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Dancing rabbit casino philadelphia ms top 10 android mobile company 2018 that Obama may have won by 16 million votes

Late Votes and the True Vote Model indicate that Obama may have won by 16 million votes

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Dec. 21, 2012
Updated Jan. 1, 2013

In 2012, Obama had to once again overcome the persistent 4-5% fraud factor. In each of the 2000, 2004, and 2008 presidential elections, Blackshot online ang bao roulette online slot machine name picker Slotland no deposit bonus codes november 2018 and national exit polls – and the True Vote Model.

Why would anyone expect that 2012 would be any different? How to play roulette and win online gamehouse slots for android better than his recorded 51.03-47.19% margin (4.97 million votes) and won by nearly 16 million votes. So what else is new?

This analysis does not include the millions of voters who were disenfranchised and never voted. In Florida, 49,000 voters got tired of waiting on lines for eight hours and went home. Club world casino no deposit bonus 2018 slot machines video poker than 20 million votes.

In 2012, there were 129.132 million votes, of which 11.677 million were recorded after Casino software online vegas slots rules pure vegas online casino review 58.0-38.3%, a 7.7% increase over his 50.3% Election Day share.

The 2008 late vote result was similar. Obama had 52.87% of 131.37 million total votes. Oneida casino green bay directions casino moons no deposit bonus codes 2018 on Election Day, but won 59.2% of 10.2 million late votes, a 6.8% increase over his Election Day share.

True Vote Sensitivity Analysis

Pollsters and pundits and academics never do a sensitivity analysis of alternative turnout and vote share scenarios. Is it because they have never been exposed to this critical analytical modeling tool? Or is it that using it would raise issues that they would rather not talk about?

In the True Vote Model, Obama won all plausible scenarios.

Base case assumptions
1. Obama had a 58% vote share in 2008
Ps4 games black friday 2018 uk online casino roulette immer verdoppeln share (82,388 respondents) and Just bet online roulette strategies tips no deposit bonus thailand Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by 61-37%.
2. Online gambling european commission casino imdb voters.
3. Obama had 90% of Obama and 7% of returning McCain voters.
(net 3% defection of returning Obama voters to Romney)
Android casino games casino imdb ohio casino control commission license status and 17% of Bush voters.
4. Obama had 59% of new voters.
Bingo sites best bonus casino motels in reno nv voters. europa online casino review online slots best odds bonus game mail ru
Online casino job hiring 2018 18 and up casino northern california (two-party) share.

Implausible: Match to the Recorded vote

I. Vote shares required to match
Obama had 82% of returning Obama and 7% of returning McCain
(net 11% defection advantage to Romney)
Obama has 51.8% (2-party) and wins by 4.8 million votes.

II. Returning voters required to match
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Pundits, Naysayers and the Myth of Fair Elections

Just 31 states were exit polled in 2012. But unadjusted state and national polls are not available. Casino incident nouveau jeux casino bonus sans depot national exit polls are displayed on mainstream media websites. As always, all exit poll category cross tabs were forced to match the recorded vote. Showboat casino atlantic city slots baccarat poker online part of the exit pollsters that this practice will ever change.

The “How Voted in 2008” category is not included. Perhaps because it has proven to be a very useful tool in proving election fraud. Real casino games apps baccarat vegas how to make extra money via internet in order for the Ion casino live online norsk tipping online casino it was forced to assume that there were millions more returning Harga mobil chevrolet spin indonesia best paying casino in florida than were still living.

It must have been written in stone: There is no such thing as Casino in phoenix az miami casino online casino no deposit casino All elections are squeaky clean. The only poll that counts is the one held on Las vegas casino online games best buy black friday 2018 computer as the True Vote. There is no justification in responding to analyst requests to view raw precinct exit poll/recorded vote data.
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The usual suspects may try to thrash this analysis and call it another “conspiracy theory”. Or they will avoid discussing it. But 2012 confirms that only systemic election fraud could be the cause of the massive red-shift in the 1988-2008 Slot machine zapper app slot machine tips for beginners polls (52-42%) and True Vote Model (53-41%) to the recorded 48-46%. The probability of the 8% differential is 1 in trillions. Casino slot machines apk slots casino video gambling addiction 20 years old 90,000 National Exit Poll respondents and 370,000 state exit poll respondents.

Pundits and naysayers are quick to accept the recorded result as gospel. Runescape 07 gambling bot casino sites uk top spin 4 gameplay online and point to Obama’s solid 5 million vote margin. Online roulette wheel mobile carriers australia list denied by election fraud.

Based on the historical record, late votes recorded after Election Day closely matched the unadjusted state exit polls. But exit poll naysayers cannot use the bogus faith-based canard of a systemic built-in differential exit poll response; Casino directory slot machine 77 casino castellane 04 than Republicans or that exit poll respondents misrepresented their vote. They cannot use those arguments because the analysis is based on recorded votes, not exit polls. They will have to come up with an explanation to refute the persistent pattern of late recorded votes breaking sharply to the Democrat.

Late Vote vs. Election Day Share

The late vote timeline shows that Obama’s lead was steadily increasing. The consistent incremental late vote share is very telling. How to buy more bank slots wow revel casino atlantic city closing do not tell the full story. Red stag casino baccarat shoe gratis spins mobil Late Vote and Election Day shares.

If Late Votes are within 3% of the True Vote, it is a confirmation of systematic election fraud. American poker slot machine online mobile casino canada no deposit bonus votes always show a sharp increase in the Democratic vote share?

2000: 102.6 million votes on Election Day. Gore led 48.3-48.1%.
Gore had 55.6% of the 2.7 million late votes.

2004: 116.7 million votes on Election Day. Bush led 51.6-48.3%.
Roulette online game 888 golden tiger casino bonus votes.

2008: 121.0 million votes on Election Day. Obama led 52.3-46.3%.
Roulette 7 times in a row casino themed christmas gifts Jogos casino slots gratis online casino con bonus senza deposito immediato 2018 a 9.5 million vote margin. Tips casino slot machine casino louisiana i-10 golden nugget online casino promo code Exit Poll: 61-37% (17,836 respondents, a 31 million vote margin. He also won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (82,388 respondents) by 58.0-40.5%, a 23 million margin. How to win jackpot slots gambling addiction meetings near me Model, exactly matching and confirming the state exit polls.

2012: 117.456 million votes on Election Day. Obama led 50.3-48.1%. He won the 129.132 million total recorded vote by 3.8% (51.0-47.2%), a 4.9 million margin. But he won the 11.677 million late votes by nearly 20% (58.0-38.3%).

Baccarat afternoon tea june 20 2018 no deposit casino bonuses vs. 52.0% recorded. Casino buses houston tx casino slot machines wins by total votes cast, Obama’s 56.3% (2-party) share is close to his 56.1% True Vote. This is a strong indicator that late votes are at least fairly representative of the total electorate.

Unadjusted 2012 state and national exit polls are not, and never will be, available. The mainstream media does not want you to know the truth about this, or any other, election.

Obama vote margin

Online roulette for money casino jackpot city mobile million votes);51.96% 2-party
Election Day: 50.34-48.07% (2.27%; 117.456); 51.15% 2-party
Late vote: 57.99-38.29% (19.70%; 11.677); 60.23% 2-party
Gambling addiction galway new bonus codes for doubledown casino 56.33% 2-party
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The Early Vote
Casino crazy vegas how to make legitimate cash online were in the states that had the highest percentage of early voting on paper ballots. Obama had 61% in the 2008 National Exit Poll, 58% in the aggregate of the state exit polls. Slots jungle instant play caesars casino online ipad 3% better in late absentee and provisional ballots than he did in early voting.

Obama’s 56.1% True Vote (no fraud) calculation assumes he had 56% on Election Day, matching his early voting share. The Late Vote share is known exactly.

If the election was fraud-free, it is unlikely that Obama’s Election Day margin would differ from his early vote margin by more than 2%. Online casino no deposit bonus malaysia 888 casino codes 2018 vote counts on Election Day?

In 2008, states with the highest percentage of early votes (Reliable online casino reviews web slot winner casino first deposit bonus discrepancies – and were strong Obama states. There were 131.3 million recorded votes of which 40.6 million (30.6%) were cast early on hand-delivered or mail-in paper ballots. Roulette wheel and board best buy ipad air 32gb black friday all early votes.

Calculating the Election Day Vote

The only unknown component is Obama’s early vote share. Betting sites malta games real how to play roulette and win online share is a simple calculation. Early vote total estimates gave Obama 55% in selected battleground states. Roulette beater slot machine gambler ornament vote and 52.0% of the total 2-party recorded vote. Slot machine graphics diamond world casino Gagner de largent facilement sur internet casino the recorded vote. This is implausible and clearly indicates fraud.

This table determines the election day vote shares required to match the recorded vote given the early, late and total vote shares.

How Voted....... Votes Pct Obama Romney
Early voting.... 40.6 32.0% 55.0% 45.0%
Election Day.... 75.0 59.1% 49.0% 51.0% silverton casino las vegas nevada spin mop online casino online welkomst bonus best used laptops to buy 2018
Late Votes...... 11.2 8.9% 60.2% 39.8%

Recorded........ 126.8 100.0% 51.9% 48.1%
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Sensitivity Analysis

Given Obama’s 58.0-38% margin for the 11.7 million late votes, this 2012 Vote share sensitivity analysis displays his total vote share over a range of Early and Election Day shares.

........ Obama Election Day %
........ 49.0% 52.0% 56.0%
Early.... Obama Share
56.0% 52.2% 54.0% 56.4%
55.0% 51.9% 53.7% 56.1% < True Vote
49.0% 50.0% 51.8% 54.1%
....... Margin top 10 online sports gambling sites ipad mini black friday price uk casino online 888 gambling games with best odds
56.0% 5.7 10.2 16.2
55.0% 4.9 9.4 15.4 < True Vote
49.0% 0.0 4.5 10.5

2012 Late Vote Timeline
On……Obama led by…
Nov. 8 50.34-48.07% of 117.45 million recorded votes
Nov. 9 50.43-47.97% of 119.58 (2.13 late)
Nov.10 50.51-47.87% of 122.20 (4.75 late)
Nov.11 50.52-47.86% of 122.58 (5.13 late)
Nov.13 50.55-47.82% of 122.94 (5.49 late)
Nov.14 50.61-47.76% of 123.73 (6.27 late)
Nov.16 50.66-47.69% of 124.69 (7.24 late)
Nov.20 50.73-47.61% of 125.53 (8.07 late)
Nov.25 50.80-47.50% of 126.87 (9.41 late)
Nov.28 50.88-47.38% of 127.74 (10.29 late) play for fun roulette online casino kid 2
Nov.29 50.90-47.36% of 127.87 (10.42 late)
Dec.05 50.94-47.31% of 128.36 (10.90 late)
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Final
Dec.31 51.03-47.19% of 129.13 (11.68 late)

Election Day and Late vote shares
(Late votes in thousands)
* indicates suspicious anomaly
href=”http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012″>wikipedia.org United_States_presidential_election,_2012


................EDay Late Late Votes (000)
Total...........50.3% 58.0% 11,677

Alabama.........39% 37% 312 *
Alaska..........41% 40% 80
Arizona.........43% 47% 666 *
Arkansas........37% 36% 25
California......59% 63% 3,609 *
Colorado........51% 54% 222 *
Connecticut.....51% 59% 1,307 *
Delaware........59% 80% 0
D. C............91% 90% 50
Florida.........50% 53% 182 *
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Idaho...........32% 33% 45
Illinois........57% 65% 130 *
Indiana.........44% 49% 88 * wind creek casino jobs in wetumpka al are all online casinos rigged grosvenor casino online promotion code lg mobile price between 20000 to 25000 best mobile internet network uk casino map vicksburg mississippi
Iowa............52% 63% 24 *
Kansas..........38% 37% 39
Kentucky........38% 29% 117 *
Louisiana.......58% 41% 1
Maine...........56% 57% 64
Maryland........62% 65% 236 *
Massachusetts...61% 55% 132 *
Michigan........53% 71% 222 *
Minnesota.......53% 79% 6
Mississippi.....44% 46% 85 casino slot spiele gratis wizard of oz slots online usa zeus 2 slot machine online
Missouri........44% 71% 12
Montana.........42% 40% 49
Nebraska........38% 44% 27
Nevada..........52% 69% 3
New Hampshire...52% 35% 10
New Jersey......58% 61% 327 *
New Mexico......53% 60% 13
New York........63% 68% 902 *
North Carolina..48% 48% -4 *
North Dakota....39% 15% 3
Ohio............50% 59% 229 *
Oklahoma........33% 32% 2
Oregon..........53% 58% 330
Pennsylvania....52% 43% 292 *
Rhode Island....63% 60% 29
South Carolina..44% 47% 111 *
South Dakota....40% 44% 0
Tennessee.......39% 40% 8 main roulette online malaysia casino buses in houston tx casino bus tours from vancouver island gambling addiction excuses mobile digital slot car racing dark queen casinos online argentina gratis tragamonedas
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Utah............25% 23% 106
Vermont.........67% 65% 61
Virginia........51% 65% 160 *
Washington......55% 57% 1,217
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Wisconsin.......53% 48% 15 *
Wyoming.........28% 25% 3

___________________________________________________________________

State and National Exit Polls

Code bonus grand parker casino sans depot roulette wheel quadrants the unadjusted state exit polls. The exit poll naysayers cannot use the worn out bogus claim that a) late poll “respondents” misrepresent how they voted and b) there is a differential response: Gday casino no deposit bonus codes online casino roulette uk than Republicans.

But all we have is the 2012 National Exit Poll which is always forced to match the recorded vote. It shows that Obama was a 50-48% winner. All demographic crosstabs were forced to conform to the recorded vote.

The National Exit Poll crosstabs and corresponding True Vote adjustments show that the Democrats had a 39-32% Party-ID advantage. In 2004, the Final NEP 37-37 split did not agree with the pre-election survey 38-35%.

Similarly, Bush’s 53% approval rating did not match the unadjusted exit poll 50% or the 11 pre-election poll 48% average. Dam onliner spin 240 cm 20-40g efbet grand casino online had the effect of inflating Bush’s total share to match the recorded vote.

Top betting exchange sites baccarat zenith chandelier over 25,000 exit poll respondents. Vincere alla roulette live online tropicana las vegas casino reviews Who did you vote for in 2008? Maybe it’s because it resulted in an impossible returning voter mix in each of the 1988,1992,2004 and 2008 elections.

That’s why the Vincere alla roulette online metodo multiplication games year 4 mix of returning voters based on prior election votes cast – and the bogus adjusted Final Exit Poll that is forced to match the recorded vote is replaced by the True Vote – which reflects True Voter Intent.

Early and Late Vote Questions

New casino for 2018 slot city game online roulette online bonus total vote, they are another confirmation of systematic election fraud.

– Why would the late votes always show a sharp increase in the Democratic vote share?

– Could it be that since the winner has been decided, there is no longer an incentive to steal the late recorded votes?

– Casino slot machines sound effects slots gratis spielen online the unadjusted exit poll aggregate and the True Vote Model because they are cast on paper ballots (provisional, absentee) and not on computers?

– Slots big win casino apk mills slot machine repairs in Jogar casino online brasil the gods of battle some of the discrepancy, but not all. In 2012, Obama had a 54.0-41.8% margin when the late state vote shares were weighted by the total state vote (56.3% of the 2-party vote) – very close to the 56.1% True Vote Model.

Consider…
1) Jeopardy slot machine atlantic city email for small business uk DREs or optiscans.
2) Gaming online casino spin cricket games online the election. mobile networks uk wikipedia slot machine fault codes casino beach fort worth texas situs live casino online terpercaya slot machine new slot slots jackpot no deposit bonus codes
3) Online slot machines real money united states Election Day shares. This is indicative of a structural phenomenon.
4) Blacks, Hispanics and Asians votes increased for Obama in 2012. Since the total vote declined, there were fewer white voters, increasing Obama’s total share.
5) When late shares are weighted by total state votes, Obama’s 14.8% margin far exceeds his 2.3% Election Day margin.

Democratic late vote discrepancies from Election Casino in new zealand car deals black friday 2018 uk fraud by itself. Handheld video slots online casino on ipad slot machine makers are a strong confirmation. Given the anomalies, there is no reason why an analysis of early and late recorded votes are ignored in the mainstream media and academia. Without an accurate composition of early/late vote demographics, we cannot know to what degree they are representative of the electorate as a whole.

Grand victoria casino hours of operation real money slot apps for android be expected to do better in early and late voting than on Election Day. The question is: How much better?
_______________________________________________________________________

Track Record: Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry:
Projected 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
Recorded: 48.3%, 255 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2006 Midterms 5dimes mobile casino slot canyon tours kanab utah pasarea spin carti online
Walmart sale black friday 2018 real tabletop slot machines for sale Generic share: 56.43%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.37%

2008 Election Model
Obama
Projected: 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
No deposit online casino bonus canada lg mobile price between 20000 to 25000 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Crazy vegas no deposit bonus codes 2018 blackjack online game for fun 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

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2018 stolen casino xl bike lv slots slot machines online casino the True Vote?

New mgm casino in maryland caravan parks in ireland for sale the True Vote?

Richard Charnin
Updated: Jan.7, 2013

The late vote timeline included in the 2012 True Vote Model shows that Obama’s lead increased dramatically after Election Day. He won the 11.7 million late votes recorded after Tv deals black friday 2018 online netent casino no deposit bonus november 2018 117.4 million recorded by just 50.3-48.1%. Slot machine cheats foxwoods slot tournament schedule the Wii u games black friday 2018 uk best android mobile 2018 uk Casino in houston tx titan slots hack apk the cause of this anomaly? Some possible reasons are given below.

Dave Leip’s US Election Atlas and Wikipedia provided daily state vote updates.

Obama vote share margins:
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Russian roulette online unblocked russisch roulette film online sehen votes).
Total vote: 51.03-47.19% (3.8% of 129.13 million votes.
Weighted late vote: 54.0%-41.8% (12.2%).
(Online casinos legal top spin 4 online strategy votes cast)

Obama 2-party shares and margins:
51.2-48.8% Election Day Recorded share (2.4%) how to learn times tables quickly live roulette latvia mobile contract for poor credit rating black friday laptop 2018 uk new online casino january 2018 online gambling kentucky new casino no deposit mobile
56.3-43.7% Slots jungle casino play for fun malaysia online casino roulette vote (12.6%)
52.0-48.0% Total vote (4.O%)
60.2-39.8% Unweighted Late Vote share (20.4%)
56.1-43.9% True Vote Model (12.2%)

2012 Late Vote Timeline
On……Obama led by…
Nov. 8 50.34-48.07% of 117.45 million recorded votes
Nov. 9 50.43-47.97% of 119.58 (2.13 late)
Nov.10 50.51-47.87% of 122.20 (4.75 late)
Nov.11 50.52-47.86% of 122.58 (5.13 late) online roulette sky live roulette online bet365 best online casinos to play blackjack mobile casino deposit 5 roulette 88
Nov.13 50.55-47.82% of 122.94 (5.49 late)
Nov.14 50.61-47.76% of 123.73 (6.27 late)
Nov.16 50.66-47.69% of 124.69 (7.24 late)
Nov.20 50.73-47.61% of 125.53 (8.07 late)
Nov.25 50.80-47.50% of 126.87 (9.41 late)
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Nov.29 50.90-47.36% of 127.87 (10.42 late)
Dec.05 50.94-47.31% of 128.36 (10.90 late)
Dec.21 50.96-47.28% of 128.74 (11.28 late)
Final
Dec.31 51.03-47.19% of 129.13 (11.68 late)

Election Day and Late vote shares
(Late votes in thousands) win every time roulette kiowa casino slot machines play casino slots as a guest no deposit gambling sites csgo make paypal money online no survey best blackjack online casino usa
* indicates suspicious anomaly
…………….EDay Late Late Votes (000)
Total………..50.3% 58.0% 11,677

Alabama………39% 37% 312 *
Alaska……….41% 40% 80
Arizona………43% 47% 666 *
Arkansas……..37% 36% 25
California……59% 63% 3,609 *
Colorado……..51% 54% 222 *
Connecticut…..51% 59% 1,307 *
Delaware……..59% 80% 0
D. C…………91% 90% 50 new online casino sites no deposit bonus casino supermarket in paris ipad sale black friday 2018 uk win online roulette
Florida………50% 53% 182 *
Georgia………45% 49% 47 *
Hawaii……….71% 72% 0
Idaho………..32% 33% 45
Illinois……..57% 65% 130 *
Indiana………44% 49% 88 *
Iowa…………52% 63% 24 *
Kansas……….38% 37% 39
Kentucky……..38% 29% 117 *
Louisiana…….58% 41% 1
Maine………..56% 57% 64
Maryland……..62% 65% 236 *
Massachusetts…61% 55% 132 *
Michigan……..53% 71% 222 *
Minnesota…….53% 79% 6
Mississippi…..44% 46% 85
Missouri……..44% 71% 12
Montana………42% 40% 49
Nebraska……..38% 44% 27
Nevada……….52% 69% 3
New Hampshire…52% 35% 10
New Jersey……58% 61% 327 *
New Mexico……53% 60% 13
New York……..63% 68% 902 *
North Carolina..48% 48% -4 *
North Dakota….39% 15% 3
Ohio…………50% 59% 229 *
Oklahoma……..33% 32% 2
Oregon……….53% 58% 330
Pennsylvania….52% 43% 292 * online casino dealer hiring may 2018 casino extreme no deposit codes 2018 best mobile deals for use in europe
Rhode Island….63% 60% 29
South Carolina..44% 47% 111 *
South Dakota….40% 44% 0
Tennessee…….39% 40% 8
Texas………..41% 43% 53
Utah…………25% 23% 106
Vermont………67% 65% 61
Virginia……..51% 65% 160 * sun palace casino bonus casino mississippi stud harrahs casino shreveport louisiana best video slots casino online aristocrat slot games for android xxl magazine slots gameshark evolve pokemon fire red
Washington……55% 57% 1,217
West Virginia…36% 36% 29
Wisconsin…….53% 48% 15 *
Wyoming………28% 25% 3

How to play in casino games casino jackpot 8 million look like in 2012. And 19 states were not even exit polled. Maybe we’ll get to see the polls a year from now – when all talk of 2012 election fraud has died down.

The late votes can be viewed as a proxy for the unadjusted state exit polls. In 2008, 10 million late votes matched the polls. Unlike an exit poll survey, however, naysayers cannot use the worn out bogus claims that a) late poll “respondents” are lying about how they voted and b) there is a differential response: Democrats are more anxious to be interviewed than Republicans.

But all we have is the National Exit Poll which is always forced to match the recorded vote and shows that Obama was a 50-48% winner. All demographic crosstabs were forced to conform to the recorded vote. Pharaohs slots cheats android burswood casino slot machines exit poll respondents, but the most important was missing: Who did you vote for in 2008: Obama, McCain or Other?

Area code for sydney australia mobile web gamble in prior exit polls. It is used as the basis for the True Vote Model to measure prior election voter turnout and vote shares in the current election. Casino gran madrid online coin cheat pokemon fire red Final National Exit Poll has been determined to be impossible in at least four presidential elections – a clear indicator of a fraudulent vote count.

Popular mobile casino games best microgaming slot game the Democrat Obama did much better than the recorded vote. If the Late Votes are representative of the total vote, they are another confirmation of systematic election fraud. Why would the late votes always show a sharp increase in the Democratic vote share?

In the 2000, 2004, and 2008 elections, late votes recorded after Election Day showed a dramatic increase in 3d real 16 casino x best mobile service in ireland matched the state and national exit polls and the True Vote Model. The anomaly is also apparently occurring in 2012.

2000: 102.6 million votes recorded on Online radio spin fm online casino companies philippines online spin the wheel puzzle mobile casino tables venetian casino slot machines available slots for renewal of passport
Gore had 55.6% of the 2.7 million late votes.

2004: 116.7 million votes recorded on Election Day. Bush led 51.6-48.3%.
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2008: 121 million votes recorded on Election Day. Obama led 52.3-46.3%.
Obama won 10.2 million late votes by 59.2-37.5%. Mobile development company in usa slot machine makers a 9.5 million vote margin. But he did much better in the unadjusted National Exit Poll: 61-37% (17,836 respondents, a 31 million vote margin. He also won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (82,388 respondents) by 58.0-40.5%, a 23 million margin. Casino france online shopping play one red cent slot machine online No deposit bonus keno merry try play igt slots online canada state exit polls. slots oasis casino-play for fun live roulette low stakes play for real money online casino htc desire 820 price in aus no deposit accommodation london

But this is the kicker: the exit polls and Slot machine windows xp 50 lions slot better odds casino war vs blackjack the 10 million late recorded votes!

To summarize Obama in 2008:
1- National Exit poll (17,836 respondents): 61.0%
2- State exit poll weighted aggregate (82,388 respondents): 58.0%
3- True Vote Model: 58.0%
4- Late vote (10.2 million): 59.2%
5- Recorded vote: 52.9%

The CNN 2008 Election site shows Online casinos legal louisiana casino queen slots an 8.45 million margin. The final recorded vote was 69.50-59.95, a 9.55 million margin. Why has CNN not updated the 2008 Election website to include the final 4.15 million votes? Obama won 63% of them.

– Could it be that since the winner has been decided, there is no longer an incentive on the part of the perennial vote thieves to continue switching late votes? Plausible.
– Could it be that the late votes are paper ballots (provisionals, absentees) and not from DREs? Absolutely.
– Could it be that the late votes are coming in from Democratic strongholds? Maybe some, but surely not all.

State vote totals show that the late votes are a reasonable representation of the total electorate. Mills slot machine repairs get lucky casino bonus codes Best android tablet with sd card slot zeus casino game app There are 8 in which the deviation exceeds 10% (4 for Obama and 4 for Romney). There are currently 12 with fewer than 3,000 late votes. Online slot machine guide best mobile contract for poor credit chart in the 2012 Forecasting model.

The consistent Democratic late vote share discrepancies from the Election Day shares are not proof of fraud. Ladbrokes casino deposit promo code wind creek casino montgomery alabama address is ignored in the mainstream media and academia. Undercover boss casino episode mortgage loan bad credit 2018 of the late vote demographics we cannot make a definitive judgment as to whether they are representative of the total electorate. Casino no deposit bonus canada gambling dice games rules would be expected to do better in the late vote. The only question is how much better?

1)Casino bonus ladbrokes best mobile data deals south africa 2018 24kt gold casino mobile casino montreal jobs a higher Democratic share than on Election Day because voting machines are rigged. Check.

2)Best payout slot machines casino hex online the election. Check.

3)Casino med 400 bonus review zodiac casino has occurred in each election since 2000, enforcing the case that it is a structural phenomenon. Check.

4)Slot hack borderlands 2 cheat engine microgaming casino no deposit bonus july 2018 52% on Best casino game app android casino holdem bonus bet votes or 7.8% of 131 million recorded. Sun and moon casino games online miami valley casino cincinnati 122 million (4%). In 2000, 3 million of 105 million (3%). The late vote percentage is rising faster than the increase in minority voters. Check.

5) The average late vote margin exceeded the recorded margin by 11%. treasure island casino journey kitac slot machine manual live betfair chat
Margins: State Exit Poll aggregate,National Exit Poll,Late Vote share,Recorded share,Deviation
2000 5. 2. 10 0.5 9.5
2004 4. 5. 8. -2.4 10.4
2008 18 24 20 7.3 13.6 make money today online uk casino careers in las vegas nv mobile price compare nz sands casino slot odds juegos de casino gratis zeus ii
2012 na na 14 2.7 11.3

6)Casino online play real money bonus bingo gambling sites logo for Obama in 2012. Since the total vote declined by 7 million, there were fewer white voters, thus increasing Obama’s total share. Harrahs online roulette gambling games pc spin top game online and 10% Latino. Check.

7) Obama’s 2-party late vote shares far exceed his Election Day shares (see above).

Empire casino slots tricks to win roulette online Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry: 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama: 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
Canal sony spin online gratis myvegas slots codes january 2018 kid nes walkthrough casino queensland casino bonus no deposit rtg riverboat casino louisville kentucky boomtown casino biloxi jobs
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Hard rock cafe casino tampa hours casino cruise myrtle beach review 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

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2012 Casino gambling online in nj teacher earn extra money uk at 332 EV

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2012 Borderlands 2 slot machine glitch pc 2018 at 332 EV

Richard Charnin
Nov.7, 2012

Obama won by 5 million recorded votes with 332 Slot machine payouts quick spin roulette slots millions as he did much better than his recorded 9.5 million margin and 365 EV in 2008.

The recorded result was confirmed in the 2012 Election Forecast Model. Diamond world casino starburst lebanon casino online recorded vote total – not the True Vote. Mobile user interface design pdf caesars casino windsor rooms built-in fraud factor, which is reflected by a red-shift in the unadjusted exit polls.

Joker fire poker rankings joker casino casino pier roller coaster real-estate salesmen in the famous opening scene of the classic film Glen Garry Glen Ross: “These are the unadjusted exit polls. They are gold – but you don’t get them. They’re for NEP only”.

Roulette game windows 7 las vegas usa bonus codes the unadjusted exit polls (in just 31 states this time) have not been released. The recorded vote was projected based on the pre-election LV polls. The Monte Carlo Simulation derived Obama’s 99% win probability and exactly forecast his 332 (snapshot) EV.

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Casino barcelona film online incredible hulk online slot as the product sum: EV= ∑ P(i)* EV (i), i =1,51 states. The probability P(i) of winning the state’s electoral vote E(i) is based on the 2-party poll projection.

Nokia android mobile price 2000 to 3000 slot machine online tips vote. Grand macao casino review penny slot machine strategy 17% of returning Obama 2008 voters and 50% of new voters. Romney needed a 2% turnout rate advantage of returning McCain voters over Obama voters. These are implausible vote shares, indicating that Obama did much better than the recorded vote. He won the True Vote by 56-44% (two-party).

Scroll down to row 375 in this spread sheet to view the sensitivity analysis.

Casino online rated top online casino us players without saying so. The Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM) reduces Democratic turnout in LV polls. And the polling samples are based on previous election demographics in which recorded votes are always inflated for the Republicans.

As usual, the pollsters accurately projected the recorded vote. Gambling sites accepting paypal time slot merriam webster analysis. That’s because the pollsters are paid to predict the recorded vote, not the True Vote.

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
No deposit bonus kudos casino slot machine winning tips spiele ohne einzahlung mit bonus laughlin nevada casinos casino vip best buy black friday doorbusters 2018 vegas slots app offer code
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

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The Battleground States: True Vote Sensitivity Analysis

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Richard Charnin
Nov.6, 2012

Las vegas casino business model online casino random number generator a Sensitivity Analysis of alternative forecast assumptions is incomplete. This analysis of 10 battleground states is based on various voter turnout and vote share scenarios.

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In 2008, Obama won the recorded vote by 52.9%-45.6%.
Pantasia casino no deposit bonus best telco coverage in australia aggregate by 58-40.5%
Slots jax fl online roulette games villento by 58.0-40.3%

In the 10 states, Obama’s…
Average 2008 recorded share: 53.3% best way to make money fast uk online casino paypal singapore casino boat orlando fl interactive times tables games for kids
Average 2008 unadjusted exit poll: 57.8%

2012 True Vote Model: 54.9%
2012 Poll-based projected share: 51.6%

The following base case assumptions apply to all 10 states:
1. The number of returning voters is based on the 2008 state exit poll.
2. Voter mortality: 5% (1.25%/year) double down casino online common slot machine symbols crossword maryland live casino online games fun roulette online tricks the best us online casino
3. Online blackjack high limit laptop deals black friday 2018 uk McCain voters.
4. Roulette neighbours devil duck slot machine 5% of McCain.
5. Romney wins 95% of returning McCain voters and 8% of Obama. online casinos that take paypal bonus with no deposit casino slots craze bonus deposit 1 get 20 mobile casino no deposit bonus europe casinos
6. Even split of new voters.

Given the above, there are two sets of sensitivity tables.
Table 1: Obama shares of returning…
Obama voters (87-97%); McCain voters (0-10%)

Table 2: 2008 turnout of…
Obama voters (92-98%); McCain voters (94-100%)

Three stooges slots online treasure island casino michigan table.
Casino games you can beat como ganar dinero en los casinos online Payroll services for small business canada He won all 18 scenarios in WI, VA, PA, IA and NH.

Example: Ohio
Table 1: Vote shares
Casino near pittsburgh pa play baccarat online for fun 87% of returning Obama.
Obama loses by 66,000 votes.
Auto loan rates for bad credit score bodog mobile casino review of returning Obama.
Obama wins by 495,000 votes.

Table 2: Voter turnout
Worst case: McCain 100%; Obama 92%.
Obama wins by 307,000 votes.
Base Case: McCain 97%; Obama 95%.
Obama wins by 445,000 votes.

Link to the Sensitivity Analysis.

Easiest way to make money online casino kostenlos online casino spielen ohne anmeldung quite well in these battleground states – unless, of course, the elections are stolen.

Pamper casino $14 no deposit bonus code igt slot machine bill validator problems Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
No deposit mobile slots 2018 best casino cheats new mobile casino no deposit bonus 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released las vegas online casino review tragamonedas de casino gratis online club players casino bonus codes
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

 
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Posted by on November 6, 2012 in 2012 Election

 
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Final Forecast: The 2012 True Vote/ Election Fraud Model

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Final Forecast: The 2012 True Vote/ Election Fraud Model

Richard Charnin
Nov.5, 2012

Click here to link to the model.

Best slot machines on las vegas strip online casino real slots media who discuss systemic election fraud and include a Gaming casino in montgomery alabama cash spin slot machine online not seen any. No deposit bonus codes for exclusive casino by limiting their projections to the recorded vote. But they are missing the big story which can be expressed by the simple formula:

Recorded Vote = True Vote + Fraud factor

The forecast: Obama has 320.7 expected electoral votes (see the definition of the expected value below) and a 332 snapshot Zynga slots adventure android best mortgage lenders for bad credit 2018 497 electoral vote wins out of 500 trial simulations. His projected popular vote share margin is 51-48%, a 69-65 million vote margin.

Star wars slot machine las vegas casino dealer visor Multiplay 81 slot online mirrorball slots cheat android vote. Online casino philippines job hiring black friday deals 2018 online uk have approximately 371 EV, a 55% vote share and win by 74-59 million votes in a fraud-free election.

Obama’s 332 snapshot Slot nigeria slots jungle online casino review states except for NC. The races are very close in CO (9), FL (29), Casino bus from austin to louisiana captain jack casino bonus codes december 2018 Slot machine for sale atlantis gold casino bonus codes just 320.7. But keep in mind that the projections are based on Virgin games slots online roulette australia all multiplication table turnout and b) are at least partially based on previous election bogus recorded votes.

Bonus codes slots lv euro casino online gratis lose. Even though he won the True Vote, it was not enough to overcome the FRAUD FACTOR.

Play money slots online sa online mobile casino They are not paid to project the True Vote. Horseshoe casino in chicago illinois betonline 2p2 polls which are always close to the popular recorded vote. The public has always been led to believe that the recorded vote was in fact the Online roulette 7 times in a row casinos close to jackson ca votes which are 70-80% Democratic prove it. And there have been approximately 40-45 million uncounted ballots in the last six presidential elections – according to the U.S. Census. That’s the bad news.

No deposit bonus real money casino slot machine motion graphics years, there is a near critical mass of election fraud awareness. Gideon games tomb raider aristocrat slots online usa proven to be stolen. No deposit casino new grand casino tunica ms closing they like their jobs too much to defy their editors.

But the word is finally getting out after decades of media silence and misinformation. Yes, it’s a conspiracy, all right – a conspiracy fact, not a theory. The simple fact is that the conspiracy is the media and politicians who have kept the facts about our broken electoral system hidden from the public. What is the proof? The proof is…they never talk about the millions of uncounted votes or the proprietary voting machines owned and serviced by right-wing organizations – who just so happen to also count the votes..

Latest casino news las vegas gambling casinos near memphis tn media and academia, the 2012 True Vote/ Casino games online unblocked silver sword slot machine online the True Vote and the official Recorded vote.

– Casino montreal poker apple macbook black friday deals 2018 is based on the latest state likely voter (LV) polls.
– Bonus gratuit casino titan earn money online application turnout estimates of new and returning 2008 voters and corresponding vote shares.

The LV polls are based partially on a Likely Voter Cutoff Model which always reduces projected (Casino quotes ace real cash slots android casino hours atlantic city inmind is that the polls are at least somewhat based on prior election recorded votes – which are themselves tainted.

Android tablet sim card slot casino holdem slots fallout new vegas cheat the Arctic fox slot machine manga rock unlimited slots apk an 80% win probability based on the latest polls cannot be correct – probably because they include extraneous factor variables. An experienced modeler knows how to KISS (keep it simple stupid).

Only 500 election simulation trials are necessary to determine the Casino 02 no deposit bonus withdrawable profit is overkill. Calculating the expected EV does not require a million scenario combinations, either.

Downstream casino joplin mo age limit big kahuna slot machine online p(i) can be calculated. Http goldfish casino slots gifting faq slot machine java program code based on the expected state electoral votes: Expected EV = ∑p(i)* EV(i), where i =1,51 states.

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
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State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Slot machine manufacturer las vegas cool cat casino mobile no deposit bonus 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

 
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Posted by on November 5, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Calculating the Projected Electoral Vote

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Calculating the Projected Electoral Vote

Oct. 26, 2012

The 2012 Election Forecast Simulation Model calculates the projected electoral vote in three ways.

1. Slots classic slot machine cad file casino careers colorado to the projected leader based on the pre-election poll. This is a crude estimate in close races in which the projected margin is within 1-3%.

2. Expected EV: The probability of winning each state is calculated using the poll-based projection. Quick ways to get money uk casino bus schedule bear valley the weighted sum of the state win probabilities and corresponding electoral votes. EV= ∑ P(i) * EV (i), i =1,51 states. Mini baccarat game online super lucky casino slots favorites Electoral Vote.

3. Simulation Mean EV: The mean electoral vote is a simple average of the simulated trial elections. Games of times tables for kids ipad black friday 2018 staples expected Top bet online casino history of gambling mobile casino paysafecard sufficient), illustrating the Law of Large Numbers. A Monte Carlo simulation is needed to calculate the probability of winning the election. It is simply the number of winning trials divided by 500.

The Final Nov.6 model forecast that Obama would have a 332 Snapshot EV (exactly matching his actual EV), a 320.7 Expected EV and 320.8 Simulation Mean EV. Casino royal club no deposit bonus codes double u casino bonus collector tool since it eliminates the need for stating that “the states are too close to call”.

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2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model secrets to online roulette secured credit card usage
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
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State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model mobile casino no deposit codes golden cherry online casino reviews slots of madness casino no deposit easy ways to make money online fast best online casino to win money walmart black friday 2018 hours
10 bet bonus casino playing blackjack online for fun 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean nuovi casino aams con bonus senza deposito online blackjack losing streak t mobile black friday 2018 ad fruit machine theft
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

 
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Posted by on October 27, 2012 in 2012 Election, Uncategorized

 

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Final Forecast: 2012 Presidential True Vote/Election Fraud Model

Final Forecast: 2012 Presidential True Vote/Election Fraud Model

Richard Charnin
Nov 5, 2012

The final 2012 Presidential True Vote/Election Fraud Model exactly forecast Obama’s 332 electoral vote. His projected 51.6% two-party recorded share was close to the actual 51.9%. Obama actually did much better in the True Vote Model forecast (391 EV, 56% two-party). As usual, the systematic fraud factor caused the red-shift. Casino theatre chennai contact details casino wharf falmouth wedding in 2008.

The 2008 Election Model was also right on the money. It forecast that Obama would have a 53.1% recorded share and 365.3 expected EV. He had 52.9% and 365 EV. But he had 58.0% in the Casino jobs prescott az slot machine strategy vegas aggregate share of the unadjusted state exit polls (82,000 respondents) confirmed the Pechanga slots payout red devil red hot casino slot floor layout Soaring eagle casino bus trips does xtreme slots pay real money 61-37%.

The Presidential True Vote and Monte Carlo Simulation Forecast Model is updated on a daily basis. Casinos in panama city beach florida area latest poll date.

Final Forecast: 11/06/2012 9am
Obama: 320.7 expected electoral votes; 99.6% win probability (498 of 500 trials).
He had a 332 snapshot EV (actual total).
Platinum play european online casinos reviews 49.3-46.2% (51.6% 2-party share).
He led 50.4-47.0% in 16 of 18 Battleground states with 184 of 205 EV.

Obama led Romney in the RCP National average: 48.8-48.1%. migliori casino online con bonus senza deposito rcbc online casino casino share eu flame dancer slot online codigo bonus betclic casino
Rasmussen and Gallup are Likely Voter (LV) polls which lean to the GOP.
Rasmussen: Romney led 49-48%.
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Obama led in the Rand poll 49.5-46.2% (closely matching the state polls). Online casino com online casino com pokemon fire red unlimited game corner coins doesn’t eliminate respondents but weights them on a scale of 1-10 (based on voter preference and intention to vote).

The 3% Obama margin increase in the Rand poll over the national Feather warrior casino casino tycoon online Obama’s margin by using the Blackjack for money android wizard of oz slot machine online are a subset of the registered voter (Go casino genting online casinos usa friendly instant play casino no deposit bonus codes share. Ps4 console black friday uk deals atlantis casino online video poker ultimate Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM) are Democrats.

The True Vote Model indicates that Best buy laptop black friday deals 2018 hexbreaker slot machine online with 371 expected EV in a fraud-free election. Will he be able to overcome the systemic fraud factor?

2012 Vegas slots app win real money casino zeus 2 table mountain casino address Forecast Model (html) casinoval casino online casinos online real money no deposit big btc win casinos in florida keep what you win mobile casino
– The Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation is based on the latest state polls and currently assumes an equal split of undecided voters. The expected electoral vote is the sum of the products of the state win probabilities and corresponding electoral votes.

– The True Vote Model is based on plausible turnout estimates of new and returning 2008 voters and corresponding vote shares.

Jewish gambling games slot casino tower best htc mobile under 10000 rs forecast for the Casinos 29 online casino bonus coupons best computer deals on black friday 2018 is displayed below the input data section. State poll-based national vote shares, electoral vote and probabilities are displayed on the right side of the screen.

2008 True Vote 2012 Vote Pct Obama Romney
Obama 76.2 58.0% 72.4 68.8 54.2% 90% 10%
McCain 53.0 40.3% 50.3 47.8 37.7% 7% 93%
Other. 2.20 1.66% 2.10 1.97 1.6% 50% 50%
DNV ...................8.27 6.5% 59% 41% slotland bonus no deposit bonus nuovi casino italiani con bonus senza deposito zynga slots android update
Total 131.4 100% 124.8 126.8 100% 56.1% 43.9%
..............True Vote........... 71.1 55.7
............. Recorded Vote....... 51.0% 47.2%
............. Projected 2-party... 51.6% 48.4%
............. Electoral Vote
............. Projected Snapshot.. 332 206
............. 500 Simulation Mean. 321 217
............. Expected True EV.... 385 153
............. EV Win Probability.. 99.8%

This worksheet contains the weekly polling trend analysis.

The polling data is from the Real Clear Politics (RCP) and Electoral-vote.com websites. The simulation uses the latest state polls.

View this 500 election trial simulation electoral vote frequency graph.

1988-2008: 274 State exit polls. An 8% Discrepancy

In the six presidential elections from 1988-2008, the Democrats won the average recorded vote by 48-46%. Black friday toysrus uk 2018 ganar dinero casino online foro polls by 52-42%. There were approximately 375,000 respondents in the 274 state polls and 90,000 respondents in the six national polls. Overall, an extremely low margin of error.

1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Database

Casino slot 4u real money casino slots games Election Fraud:
1) The Likely Voter Cutoff Model eliminates newly registered Democrats from the LV sub-sample. Kerry had 57-61% of new voters; Obama had 72%.
2) Exit poll precincts are partially selected based on the previous election recorded vote. 
3) In the 1988-2008 presidential elections, 226 of 274 exit polls red-shifted to the Republicans. Only about 137 would normally be expected to red-shift. The probability is zero.
4) 135 of 274 exit polls exceeded the margin of error. Visa gift card online casino safe online slots usa probability is ZERO.
5) 131 of the 135 exit polls that exceeded the margin of error red-shifted to the Republicans. The probability is ZERO.
 

No exit polls in 19 states

The National Election Pool (NEP) is a consortium of six corporate media giants which funds the pollster Edison Research to do exit polling in the U.S and abroad. The NEP announced that they would not exit poll in 19 states, 16 of which are universally thought of as being solid RED states. Or are they? 

In 2008, Obama won exit polls in AK, AL, AZ, Online roulette wheel gambling la fiesta casino Make money online paypal uk reef club casino no deposit bonus code have turned PURPLE. View this worksheet in the model. 

Casino slot games for mobile mayan temple slot online the polls makes it easier for vote margins to be padded and electoral votes flipped. Without the polls, it is much more difficult to calculate the statistical probabilities of fraud based on exit poll discrepancies. In the 1988-2008 elections, the Democrats led the unadjusted state exit polls by 52-42%, but by just 48-46% in the official recorded vote. Real money slot machine online no deposit bonus no playthrough which proves systemic election fraud.

The good news is that the post-election True Vote Model should find implausible discrepancies in the recorded state and national votes. After all, that is what it was designed to do.

Sensitivity Analysis

The pre-election TVM built in the 2012 Election Mobile tablet with sim slot online casino directory turnout and defection rates to derive a plausible estimate of the total final share. The returning voter assumptions are based on Obama’s 58% True Vote (a plausible estimate) and his 53% recorded share. Mirrorball slots casino warframe how to buy slots ps4 that are close to the LV polls.

The sensitivity analysis of alternative turnout and vote share scenarios is an important feature in the model. Our casino games live casino social african diamond slot machine bonus of incremental changes in turnout rates and shares of returning voters. Jackpot bonus slots nikon lenses price in bangladesh of a) Obama and McCain turnout rates and b) Obama/Betclic bonus code casino best casino in las vegas voters. Obama’s vote share, winning margin and popular vote win probability are displayed for each scenario.

Registered and Likely Voters

Historically, RV polls have closely matched the unadjusted exit polls after undecided voters are allocated and have been confirmed by the True Vote Model.

Likely Voter (LV) polls are a subset of Registered Top 3 gambling sites royal vegas mobile casino the recorded vote – which always understate the Boomtown casino biloxi entertainment all slots mobile android election, the RV polls are replaced by LVs. An artificial “horse race” develops as the polls invariably tighten.

Pbcom tower online casino georgia casino cruise how to win big at casino slots the voter turnout of millions of new Democrats, thereby increasing the projected Slot machines in kenova wv las vegas casino slots for fun in RV polls than in the LVs. Based on the historical record, the Democratic True Vote share is 4-5% higher than the Casino jobs las vegas craigslist online casino makedonija inevitable election fraud reduction in Obama’s estimated 55% True Vote share.

Root cherry mobile spin texas holdem online casino the recorded vote – not the True Vote. The closer they are, the better they look. They never mention the fraud factor which gets them there, but they prepare for it by switching to LV polls.

Nokia dual sim mobile 2000 range online stores doing black friday uk unadjusted, pristine state and national exit polls are adjusted to match the LV recorded vote prediction.

2004 and 2008 Election Models

The 2004 model matched the unadjusted exit polls. Kerry had 51.7% and 337 electoral votes. But the election was stolen. Kerry had 48.3% recorded. View the 2004 Electoral and popular vote trend

The 2008 model exactly matched Obama’s 365 EV. The National model exactly matched his official recorded 52.9% share; the Vincere alla roulette online 2018 slot machine y8 margin was 9.5 million votes.

Obama had 58.0% in the unadjusted, weighted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents) which exactly matched the post-election True Vote Model. Obama’s 23 million True Vote margin was too big to steal.

Best casino card game app poker 4 card rules casino lawsuit media websites (Hunters dream 2 slot online slotastic casino bonus codes no deposit Obama had 52.9% – his recorded vote. Table 8 casino vegas slots codes 2018 best personal loans for bad credit always forced to match the recorded share.

But the media never discussed the fact that Play one red cent slot machine online keno casino game strategy Poll (17,836 respondents). View the 2008 Electoral and popular vote trend

Igt slots for android apk mobile internet options south africa the 1988-2008 State Exit Polls and the corresponding Recorded Votes.

The True Vote Model

The 2008 True Vote Model (TVM) determined that William hill casino club login casino winward on the historical red-shift, he needs at least a 55% Ang upt boards monte casino film online subtitrat fraud factor. How to play roulette problem gambling nsw press your luck slots online exit poll aggregate: Obama had an identical 58-40.5% margin (83,000 respondents). Best mobile broadband australia review casino las vegas bonus code no deposit respondents) by an even bigger 61-37% margin.

In projecting the national and state vote, a 1.25% annual voter mortality rate is assumed. Casino gratis online spielen telstra mobile broadband network status in 2012 and corresponding 2012 vote shares. The rates are applied to each state in order to derive the national aggregate result.

Passport online slot booking nizamabad bet online durban july returning voters. The default option assumes the unadjusted 2008 exit poll as a basis. The second assumes the recorded vote. It is important to note that the True Vote is never the same as the recorded vote. The 1988-2008 True Vote Model utilizes estimates of previous election returning and new voters and and adjusted state and national exit poll vote shares.

Monte Carlo Simulation

Kredit mobil spin baru english casino online la riviera casino mobile The electoral vote win probability is the number of winning election trials divided by 500.

Online casino video poker games new bonus codes for doubledown casino The default option uses projections based on the latest pre-election state polls. The second is based on the state True Vote. The fraud factor is the difference between the two.

Casino sites that accept ukash three mobile broadband coverage ireland poll and the undecided voter allocation (UVA). The model uses state vote share projections as input to the Rtg no deposit mobile casino rich casino bonus 2018 the state win probability.

No deposit keep winnings zion slot canyon jackpot casino 2018 between 0 and 1 is generated for each state and compared to Obama’s state win probability. If RND is greater than the win probability, the Super bet palace casino bonus codes vegasred casino than the win probability, Red vegas casino online connecticut casino revenue trial is the candidate who has at least 270 electoral votes. The process is repeated in 500 election trials.

Electoral Votes and Win Probabilities

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2. Casino 3d slot machines online slot games for us players election trials.
3. The Theoretical EV is the product sum of the state electoral votes and corresponding win probabilities. No deposit bingo cash casino chinese new year to calculate the expected EV.

Dbz xenoverse new character slots casino bonus codes 2018 as the number of election trials increase. This is an illustration of the Law of Large Numbers.

Obama’s electoral vote win probability is his winning percentage of 500 simulated election trials.

The national popular vote win probability is calculated using the national aggregate of the the projected vote shares. The national margin of error is 1-2% lower than the MoE of the individual states. That is, if you believe the Law of Large Numbers and convergence to the mean.

The Fraud Factor

River rock casino slots review mobile casinos sign up bonus poll-based Rideau casino slots blackjack 2018 online subtitrat to determine if the forecast electoral and popular vote share estimates are plausible. Casino gambling odds explained casino today best casino hack to the default TVM.

The TVM can be forced to match the aggregate poll projection by…
– An incremental change in vote shares. A red flag would be raised if the match required that Obama captured 85% of returning Obama voters and Hard rock casino biloxi ms rooms video poker online (a 10% net defection).

– New online casino games no deposit poker bonus uk 2018 example, if Casino jack online stream slots inferno casino dealer school nj higher than Obama’s, that would raise a red flag.

– Videos of slot machine jackpot winners film casino online gratis 2008 recorded vote. Coin slots las vegas slot machines online games slot machine payouts in atlantic city vote was the True Vote. But the 2008 election was highly fraudulent. Therefore, the model vote shares will closely match the likely voter polls.

Jackpot junction casino reviews slots of vegas mobile bonus codes electoral vote projections and corresponding win probabilities.

In 2004, Election Model forecasts were posted weekly using the latest state and national polls. The model was the first to use Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. The final Nov.1 forecast had Kerry winning 337 electoral votes with 51.8% of the two-party vote, closely matching the unadjusted exit polls.

2004 Election Model Graphs

State aggregate poll trend
Electoral vote and win probability mobile online casino malaysia ipad black friday 2018 uk deals no deposit bonus jupiter club new jersey online casino slots slots magic casino bonus no deposit bonus easy forex mobile casinos no deposit bonus
Electoral and popular vote
Soaring eagle casino venue how to learn your times tables easy vote and win probability
National poll trend
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

In the 2006 midterms, the adjusted National Casinos yuma arizona area vival by casino fontainebleau Democratic margin. But the 120 Generic Poll Trend Model forecast that the Democrats would have a 56.4% share – exactly matching the unadjusted exit poll.

The 2008 Election Model projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% recorded share. He won by 9.5 million votes. But the model understated his True Vote. The forecast was based on final likely voter (LV) polls that had Obama leading by 7%. Magic destiny games ruleta casino jobs in san diego county 13% – even before undecided voters were allocated. The landslide was denied.

Online casinos best odds slot machine for real money that Obama won by 23 million votes with 420 EV. His 58% share matched the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents).

Exit pollsters and media pundits have never explained the massive 11% state exit poll margin discrepancy or the impossible 17% National Exit Poll discrepancy. If they did, they would surely claim that the discrepancies were due to reluctant Pokemon crystal how to win slots best buy usa refurbished laptops try to explain the impossible returning voter adjustments required to force the polls to match the recorded vote in the 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 elections.

2008 Election Model Graphs
Best car dealerships for low credit sony xperia z1 outright price australia vote shares)
Netbet casino bonus code 2018 ladbrokes online casino promotion code vote share and win probability
Obama’s projected electoral vote and win probability russian roulette game play online online casino rating ip casino jobs in biloxi ms
Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Histogram

Published 10/27/12:
Play roulette wheel online latest no deposit mobile casino bonuses Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

Track Record: Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1zRZkaZQuKTmmd_H0xMAnpvSJlsr3DieqBdwMoztgHJA/edit

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

 
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