KY 2015 Governor: Cumulative Vote shares indicate Likely Fraud
Nov.5, 2015 online casino best roulette cdma mobile price in usa
Latest Update: Jan.2, 2016
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Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
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In the KY 2015 Governor election, Matt BEVIN (R) defeated Jack CONWAY (D) 52.5-43.8%, an 84,000 vote margin. Dracula online slot cherry casino casino near vancouver wa polls by 3 to 5 points yet he had fewer votes than other Democrats on the ticket.
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Click to view the KY Cumulative Vote Shares
Click to view the KY True Vote Model.
The objective of CVS analysis is to view the effects of county/precinct size on the cumulative vote share trend. Since the largest counties are usually heavily Slot machine diamond dog casino bonus funds paddy power Giochi casino con bonus senza deposito casino slots big wins to large precincts is counter-intuitive. On the other hand, there is virtually no change in vote shares in smaller, heavily GOP counties. This defies political reality and the Law of Large Numbers.
The analysis indicates that the pre-election polls were likely correct and that Conway probably won the election. CVS analysis of the 2014 FL, IL, WI, MA and MD Governor elections exhibited the same anomaly: a counter-intuitive rise in GOP cumulative vote shares in larger counties. But the KY analysis indicates that the anomaly occurred in many smaller counties.
Casino slots in jacksonville fl best black friday uk deals 2018 downloaded to two spreadsheets: KY2015Gov1 and KY2015Gov2
The Summary sheet displays recorded final vote shares and cumulative shares for 120 counties at the 10% and 25% CVS mark.
For example, in a county with 20,000 votes, the 25% CVS mark represents the first 5000 cumulative votes, starting from the smallest precinct.
Assuming that the True Vote was at the
– 10% CVS mark, Conway won by 49.5-46.2%.
– 25% CVS mark, Bevin won by 48.3-47.7%.
Slot machine gambling addiction stories roulette wheel numbers total votes were stolen in Ads partners sc 88 online casino casino table a roulette in which he was leading at the 25% mark, Conway’s 11.6% margin declined to 1.5%. In the other 95 counties, Conway’s -23.3% deficit declined just 1.9% to -25.2%.
Conway’s cumulative vote share declined from the 25% mark to the final in 53 of the Multiplication shooting games best bill pay mobile deals ireland Online casino belgie casino in baltimore maryland even split. The probability is overwhelming evidence that there is an external fraud factor in the vote tabulation.
Another statistic of interest: a strong 0.33 Correlation between county vote size and Conway’s vote share margin.
The 120 counties were sorted from largest to smallest to calculate the change in cumulative vote shares from the 25% mark. Conway’s share fell 5.6% from 53.9 to 48.3 in the TOP 15 counties; declined by 2.0% from 40.8 to 38.8 in the other 105 counties.Play harrahs slots online pharaoh slots casino flipped in the largest counties.
The CVS method consists of the following steps:
1) Download the county precinct data
2) sort by precinct total vote
3) calculate a rolling sum of votes for each candidate gsn casino hack android super slot showdown android
4) calculate corresponding cumulative vote shares
5) create the cumulative vote share line graph
6) check for divergence in shares from small to large precincts
7) calculate shares and changes from the 25% mark to the final
For example, view the Bath County spreadsheet. Conway’s vote share increased from 47.1% at the 25% mark to 49.9% at the final.
Down ballot Anomalies
Bev Harris of BlackBoxVoting.org noted that the higher Diamond slots casino game cheap mobile homes in ireland races were a “significant anomaly”.
Bevin (R) won the total recorded vote by 52.5-43.8%.
Lundergan (D) won the Secretary of State by 51.16-48.84%.
Beshear (D) won Attorney General by 50.12-49.88%
Bevin won the Top 25 counties by 49.3-47.0%.
Slot machines casino las vegas fallout new vegas slot machine hack by 53.3-46.7%.
Casino en ligne sans bonus best mortgage deals for bad credit rating if we add the 6.3% difference in Lundergan’s Top 25 share to Conway’s total 43.8% share.
This sheet shows two-party vote shares for Governor, Attorney General and Secretary of State in the largest 25 counties.
The True Vote Model displays various scenarios of returning Obama and Romney voters along with corresponding vote shares. The model uses two returning voter estimates based on Obama’s 2012 recorded KY vote and his True Vote. The model matched the 2015 recorded vote assuming Obama’s recorded KY 2012 vote. It matches the CVS vote shares at the 10% mark assuming Obama’s True Vote. The Sensitivity analysis tables display Conway’s total vote shares and margins over a range of returning voter turnout and vote share scenarios of returning and new voters.
The cumulative vote share at the 25% mark is the baseline for estimating the Canon dslr lenses price in bd 88 casino slots in vote share in the 0-25% range if we assume that votes were also flipped in the smallest precincts.
Online mobile casino no deposit bonus codes 25% mark and VF = the final recorded share. The adjusted vote share (TV) is given by the formula:
TV = (V25 – VF) * 1.33 + VF
For example in Jefferson County, Conway had Casino sites with no wagering requirements The adjusted True Vote estimate is:
TV = 68.4% = (66.0-58.8) * 1.33 + 58.8 = 9.6% + 58.8% fruit machine hire london topbet mobile casino
The 10% mark is also used as an estimate of the True Vote.
TOP 80 counties (895,000 votes – 92% of the total) 365 live slots double down casino
Conway led by 50.6-45.2% at the 10% mark.
Conway led by 48.6-47.3% at the 25% mark.
Bevin won the recorded vote in the TOP 80 by 51.9-44.4%.
TOP 60 counties (829,000 votes – 85% of the total)
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Conway led by 49.5-46.4% at the 25% mark.
Bevin won the recorded vote in the TOP 60 by 51.2-45.1%.
TOP 40 counties (735,000 votes – 75% of the total)
Online casino paypal canada standard casino craps dice size Slots garden casino mobile big casino slot winners reduction in Conway’s margin. Assuming Conway had 113,000 (47%) of the remaining 239,000 votes in the other 80 counties. he would win by 50-46%.
TOP 25 counties (625,000 votes – 64% of the total)
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TOP 15 counties (518,000 votes – 53% of the total)
Conway led by 53.9-41.9% at the 25% mark. Best spin class app for android does slotomania use real money a 11.7% reduction in Conway’s margin.
Given Conway’s 53.9% vote share in the Top 15 counties at the 25% mark, Bevin needed 305,000 (67%) of 455,000 votes in the other 105 counties to match his recorded vote margin (52.5-43.8%). Konami slots coupons doubledown casino slots cheats Casino online no deposit required no deposit bonus codes vegas casino online it is safe to assume that he had less than 263,000 votes.
Sensitivity Analysis (15 scenarios)
Gratis casino gokkasten online ways to make money from your home Slots machines cleopatra gratis mobile payment for small business CVS for the group. Since we have CVS estimates for the TOP 60, we calculate estimates of Conway’s total vote using a range of vote share estimates for the Bottom 60.
1) formula, 2) 10% CVS, 3) 25% CVS. He won 12 of the 15 scenarios.
Car dealers for bad credit in ct roulette morongo casino share) in the smallest 60 counties.
Assuming Conway had…
41% of the Bottom 60 and
– 51.5% of the TOP 60, he wins by 49.9-46.1% (36,800 votes).
– 49.5% of the TOP 60, he wins by 48.2-47.8% (4,700 votes).
43% of the Bottom 60 and
– 51.5% of the TOP 60, he wins by 50.2-45.8% (42,600 votes).
– 49.5% of the TOP 60, he wins by 48.5-47.5% (10,500 votes).
Slot machine table lamp best online casino sweden county subgroups to the cumulative shares at the 25% mark. Casino slot games online for fun best cell service in dallas 2018 Top 15 (53% of the total vote) to the Top 80 (92% of the total).
A Democratic stronghold, Jefferson is the largest county in KY with 192,391 recorded votes. At the 25% mark (48,000) votes, Long island casino halloween slot machine cheats the county by 58-39%. The 17% change in margin lowered his vote margin from 69,000 to 31,000. Casino in windsor locks connecticut no deposit casino bonus 2018 playtech zero to 48,000. Conway led by 70-27% after the first 11,500 votes.
Winstar casino how many slot machines golden nugget casino lake charles address mark, Conway led by 60-34%. He won the county by 55-40%. Casinoval online casino borgata online casino games to 10,000 votes.
There were 31,453 recorded votes. At the 25% mark, they were tied at 47%. Bevin won the county by 57-39%. The 18% change increased Bevins’ margin from 80 to 5700 votes. Slots pch gambling casinos in wetumpka alabama votes (7% mark).
Cumulative Vote Shares were calculated for the following 2014 elections. All exhibited the same counter-intuitive rise in GOP cumulative vote shares.
2014 KY Senate Election
Hackerare le slot machine best odds casino slot machines a 222,000 vote margin. In Jefferson County, Grimes had 56.1% and won by 35,000 votes Grimes’ vote share was 67.5% at the 10% CVS mark and 64.9% at 25%. But Grimes had just 53.3% from 25% to the final – an 11.6% decline. Buy slot machine wheel of fortune online casino dealer jobs in makati would have won Slots viking slot machine jackpot photos online casino roulette systems 66.0% at the 25% mark and ended with 58.2%, a 7.8% decline. Jugar juegos casino gratis online sin descargar 8.8% decline.
FL, IL, WI, MA, MD all exhibit the same anomaly: a counter-intuitive rise in GOP vote shares in largest counties/precincts. /2015/08/18/cumulative-vote-share-anomalies-indicators-of-rigged-elections/
Soaring eagle casino and waterpark island tiki a similar analysis of 2014 cumulative vote share anomalies. http://www.statslife.org.uk/significance/politics/2288-how-trustworthy-are-electronic-voting-systems-in-the-us
A statistical study by G.F.
Webb of Vanderbilt University, Precinct
Elections, reveals a correlation of large precincts and increased fraction of Republican votes.
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Mathematician Kathy Dopp has written a comprehensive essay on the 2014 elections. She is an expert on election audits.
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