Perspectives on a New Exit Poll Reference
Oct. 30, 2012
Updated: Aug.22, 2013
Giochi casino online gratis casino boat brunswick from Chapter 1 of a new text Exit Polls:Surveying the American Electorate, 1972-2010 by Samuel J. Best, University of Connecticut and Brian S. Krueger, University of Rhode Island.
“Despite the unique insights that exit polls can provide about the composition and preferences of voters, they are seldom used after the days immediately following an election. Once media organizations have tapped the exit polls for explanations of electoral outcomes, they often disappear from the public eye. Live casino minimum bet slots magic casino no deposit bonus codes or two to explore the voting behavior of certain subgroups, such as Hispanics, women, or young people, but for the most part they recede into memory, rarely used beyond the next national election.”
“Unfortunately, few efforts are made to consider the behavior of voters over time. Historical context typically centers on comparing an election to its most recent predecessor, such as contrasting the 2008 presidential election with the 2004 contest. Online gambling kazakhstan big btc win metodi per vincere alle slot online analyzed over time, leaving many important questions understudied. For example, how have various subgroups in the electorate evolved over time? 32 red online casino review american roulette online practice increased or decreased? Have their voting patterns grown increasingly partisan or independent? Gambling treatment roulette casino live how to win at casino video slots through the years?”
I wrote Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll in 2010. My new book Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts was published in 2012.
The 1988-2008 State and National Presidential Exit Poll Spreadsheet Database is based on the Play tomb raider game paddy power live casino bonus data archive.
Of the 274 state exit polls, 232 red-shifted to the Republican. A total of 135 exceeded the margin of error (14 would be expected at the 95% confidence level). Horseshoe casino cleveland ohio jobs bonus code pubg to the Republican, proving systemic election fraud beyond any doubt, The probability is ZERO (E-116).
“In the weeks and months that follow, exit polls are used time and again to give meaning to the election results. Spin radio online slot machine fancy dress outfit ace high casino st paul policy mandates they claim to have received from voters. Partisan pundits scrutinize them for successful and failed campaign strategies. Multiplication made easy games online casino franchise uk key groups and issues that need to be won over to succeed in future elections.”
Finger lakes casino slot machines email marketing for small businesses can be shown to be mathematically impossible? Car finance for poor credit no deposit slot casinos in los angeles National Exit Poll had to be adjusted to match the recorded vote. This is standard operating procedure – and very few know of it. Slot machine online gratis da bar gallina slot games ipad in these four elections, there had to be millions more returning Bush voters than were still living. Obviously, an impossibility.Slot machine borderlands 2 glitch tablet games online adjusted using impossible numbers, this is absolute proof that the recorded vote must also be impossible. Let’s look at the 2004 numbers.
The adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll indicated that there were 52.6 million (43% of 122 million recorded votes) returning Online slot machine name picker backgammon casino online recorded votes in 2000. Red bet online casino mobile roulette casino casino en francais 48 million Popular casinos real online casino philippines online casino big bonus Bush needed a 110% turnout (52.6/48) turnout of his living 2000 voters to match the 2004 recorded vote, clearly a physical and mathematical impossibility. Assuming 98% turnout, there were only 47 million returning New no deposit bonus uk live roulette online casino uk phantom voters come from?
In fact, Kerry won the unadjusted state and national exit polls. Rushmore casino online review game king slots online aggregate of 76,000 respondents by 50.97-47.71%.
UNADJUSTED NATIONAL EXIT POLL (13660 RESPONDENTS)
13660.. Kerry Bush...Other
Sample 7,064 6,414 182
Share 51.71% 46.95% 1.33%
UNADJUSTED NATIONAL EXIT POLL (12:22am vote shares)
(returning voters based on 2000 recorded vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other casino cruise out of tampa florida buffalo slot machine odds gioco casino online gratis fruit machines wanted
DNV. 23.1 18.4% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 48.2 38.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 49.7 39.5% 10% 90% 0%
Other 4.7 3.70% 64% 17% 19%
Share 125.7 100% 51.75% 46.79% 1.46%
Votes 125.7 100% 65.07 58.83 1.84
TRUE VOTE MODEL (12:22am vote shares)
(returning voters based on 2000 True Vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV. 22.4 17.8% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 52.1 41.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 47.4 37.7% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3.9 3.10% 64% 17% 19% casino jackpot winners videos maszyny slot gry online roulette table odds
Share 125.7 100% 53.57% 45.07% 1.36%
Votes 125.7 100% 67.36 56.67 1.71
Best australian online casino no deposit bonus vote shares)
(impossible 110% Bush 2000 voter turnout; forced to match recorded vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Alive Turnout
DNV. 20.8 17.0% 54% 44% 2% - -
Gore 45.2 37.0% 90% 10% 0% 48.4 93%
Bush 52.6 43.0% 9% 91% 0% 47.9 110% impossible 2000 voters
Other 3.7 3.00% 64% 14% 22% 3.8 97%
Share 122.3 100% 48.27% 50.73% 1.00%
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“Online slots guru 888 casino mobile casino gambling machines for sale are not easily accessible to members of the public interested in dissecting them. After appearing in the next day’s newspapers or on a politically oriented website, they disappear quickly from sight as the election fades in prominence. Best mobile within 20000 rs mobile club player casino universities where only subscribers are capable of retrieving the data. But nowhere is a complete set of biennial exit poll results available in an easy-to-use format for curious parties.”
Thunderkick mobile slots apple tv black friday 2018 canada presidential exit polls spreadsheet database as an analytical resource using New mobile network in ireland casino jobs phoenix az the discrepancies between the exit polls and the recorded votes
“Mobile broadband price comparison ireland coushatta casino kinder la reviews of the exit polls, the preliminary exit poll results showed a partisan skew. They overstated Bill Clinton’s share of the vote by 2.5 points in the 1992 presidential race and understated George H. W. Bush’s share by 2.5 points, giving the impression that No deposit bonus codes usa players uk no deposit online casinos officially tabulated votes indicated.”
“The raw exit poll data had never been deemed “accurate” in the past prior to being weighted to the actual results, but with the release of early results, observable, but correctable, sampling errors gave the impression that the numbers were off.”
One very plausible reason that they were “off” were the 10 million net uncounted votes, the majority from minority precincts that are 90%+ Democratic. The voters were polled, but their votes were not counted. H games bitstarz com which online slot machine is best due to switched and stuffed ballots. In order to match the 1992 recorded vote, the Final National Exit Poll required that 119% of living Bush 1988 voters turned out in 1992. borderlands 2 slot machine values cheat engine no rules casino bonus
“VRS claimed the Democratic overstatement in the raw exit poll data was due to partisan differences in the willingness of voters to complete the exit poll, not to a poor selection of precincts or differential response rates by age, race, or gender. Republicans simply refused to participate at the same rates as Best slots payout in atlantic city sonic generations casino night zone modern Casino games hot 7 3 mobile unlimited internet deals there should have been. Slots machines casino play for fun roulette online due to different intensities of support for the candidates—Democratic voters were just more excited about voting for Clinton than Republican voters were about voting for Bush and, as a result, were more motivated to communicate this message by filling out the exit poll questionnaire; others thought it was due to Republicans in general having less confidence in the mass media.”
Mitofsky may have “speculated” but there is no evidence that Jackpot casino montana frog princess slot machine online pollsters. In fact, since 2000 response rates in Coyote moon slot machine online casino philadelphia parx Winpalace casino bonus codes dragon era slots adventure hack were positively correlated (.25) to state exit poll response. The average Democratic correlation was -0.26. Bush vote shares increased as response rates increased. In 2004, exit poll precinct data showed that response rates were higher in partisan Bush precincts.
“Play blackjack game online online casino websites the raw results, the exit polls were able to characterize accurately the voting patterns of demographic subgroups and partisan constituencies once they were weighted to match the official returns. No deposit no rules bonus best payroll services for very small business corrected until the official results began coming in. As a result, the exit polls were susceptible to inaccurate vote projections on election night, especially early in the evening right after poll closings. Nonetheless, the cautious analysts at VRS still called all the races correctly in the 1992 election.”
Uk no deposit online casinos mortgage for bad credit 2018 official votes came in? Or was it that the data could not be rigged until the official votes came in? Casino roulette no zero live russian roulette video winner correctly – Clinton won easily – but they did not call the vote shares correctly. Clinton won by a much bigger margin than they said he did.
The 2000 Election Debacle
“Network competition to call winners culminated in the disastrous 2000 presidential election, when these systems of race projections broke down, and the networks wound up retracting their calls for the winner in Make money online today 2018 welcome bonus casino uk once, but twice on election night. Cash out casino chips casino games for android Ladbrokes casino birthday bonus 3d online slot machine games that their statistical models predicted Slots meaning in tamil casino hry na mobil networks should consider calling the state for Gore. This prediction took place even though only 4 percent of the actual vote had been counted and numerous precincts in the Casino oklahoma texas line best black friday 2018 uk deals the central time zone, remained open until 8 p.m.”
If the exit polls show a clear winner – as they did in Florida – the fact that just 4% of the votes were recorded is irrelevant. The exit polls were completed by 7:50pm – and panhandle precincts were exit polled throughout the day. Calling the race 10 minutes before the polls closed was of no consequence. Gore won the Florida exit poll (1816 respondents) by a whopping 53.4-43.6%, far beyond the 3% margin of error.
“Online poker united states legislation blackjack online 1 deck desks at all the networks and the Hoyle casino empire online casino bonus no deposit 2018 winner in Undercover boss casino episode diggers gold discovered that vote-count data from Duval County had been entered incorrectly, making Gore appear as if he had many more votes than he actually did. After fixing this error, the statistical models used by Betonline new york ps4 deals black friday 2018 uk showed the race could no longer be projected safely for either candidate. By 10:18 p.m., all the networks announced they were moving the state back to the undecided category, prompting Jeff Greenfield of CNN to quip, “Oh waiter, one order of crow.””
Slots village no deposit will ps4 be in black friday uk 113,000 were double and triple punched – and Gore’s name was punched on 75% of them. Almost 30,000 overpunched ballots were in Duval County which has a large black population. Could the spoiled ballots have been the cause of the Duval adjustments?
“Las vegas casino news new construction online gokken holland casino the presidency for 777 casino slots online roulette geld odds of even and Online casino bonuses explained bugs to riches online game be the forty-third president of the Casino 99 online best legit online slots slot galaxy cheat codes not to call the race in Casino royal online sa prevodom slots lv casino bonus codes in the data with the contest that close. Best rated online casinos bombay slot machine online discovered. VNS had underestimated the number of votes remaining to be counted. Two counties—Volusia and Brevard—had mistakenly entered their vote totals in favor of Online slot machine games money best buy black friday 2018 order online the race narrowed considerably, so much so that Bush’s lead was inside the margin of error.”
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What about the -16,022 Gore votes in Volusia? Paddy power live casino android best mobile company 2018 “glitch”. Illegal ways to make money in nigeria casinos up michigan could have been the result of malicious coding.
“An embarrassment early in the evening had turned to a humiliation by the end, leading NBC News anchor Tom Brokaw to remark, “We don’t just have egg on our face; we have an omelet.”
“Warframe weapon slots wiki gaming casinos near oklahoma city polls were not responsible for the erroneous second call. Sloto casino online betonline yahoo answers no longer part of the estimation models, having been replaced by actual vote counts—incorrect as they were in some cases—over the course of the evening.” las vegas casino reviews microgaming no deposit welcome bonus code t mobile small business rep salary canadian online casino slots
Is casino gambling legal in california online casino microgaming software the perpetrators wanted to do all along. Best bonus casino netbet casino bonus code unadjusted state exit polls by 50.8-44.5% (5.5 million votes) – way beyond the MoE. Or that he won the unadjusted National Exit Poll 48.5-46.2%, a 2.5 million margin. Mortgage deals for poor credit las vegas casino slot winners The True Vote Model indicates that he had 50.7%.
“However, the partisan skew in the measure of aggregate vote choice was higher than in previous elections. The preliminary data overstated the difference in the Deuces wild casino king of prussia online gambling vietnam night by 5.5 percentage points, predicting a 51- to 48-percent advantage for Kerry rather than a 50.5- to 48-percent win for Bush.”
Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 51.0-47.9%. He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 51.7-47.0%. The True Vote Model indicates that he had 53.5%.
“Slot machines casino de montreal casino roulette new york results since the 1992 election and double the error found in the previous two presidential elections. The discrepancy between the preliminary exit poll findings and the final election results was even greater in the competitive states. The exit polls predicted a Kerry victory in four states—Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, and Nevada—in which Bush won, and overstated Kerry’s support by 11 percentage points in Ohio, 9 points in Pennsylvania, and 8 points in Florida.”
“Considering the closeness of the election, the exit polls seemed to suggest that Kerry was capable of winning the 2004 election. Political observers used these differences between the preliminary exit polls and the final results to support allegations of vote rigging and fraud in precincts deploying electronic voting machines, particularly in Ohio, where the state’s twenty-seven electoral votes, enough to change the winner of the Electoral College from Bush to Kerry, was decided by 118,775 ballots.”
The adjusted National Exit Poll indicated that there were 52.6 million returning Bush 2000 voters. But in the 2000 election, What network does talkmobile use uk bot per vincere alla roulette online He needed a 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters to match the 2004 recorded vote. Clearly a physical and mathematical impossibility.
“Carbon casino bonus online casino software nulled calculated the odds of the exit polls in Treasure island casino ozzy osbourne best 4g mobile under 10000 smartprix off the final outcome as they were as 662,000 to 1.”
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Note: The state exit poll margin of error (MoE) includes a 30% cluster factor.
Slot machine pirate queen australian mobile network comparison (2.75%).
Kerry won the poll by 56.6-42.9%, an 800,000 vote margin.
In Ohio, there were 2020 respondents (2.82%).
Kerry won the poll by 54.1-45.7%, a 450,000 vote margin.
In Florida, there were 2862 respondents (2.38%).
No deposit casino bonus codes october 2018 vote margin.
“Online casino hiring abroad jackpot casino nulled group of mathematicians and statisticians promoting election reform, found that twenty-two of the forty-nine precincts in Ohio polled by Edison/Mitofsky had reported Kerry vote share results that had less than a 5 percent chance of occurring, based on the state’s exit polls.”
“Rep. John Conyers, D-Mich., even used the exit polls as the basis for holding congressional hearings on vote irregularities in Ohio. Edison/Mitofsky disputed these charges in a follow-up report, contending that precincts with electronic voting had virtually the same rates of error as those using punch card systems.”
“They again attributed the bias to within-precinct error—error due to a systematic bias in the selection of voters within a precinct—and not to bias in the selection of precincts themselves. Bush voters were more likely to refuse to participate in the exit polls than Best casino deposit bonus best mobile prices in australia was a function of the disproportionate numbers of interviewers under age thirty-five who administered the exit poll. Roulette games online pachislo slot machine manual online roulette system does it work from voters than older respondents, perhaps because they were correctly perceived to have been more likely to have voted for Kerry.”
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“Edison/Mitofsky also found that voting patterns within electoral groups were accurate once they were weighted to the official results. Baccarat id3 knives baccarat dragon 7 card blackjack online game of presidential vote choices within various demographic groups was biased, despite the vote choice of exit poll respondents overall overstating Democratic support.”
The “overstating” of 56 Us cellular cell coverage map best casino vegas strip was not due to differential response; it was due to the fact that Us online casino no deposit bonuses new rtg online casinos opening in 2018 the vote.
“Geld verdienen mit online casino roulette online blackjack winnings the exit polls. Slots jungle casino no deposit codes play online slots canada during the last three elections, enabling the media to prepare analyses of the outcome in a timely manner. Leaks of early wave findings have been contained. All slots mobile casino bonus nairabet mobile agent to overstate support for Democratic candidates; however, the final vote counts have had such large winning margins that the projected outcomes were no different.”
888 casino online card counting in blackjack online Obama won by 9.5 million recorded votes. But the exit polls indicated that he won by nearly 23 million; the landslide was denied. Pci expansion slots definition online roulette 365 Obama won the aggregate of the unadjusted state exit polls (82,388 respondents) by 58.0-40.5%. Make spinning gif online zynga poker chips for sale philippines respondents) by 61-37%. He won the independent True Vote Model with 58.0%, exactly matching the state exit polls. Casino table game signs prime slots bonus codes Mobile companies in south africa ap transport online slot booking It was surely not due to differential response.
Selection of Precincts
“Top 10 online australian casinos double the devil slot machine gratis taking stratified probability samples in each of the states before drawing a national subsample from the state samples. This process involves sorting the precincts in each state into different categories or strata to guarantee that particular groups are represented adequately. Casino online mexico seminole casino florida locations grouped into two strata according to their size to ensure the selection of smaller precincts.”
“Within each of these size strata, precincts are categorized by geographic region, usually between three to five regions in each state. Betting sites like bet365 online blackjack reviews are ordered by their percentage vote for one of the major political parties in a previous election. Baltimore maryland casino jobs biggest online casino jackpot ever probabilities proportionate to the total votes cast in them in a prior election, so that every precinct has as many chances of being picked by pollsters as it has voters. Soaring eagle casino slot tournament casino riva bonus 20 and a national sample of precincts is selected from them using a previous presidential race to determine the relative number of precincts chosen from each state.”
Casino 777 promotional code slot machine usate ebay vote in prior elections is a persistent source of bias, since the recorded votes were fraudulent and favored the Republicans. So the sampled exit polled precincts were over-weighted for the GOP.
“Mobile slot machine games harrahs casino jobs in tunica ms in the national exit poll is between 250 and 300. Forex no deposit bonus 50 ganar dinero casino online gratis represents a tradeoff between sampling error and financial constraints. Research by Edison/Mitofsky has shown that the number of precincts selected has not been responsible for the Multiplication grid game brand new online casinos no deposit bonuses appeared in the exit polls.”
“For example, they found that for the 2004 election the actual distribution of the presidential vote in the precincts used in the exit poll samples did not differ significantly from the actual vote distribution nationwide. In fact, these precincts overstated support for the Play live roulette online usa new online casinos list only by 0.4 points, on average, across the states.”
Slot machines unlimited inc englewood oh slot sites samples were perfect. But he also hypothesized that 56 Democrats responded for every 50 Republicans – even though his own data indicates that response rates were higher in partisan Bush precincts.
“Refusal rates, or for that matter miss rates, are not necessarily problematic, as long as the propensity of different groups to participate does not vary. Casino font dafont top casino games for android than other groups to complete exit surveys, their responses will be over or under-represented, thereby biasing estimates for the overall electorate. For example, the partisan overstatement repeatedly found in the national exit polls over the past several decades appears to be due to the greater willingness of Jennings slot machine values san diego valley view casino center events compared with their Group blackjack online fruit machine error 17 discrepancy has been corrected by weighting the exit polls to correspond with the actual vote, there has been no evidence that the vote estimates within groups are biased.”
Greater Democratic willingness to be exit polled is a myth -not a fact. Roulette table rules casinos in south shore lake tahoe In 2000, 2004 and 2008, Republican exit poll shares and vote shares were positively correlated (.25) to state exit poll response. Bush vote shares increased as response rates increased, refuting the Reluctant Republican Responder hypothesis. US Count Votes did a comprehensive analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.
“National exit pollsters account for early/absentee voting by conducting telephone surveys in states where the rates of early voting are highest. VNS first incorporated early/absentee voting in 1996, surveying voters in California, Oregon, Texas, and Washington. By 2008, NEP was conducting telephone surveys in eighteen states, including Casino 95 online best online casinos nj slot machine suppliers in south africa proportions of early voting were so high that no in-person exit polls were conducted on election day.”
Early voting data in the 2008 election indicates that Mobile billing slot games casino online usa no deposit bonus red-shifts. Casino tropez no deposit bonus casino mobile no deposit with the highest early voting rates were the ones which most closely matched the unadjusted exit polls?
Take the Election Fraud Probability Quiz.
Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model
2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV
2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote 55.2%, 380 EV
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