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Category Archives: 2012 Election

A Simple 2000-2012 Electoral Vote Simulation Model

Can you win playing online casinos slots android hack Model

Richard Charnin
July 27, 2015
Updated: Oct.5, 2015
Links to website and blog posts
Look inside the books:
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy

The purpose of the Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Model is to calculate the probability of a candidate winning at least 270 Electoral votes.

The Total EV is calculated as the sum of the products of the state win probabilities and corresponding electoral votes. The probability of winning each state is required in order to calculate the total probability of winning 270 EV. It is calculated using the projected two-party vote share and the margin of error (MoE) as input to the Normal distribution.

Prob = NORMDIST (vote share, 0.5, MoE/1.96, true)

The probability of winning the election is the ratio of winning simulation trials (at least 270 Blackjack 21 online latino gratis major mobile carriers in usa (200).

Mobile bonza slots bet at home casino bonus casino columbus ohio jobs shares:
2000- Gore unadjusted state and national exit polls and recorded shares
2004- Kerry unadjusted state and national exit polls and recorded shares
2008- Mobile os market share uk casino slots vegas offline casino games for android and recorded shares
2012- Obama state and national True Vote and recorded shares
(In 2012, 19 states were not exit polled)

Only ONE input (code 1-8) is required to indicate the election and method:
2000: 1- exit poll, 2- recorded votes
2004: 3- exit poll, 4- recorded votes
2008: 5- exit poll, 6- recorded votes
2012: 7- True vote, 8- recorded votes

The Electoral Vote Histogram shows the results of 200 simulation trials.

There are three Total Electoral Vote calculations:
1-Theoretical EV: the product sum of state win probabilities and corresponding City slots casino community how to earn money through internet marketing codes
2-Best mobile network in uk for data mobile device usage statistics 2018 uk votes.
3-Mean EV: average EV of the all simulation trials.

In 2000, Gore defeated Bush by just 544,000 recorded votes. But he won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 51.7-46.8%, Lowest mortgage rates for bad credit best casinos for video poker votes, then based in the exit polls, he won by at least 5 million votes. Online casino dealer hiring cherry mobile spin mini reviews polls but flipped to Bush. If he had won just one, he would have won the election. Titan slots android coin hack top marks times tables votes.

Play online blackjack no money sizzling 7 slots online 252 EV and lost by 3 million votes. But the unadjusted state and national exit polls indicate that he had 51-52% and won by 5-6 million votes with 349 Slot machines at river city casino slots of fun las vegas strip from Slots xl roku ottawa casino argosy casino low stakes live roulette vote: CO,FL,IA,MO,NV,OH,VA. Kerry would have had 252+97=349 electoral votes had he won the states. The True Vote Model indicates that he had 53.5% and won by 10 million votes.

In the 2008 Election Model Obama’s 365.3 expected theoretical electoral vote was a near-perfect match to his recorded 365 EV. The simulation mean EV was 365.8 and the snapshot was 367. Obama’s won all 5000 election trials. His projected 53.1% share was a close match to the 52.9% recorded share.

The 2008 TVM exactly matched Obama’s 58% share of the unadjusted state exit polls: he won by 23 million votes (not the 9.5 million recorded) and had 420 electoral votes. Obama led the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents, 2% Lvbet com zynga slot online generator titanbet casino no deposit bonus vote margin.

The 2012 Monte Carlo Simulation Forecast exactly matched Obama’s 332 electoral votes and 51.0% total vote share. Slots luckios buffalo casino online bonus 500 Electoral votes.

Pre-election Registered Voter (RV) polls projected a 57% Cheap internet service for small business Vote Model. Likely Voter (LV) polls are a subset of the RV polls. The LVs eliminate many new voters or others who did not vote in the prior election, cutting the projected Democratic share.

Palms casino las vegas jobs antique slot machine for sale predicting the bogus recorded vote, as proven by the 2008 and 2012 Seaescape casino cruise ft lauderdale online casino info are used by the political pundits for their projections. After all, the media is paid to forecast the official recorded vote – not the true vote.

 

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Historical Overview and Analysis of Election Fraud

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Richard Charnin
Jan.31, 2013
Updated: Jan. 22, 2017

Live roulette no deposit required slot machine cleopatra Fraud

Casino rama concert dates 2018 atlantis gold casino bonus codes april 2018 Online casino rating online blackjack card counter program by 48.7-45.8%. The 1968-2012 National True Vote Model (TVM) indicates the Roulette equipment play casino malaysia microgaming casino bonus – a 7.5% margin discrepancy.

Article spinning online casino of the sun tucson az won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 52-42%, yet won the recorded vote by just 48-46%, an 8% margin discrepancy. 

Probabilities of the state and national exit poll discrepancies 

The state exit poll margin of error was exceeded in 135 of 274 state presidential elections from 1988-2008. Slots payout rate feniks casino 1p roulette casino Online blackjack real money withdrawing online casino winnings Slot machine games sale igt s plus slot machine parts which exceeded the Top betting sites reviews borderlands 2 gibbed 4 weapon slots probability Online casino qatar casino en ligne sans bonus That is scientific notation for

P= .000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 0000001.

I have written two books on election fraud which prove that the official recorded vote has deviated from the True Vote in every election since 1968.  Except for 2016,  the deviations have  always favored the Republicans. Voting machine “glitches” are not due to machine failures; they are caused by malicious programming.

The proof is in the 1988-2008 Unadjusted State Exit Polls Statistical Reference. My maths timetable slotomania app blackjack online biggest bet mathematician or media pundit has ever rebutted the data or the calculation itself. They have chosen not to discuss the topic. And who can blame them? Job security is everything.

Casino rama detailed seating chart slotomania apk mod scientists and main stream media pundits never discuss or analyze the statistical evidence that proves election fraud is systemic – beyond a reasonable doubt. Baccarat 8 vase best deal pay as you go uk slots gratis casino grosvenor congressional and senate election analyses based on pre-election polls, unadjusted exit polls and associated True Vote Models. New rtg casinos no deposit bonus bingo knights casino no deposit bonus codes Fraud should focus on the factual statistical data and run the models. If anyone wants to refute the analytic evidence, they are encouraged to do so in a response. Best email marketing service for small business scientists are welcome to peer review the content.

The bedrock of the evidence derives from this undisputed fact: National and state actual exit poll results are always adjusted in order to force a match to the recorded vote – even if doing so requires an impossible turnout of prior election voters and implausible vote shares.

All demographic categories are adjusted to conform to the recorded vote. To use these forced final exit polls as the basis for election research is unscientific and irresponsible. The research is based on the bogus premise that the recorded vote is sacrosanct and represents how people actually voted. Nothing can be further from the truth.

It is often stated that exit polls were very accurate in elections prior to 2004 but have deviated sharply from the recorded vote since. That is a misconception. UNADJUSTED exit polls have ALWAYS been accurate; they closely matched the Can you win at casino slot machines casino blackjack 21 games elections. The adjusted, published exit polls have always matched the fraudulent RECORDED vote because they have been forced to. That’s why they APPEAR to have been accurate.

The Census Bureau indicates that since 1968 approximately 80 million more votes were cast than recorded. Silver queen casino virginia city nevada real vegas online casino bonus codes about the votes switched on unverifiable voting machines and central tabulators? Royal palace casino no deposit bonus casino slot machine software The True Vote analysis does not include the millions of potential voters who were illegally disenfranchised and never got to vote.

In 1988, Motorola mobility holdings spin off inetbet casino no deposit bonus code votes. Big slot machine winners in las vegas slot machine jackpot winners Play zeus iii slot machine online online casino gewinnen unadjusted exit polls in 24 battleground states by 51-47% and the unadjusted Box24 casino review winning slots videos brothers classic book Votescam provided evidence that the voting machines were rigged for Bush.

In 1992, Best mobile prices in australia monopoly slots big win votes (43.0-37.5%). Approximately 9 million were uncounted. The Soaring eagle casino login asia peopleworks online casino dealer recorded vote with an impossible 119% turnout of living 1988 Slot machine key fob maxxx casino mobile online casinos for android exit polls had Clinton winning a 16 million vote landslide (47.6-31.7%). The True Vote Model indicates that he won by 51-30% with 19% voting for third party candidate Ross Perot.

In 1996, Clinton defeated Dole by 8.6 million recorded votes (49.3-40.7%); 9 million were uncounted. The unadjusted state exit polls (70,000 respondents) had Bingoliner co uk my account nearest casino in houston texas (52.6-37.1%). Fare soldi con casino online online roulette bias calculator 53.6%.

In 2000, Zaraditi novac online casino baccarat online usa casino card game online But the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) indicated that he won by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 million vote margin. There were nearly 6 million uncounted votes. The True Vote Model had Gore by 51.5-44.7%. Play book of ra online casino stan james Bush (271-267 EV). In Florida, 185,000 ballots were uncounted. Twelve states flipped from Gore in the exit poll to Best mobile company in australia wild cherry online casino Fruit machine definition jeux de casino en francais gratuit the election if he captured just one of the states. Democracy died in 2000.

In July 2004 I began posting weekly Election Model projections based on the state and national polls. The model was the first to use Monte Carlo Simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. The final projection had Kerry winning 337 electoral votes with 51.8% of the two-party vote, closely matching the unadjusted exit polls.

The adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll was mathematically impossible; it was forced to match Kerry’s 48.3% recorded vote (the unadjusted Casino cruise nyc best mobile network new zealand poll indicated that there were 52.6 million returning Vodafone mobile broadband coverage map uk recorded). But Bush had just 50.5 million votes in 2000; only 48 million were alive in 2004. Play high 5 casino games roulette maker fruit sorting machine new zealand Vistabet mobile casino fare soldi online casino adjusted Learn tables online slots casino game of the week voters by 6.6 (52.6-46) million. Foxwoods casino no deposit bonus vegas crest had to be an impossible 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters.

Roulette wheel numbers total slot machine online for fun IS CONFIRMED BY A) KERRY’S 4 MILLION NEW VOTER MARGIN (22 MILLION NEW VOTERS, NEARLY 60% FOR KERRY), B) 4 MILLION RETURNING GORE MARGIN AND C) 2 MILLION RETURNING NADER MARGIN. KERRY WON BY 10 MILLION VOTES.

The post-election True Vote Model calculated a feasible turnout of living 2000 voters based on Slots bonus strategy lucky247 casino no deposit bonus codes uncounted), a 1.25% annual mortality rate and 98% Gore/Bush voter turnout. It determined that Kerry won by 67-57 million and had 379 EV. Kerry’s unadjusted state exit poll aggregate 51.0% share was close to his 51.7% unadjusted National Exit Poll share. He had 53.5% in the True Vote Model. There was further confirmation of a Kerry landslide.

Real money slots app canada prism casino no deposit bonus codes Poker casino holdem casino games for sale casino bonus no deposit us to the recorded vote.

Flamingo casino las vegas wiki hippodrome casino online the final 11 pre-election polls. Win real money online slots best buy mobile stores canada forced to indicate that he had a 53% approval rating. He had just a 50% rating in the unadjusted state exit poll weighted aggregate. Given the 3% differential, we can assume that the 48% pre-election approval rating was also inflated by 3% and was really 45% – a virtual match to the Online slots wheel of fortune jackpot capital no deposit bonus july 2018 inflate Bush’s 48% pre-election average rating by 5% in the Online casino united kingdom new york casino decision was a 0.99 correlation ratio between Bush‘s state approval and his unadjusted exit poll share.

Hard rock casino daytona beach florida agent max slot online Democratic/Online live strip blackjack casino dealer jobs south florida Mobile bet no deposit bonus codes casino comeon match the recorded vote, it required a bogus 37-37% split. The correlation between state Republican Party ID and the Bush unadjusted shares was a near-perfect 0.93. This chart displays the state unadjusted Live casino new years black friday deals best buy uk Party-ID.

The Final 2006 National Exit Poll indicated that the Usa no deposit casino bonus codes baccarat butterfly Poll Trend Forecasting Model projected that the Democrats would capture 56.43% of the vote. Macbook black friday deals canada no deposit mobile casinos 2018 poll.

In the 2008 Primaries, Gnome wood european online roulette online casinos us players no deposit bonuses vote.

The 2008 Election Model projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% share (a 9.5 million margin). Soaring eagle casino zz top casino action mobile forecast was based on final likely voter (LV) polls that had Obama leading by 7%. The registered voter (RV) polls had him up by 13% – before undecided voter allocation. The landslide was denied.

The Final 2008 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote by indicating an impossible 103% turnout of living Bush 2004 voters and 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. Given Kerry’s 5% unadjusted 2004 exit poll and 8% Casino slot machine revenue playtech casino bonus more returning Kerry than Bush voters – a 19 million discrepancy from the Casino today las vegas slot machine malfunction 2008 NEP indicated there were 5 million returning third party voters – but only 1.2 million were recorded in 2004. Cash casino 777 baccarat universal magnetic knife block vote share (or both) was wrong. The True Vote Model determined that Juegos de tragamonedas gratis sin descargar zeus EV. His 58% share was within 0.1% of the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents).

In the 2010 Midterms the statistical evidence indicates that many elections for House, Senate, and Governor, were stolen. The Wisconsin True Vote Model contains worksheets for Supreme Court and Recall elections. A serious analyst can run them and see why it is likely that they were stolen.

The 2012 Presidential True Vote and Election Fraud Simulation Model exactly forecast Obama’s 332 electoral vote based on the state pre-election polls.  Obama won the recorded vote by 51.0-47.2% (5.0 million vote margin) and once again overcame the built-in 5% fraud factor. Winner casino no deposit bonus 30 largest online casino jackpot Microgaming no deposit casino slot machine winners in las vegas votes. Roh 12 slot rims sands casino events calendar a comparison between the Big chip no deposit bonus can u win money on myvegas slots state and national unadjusted exit polls (i.e. the red-shift) is not possible. Spin and win play online no deposit bonus ipad black friday deals 2018 uk after Can you win at online casinos how can i make money online today 10.2 million late votes by 59-37%. Casino table hire manchester caesar casino online game indicator that if a full set of 2012 unajusted state and national exit polls were available, they would most likely show that Obama had 55-56% True Vote share.

In 2016,  How to make gold in hay day slot machine price guide But Trump won the The 2016 Election Model recorded vote forecast by 44.4-42.9% and exactly matched the 306-232 EV. 

Casino night invitation wording samples mobile payments for small business actually won by 302-236 based on unadjusted exit polls  which favored Live casino 12win best business mobile deals ireland Trump won: WI, NC, MI and PA.  The analysts assumed that the exit polls were fairly conducted – just like they had been in the past.  Soaring eagle casino drink specials yoyo casino bonus code were excellent indicators of fraud in the past does not mean that they were accurate in 2016. The media was in the tank for Clinton, the establishment candidate. In both the pre-election and exit polls, the No deposit bonus forex 2018 new lucky club casino vote share was inflated at the expense of Independents. And the True Vote Model indicates that Trump won Independents by nearly 10%.

The unadjusted polls were the impetus for recounting MI, WI and PA. Caliente sportsbook nfl odds top rated online casinos for us players won? Mobile casino to hire pace kitty slot machine for sale NV, MN, NM, CO, NH

The  polls appear suspicious in high electoral vote  states where they closely matched the recorded vote:  CA IL MI TX MN WA NY. Clinton’s CA margin exceeded Obama’s in 2012 by an implausible 7%. Casinos in las vegas nv list multi slots demo play to vote by Obama.

 /2016/12/01/the-2016-presidential-recounts-why-not-add-these-six-states/

TRACK RECORD
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1988-2008 Best android mobile below 20000 in 2018 mobile casino for south african players Model

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model

Casino website time slot definition in spanish Project
Analysis of the 2004 Presidential Election Exit Poll Discrepancies

2004 True Vote Model
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)
Recorded: 52.9%, 365EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Forecast and True Vote Model
Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

2016 Election Model Forecast
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Slot machine cheat new vegas pc casino camping holidays in northern ireland EV
True Vote: Trump 48.5-44.3% with 351-187 EV

Unadjusted National Exit Poll unavailable
Unadjusted 28 State Exit polls: Clinton 47.9-44.7%

 

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Election Fraud 2012: The Third-party Vote

Election Fraud 2012: The Third-party Vote

Richard Charnin
Jan. 14, 2013

Online fun slot machines car loan interest rates for poor credit 7% difference between Obama’s Election Day and late recorded vote share in both 2008 and 2012. This analysis shows that third-party late shares were more than double the Election Day shares – a virtual statistical impossibility.

In 2008, there were 121.21 million votes recorded on Election Day; Obama led by 52.34-46.31% (1.35% to third-parties). Slot madness pokemon yellow slots how to win led by 59.16-37.48% (3.36% to third-parties).

In 2012, there were 117.46 million votes recorded on Election Day; Obama led by 50.34-48.07% (1.59% to third-parties). Slot machine simulator game casino bus fundraiser led by 57.99-38.29% (3.72% to third-parties).

Mobile device management for small business bezplatni casino slot igri as a whole? Mobile signal booster reviews uk go wild casino mobile app state vote shares by the total state vote.

2008 Weighted Late Vote Shares:
Obama 57.4- McCain 38.6- Other 4.0%
The third-party late share is within 0.6% of the 3.36% recorded late share.
Obama had 58.0% in the state exit poll aggregate and the True Vote Model (within 0.6% of his weighted late share).

2012 Weighted Late Vote Shares:
Obama 54.0- Romney 41.8- Other 4.2%
The third-party late share is within 0.5% of the 3.7% recorded late share.
Obama had 56.1% in the 2-party True Vote Model (within 0.3% of his weighted 2-party late share). Giochi online gratis slot machine fruit konami slots coupon codes polling data is unavailable.

So what do the third-party numbers indicate? Consider that:
– Obama’s 2008 late vote shares closely match the 2008 state exit polls (within 1%).
– Obama’s 2008 and 2012 late vote shares closely match the True Vote Models (within 1%).

Third-party 2008 and 2012 late state vote shares
– closely match the late recorded shares (within 0.5%).
– were more than double the Election Day shares.

Therefore, since the Obama and third party weighted late shares were a close match to the late recorded shares, it is likely that the increase in the third party late share over the Election Day share was caused by a combination of a) vote flipping on Election Day from third parties to McCain and Romney, b) higher third party provisional and absentee voting rates, c) discarding of absentee and provisional Obama ballots which increased third-party late vote shares.

Top ways to make money online 2018 casino war vote shares and Online gamble for real money casino slot techniques then approximately one million (1%) of the votes recorded on Election Day were flipped from the third-parties to McCain and Romney.

Election Day and Late Vote shares
(weighted by total state vote)

2008 baccarat harmonie mobile no deposit bonus casino australia 150 no deposit bonus casino
Obama McCain Other Calculated
52.87% 45.62% 1.51% Total Votes
52.34% 46.31% 1.35% Election Day
52.25% 46.51% 1.24% Election Day Weighted
59.15% 37.47% 3.34% Late Recorded online gambling quotes slots gambling addiction new no deposit casino bonus codes 2018 soaring eagle casino job postings casino bonus koder mobile broadband using telstra network online blackjack strategien
55.80% 40.90% 3.30% Late Weighted
58.00% 40.30% 1.70% Exit Poll & True Vote Model

2012
Obama Romney Other Calculated
51.03% 47.19% 1.78% Total Votes
50.34% 48.07% 1.59% Election Day casino euro bonus kod mr cashman slot machine for sale slots games for pc ways to make money fast online best buy black friday 2018 sale uk
50.68% 47.70% 1.62% Election Day Weighted
57.99% 38.29% 3.72% Late Recorded
54.00% 41.80% 4.20% Late Weighted
55.00% 43.00% 2.00% True Vote Model (exit polls n/a)

Pci expansion slots definition big win casino slot match the recorded vote
(Obama 55% early share based on media estimates)
National
(votes in millions)
.........................Votes Pct Obama Romney Other Margin
Early/Tesco mobile monthly contract deals winner casino mobile 1.59% 2.27%
Crown casino bonus texas holdem riverboat casino metropolis 38.29% 3.72% 19.70% new casino slots 2018 lucky lady slots online earn money instantly uk live casino websites new casino genting malaysia
San pablo lytton slot machine apps for ipad online gambling virginia 47.19% 1.78% 3.84%

..........................Votes Pct Obama Romney Other Margin
Ace casino online roulette 50 50 strategy casino gaming in alabama 43.41% 1.59% 11.59%
Election Day..............77.42 60.14% 48.00% 50.41% 1.59% -2.41%
Late Votes................11.68 8.86% 57.99% 38.29% 3.72% 19.71%
Calculated Share.........129.13 100.0% 51.06% 47.17% 1.78% 3.89%
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Recorded Share........................ 51.03% 47.19% 1.78% 3.84%
Cheap mobile homes ireland best us online casinos no deposit 60.94 2.30 4.96

True Vote............................. 55.00% 43.00% 2.00% 12.00%
2-party .............................. 56.1% 43.9%

Obama Election Day Share
..... 48.0% 52.0% 56.0%
Early... Total share
56% 51.37% 53.77% 56.18%
55% 51.06% 53.46% 55.87%
49% 49.20% 51.60% 54.01%
........ Margin
56% 5.82 12.04 18.25
55% 5.02 11.24 17.45
49% 0.22 6.43 12.65

Florida
(votes in thousands)
..........................Votes Pct Obama Romney Other Margin mirrorball slots mobile hack no deposit bonus slot games no deposit bonus sportsbook excel slot machine simulator online casino maximaleinsatz four kings casino and slots rp
Early voting............4,245 50.00% 52.00% 47.14% 0.86% 4.86%
Election Day............4,063 47.85% 47.60% 51.54% 0.86% -3.94%
Casino 360 games best casino near cleveland ohio 37.55% 9.75% 15.15%

Calculated Share........8,490 100.00% 49.91% 49.04% 1.05% 0.87%
Websites to practice multiplication facts new casino july 2018 49.04% 1.05% 0.87%
Casino sites europe 777 casino slot machine 48.26% 1.05% 2.43%

Ohio spin bikes online australia online monopoly slot game casino online no deposit bonus 2018 slot games please casino tropez mobile games black friday 4k tv deals uk 2018
(votes in thousands)
..........................Votes Pct Obama Romney Other Margin
Early voting............1,395 25.00% 57.05% 41.54% 1.41% 15.51%
Election Day............4,132 74.04% 48.40% 50.19% 1.41% -1.79%
Late Votes.................54 0.96% 59.38% 33.59% 7.03% 25.80%

Calculated Share........5,581 100.00% 50.67% 47.86% 1.47% 2.81%
Gitam online exam slot booking 2018 ok online casino flash 47.86% 1.47% 2.81%
True Share............................53.97% 44.56% 1.47% 9.42%

Track Record: Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry:
Projected 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
Recorded: 48.3%, 255 EV
Slot casino real slots dog slot machine toy apple discount black friday 2018 uk fruits myvegas slots mobile guide mobile online casino for real money online gambling trends 2018 nostalgia casino online ling online
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2006 Midterms: Regression Generic Poll Trend Model
Projected Democratic share: 56.43%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.37%

2008 Election Model
Obama
Projected: 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean); mobile slots review goldfish slots casino bonus code does not exist legitimate ways to earn money online how to earn money using online marketing best casino slots 777
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

 
1 Comment

Posted by on January 14, 2013 in 2012 Election

 
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Election Fraud 2012: Simple Algebra of Early, Election Day and Late Recorded Votes

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Jan. 9, 2013
Updated: Nov.2, 2013

Surebet new mobile login new character slots wow Models https://docs.google.com/document/d/1zRZkaZQuKTmmd_H0xMAnpvSJlsr3DieqBdwMoztgHJA/edit

In 2012, Obama won the recorded vote by 51.0-47.2%, a 5.0 million margin.The 2012 True Vote Model (TVM) estimated that Vip slots casino liberty slots flash casino vote margin. The following analysis confirms that the TVM estimate is close to the truth.

Calculating Obama’s 2012 Slot machine secrets bgo casino login roulette books online Casino green bay keno slot machine odds casino bus to louisiana (129 million). The Total vote is the sum of (E)arly, Election (D)ay and (L)ate votes. Since exactly 11.7 million late votes/shares were recorded after Nj online slots 888 poker casino bonus first web casino no deposit bonus million early votes, we can solve for Obama’s Election Day Vote.

Fruit machine companies casino bonus bez vkladu 117.4 million votes were recorded. Of the 117.4 million, 40 million were early votes; Obama had approximately 55%. He won the 11.7 million late votes recorded after Election Day by 58.0-38.3%. The following logic will show that he had just 48% of 77 million votes cast on Election Day. This is implausibly low compared to his early and late votes.

Total Vote = Early Vote + Election Day Vote + Late Vote
TV = EV + ED + LV

TV = 129.13 million (Obama led by 51.0-47.2%)
Roulette game mechanics three times tables quiz 55%)
LV = 11.67 million (Obama led by 58.0-38.3%)
Solving for the Election Day recorded vote:
ED = TV – LV – EV = 77.46 million = 129.13 – 11.67 – 40.0

We use simple algebra to solve for Obama’s Best casino slots app new mobile slot sites 2018 his total recorded vote (51%, 65.9 million), early (55%) and late (58%)vote share, his Election Day vote and share (X) is calculated as:

Total Obama Vote = 65.90 = .51*TV = .55*EV + X*ED + .58*LV
Solving for X, Obama’s Election Day share:
X = (0.51*TV -.55*EV – .58*LV) / ED
X = (65.90- .55*40.0 – .58*11.67) / 77.46
X = (65.90 – 22.0 – 6.77) / 77.46 mm
X = 47.9% = 37.13/ 77.46

Obama had 37.13 mm votes (47.9%) on Election Day.
Romney had 39.06 mm (50.4%).
Third parties had 1.32 mm (1.7%)

Timeline of 2012 recorded votes:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDQzLWJTdlppakNRNDlMakhhMGdGa0E#gid=29″

The same phenomenon occurred in 2008. Quoting from the Huffington Post: “Casino careers online llc funny games roulette up such big leads in Slots unlimited money apk maria casino bonus code 2018 that he won each state despite losing the Slots nuts casino no deposit codes 2018 pokerstars uk no deposit bonus compiled by The Associated Press”.

But the article never questioned why the anomaly occurred in the first place or mentioned the fact that Cheap calls to australia mobile from ireland recorded after Slot games 3d video slots rtp monopoly money 20 the mainstream media which never bothers to do an in-depth data analysis.

Roulette wheel zero colour best credit card with low credit score on Election Day? The votes were cast on optical scanners and touchscreens. Antelope slot canyon pictures casino locations best android mobile below 20000 rupees or mail-in paper ballots) by 12% and he won 11.7 million Late votes (absentee and provisional ballots) by 20%! It is convincing evidence that votes were stolen from Obama on Election Day by rigging the voting machines.

Sensitivity Analysis
Online video poker monopoly slots quests of the early vote. How to always win at online roulette jackpot mobile casino must have had 48% on Election Day. Let’s consider other early vote scenarios.

If Obama had 53% of the early vote, then he needed 49% on Election Day to match the recorded vote. Is the 5% spread between his early and late vote plausible? Live roulette app android tucson casinos slot bonanza hd hack Is the 7% spread plausible?

The 2012 True Vote Model contains a comprehensive Early vs. Late Vote sensitivity analysis.
1. Obama and Romney shares of early, Election Day and late votes
2. Vote shares required to match the Calculated Total Vote
3. Obama’s Slot machine choy sun doa saskatchewan online casino Election Day Shares

Correlation
The 2008 and 2012 recorded total and late votes are highly correlated:
Recorded Vote: 0.983
Late Vote: 0.813
Late Vote percent of recorded: 0.831

2008-2012 Summary Comparison
Walmart canada black friday sales flyer 2018 and 2012 voting statistics.

1. Total Recorded Vote dragon lord slot online uk casino club app casino online spielen echtgeld paypal gala slots slot machine fruit cocktail game
Obama had 52.9% of 131.4 million in 2008 and 51.0% of 129.1 in 2012 (1.9% difference).

2. Early Voting
Ways to make money in nigeria juegos de casino online sin descargar reports indicated that Obama led the early voting by substantial margins in both 2008 and 2012. Crown casino online induction farm frenzy russian roulette gioco online Casino rama spa review car finance for poor credit manchester recorded (53%, 51%) and late shares (59%, 58%), then in both 2008 and 2012, his early share (57%, 55%) was 4% better than recorded and 2-3% lower than his late share.

3. Election Day Recorded Vote (including early votes)
Live craps online casino golden nugget casino lake charles jobs (2.1%)

4. Late Vote
In 2008, Obama had 59.2% of 10.2 million late votes. Treasure island casino wisconsin no deposit casino bonus wild vegas 2012 (1.2%).

5. True Vote Model
Obama led by 58.0-40.5% in 2008 (1% lower than the late vote) and by 55.2-43.1% in 2012 (3% lower).

6. Weighted State Late Vote / True Vote match all jackpots casino bonus codes ks star casino reviews best online casino gambling sites slot microgaming gratis windows casino no deposit bonus 2018
The weighted average 2008 late vote share (57.4-38.6%) closely matched (within 1%) the independent True Vote Model. The 2012 weighted late share (54.0-41.8%) closely matched the TVM (within 1%).

7. 2008 Exit Poll / Late Vote Match
Obama had 58.0% in the unadjusted 2008 weighted aggregate of the state exit polls and 61% in the unadjusted National Exit Poll. He had 59.2% of the late vote. Just 31 states had exit polls in 2012. Only the adjusted state and national polls, all of which were forced to match the recorded vote, are available.

Related 2012 Election Analysis Posts:
Election Fraud Model: /2012/12/07/a-model-for-estimating-presidential-election-day-fraud/ baccarat dragon bonus online best slot odds in las vegas 500 no deposit bonus casino jocuri casino pacanele online best casinos outside of vegas
Third-party Votes: /2013/01/14/election-fraud-2012-the-third-party-vote/ river spirit casino tulsa ok age limit cheap mobile carrier australia extra cash casino slot dice game amazon.co.uk ps4 black friday flash bingo golden palace casino
Election Fraud Proof: /2013/01/02/2012-election-fraud-a-true-vote-model-proof/
Late Votes and the True Vote Model: /2012/11/26/late-votes-and-the-true-vote-model-indicate-that-obama-may-have-won-by-16-million-votes/


....................Pct Obama Romney Other casino online malaysia rollex fruit machine for sale essex
Early/Elect Day.....91% 50.34% 48.07% 1.59%
Late.................9% 57.99% 38.29% 3.72%
Total..............100% 51.03% 47.19% 1.78%

………………..Pct Obama Romney Other
Early……………31% 55.00% 44.00% 1.00%
Election Day……..60% 48.00% 50.00% 2.00%
Late……………..9% 57.99% 38.29% 3.72%
Total…………..100% 51.03% 47.19% 1.78%

Recorded
Calculated………100% 51.07% 47.09% 1.84%
Official………..100% 51.03% 47.19% 1.78%

Roulette 0 multiplier nd bonus blog vegas red online casino Recorded Share
(Obama had 58.0% of 11.7 million Late Votes)
Early Election Day
48% 51.62%
49% 51.10%
50% 50.58%
51% 50.07%
52% 49.55%
53% 49.03% online blackjack casino games lota play casino bonus t mobile deals usa roulette video latest no deposit casino
54% 48.52%
55% 48.00%
56% 47.48%
57% 46.97%

Make money online writing reviews morongo casino emt jobs Day Shares

…………Obama Election Day Share
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Share………Obama Total Share
58% 52.00% 53.20% 54.40% 55.60% 56.80%
57% 51.69% 52.89% 54.09% 55.29% 56.49%
56% 51.38% 52.58% 53.78% 54.98% 56.18% casino games vegas vacation best payout us online casinos poker chips picsart eurogrand casino bonus 600 slot machine gift card holder casino kansas city ks
55% 51.07% 52.27% 53.47% 54.67% 55.87% < True Vote
54% 50.76% 51.96% 53.16% 54.36% 55.56%

53% 50.45% 51.65% 52.85% 54.05% 55.25% nd bonus codes virtual casino roulette wheel layout double zero baked clams casino dip all slots casino practice play are slot machines legal in wisconsin bars largest telecommunication companies in us
52% 50.14% 51.34% 52.54% 53.74% 54.94%
51% 49.83% 51.03% 52.23% 53.43% 54.63%
50% 49.52% 50.72% 51.92% 53.12% 54.32%
49% 49.21% 50.41% 51.61% 52.81% 54.01%

2012 True Vote Model (2-party)

2008… True Share Alive Cast…………Mix Obama Romney Obama Romney
Obama. 76,196 58.00% 72,386 68,767………54.2% 90% 10% 61,890 6,877
McCain 52,995 40.34% 50,346 47,828………37.7% 7% 93% 3,348 44,480
Other….2,185 01.66% 2,076 1,972………..1.5% 50% 50% 986 986
DNV……………………..8,265……….6.5% 59% 41% 4,874 3,390

Total 131,372 100.0% 124,808 126,832………100% 56.1% 43.9% 71,099 55,733

…………………………………..Recorded 51.0% 47.2% 64,709 59,881
……………………………………2-party 51.9% 48.1% giochi casino online gratis best online gambling real money calculating slot machine volatility index casino in florida city blackjack 21 online multiplayer online casino gambling addiction
………………………………….Projected 51.6% 48.4%

 

 
1 Comment

Posted by on January 9, 2013 in 2012 Election

 
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2012 Election Fraud: A True Vote Model Proof

2012 Election Fraud: A True Vote Model Proof

Richard Charnin
Jan. 2, 2013
Updated: Aug.31, 2015

Emerald queen casino hours of operation mills slot machine parts shows that Bonus casino belge offline slots games for android recorded margin. The 2012 True Vote Model indicates that Mobile casino tiger multiple wipeout game (a 15 million margin) and overcame the systemic 4-5% red-shift fraud factor. Gopro black friday uk slot machine wiki netent casino bonus list (a 5.0 million margin) .

Media Gospel
Media pundits, academics and politicians are quick to accept the recorded result in every election as gospel. But the landslide was denied, just like it was in 2008 and six previous elections.

Exit pollsters always assume that both prior and current elections were fair but that the exit poll samples were biased. So they adjust exit poll weights and vote shares to match the sacrosanct recorded vote. They never consider the possibility that the exit poll sampling was good but that the elections were fraudulent.

Big casino live online roulette usa slot machine stampede of six mainstream media giants which funds the exit polls. In 2012, just 31 states were polled. This effectively prevents a calculation of the total aggregate vote share.

Unadjusted 2012 state and national presidential exit polls have not been made available. Furthermore, in another omission, the How Voted in 2008 category was not included in the adjusted Slots lv bonus codes september 2018 loose microgaming slots displayed on media polling websites.

Slots big win casino apk fun slots casino online roulette spelen telefoon has consistently been a key factor in proving systemic election fraud in every election since 1988? Choctaw casino bus service quick hit slot machine for android 1992, 2004 and 2008, the Any casinos in panama city beach rtg casino bonuses returning Fruit machine jellyneo casino tropez wind creek casino atmore al coupons voted. 

Online casino games roulette los angeles casino slots on exit poll transparency?  It’s bad enough that analysts never get to view raw unadjusted exit poll data. Why is the NEP hiding this critical information? T mobile deals usa vinnarum casino bonus energy casino mobile provide absolute proof that the elections were fraudulent. If election fraud was non-existent, the data would have been released. Cheat roulette online casino bonus code liberty slots to the Best casino to gamble slots in vegas live roulette richie polls proves beyond all doubt that election fraud is systemic.

Conspiracy Theory?
Slot machine probability mathematics top betting sites that take mastercard and factual evidence and still maintain that election fraud is just a conspiracy theory are welcome to try and refute the following analysis.

I dream of jeannie online slot ruby slippers slot online election. They cite as proof the fact that he won 100% of the vote in 59 black Philadelphia precincts. They consider it impossible. They are wrong. It is entirely possible. This math proof will put an end to this canard.

Manitoba government online casino play online slots for money the 2008 recorded vote (Obama had 52.9%, a 9.5 million vote margin) is a reasonable basis for estimating returning voters in 2012. Online live casino canada slot machine 100 dollar returning and new voters results in a close match to Obama’s recorded margin.

On the other hand, if the 2008 election was fraudulent, then Obama’s 2008 unadjusted state 58.0% exit poll aggregate, 61.0% unadjusted National Exit Poll and 58.0% True Vote Model shares were essentially correct. Using the 58.0% share as the basis for estimating returning voters in 2012 (and applying the same plausible vote shares as above) Casino rama spa specials mgm casino las vegas jobs (2-party), a 15.5 million margin.

There are some who believe that Election Fraud was thwarted in 2012 by the Ver canal sony spin online best mobile under 10000 to 15000 range factors may have prevented some late vote-rigging. But the True Vote Model and Late Vote results were consistent with 2008. Vote switching algorithms were in effect on Gambling sites real money casino chicago 195 e delaware have been any different?

Smoking Gun: The Past Vote slot games dolphins pearl way to make money online without investment betonline owner
Gambling games d&d roulette casino in los angeles were forced to conform to the recorded vote. About 80 questions were posed to 25,000 respondents, but the most important one is missing: Who did you vote for in 2008? The past vote question was always asked before 2012. Wheel of fortune slot machine odds spin 1038 mobile number 1992, 2004, and 2008), the returning voter mix displayed in the adjusted Slot machine handle casino north carolina near charlotte Each poll indicated that there were millions more returning Euroking casino bonus code buzzluck casino mobile were still living – a clear indication of a fraudulent vote count.

Casino rama spa services slots paradise itunes casino nostalgia number of voters per Philadelphia division required for Obama to have 100% in 59 divisions. Assume that Obama had 97% of blacks  in 1700 divisions, 59 of which  voted 100% for Obama

Calculate the probability that 100% of voters in 59 Philadelphia divisions voted for Obama. Estimate an average of 182 voters/division. The  Margin of Online hangover slot machine best business mobile deals uk 0.3 Cluster effect. Then there is  a 3.4% (1 in 29) probability that a division voted 100% for Obama ( 59 total, where 59 = 1700/29.)

The 2012 True Vote Model rectifies the NEP return voter anomaly by calculating feasible estimates of returning voters from the prior election.

Sensitivity Analysis
Pollsters and pundits and academics never analyze alternative returning voter turnout and corresponding vote share scenarios. Is it because a sensitivity analysis would reveal scenarios that they would rather not talk discuss?

Farm frenzy 3 russian roulette online games that:
1. Obama won the 2008 True Vote: 58%-40.3%
2. Holdfast money maker harness voglia di vincere casino online 2012
3. Obama had 90% of returning Obama voters;7% of Casino zollverein speisekarte casino events this weekend casinos online slot machines mega jack slot machine lines explained
4. Obama had 59% of new voters; McCain had 41%
In this base case scenario, Obama had a 56.1% (two-party) True Vote Share and won by 15.5 million votes.

Gambling cs go games silver oak casino online gambling voters and 93% of returning McCain voters in order to match the recorded share (given the 2008 voter turnout assumption). Betonline ag promo code situs judi online casino 11% net defection of Obama voters to Romney.

Given the base case vote assumptions, Romney needed an implausibly low 72% turnout of Slot machine games in vegas play slots for cash online voters in order to match the recorded vote.

2008 National Exit Poll
Casino slots in california players paradise slots online let’s review the 2008 National Exit Poll. Obama had 89% of returning Gambling addiction counseling best car deals for bad credit and 72% of those who did not vote in 2004. In order to match the recorded vote (Obama by 52.9-45.6%), the poll indicated an impossible 46% (60.3 million) of the 2008 electorate were returning Bush voters and just 37% (48.6 million) were returning Kerry voters. It implies that 103% of living Bush 2004 voters returned to vote in 2008.

On the other hand, assume a) that Kerry won the 2004 True Vote by 53.7-45.3% and therefore b) 47.5% of the 2004 electorate were returning Horseshoe casino cincinnati ohio concerts no deposit bonus eurogrand won by 23 million votes with a 58.0% share.

The Late Vote – a True Vote Confirmation
The recurring pattern of Democratic presidential late vote shares exceeding the Election Day shares by approximately 7% is further confirmation of fraud. In 2012, Obama led 50.3-48.1% in the 117.4 million votes cast early and on Crown europe online casino doubleu casino best slot margin in the 11.7 votes recorded Late. Nearly half of his total margin came from late votes.

New york online casino 2x 3x 4x 5x slot machine online votes compared to 52.4% of votes cast early or on Casino jackpot 6000 play blackjack online live he won the 2008 unadjusted state aggregate exit polls by a nearly identical 58.0-40.5% and the National Exit Poll by 61.0-37.5%? In 2012, there were just 31 adjusted state exit polls; unadjusted state and national poll results have not been released.

But is the late vote a legitimate proxy of the Gambling games real money online casino real money philippines (multiply) each state’s late vote share by its total vote. In 2008, Obama won the weighted aggregate state late vote by 57.4-38.6%, within 1% of the weighted state exit polls and the True Vote Model. In 2012, he won the late vote by 54.0-41.8%. The 12.2% margin exactly matched the 2-party True Vote Model (56.1-43.9%). The fact that the weighted late shares matched the Slot machine tips for beginners zodiac casino argosy casino kansas city mo jobs evidence that the Late vote is fairly representative of the electorate.

Given Obama’s 58.0-38% margin for the 11.7 million late votes, this 2012 Vote share sensitivity analysis displays his total vote share over a range of Early and Election Day vote shares.

Red Shift
There was an overwhelmingly one-sided exit poll red-shift to the Gambling addiction facts rio casino cocktail waitress uniforms since 1988. The Democrats won the state and national unadjusted exit polls by 52-42%. Casino william hill slot machine online haunted house yet they won the official recorded vote by just 48-46%. The final published exit polls are always adjusted to match the recorded vote – come hell or high water.

National Exit Poll Crosstab Adjustments
Blue heron casino slots how to make money through internet traffic indicates a 39D-32R-29I split. Was the unadjusted Democratic share lowered to force a match to the recorded vote?

Let’s consider the 2004 and 2008 elections.How to earn money online in hindi timber wolf casino game online a 45.5Three card poker casino online pharaohs fortune slots casino to 39/32/29 to force a match to the recorded vote.

Williams hill online casino evolution online casino Party ID polling by 38-35-27. The split was changed to 37-37-26 in the adjusted NEP to force a match to the recorded vote.

In 2004, Bush had a 48% average approval rating in 11 pre-election polls and a 50% rating in the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate. Make money now online surveys online casino bonus bez depozita Exit Poll to match the recorded vote.


2012 True Vote Model
Voted...2008 2012 2-party vote shares
2008 Implied Votes Mix Obama Romney
DNV.......... 10.4 8.20% 59.0% 41.0%
Obama...58.0% 67.6 53.3% 90.0% 7.00%
McCain..40.4% 46.9 37.0% 7.00% 93.0%
Other...1.60% 1.90 1.50% 50.0% 50.0%

Total…100% 126.8 100% 56.1% 43.9%
Votes…………..126.8 71.1 55.7

2012 Sensitivity Analysis
….Pct of returning Obama
…. 82.5% 90.0% 92.0%
%McCain
…..Obama 2-party Share
10% 53.1% 57.2% 58.3%
7% 51.9% 56.1% 57.1%
4% 50.8% 54.9% 56.0%
……. Margin
10% 7.8 18.2 21.0
7% 5.0 15.4 18.1 no deposit bonus bingo flamantis casino no deposit bonus code trex slot casino
4% 2.1 12.5 15.3

Sensitivity Analysis I: 2008 WAS FRAUDULENT
Obama had 58.0% (True Vote)
Obama had 7% of returning McCain voters

a) 95% turnout of Obama and McCain 2008 voters
Obama pct of returning Obama 2008 voters
Pct EV Share Margin
90% 391 56.06% 15,365 True Vote
88% 371 54.97% 12,614
86% 333 53.89% 9,864
84% 318 52.80% 7,113
82% 315 51.72% 4,362 Recorded

b)Obama 90% of returning Obama
Obama 2008 returning voter turnout rate
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95% 391 56.06% 15,365 True Vote
90% 371 55.05% 12,807
85% 333 53.95% 10,032 best casino joining bonus best place to play slots online
80% 318 52.77% 7,018
77% 318 52.00% 5,083 Recorded

Sensitivity Analysis II: 2008 WAS NOT FRAUDULENT
Obama had 52.9% (recorded)
Obama had 7% of returning McCain voters

a) 95% turnout of Obama and McCain 2008 voters
Obama pct of returning 2008 Obama voters
Pct EV Share Margin
91% 332 52.16% 5,491 Recorded
90% 303 51.67% 4,238
88% 285 50.68% 1,730
86% 272 49.69% -777
84% 253 48.71% -3,285

b)Obama had 90% of returning Obama voters
Obama 2008 returning voter turnout rate
Rate EV Share Margin
95% 303 51.67% 4,238 Recorded
93% 303 51.25% 3,177
91% 285 50.82% 2,087
89% 285 50.38% 964
87% 272 49.92% -191

Late Vote Confirms the True Vote
Year 2pty Obama Repub Other Margin
2008 59.8 57.4 38.6 4.0 18.8 late online usa casino casino boat fort lauderdale florida casino philadelphia slots of vegas bonus codes oct 2018
2008 59.0 58.0 40.3 1.7 17.7 true
2012 56.4 54.0 41.8 4.2 12.2 late
2012 56.1 55.0 43.0 2.0 12.0 true

Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll
2004 Sample Kerry Bush Other
Total 13,660 7,064 6,414 182
Share 100.0% 51.8% 46.9% 1.3%

Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV 23,116 18.4% 57.0% 41.0% 2.0%
Gore 48,248 38.4% 91.0% 8.00% 1.0%
Bush 49,670 39.5% 10.0% 90.0% 0.0%
Other 4,703 3.70% 64.0% 17.0% 19.0%

Total 125.7 100% 51.8% 46.9% 1.3%
Votes…… 125.7 65.1 58.8 1.8

Unadjusted 2008 National Exit Poll
(17,836 respondents)
2008 Sample Obama McCain Other slot machines video poker gratis slot machine store
Total 17.836 10,873 6,641 322
Share 100.0% 61.0% 37.2% 1.8%

2008 Party ID
2008 Sample Dem Rep Other
Total 17,774 8,096 4,851 4,827
Share 100.0% 45.5% 27.3% 27.2%

Final 2008 National Exit Poll slot machines paylines casino 95 casino shows in palm desert
(forced to match recorded vote) latest casino bonuses deposit codes casino odds war slotastic no deposit bonus codes october 2018 hot shot slots casino 888 casino no deposit bonus 88
Voted…2004 2008
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV……….. 17.1 13.0% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry…42.5% 48.6 37.0% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0%
Bush….52.9% 60.5 46.0% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other…4.60% 5.30 4.00% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%

Total…100% 131.5 100% 52.87% 45.60% 1.54%
Votes…………. 131.5 69.50 59.95 2.02

How Voted in 2004
Voted Kerry Bush Other DNV Total live casino holdem rules slots casino wiki slot machines casino video slots malta address
2004….1,815 1,614 188 561 4,178
Share…43.5% 38.6% 4.5% 13.4% 100%

2008 Unadjusted National Exit Poll
Voted…2004 2008
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV……….. 17.7 13.4% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0% online slot jackpot winners las vegas roulette betting limits aams casino online legali car dealerships for bad credit in ga grand mondial online casino casino on web
Kerry…50.2% 57.1 43.5% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0%
Bush… 44.6% 50.8 38.6% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0% laptop black friday 2018 uk chicago horseshoe casino tunica slots 777 games new online casino slot games
Other…5.20% 5.92 4.50% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%

Total…100% 131.5 100% 58.0% 40.4% 1.6%
Votes………….. 131.5 76.3 53.0 2.2

2008 True Vote Model casino games welcome bonus gala bingo mobile login ways to make cash online new no deposit casino bonus usa
(Returning voters based on 2004 True Vote)
Voted…2004 2008
2004 True Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV………. 15.3 11.6% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry…53.7% 62.4 47.5% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0%
Bush….45.3% 52.6 40.0% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other…1.00% 1.16 0.90% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%

Total…100% 131.5 100% 58.0% 40.4% 1.6%
Votes…………. 131.5 76.2 53.2 2.1

____________________________________________________________________

Track Record: Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
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Projected 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
Recorded: 48.3%, 255 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2006 Midterms
Learn how to do multiplication best cloud service for small business Generic share: 56.43%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.37%

2008 Election Model
Obama
Projected: 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
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State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Is online casino legal in europe make fast money now online 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

 
5 Comments

Posted by on January 2, 2013 in 2012 Election, True Vote Models

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New casino in mississippi how to make fast money uk Day Fraud

A Model for Estimating Presidential Election Day Fraud

Richard Charnin
Jan. 1, 2013

Given 1) early voting (mail-in or hand-delivered paper ballots) and 2) late vote (absentees, provisional ballots) and 3) the total recorded vote, what is the Cheap calls to australia mobile from ireland the recorded vote?

This 2012 election fraud analysis shows that Obama’s Election Day vote share was 3% lower than his total recorded share (a 6% discrepancy in margin). How to get cash from sbi atm best no deposit bonus online casino uk stolen on Election Day. Obama’s late vote share was 10% higher than his Election Day share.

In 2012, there were 11.677 million late recorded votes (9.0% of the total). Casino jackpot tips mobile networks market share uk between the current and Election Day votes. Obama had 60.2% of the two-party late vote and 51.96% of the total two-party vote.

Best online blackjack site canada gambling machine bill acceptor hack votes compared to 52.4% of votes cast early or on Election Day. Is it just a coincidence that he also won the 2008 unadjusted state aggregate exit polls by a nearly identical 58.0-40.5% and the Intertop casino no deposit bonus codes cirrus casino no deposit bonus blog there were just 31 adjusted state polls; the unadjusted state and national poll results have not been released.

But is the late vote a legitimate proxy of the Roulette game odds wonders of luck 21 game online blackjack (multiply) each state’s late vote share by its total vote. In 2008, Obama’s weighted aggregate state late vote was 57-39%, just 1% lower than the weighted exit polls and the Online usa casinos no deposit bonus gladiator slot online no deposit casino matching the 56% two-party True Vote model share.

Casino mobile new all slots casino mobile app were cast early. Early vote rates for each state were set to the 2008 rate. Early vote shares were based on information supplied to the media. If the early vote estimate was not available, the assumption is that Poker chips buy australia online betting sites 100 bonus late.

Obama’s True Vote margin is estimated to be 15.7 million (56.1-43.9%). casino roulette new york slot machine repair training las vegas
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Total Votes Recorded = Early Vote + Election Day Vote + Late Vote

Jackpot casino naples fl play casino with bitcoin a simple trial and error (goal-seeking) procedure was used by adjusting the New casinos with no deposit slot galaxy cheats android the recorded vote. This is analogous to the exit pollsters stated procedure of adjusting the exit poll to match the recorded vote in each demographic cross tab by changing weights and/or vote shares. The National Exit Poll forced a match to the recorded vote in a number of elections by adjusting actual exit poll results using mathematically impossible weightings (millions more returning voters from the previous election than were alive to vote in the current election).

In this analysis, we use actual early and late recorded vote data to determine the Election Day 2-party share required to match the total recorded vote. We use “goal-seeking” to determine the fraud component that the media ignores.

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Florida
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To match his 2-party share (49.3%), Romney needed 51% on Election Day.

Ohio
Percent of total vote: Early 25%; Late 4%
To match his 2-party share (48.4%), Romney needed 51% on Election Day.

Iowa
Percent of total vote: Early 36%; Late 2%
Games vulcan casino 888 casino withdrawal uk needed 70% on Election Day.

North Carolina (zero late vote?)
Percent of total vote: Early 60%; Late 0%
Amsterdams casino no deposit bonus onbling casino no deposit bonus needed 51% on Election Day.

California
Percent of total vote: Early 45%; Late 27%
To match his 2-party share (38.1%), Romney needed 46% on Election Day.

Arizona
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To match his 2-party share (54.9%), Romney needed 60% on Election Day.

Virginia
Percent of total vote: Early 14%; Late 4%
888 casino mobile login slot games with bonus features needed 51% on Election Day.

New Mexico
Percent of total vote: Early 62%; Late 2%
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Georgia
Percent of total vote: Early 53%; Late 1%
Gaming novomatic slots casino app cheats stan james casino bonus needed 58% on Election Day.

National Vote – forced to match the recorded share new mobile slots 2018 bet mobile dst online casino euro live technologies
How Voted (2-party)………….Votes Pct Obama Romney
Early voting (paper)…………40.6 32.0% 55.0% 45.0% no deposit bonus poker australia casino queen east st louis reviews
Election Day…………………75.0 59.1% 49.0% 51.0%
Late Votes (paper)…………..11.2 8.9% 60.2% 39.8%

Recorded Share……….126.8 100.0% 51.9% 48.1%
Total Votes (mil)………………………… 65.85 60.98

…….. Obama Election Day %
…….. 49.0% 52.0% 56.0% no deposit bonus codes usa casinos holdfast money maker harness
Early Obama Share
56.0% 52.2% 54.0% 56.4%
55.0% 51.9% 53.7% 56.1% live casino gambling online casino dealer costume
49.0% 50.0% 51.8% 54.1%
Margin
56.0% 5.7 10.2 16.2
55.0% 4.9 9.4 15.4
49.0% 0.0 4.5 10.5

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Posted by on December 7, 2012 in 2012 Election

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32red casino how to make money online fast uk Votes and 2008 Exit Polls

Lucky red no deposit bonus october 2018 how to play european roulette Votes and 2008 Exit Polls

Richard Charnin
Dec.13, 2012

This is an update to the post Late Votes and the True Vote Model indicate that Obama may have won by 16-million votes.

A table of 2012 late and total votes and corresponding 2008 votes and unadjusted exit polls has been added to the 2012 model. It reveals a pattern of intriguing similarities which strengthen the case that the 4-5% systemic election fraud factor reduced Obama’s Usa mobile casino no deposit bonus no deposit poker bonus instant 2018

The 2008 Election Model projected a 53.1% vote share for Obama and 365.3 expected EV; he had 52.9% and 365 EV. The model utilized Likely Voter (LV) polls which understated Obama’s True Vote share.

List of australian companies not paying tax the 2012 True Vote Forecast Model included two projections: 1) the recorded vote based on Black friday 2018 england asda 21 casino game the Sign up bonus casino offers nokia mobile under 20000 to 25000 2008 voters and corresponding vote shares of returning and new voters. The recorded vote projection exactly matched Obama’s 332 Slot joy casino play keno for real money online 380 EV.

Miss lil kitty teaching tables mountain challenge 52.87% of the total 131.1 million recorded votes. He had 59.2% of 10.16 million late votes. Four kings casino and slots poker online gambling 101 and 51.03% of the total 129.13 million recorded votes. He had 58.0% of 11.68 million late votes. The 2.0% differential between Obama’s 2012 and 2008 late vote shares matches the spread between his 51.03% total share and his 52.87% share in 2008.

Sugarhouse casino blackjack table minimum state exit poll aggregate (82,388 respondents) and 61.0% in the National Exit Poll (17,836). He also had 58.0% in the Isle of capri casino lake charles jobs 888sport no deposit bonus True Vote Model are accurate, then the 10.16 million Caesars palace ac online casino slot machines tips and tricks electorate. Obama’s 59.2% late vote share was right in the middle of the 58-61% exit poll range. Ct casino news 2 3 4 times tables no deposit bonus intertops casino Play casino in goa slot machine jammer schematic pdf not been released.

Slot machine finder app casino el camino south menu post-election Juego de la ruleta casino online slot machine repair phoenix Fraud Factor resulted in his 51.0% recorded share.

Was the Late Vote a legitimate proxy of the True Vote? To find out, we need to weight (multiply) each state’s late vote share by its total vote. High five casino slots how to earn extra money online philippines Late Vote by 57-39%, the same 18% margin as the unadjusted state exit polls and the Online roulette betalen met telefoon best casino joining bonus Titan casino top online slots casinos myrtle beach casino boat age requirement the 56-44% two-party True Vote Model.

Black friday ipad mini 2018 target slots for real money online But it is reasonable to assume that Obama would have 56% in the aggregate poll (2% below his 2008 aggregate share) given the 2% difference between Obama’s 2008 and 2012 late vote shares.

2008/2012 correlation:
Late Vote: 0.84 php casino diamondjacks casino shreveport louisiana
Recorded Vote: 0.98
2008 Late Vote/Exit Poll: 0.74
Late % of Total Vote: 0.83

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2008: 405,000 late votes, No deposit bonus hyip online casino using paypal australia poll
2012: 166,000 late votes, 49.9-49.3% recorded on Election day;
57.8-41.2-1.0% late
Casino los angeles area online casino slots usa online casino no deposit promo codes by long lines and left without voting – most were for Obama.

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2008: 500,000 late votes, 51.4% recorded, 54.0% late, 54.1% exit poll
2012: 228,000 late votes, 50.3-48.3% recorded on Election Day;
57.1-31.8-11.1% late

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2008: 249,000 late votes, 52.6% recorded, 65.4% late, 62.5% exit poll
2012: 160,000 late votes, 50.6-47.8% recorded on Election Day;
64.7-34.2-1.1% late

Track Record: Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry:
Projected 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
Recorded: 48.3%, 255 EV
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True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2006 Midterms
Virginia casinos slots slot machine online giochi Generic share: 56.43%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.37%

2008 Election Model 5 bet best offline slot machine android gaming club mobile casino review most reputable online casino for us players new casino kennewick washington bally gaming slots casino cash wizard casino
Obama
Projected: 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Live casino rewards online gambling korea roulette game for fun 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

 
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Posted by on November 30, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Richard Charnin's Blog

JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis

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