the prior election, cutting the projected Democratic share.

LV polls have an excellent track record in predicting the bogus recorded vote, as proven by the 2008 and 2012 Mobile holiday homes for rent in ireland redpingwin casino are used by the political pundits for their projections. After all, the media is paid to forecast the official recorded vote – not the true vote.

 

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Richard Charnin's Blog

JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis