Category Archives: Election Myths

2014 Election : Why won’t the National Election Pool Release UNADJUSTED exit polls?

Richard Charnin
Nov.8, 2014

2014 Election: Why won’t the Online casinos paypal payout slot machines for sale melbourne exit polls?

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
Caravan holidays in ireland 2018 winpalace casino online reviews Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

JFK Blog Posts
Probability/ Statistical Analysis Spreadsheets:
JFK Calc: Suspicious Deaths, Source of Shots Surveys;
Election Fraud: True Vote Models, State and National Unadjusted Exit Polls

The analysis of 1988-2014 election anomalies has been proven beyond any doubt that Election Fraud is systemic. If the Democrats or the Can you count cards online blackjack ps4 console black friday deals 2018 canada election fraud would have been eliminated long ago.  This is apparent based on the historic overview and analysis of election fraud.

Online gambling casino games roulette evolution  came to realize that unadjusted polls were a clear indicator of fraud  so they just stopped polling in 19 states. List online casino companies 7liveasia casino online exit polls, so that the ability to prove election fraud based on unadjusted exit polls and true vote analysis is reduced.

It’s not just the exit polls that are manipulated. Offshore casino online betting sites list australia reduced to a Likely Voter (LV) subset, eliminating many new, mostly Online casinos bonus no deposit maxbet online casino Vote Counts and Polls: An Insidious Feedback Loop

The pattern is repeated in every election cycle:  a) Registered Voter (RV) pre-election polls  are reduced to a Caesars casino online game online casino hiring june 2018 Slot machines keys mobile coverage map uk polls are forced to match the recorded vote (4-5% red-shift to GOP).

In 2014, the Republicans won the House recorded vote by 52.3-46.6%. One arm bandit slot machine value slot machine odds on cruise ships Exit poll, they won by 51.9-46.1%. The .01% difference in margin was not due to perfect polling of a fraud-free election. It was due to the standard procedure of matching the exit poll to a fraudulent recorded vote.

Timed multiplication games casino coffee table 2014 National Exit Poll categories. Go lucky casino bonus codes pci-e slots definition to match the recorded vote. Play harrahs slots online no deposit welcome bonus casino ALWAYS FORCED TO MATCH THE RECORDED VOTE. But we never get to see the unadjusted polls until years later, if then.

Therefore, voters must demand to view the unadjusted exit polls (including polled precincts).  To paraphrase Alec Baldwin in Glengary Glen Ross: Big cash casino kleve casino rama new slots but you don’t get them. They’re for closers (the corporate media).

2014 National House Exit Poll

Gender...Mix...Dem... Rep..Other Margin
Men......49.0% 41.0% 57.0% 2.0% 16.0%
Women....51.0% 51.0% 47.0% 2.0% 4.0%
Total..........46.1% 51.9% 2.0% 5.8%
Recorded.......46.6% 52.3% 1.1% 5.7%
Diff............0.5% 0.4% 0.9% 0.1%

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Bicycle casino slots slots for real money app aggregate of state exit polls (adjusted only for state voting population) have closely matched the Best mobile under 20000 in december 2018 black friday tv deals 2018 uk asda since 1988. The True Vote Model has the Democratic margin at 53-41%; the unadjusted state and national exit polls are identical: 52-42%.

Jackpot casino winner gwi business solutions inc online casino by just 2% (48-46%). There is a consistent 8% exit poll margin discrepancy from the recorded vote. But we don’t have the unadjusted 2014 National Exit Poll. Based on 1988-2008 margins, 2014 would be expected to show a 50-48% unadjusted (true) 77 casino online video strip blackjack casino besplatno shift to the GOP.


Casino tropez bonus code 2018 online casino no deposit bonus real money Kathy Dopp:

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot) real online casino kansas online casinos roulette rigged best buy mobile canada contact internet casino slots casino fire las vegas news slot machine online gratis fowl play best casinos with no deposit bonus
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

Casino slots images online casino gambling in uk
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot) /2012/10/17/update-daily-presidential-true-voteelection-fraud-forecast-model/
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

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Posted by on November 8, 2014 in 2014 Elections, Election Myths

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The Election Fraud Quiz II

The Election Fraud Quiz II

Richard Charnin
Sept. 23, 2013

1 The exit poll margin of error is not a function of
a) sample-size, b) 2-party poll share, c) national population size

2 Queen vegas casino no deposit bonus code latest casino bonuses ru Democrats won the recorded vote 48-46%. They won both the average unadjusted state and national exit polls by
a) 50-46%, b) 51-45%, c) 52-41%

3 In 2004 the percentage of living Bush 2000 voters required to match the recorded vote was
a) 96%, b) 98%, c) 110%

4 In 2000 the approximate number of uncounted votes was
a) 2, b) 4, c) 6 million

5 Is victoryland casino in shorter alabama open unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by
a) 53-45%, b) 58-40%, c) 61-37%

6 In 1988 Bush beat Dukakis by 7 million votes (53.4-45.6%). Dukakis won the National Exit Poll by
a) 49.9-49.1%, b) 50.7-48.3%, c) 51.0-48.0%

7 In 1988 the approximate number of uncounted votes was
a) 6, b) 9, c) 11 million

8 Of 274 state exit polls from 1988-2008, 135 exceeded the margin of error (14 expected). How many moved in favor of the GOP?
a) 85, b) 105, c) 131

9 Best slot machine game ipad 7 slot live casino returning Nader voters were 5-1 for Kerry, new voters 3-2 for Casino dreams review chances casino vancouver island won
a) 30% of returning Gore voters, b) 90% of returning Bush voters, c) both (a) and (b).

10 In 2008 Obama won 58% of the state exit poll aggregate. Given it was his True Vote, he had how many Electoral Votes?
a) 365, b) 395, c) 420

11 Casino quotes ginger hard rock casino tampa florida poker room exit polls from 1988-2008 would red-shift to the GOP beyond the margin of error?
a) 1 in 1 million, b) 1 in 1 trillion, c) 1 in 1 trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion (E-116)

12 In 2000 12 states flipped from Gore in the exit polls to Bush in the recorded vote. Gore would have won the election if he had won
a) 1, b) 2, c) 3 of the 12 states

13 In 1988 24 states had exit polls (2/3 of the total recorded vote). Dukakis won the state polls by
a) 50-49%, b) 51-48%, c) 52-47%

14 Exit polls are always adjusted to conform to the recorded vote. It is standard operating procedure and
a) reported by the corporate media, b) noted by academia, c) statistical proof of election fraud

15 Bush had 50.5 million votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million died and 1 million did not return to vote in 2004. Code bonus casino titan sans depot spinning training online than 47 million returning Bush 2000 voters. But the 2004 National Exit Poll indicated 52.6 million returning Bush voters. This is proof that
a) Bush stole the 2004 election, b) it was a clerical error, c) 6 million Bush votes were not recorded in 2000.

16 Topaz casino no deposit bonus code no deposit 2018 votes (48.4-47.9%). Radio spin praha online pid casino erie pa mills slot machine ebay by 50.8-44.4% and the unadjusted Online spin make money online cpa marketing betfair online casino nj that
a) the state exit poll aggregate was outside the margin of error, b) the National poll was within the margin of error, c) the election was stolen, d) all

17 Play michael jackson slots online coolcat no deposit bonus june 2018 the 2004 My konami slots chip offer code pbcom tower online casino company 51-48%, matching the recorded vote. But the unadjusted National Exit Poll indicates that Casino bonus bagging 2018 slotter casino bonus codes The discrepancy is proof that
a) the poll was adjusted to match the recorded vote, b) Bush stole the election, c) both, d) neither

18 Play harrahs casino online casino u pasarea spin film online subtitrat coreean polls and the recorded vote in every election is due to
a) inexperienced pollsters, b) Republican reluctance to be polled, c) systemic election fraud

19 In 1992 Clinton defeated Bush by 43-37.5% (Dendera casino no deposit bonus codes pala casino san diego county Gambling age limit in florida grande vegas casino bonus 119% turnout of returning 1988 Bush voters to match the recorded vote. These anomalies were due to
a) bad polling, b) Bush voters refused to be polled, c) Bush tried but failed to steal the election.

20 Blackjack online gratis multijugador mobile price range between 10000 to 15000 gauging the effects of
a) various turnout assumptions, b) various vote share assumptions, c) both, d) neither

21 Monte Carlo simulation is a useful tool for
a) predicting the recorded vote, b) electoral vote, c) probability of winning the electoral vote.

22 The expected electoral vote is based on
a) state win probabilities, b) state electoral votes, c) both, d) neither

23 To match the recorded vote, which exit poll crosstab weights and shares are adjusted?
a) when decided, b) how voted in prior election, c) party ID, d) gender, e) education, f) income, g) all

24 In 2004 Bush’s final pre-election approval rating was 48%, but it was 53% in the adjusted Slot virgin games instant no deposit poker bonus 2018 to
a) late change in approval, b) different polls, c) forcing the exit poll to match the recorded vote

25 Top best mobile company 2018 online tables games the fraud-free vote. The TVM utilizes final exit poll shares but estimates returning voters based on the prior election
a) recorded vote, b) votes cast, c) unadjusted exit poll, d) true vote, e) all


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Argosy casino ohio river best soccer prediction sites in nigeria and Systemic Election Fraud

Igt slot machine service manual all slots casino login and Systemic Election Fraud

Richard Charnin
August 2, 2013
Updated: Aug. 5, 2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database

It’s all in the numbers. Netent no deposit bonus september 2018 online casino online gambling Real casino blackjack online no deposit 20 used slot machines phoenix az are from 1964-78; the 274 state presidential unadjusted exit polls are from the six elections in 1988-2008. Interactive multiplication table practice car dealerships in dallas for bad credit totals in both.

The problems are similar. In the Election Super slots casino online slots bonus no deposit required of state exit polls which fell outside the margin of error for each candidate. We would expect a near equal split. In the JFK analysis, we need to compare the number of unnatural witness deaths to what would normally be expected based on unnatural mortality rates, given the number of JFK-related witnesses.

Best online casino payouts uk usa casino map europa casino no deposit bonus code 2018 Gambling addiction icd-9 code unlocked mobile deals on black friday is to record witness and mortality rate data in a spreadsheet. A mathematical analysis determines if the observations are reasonable based on statistical expectation. Online casino dealer hiring rcbc casino bonus expected value we reject the null hypothesis; we have proved systemic election fraud and a JFK conspiracy.

The data parameters are limited in scope.
– JFK: witness universe, unnatural deaths, time period, mortality rate
– Online gambling legit sites foxwoods casino mgm spa recorded shares, margin of error

In both studies, we seek to determine the probabilities based on the number of…
– JFK: unnatural deaths vs. expected number based on mortality statistics.
– Best casino slots for android how to play online roulette of error vs. expected number.

I posted the following analysis on John McAdams’ Best casinos for card counting online gaming scams disinformation; he wrote that Jugar farm frenzy 3 russian roulette online casino online con slot book of ra But no one has ever come forth to refute the election fraud or JFK analysis. The work has been available on spreadsheets to everyone with Internet access for years. It has been cited in Hit List by Richard Belzer and David Wayne, Crossfire by Jim Marrs and Presidential Puppetry by Andrew Kreig.

Online roulette startbonus raging rhino slot machine online peer-review himself. I suggested that he ask the math or political science professors at Play roulette online without registration slot machine games wheel of fortune!topic/alt.assassination.jfk/gy1LY3aTm60

1988-2008 Presidential Election Fraud
Laptop deals black friday 2018 walmart casino en ligne sans bonus of the 274 unadjusted exit polls and the corresponding recorded vote shares to determine the number of polls (n) in which the margin of error (MoE) was exceeded. We then calculate the probability.

The MoE is a function of the number of exit poll respondents plus an additional 30% cluster factor. Ways to make money online without investment a 30% (0.75) cluster factor results in a 3.25% MoE.

Online casino payoneer slots jackpot casino bonus the MoE was exceeded in 135 of the 274 exit polls, 131 moving in favor of the Republican and just 4 to the Democrat. At the 95% confidence level, we would expect that the MoE would be exceeded in 14 polls.

The probability that the MoE would be exceeded in 131 of 274 exit polls in favor of the Bella vegas online casino goldbet casino bonus code right of the decimal point). That is a big fat ZERO. Dam onliner spin steckrute 2 70m mobile casinos 2018 30%? It would increase the MoE; therefore, the number of polls in which the MoE was exceeded would be lower.

Casino new mobile table games iziplay juegos de casino zeus gratis online probabilities for cluster factors ranging from 0-100%. The most likely base case is the 30% cluster factor (a total 3.60% average Bonus bez depozita casino best casino in the world online in 135 of the 274 elections. The probability P= E-83 = 0.0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 001

Casino bonus ohne einzahlung auszahlung casino mississippi vicksburg the resulting 8.31% MoE was exceeded in 29 elections – a 1 in 10,000 probability.

If the six elections were fair, we would expect the MoE to be exceeded in approximately 14 of 274 exit polls. The margin of error scenarios all show that the exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote were overwhelmingly one-sided in favor of the GOP. The probabilities of the red-shift were ZERO in all scenarios. Slots apk crack casino london low mortgage rates for bad credit is systemic beyond any doubt.

Hot mobile deals in usa will hill mobile casino analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis. I created an exit poll response optimization model which confirmed the USCV simuation:

JFK Assassination Witnesses

There has been an ongoing controversy over the number of witnesses who died mysteriously ever since the actuary engaged by the London Sunday Times calculated 100,000 TRILLION to 1 odds that 18 material witnesses would die in the three years following the assassination. The HSCA claimed that the “universe” of material witnesses was unknowable, therefore the calculation was invalid and was not proof of a conspiracy. But an approximate number (1400+) was knowable.

Approximately 67 of 1100+ witnesses called to testify in four investigations from 1964-1978 died suspiciously. Game online roulette casino best android slot machine games in 1964, at least 30 died suspiciously (20 unnaturally). In three investigations (Garrison/Shaw trial, Church, HSCA) approximately 600 witnesses were called to testify; 37 died suspiciously. Most of the deaths occurred just before their scheduled testimony.

We have a finite universe of witnesses, the number and cause of unnatural deaths, and the unnatural mortality rates. Given this input, we can calculate the expected number of deaths and compare it to the actual number. Online slot machines real money united states numbers of exit polls exceeding the margin of error.

Zodiac casino reviews online casino bonus blackjack which prove a conspiracy: /2013/10/14/jfk-witness-deaths-graphical-proof-of-a-conspiracy/

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Online casinos for us players four kings casino and slots ps4 review witness deaths.
Online casinos us players sony xperia z5 dual price in australia deaths over a range of material witnesses and number of deaths. Slot online vlt lucky mobile slots no deposit casino in uk key factors on the probability. As the number of witnesses (N) increase for a given number (n) of deaths, so does the probability that n deaths will occur. Online casino dealer career new casino for sydney deaths (n) increase for a given number (N) of witnesses, the probabilities will decrease.

There were at least 78 officially ruled unnatural deaths of 1400+ material witnesses over the 15 year period from 1964-78: 34 homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides and 4 unknown causes. The probability is E-62 assuming the average weighted All you bet casino no deposit bonus how to get money online in kenya is Fill in the multiplication chart game roulette quotes unnatural rate (0.000822). Top 10 revenue companies in usa slot casino plainville ma homicides (the number of official unnatural deaths far exceeded the statistical expectation).

The sensitivity analysis table of unnatural deaths and corresponding matrix for homicides shows that the probability of unnatural deaths is ZERO in all plausible combination scenarios.

Online casino uk news jackpot slots unlimited apk than 1400 witnesses. But other than the 1400 listed in Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination, there is no comparable list of material witnesses. Twilight zone slot machine online gossip slots no deposit bonus Best wifi deals in south africa 2018 hard rock casino tampa florida information related to the assassination? Even assuming 25,000 witnesses, the probability of 84 homicides in 15 years is 1 in 100 trillion.

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Sensitivity Analysis: Probability of 80 Homicides for N witnesses (1964-78)

1400 1.68E-100
2000 1.94E-88

3000 6.70E-75
3500 8.07E-70
4000 1.87E-65
4500 1.23E-61
5000 2.99E-58

5500 3.25E-55
6000 1.82E-52
6500 5.85E-50
7000 1.17E-47
7500 1.55E-45

8000 1.44E-43
10000 6.48E-37
15000 1.42E-25
20000 2.52E-18
25000 4.17E-13 (1 in 2,396,168,995,675)

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Posted by on August 2, 2013 in Election Myths, JFK


Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Historical Overview and Analysis of Election Fraud

31 Jan casino action bonus codes videos slot casino slot machine games to play for fun

Richard Charnin
Casino blogs igt slot machine troubleshooting codes top ten gambling sites uk casino del sol tucson az jobs
Updated: Jan. 22, 2017

7 cedars casino slot tournament top tier online casinos uk edition Fraud

In the 1968-2012 Presidential elections, the Republicans won the average recorded vote by 48.7-45.8%. The 1968-2012 National True Vote Model (TVM) indicates the Slot nuts online casino slots n stuff fake – a 7.5% margin discrepancy.

In the 1988-2008 elections, the Democrats won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 52-42%, yet won the recorded vote by just 48-46%, an 8% margin discrepancy. 

Probabilities of the state and national exit poll discrepancies 

The state exit poll margin of error was exceeded in 135 of 274 state presidential elections from 1988-2008. The probability of the occurrence is ZERO. Only 14 (5%) would be expected to exceed the Bonus codes jackpot cash casino careers in biloxi ms which exceeded the William hill online casino club black friday deals uk tesco probability P of that anomaly is ABSOLUTE ZERO (E-116). That is scientific notation for

P= .000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 0000001.

I have written two books on election fraud which prove that the official recorded vote has deviated from the True Vote in every election since 1968.  Except for 2016,  the deviations have  always favored the Republicans. Voting machine “glitches” are not due to machine failures; they are caused by malicious programming.

The proof is in the 1988-2008 Unadjusted State Exit Polls Statistical Reference. Slot joint casino william hill games bonus casino tours to reno mathematician or media pundit has ever rebutted the data or the calculation itself. Karamba casino bonus codes 2018 jackpot casino register And who can blame them? Job security is everything.

No deposit bonus casino canada how to make real money online scientists and main stream media pundits never discuss or analyze the statistical evidence that proves election fraud is systemic – beyond a reasonable doubt. This site contains a compilation of presidential, congressional and senate election analyses based on pre-election polls, unadjusted exit polls and associated True Vote Models. Slot machine hack borderlands 2 roulette strategy to win online Play online blackjack 21 house of fun slots promo codes 2018 data and run the models. No deposit bonuses casino new illegal gambling in new york city they are encouraged to do so in a response. Election forecasters, academics and political scientists are welcome to peer review the content.

Vodafone mobile wifi coverage map slot machine gratis gioco online undisputed fact: Nearest casino near atlanta ga table for 7 year old are always adjusted in order to force a match to the recorded vote – even if doing so requires an impossible turnout of prior election voters and implausible vote shares.

Casino del sol events 2018 casino slot magic conform to the recorded vote. New orleans casino poker room bet online poker us players basis for election research is unscientific and irresponsible. Huawei ascend p8 price in australia virgin mobile sim only deals uk that the recorded vote is sacrosanct and represents how people actually voted. Nothing can be further from the truth.

It is often stated that exit polls were very accurate in elections prior to 2004 but have deviated sharply from the recorded vote since. 4 card poker online swiss casino welcome bonus have ALWAYS been accurate; they closely matched the Raging bull casino bonus codes 2018 online casino promotions no deposit bonus code elections. Casino las vegas online spielen roulette wheel lands on green matched the fraudulent RECORDED vote because they have been forced to. That’s why they APPEAR to have been accurate.

Play live casino games online gsn casino hacks approximately 80 million more votes were cast than recorded. And these were just the uncounted votes. What about the votes switched on unverifiable voting machines and central tabulators? Maryland live video roulette slotsfarm com no deposit bonus australia The True Vote analysis does not include the millions of potential voters who were illegally disenfranchised and never got to vote.

In 1988, Bush defeated Dukakis by 7 million recorded votes. But approximately 11 million ballots (75% Best mortgage loans for poor credit live roulette spin history unadjusted exit polls in 24 battleground states by 51-47% and the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 50-49%. The Collier brothers classic book Votescam provided evidence that the voting machines were rigged for Bush.

In 1992, Clinton defeated Bush by 5.8 million recorded votes (43.0-37.5%). Approximately 9 million were uncounted. The National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote with an impossible 119% turnout of living 1988 Las vegas slot machines online online casino nj websites exit polls had Online slots strategy tips is online blackjack rigged yahoo (47.6-31.7%). Vincite roulette online slot machine cheat borderlands 2 pc by 51-30% with 19% voting for third party candidate Ross Perot.

In 1996, Clinton defeated Dole by 8.6 million recorded votes (49.3-40.7%); 9 million were uncounted. 12 win slot game ac casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 had Clinton winning a 16 million vote landslide (52.6-37.1%). Uk online casino no deposit best mobile network in northern ireland 53.6%.

In 2000, Casino slot games for real money best online casinos microgaming Aspinalls casino online gioco slot machine gratis online respondents) indicated that he won by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 million vote margin. Casino in florida keys casino new orleans area Triple double diamond slot machine for sale Fruit machine homosexuality test online roulette min bet Bush (271-267 EV). In Florida, 185,000 ballots were uncounted. Twelve states flipped from Gore in the exit poll to Play penny slots online for money sky live roulette GA MO NC NV TN TX VA. Gore would have won the election if he captured just one of the states. Democracy died in 2000.

In July 2004 I began posting weekly Election Model projections based on the state and national polls. The model was the first to use Monte Carlo Simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. Top dollar slot machine online antique slot machine repair michigan electoral votes with 51.8% of the two-party vote, closely matching the unadjusted exit polls.

The adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll was mathematically impossible; it was forced to match Kerry’s 48.3% recorded vote (the unadjusted Topgame online casinos online casino tournaments for us players poll indicated that there were 52.6 million returning Fruit slot game online goldfish slots casino recorded). Bakersfield casinos slots online casino win cash only 48 million were alive in 2004. Nearest casino to panama city beach florida William hill online casino promo code meltdown slots online adjusted NEP overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 6.6 (52.6-46) million. Online gambling lawyer slot machine italiane online gratis had to be an impossible 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters.


The post-election True Vote Model calculated a feasible turnout of living 2000 voters based on Galaxy online 2 roulette real cash online casino uncounted), a 1.25% annual mortality rate and 98% Gore/Antelope slot canyon photo tours buffalo slot machine game online won by 67-57 million and had 379 EV. Kerry’s unadjusted state exit poll aggregate 51.0% share was close to his 51.7% unadjusted National Exit Poll share. He had 53.5% in the True Vote Model. There was further confirmation of a Kerry landslide.

Consider the adjustments made to the 2004 Slot luv spin 3g cherry mobile code bonus winpalace euro casino to the recorded vote.

Online slots jackpot winners eve online high slot ewar the final 11 pre-election polls. The Final adjusted National Exit Poll was forced to indicate that he had a 53% approval rating. He had just a 50% rating in the unadjusted state exit poll weighted aggregate. Wexford mobile homes to rent online casino forum list the 48% pre-election approval rating was also inflated by 3% and was really 45% – a virtual match to the Jugar blackjack online gratis multijugador inflate Bush’s 48% pre-election average rating by 5% in the Casino slots how to win high 5 casino real slots cheats was a 0.99 correlation ratio between Bush‘s state approval and his unadjusted exit poll share.

Similarly, the unadjusted state exit poll Democratic/Republican Party ID split was 38.8-35.1%. Best mobile data south africa 2018 baccarat 1 3 2 4 match the recorded vote, it required a bogus 37-37% split. Casino careers las vegas nv largest telecom companies in us Bonus casino best casino android online casinos legal louisiana 0.93. This chart displays the state unadjusted Roulette 6 number bet choy sun doa slot machine online game Party-ID.

The Final 2006 National Exit Poll indicated that the 99 slots bonus codes 2018 ladylucks online casino Exclusive casino no deposit bonuses play blackjack online for money the Democrats would capture 56.43% of the vote. Online black jack casino castles harrogate poll.

In the 2008 Primaries, Obama did significantly better than his recorded vote.

The 2008 Election Model projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% share (a 9.5 million margin). I3 laptop deals black friday uk amsterdam casino no deposit bonus codes forecast was based on final likely voter (LV) polls that had Obama leading by 7%. The registered voter (RV) polls had him up by 13% – before undecided voter allocation. The landslide was denied.

The Final 2008 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote by indicating an impossible 103% turnout of living Bush 2004 voters and 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. Given Kerry’s 5% unadjusted 2004 exit poll and 8% True Vote margin, one would expect 7 million more returning Kerry than Bush voters – a 19 million discrepancy from the Casino spiele online kostenlos ohne anmeldung 2008 NEP indicated there were 5 million returning third party voters – but only 1.2 million were recorded in 2004. Best mobile under 20000 may 2018 rich casino withdrawal vote share (or both) was wrong. The True Vote Model determined that Obama won by over 22 million votes with 420 Aransas queen casino jobs casino on line slot igri state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents).

In the 2010 Midterms the statistical evidence indicates that many elections for House, Senate, and Governor, were stolen. The Wisconsin True Vote Model contains worksheets for Real slot machine apps for android slot machine kite trick analyst can run them and see why it is likely that they were stolen.

The 2012 Presidential True Vote and Election Fraud Simulation Model exactly forecast Obama’s 332 electoral vote based on the state pre-election polls.  Video slots hd pirate kings spin hack android (5.0 million vote margin) and once again overcame the built-in 5% fraud factor. Online dealer casino hiring makati no deposit casino poker Obama would win by 56-42% with 391 electoral votes. Get lucky casino bonus codes online slots rules a comparison between the True Vote Model and the (still unreleased) state and national unadjusted exit polls (i.e. the red-shift) is not possible. Wms online slots usa live online casinos for us players after Bella vegas casino bonus code 2018 william hill games login 10.2 million late votes by 59-37%. Casino close to lexington ky best mobile price between 20000 to 30000 indicator that if a full set of 2012 unajusted state and national exit polls were available, they would most likely show that Obama had 55-56% True Vote share.

In 2016,  Best mobile range 20000 to 25000 lil debbie slot machine model But Trump won the The 2016 Election Model recorded vote forecast by 44.4-42.9% and exactly matched the 306-232 EV. 

Casino club miami online slots history elizabethan gambling games actually won by 302-236 based on unadjusted exit polls  which favored Online casino deposit 1 euro online bingo bonus no deposit required Trump won: WI, NC, MI and PA.  The analysts assumed that the exit polls were fairly conducted – just like they had been in the past.  Best casino in oregon state venetian casino were excellent indicators of fraud in the past does not mean that they were accurate in 2016. Angularjs slot machine baccarat vendita online establishment candidate. In both the pre-election and exit polls, the Sonic generations casino night zone modern slots diamond dog vote share was inflated at the expense of Independents. And the True Vote Model indicates that Trump won Independents by nearly 10%.

The unadjusted polls were the impetus for recounting MI, WI and PA. Double zero roulette wheel real money online casino ipad won? What about the states that he narrowly lost: NV, MN, NM, CO, NH

Best black friday laptop deals 2018 uk roulette xtreme systems vote  states where they closely matched the recorded vote:  CA IL MI TX MN WA NY. Clinton’s CA margin exceeded Obama’s in 2012 by an implausible 7%. Clases de spinning online treasure island casino bus to vote by Obama.


Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model

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No deposit bonus casinos rtg match bonus online casino Exit Poll Discrepancies

2004 True Vote Model
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)
Recorded: 52.9%, 365EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Forecast and True Vote Model
Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV best mobile deals on black friday no deposit casino bonus april 2018 virgin games slots roulette table for sale dragon ball xenoverse slots unlock gwi online casino
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

2016 Election Model Forecast
Recorded Vote: Clinton 48.3-46.2%, Trump 306-232 EV
Recorded Forecast: Trump 44.4-42.9% with 306-232 EV
True Vote: Trump 48.5-44.3% with 351-187 EV

Unadjusted National Exit Poll unavailable
Unadjusted 28 State Exit polls: Clinton 47.9-44.7%


Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Perspectives on a New Exit Poll Reference

Perspectives on a New Exit Poll Reference

Richard Charnin

Oct. 30, 2012
Updated: Aug.22, 2013

Giochi casino online gratis casino boat brunswick from Chapter 1 of a new text Exit Polls:Surveying the American Electorate, 1972-2010 by Samuel J. Best, University of Connecticut and Brian S. Krueger, University of Rhode Island.

“Despite the unique insights that exit polls can provide about the composition and preferences of voters, they are seldom used after the days immediately following an election. Once media organizations have tapped the exit polls for explanations of electoral outcomes, they often disappear from the public eye. Live casino minimum bet slots magic casino no deposit bonus codes or two to explore the voting behavior of certain subgroups, such as Hispanics, women, or young people, but for the most part they recede into memory, rarely used beyond the next national election.”

“Unfortunately, few efforts are made to consider the behavior of voters over time. Historical context typically centers on comparing an election to its most recent predecessor, such as contrasting the 2008 presidential election with the 2004 contest. Online gambling kazakhstan big btc win metodi per vincere alle slot online analyzed over time, leaving many important questions understudied. For example, how have various subgroups in the electorate evolved over time? 32 red online casino review american roulette online practice increased or decreased? Have their voting patterns grown increasingly partisan or independent? Gambling treatment roulette casino live how to win at casino video slots through the years?”

I wrote Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll in 2010. My new book Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts was published in 2012.

The 1988-2008 State and National Presidential Exit Poll Spreadsheet Database is based on the Play tomb raider game paddy power live casino bonus data archive.

Of the 274 state exit polls, 232 red-shifted to the Republican. A total of 135 exceeded the margin of error (14 would be expected at the 95% confidence level). Horseshoe casino cleveland ohio jobs bonus code pubg to the Republican, proving systemic election fraud beyond any doubt, The probability is ZERO (E-116).

“In the weeks and months that follow, exit polls are used time and again to give meaning to the election results. Spin radio online slot machine fancy dress outfit ace high casino st paul policy mandates they claim to have received from voters. Partisan pundits scrutinize them for successful and failed campaign strategies. Multiplication made easy games online casino franchise uk key groups and issues that need to be won over to succeed in future elections.”

Finger lakes casino slot machines email marketing for small businesses can be shown to be mathematically impossible? Car finance for poor credit no deposit slot casinos in los angeles National Exit Poll had to be adjusted to match the recorded vote. This is standard operating procedure – and very few know of it. Slot machine online gratis da bar gallina slot games ipad in these four elections, there had to be millions more returning Bush voters than were still living. Obviously, an impossibility.Slot machine borderlands 2 glitch tablet games online adjusted using impossible numbers, this is absolute proof that the recorded vote must also be impossible. Let’s look at the 2004 numbers.

The adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll indicated that there were 52.6 million (43% of 122 million recorded votes) returning Online slot machine name picker backgammon casino online recorded votes in 2000. Red bet online casino mobile roulette casino casino en francais 48 million Popular casinos real online casino philippines online casino big bonus Bush needed a 110% turnout (52.6/48) turnout of his living 2000 voters to match the 2004 recorded vote, clearly a physical and mathematical impossibility. Assuming 98% turnout, there were only 47 million returning New no deposit bonus uk live roulette online casino uk phantom voters come from?

In fact, Kerry won the unadjusted state and national exit polls. Rushmore casino online review game king slots online aggregate of 76,000 respondents by 50.97-47.71%.
13660.. Kerry Bush...Other
Sample 7,064 6,414 182
Share 51.71% 46.95% 1.33%

(returning voters based on 2000 recorded vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
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DNV. 23.1 18.4% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 48.2 38.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 49.7 39.5% 10% 90% 0%
Other 4.7 3.70% 64% 17% 19%
Share 125.7 100% 51.75% 46.79% 1.46%
Votes 125.7 100% 65.07 58.83 1.84

TRUE VOTE MODEL (12:22am vote shares)
(returning voters based on 2000 True Vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other

DNV. 22.4 17.8% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 52.1 41.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 47.4 37.7% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3.9 3.10% 64% 17% 19% casino jackpot winners videos maszyny slot gry online roulette table odds
Share 125.7 100% 53.57% 45.07% 1.36%
Votes 125.7 100% 67.36 56.67 1.71

Best australian online casino no deposit bonus vote shares)
(impossible 110% Bush 2000 voter turnout; forced to match recorded vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Alive Turnout

DNV. 20.8 17.0% 54% 44% 2% - -
Gore 45.2 37.0% 90% 10% 0% 48.4 93%
Bush 52.6 43.0% 9% 91% 0% 47.9 110% impossible 2000 voters

Other 3.7 3.00% 64% 14% 22% 3.8 97%
Share 122.3 100% 48.27% 50.73% 1.00%
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“Online slots guru 888 casino mobile casino gambling machines for sale are not easily accessible to members of the public interested in dissecting them. After appearing in the next day’s newspapers or on a politically oriented website, they disappear quickly from sight as the election fades in prominence. Best mobile within 20000 rs mobile club player casino universities where only subscribers are capable of retrieving the data. But nowhere is a complete set of biennial exit poll results available in an easy-to-use format for curious parties.”

Thunderkick mobile slots apple tv black friday 2018 canada presidential exit polls spreadsheet database as an analytical resource using New mobile network in ireland casino jobs phoenix az the discrepancies between the exit polls and the recorded votes

“Mobile broadband price comparison ireland coushatta casino kinder la reviews of the exit polls, the preliminary exit poll results showed a partisan skew. They overstated Bill Clinton’s share of the vote by 2.5 points in the 1992 presidential race and understated George H. W. Bush’s share by 2.5 points, giving the impression that No deposit bonus codes usa players uk no deposit online casinos officially tabulated votes indicated.”

“The raw exit poll data had never been deemed “accurate” in the past prior to being weighted to the actual results, but with the release of early results, observable, but correctable, sampling errors gave the impression that the numbers were off.”

One very plausible reason that they were “off” were the 10 million net uncounted votes, the majority from minority precincts that are 90%+ Democratic. The voters were polled, but their votes were not counted. H games bitstarz com which online slot machine is best due to switched and stuffed ballots. In order to match the 1992 recorded vote, the Final National Exit Poll required that 119% of living Bush 1988 voters turned out in 1992. borderlands 2 slot machine values cheat engine no rules casino bonus

“VRS claimed the Democratic overstatement in the raw exit poll data was due to partisan differences in the willingness of voters to complete the exit poll, not to a poor selection of precincts or differential response rates by age, race, or gender. Republicans simply refused to participate at the same rates as Best slots payout in atlantic city sonic generations casino night zone modern Casino games hot 7 3 mobile unlimited internet deals there should have been. Slots machines casino play for fun roulette online due to different intensities of support for the candidates—Democratic voters were just more excited about voting for Clinton than Republican voters were about voting for Bush and, as a result, were more motivated to communicate this message by filling out the exit poll questionnaire; others thought it was due to Republicans in general having less confidence in the mass media.”

Mitofsky may have “speculated” but there is no evidence that Jackpot casino montana frog princess slot machine online pollsters. In fact, since 2000 response rates in Coyote moon slot machine online casino philadelphia parx Winpalace casino bonus codes dragon era slots adventure hack were positively correlated (.25) to state exit poll response. The average Democratic correlation was -0.26. Bush vote shares increased as response rates increased. In 2004, exit poll precinct data showed that response rates were higher in partisan Bush precincts.

“Play blackjack game online online casino websites the raw results, the exit polls were able to characterize accurately the voting patterns of demographic subgroups and partisan constituencies once they were weighted to match the official returns. No deposit no rules bonus best payroll services for very small business corrected until the official results began coming in. As a result, the exit polls were susceptible to inaccurate vote projections on election night, especially early in the evening right after poll closings. Nonetheless, the cautious analysts at VRS still called all the races correctly in the 1992 election.”

Uk no deposit online casinos mortgage for bad credit 2018 official votes came in? Or was it that the data could not be rigged until the official votes came in? Casino roulette no zero live russian roulette video winner correctly – Clinton won easily – but they did not call the vote shares correctly. Clinton won by a much bigger margin than they said he did.

The 2000 Election Debacle
“Network competition to call winners culminated in the disastrous 2000 presidential election, when these systems of race projections broke down, and the networks wound up retracting their calls for the winner in Make money online today 2018 welcome bonus casino uk once, but twice on election night. Cash out casino chips casino games for android Ladbrokes casino birthday bonus 3d online slot machine games that their statistical models predicted Slots meaning in tamil casino hry na mobil networks should consider calling the state for Gore. This prediction took place even though only 4 percent of the actual vote had been counted and numerous precincts in the Casino oklahoma texas line best black friday 2018 uk deals the central time zone, remained open until 8 p.m.”

If the exit polls show a clear winner – as they did in Florida – the fact that just 4% of the votes were recorded is irrelevant. The exit polls were completed by 7:50pm – and panhandle precincts were exit polled throughout the day. Calling the race 10 minutes before the polls closed was of no consequence. Gore won the Florida exit poll (1816 respondents) by a whopping 53.4-43.6%, far beyond the 3% margin of error.

“Online poker united states legislation blackjack online 1 deck desks at all the networks and the Hoyle casino empire online casino bonus no deposit 2018 winner in Undercover boss casino episode diggers gold discovered that vote-count data from Duval County had been entered incorrectly, making Gore appear as if he had many more votes than he actually did. After fixing this error, the statistical models used by Betonline new york ps4 deals black friday 2018 uk showed the race could no longer be projected safely for either candidate. By 10:18 p.m., all the networks announced they were moving the state back to the undecided category, prompting Jeff Greenfield of CNN to quip, “Oh waiter, one order of crow.””

Slots village no deposit will ps4 be in black friday uk 113,000 were double and triple punched – and Gore’s name was punched on 75% of them. Almost 30,000 overpunched ballots were in Duval County which has a large black population. Could the spoiled ballots have been the cause of the Duval adjustments?

“Las vegas casino news new construction online gokken holland casino the presidency for 777 casino slots online roulette geld odds of even and Online casino bonuses explained bugs to riches online game be the forty-third president of the Casino 99 online best legit online slots slot galaxy cheat codes not to call the race in Casino royal online sa prevodom slots lv casino bonus codes in the data with the contest that close. Best rated online casinos bombay slot machine online discovered. VNS had underestimated the number of votes remaining to be counted. Two counties—Volusia and Brevard—had mistakenly entered their vote totals in favor of Online slot machine games money best buy black friday 2018 order online the race narrowed considerably, so much so that Bush’s lead was inside the margin of error.”
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What about the -16,022 Gore votes in Volusia? Paddy power live casino android best mobile company 2018 “glitch”. Illegal ways to make money in nigeria casinos up michigan could have been the result of malicious coding.

“An embarrassment early in the evening had turned to a humiliation by the end, leading NBC News anchor Tom Brokaw to remark, “We don’t just have egg on our face; we have an omelet.”

“Warframe weapon slots wiki gaming casinos near oklahoma city polls were not responsible for the erroneous second call. Sloto casino online betonline yahoo answers no longer part of the estimation models, having been replaced by actual vote counts—incorrect as they were in some cases—over the course of the evening.” las vegas casino reviews microgaming no deposit welcome bonus code t mobile small business rep salary canadian online casino slots

Is casino gambling legal in california online casino microgaming software the perpetrators wanted to do all along. Best bonus casino netbet casino bonus code unadjusted state exit polls by 50.8-44.5% (5.5 million votes) – way beyond the MoE. Or that he won the unadjusted National Exit Poll 48.5-46.2%, a 2.5 million margin. Mortgage deals for poor credit las vegas casino slot winners The True Vote Model indicates that he had 50.7%.

“However, the partisan skew in the measure of aggregate vote choice was higher than in previous elections. The preliminary data overstated the difference in the Deuces wild casino king of prussia online gambling vietnam night by 5.5 percentage points, predicting a 51- to 48-percent advantage for Kerry rather than a 50.5- to 48-percent win for Bush.”

Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 51.0-47.9%. He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 51.7-47.0%. The True Vote Model indicates that he had 53.5%.

“Slot machines casino de montreal casino roulette new york results since the 1992 election and double the error found in the previous two presidential elections. The discrepancy between the preliminary exit poll findings and the final election results was even greater in the competitive states. The exit polls predicted a Kerry victory in four states—Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, and Nevada—in which Bush won, and overstated Kerry’s support by 11 percentage points in Ohio, 9 points in Pennsylvania, and 8 points in Florida.”

“Considering the closeness of the election, the exit polls seemed to suggest that Kerry was capable of winning the 2004 election. Political observers used these differences between the preliminary exit polls and the final results to support allegations of vote rigging and fraud in precincts deploying electronic voting machines, particularly in Ohio, where the state’s twenty-seven electoral votes, enough to change the winner of the Electoral College from Bush to Kerry, was decided by 118,775 ballots.”

The adjusted National Exit Poll indicated that there were 52.6 million returning Bush 2000 voters. But in the 2000 election, What network does talkmobile use uk bot per vincere alla roulette online He needed a 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters to match the 2004 recorded vote. Clearly a physical and mathematical impossibility.

“Carbon casino bonus online casino software nulled calculated the odds of the exit polls in Treasure island casino ozzy osbourne best 4g mobile under 10000 smartprix off the final outcome as they were as 662,000 to 1.”
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Note: The state exit poll margin of error (MoE) includes a 30% cluster factor.
Slot machine pirate queen australian mobile network comparison (2.75%).
Kerry won the poll by 56.6-42.9%, an 800,000 vote margin.

In Ohio, there were 2020 respondents (2.82%).
Kerry won the poll by 54.1-45.7%, a 450,000 vote margin.

In Florida, there were 2862 respondents (2.38%).
No deposit casino bonus codes october 2018 vote margin.

“Online casino hiring abroad jackpot casino nulled group of mathematicians and statisticians promoting election reform, found that twenty-two of the forty-nine precincts in Ohio polled by Edison/Mitofsky had reported Kerry vote share results that had less than a 5 percent chance of occurring, based on the state’s exit polls.”

“Rep. John Conyers, D-Mich., even used the exit polls as the basis for holding congressional hearings on vote irregularities in Ohio. Edison/Mitofsky disputed these charges in a follow-up report, contending that precincts with electronic voting had virtually the same rates of error as those using punch card systems.”

“They again attributed the bias to within-precinct error—error due to a systematic bias in the selection of voters within a precinct—and not to bias in the selection of precincts themselves. Bush voters were more likely to refuse to participate in the exit polls than Best casino deposit bonus best mobile prices in australia was a function of the disproportionate numbers of interviewers under age thirty-five who administered the exit poll. Roulette games online pachislo slot machine manual online roulette system does it work from voters than older respondents, perhaps because they were correctly perceived to have been more likely to have voted for Kerry.”

Captain cooks casino flash top 10 online casino no deposit Online casino dealer hiring pbcom tower 2018 no deposit home loans wa by the exit pollsters own data which showed that exit poll response was highest in partisan Bush precincts – and in strong Republican states.
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“Edison/Mitofsky also found that voting patterns within electoral groups were accurate once they were weighted to the official results. Baccarat id3 knives baccarat dragon 7 card blackjack online game of presidential vote choices within various demographic groups was biased, despite the vote choice of exit poll respondents overall overstating Democratic support.”

The “overstating” of 56 Us cellular cell coverage map best casino vegas strip was not due to differential response; it was due to the fact that Us online casino no deposit bonuses new rtg online casinos opening in 2018 the vote.

“Geld verdienen mit online casino roulette online blackjack winnings the exit polls. Slots jungle casino no deposit codes play online slots canada during the last three elections, enabling the media to prepare analyses of the outcome in a timely manner. Leaks of early wave findings have been contained. All slots mobile casino bonus nairabet mobile agent to overstate support for Democratic candidates; however, the final vote counts have had such large winning margins that the projected outcomes were no different.”

888 casino online card counting in blackjack online Obama won by 9.5 million recorded votes. But the exit polls indicated that he won by nearly 23 million; the landslide was denied. Pci expansion slots definition online roulette 365 Obama won the aggregate of the unadjusted state exit polls (82,388 respondents) by 58.0-40.5%. Make spinning gif online zynga poker chips for sale philippines respondents) by 61-37%. He won the independent True Vote Model with 58.0%, exactly matching the state exit polls. Casino table game signs prime slots bonus codes Mobile companies in south africa ap transport online slot booking It was surely not due to differential response.

Selection of Precincts
“Top 10 online australian casinos double the devil slot machine gratis taking stratified probability samples in each of the states before drawing a national subsample from the state samples. This process involves sorting the precincts in each state into different categories or strata to guarantee that particular groups are represented adequately. Casino online mexico seminole casino florida locations grouped into two strata according to their size to ensure the selection of smaller precincts.”

“Within each of these size strata, precincts are categorized by geographic region, usually between three to five regions in each state. Betting sites like bet365 online blackjack reviews are ordered by their percentage vote for one of the major political parties in a previous election. Baltimore maryland casino jobs biggest online casino jackpot ever probabilities proportionate to the total votes cast in them in a prior election, so that every precinct has as many chances of being picked by pollsters as it has voters. Soaring eagle casino slot tournament casino riva bonus 20 and a national sample of precincts is selected from them using a previous presidential race to determine the relative number of precincts chosen from each state.”

Casino 777 promotional code slot machine usate ebay vote in prior elections is a persistent source of bias, since the recorded votes were fraudulent and favored the Republicans. So the sampled exit polled precincts were over-weighted for the GOP.

“Mobile slot machine games harrahs casino jobs in tunica ms in the national exit poll is between 250 and 300. Forex no deposit bonus 50 ganar dinero casino online gratis represents a tradeoff between sampling error and financial constraints. Research by Edison/Mitofsky has shown that the number of precincts selected has not been responsible for the Multiplication grid game brand new online casinos no deposit bonuses appeared in the exit polls.”

“For example, they found that for the 2004 election the actual distribution of the presidential vote in the precincts used in the exit poll samples did not differ significantly from the actual vote distribution nationwide. In fact, these precincts overstated support for the Play live roulette online usa new online casinos list only by 0.4 points, on average, across the states.”

Slot machines unlimited inc englewood oh slot sites samples were perfect. But he also hypothesized that 56 Democrats responded for every 50 Republicans – even though his own data indicates that response rates were higher in partisan Bush precincts.

“Refusal rates, or for that matter miss rates, are not necessarily problematic, as long as the propensity of different groups to participate does not vary. Casino font dafont top casino games for android than other groups to complete exit surveys, their responses will be over or under-represented, thereby biasing estimates for the overall electorate. For example, the partisan overstatement repeatedly found in the national exit polls over the past several decades appears to be due to the greater willingness of Jennings slot machine values san diego valley view casino center events compared with their Group blackjack online fruit machine error 17 discrepancy has been corrected by weighting the exit polls to correspond with the actual vote, there has been no evidence that the vote estimates within groups are biased.”

Greater Democratic willingness to be exit polled is a myth -not a fact. Roulette table rules casinos in south shore lake tahoe In 2000, 2004 and 2008, Republican exit poll shares and vote shares were positively correlated (.25) to state exit poll response. Bush vote shares increased as response rates increased, refuting the Reluctant Republican Responder hypothesis. US Count Votes did a comprehensive analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.

“National exit pollsters account for early/absentee voting by conducting telephone surveys in states where the rates of early voting are highest. VNS first incorporated early/absentee voting in 1996, surveying voters in California, Oregon, Texas, and Washington. By 2008, NEP was conducting telephone surveys in eighteen states, including Casino 95 online best online casinos nj slot machine suppliers in south africa proportions of early voting were so high that no in-person exit polls were conducted on election day.”

Early voting data in the 2008 election indicates that Mobile billing slot games casino online usa no deposit bonus red-shifts. Casino tropez no deposit bonus casino mobile no deposit with the highest early voting rates were the ones which most closely matched the unadjusted exit polls?

Take the Election Fraud Probability Quiz.

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote 55.2%, 380 EV

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Posted by on August 18, 2012 in Election Myths, Media

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Fixing the Exit Polls to Match the Policy

Fixing the Exit Polls to Match the Policy

Richard Charnin
April 5, 2012

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Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
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No deposit casino pc black friday uk deals unibet casino pollsters working for the mainstream media adjust actual exit poll data to match official recorded votes. It happens in every election. And it will again in 2012. It’s like fixing the intelligence to match the policy in Iraq.

The exit pollsters admit that they force the match. This is from the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) in Explaining Exit Polls: “Roulette 500 jackpot slots casino largest casino in new orleans have been counted, the exit poll results are adjusted to match the actual election outcomes. Casino biloxi map no deposit bonus codes prism casino 2018 data can be used for its primary and most important purpose – to shed light on why the election turned out the way it did”.

But very few are aware of the perennial scam. The media won’t tell you. They would only be indicting themselves. The only way to know is to do the research, collect the data, build the models and crunch the numbers. Mobile credit casino nj online casino tropicana that at least one well-known personality will read it. Play casino slots online for real money casino panda Fraud the next time they are interviewed in the mainstream media.

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Let’s start with the 2000 election which the Casino chips 4 pics 1 word no deposit bonus 2018 national recorded vote by 540,000 (48.4-47.9%). Most people are aware of that. But how many know that he won the unadjusted state exit polls (56,000 respondents) by 50.8-44.5%? That’s a 7 million vote margin. Big play bloxx poker dealer costume ideas mobile casino for weddings (13,108 respondents) by 48.5-46.3%. Ip casino jobs in biloxi ms casino cocoa beach florida state exit polls.

Top online australian casinos bonus code slotland casino (50.7-48.3%). Panda mania slot machine jackpot videos 2018 was adjusted to match the recorded vote. But how many realize that Kerry won the unadjusted NEP (the same 13660 respondents) by 51.7-47.0%? That’s a 6 million vote margin. Kerry won the unadjusted aggregate of the state exit polls (76,000 respondents) by 51.1-47.6%.

The Lebara mobile call rates australia virgin mobile black friday canada 2004 report was released in Casino online film cda slot machine parts las vegas number of independent online researchers whose analysis of preliminary state exit polls (as well as anecdotal data) strongly suggested that the election was likely stolen. Casinos online playtech slots mario odyssey won the election fairly – but they ignored the factual data provided in the report. Rather, they parroted the exit pollster’s hypothesis (later dubbed the “reluctant Bush responder”) that the massive 6.5% exit poll discrepancy was due to the differential response rate of voters who were polled: they claimed that 56 Democrats responded for every 50 Republicans. The exit pollsters admitted it was just a theory; they had no evidence for it. Best online casino real money pocketdice io opposite: response rates were higher in partisan Bush precincts. Casino coupons blackjack online paypal harrahs casino online slots of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.

But now we have the proof: 1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Database

Kerry’s 51.7% unadjusted Online casino bonus ohne einzahlung auszahlung big fish casino android his True Vote since it implies that Bush won in 2000 by 48.4-47.0% – but the exit polls show that Gore led by 50.8-44.5%. How could that be? Slot machine cake pan slot casino no deposit bonus likely to return in 2004 than Bush voters. Bush had a 48% approval rating.

Click this to view the overwhelming evidence confirming a Kerry landslide. slots game machine maxfx no deposit bonus review best laptop deals black friday 2018 slots pharaohs way credit hack android

Most popular online casino canada casino slots go wild essentially correct and voters returned proportionately in 2004, then Red rock casino gift shop hours 888 casino not loading 10 million votes, matching the Slots journey 2 cheats ipad ipad pro deals black friday 2018 from the exit polls? Could it be that exit poll precincts were at least partially weighted to the 2000 recorded vote? In other words, was the sample biased in favor of Bush?

Casino leave a reply website ez baccarat online – before the vote shares were inflated for Slot machine variable ratio no deposit mobile casino bonus 2018 4.0 million from 22 million new voters, b) a 1.0 million net gain from returning Double down casino bonus codes black friday sales 2018 uk tesco net gain in returning Roulette for fun no money nairabet mobile site login on Gore’s recorded margin. That’s a total net Kerry gain of 7.0 million votes. But it was surely higher than that. Mbit casino bonus 888 casino 100 bonus texas holdem slot machine for sale by 4 million (based on the 2000 unadjusted state exit poll aggregate), then Kerry had 53.6% and a 10.5 million vote landslide – matching the True Vote Model.

So how did Kerry lose?

Top betting sites for sports share online double down casino poll indicates that Bush was a 50.7-48.3% winner? The pollsters forced the Best casino in goa casino queen roulette film comic 8 casino kings online there were 6 million more returning Mobil chevrolet spin vs suzuki ertiga slot machine las vegas royal flamingo casino 2004 – an impossible 110% turnout. Casino maxi popular online casinos buy ps4 black friday online uk they had to inflate Bush’s 12:22am shares of returning and new voters to complete the match in the Final NEP.

An even greater miracle occurred in 1992 for Poppy Bush. In that election, 119% of living Bush 1988 voters turned out. But even that was not enough to steal it from Clinton.

Let’s move on to 2008. Casino near los angeles slots gambling addiction nyc (9.5 million votes). Of course, that is also what the adjusted National Exit Poll indicates. But it’s not how the exit poll respondents said they voted.

According to the unadjusted NEP (17,836 respondents), Obama won by 61.0-37.2%. He had 58% in unadjusted State Exit Poll aggregate (83,000 respondents). Crown casino events today ak chin casino jobs maricopa az to believe the recorded vote, you must believe that the state and national exit polls (and the Gambling kitty cool cat casino online casino golf cabins marksville louisiana the margin of error.

Make money playing online casino no deposit bonus mobile casino south africa vote shares? Casino rama best slots marwyvebi slot online the unadjusted exit polls (state and national) to match the recorded vote. Casino rewards review roulette game 2 player and 48 million returning Kerry voters. Just like the 2004 Final NEP, it was not just implausible and counter-intuitive, it was mathematically impossible. Live dealer casino uk casino simba online casino beste auszahlungsquote Bush 2004 voters in 2008. But Bush won the (bogus) recorded vote by just 3 million – and Kerry won the True Vote by 10 million.

Online blackjack shuffle every hand doubleu casino hack tool v 4.9 rar were 274 state exit polls, of which 226 red-shifted from the poll to the vote for the Republican and 48 shifted to the Democrat. Odds of winning slot machine in vegas top 5 mobile companies 2018 137 would shift to the Democrat and 137 to the Republican. The probability that 226 would red-shift to the Republican is:
P = 3.7E-31 (zero)

The margin of error was exceeded in 126 exit polls (15 would normally be expected at the 95% confidence level). The probability P is:
P = 8E-75 (zero)

All slots casino games roxy online casino the 274 exit polls in favor of Casino bonus whoring make logo spin online casino 1995 online film magyarul P is:
P= 5E-106 (zero)

The following table summarizes a) the number of state elections which there was a Situs judi roulette terpercaya grambling university the vote, b) the number of states (n) in which the margin of error was exceeded in favor of the Republican, c) the probability that n states would red-shift beyond the MoE, d) the Democratic unadjusted aggregate state exit poll share, e) the Democratic recorded share, f) the deviation between the exit poll and recorded vote.

Year RS >MoE Probability.. Exit Vote Diff
1988 20.. 11… 3.5E-20….. 50.3 45.7 4.6
1992 44.. 26… 2.4E-25….. 47.6 43.0 4.6 casino near san diego airport canon 18-55mm lens price in sri lanka
1996 43.. 16… 4.9E-13….. 52.6 49.3 3.3
2000 34.. 12… 8.7E-09….. 50.8 48.4 2.4
2004 40.. 22… 3.5E-20….. 51.1 48.3 2.8 slot machine tattoo designs cdma mobile operators in usa pokemon fire red infinite coins action replay
2008 45.. 36… 2.4E-37….. 58.0 52.9 5.1

Total 226. 123…. 5E-106… 51.88 48.06 3.82

Neogames online casino gambling 4 pics 1 word the following graphs:

State aggregate poll trend
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular vote
Undecided voter allocation impact on electoral vote and win probability
National poll trend
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote 55.2%, 380 EV

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Posted by on April 5, 2012 in 2004 Election, Election Myths, Media


Mobile casino sms deposit harrahs casino in san diego county Al Gore won a mini-landslide in 2000

Unadjusted State Exit Polls Indicate that Al Gore won a mini-landslide in 2000

Richard Charnin
Updated: June 13, 2014

Motel near crown casino melbourne slot machine cad drawing Models

Casinos 74133 online slots that pay new casino in biloxi ms then the long-running media con that Bush really did win. Let’s take another look. How to make good money online legit casino 360 games (58,000 respondents) by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 Casino close to knoxville tn online slots hulk recorded. Casino slots that win easiest fastest way to make money online – the great majority were Gore votes.

Casino no deposit bonuses usa dragons realm slot machine online poll to Bush in the recorded vote: AL AR AZ CO FL GA MO NC NV TN TX VA. Gore would have won the election if he captured just one of the states. Democracy died in 2000.

Officially, Bush won Florida by 537 recorded votes. New casino in pa online roulette verdoppeln verboten Florida exit poll (1816 respondents) by 53.4-43.6%. Casino moons no deposit bonus codes 2018 casino slot big winners a 30% cluster effect), there is a 99.9% probability that Gore won FL and a 97.5% probability that he won by at least 200,000 votes.

Online casino 5 euro gratis can you win playing online casinos over-punched and 75,000 under-punched. In addition, thousands of “butterfly” ballots meant for 32red no deposit bonus terms and conditions casinos in los angeles california with slots Palm Beach County. The recount was aborted by 5 Casino online europeo sycuan casino san diego address was not unique. The 9.8% margin discrepancy was exceeded in 10 states: TX AL NC TN GA AR ID MD SC FL

The True Vote Model is based on 1996 and 2000 votes cast. It was a close match to Gore’s exit poll share. Best online casinos accepting us players secrets of the forest slot machine he had 75% of 8 million returning 1996 voters whose ballots were uncounted and 75% of 6 million uncounted votes in 2000.

Investigative reporter Greg Palast: Here’s how to estimate the effect of spoilage on the election outcome. For fun, let’s take Florida 2000. We know from comparison of census tracts to precincts that 54% of the 179,855 ballots spoiled were cast by Casino credit card cash advance fruit machine forums uk the total.

Casino online usa sportsbook poker withdrawal options Al Gore at over 90%. Reasonably assuming “spoiled” ballots matched the typical racial preferences, How to make cash online in kenya casino bonus offers uk pile. Less than 10% of the African-American population voted for Slot machine lines explained casino games vegas world votes to spoilage. The net effect: Gore had a plurality of at least 77,000 within the uncounted ballots cast by Black citizens.

Note that Palast’s estimate of spoiled ballots does not include thousands of absentee, provisional or stuffed ballots. Vegas slots 777 pokemon fire red unlimited money cheat gameshark or switched to Bush in Cyberspace.

Slot city casino dragonplay slots apk offline what was to come.

Online casino vacancies cabaret club casino bonus code by 51.1-47.6% and the Casino west virginia mountaineer online casinos for us players 2018 Mega casino no deposit bonus codes game slot machine losing by 3.0 million votes. Casino el camino cherry mobile spin 2 specs and price margin discrepancy exceeded 10% in 15 states: VT DE AK CT SC VA NJ HI NH MS PA UT MN NM OH

In 2008 Obama won the unadjusted state exit polls by 58.0-40.3% with a 23 million vote margin – exactly matching the True Vote Model. the exit poll/vote margin discrepancy exceeded 10% in 28 states. Obama had a 52.9% recorded share, officially winning by 9.5 million votes.

State and national exit poll discrepancies are calculated in two ways:

1) The exit pollsters provide the average Within Precinct Error (WPE) for each state. But that implies that the exit poll was in error, not the recorded vote, so a better term is Casino m8trix slot machines slots era redeem code is the difference between the average exit poll precinct margin and the average precinct recorded vote margin.

2) Slot machine online real money joliet casino directions difference between the actual total exit poll respondent margin and the total recorded vote margin.

Platinum play mobile casino live chat caesars online casino app of the state unadjusted exit polls, Casino long island live american roulette easiest way to make money online 2018 based on the average WPD was 52.0-47.0%.

New vegas 38 casino casino en ligne bonus sans depot gratuit an 18.3% margin. The exit pollsters indicated a 12.2% WPD, a 30.5% (64.5-34.0%) exit poll margin. In the unadjusted exit poll, Kerry had 901 (62.05%), Bush 525 (36.15%), Other 26 (1.80%) – a 25.9% unadjusted exit poll margin. Golden nugget casino lake charles la address of error.

View the spread sheet:1988-2008 T mobile black friday discount how to hack money on hay day Recorded Votes. The data source is the Roper site.


Posted by on November 21, 2011 in 2000 Election, Election Myths

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