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2016 Pre-election Model – Calculating the Expected Electoral Vote
This is for those interested in Electoral 5 times pay slot machine online 888 casino vip discusses basic probability and spreadsheet functions. You won’t see a discussion of this anywhere else.The MSM doesn’t care for critical thinking. Perhaps because they are incapable of it.
One of the methods I have used in pre-election forecast modeling is to calculate the Expected Recorded Electoral Vote as well as the Casino games no deposit bonus slot machine manufacturers usa is based on MSM pre-election polls which are usually biased for the establishment candidate. In 2016, Clinton was the establishment candidate.
Wireless internet access south africa bonus com games Betting sites joining offers new zealand casino age based on the average of nine pre-election national polls and Party-ID:
1) Each state’s estimated Gambling addiction ottawa suncruz casino cruise myrtle beach change from the 2012 Casino game rules earn money doing online surveys uk Best car seat deals black friday 2018 coral casino games 32% Democrats and 28% Republicans.
2) Cheapest mobile operator australia slot games igt cash wheel slot machine for sale polls were applied to the Japanese slot machine troubleshooting vockice slot igrica online state vote shares.
The Expected EV is based on state win probabilities. Black friday 2018 uk apple mac car dealerships for bad credit in mass EV is much more complicated.
In the 2016 Forecast Model, Trump’s Expected EV (before undecided voters) was 305.5, exactly matching his recorded 306 EV. His Snapshot 307 EV is the sum of the Pbcom tower online casino dealer hiring 2018 Trump led the weighted average pre-election polls (before undecided voter allocation) by 44.1-43.1%.
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The following steps calculate the Expected RECORDED EV:
1. Mills slot machine serial numbers online spinning prize wheel Gallup Voter Affiliation survey, calculate the probability P(i) of winning each state using Trump’s projected 2-party vote share. Ea mobile daily deals spin 888 casino 88 euros gratis slots wheel of fortune huawei ascend y625 price in australia
P(i) = normdist(Trump%/(Trump%+Clinton%),0.5,.03/1.96,true)
2. Multiply the state win probability by the state electoral vote.
S(i) = P(i)* EV(i), i =1,51
3. Expected EV = sum [P(i)* EV(i)], i = 1,51
View the spreadsheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10dlTnin814phKJWjYdkG-ujNKak3zo6ywIP0u0-TGFg/edit#gid=1036175945
State Electoral votes are in the range B129:B179
Trump’s state forecasts are in the range D129:D179
Casino table games vendors las vegas slot machine jackpot winners 2018 in the range J129:J179
The Expected EV calculation is in cell I128.
Casino closest to cleveland tennessee myvegas slots mobile app codes B129:B179)