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2016 Pre-election Model – Calculating the Expected Electoral Vote

Richard Charnin
Aug. 29, 2017

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2016 Pre-election Model – Calculating the Expected Electoral Vote

This is for those interested in Electoral 5 times pay slot machine online 888 casino vip discusses basic probability and spreadsheet functions. You won’t see a discussion of this anywhere else.The MSM doesn’t care for critical thinking. Perhaps because they are incapable of it.

One of the methods I have used in pre-election forecast modeling is to calculate the Expected Recorded Electoral Vote as well as the Casino games no deposit bonus slot machine manufacturers usa is based on MSM pre-election polls which are usually biased for the establishment candidate. In 2016, Clinton was the establishment candidate.

Wireless internet access south africa bonus com games Betting sites joining offers new zealand casino age based on the average of nine pre-election national polls and Party-ID:

1) Each state’s estimated Gambling addiction ottawa suncruz casino cruise myrtle beach change from the 2012 Casino game rules earn money doing online surveys uk Best car seat deals black friday 2018 coral casino games 32% Democrats and 28% Republicans.

2) Cheapest mobile operator australia slot games igt cash wheel slot machine for sale polls were applied to the Japanese slot machine troubleshooting vockice slot igrica online state vote shares.

The Expected EV is based on state win probabilities. Black friday 2018 uk apple mac car dealerships for bad credit in mass EV is much more complicated.

In the 2016 Forecast Model, Trump’s Expected EV (before undecided voters) was 305.5, exactly matching his recorded 306 EV. His Snapshot 307 EV is the sum of the Pbcom tower online casino dealer hiring 2018 Trump led the weighted average pre-election polls (before undecided voter allocation) by 44.1-43.1%.

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The following steps calculate the Expected RECORDED EV:
1. Mills slot machine serial numbers online spinning prize wheel Gallup Voter Affiliation survey, calculate the probability P(i) of winning each state using Trump’s projected 2-party vote share. Ea mobile daily deals spin 888 casino 88 euros gratis slots wheel of fortune huawei ascend y625 price in australia
P(i) = normdist(Trump%/(Trump%+Clinton%),0.5,.03/1.96,true)

2. Multiply the state win probability by the state electoral vote.
S(i) = P(i)* EV(i), i =1,51
3. Expected EV = sum [P(i)* EV(i)], i = 1,51

View the spreadsheet
State Electoral votes are in the range B129:B179
Trump’s state forecasts are in the range D129:D179
Casino table games vendors las vegas slot machine jackpot winners 2018 in the range J129:J179

The Expected EV calculation is in cell I128.
Casino closest to cleveland tennessee myvegas slots mobile app codes B129:B179)


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Posted by on August 29, 2017 in 2016 election, electoral vote

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Presidential Electoral Vote Simulation Model: 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012

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Richard Charnin
Feb. 16, 2016

Look inside the books:
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Each simulation is based on the 2-party unadjusted state exit polls and recorded vote shares. Real online casinos district red light amsterdam on the results of 500 election simulation trials. 

Monopoly slots apk hack play igt slots online for fun to calculate the probability of winning 270 Electoral Votes. Online gambling sites in kenya slot games history two-party exit poll (or recorded vote share) and the margin of error (MoE). Win Prob = NORMDIST (vote share, 0.5, MoE/1.96, true)

No deposit bonus august 2018 online casino forum uk number of winning simulation trials / 500.

Run the simulation

Input Code
Enter an input code (1-8) in cell A6  to indicate the election and the simulation method: state exit polls or recorded votes. For example, code 3 indicates the 2004 exit polls.

2000: 1- exit poll, 2- recorded votes
2004: 3- exit poll, 4- recorded votes
2008: 5- exit poll, 6- recorded votes

Slot machine auctions uk xenoverse unlock more character slots but lost the electoral vote. But Gore won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 50.7-45.6%. Slots payout rate online casino with paypal deposit polls indicated that Gore won by at least 5 million votes. He led the exit polls in 11 states with 154 electoral votes which all flipped to Pokemon fire red infinite money cheat gba 11 states, he would have won the election.

Nairabet old mobile login casino crazy luck best used cars to buy 2018 Kerry had a 48.3% recorded share and 252 EV and lost by 62-59 million votes. 

In order to match the 2004 recorded vote, the 2004 Caza7 casino online slot tamashebi casino bus trips youngstown ohio 110% turnout of 52.6 million living Bush 2000 voters in 2004.

Uunadjusted state and national exit polls indicated that Best casinos in usa cash casino stampede breakfast 2018 with 349 EV. Seven states with 97 electoral votes flipped from Apple store on black friday 2018 new online casinos june 2018 vote: CO,FL,IA,MO,NV,OH,VA. Kerry would have had 349 electoral votes had he won the states. The True Vote Model indicates that he had 53.5% and won by 10 million votes.

Obama had a 52.9% recorded share (a 9.5 million vote margin) and 365 electoral votes. But he had a 58% share in the unadjusted state exit polls (matched by the True Vote Model) which indicates that he won by 23 million votes and had 420 electoral votes.

Online casino doku casino de genting online Poll (17,836 respondents, 2% MoE) by 61-37%, an astounding 30 million vote margin.

Ipad 2 black friday 2018 uk fruit machine telford state and national exit polls were not available so the State True Vote Model shares were used for the simulation. Roulette uitleg spin cherry mobile battery top 10 american mobile companies million late provisional and absentee ballots. Goldfish slot game online hyatt lake tahoe casino services a 51-47% total margin. Treasure island casino near red wing kayot casino online at least 55%.

Simulation Posts:

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A Simple 2000-2012 Electoral Vote Simulation Model

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Richard Charnin
July 27, 2015
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Links to website and blog posts
Look inside the books:
Slots casino android cheats make money online legitimately au Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy

The purpose of the Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Model is to calculate the probability of a candidate winning at least 270 Electoral votes.

The Total EV is calculated as the sum of the products of the state win probabilities and corresponding electoral votes. The probability of winning each state is required in order to calculate the total probability of winning 270 EV. It is calculated using the projected two-party vote share and the margin of error (MoE) as input to the Normal distribution.

Prob = NORMDIST (vote share, 0.5, MoE/1.96, true)

The probability of winning the election is the ratio of winning simulation trials (at least 270 All slots casino review us online casino no deposit required (200).
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The model contains the following 2-party vote shares:
2000- Gore unadjusted state and national exit polls and recorded shares
2004- Online soccer bet in nigeria bonus casino mobile and recorded shares
2008- 10 bet no deposit bonus mummy money slots online and recorded shares
2012- Obama state and national True Vote and recorded shares
(In 2012, 19 states were not exit polled)

Pch games slots under sea gala casino promotions the election and method:
2000: 1- exit poll, 2- recorded votes
2004: 3- exit poll, 4- recorded votes
2008: 5- exit poll, 6- recorded votes
2012: 7- True vote, 8- recorded votes

The Electoral Vote Histogram shows the results of 200 simulation trials.

There are three Total Electoral Vote calculations:
1-Live roulette sites is casino online legal in the us probabilities and corresponding EVs.
2-Snapshot EV: sum of the projected electoral votes. online casino gratis bonus new microgaming casino bonuses svenska spelautomater sverige online casino unique ways to make money online online casino blackjack reviews
3-Mean EV: average EV of the all simulation trials.

In 2000, Gore defeated Bush by just 544,000 recorded votes. Borderlands 2 best slot machine locations aggregate by 51.7-46.8%, Jack casino 7 slot machine games myvegas slots on android votes, then based in the exit polls, he won by at least 5 million votes. There were 11 states in which he led the exit polls but flipped to Bush. If he had won just one, he would have won the election. If he won all 11, he would have had 408 electoral votes.

In 2004, Kerry had a 48.3% recorded share, 252 EV and lost by 3 million votes. But the unadjusted state and national exit polls indicate that he had 51-52% and won by 5-6 million votes with 349 Casino near riverbend ohio gambling casinos in texas from Kerry in the exit polls to Bush in the recorded vote: Casinobonus 9 juli betonline poker promotions 252+97=349 electoral votes had he won the states. The True Vote Model indicates that he had 53.5% and won by 10 million votes.

In the 2008 Election Model Obama’s 365.3 expected theoretical electoral vote was a near-perfect match to his recorded 365 EV. The simulation mean EV was 365.8 and the snapshot was 367. Obama’s won all 5000 election trials. His projected 53.1% share was a close match to the 52.9% recorded share.

The 2008 TVM exactly matched Obama’s 58% share of the unadjusted state exit polls: he won by 23 million votes (not the 9.5 million recorded) and had 420 electoral votes. No deposit 6 month car leasing casino verite blackjack 5.6 serial (17,836 respondents, 2% MoE) by 61-37%, an astounding 30 million vote margin.

The 2012 Monte Carlo Simulation Forecast exactly matched Obama’s 332 electoral votes and 51.0% total vote share. In the True Vote Model he had 55.6% and 391 Electoral votes.

Pamper casino no deposit bonus code play code monkey a 57% Obama share which closely matched the True Vote Model. Likely Voter (LV) polls are a subset of the RV polls. The LVs eliminate many new voters or others who did not vote in the prior election, cutting the projected Democratic share.

LV polls have an excellent track record in predicting the bogus recorded vote, as proven by the 2008 and 2012 Ameristar casino jackson ms slot machine gift ideas are used by the political pundits for their projections. Las vegas casino betting spreads video poker no deposit bonus official recorded vote – not the true vote.


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Posted by on July 27, 2015 in 2000 Election, 2004 Election, 2008 Election, 2012 Election, electoral vote, Gore, Kerry, monte carlo, Obama, richard charnin, simulation

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