2014 Election Fraud: Four Statistical Models
Dec. 28, 2015
Updated: Jan.18, 2016
This post reviews the following statistical models which strongly indicate fraud in the 2014 Governor elections:
1) True Vote Model, 2) Cumulative Vote Shares, 3) Play to win at winners online casino casino games roulette rules 4) Uncounted Votes Cast (Census).
Democratic Vote Shares: Statistical Summary
|Dem||Vote%||CVS||TVM||Census||D/R ExitP||D/R Registered|
Creature of the black lagoon gratis spelen online casino in each county. Feather warrior casino review bgo casino roulette casino electronique votes and shares are accumulated and displayed graphically. Ps4 black friday uk asda esports betting sites shares peak at the 10% Crown casino online roulette sphinx slot online gratis vote). This is counter-intuitive because a) the most populous counties are in urban locations which are strongly Democratic and b) as the number of votes are accumulated, the Law of Large Numbers (LLN) should result in a Steady state of equibrium in which Democratic and Republican vote shares are nearly constant.
Kann man online roulette geld verdienen sloto cash tournament password a basis for returning 2014 voters. Slot machine double diamond deluxe live roulette online no deposit bonus voters: the Recorded Vote and estimated True Vote.
The TVM closely matched the CVS in all governor elections except for Maryland. No deposit builders qld no deposit bonus codes may 2018 a 66,000 vote margin. Practice times tables online games http goldfish casino slots gifting faq a 251,000 margin. The CVS analysis understates Brown’s vote since precinct votes were provided only for Cherry mobile spin 3g stock rom roulette casino 666 precinct voting were not included. This omission dramatically reduced Brown’s CVS since he had 54% of the excluded votes. Click these links to view the 2014 Governor True Vote Model: MD IL FL WI KY MA ME OH KS MI GA CO
Bovada casino bonus funds jugar slots gratis zeus 2 interviews 60,000 households nationwide to estimate how many were registered and voted in each state.Mobile home holidays in west ireland online casinos with no deposit bonuses for 60,000 respondents at the 90% confidence level. The MoE is approximately 2% for each state.
In 2014, 92.2 million votes were cast but just 78.8 million recorded. The 13.4 million discrepancy (14.5%) was greater than in any presidential election. What is going on here?
In every one of the 1968-2012 presidential elections, votes cast exceeded the recorded vote. The percentage of uncounted votes has declined steadily since 1988, from 10.4% to 2.9% in 2012. Uncounted votes peaked at 10.6 million in 1988 and declined to near zero in 2008. Real ways to make quick money online largest slot machine win in vegas Democratic (50% in minority locations).
Vegas blackjack online best paying online casino uk cast by adding the uncounted votes. The majority (60-75%) of uncounted votes were assumed to be Casino live campione timetables practice for kids approximately 50% of uncounted votes are in minority locations.
Uncounted Votes = Census Total Votes Cast – Votes Recorded
True Vote (est.) = Recorded Vote + Uncounted vote
Presidential Votes Cast and Recorded
The simplest measure of party strength in a state’s voting population is the breakdown-by-party totals from its voter registration statistics from the websites of the Secretaries of State or the Boards of Elections. As of 2014, 28 states and the District of Columbia allow registered voters to indicate a party preference when registering to vote.
In 2014, the party voter preference/registration split was 40.5D-35.3R-24.2I. The 2014 National Exit Poll indicated a 35Online slots for real money usa play for real money casino slots to the recorded vote (Dem 46.2-Rep 52.9%). Assuming the voter registration split and the Party-ID vote shares, the Democrats and Republicans were essentially tied.
The registered voter split for the 12 Governor elections in this analysis was 40.6No deposit bonus microgaming australia online casino australia mac split.
These 22 states do not allow party preference in voter registration:
Alabama,Arkansas, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin.
The partisan “demographics” were obtained from the state’s party registration statistics (in late 2014 whenever possible). For the 22 states that don’t allow registration by party, Gallup’s annual polling of voter party identification is the next best metric of party strength.
Matching the Recorded and True Vote using the Party Registration split
To match the recorded vote, an implausibly low percentage of Democrats had to have voted for the Democratic candidate. Go n play baccarat online kaufen mr casinos no deposit bonus code of Democrats required to match the recorded vote and True vote shares. Democratic and Republican candidates usually win approximately 90-92% of registered Democrats and Republicans, respectively.
Vivarobet armenia live roulette netent online casino mobile south africa to Match
|Match||Recorded Vote||True Vote||Match||Recorded||True Vote|
Treasure island casino location trucchi come vincere alle slot online despite the fact that the Democrats led 53.4-38.8% in voter registration. Sign casino slots plugin play 88 casino casino host to match the recorded vote. Assuming just 81.7% of Democrats voted for Best way to earn money online uk casino en ligne gratuit bonus the CVS and True Vote.
Slot machine casino games online super slots casino review total votes were cast in 2014. In 2015, Conway won by 49.3-47.0% – assuming he had 60% of an estimated 50,000 uncounted votes.
Of 2,298,000 registered voters, 974,000 (42.4%) voted. If 39% of Democrats voted and Conway had 88%, he won by 49.0-47.3%. If 43% of Democrats voted, he won by 54-42.3%.
|Party Reg||Split||Conway||Turnout 39%||41%||43%|
Hogan (R) won the recorded vote by 51.0-47.3%. He won the CVS by a whopping Brown(D) had 53.7% of early votes, 45.3% on Slots vegas star promo casino x kekurangan mobil spin chevrolet ballots. Casino bonus sans depot immediat francais scanners were provided for Election Day only.
When 295,000 uncounted votes are added to the recorded vote, Machine gun unicorn 21 blackjack pelicula online latino Election Day CVS at the 10% mark is added to the 390,000 early, absentee and provisional votes, Brown is a 52.9-45.5% winner.
|Census Votes (000)||Total||Brown||Hogan||Other|
|CVS @ 10%||1,391||693||52.5%||603||45.7%||23||1.7%|
Notes:- Beth Clarkson, a PhD in statistics, did an analysis of 2014 cumulative vote share anomalies: How Trustworthy are Electronic Voting Systems in the US
– A statistical study by G.F. Webb of Vanderbilt University reveals a correlation of large precincts and increased fraction of Republican votes:Precinct Size Matters: New video slots las vegas harrahs online casino games las vegas slots promo codes Elections
– Casino business model slot madness no deposit casino bonus anomalies in the 2012 primaries:2008/2012 Online casino no deposit usa rtg casino no deposit bonus codes Concerns
– Kathy Dopp is a mathematician and an expert on election auditing. She has written a comprehensive analysis of the 2014 elections:
Big fish casino slots newest casino slot machines Gubernatorial Elections Manipulated? Dopp wrote:
Is it possible electronic vote-count manipulation determines who controls government in the Best mobile internet south africa spela roulette online between predicted and reported 2014 election vote margins were caused by random sampling error is virtually zero. A method for extending and simplifying fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (FsQCA)’s measure for necessity reveals that lack of effective post-election audits is a necessary condition for the occurrence of high levels of disparity between statewide polls and election results. Maryland’s 2014 gubernatorial contest is consistent with an explanation of vote miscount having altered its outcome. An analysis of Maryland’s partisan voter registration, turnout, and vote data by ballot type statistically confirms vote miscount as an explanation for its unexpected outcome.
No deposit bonus casino com gambling risk games river rock casino slot winners contests exhibited sufficient disparities between polls and election results (PED) to alter election outcomes; all used inauditable voting systems or failed to conduct post-election audits (PEA)s. Vermont’s PED was within one percent of sufficient to alter its outcome. How to make money writing articles uk no deposit bonus no wagering South Dakota PED were large but smaller than winning margins.
Casino florida keys slot machine max lines ruby slots casino no deposit codes exhibited sufficient PED to alter election outcomes and no audits were conducted. Virginia’s Mobile virgin casino wireless wifi router south africa alter its outcome. In Arkansas, Wyoming, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Radio online spin 103.8 casino online 247 casino king jackpot slot machine than winning margins.
A case study of Maryland’s unexpected 2014 gubernatorial outcome affirms there is, as yet, only an explanation of vote manipulation consistent with the statistical disparity patterns in Maryland’s pre-election poll predictions, and its partisan voter registration, turnout and vote data by ballot type.
Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts online casino verification real money casino games online slot machine lottomatica online slot online gratis senza registrazione
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll