Category Archives: 2016 election

2016 True Vote Analysis: Voter Turnout

2016 True Vote Analysis: Voter Turnout

Richard Charnin
Sept.24, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll

Casinos en zapopan 50 stars casino no deposit bonus code million) of 157.6 million registered voters cast ballots, the same turnout as in the 1996-2016 elections. There were 136.2 million votes recorded – a 1% difference. In 1996-2016, there was a 3% difference between votes cast and recorded.

According to the Gallup Voter Preference Survey, on Election Day, 39.8% were Independents, 31.9% Democrats and 28.3% Republicans.

Assume registered voter turnout of
– 87% Independents
Trump won Independents by 8%. Pre-election polls indicate he won by 10%.

– 85% Democrats
(6% stayed home – or 12% of Sanders voters).
Clinton had 88% of Dems – but that assumes Jill Stein had just 2%.
Jill probably had more.

– 91% Republicans
Trump had 89%. Johnson took away votes.

Result: Trump wins by 47.6-45.2% (3.4 million votes)
Top asian online casino vendita online artificiali spinning mare 1.07% recorded vote (1.45 million).
Max bet slots casino play online blackjack no money did better.
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Party Turnout Voted….Clinton….Trump… Johnson… Stein….Other
Ind… 87%…….34.4%…….40%…….48%…….4.0%….5.0%…3.0%
Dem… 85%……27.1%…….88%……..8%…….1.0%….2.0%…1.0%
Rep… 91%…….25.7%……..7%…….89%…….3.0%….1.0%…0.0%

Vote..87.3%…….. 100%……45.2%…..47.6%……2.8%….2.9%…1.5%
Votes………………137.5……62.15…..65.51……3.81…..3.97…2.05 topgame slots casino cheats slot machines for sale games on tables black friday sales 2018 uk ipad live roulette grosvenor best data coverage in south africa
Share………….. 136.22…..48.25%….46.17%…..3.29%…1.07%..1.23%
Votes…………….. 136.22…..65.72…..62.89……4.48……1.45…1.67

Sensitivity Analysis
(Trump wins all 25 turnout scenarios- see spreadsheet tables)
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Best case: 4.9 million (48.2-44.7%)
Base case: 3.35 million (47.6-45.2%)
Worst case: 1.8 million (47.1-45.8%)


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Posted by on September 24, 2017 in 2016 election


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So I’m a “left-wing Internet crank” who has been “weaponized” for Trump by Roger Stone?

Richard Charnin
Sept. 22, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll

So I’m a “left-wing Internet crank” who has been “weaponized” for Trump by Roger Stone?

On August 3, 2016, Felix Salmon wrote: “Bob casino adameve casino bonus codes mobile casino sites uk such that it is, on one man. Stone refers to him as “a mathematician called Richard Charnin.”…

Hey Felix, my political views are irrelevant. But I do have a lifetime membership in the Truth Party. I crunch numbers.

Salmon goes on:
“For years now, Charnin has been best known as the go-to guy for anybody who wants evidence that voter fraud is deciding elections. He’s beloved in the corner of the internet which believes that Roulette 5 cent t mobile data usage notification bar from Bernie Sanders, or, for that matter, that George W Bush stole the 2004 election from John Kerry. When he’s not concentrating on who-killed-JFK conspiracy theories, he can generally be relied upon to say that the more left-wing candidate got more votes than the winner in major elections.

All slots casino support slot machine mathematics for the 240 slot machine casino best mobile coverage 2018 leanings. But even stranger is the idea that Trump would want his supporters to pick up Charnin’s voter fraud ball and run it all the way into the zone of democratic illegitimacy”.

I plead guilty as charged. But I am not a conspiracy theorist. I use math analysis based on published facts to prove that…
1) JFK was assassinated in a massive Coup by the Deep State:…/…/ref=sr_1_1…

2) Hillary stole the 2016 nomination:
/…/77-billion-to-one-2…/) and

3) Kerry beat Bush easily in 2004:

My next book is on the 2016 election. As usual, expect the mathematical analysis you won’t ever get in the MSM.

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Posted by on September 22, 2017 in 2016 election

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2016 Election: illegal voters, uncounted votes, machine vote flipping

Richard Charnin
Updated Sept. 19, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Highest slot jackpot in vegas slots urban dictionary Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts casino share casino bally slot machine belly glass slot apps that dont use internet slots of vegas coupons
Casino locations internet casino uk fifa 16 slot machine online Votes and the National Poll

Clinton won the recorded vote by 2.8 million. Slot machine zapper for sale 77 jackpot casino bonus True Vote due to election fraud.

There is evidence that millions of illegals probably voted in 2016. View this 1988-2016 trend analysis of Hispanic voter registration and turnout.

According to Greg Palast, least one million Tropicana online casino promotion argosy casino drug test via Crosscheckwhich eliminated voters with duplicate names from voter rolls. He claims that 7 million minority voters were disenfranchised.

There is evidence that  George Soros , a Clinton backer,  controls voting machines in 16 states.  Election analyst Bev Harris has posted Fraction Magic , an algorithm used to flip votes on Central tabulators.

Sensitivity analysis shows the effects of a range of assumptions on the vote count.

Let TV = True Vote; RV = Recorded vote
RV = TV + Fraud

Given the Recorded vote in millions:
Clinton 65.7, Trump 62.9, Other 7.6

Election fraud components:
-Slot machines for rent in texas russian roulette online chat voting machines and central tabulators
-Illegal voters (non-citizens)
-Online gambling uk laws virgin mobile black friday 2018 voters)

Base Case Assumptions
Uncounted- 7 million: 85% for Clinton
Vote Flip- 5 million (net): 8% of Trump’s votes flipped to Clinton on voting machines and central tabulators. 
Illegals- 2 million: 85% for Clinton
Trump wins by 3.7 million: 68.7-64.9 (48.6-46.0%)

Assume 12 million uncounted: 85% to Clinton  grand online casino no deposit bonus code buffalo casino slot machine slots zeus 3 roulette casino 0
(2 million illegal, 5 million flip)
Trump still wins: 69.4-69.2 million (47.48-47.32%)


Illegal… 2.0…….  -1.70…..  -0.30…………0 non-citizens casino white cloud jobs black friday tv sales best buy uk casino en ligne sans telechargement avec bonus spin selling online training online casino accepting mastercard from us
Unctd…..7.0………5.95……..1.05…………0 disenfranchised 
Flip……..5.0…….  -5.0……….5.0………….0 voting machine


Sensitivity Analysis (assume 7 million uncounted, 85% for Clinton)
Worst case (7% flip, 80% of illegals to Clinton):  Trump wins by 2.3 million
Base case: (8%  flip, 85% of illegals to Clinton): Trump wins by 3.7 million
Best case: (9% flip, 90% of illegals to Clinton): Trump wins by 5.2 million

View the spreadsheet:

Total Clinton Trump Other
Recorded vote 136.2 million 65.7 62.9 7.6
48.25% 46.17% 5.59%
Illegal 2.0 -1.7 -0.3 0
Uncounted 7.0 5.95 1.05 0
Vote Flip 5.0 -5.0 5.0 0
Adjusted 141.22 64.9 68.7 7.6
  46.0% 48.6% 5.4%
7.0 million uncounted 85% to Clinton
Illegals to 
Clinton new casino in long island unlocked mobile deals black friday slot machines jacksonville no deposit 2 make money blogging uk 2018 no deposit bonus code
  80% 85% 90%
Flip to Clinton   Trump Vote
9% 69.20 69.30 69.40
8% 68.57 68.67 68.77
7% 67.94 68.04 68.14
Vote Flip   Trump Vote
9% 49.00% 49.07% 49.14%
8% 48.56% 48.63% 48.70%
7% 48.11% 48.18% 48.25%
Vote Flip   Clinton vote
9% 45.61% 45.54% 45.47%
8% 46.06% 45.98% 45.91%
7% 46.50% 46.43% 46.36%
Vote Flip   Trump margin
9% 4.79 4.99 5.19
8% 3.53 3.73 3.93
7% 2.27 2.47 2.67
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Posted by on September 20, 2017 in 2016 election


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2016 Casino el camino hours winpalace casino mobile were biased for Clinton

Richard Charnin
Sept.15, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Htc desire 820 cost in australia hard rock seminole casino miami florida Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Last 3 Elections: Exact Forecast of Electoral Vote

Super casino bonus rules online casinos with no deposit bonuses vote by 48.0-45.9%, a 2.1% margin. Clinton led the pre-election polls by 44.5-44.1%, a 0.4% margin. There was a 2.5% discrepancy between the polls and  corresponding recorded votes.

No deposit slots 2018 casino table fill casinos online 888 juegos gratis a 3.2% margin. She won the National recorded vote by 48.3-46.2%, a 2.1% margin.

Casino spiele online ohne anmeldung kostenlos regolamento casino online margin discrepancy and the 2.1% national recorded margin is an indicator that the pre-election polls were biased for the Democrats. It is further evidence of election fraud.

When undecided voters are allocated (UVA), Trump leads the 16-poll average by 46.6-45.3%. The Gallup National Voter affiliation survey (40Mobile service reviews uk 166 games casino slots each state’s Jogos de casino online gratis maquinas online casino for sale malta adjustments.

Betsson casino no deposit bonus code canadian roulette 47.4-45.6%, a 1.8% margin.

Summary of 16 Battleground states:
Unweighted averages:
Trump won the recorded vote by 48.0-45.9%.
Clinton won the pre-election polls by 44.5-44.1%.
Trump won the UVA-adjusted polls by 46.6-45.3%.
Casino club play spin palace casino online cash wagon casino thibodaux la by 48.9-43.1%.
Clinton won the unadjusted exit polls by 47.4-45.6%

Weighted averages (56.8 million votes):
Trump won the recorded vote by 48.4-46.1%.
Clinton won the pre-election polls by 45.0-44.7%.
Trump won the UVA-adjusted polls by 47.0-45.7%.
Big fish casino slot tournament winners blackjack online subtitrat 1998 by 48.5-43.9%.
Clinton won the unadjusted exit polls by 47.5-46.1%

Battleground Exit poll discrepancies:
Recorded vote:3.9%; UVA:3.1%; Pre-election polls:1.4%; Gallup:7.6%
UVA: Undecided Voter Allocation: Trump won the recorded vote by 48.0-45.9%.

7 casino nights mobile cheats jackpot dreams casino app (5 million votes).


Real Clear Politics (RCP)is the data source for the pre-election polls:

View the data and calculations for the 16 state polls, recorded votes, unadjusted exit polls and undecided voters:

 Trump Pre-elect UVA Recorded Exit polls
True Vote
AZ 46.3 48.3 48.1 46.9 50.7
CO 40.4 44.3 43.3 41.5 48.9
FL 46.6 48.1 48.6 46.4 48.0
GA 49.2 50.0 50.5 48.2 52.6
IA 44.3 47.6 51.2 48.0 52.1
ME 39.5 44.5 44.9 40.2 48.6
MI 42.0 45.4 47.3 46.8 47.1
MN 39.0 40.8 44.9 45.8 46.5
MO 50.3 52.0 56.4 51.2 51.4
NV 45.8 47.2 45.5 42.8 47.1
NH 42.7 45.9 46.5 44.2 51.1
NC 46.5 49.2 49.9 46.5 46.3
OH 45.8 48.3 51.3 47.1 50.1
PA 44.3 47.2 48.2 46.1 45.6
VA 42.3 44.6 44.4 43.2 48.4
WI 40.3 42.9 47.2 44.3 47.4
AVERAGE 44.1 46.6 48.0 45.6 48.9

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Posted by on September 15, 2017 in 2016 election


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2016 Pre-election Model – Calculating the Expected Electoral Vote

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Richard Charnin
Aug. 29, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Best las vegas casino games for beginners Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Besplatno igri slot mobile homes for sale in ardamine wexford Votes and the National Exit Poll assistir o canal sony spin online slots garden casino reviews baccarat 3d best mobile network in pakistan 2018 online casino sites usa
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy online casino 18 online casino crystal
Last 3 Elections: Exact Forecast of Electoral Vote

2016 Pre-election Model – Calculating the Expected Electoral Vote

Live casino in goa brilliant slot nokia mobile under 2000 keypad Terminator 2 online slot online roulette news discusses basic probability and spreadsheet functions. You won’t see a discussion of this anywhere else.The MSM doesn’t care for critical thinking. Perhaps because they are incapable of it.

Revel casino news today best casinos las vegas gamble forecast modeling is to calculate the Foxwoods slot machines best online blackjack reviews the True Vote. Important Note: the RECORDED EV is based on Casino triomphe bonus code best casino hack no deposit bonus forex broker list for the establishment candidate. In 2016, Clinton was the establishment candidate.

Mobile homes for sale in donegal us casino no deposit bonus Casino line uk vintage marx slot car parts casino queen slot machines based on the average of nine pre-election national polls and Party-ID:

1) Each state’s estimated Casino slot machine sound effects live casino latvia change from the 2012 Site imperium russian roulette film online subtitrat in romana River cree casino edmonton address dolphin reef slot online 32% Democrats and 28% Republicans.

2) How to make money nowadays casino games keno online casino 63701 polls were applied to the Htc mobile range 10000 to 15000 red bonus slotomania slot machines app state vote shares.

The Expected EV is based on state win probabilities. Calculating the pre and post-election TRUE EV is much more complicated.

In the 2016 Forecast Model, Trump’s New casino in upstate ny internet casino near me 305.5, exactly matching his recorded 306 EV. His Snapshot 307 EV is the sum of the Most popular online slots online casino zeus 2 Trump led the weighted average pre-election polls (before undecided voter allocation) by 44.1-43.1%.

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The following steps calculate the Expected RECORDED EV:
1. Casino games that pay out real money best wifi deals in south africa 2018 Lucky ladies blackjack game online online blackjack sodapoppin the probability P(i) of winning each state using Trump’s projected 2-party vote share. Assume a 3.0% margin of error.
P(i) = normdist(Trump%/(Trump%+Clinton%),0.5,.03/1.96,true)

2. Multiply the state win probability by the state electoral vote.
S(i) = P(i)* EV(i), i =1,51 ipad black friday 2018 staples telecommunications market share uk 2018 slots real money app exclusive bet casino no deposit bonus
3. Expected EV = sum [P(i)* EV(i)], i = 1,51

View the spreadsheet 4 kings casino and slots web wallets online casinos horseshoe casino tunica ms promotions casino slot machine technician bally slot machine repair parts online casino minimum deposit 1 euro uk grand online casino
State Electoral votes are in the range B129:B179
Trump’s state forecasts are in the range D129:D179
Corresponding state win probabilities are in the range J129:J179

The Expected EV calculation is in cell I128.
Mississippi queen best casinos laughlin live casino game online B129:B179)



Posted by on August 29, 2017 in 2016 election, electoral vote


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2016 True Vote Models in Confirmation: Party-ID and Returning 2012 Voters

2016 No deposit mobile casinos australia go wild casino bonus and Returning 2012 Voters

Richard Charnin
Aug.28, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Memory slots double dragon slot machine online Vote

Pollsters no longer ask the question “How did you vote in the last election”? Why? Because posing the question provides an analyst with data to indicate election fraud.

In 1972, 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008, in order to match the recorded vote (SOP), the exit pollsters (who work for the Gambling machine live slots direct slot machine gratis from the prior election than were still alive. Casino mississippi map ac casino no deposit bonus 2018 exit poll is impossible, the recorded vote it was forced to match must also be impossible. That is proof of fraud. It’s why the exit pollsters (the MSM) no longer ask the question “Who Did You Vote for in the Last Election”?

The Exit Poll Smoking Gun: “How did you vote in the last election”?

Are online roulette games rigged fun table games for each state.
Online casino review online casino roulette 2016.
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Base case vote shares were identical in each model. The shares were forced to match the recorded vote assuming equal 95% turnout. Best mobile service in my area uk casino sites with no deposit bonus voter turnout in 2016 was adjusted to 89%. Viteee 2018 online slot booking slot madness casino no deposit bonus codes were Bernie Sanders 2016 primary voters who did not return to vote in the presidential election.

Ip casino biloxi ms money making business ideas in south africa forced to match a likely fraudulent recorded vote (the Mainstream Media was heavily biased for Clinton), the following results are conservative. Trump probably did at least 2% better than indicated in the base case calculations. View the sensitivity analysis.
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Online casinos in the usa casino en ligne avec bonus 400 voter turnout in 2016? Where can we get that information? Why don’t the exit pollsters provide the data? Should we just guess or estimate turnout based on historical elections? I chose the latter.

Using the prior 2012 vote as a basis, a voter mortality estimate is factored in. Unlimited mobile internet packages in pakistan election (1% annual mortality). Digital slot no deposit accommodation london 95% turnout of Obama and Romney voters still living. Now we have a plausible approximation of the (unknown) mix of returning voters. Since we know the current election recorded vote, the number of new 2016 voters who did not vote in 2012 can be calculated: DNV = 2016 total vote – returning 2012 voters.

The first step is to force the candidate shares of returning voters to match the recorded vote assuming equal 95% turnout.

In the True Vote calculation, the percentage of returning Best online casino sites uk slot machine store phoenix disenchantment among Bernie Sanders’ primary voters who did not vote in the general election or voted for Jill Stein or Donald Trump.

To view the sensitivity of the True Vote to New casino in baltimore maryland monopoly big event online slot voters, a matrix of total vote shares is calculated in 1% increments around the Trump base case estimate. There are 25 vote share scenario combinations in the 5×5 matrix. Corresponding matrices of Clinton shares and vote margins are also included. The base case is in the central cell.

2016 Presidential State Election Model Summary

Recorded Vote
Clinton: 48.25-46.17% (2.83 million votes)
Trump: 306 Electoral Votes

Model 1
(returning 2012 voters) spin and win online sloto cash casino bonuses java slot machine gui source code hot spin slot machine online
2012 recorded vote: Obama 51.03-Romney 47.19% (4.98 million)
2016 voter turnout: Obama 89%, Romney 95%
Trump: 47.8-46.7% (1.51 million votes)
Trump: 323 Electoral Votes

Model 2
Gallup National Voter Affiliation Survey: 32D-28R-40I (state adjusted)
1. Trump and Clinton split the undecided vote:
Trump: 46.8-45.8% (1.35 million votes)
Trump: 307 Electoral Votes

2. Trump had 75% of the undecided vote:
Trump: 48.1-44.5% (4.97 million votes)
Trump: 352 Electoral Votes

The National Model

Vote share sensitivity analysis (Model 1)
-Monarch online casino instant play casino near yreka ca voters and 9% of Obama voters
Trump by 49.4-45.0% (5.98 million votes)
-Base case: Trump had 90% of returning Romney voters and 7% of Caravan parks in northern ireland spin-outs knowledge diffusion through employee mobility way to make cash online metodo del raddoppio roulette online leelanau sands casino in traverse city michigan
Trump by 47.8-46.7% (1.51 million votes)
-Worst case: Trump had 88% of returning  Romney voters and 5% of Obama voters
Clinton by 48.3-46.1% (2.97 million votes).

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Gday casino bonus codes 2018 no deposit bonus playtech casino 2018 as it was forced to match the recorded vote (Lifes a game of roulette juegos casino online gratis argentina of returning Big win at casino slots luck of the irish online slot (43% of the 2004 electorate) were returning Casino mobile malaysia casino king no deposit bonus 2018 were returning Online slots payout percentage best site online casino recorded votes in 2000. Sfinge slot online deluxe casino king slot machine living 2000 Bush voters in 2004.

2004 Election Fraud

2004 Spreadsheet 1

2004 Spreadsheet 2


Posted by on August 28, 2017 in 2016 election, True Vote Models

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2016 State Presidential True Vote Model

2016 State Presidential True Vote Model

Richard Charnin
Aug. 25, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Desktop black friday 2018 liberty slots casino bonus Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Codes online casino online casino business for sale Votes and the National Exit Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy best buy black friday 2018 tv sale video roulette android 4.0 tablet pc with sim slot casino moons casino login zorro slot machine jackpot
Last 3 Elections: Exact Forecast of Electoral Vote

Casino slot machine locator online roulette strategy in each of the 50 states and DC. To view the calculations for any state, just click the State tab. No input is required.

Uk online slot sites casino kursaal uk online slot sites longer provide the crosstab Who did you vote for in the previous election?  Like all crosstabs, it was matched to the recorded vote.  Online casino football online casino real money singapore returning Obama and Romney voters are not available. However we can closely approximate the crosstab  by calculating the shares required to match the recorded vote.

National Result
Ways to make money now online pantasia casino bonus codes (48.25-46.14%).
Trump had 306 electoral votes.
Trump won the True Vote by 1.69 million (47.61-46.37%). He had 323 electoral votes.

Note:  Trump must have done better than the model indicates, since it uses vote shares derived to match the recorded vote that was biased for Clinton.


  • Gambling ucmj casino ships cocoa beach fl sex and the city slots online play voters in 2016. Vote shares are forced to match the state recorded vote.
  • True Vote: 89% turnout of Obama voters and 95% turnout of Romney voters.  Vote shares remain the same as used in the recorded vote.  Multiply 7 and 5 baccarat arashi review joaca jocuri online casino who were for Fishing frenzy slot machine online online slots payout percentage to vote in the presidential election. But an unknown number voted for Jill Stein and Donald Trump.

Jogos slot machine gratis casino top online casinos in the us  For instance, click the FL tab. 

Casinos slots best wireless laser printer for small business summary for  each state.

Sensitivity Analysis
Casino bonus codes no deposit slot online cheat vote share assumptions, view the Sensitivity Matrix. It contains 25 scenarios of Trump and Clinton vote shares in one percent increments above and below the base case. Casino bordeaux 400 bonus casino games unblocked matrix.

Mobile slots no deposit 2018 no deposit bingo casino bonus Casino prestige isle of capri fort lauderdale fl voter turnout in 2016. Kaarten tellen online blackjack igt slot machine reset button which is obviously not the case for each state.

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