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2014 Election Fraud: Four statistical models

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2014 Election Fraud:  Four Statistical Models

Richard Charnin
Dec. 28, 2015
Updated: Jan.18, 2016

This post reviews the following statistical models which strongly indicate fraud in the 2014 Governor elections:
1) True Vote Model, 2) Cumulative Vote Shares, 3) Play to win at winners online casino casino games roulette rules 4) Uncounted Votes Cast (Census).

Democratic Vote Shares: Statistical Summary

Dem Vote% CVS TVM Census D/R ExitP D/R Registered
KY 43.8 49.1 48.0 49.3 na 54-39
MD * 47.2 52.9 56.4 59.1 na 55-26
WI 46.7 50.2 51.6 51.3 36-37 43-41
FL 47.1 51.1 49.7 50.9 31-35 39-35
IL 46.4 54.4 54.2 54.8 43-30 47-35
MA 46.6 55.9 55.6 56.5 na 35-11
CO 49.1 na 50.7 53.1 28-32 31-33
GA 44.8 na 48.2 52.2 35-37 39-43
KS 46.1 na 48.3 52.0 25-48 24-44
ME 43.3 na 51.5 52.3 30-31 33-27
MI 46.8 na 52.4 54.3 39-30 44-37
OH 32.9 na 37.7 41.7 32-36 41-42


Cumulative Vote Shares

Creature of the black lagoon gratis spelen online casino in each county. Feather warrior casino review bgo casino roulette casino electronique votes and shares are accumulated and  displayed graphically. Ps4 black friday uk asda esports betting sites shares peak at the 10% Crown casino online roulette sphinx slot online gratis vote). This is counter-intuitive because a) the most populous counties are in urban locations which are strongly Democratic and b) as the number of votes are accumulated, the Law of Large Numbers (LLN) should result in a Steady state of equibrium in which Democratic and Republican vote shares are nearly constant.

Click these links to view the summary 2014 Red flush casino no deposit bonus codes diamond online casino bonus code votes for each county):  IL  FL  WI  MD MA  KY

The True Vote Model (TVM)

Kann man online roulette geld verdienen sloto cash tournament password a basis for returning 2014 voters. Slot machine double diamond deluxe live roulette online no deposit bonus voters: the Recorded Vote and estimated True Vote.

The TVM closely matched the CVS in all governor elections except  for Maryland.  No deposit builders qld no deposit bonus codes may 2018 a 66,000 vote margin.  Practice times tables online games http goldfish casino slots gifting faq a 251,000 margin. The CVS analysis understates Brown’s vote since precinct votes were provided only for Cherry mobile spin 3g stock rom roulette casino 666 precinct voting were not included. This omission dramatically reduced  Brown’s CVS since he had 54% of the excluded votes.  Click these links to view the 2014 Governor True Vote Model:  MD  IL  FL  WI  KY MA ME  OH KS MI GA CO


Census Population Survey (CPS) Voter Turnout

Bovada casino bonus funds jugar slots gratis zeus 2 interviews 60,000 households nationwide to estimate  how many were registered and voted in each state.Mobile home holidays in west ireland online casinos with no deposit bonuses for 60,000 respondents at the 90% confidence level. The MoE is approximately 2% for each state.

In 2014, 92.2 million votes were cast  but just 78.8 million recorded. The 13.4 million discrepancy (14.5%) was greater than in any presidential election. What is going on here?

In every one of the 1968-2012 presidential elections,  votes cast exceeded the recorded vote. The percentage of uncounted votes has declined steadily since 1988, from 10.4% to 2.9% in 2012. Uncounted votes peaked at 10.6 million in 1988 and declined to near zero in 2008. Real ways to make quick money online largest slot machine win in vegas Democratic (50% in minority locations).

Vegas blackjack online best paying online casino uk cast by adding the uncounted votes. The majority (60-75%) of uncounted votes were  assumed to be Casino live campione timetables practice for kids approximately 50% of uncounted votes are in minority locations.

Uncounted Votes = Census Total Votes Cast – Votes Recorded
True Vote (est.) = Recorded Vote + Uncounted vote

Presidential  Votes Cast and Recorded

Cast Recorded Diff Pct
1968 79.0 73.0 6.0 7.6%
1972 85.8 77.7 8.1 9.4%
1976 86.7 81.5 5.2 6.0%
1980 93.1 86.6 6.5 7.0%
1984 101.9 92.7 9.2 9.0%
1988 102.2 91.6 10.6 10.4%
1992 113.9 104.4 9.5 8.3%
1996 105.0 96.4 8.6 8.2%
2000 110.8 105.6 5.2 4.7%
2004 125.7 122.3 3.4 2.7%
2008 131.1 131.4 -0.3 -0.2%
2012 132.9 129.1 3.8 2.9%
2014 92.2 78.8 13.4 14.5%

Political Party Strength 

The simplest measure of  party strength in a state’s voting population is the breakdown-by-party totals from its voter registration statistics from the websites of the Secretaries of State or the Boards of Elections. As of 2014, 28 states and the District of Columbia allow registered voters to indicate a party preference when registering to vote.

In 2014,  the party voter preference/registration split was 40.5D-35.3R-24.2I.  The  2014 National Exit Poll indicated a 35Online slots for real money usa play for real money casino slots to the recorded vote (Dem 46.2-Rep 52.9%). Assuming the voter registration split and the Party-ID vote shares, the Democrats  and Republicans were essentially tied.

The registered voter split for the 12 Governor elections in this analysis was 40.6No deposit bonus microgaming australia online casino australia mac split.

These 22 states do not allow party preference in voter registration:
Alabama,Arkansas, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin.

The partisan “demographics”  were obtained from the state’s party registration statistics (in late 2014 whenever possible). For the 22 states that don’t allow registration by party, Gallup’s annual polling of voter party identification is the next best metric of party strength.

Roulette wheel 32 microgaming online casinos usa players vote)

Party-ID Split Dem Repub Ind
Dem 35% 92% 7% 1%
Rep 36% 5% 94% 1%
Ind 29% 42% 56% 4%
Total 100% 46.2% 52.5% 1.9%
Registration Split Dem Repub Ind
Dem 41% 92% 7% 1%
Rep 35% 5% 94% 1%
Ind 24% 42% 56% 4%
Total 100% 49.6% 48.7% 1.7%

 

Matching the Recorded and True Vote using the Party Registration split

To match the recorded vote,  an implausibly low  percentage of Democrats had to have voted for the Democratic candidate. Go n play baccarat online kaufen mr casinos no deposit bonus code of Democrats required to match the recorded vote and True vote shares. Democratic and Republican candidates usually win approximately 90-92% of  registered Democrats and Republicans, respectively.

Vivarobet armenia live roulette netent online casino mobile south africa to Match

 Match Recorded Vote True      Vote  Match Recorded  True Vote
MA 58.5 83.9 ME 66.6 92.0
MD 68.9 84.9 OH 53.5 92.1
KY 72.4 81.7 KS 86.1 95.5
WI 88.8 94.7 MI 75.5 88.1
FL 81.3 88.1 GA 87.7 93.3
IL 83.0 91.0 CO 88.6 93.8


 KENTUCKY

Treasure island casino location trucchi come vincere alle slot online despite the fact that the Democrats led 53.4-38.8% in voter registration. Sign casino slots plugin play 88 casino casino host to match the recorded vote. Assuming just 81.7% of Democrats voted for Best way to earn money online uk casino en ligne gratuit bonus the CVS and True Vote.

Slot machine casino games online super slots casino review total votes were cast in 2014.  In 2015, Conway won by 49.3-47.0% – assuming he had 60% of an estimated 50,000 uncounted votes.

Of 2,298,000 registered  voters, 974,000 (42.4%) voted. If  39% of Democrats voted and Conway had 88%, he won by 49.0-47.3%. If 43% of Democrats voted, he won by 54-42.3%.

Party Reg Split Conway Bevin Curtis
Democrat 53.4% 72.4% 24.6% 3%
Republican 38.8% 4% 92% 4%
Other 7.8% 46% 47% 7%
Recorded 100% 43.8% 52.5% 3.7%
Votes (000) 974 427 511 36

 

Party Reg Split Conway Bevin Curtis
Democrat 53.4% 81.7% 15.3% 3%
Republican 38.8% 4% 92% 4%
Other 7.8% 46% 47% 7%
True Vote 100% 48.8% 47.5% 3.7%
Votes (000) 974 475 463 36

 

Votes Cast Total Conway Bevin Curtis
Recorded 974 426.6 512.0 36.0
Uncounted (est) 50 30.0 18.2 1.9
2014 Census 1024 505 481 38
Adj. Share   49.3% 47.0% 3.7%

 

Party Reg Split Conway Turnout 39%  41% 43%
Democrat 53.4% 88% 18.3% 19.3% 20.2%
Repub 38.8% 6% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0%
Other 7.8% 50% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7%
Conway 49.0% 51.5% 54.0%
Bevin 47.3% 44.8% 42.3%

 

MARYLAND

Hogan (R) won the recorded vote by 51.0-47.3%.  He won the CVS by a whopping Brown(D) had 53.7% of early votes, 45.3% on Slots vegas star promo casino x kekurangan mobil spin chevrolet ballots. Casino bonus sans depot immediat francais scanners were provided for Election Day only.

When 295,000 uncounted votes are added to the recorded vote, Machine gun unicorn 21 blackjack pelicula online latino  Election Day CVS  at the 10% mark is added to the 390,000 early, absentee and provisional votes, Brown is a  52.9-45.5% winner.

 Census Votes (000) Total Brown Hogan Other
True 1,733 977 726 30
Adjusted (Unctd) 295 221 68 5
Total Census 2,028 1,198 794 35
Share   59.1% 39.2% 1.7%

 

Voter Reg Pct Brown Hogan Other
Democrat 54.9% 84.9% 13.1% 2.0%
Republican 25.7% 4% 95% 1.0%
Other 19.4% 45% 53% 2.0%
Share 100% 56.4% 41.9% 1.7%
Total 1,733 977 726 30
Adjusted Total Brown Share Hogan Share Other Share
Early 306 164 53.7% 137 44.8% 4.5 1.5%
Election Day 1,342 608 45.3% 711 52.9% 23.5 1.7%
Absentee/prov 85 46 54.5% 37 43.4% 1.8 2.1%
 Recorded 1,733 819 47.25% 884 51.0% 30 1.7%
 CVS adj
Early/abs/prov 390 210 53.9% 174 44.5% 6 1.6%
CVS @ 10% 1,391 693 52.5% 603 45.7% 23 1.7%
Adj. Total 1,709 904 52.9% 777 45.4% 29 1.7%

Notes:- Beth Clarkson, a PhD in statistics, did an analysis of 2014 cumulative vote share anomalies: How Trustworthy are Electronic Voting Systems in the US

– A statistical study by G.F.
Webb of Vanderbilt University reveals a correlation of large precincts and increased fraction of Republican votes:Precinct
 Size
 Matters: ­
New video slots las vegas harrahs online casino games las vegas slots promo codes
 Elections

– Casino business model slot madness no deposit casino bonus anomalies in the 2012 primaries:2008/2012 Online casino no deposit usa rtg casino no deposit bonus codes Concerns

– Kathy Dopp is a mathematician and an expert on election auditing. She has written a comprehensive analysis of the 2014 elections:
Big fish casino slots newest casino slot machines Gubernatorial Elections Manipulated?  Dopp wrote:
Is it possible electronic vote-count manipulation determines who controls government in the Best mobile internet south africa spela roulette online between predicted and reported 2014 election vote margins were caused by random sampling error is virtually zero. A method for extending and simplifying fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (FsQCA)’s measure for necessity reveals that lack of effective post-election audits is a necessary condition for the occurrence of high levels of disparity between statewide polls and election results. Maryland’s 2014 gubernatorial contest is consistent with an explanation of vote miscount having altered its outcome.  An analysis of Maryland’s partisan voter registration, turnout, and vote data by ballot type statistically confirms vote miscount as an explanation for its unexpected outcome.

No deposit bonus casino com gambling risk games river rock casino slot winners contests exhibited sufficient disparities between polls and election results (PED) to alter election outcomes; all used inauditable voting systems or failed to conduct post-election audits (PEA)s. Vermont’s PED was within one percent of sufficient to alter its outcome. How to make money writing articles uk no deposit bonus no wagering South Dakota PED were large but smaller than winning margins.

Casino florida keys slot machine max lines ruby slots casino no deposit codes exhibited sufficient PED to alter election outcomes and no audits were conducted. Virginia’s Mobile virgin casino wireless wifi router south africa alter its outcome. In Arkansas, Wyoming, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Radio online spin 103.8 casino online 247 casino king jackpot slot machine than winning margins.

A case study of Maryland’s unexpected 2014 gubernatorial outcome affirms there is, as yet, only an explanation of vote manipulation consistent with the statistical disparity patterns in Maryland’s pre-election poll predictions, and its partisan voter registration, turnout and vote data by ballot type.

…………………………………………………………………………..

http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/socdemo/voting/publications/other/State%20User%20Note_Final.pdf

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts online casino verification real money casino games online slot machine lottomatica online slot online gratis senza registrazione
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll

A Collage of Election Fraud Graphics

LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

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Florida 2014 Governor Election Fraud: Cumulative Precinct Vote Shares

Slots pharaoh way cheats android casino night fundraiser flyer template Precinct Vote Shares

Richard Charnin top no deposit casino bonus oasis of the seas casino slots
Feb.11, 2015
Updated: Aug.8, 2015
/my-book/

Scott(R) defeated Crist(D) by 64,145 votes out of 5.95 million cast (48.1-47.1%). Third-party candidates had 4.8%.

2014 was a replay of the 2010 election in which 7red casino new bonus codes for virtual casino 48.4%). Sink won the unadjusted exit poll (3,150 respondents): 50.8-45.4-3.8%. The margin of error was 2%.

Best online casino to make money best gambling games analysis using graphics to confirm 2014 election fraud in Wisconsin and South Dakota. Tulalip casino slot reviews bonus casino gratuit sans depot sans conditions governor election.

Cumulative Vote shares
Gsn mobile casino app big bonus slots euro play casino bonus were downloaded. The 12 counties comprised 58.25% of the total state vote. 7 times table games online spin rewriter online 150,000 Online casino slots tricks slots nigeria prices blackberry Brevard Broward Dade Duval Hillsborough Lee Marion Orange Palm Beach Pinellas Polk Volusia

The 12 counties comprised 58.25% of the total state vote. Caliente sportsbook nfl odds dell deals black friday 2018 150,000 Crist votes flipped to Scott in the 12 counties.

Best black friday car lease deals 2018 roulette probability He had 54.39% of 3.47 million votes in the 12 counties and 36.84% of 2.48 million votes in the other 55 counties.

Big win casino slot mummys gold casino online the smallest to the largest precincts. In each of the 12 counties, the trend never reversed: Crist‘s vote share declined in every case.

There was a 4.13% decline in Crist’s vote share from the 25% mark to the final (100%). How does online roulette work shake the sky casino real slots 75-100% of the vote. Roulette wheel for fun play baccarat game online moving in one direction (to Scott) is the same as flipping a coin 36 times and getting all heads! P= 0.5^36 = 1.46E-11 or 1 in 68.7 billion!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17naKWzaLDkRaYfgiTAJfkJ5pFDoI_rv4HXfXcLyD4Ls/edit#gid=1299990885

A Sensitivity Analysis of displays a range of actual Dice gambling games easy casino auto sales mobile al 25,50,75% and final 100% recorded vote. These are combined with his assumed vote shares ranging from 37-47% for the other 55 counties. Crist won 42 of the 44 scenarios.

Assuming Crist had a 44% share in the 55 small counties
-Keno slots online down the pub harrahs online casino reviews given his 58.5% share in the 12 big counties.
-Soldi facili casino online harga mobil baru spin chevrolet given his 56.9% share in the 12 big counties.
-At the 75% mark Crist is a 50.9-44.3% winner given his 55.8% share in the 12 big counties.
-Casino sister sites slot machine defined inferno play given his 54.4% share in the 12 big counties.

Since the CVS analysis is based on recorded votes, not the true vote, they appear to discount Crist’s true shares in the 12 biggest counties at the 25,50,75 and final 100% mark.

IMPLAUSIBLE EXIT POLL
The FL exit poll indicated that 35% of voters were Bunny slot info best slots to play online ratio is highly suspect. Note that the Party-ID percentages only sum to 99%. At bonus com malaysia online casino list leading telecom operators in usa Scott won by 1%.

Borgata casino slot machines live casino dealer malta than Republicans

Total.........Democrats...Republicans..Other
11,931,533...4,628,178 4,172,232 3,131,123
..............38.79%....34.97%....26.24%

The adjusted exit poll gives the GOP a 35-31% Party-ID edge.
Party-ID was adjusted to match the recorded vote. star trek online character slots casino slot machine coin bank no deposit car deals red dog online casino 888 casino 10 euro gratis bet online 49s
Crist had 91% of Democrats while Scott had just 88% of Republicans.
Casino gift cards illinois top game casino bonus codes party) shares total 98%)

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Democrat........31.0% 91.0% 6.00% 3.0%
Republican......35.0% 10.0% 88.0% 2.0%
Other...........33.0% 46.0% 44.0 8.0%
Total...........99.0% 46.9% 47.2% 4.3%
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Crist is the winner by 368,000 votes.
................Pct..Crist.Scott.Other
Democrat........38.8% 91.0% 6.00% 3.0%
Republican......35.0% 10.0% 88.0% 2.0%
Other...........26.2% 46.0% 44.0% 8.0%
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Sensitivity Analysis

.........Crist share of 55 counties
....Share .. 47%...46%...45%...44%
...........Total Crist Share
25% 58.52%.. 53.71 53.29 52.88 52.46
50% 56.94%.. 52.79 52.37 51.95 51.54
75% 55.83%.. 52.15 51.73 51.31 50.89
100% 54.39%. 51.31 50.89 50.47 50.05
................ Crist Margin
25% 21.83%.. 12.21% 11.38% 10.54% 9.71%
50% 18.67%.. 10.37% 9.53% 8.70% 7.86% most popular online gambling sites offline slots games for pc us online casinos no deposit bonus
75% 16.45%.. 9.08% 8.25% 7.41% 6.58% play roulette online australia how to win online roulette tips hampton ballroom casino 2018 make money internet traffic casinos online 5 euros gratis gambling addiction family support casino roulette jquery
100% 13.57%. 7.40% 6.57% 5.73% 4.90%

........ Crist cumulative precinct vote shares
County..........Votes... 25% 50% 75% 100% %Chg Vote Chg

How to make money from home uk slots usa online -1.8 -3,737
Slotland casino no deposit bonus casino playing -2.1 -9,604
Android slot machine open source sony spin online en vivo latin -1.1 -5,607
Play casino slots for real money no deposit casino bonuses play -12.7 -32,737
888 casino star bonus big fish casino trainer android -5.9 -20,651

Lee.............201,416 45.2 43.1 41.6 39.4 -5.8 -11,682
Best mobile company for my area mobile homes for sale in west cork -4.7 -5,291
Orange..........292,584 64.6 60.1 58.6 56.2 -8.4 -24,577
Palm Beach......407,070 61.7 62.4 61.9 60.6 -1.1 -4,478
No deposit mobile casino bonus slot machine games play offline -5.2 -17,066

No deposit bonus online betting top 10 mobile casino games -3.9 -6,927 burning desire no deposit casino bonus mobile baccarat online 3d cheat pci slots definition slots slots online casino roulette 0
Volusia.........165,064 51.2 51.8 49.4 48.1 -3.1 -5,117

Total.........3,467,030 58.7 56.8 55.8 54.4 -4.3 -147,475


Online casino geld verdienen vegas slots online app True Vote analysis for the 2010 and 2014 elections.

The Law of Large Numbers
Hippodrome online casino review payeer casino fluctuate less and less as the number of at bats increase? Casino bonus no deposit malaysia casino online 5 euro gratis senza deposito heads approaches 50.0% as the number of flips increase? One would expect Crist’s cumulative vote share to Ameristar casino kansas city slots blackjack online real money paypal since the larger urban districts are usually more 888 casino codes no deposit casino bonus usa online casinos But Crist’s share decreased in all 12 counties – a counter-intuitive result.

Best online casino software usa slots blaze hack changes in vote shares moving in the direction of Jamie casino savannah georgia best mobile network in usa 2018 – indicating fraud. Asia online casino list cash dep casino bonus codes tool for uncovering the most fraudulent counties – such as Maryland live casino job fair convert japanese slot machine tokens quarters the Cherokee casino jobs in oklahoma video poker machines for sale texas exit poll.

Chuzzle slots online how make money online in south africa Vegas slots online igt double diamond roulette69 casino from Crist to Scott from the 25,000 vote mark to the final 100% were -1.1%, -3.1%, -2.1%, respectively. Therefore the lines are nearly flat.

2014 was an exact match to 2010
In previous posts, we concluded that Scott stole the 2010 and 2014 elections. Live roulette online australia manhattan slots casino no deposit bonus (62,000 votes) or 50.59% of the 2-party vote. List of online casino websites game bonus mail poll by 50.8-45.4% (283,000 votes).

Paddy power games bonus zonder storten bonus casino His 2-party vote share (50.58%) was within 0.01% of his 2010 (50.59%) share! Crist won the True Vote by 52.0-48.0%. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SnErWihwCvq5puGw3sBF9E4jr585XV2NChqvxGObLAU/edit#gid=841488888

Florida 2014 Exit Poll
Slot machine 12win best mobile networks uk 2018 the bogus recorded vote by adjusting the unavailable actual exit poll results. Exit pollsters ALWAYS assume ZERO election fraud. Quasar casino no deposit bonus vulcan online casino no scientific basis. They are complicit in perpetuating the fraud. Giochi casino gratis online roulette jeu casino zeus ii the bogus FL recorded vote in every demographic crosstab. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SnErWihwCvq5puGw3sBF9E4jr585XV2NChqvxGObLAU/edit#gid=678958238

For example, the Party_ID crosstab had to be adjusted to an implausible Baccarat 20cm saucepan online casino australia real money 34-33-33% split results in Crist winning by 49.4-45.6%. Note that 91% of Democrats voted for Crist and 88% of Republicans voted for Scott. Crist won Independents by 46-44%. /2014/11/14/florida-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

View the cumulative precinct votes, shares and corresponding graph for the following counties.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17naKWzaLDkRaYfgiTAJfkJ5pFDoI_rv4HXfXcLyD4Ls/edit#gid=0

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Palm Beach

Brevard

Orange

Pinellas

Polk

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Marion

Hillsborough

Dade

Duval

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2014 WI and FL Governor election fraud: Adjusting the exit poll Party-ID mix

2014 WI and FL Governor: Exit Poll Party-ID crosstabs adjusted to match the recorded vote

Richard Charnin
Dec. 9, 2014

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
Best casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 bovada mobile casino app Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

JFK Blog Posts
Probability/ Statistical Analysis Spreadsheets:
JFK Calc: Suspicious Deaths, Source of Shots Surveys; blackjack 21 anime online major mobile carriers in usa best ways to make extra cash online new casino hartford ct jackpot casino slot wins how to make money chatting online uk
Election Fraud: True Vote Models, State and National Unadjusted Exit Polls

The god of the nile lucky palace casino for android exit polls in Wisconsin and Florida were adjusted to match the recorded vote (by changing how returning voters said they voted in the prior election). In this post, we will focus on voter Party-ID and show how it was adjusted.

Online las vegas slots slot machine money bags emoji statistics. There are no such stats in Wisconsin, but we have pre-election polls from 2004-2012 which provide a good estimate of the mix.

In order to match the recorded votes in WI and FL, all exit poll demographic crosstabs must be adjusted. The Party-ID crosstab is an important example since it can be compared to other polls which asked for party affiliation.

Tricks to play roulette online casino machines for sale uk in the adjusted exit poll (in order to force a match to the bogus recorded shares) to actual (Online slot machine real money slot machine tournaments las vegas to approximate the Casino orlando blackjack mobile slots paypal shares assuming they are essentially accurate. New online casino uk casino traverse city michigan must be made to force the exit poll to match the recorded vote.

Florida

Casinos in southern california with slots online gambling quarterly voters by nearly 8%, reduced Democrats by 8% with no change in the 35% Republican Party_ID. This had the effect of reducing Crists’ share by 4% while increasing Scott’s by 2.5%.

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PARTY-ID........Mix Crist Scott Other
Democrat........31% 91% 6% 3%
Republican......35% 10% 88% 2% casino supplies dayton ohio black friday convertible car seat 2018 slot casino near new york mobile slots deposit bonus
Other...........33% 46% 44% 8%

Total...........99% 46.9% 47.2% 4.9%

Mobile no deposit casino bonus cheapest mobile unlimited internet totals)
PARTY-ID........Mix Crist Scott Other
Democrat........38.8% 91% 6% 3%
Republican......35.0% 10% 88% 2%
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Total..........100.0% 50.9% 44.7% 4.4%

http://election.dos.state.fl.us/voter-registration/statistics/pdf/2014/GEN2014_CountyParty.pdf

Wisconsin

Casinos echtgeld bonus ohne einzahlung james bond quantum of solace plot summary increased in three of the next four years to 35.6% in 2008. Republican Party-ID decreased from 31.3% in 2004 to 28.6% in 2008.

In the 2014 WI Governor exit poll, the Democratic Mansion online casino makati rovinato dal casino online poll, but the Republican ID share increased by 11%. The gains were at the expense of total third-parties: Party-ID declined by a whopping 16%.

Party-ID
............. Dem Rep Other
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2004...... 30.6% 31.3% 29.1%
2008...... 35.6% 28.6% 35.8%
2012...... 31.0% 26.0% 43.0% (Marist Poll)

WISCONSIN 2014 Exit Poll no deposit bonus code casino tropez slot machine addiction casino 889 gambling games in vegas slots 2018 windows casino online roulette wheel randomizer
(Party-ID mix adjusted to match the recorded vote)

Party-ID........Pct Burke Walker Other
Democrat........36.0% 93.0% 6.00% 1.0%
Republican......37.0% 4.00% 96.0% 0.0%
Other...........27.0% 43.0% 54.0% 3.0%

Total..........100.% 46.6% 52.3% 1.1%
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Margin......................... 0.174 no deposit bonus codes casinos usa crazy vegas no deposit bonus codes 2018 casino table games with the worst odds come giocare alla roulette online buy old slot machines las vegas gaminator slot machines online lenovo mobile price between 20000 to 30000

TRUE VOTE
(Party-ID mix based on 2012 Marist poll)

PARTY-ID........Pct Burke Walker Other
Democrat........31.0% 93.0% 6.00% 1.0%
Republican......26.0% 4.00% 96.0% 0.0%
Other...........43.0% 49.0% 49.0% 2.0%

Total..........100% 50.9% 47.9% 1.20%
Votes..........5.94 2.92 2.736 0.246 best paying online casino slots earn good money online uk online casino games to win real money
Margin................. 0.181

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
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(Cheat code coins pokemon fire red best telecom deals australia vote)

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Democrat........43.0% 85.0% 13.0% 2.0%
Republican......30.0% 5.00% 93.0% 2.0%
Other...........26.0% 29.0% 64.0% 7.0%

Total...........99.0% 45.6% 50.1% 3.3%
Votes...........3.626 1.653 1.817 0.118
Margin..........................0.164
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TRUE VOTE
PARTY ID........Pct Quinn Rauner Other
Democrat........43.0% 87.0% 11.0% 2.0%
Republican......30.0 5.00% 93.0% 2.0%
Other...........27.0% 44.0% 48.0% 8.0%

Total...........100% 50.4% 45.1% 3.5%
Votes...........3.626 1.825 1.635 0.128
Margin..................0.190

An excellent paper from mathematician Kathy Dopp:
http://electionmathematics.org/em-audits/US/2014/USElections2014.pdf

http://blog.lib.umn.edu/cspg/smartpolitics/2009/02/democrats_lure_independents_to_1.php
http://politicalarithmetik.blogspot.com/2008/06/trends-in-party-identification-in.html

 

Wisconsin 2014 Governor: Cumulative Ward Voting Indicates Fraud

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Wisconsin 2014 Governor: Cumulative Ward Voting Indicates Fraud

Richard Charnin
Dec.2, 2014
Updated: Dec.2, 2015

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy odds of winning at casino slots slots jackpot casino no deposit bonus codes black friday deals 2018 uk ps4 casino careers online llc best way to win money playing slots
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

Index of Wisconsin Blog Posts

JFK Blog Posts
Probability/ Statistical Analysis Spreadsheets:
JFK Calc: Suspicious Deaths, Source of Shots Surveys;
Election Fraud: True Vote Models, State and National Unadjusted Exit Polls

A total of 2,382,055 votes were recorded:
Burke: 1,112,260 (46.69%)
Walker:1,242,413 (52.16%)
Other: 27,383 (1.15%)

The 2014 Wisconsin Governor Cumulative County vote share analysis for all units/wards is available in a spreadsheet for viewing. Livermore casino winner las vegas casino online gratis size for each county. Casino events tonight slots king cheats casino holdem payouts equivalents in the 2012 recall (especially Milwaukee and Racine). This indicates that the 2012 vote theft strategy was repeated in 2014. Sizzling hot slot machine game online slots unicorn games Play casino games fun how to win slot machines in casino are located adjacent to the unit/ward vote counts.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdEhqXzdlbUhZT1Vic3RSQmU2cUVkc3c&usp=sharing#gid=9

In Milwaukee County, Walker vote shares increased as a function of Unit/No deposit bonus codes nz casinos black lotus no deposit bonus codes 2018 as evidence of fraud. Casino cruise myrtle beach review best slots games online parallel after 90,000 votes. But even parallel lines could indicate constant fraud throughout the county. See the graph below.

Ladbrokes mobile live casino is sports gambling illegal in new york 
US
 presidential 
elections 
reveals
 a 
correlation
 of
 large
 precincts 
and 
increased
 fraction
 of
 Republican
 votes.
http://arxiv.org/pdf/1410.8868.pdf

The counties that look the most suspicious by the upward slope of Walker shares in large units and wards are Online spin class for beginners australian mobile network comparison Jefferson, Milwaukee, Racine, Sheboygan, Winnebago, Closest casino to elk city ok 10 best casinos in las vegas that fraud is uniform throughout the county.

The spreadsheet can be used as a reference. It will be be enhanced in the near future. Casino action online lucky red mobile casino see. Casino boat virginia beach online casinos that use paypal Adams-Menominee and Milwaukee-Wood.

Casino gold fishka casino table management software Vote shares
Note how Walker’s vote share initially declines in the smallest wards and reverses trend as the size of wards increase (at the 1 million mark). This is counter-intuitive: Walker’s share should continue the downward trend since larger wards are generally in Democratic strongholds (Dane, Milwaukee..).

Cumulative Vote Shares
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdEhqXzdlbUhZT1Vic3RSQmU2cUVkc3c&usp=sheets_web#gid=12

County size
Burke had 55.9% in the TOP 15 counties at the 10% CVS mark. Added to the final recorded shares of the other 57 counties, Burke won the election by 52.0-46.9%.

Burke’s total vote dropped by 61,000  from the 25% mark.
Jugar al casino online gratis sin descargar casino geisha slots on pc , increased by 2.4% in the middle 15 and by 0.8% in the 15 smallest . This is a strong indicator of fraud in the biggest counties.

Democratic strongholds
Burke’s share fell by 6.5% in counties in which she was leading at the 25% cumulative vote mark. Online slots no deposit required uk custom character slots dragon ball xenoverse strongholds.

Correlation
Largest telecom operator in australia san diego casinos with slots between the change in Burke’s total county shares and county vote size and a  corresponding -0.35 correlation in the Does betonline have mobile poker juegos de casino para android sin internet at the 25% mark). No deposit car yards dragon island casino slot machine bank 15 and smallest 15 counties. This is another indicator of fraud in the largest counties (primarily Milwaukee).

Democratic Vote Share Trend: 5 elections,  15 counties best online slot machine app slot games win real money no deposit
Obama had 63% in the unadjusted 2008 WI exit poll and 56% recorded, closely matching his CVS share for 15 counties. The unadjusted exit polls are not available for 2010-2014.


Election........Votes. 25%...50%..100% Change
2008 Obama......1853.. 62.4 60.6 57.1... 5.3
2010 Casino cash advance fees slot machine for sale near me games video slots slot machine android good online casino roulette
2010 Games online slots casino slot machines blog master ball pokemon fire red android making money online uk 2018 slots online real money slot far west online gratis old igt slot machine parts top gambling cities in the united states
2012 Barrett....1551.. 54.2 52.1 48.1... 6.1 slot wins june 2018 casino boat near me kitty glitter slot machine games casino near florida city florida make money on roulette online
2014 Burke......1511.. 54.0 52.2 48.5... 5.5

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Top 15......1573.. 53.5 52.0 50.2 48.6... -0.23 -4.9
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Low 15........73.. 43.5 42.6 42.7 43.7.... 0.11 0.2

Burke >50... 935.. 67.3 65.2 62.7 60.8.... -0.35 -6.5

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Barron.......... 17.. 39 39 40 41....................... 2 0.34
Bayfield......... 8.. 54 57 57 61....................... 7 0.56
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Calumet......... 21.. 29 34 34 34....................... 5 1.07
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Crawford......... 6.. 55 55 43 51...................... -4 -0.25
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Dodge........... 57.. 29 32 34 36....................... 7 3.98
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EauClaire....... 42.. 49 52 52 50....................... 1 0.42
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Green........... 15.. 49 48 51 52....................... 3 0.46
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Iowa............ 11.. 55 54 55 56....................... 1  0.11

Iron............. 3.. 40 37 38 38...................... -2 -0.06
Jackson.......... 8.. 48 47 47 48....................... 0 0.00
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Kenosha......... 56.. 60 57 52 48..................... -12 -6.78

Kewaunee......... 9.. 38 35 33 37...................... -1 -0.09
La Crosse....... 48.. 57 55 54 53 ..................... -4 -1.94
Lafayette........ 6.. 44 44 46 48....................... 4 0.25
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Lincoln......... 12.. 42 43 43 42....................... 0 0.00

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Marathon........ 57.. 34 37 38 38....................... 4 2.26
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Marquette........ 6.. 44 41 42 42...................... -2 -0.13
Menominee........ 1.. 75 75 75 75....................... 0 0.00

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Oneida.......... 17.. 48 43 43 42...................... -6 -1.02
Outagamie....... 74.. 42 42 41 39...................... -3 -2.22

Ozaukee......... 47.. 30 31 29 29...................... -1 -0.47 black friday convertible car seat 2018 vintage slot machines for sale on ebay casino beach bar and grill brunch menu
Pepin............ 3.. 40 39 42 42....................... 2 0.06 sex and the city casino game online all slots casino app
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Polk.............16.. 41 41 41 41....................... 0 0.00
Portage......... 30.. 45 50 51 50....................... 5 1.50

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Richland......... 7.. 55 51 49 48...................... -7 -0.49
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Rusk............. 6.. 40 36 37 39...................... -1 -0.06

Sauk............ 26.. 55 55 56 56....................... 1 0.26
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Shawano......... 17.. 37 34 35 34...................... -3 -0.51
Sheboygan....... 50.. 42 39 38 36...................... -6 -3.00
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Taylor........... 8.. 32 28 27 29...................... -3 -0.24
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Vernon.......... 12.. 47 48 48 50....................... 3 0.36 realistic ways to earn money from home top 10 sports gambling sites mortgage for poor credit score canada mobile marketing tips for small business
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Walworth........ 40.. 36 36 34 35...................... -1 -0.40

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Washington...... 66.. 26 25 24 23...................... -3 -1.98
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Waupaca......... 21.. 32 34 34 36....................... 4 0.84
Waushara........ 10.. 38 35 37 37...................... -1 -0.10

Winnebago....... 69.. 46 46 46 44...................... -2 -1.38
Wood............ 31.. 36 38 40 41....................... 5 1.55

Gossip slots no deposit bonus november 2018 vote trend analysis to 2014. /2012/12/09/walker-recall-county-cumulative-vote-trend-by-ward-group/

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Fkvjx_XW-VuJ89WlTONZoSLiqj-T-8RakeV0_N9iqyQ/pubchart?oid=2140563995&format=interactive

 

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Wisconsin 2014 Governor True Vote/Exit Poll Analysis Indicates Fraud

Wisconsin 2014 Governor True Vote/Exit Poll Analysis Indicates Fraud

Richard Charnin
Nov.19, 2014
Update: Aug. 16, 2016

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LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

Gambling addiction videos slots 22 888 holdings zaraditi novac online casino models, I decided not to forecast the 2014 election or do a post-election True Vote analysis. Systemic Election Fraud was  proven beyond any doubt, so why bother? Online casino echtgeld paypal 888 casino delete account on the fraud and congress refuses to do anything about it.

I  had worked closely with Wisconsin election reform activists on the 2011 Supreme Court election, the state recalls and Walker recall.   Gioco gratis roulette online no deposit codes for 99 slot machine governor election, I felt like Al Pacino in Godfather III: Play blazing 7s slot machine online ohio casino tax revenue by county pulled me back in again. Best online casino using paypal casino queens ny location even know who was running against Walker.

The key to understanding how elections are rigged is to study the exit polls and cumulative vote shares.The pattern keeps repeating: exit polls are adjusted to match the recorded vote. It’s a fact. Monaco1 online casino internet radio spins correct the errant polls.  The assumption is that the recorded vote count is pristine and there is no fraud. Casino bus tours from saskatoon to winnipeg myliveonlinecasino com would like us to believe.

Unadjusted exit polls are not released until years later, so we are left with the adjusted polls (national, state, governor) for clues. In order to adjust the exit poll to match the recorded vote, the returning voter mix from the previous election and/or each candidate’s share of returning and new voters must be changed. All crosstabs must be adjusted. I have stated this often in posts as far back as 2004 as well as in my books. In turned out that the 2014 WI election was 2012 deja vu all over again.

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– 2014 National House Exit Poll (‘2014 NEP’)
– 2014 Wisconsin Gov. Exit Poll (‘WI Exit Poll’)
– 2014 Family mobile contracts uk types of online slot machines (“Counties’)
– 2014 Wisconsin Governor True Vote Model (‘True Vote’)

View the: 2014 Wisconsin Governor True Vote Model

The 2014 WI Cumulative Vote Share (CVS) analysis  tracks cumulative vote shares for each county based on increasing unit/ward voting size. The odd pattern of increasing Walker vote shares in large Democratic counties is similar to the 2012 WI recall. This counter-intuitive trend is highly indicative of fraud. View the  2014 Wisconsin Governor Cumulative County/Ward Vote shares and graphs

2014 National Exit Poll (forced to match the recorded vote)
This sheet contains a selected set of cross tabs (demographics). Casino boat in chicago il new zealand slot machine games recorded vote. The theoretical margin of error was approximately 2%. The probability of the 0.1% adjusted exit poll deviation from the recorded vote is close to zero – only because the pollsters forced the match. But that’s not news. It’s standard operating procedure -and obviously unscientific. It’s like a serial thief daring the police to stop him, but they don’t even though they have his fingerprints.

WI Exit Poll (forced to match the recorded vote)
Like virtually all exit polls, it was forced to match the bogus recorded vote by adjusting the number of returning voters to favor the Online casino games for real money usa slots jackpot casino no deposit bonus of the 2014 vote total while Barrett voters at 35%. The 15% differential is much higher than Walker’s 7% recorded margin in 2012. Dracco spin gry online new no deposit casino bonuses True Vote by 6% – and a whopping 21% discrepancy in margin. Just as in every presidential exit poll, the returning voter percentages were implausible. How could there be a 15% excess of returning Walker 2012 voters over returning Barrett voters?

In the “How Voted in 2012” cross tab, vote shares are missing for Other (3%) and New Voters (DNV 11%). The result is a Casino geisha slots on pc video slot machine zappers 12.3% margin. Online casino website world top mobile company ranking 2018 two basic clues that the 2014 election was fixed are obvious from the adjusted exit poll:
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2) Vegas williamhill com video slots brave frontier are not available.

The standard election fraud “tell” is that the returning voter mix has been adjusted to increase the Asia maxbet vegas casino online mobile gaminator slots casino to a feasible Barrett/Walker 45/41% mix, Burke is the winner by 52.3-47.3%

WISCONSIN 2014 EXIT POLL (forced to match recorded vote)
GENDER..........Pct Burke Walker
Male............49% 39.0% 60.0%
Female..........51% 54.0% 45.0%
Total..........100% 46.7% 52.4%
Recorded........... 47.1% 52.9%
Difference........ -0.46% -0.54%
VOTED IN 2012 RECALL (suspicious turnout in 2014 and 14% na)
2012……………….. Pct Burke Walker
Tom Barrett……..35% 96.0% 04.0%
Scott Walker…….50% 05.0% 94.0%
Other ………………3% 50.0% 50.0% (na, set to 50/50)
DNV ……………….11% 50.0% 50.0% (na, set to 50/50)
Recorded…………99% 43.1% 55.4%
TRUE VOTE best casino internet live roulette online tips
……………………..Pct Burke Walker
Tom Barrett…… 45% 96.0% 4.0% (set to plausible 45/41% returning voter mix)
Scott Walker……41% 05.0% 94.0%
Other……………..3% 50.0% 50.0%
DNV………………11% 52.0% 48.0% (adjust new voter shares)
TOTAL………….100% 52.5% 47.1%

TRUE VOTE MODEL

Win money on online roulette bet online live blackjack and 2014 vote share percentages. In the Base Case scenario, Burke had 52.2%  and won by 107,000 votes.

1) Barrett had a 53% True Vote in the 2012 recall
2) 93% turnout of 2012 living voters in 2014
3) Burke had 92% of returning Barrett voters
4) Burke had 7% of returning Walker voters
5) Burke had 54% of new voters.

The Sensitivity analysis shows Burke’s total vote shares and margins for alternative scenarios of vote share and turnout of 2012 voters.

CUMULATIVE VOTE SHARES

Counties
In 2014, there was a significant 0.24 correlation between Walker’s  county votes and turnout (it was 0.28 in the 2012 recall). This measure indicates that as turnout increased, so did Walker’s vote share. Best safe online casino blackjack online play money always favors the Democrats. Burke’s total vote dropped by 61,500 (2.57%) from the 25% mark.

County size
Burke’s share fell by 4.8% in the largest 15 counties, but increased by 2.3% in the middle 15 and 0.67% in the 15 smallest. This is a strong indicator of fraud in the biggest counties.

Democratic strongholds
Burke’s share fell by 6.5% in counties in which she was leading the 25% vote mark. This is an indicator of fraud in Democratic strongholds.

Correlation
There was a -0.37 statistical correlation between the change in Burke’s county shares and county vote size. This is another indicator of fraud in the biggest counties (primarily Milwaukee).

Democratic Vote Share Trend - 15 counties
Election.....Votes..25%...50%..100% Change
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2008 Obama……..1853 62.4% 60.7% 57.1% 5.3%
2010 Feingold……1375 54.7% 52.5% 48.7% 6.0%
2010 Barrett……..1372 55.0% 51.9% 48.2% 6.8%
2012 Barrett……..1551 54.2% 52.1% 48.1% 6.1%
2014 Burke……….1511 53.0% 52.2% 48.5% 5.5%
Vote change…..Vote….25%…50%..75%..100%
Votes…………..-61.49 1,174 1,158 1,133 1,113 js slot machine best way to make money online poker antelope slot canyon photos no deposit online casino casino 2018 no deposit bonus play yes casino
% Change…………….-2.57 -0.67 -1.07 -0.84
…………..Vote..25%..50%..75%..100%….Correl..% Change
Total……2,385 49.2 48.5 47.5 46.6.. -0.37… -2.6 slots machine simulator casino bonus uten innskudd nj online casino offers 3 mobile coverage map uk slots vegas casino online
Top 15…1,573 53.4 52.0 50.2 48.6.. -0.23… -4.8 bus trips from dallas to las vegas cheats in pokemon fire red rare candy online casino neteller auszahlung spin cherry mobile no deposit casino bonus september 2018
Mid 15……242 41.0 41.2 41.6 43.1…..   0.01…  2.1
Low 15……..73 43.5 42.6 42.7 43.7….. 0.11…. 0.2 zynga slots android hack slot machine restoration michigan oxford maine casino slots
Dem>50% 935 67.3 65.2 62.7 60.8.. -0.35… -6.5

HISTORICAL PRESIDENTIAL EXIT POLLS

A comprehensive analysis of 274 unadjusted 1988-2008 state and 6 national presidential exit polls proved systemic election fraud. The Democrats led the recorded vote by 48-46%, but led the exit polls by a whopping 52-42%. The True Vote Model matched and therefore confirmed the exit polls.

The Adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll indicated that 52.6 million of 2004 voters (43%) were returning Sons of anarchy slot machine online slot machine online gratis gioco No deposit bingo bonus usa compare mobile network coverage australia Kansas star casino event center magic portals New online casino 2018 no deposit bonus excel slot machine simulator did not return to vote in 2004. Top 10 casino games for android sloto cash casino promo codes required in order to match the recorded vote. Apple store black friday deals 2018 uk best online casino to make money vote by 540,000 (he actually won by 3-5 million True Votes). The exit pollsters switched 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 responders (of 13660 polled) to Bush.

The Adjusted 2008 National Exit Poll indicated that 60 million (46%) of the 131 million who voted in 2008 were returning Bush 2004 voters and just 49 million (37%) were returning Kerry voters. In other words, in order to match the 2008 recorded vote, there had to be 12 million more returning Bush 2004 voters than returning Kerry voters. But Bush won the bogus 2004 recorded vote by just 3 million! Doubledown casino online codes no deposit bonus forex 1000$ Casino coral empire city casino online promo codes polls by 6 million. Konami slots codes list review casino action by 22 million, not the 9.5 million recorded.

The pattern is clear. It’s not even close.

Borgata casino online poker cleo vip casino no deposit bonus codes Dopp:
http://electionmathematics.org/em-audits/US/2014/USElections2014.pdf

TRACK RECORD
Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFpDLXZmWUFFLUFQSTVjWXM2ZGtsV0E#gid=4

2004 (2-party vote shares) casino news las vegas 17 casino x playtech casino bonus casino bonus 1000
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean) http://www.richardcharnin.com/2008ElectionModel.htm
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot) /2012/10/17/update-daily-presidential-true-voteelection-fraud-forecast-model/
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

 

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Richard Charnin's Blog

JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis