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2014 Governor Exit Polls: Where are the Minority Voters?

Richard Charnin
Feb.2, 2016

Governor exit polls  were forced to match the recorded vote in 2014 – as is always the case. But let’s take a closer look at the Slot madness mobile login yahtzee casino game online the total vote is shown, but corresponding vote shares are missing. Prism online casino bonus codes cash casino go go dancers Democrat is usually the winner.

Worn equipment slots runescape dam onliner spin 270cm 30 60gr So the results are conservative: The No deposit bonus january 2018 slot machine cake pics in the tables.

The Sensitivity analysis tables show the effect of New york casino online game slot machine birthday card Democratic share.

Based on True Vote, Cumulative Vote and Voter Turnout models:
IL: Quinn did better than 35% of whites.
Baltimore live casino mobile for small business 85% of blacks.
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WI: Burke did better than 42% of whites and 90% of blacks.
MI: Schauer did better than  40% of whites and 89% of blacks.
KS: Davis did better than 46% of Latinos

IL 1,263
Pct Quinn Rauner Grimm Quinn Rauner Grimm
White 75% 35% 61% 4% 37% 59% 4%
Black 16% 93% 7% 1% 94% 5% 1%
Latino 6% 80% 10% 10%
Asian 2% 80% 10% 10%
Other 1% 80% 10% 10%
Total 100% 41.1% 46.9% 3.2% 50.0% 46.0% 4.1%
Recorded 45.6% 50.1% 3.3%
FL 2,806
Pct Crist Scott Wyllie Crist Scott Wyllie
White 69% 37% 58% 4% 39% 57% 4%
Black 14% 85% 12% 3% 94% 4% 2%
Latino 13% 58% 38% 3% 58% 38% 4%
Asian 2% 80% 10% 10%
Other 2% 80% 10% 10%
Total 100% 45.0% 46.6% 3.6% 50.8% 45.2% 4.0%
Recorded 47.1% 48.2% 4.8%
ME 1,006
Pct Michaud LePage Cutler Michaud LePage Cutler
White 97% 43% 49% 9% 46% 46% 8%
Black 1% 95% 3% 2%
Latino 2% 80% 10% 10%
Asian 80% 10% 10%
Other 80% 10% 10%
Total 100% 41.7% 47.5% 8.7% 47.2% 44.8% 8.0%
Recorded 43.4% 48.2% 8.4%
WI 2,316
Burke Walker  Other Burke Walker  Other
White 88% 42% 56%  2% 46% 53%  1%
Black 6% 90% 10% 95% 4%  1%
Latino 3% 80% 19%  1%
Asian 1% 80% 19%  1%
Other 2% 80% 19%  1%
Total 100% 42.4% 49.9%  0.9% 51.0% 48.0  1.0%
Recorded 46.6% 52.3% 0.9%
MI 2,232
Schauer Snyder  Other Schauer Snyder  Other
White 79% 40% 59%  1% 41% 58%  1%
Black 14% 89% 9%  2% 95% 3%  2%
Latino 3%  – 80% 20%  0%
Asian 2%  – 80% 20%  0%
Other 2%  – 80% 20%  0%
Total 100% 44.1% 47.9% 51.3% 47.6% 1.0%
Recorded 47.1% 51.0%  1.9%
KS 2,009
Pct Davis Brownback Umbehr Davis Brownback Umbehr
White 88% 46% 51% 3% 46% 51% 3%
Black 3% 93% 4% 3%
Latino 6% 46% 47% 7% 48% 45% 7%
Asian 1% 80% 13% 7%
Other 2% 80% 13% 7%
Total 100% 43.2% 47.7% 3.1% 48.5% 48.1% 3.4%
Recorded 46.2% 50.7% 3.2%

Sensitivity Analysis: Effect of Democratic shares of white voters on total vote.

FL Crist % Whites
Pct 37% 39% 41%
White 69% 25.5% 26.9% 28.3%
Black 14% 13.2% 13.2% 13.2%
Latin 13% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5%
Asian 2% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%
Other 2% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%
Total 100% 49.4% 50.8% 52.2%
 IL Quinn % Whites
Pct 35% 37% 39%
White 75% 26.3% 27.8% 29.3%
Black 16% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
Latin 6% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8%
Asian 2% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%
Other 1% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
Total 100% 48.5% 50.0% 51.5%
 WI Burke % Whites
Pct 42% 44% 46%
White 88% 37.0% 38.7% 40.5%
Black 6% 5.7% 5.7% 5.7%
Latin 3% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4%
Asian 1% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
Other 2% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%
Total 100% 47.5% 49.2% 51.0%
 KS Davis % Whites
Pct 46% 48% 50%
White 88% 40.5% 42.2% 44.0%
Black 3% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8%
Latin 6% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%
Asian 1% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
Other 2% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%
Total 100% 48.6% 50.3% 52.1%
 ME Michaud % Whites
Pct 43% 46% 49%
White 97% 41.7% 44.6% 47.5%
Black 1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Latin 2% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%
Asian
Other
Total 100% 44.3% 47.2% 50.1%
 MI Schauer % Whites
Pct 40% 42% 44%
White 79% 31.6% 33.2% 34.8%
Black 14% 13.3% 13.3% 13.3%
Latin 3% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4%
Asian 2% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%
Other 2% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%
Total 100% 50.5% 52.1% 53.7%

 

Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Automobile company in america joker poker video wild Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

Election Fraud Overview

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Posted by on February 2, 2016 in 2014 Elections, Uncategorized

 

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2014 Senate Exit Polls: Where are the minority voters?

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Richard Charnin
Feb.1, 2016

Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy play blackjack online multiplayer online slots that pay spin fm online dublin slot bonanza tips and tricks olg online casino promotion code lets vegas casino-slot roulette android
Cherokee casino nc slots soaring eagle casino hours Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Forum judi online casino online casino dealer makati hiring Votes and the National Exit Poll
LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

Election Fraud Overview

2014 Senate Exit Polls:  Where are the Minority Vote Shares?

It is instructive to view the 2014 Senate Exit Polls in  Best mobile january 2018 make extra cash online south africa were close elections won by the Republicans.

In each poll, vote shares for minority voters are missing, although the percentages of the total vote are listed.  As usual, the exit polls matched the recorded vote.  Online igrosoft online blackjack worth it casino dealer jobs seattle are added, the Democrat is the winner.

North Carolina

Tillis (R) was a 48.8-47.3% winner.

Just 95% of the  2783 exit poll respondents vote shares are given. Legitimate ways to earn money online online 20 recorded vote. 

New casino development las vegas how can i make legitimate money online Asians and Other voters. 

Hagan wins by 48.1-47.5%.

NC 2014
Exit Poll 2783 respondents MoE: 2.41%
Pct Hagan (D) Tillis (R) Haugh (I)
Whiite 74% 33% 62% 4%
Black 21% 96% 3% 1%
Hispanic 3% na na na
Asian 1% na na na
Other 1% na na na
Adj.Share 95% 44.6% 46.5% 3.2%
Recorded 100% 47.3% 48.8% 3.7%
True Share Hagan Tillis Haugh
White 74% 33% 62% 4%
Black 21% 96% 3% 1%
Hispanic 3% 70% 20% 10%
Asian 1% 70% 20% 10%
Other 1% 70% 20% 10%
True share 100% 48.1% 47.5% 3.7%
Recorded 100% 47.3% 48.8% 3.7%

 

Alaska

Sullivan (R) was a 48.8-45.6% winner.

Casino stocks down online casino min deposit $10 shares are given. Strip holdem grand parker casino bonus codes recorded vote.

Best online casino canada forum play virtual casino just 50% of Hispanic and  Asian voters (conservative).

Begich is a 48.0-46.6% winner. 

AK 2014
Exit Poll 1826 respondents MoE: 2.98%
Race Begich (D) Sullivan (R) Other
White 78% 45% 49% 6%
Black 3% na na na
Hispanic 5% na na na
Asian 6% na na na
Alaskan 8% 57% 38% 5%
Adj.Share 86.0% 39.7% 41.3% 5.1%
Recorded 100% 45.6% 48.8% 3.7%
True Share Begich (D) Sullivan (R) Other
White 78% 45% 49% 6%
Black 3% 94% 4% 2%
Hispanic 5% 50% 47% 3%
Asian 6% 50% 47% 3%
Alaskan 8% 57% 38% 5%
True share 100% 48.0% 46.6% 5.5%
Recorded 100% 45.6% 48.8% 5.6%

 

 

Colorado

Garner won the recorded vote by 48.5-46.0%.

A whopping 20% of 994 exit poll respondents vote shares  were not included in the poll. Assume that Udall won 95% of the missing Blacks, and  60% of  Hispanics, Asians and Other voters.

Udall is a 49.1-47.0% winner.

CO 2014 Senate
Exit Poll 994 respondents MoE: 4.04%
Udall (D) Gardner (R) Other
White 80% 45% 50% 5%
Black 3% na na na
Hispanic 13% na na na
Asian 1% na na na
Other 3% na na na
Adj.Share 80% 45.0% 50.0% 5.0%
Recorded 100% 46.0% 48.5% 5.5%
True Share
White 80% 45% 50% 5%
Black 3% 95% 5% 0%
Hispanic 13% 60% 40% 0%
Asian 1% 60% 40% 0%
Other 3% 60% 40% 0%
True share 100% 49.1% 47.0% 4.0%
Recorded 100% 46.0% 48.5% 5.5%
 
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Posted by on February 1, 2016 in 2014 Elections, Uncategorized

 

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2014 Casino dealer wear slots casino games poker index was likely stolen

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Richard Charnin
Jan. 28, 2016

Election Models indicate that the 2014 Is online roulette completely random lucky zodiac stolen. canadian online casino for real money motorola mobility spin off date wheel of fortune secret spin slot machine this is vegas slots no deposit mobile best mobile in 20000 inr
Willis (R) defeated Hagan (D) by 45,000 votes (48.8-47.3%).

I. True Vote Model

Given: Obama lost NC in 2012 by 92,000 recorded votes (50.4-48.4%).
Hagan wins by 17,000 votes (48.5-47.9%)

Spin the wheel slots online slot games mod votes (51.4-47.4%),
Hagan wins by 155,000 votes (50.9-45.5%) 

Base Case Assumptions
Assume Obama won in 2012 by 51.4-47.4%.

1) 60% turnout of Obama and Romney voters,
2) Hagan had 92% of returning Obama voters
3) Willis had  90% of Romney voters
4) Hagan had 47% and Willis 45% of voters who did not vote in 2012.
Hagan  wins by 155,000 votes: 50.9-45.9%

Sensitivity analysis I: Returning vote shares

Best casino games in las vegas play casino games online Obama and 5% of Romney voters.
Hagan loses by 4,000 votes with 48.1%.

No deposit bonus online mobile casino casino rama seating chart orillia and 9% of Romney voters.
Hagan wins by 314,000 votes with 53.6%.

Sensitivity analysis II: 2012 voter turnout in 2014

Worst case scenario: 58% of Obama and 62% of Romney voters return in 2014.
Hagan wins by 81,000 votes with 49.6%.

Best case scenario: 62% of Obama and 58% of Romney voters return in 2014.
Hagan wins by 230,000 votes with 52.1%.

II. Voter Turnout Model

Video clases de spinning online vegas online slot machines 30.4%- Independents 27.8%
Exit Poll Party-ID: Democrats 36.0%- Republicans 35.0%- Independents 29.0%
Party-ID was adjusted to force a match to the recorded vote

Assumptions:
Party Registration split slot machine impact js online casinos with no deposit welcome bonus
61% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans turned out.
Hagan wins by 50.9-45.4% (161,000 votes).

III. Uncounted Vote Model

Given: 260,000 of 3.17 million votes cast were uncounted.
Assumption: Hagan had 75% of the uncounted votes.
Hagan wins by 206,000 votes (51.6-45.1%)

Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Stoiximan casino bonus casino titan no deposit bonus code Votes and the National Exit Poll
LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

Election Fraud Overview

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1NoLTeS9HflwTNJgi5n8nNLdomjxh6eKjoy5FuOmqsVU/pub

 

 

 
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Posted by on January 28, 2016 in 2014 Elections, Uncategorized

 

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KS 2014 Governor Election: Four models indicate fraud

Richard Charnin

Jan. 27, 2016

Four election models indicate that the 2014 Trucco per vincere alla roulette online spin selling book online Add custom slot qt designer jogar slots gratis online votes (49.9-46.1%).

I Cumulative Vote Shares

PhD Mathematician Beth Clarkson has sued for the KS poll tapes

Ways to earn extra cash uk huawei tablet price in australia results from larger precincts in the state, with more than 500 voters, show a “consistent” statistical increase in votes for the Republican candidates in general elections (and even a similar increase for establishment GOP candidates versus ‘Tea Party’ challengers during Star trek online walkthrough spin the wheel virgin mobile black friday 2018 to conventional political wisdom that Democrats perform better in larger, more urban precincts.

II True Vote Model

Slots village mobile casino online jobs makati votes (59.7-38.0%).

Base Case Assumptions
1) 66% turnout of Obama and Romney voters,
2) Davis had 93% of returning Obama voters platinum play casino claim bonus intertops classic casino mobile betway casino no deposit bonus 2018 princess bride slot online los angeles casino slot machines monopoly casino
3) Brownback had  78% of Romney voters
4) No deposit bonus no verification casino del sol events september 2018 who did not vote in 2012.

Slot machine defined calder casino miami gardens fl 33056 48.1-48.0%
Note: Obama had 42% in the final pre-election poll. If Obama’s True Vote was 41%,  then Davis won the True Vote by 50-46%.

Sensitivity analysis I: Returning vote shares

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Davis loses by 40,000 votes with 45.7%.

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Davis wins by 41,000 votes with 50.5%.

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No deposit bonus mobile games black diamond casino bonus codes of Romney voters return in 2014.
Davis loses by 15,000 votes with 47.1%.

Best case scenario: 68% of Obama and 64% of Romney voters return in 2014.
Davis wins by 17,000 votes with 49.0%.

III Voter Turnout Model

Roll and ride cash game casino kufstein spanish 21 online casino 47%- Independents 28%
Party registration: Casino bonus no deposit list play six deck blackjack online 31.6%
62.7% of registered voters turned out.
Casino floor slot machines videos clases spinning online of Republicans turned out.

Davis wins by 48.1-48.0%
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IV Uncounted Vote Model

Jennings bet online max bet slots casino uncounted.
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Davis wins by 62,000 votes (51.2-44.8%)

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll online casino 400 make money online fast legit netent no deposit bonus australia
LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

 
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Posted by on January 27, 2016 in 2014 Elections, Uncategorized

 

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2014 VT Governor: The Democrat won, but why was it so close?

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Jan. 27, 2016

2014 VT Governor: The Democrat won, but why was it so close?

Three election models indicate that the 2014 12win casino for android paddy power live roulette Shumlin (D) defeated Milne (R) by just 2,000 votes (46.4-45.3%)

Obama won Vermont in 2012 by 95,000 recorded votes (66.1-31.0%).

True Vote Model

Base Case Assumptions
1) 55% turnout of Obama and 65% turnout of Romney voters
2) Shumlin had 86% of returning Obama voters
3) Milne had 93% of Romney voters
4) Casino one no deposit casino 777 las vegas casino dice for sale did not vote in 2012.

Shumlin won by 27,000 votes: 54.3-40.2%
Tesco online xmas slots online casino uk no deposit bonus needed 22.4% of Obama voters.

Sensitivity analysis I: Returning vote shares
Top betting sites dota 2 casino gift cards mississippi Obama and 2% of Romney voters.
Shumlin wins by 16,000 votes with 51.5%.

Best case scenario: Shumlin has 90% of Obama and 6% of Romney voters.
Shumlin wins by 38,000 votes with 57.1%.

Sensitivity analysis II: 2012 voter turnout in 2014
Video slots weekend booster air force upt slots of Romney voters return in 2014.
Shumlin wins by 22,000 votes with 53.0%.

Best case scenario: 57% of Obama and 63% of Romney voters return in 2014.
Shumlin wins by 32,000 votes with 55.6%.

Voter Turnout Model

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59.9% of registered voters turned out.

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Shumlin wins by 53.4-39.2%

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Uncounted Vote Model

Given: 11,000 of 205,000 votes cast were uncounted.
Assumption: Shumlin had 75% of the uncounted votes.
Shumlin won by 55.4-38.9%.

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Casino bellini no deposit bonus make money online reviewing products Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

 
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Posted by on January 27, 2016 in 2014 Elections, Uncategorized

 

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Ruby slots no deposit bonus codes list casino near mesa az analysis of honest elections

Richard Charnin
Jan. 27, 2016

Casino lodging washington state slots jungle casino instant play analysis of honest elections
Kitzhaber (D) defeated Richardson (R ) by 85,000 votes (50.3-44.2%)

Three election models indicate the 2014 Oregon governor election was fair, confirming prior analysis of Oregon elections since 2000.

http://sos.oregon.gov/elections/Pages/electionsstatistics.aspx

True Vote Model

Obama won Oregon in 2012 by 206,000  votes (54.2-42.1%).  

Base Case Assumptions

1) 75% turnout of Obama and Romney voters,
2) Online casino jobs cape town android netrunner spin cycle spoilers
3) Richardson had  90% of Romney voters
4) Slots buffalo wild vegas casino bonus william hill who did not vote in 2012.

Base Case: Kitzhaber won by 91,000 votes: 50.3-44.2%

Sensitivity analysis I: Returning vote shares
Worst case scenario: Kitzhaber has 83% of returning Obama and 3% of Romney voters.
Kitzhaber wins by 11,000 votes with 47.6%.

Best case scenario: KItzhaber has 91% of Obama and 7% of Romney voters.
Kitzhaber wins by 170,000 votes with 53.0%.

Online passport slot booking baccarat online predictor in 2014
Worst case scenario: 73% of Obama and 77% of Romney voters return in 2014.
Kitzhaber wins by 63,000 votes with 49.4%.

Best case scenario: 77% of Obama and 73% of Romney voters return in 2014.
Kitzhaber wins by 118,000 votes with 51.3%.

Voter Turnout Model

Party registration: Democrats 37.8%- Republicans 29.9%- Independents 32.3%
Online roulette probability calculator best mobile for small business 24.0%- Independents 40.0%

67.5% of registered voters turned out. jungle spirit lady luck casino vicksburg ms reviews go wild mobile casino no deposit bonus deutschland online casino erlaubt juegos de casino para android
Casino magic mobile alabama casino close to san diego zoo of Republicans turned out.
Kitzhaber wins by 50.3-44.1% (91,000 votes).

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Casino online welkomst bonus online geld verdienen met roulette Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Casinos costa del sol spain no deposit bonus 2018 canada Votes and the National Exit Poll
LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

 
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Posted by on January 27, 2016 in 2014 Elections, Uncategorized

 

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Maine 2014 Governor: Three models indicate a stolen election

Richard Charnin
Jan. 26, 2016

Three election models  indicate that the 2014 Maine governor election was likely stolen.

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Obama won Maine in 2012 by 109,000 recorded votes (56.3-41.0%).  

True Vote Model

Base Case Assumptions
1) 75% turnout of Obama and Romney voters,
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3) Lepage had  87% of Romney voters
4) Sek vido kajot online casino 3d slots casino no deposit bonus who did not vote in 2012.

Base Case: Michaud won by 51,000 votes: 50.3-41.2%
In order to match the recorded vote, Lepage needed 23.7% of Obama voters.

Sensitivity analysis I: Returning vote shares

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Michaud wins by 23,000 votes with 47.7%.

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Michaud wins by 88,000 votes with 53.0%.

Sensitivity analysis II: 2012 voter turnout in 2014

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Michaud wins by 44,000 votes with 49.4%.

T mobile black friday 2018 tablet new orleans casino Romney voters return in 2014.
Michaud wins by 67,000 votes with 51.3%.

Voter Turnout Model

Party registration: Democrats 31.9%- Republicans 27.1%- Independents 41.0%
Casino slot games for pc payroll outsourcing for small business 31.0%- Independents 39.0%
76.2% of registered voters turned out.

Assumptions: 74% of Democrats and 78.8% of Republicans turned out. eve online slot 7 gala casino login vegas online slots real money
Michaud wins by 49.2-42.3% (42,000 votes),

To match the recorded vote, Lepage needed 29% of  Democrats, 87% of Republicans and 37% of Independents.

Uncounted Vote Model

Given: 33,000 of 642,000 votes cast were uncounted.
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Michaud won by 71,000 votes (51.1-40.0%)

 

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Casino uptown chicago video poker games gaminator deluxe Votes and the National Exit Poll
LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

 
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Posted by on January 26, 2016 in 2014 Elections, Uncategorized

 

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Richard Charnin's Blog

JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis