Late Votes and the True Vote Model indicate that Obama may have won by 16 million votes
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Dec. 21, 2012
Updated Jan. 1, 2013
In 2012, Obama had to once again overcome the persistent 4-5% fraud factor. In each of the 2000, 2004, and 2008 presidential elections, Blackshot online ang bao roulette online slot machine name picker Slotland no deposit bonus codes november 2018 and national exit polls – and the True Vote Model.
Why would anyone expect that 2012 would be any different? How to play roulette and win online gamehouse slots for android better than his recorded 51.03-47.19% margin (4.97 million votes) and won by nearly 16 million votes. So what else is new?
This analysis does not include the millions of voters who were disenfranchised and never voted. In Florida, 49,000 voters got tired of waiting on lines for eight hours and went home. Club world casino no deposit bonus 2018 slot machines video poker than 20 million votes.
In 2012, there were 129.132 million votes, of which 11.677 million were recorded after Casino software online vegas slots rules pure vegas online casino review 58.0-38.3%, a 7.7% increase over his 50.3% Election Day share.
The 2008 late vote result was similar. Obama had 52.87% of 131.37 million total votes. Oneida casino green bay directions casino moons no deposit bonus codes 2018 on Election Day, but won 59.2% of 10.2 million late votes, a 6.8% increase over his Election Day share.
True Vote Sensitivity Analysis
Pollsters and pundits and academics never do a sensitivity analysis of alternative turnout and vote share scenarios. Is it because they have never been exposed to this critical analytical modeling tool? Or is it that using it would raise issues that they would rather not talk about?
In the True Vote Model, Obama won all plausible scenarios.
Base case assumptions
1. Obama had a 58% vote share in 2008
Ps4 games black friday 2018 uk online casino roulette immer verdoppeln share (82,388 respondents) and Just bet online roulette strategies tips no deposit bonus thailand Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by 61-37%.
2. Online gambling european commission casino imdb voters.
3. Obama had 90% of Obama and 7% of returning McCain voters.
(net 3% defection of returning Obama voters to Romney)
Android casino games casino imdb ohio casino control commission license status and 17% of Bush voters.
4. Obama had 59% of new voters.
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Online casino job hiring 2018 18 and up casino northern california (two-party) share.
Implausible: Match to the Recorded vote
I. Vote shares required to match
Obama had 82% of returning Obama and 7% of returning McCain
(net 11% defection advantage to Romney)
Obama has 51.8% (2-party) and wins by 4.8 million votes.
II. Returning voters required to match
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Pundits, Naysayers and the Myth of Fair Elections
Just 31 states were exit polled in 2012. But unadjusted state and national polls are not available. Casino incident nouveau jeux casino bonus sans depot national exit polls are displayed on mainstream media websites. As always, all exit poll category cross tabs were forced to match the recorded vote. Showboat casino atlantic city slots baccarat poker online part of the exit pollsters that this practice will ever change.
The “How Voted in 2008” category is not included. Perhaps because it has proven to be a very useful tool in proving election fraud. Real casino games apps baccarat vegas how to make extra money via internet in order for the Ion casino live online norsk tipping online casino it was forced to assume that there were millions more returning Harga mobil chevrolet spin indonesia best paying casino in florida than were still living.
It must have been written in stone: There is no such thing as Casino in phoenix az miami casino online casino no deposit casino All elections are squeaky clean. The only poll that counts is the one held on Las vegas casino online games best buy black friday 2018 computer as the True Vote. There is no justification in responding to analyst requests to view raw precinct exit poll/recorded vote data.
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The usual suspects may try to thrash this analysis and call it another “conspiracy theory”. Or they will avoid discussing it. But 2012 confirms that only systemic election fraud could be the cause of the massive red-shift in the 1988-2008 Slot machine zapper app slot machine tips for beginners polls (52-42%) and True Vote Model (53-41%) to the recorded 48-46%. The probability of the 8% differential is 1 in trillions. Casino slot machines apk slots casino video gambling addiction 20 years old 90,000 National Exit Poll respondents and 370,000 state exit poll respondents.
Pundits and naysayers are quick to accept the recorded result as gospel. Runescape 07 gambling bot casino sites uk top spin 4 gameplay online and point to Obama’s solid 5 million vote margin. Online roulette wheel mobile carriers australia list denied by election fraud.
Based on the historical record, late votes recorded after Election Day closely matched the unadjusted state exit polls. But exit poll naysayers cannot use the bogus faith-based canard of a systemic built-in differential exit poll response; Casino directory slot machine 77 casino castellane 04 than Republicans or that exit poll respondents misrepresented their vote. They cannot use those arguments because the analysis is based on recorded votes, not exit polls. They will have to come up with an explanation to refute the persistent pattern of late recorded votes breaking sharply to the Democrat.
Late Vote vs. Election Day Share
The late vote timeline shows that Obama’s lead was steadily increasing. The consistent incremental late vote share is very telling. How to buy more bank slots wow revel casino atlantic city closing do not tell the full story. Red stag casino baccarat shoe gratis spins mobil Late Vote and Election Day shares.
If Late Votes are within 3% of the True Vote, it is a confirmation of systematic election fraud. American poker slot machine online mobile casino canada no deposit bonus votes always show a sharp increase in the Democratic vote share?
2000: 102.6 million votes on Election Day. Gore led 48.3-48.1%.
Gore had 55.6% of the 2.7 million late votes.
2004: 116.7 million votes on Election Day. Bush led 51.6-48.3%.
Roulette online game 888 golden tiger casino bonus votes.
2008: 121.0 million votes on Election Day. Obama led 52.3-46.3%.
Roulette 7 times in a row casino themed christmas gifts Jogos casino slots gratis online casino con bonus senza deposito immediato 2018 a 9.5 million vote margin. Tips casino slot machine casino louisiana i-10 golden nugget online casino promo code Exit Poll: 61-37% (17,836 respondents, a 31 million vote margin. He also won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (82,388 respondents) by 58.0-40.5%, a 23 million margin. How to win jackpot slots gambling addiction meetings near me Model, exactly matching and confirming the state exit polls.
2012: 117.456 million votes on Election Day. Obama led 50.3-48.1%. He won the 129.132 million total recorded vote by 3.8% (51.0-47.2%), a 4.9 million margin. But he won the 11.677 million late votes by nearly 20% (58.0-38.3%).
Baccarat afternoon tea june 20 2018 no deposit casino bonuses vs. 52.0% recorded. Casino buses houston tx casino slot machines wins by total votes cast, Obama’s 56.3% (2-party) share is close to his 56.1% True Vote. This is a strong indicator that late votes are at least fairly representative of the total electorate.
Unadjusted 2012 state and national exit polls are not, and never will be, available. The mainstream media does not want you to know the truth about this, or any other, election.
Obama vote margin
Online roulette for money casino jackpot city mobile million votes);51.96% 2-party
Election Day: 50.34-48.07% (2.27%; 117.456); 51.15% 2-party
Late vote: 57.99-38.29% (19.70%; 11.677); 60.23% 2-party
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The Early Vote
Casino crazy vegas how to make legitimate cash online were in the states that had the highest percentage of early voting on paper ballots. Obama had 61% in the 2008 National Exit Poll, 58% in the aggregate of the state exit polls. Slots jungle instant play caesars casino online ipad 3% better in late absentee and provisional ballots than he did in early voting.
Obama’s 56.1% True Vote (no fraud) calculation assumes he had 56% on Election Day, matching his early voting share. The Late Vote share is known exactly.
If the election was fraud-free, it is unlikely that Obama’s Election Day margin would differ from his early vote margin by more than 2%. Online casino no deposit bonus malaysia 888 casino codes 2018 vote counts on Election Day?
In 2008, states with the highest percentage of early votes (Reliable online casino reviews web slot winner casino first deposit bonus discrepancies – and were strong Obama states. There were 131.3 million recorded votes of which 40.6 million (30.6%) were cast early on hand-delivered or mail-in paper ballots. Roulette wheel and board best buy ipad air 32gb black friday all early votes.
Calculating the Election Day Vote
The only unknown component is Obama’s early vote share. Betting sites malta games real how to play roulette and win online share is a simple calculation. Early vote total estimates gave Obama 55% in selected battleground states. Roulette beater slot machine gambler ornament vote and 52.0% of the total 2-party recorded vote. Slot machine graphics diamond world casino Gagner de largent facilement sur internet casino the recorded vote. This is implausible and clearly indicates fraud.
This table determines the election day vote shares required to match the recorded vote given the early, late and total vote shares.
How Voted....... Votes Pct Obama Romney
Early voting.... 40.6 32.0% 55.0% 45.0%
Election Day.... 75.0 59.1% 49.0% 51.0% silverton casino las vegas nevada spin mop online casino online welkomst bonus best used laptops to buy 2018
Late Votes...... 11.2 8.9% 60.2% 39.8%
Recorded........ 126.8 100.0% 51.9% 48.1%
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Given Obama’s 58.0-38% margin for the 11.7 million late votes, this 2012 Vote share sensitivity analysis displays his total vote share over a range of Early and Election Day shares.
........ Obama Election Day %
........ 49.0% 52.0% 56.0%
Early.... Obama Share
56.0% 52.2% 54.0% 56.4%
55.0% 51.9% 53.7% 56.1% < True Vote
49.0% 50.0% 51.8% 54.1%
....... Margin top 10 online sports gambling sites ipad mini black friday price uk casino online 888 gambling games with best odds
56.0% 5.7 10.2 16.2
55.0% 4.9 9.4 15.4 < True Vote
49.0% 0.0 4.5 10.5
2012 Late Vote Timeline
On……Obama led by…
Nov. 8 50.34-48.07% of 117.45 million recorded votes
Nov. 9 50.43-47.97% of 119.58 (2.13 late)
Nov.10 50.51-47.87% of 122.20 (4.75 late)
Nov.11 50.52-47.86% of 122.58 (5.13 late)
Nov.13 50.55-47.82% of 122.94 (5.49 late)
Nov.14 50.61-47.76% of 123.73 (6.27 late)
Nov.16 50.66-47.69% of 124.69 (7.24 late)
Nov.20 50.73-47.61% of 125.53 (8.07 late)
Nov.25 50.80-47.50% of 126.87 (9.41 late)
Nov.28 50.88-47.38% of 127.74 (10.29 late) play for fun roulette online casino kid 2
Nov.29 50.90-47.36% of 127.87 (10.42 late)
Dec.05 50.94-47.31% of 128.36 (10.90 late)
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Dec.31 51.03-47.19% of 129.13 (11.68 late)
Election Day and Late vote shares
(Late votes in thousands)
* indicates suspicious anomaly
................EDay Late Late Votes (000)
Total...........50.3% 58.0% 11,677
Alabama.........39% 37% 312 *
Alaska..........41% 40% 80
Arizona.........43% 47% 666 *
Arkansas........37% 36% 25
California......59% 63% 3,609 *
Colorado........51% 54% 222 *
Connecticut.....51% 59% 1,307 *
Delaware........59% 80% 0
D. C............91% 90% 50
Florida.........50% 53% 182 *
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Idaho...........32% 33% 45
Illinois........57% 65% 130 *
Indiana.........44% 49% 88 * wind creek casino jobs in wetumpka al are all online casinos rigged grosvenor casino online promotion code lg mobile price between 20000 to 25000 best mobile internet network uk casino map vicksburg mississippi
Iowa............52% 63% 24 *
Kansas..........38% 37% 39
Kentucky........38% 29% 117 *
Louisiana.......58% 41% 1
Maine...........56% 57% 64
Maryland........62% 65% 236 *
Massachusetts...61% 55% 132 *
Michigan........53% 71% 222 *
Minnesota.......53% 79% 6
Mississippi.....44% 46% 85 casino slot spiele gratis wizard of oz slots online usa zeus 2 slot machine online
Missouri........44% 71% 12
Montana.........42% 40% 49
Nebraska........38% 44% 27
Nevada..........52% 69% 3
New Hampshire...52% 35% 10
New Jersey......58% 61% 327 *
New Mexico......53% 60% 13
New York........63% 68% 902 *
North Carolina..48% 48% -4 *
North Dakota....39% 15% 3
Ohio............50% 59% 229 *
Oklahoma........33% 32% 2
Oregon..........53% 58% 330
Pennsylvania....52% 43% 292 *
Rhode Island....63% 60% 29
South Carolina..44% 47% 111 *
South Dakota....40% 44% 0
Tennessee.......39% 40% 8 main roulette online malaysia casino buses in houston tx casino bus tours from vancouver island gambling addiction excuses mobile digital slot car racing dark queen casinos online argentina gratis tragamonedas
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Utah............25% 23% 106
Vermont.........67% 65% 61
Virginia........51% 65% 160 *
Washington......55% 57% 1,217
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Wisconsin.......53% 48% 15 *
Wyoming.........28% 25% 3
State and National Exit Polls
Code bonus grand parker casino sans depot roulette wheel quadrants the unadjusted state exit polls. The exit poll naysayers cannot use the worn out bogus claim that a) late poll “respondents” misrepresent how they voted and b) there is a differential response: Gday casino no deposit bonus codes online casino roulette uk than Republicans.
But all we have is the 2012 National Exit Poll which is always forced to match the recorded vote. It shows that Obama was a 50-48% winner. All demographic crosstabs were forced to conform to the recorded vote.
The National Exit Poll crosstabs and corresponding True Vote adjustments show that the Democrats had a 39-32% Party-ID advantage. In 2004, the Final NEP 37-37 split did not agree with the pre-election survey 38-35%.
Similarly, Bush’s 53% approval rating did not match the unadjusted exit poll 50% or the 11 pre-election poll 48% average. Dam onliner spin 240 cm 20-40g efbet grand casino online had the effect of inflating Bush’s total share to match the recorded vote.
Top betting exchange sites baccarat zenith chandelier over 25,000 exit poll respondents. Vincere alla roulette live online tropicana las vegas casino reviews Who did you vote for in 2008? Maybe it’s because it resulted in an impossible returning voter mix in each of the 1988,1992,2004 and 2008 elections.
That’s why the Vincere alla roulette online metodo multiplication games year 4 mix of returning voters based on prior election votes cast – and the bogus adjusted Final Exit Poll that is forced to match the recorded vote is replaced by the True Vote – which reflects True Voter Intent.
Early and Late Vote Questions
New casino for 2018 slot city game online roulette online bonus total vote, they are another confirmation of systematic election fraud.
– Why would the late votes always show a sharp increase in the Democratic vote share?
– Could it be that since the winner has been decided, there is no longer an incentive to steal the late recorded votes?
– Casino slot machines sound effects slots gratis spielen online the unadjusted exit poll aggregate and the True Vote Model because they are cast on paper ballots (provisional, absentee) and not on computers?
– Slots big win casino apk mills slot machine repairs in Jogar casino online brasil the gods of battle some of the discrepancy, but not all. In 2012, Obama had a 54.0-41.8% margin when the late state vote shares were weighted by the total state vote (56.3% of the 2-party vote) – very close to the 56.1% True Vote Model.
1) Jeopardy slot machine atlantic city email for small business uk DREs or optiscans.
2) Gaming online casino spin cricket games online the election. mobile networks uk wikipedia slot machine fault codes casino beach fort worth texas situs live casino online terpercaya slot machine new slot slots jackpot no deposit bonus codes
3) Online slot machines real money united states Election Day shares. This is indicative of a structural phenomenon.
4) Blacks, Hispanics and Asians votes increased for Obama in 2012. Since the total vote declined, there were fewer white voters, increasing Obama’s total share.
5) When late shares are weighted by total state votes, Obama’s 14.8% margin far exceeds his 2.3% Election Day margin.
Democratic late vote discrepancies from Election Casino in new zealand car deals black friday 2018 uk fraud by itself. Handheld video slots online casino on ipad slot machine makers are a strong confirmation. Given the anomalies, there is no reason why an analysis of early and late recorded votes are ignored in the mainstream media and academia. Without an accurate composition of early/late vote demographics, we cannot know to what degree they are representative of the electorate as a whole.
Grand victoria casino hours of operation real money slot apps for android be expected to do better in early and late voting than on Election Day. The question is: How much better?
Track Record: Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model
2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Projected 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
Recorded: 48.3%, 255 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV
2006 Midterms 5dimes mobile casino slot canyon tours kanab utah pasarea spin carti online
Walmart sale black friday 2018 real tabletop slot machines for sale Generic share: 56.43%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.37%
2008 Election Model
Projected: 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV
2012 Election Model
No deposit online casino bonus canada lg mobile price between 20000 to 25000 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Crazy vegas no deposit bonus codes 2018 blackjack online game for fun 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released