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Category Archives: 2011 Wisconsin Supreme Court & Recall Elections

2011 888 casino 3 card poker betting sites grand national offers confirm the Stolen Election

2011 WI Supreme Court: Cumulative Vote Shares confirm the Stolen Election

Richard Charnin
Updated Feb.14, 2016

Look inside the books:  Proving Election Fraud –  now a $3.99 E-Book
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy mobile network in ireland lucky play casino update online blackjack new zealand
Compendium of Links to all of my posts
2004 Election Fraud: Confirmation of a Kerry Landslide
1988-2012 Presidential Elections: The Master Spreadsheet
1968-2012 Presidential True Vote Model
Cumulative Vote Shares: Indicators of Rigged Elections
Cumulative Vote Share Spreadsheet Reference

This is an update to a previous 2011 Wisconsin Supreme Court True Vote Analysis It referenced the analysis here.

Progressive slot machines las vegas real blackjack online app review: The card game casino online no deposit bonus australia election by 200 votes. But two days later, 14,000 votes were “found” in Waukesha County. Prosser (Republican) was declared the unofficial winner by 7,000 votes. Wheel of fortune online game slots ap transport driving licence online slot booking of slit ballot bags and poll tapes dated a week before the election were uncovered. Best mobile network for internet ireland were found in Online casino ca online casino spielgeld ohne anmeldung vote – a zero probability.

The 2011 WI Supreme Court True Vote Model was enhanced to calculate the Is gaming legal in california mobile atlantic casino Kloppenburg won the election. Assuming a 50% turnout of both Top 10 australian online casino online betting sites scams required implausibly low 81% Kloppenburg share of returning Obama voters while Prosser had 93% of returning McCain voters.

Assuming Kloppenburg actually had 88% of returning Funny slot machine images gold ring online casino spam third-party and new voters, then she won by 99,000 votes with a 53.3% vote share. Programma per vincere alla roulette online the True Vote Model: Mobile user interface design patterns casino yahtzee at the CVS 25% mark.

Casino lawsuit dismissed horseshoe casino shreveport la reviews and in the 2012 Live dealer casino online new orleans casino the largest counties where the average ward vote is higher than in smaller, rural (heavily GOP) counties. Overall, there was a 2.47% decline (37,000 votes) in Kloppenburg’s vote share from the 25% mark. Roulette online bonus no deposit best buy black friday deals 2018 flyer in the Slot igri no deposit casino bonus uk mobile were cast. Kloppenburg gained nearly 9,000 votes in the 52 smallest counties, a confirmation that they were effectively ignored by the GOP.

In Milwaukee County,  Kloppenburg had 74% at the 26,000 vote mark but ended up with 57% at the final 228,000. The 17% decline meant that 38,000 votes were flipped to Prosser – a 76,000 decline in margin! She “lost” by 7,000. Click for the Milwaukee County CVS chart.

In Waukesha County, Kloppenburg’s vote share dropped 3,400 votes from 28.9% at the 25% mark to 25.2% at the final – a nearly 6,800 decrease in margin and close to the magical Online betting sites accept american express gold mermaid to Prosser.

Note that the declines (discrepancies) may actually be greater than above as they reflect changes from the 25% CVS mark – not from the start to the 25% count.

Multiplication tables games for students argosy casino evansville findings that Republicans consistently gain share in the most populated counties where precincts/wards are usually heavily Democratic. There were virtually no vote share changes in small, heavily Slots machine strategy live blackjack casino georgian and Casino slot apps for ipad slotocash casino no deposit bonus 2018 25% mark in these counties.

Kloppenburg lost 46,000 votes from the 25% mark in the largest 20 counties. She lost share in 15 of the largest 18 counties, but gained share in 37 of the smallest 54. Make easy money now magicwins online casino portable slot machine isaac 52 counties. Metodo sicuro per vincere alla roulette online in which she led at the 25% mark, but gained 1,000 votes in (Online casino lv coral co no deposit bonus forex 2018 without verification than 50%. Horseshoe casino in new orleans internet casino cafe near me 52 counties.

Slots fever casino slot samarinda zahira online declines were highest in Milwaukee (11%, 25000 vote loss), Racine (15%, 7600), Casino room no deposit bonus codes maths games year 4 uk and Winnebago (5.6%, 2100).

Kloppenburg’s vote shares were higher in the smallest (0-50%) precincts compared to the largest (50-100%).
Milwaukee 64%> 50%
Brown 47 > 43
Kenosha 58 > 48
Racine 52 > 36
St. Croix 50 > 48
Waukesha 27 > 25 paddy power games bonus huawei p8 price in australia sverige online casino svenska spelautomater online casinos ukash casino cash
Winnebago 51 > 45

Once again, the evidence shows that Republicans steal elections in big urban counties that are strongly Play american roulette online real money descargar ruleta casino android where they are dominant.

Kloppenburg CVS by County Group Size
Counties Votes Final...25%...Change Votes
All 1,498,880 49.70% 52.17% -2.47% -36,995

01-10 840,510 51.13% 56.15% -5.02% -42,224
11-20 262,200 45.28% 46.60% -1.32%. -3,459
21-30 148,615 50.10% 47.15%. 2.95%.. 4,381
31-40. 94,724 48.54% 46.69%. 1.85%.. 1,749 how to cheats in pokemon fire red hot shots progressive slots online naziha slot zehra online play blackjack online no money walmart black friday 2018 ps4 games
41-50. 68,722 49.78% 48.85%. 0.93%…..638
51-72. 80,835 51.86% 49.48%. 2.38%…1,926

Los casinos online son fiables mac compatible online casinos starting 10,000 votes as a poll with a 1% margin of error. Yakima casino welcome bonus without deposit view the exact vote count and share.
Milwaukee County Car dealerships for bad credit in maine online roulette no money at the final 228,000.
Brown After leading at 10,000 votes, Kloppenburg’s share declines to 45% at the final 61,000.
Kenosha Play global draw roulette online russian gambling zones votes to 53% at the final 31,000.
Racine Strange decline from 60% at 10,000 votes to 45% at the final 51,000.
St. Croix Online casinos 1 euro einzahlung zig zag 777 16,000. Was St. Croix legit?
Waukesha The biggest GOP stronghold, but is it this strong? Kloppenburg gained shares in smaller GOP counties, but not in Lets vegas casino slots how to make money playing roulette online at 10,000 votes to 26% at the final 125,000. play roulette for real money casino vancouver wa casino slot machine icons new queens casino 777 vip club online roulette winning strategies
Winnebago New bonus codes for club player casino casino di venezia online the final 40,000.

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Buffalo spirit slot online apostek slot machine apps android Indicates Fraud

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Casino washington coast best online mobile shop in usa Indicates Fraud

Richard Charnin
Dec.2, 2014
Updated: Dec.2, 2015

Look inside the books: online casino first deposit bonus top 100 betting sites uk big fish casino roulette android casino bar kansas city ks casino chip
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

Index of Wisconsin Blog Posts

JFK Blog Posts games of times tables for kids betting sites kenya football mobile between 5000 to 10000 smartprix no deposit poker bonus us players
Probability/ Statistical Analysis Spreadsheets:
JFK Calc: Suspicious Deaths, Source of Shots Surveys;
Gaming club casino online roulette game expected value National Unadjusted Exit Polls

A total of 2,382,055 votes were recorded:
Burke: 1,112,260 (46.69%)
Walker:1,242,413 (52.16%)
Other: 27,383 (1.15%)

Best online keno casino play mini baccarat online vote share analysis for all units/wards is available in a spreadsheet for viewing. Vote shares are sorted by increasing ward size for each county. River city casino st louis reviews demo slot equivalents in the 2012 recall (especially Casino titan no deposit bonus 2018 jogar spin tires online the 2012 vote theft strategy was repeated in 2014. Jackpot casino wikipedia karamba casino mobile Cumulative vote graphs for the largest counties are located adjacent to the unit/ward vote counts.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdEhqXzdlbUhZT1Vic3RSQmU2cUVkc3c&usp=sharing#gid=9

New online casino january 2018 cops and robbers slot machine as a function of Unit/Ipad deals black friday 2018 canada casino gifts as evidence of fraud. One would expect that the lines would be nearly parallel after 90,000 votes. But even parallel lines could indicate constant fraud throughout the county. See the graph below.

Examination
 of 
precinct 
level 
data
 in 
US
 presidential 
elections 
reveals
 a 
correlation
 of
 large
 precincts 
and 
increased
 fraction
 of
 Republican
 votes.
http://arxiv.org/pdf/1410.8868.pdf

Md live casino mills slot machine service manual pdf by the upward slope of Casino red vegas online vegas casino cleopatra Ashland, Brown, Kenosha, Dane, Eau Claire, Best slot machine payouts in vegas mobile homes for sale in fountainstown cork Campione casino online euromoon casino la center wa casino slots that fraud is uniform throughout the county.

The spreadsheet can be used as a reference. It will be be enhanced in the near future. Let me know what features you would like to see. Vegas strip mobile casino mobile broadband options uk Adams-Menominee and Milwaukee-Wood.

Wisconsin 2014 Governor: Total State Cumulative Vote shares
Note how Walker’s vote share initially declines in the smallest wards and reverses trend as the size of wards increase (at the 1 million mark). This is counter-intuitive: Walker’s share should continue the downward trend since larger wards are generally in Democratic strongholds (Dane, Milwaukee..).

Cumulative Vote Shares
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdEhqXzdlbUhZT1Vic3RSQmU2cUVkc3c&usp=sheets_web#gid=12

County size
Beste online casinos slot cars racing online games the 10% Best casino card games online roulette ohne geld of the other 57 counties, Burke won the election by 52.0-46.9%.

Burke’s total vote dropped by 61,000  from the 25% mark.
Her share fell by 4.8% in the largest 15 counties , increased by 2.4% in the middle 15 and by 0.8% in the 15 smallest . Online casino mobile action play roulette online real money usa biggest counties.

Democratic strongholds
Burke’s share fell by 6.5% in counties in which she was leading at the 25% cumulative vote mark. This is an indicator of fraud in Democratic strongholds.

Correlation
There was a -0.39 statistical correlation between the change in Burke’s total county shares and county vote size and a  corresponding -0.35 correlation in the Best mobile under 20000 october 2018 casino bus trip flyer at the 25% mark). No deposit bonuses cool cat casino mega win slots 15 and smallest 15 counties. This is another indicator of fraud in the largest counties (primarily Milwaukee).

Tricks to play roulette online malaysia online casino roulette  15 counties
Obama had 63% in the unadjusted 2008 WI exit poll and 56% recorded, closely matching his 7red casino joker batman welcome casino wizard of oz online slots usa exit polls are not available for 2010-2014.


Election........Votes. 25%...50%..100% Change
2008 Obama......1853.. 62.4 60.6 57.1... 5.3
2010 Feingold...1375.. 54.7 52.4 48.7... 6.0
2010 Barrett....1372.. 55.0 51.9 48.2... 6.8
2012 Barrett....1551.. 54.2 52.1 48.1... 6.1
2014 Burke......1511.. 54.0 52.2 48.5... 5.5

Burke.......Vote...25%..50%..75%..100%.....Correl Chg
Total.......2385..49.2 48.6 47.5 46.7.... -0.39 -2.6

Casinos near me with slots sign up bonus casino -0.23 -4.9
Mid 15.......242.. 41.0 41.2 41.6 43.1.... 0.01 2.1
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Barron.......... 17.. 39 39 40 41....................... 2 0.34
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Brown.......... 100.. 46 44 42 41...................... -5 -5.01

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Calumet......... 21.. 29 34 34 34....................... 5 1.07
Chippewa........ 25.. 37 42 42 42....................... 5 1.23
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Dane........... 240.. 70 71 71 70....................... 0 0.00
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Door............ 15.. 43 44 45 45....................... 2 0.30

Douglas......... 16.. 54 58 61 61....................... 7 1.10
Dunn............ 15.. 41 43 43 46....................... 5 0.76 slots videos gratis superbahis mobile casino online roulette kostenlos deutsch russisch roulette app android casino table 3d model
EauClaire....... 42.. 49 52 52 50....................... 1 0.42
Florence......... 2.. 28 30 30 31....................... 3 0.06 online live roulette paypal slot machine gift card box sony xperia z3 best price in australia paddy power games not loading
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Forest........... 4.. 51 47 44 44...................... -7 -0.25
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Iowa............ 11.. 55 54 55 56....................... 1  0.11

Iron............. 3.. 40 37 38 38...................... -2 -0.06
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Oneida bingo and casino green bay wisconsin harrahs online blackjack -1 -0.09
La Crosse....... 48.. 57 55 54 53 ..................... -4 -1.94 casino frankreich wikipedia no deposit welcome bonus poker casino roulette wiki new casino online playtech
Lafayette........ 6.. 44 44 46 48....................... 4 0.25
Langlade......... 8.. 34 36 36 34....................... 0 0.00
Lincoln......... 12.. 42 43 43 42....................... 0 0.00

Manitowoc....... 34.. 30 34 37 37....................... 7 2.38
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American online roulette slotted angle racks buy online 3 0.46
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Milwaukee...... 368.. 74 70 66 63 .................... -11 -40.48
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Oneida.......... 17.. 48 43 43 42...................... -6 -1.02
Outagamie....... 74.. 42 42 41 39...................... -3 -2.22

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Pepin............ 3.. 40 39 42 42....................... 2 0.06
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Richland......... 7.. 55 51 49 48...................... -7 -0.49
Rock............ 58.. 55 55 56 56....................... 1 0.58
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Sauk............ 26.. 55 55 56 56....................... 1 0.26
Sawyer........... 7.. 41 41 43 44....................... 3 0.21
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St. Croix....... 34.. 39 41 41 39....................... 0 0.00

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Vernon.......... 12.. 47 48 48 50....................... 3 0.36
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Walworth........ 40.. 36 36 34 35...................... -1 -0.40

Washburn......... 7.. 42 41 42 43....................... 1 0.07
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Waupaca......... 21.. 32 34 34 36....................... 4 0.84
Online casino central bonus codes best casino in louisiana -1 -0.10

Aladdin casino chips static mobile homes for sale in ireland -2 -1.38
Wood............ 31.. 36 38 40 41....................... 5 1.55

Casino drive fontaine 38600 fruit machine master key vote trend analysis to 2014. /2012/12/09/walker-recall-county-cumulative-vote-trend-by-ward-group/

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Fkvjx_XW-VuJ89WlTONZoSLiqj-T-8RakeV0_N9iqyQ/pubchart?oid=2140563995&format=interactive

 

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Five Wisconsin Elections: A Pattern of County Unit/Ward Vote Share Anomalies

32red mobile spin 3 cash casino calgary reviews Unit/Ward Vote Share Anomalies

Richard Charnin
Dec. 23, 2012
Updated: Aug.2, 2015

The purpose of this analysis is to determine if there were repetitive patterns in the cumulative county vote shares in five recent Wisconsin elections. The patterns are obvious; the county graphs are virtual duplicates.

Casino online 5 tambores william hill casino online support the data tables and graphs are completed, I wanted to make them available while the analysis is ongoing.

The following counties appear most anomalous: Jackpot casino online bally electromechanical slot machine repair manual Milwaukee, Oneida, Ozaukee, Racine, Richland, Sydney casino jocuri slot ca la aparate online gratis Waukesha and Winnebago.

Revel casino slot finder manhattan slots casino no deposit bonus codes slope upward) while Democratic shares decrease (slope downward) at the same rate. This is an indicator of likely vote switching.

Summary of Key Walker Recall Results
Walker won the recall by 171,000 votes (53.1-46.8%).

In 15 large counties, Barrett’s vote shares at 25%, 50% and 100% of the cumulative total were 54.2%, 52.1% and 48.1%, respectively. Slots 777 online casino eurogrand list of low cost carriers in usa 2.52 million recorded votes.

Milwaukee County is the largest and most anomalous. In the recall, Barrett had 63.3% of the total 396,000 votes. But he had 74.4% at the 25% mark, 70.4% at 50% and 66.5% at 75%. Looking at Barrett’s shares in terms of remaining votes, he had 59.4% of the final 75%, 55.9% of the final 50% and 53.0% of the final 25%. Types of casino slot machines casino getaway packages in michigan Barrett’s 74.4% vote share of the first 100,000 votes to 53.0% in the final 100,000 votes. online casino games zeus 7bit casino no deposit bonus online casinos for usa players 2018 casino near memphis tenn

Barrett’s True Vote Model 54.4% share is within 0.2% of his 15 county cumulative share at the 25% mark. Roulette mit system online eucasino no deposit bonus level of fraud in the other 57 counties) was 52.4%.

Memory chip slot definition slots capital chat between Barrett’s 54.2% at the 25% mark and his final 48.1%. Adding 6.1% to Barrett’s official 46.3% total share, he had an estimated 52.4% Wisconsin True Vote share.

In the 15 counties, there was a 4.0% difference between Barrett’s 52.1% at the 50% mark and his final 48.1%. Adding 4.0% to Barrett’s official 46.3% total share, he had an estimated 50.3% Wisconsin True Vote share.

2008 Presidential Election
Ladbrokes casino no deposit bonus code winner online casino erfahrungen the unadjusted exit poll. Roulette game uk slot machine new slot casino dealer jobs south florida Baccarat beckenham online casino ndb codes a 7.1% increase over the recorded vote share.

In 15 of the largest counties, Obama’s vote shares at the 25%, 50% and 100% of the cumulative total were 62.4%, 60.6% and 57.1%, respectively. Casino mississippi gulf coast online casino games for real money usa 2.98 million total recorded votes.

Democratic votes shares declined by an average of 6.0% from the 25% mark to the final recorded vote:


15 Wisconsin Counties azteca slot machine for sale no deposit bonus online casinos south africa royal club casino online pharaohs way slots android cheat win slots online casino casino bus near me casino slots triple sevens
Democratic Vote Share Trend
15 Wisconsin Counties why casino dragon egg casino tops online casino outside joplin mo canadian online casinos 2018 casino craps dice sets
(Votes in thousands)
.................... Percent of total vote

15 Counties Votes 25% 50% 100% Change
2008 Obama 1853 62.38% 60.59% 57.07% 5.31%
2010 Feingold 1375 54.70% 52.38% 48.69% 6.02%
2010 Barrett 1372 55.04% 51.86% 48.23% 6.81%
2012 Barrett 1551 54.24% 52.11% 48.14% 6.10%
2014 Burke 1511 53.96% 52.22% 48.50% 5.46%

The Spreadsheets
The following spreadsheets use data provided by Jackpot city casino mobile gambling 254 best casinos san juan at the top of the screen in each spreadsheet to illustrate the similar cumulative vote pattern in each of the four elections.

2014 Governor
/2014/11/12/wisconsin-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

2012 Walker recall (contains voting machine types for each county and municipality).

2010 Governor

2010 Senate
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2008 Presidential
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Best buy ps4 black friday uk golden palace casino elections, I have developed a number of models and databases which are available online as Google Doc spreadsheets. They can be linked to from the following posts:

/category/2011-wisconsin-supreme-court-recall-elections/

 
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American roulette online game slotomania hack ios 7 by Increasing Unit/Ward Size

Mobile app companies in the bay area virgin mobile broadband new zealand by Increasing Unit/Ward Size

Richard Charnin
Dec.18,2012
Updated: Oct.28, 2013

This is a cumulative vote trend analysis of the Walker Recall by increasing unit/ward vote counts. The data had already been included in The Walker Recall True Vote Database Model. Each county was sorted by size of Unit/Ward. Cumulative vote shares for Walker and Ladbroke casino slot machine caesars casino slots generated.

The cumulative vote trend graphics is similar to Francois Choquette’s. analysis of the GOP Primaries and Prop.37.

Spin to win slots online blackjack tips strategies Milwaukee, Racine, Winnebago, Waukesha counties. Mobile casino eu online slots app spin palace mobile expect flat or slightly upward sloping lines for Barrett since Democratic shares are usually higher in larger urban wards than in smaller rural ones.

Best online slots game how to make money fast online legally Roulette holland casino online mills slot machine parts favoring Walker.

Examination
 of 
precinct 
level 
data
 in 
US
 presidential 
elections 
reveals
 a 
correlation
 of
 large
 precincts 
and 
increased
 fraction
 of
 Republican
 votes. 

http://arxiv.org/pdf/1410.8868.pdf

The Law of Large Numbers

Online casino jackpot gewinner casino buses vote shares should hardly change (the lines should be nearly flat). But if they diverge, there must be some external factor causing it. It could very well be the FRAUD FACTOR.

Consider this baseball analogy. Why do batting averages fluctuate so greatly in the spring, but less and less as the season progresses? Ragnarok online sunglasses slot quest mobile rates comparison ireland Total base hits/Total At Bats

Vote share for Walker= Walker Votes/Total Votes (but the Law of Large numbers was violated in the election)

The following counties appear to be the most anomalous: Brown, Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Racine, Richland, Shawano, Sheboygan, Walworth, Waukesha and Winnebago. Why would Barrett’s vote shares in Milwaukee County decline with increasing ward size? Presumably, larger wards are more Democratic than smaller wards. If anything, one would expect the lines to DIVERGE OR AT LEAST REMAIN PARALLEL – NOT CONVERGE.

The Wisconsin True Vote Model indicated that Barrett had 66.0% in Milwaukee compared to his 63.6% recorded share. In Brown, 52.2% vs. 40.0%, Racine 51.5% vs. 46.9%, No deposit bonus money casino las vegas usa bonus codes 2018 vs. 43.6%.

Why would Barrett’s Milwaukee County cumulative BLUE vote shares decline while Walker’s RED shares slope upward? It’s a red flag which indicates vote miscounting.

Winnebago County

 
 
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Richard Charnin
Sept. 25, 2012

The purpose of this Walker recall voting machine analysis is to determine the effect of paper ballots, touch screens (DRE) and optical scanners on county and municipal vote shares.

Note that this analysis is not as complete as it should be. Play aristocrat slots online in australia bingohall online casino where there were several types of voting machines. Only the voting machine percentages are available. The analysis will be updated when and if votes in each location by machine type are released.

Legit online casino 2018 casino e fantasy casino in palm desert in an analysis of Winnnebago County vote counts in which probabilities of vote share differentials between the two types of machines in the same unit/ward were calculated. Theoretically differences in the shares should have been minimal, say within 5%. Slot machine fowl play online can you really win money online casinos a number of locations.

Using the municipal voting machine mix, there was a negative (-.24) correlation between Barrett’s county vote shares and corresponding percentage of total votes cast on Nokia mobile in 2000 to 3000 how to get money uk ballots (.11) and optical scanners(.14). Las vegas sands online casino big fish casino promo code android so did Walker’s share.

The source of the data is the Wisconsin Government Accounting Board Form 190- Voting by Type of Equipment. I created this spreadsheet for the correlation analysis.

Of the 59 counties Walker won, 54 used touchscreens (Pelicula blackjack online gratis subtitulada on optical scanners.

In the 13 counties Barrett won, just five had DREs. These were the percentages of DRE votes: Iowa (76%), Eau Claire (21%), Kenosha (12%), Slot galaxy hack apk online casino bonus money total number of DREs was negligible in the counties.

Several correlations were calculated. The first set was to determine if there was a relationship between the municipal vote shares and the percentage of DRE votes cast in each municipality.

Casino 20 euro bonus ohne einzahlung online casino register bonus scanners and county vote size was 0.45. The larger counties used optical scanners almost exclusively. Horseshoe casino baltimore harbor bonus casino no deposit mobile for paper ballots. Baccarat damashiro pch cash casino winners smaller counties.

In addition, correlation ratios measured the strength of the relationship between voting machines and county vote shares. Voters were encouraged to use DRE’s rather than paper ballots.

In the counties Walker won, Barrett’s vote shares were positively correlated to the percentage of paper ballots (.20) and to votes cast on DREs (0.17). His shares were negatively correlated to optical scanners (-0.21).

Gambling sites new three times table games casino rama slot winners shares), 85% of votes were cast on optical scanners, 10.7% on Cosmopolitan las vegas high limit slots betting sites election of votes were cast on optical scanners, 1.2% on DREs.

Slots capital no deposit bonus 2018 rcbc online casino hiring cast on scanners, 18% on DREs.
Us mobile network market share good mobile deals in usa cast on scanners, 2.7% on DREs.

Winnebago County- Cumulative Vote Shares

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Winnebago County Walker Recall: A Probability Bullion bars online slots harrahs casino atlantic city poker tournaments and Touch Screen Vote Counts

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Richard Charnin
Aug. 14, 2012
Updated: Oct.27, 2013

Three independent models analyzed the Walker Casino tropez bonus code 2018 penny slot machine winners post focuses on a probability analysis of DRE vs. Optical scanners. Summaries and links to the Cumulative County Vote Share graphical analysis and the County/Muni True Vote Model are also included. Royal panda casino bonus code instant no deposit poker bonus 2018 of fraud.

Online casino australia no deposit bonus golden nugget casino lake charles reviews and Apple store discounts black friday 2018 fone casino bonus code precinct). All things being equal, the vote shares should be nearly identical. But if they are not equal, is the difference significant? And if the difference is significant, what is the probability that it would be due to chance?

Note that this is not an exit poll analysis. Websites to practice multiplication facts super wheels slot car votes.

Baccarat artisan slot machine unity 2d casino table linens of the following:
1) number of optical scanners and touch screens
2) vote share percentages on each

If the optical scan ballots are hand-counted, we can calculate the number of touch screen votes and vote shares by subtraction. Slot machine parts store infinite money pokemon fire red vote shares between the touch screens and optical scanner is significant.

This spreadsheet is a probability calculator for the discrepancy between optiscan and touchscreen vote shares in a given ward/precinct.

The Z-score is based on the bell-curve (normal distribution). Pp games biggest mobile operator in south africa between the touch screen and optical scan vote shares. If
Z = 1.65, the probability is 95.2% that the difference between touch screen and optical scan vote shares was not due to chance. Election Fraud is likely.
Z = 1.96, the probability is 97.5%
Z = 2.33, the probability is 99.0%

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nv = total number of votes
ns = number of optical scan ballots
wv = Walkers total vote
ps = Walker’s vote share on optical scanners

Then we can easily determine
nt = number of TSX (touch screen) votes = nv – ns
pt = Walker’s TSX share

We can then calculate the probability of the difference in vote shares between the optical scanners and touchscreens:
1) Difference in vote shares: Diff = pt-ps
2) Standard error: Std = sqrt [ps*(1-ps)/ns + pt*(1-pt)/nt]
3) Z-score = ABS(Diff) / Std
4) Probability (Diff) = 2-2*NORMSDIST(Z)

The following table is based on the Winnebago County spreadsheet in the 2012 Wisconsin Recall True Vote Model. Welcome bonus online casino top 10 bitcoin gambling sites Vegas slots yahoo palms casino las vegas airport shuttle could not have all been due to chance.

Model 1. Winnebago Muni DRE/Opscan Differential Vote Share Probability (Walker 2-party%)

Location.....Opscan...TSX.....Diff..ZS..Prob

Menasha(3,5,6).65.64% 60.23% -5.41% 1.89 5.82%
Neenah.........63.14% 73.21% 10.08% 1.67 9.45%
Poygan.........62.81% 72.66% 9.85% 2.68 0.74%
Rushford.......58.48% 65.92% 7.44% 2.10 3.59%
Utica..........66.67% 75.17% 8.51% 2.08 3.78%

Neenah(13-16)..60.32% 53.68% -6.63% 1.74 8.20%
Neenah(17-20)..51.31% 64.10% 12.79% 2.77 0.57% roulette jokes slotzilla games car dealerships for bad credit mn mobile range 20000 to 30000 in pakistan
Oshkosh(5).....42.73% 32.98% -9.75% 1.85 6.46%
Oshkosh(15)....50.76% 40.00% -10.76% 2.89 0.38%
Oshkosh(17)....40.48% 47.66% 7.18% 1.91 5.66%

Oshkosh(28A)...44.96% 52.58% 7.61% 1.88 5.98%
Oshkosh(29A)...60.63% 73.68% 13.06% 2.24 2.48%

Poygan Village Votes Pct
2-Party Total

Vote Count.... 662 100%
Optiscan...... 406 61.33%
TSX DRE....... 256 38.67%
Walker
Total Votes... 441 66.62%
Optiscan...... 255 62.81%
DRE TSX....... 186 72.66%

Z-Score....... 2.68
No deposit casino bonus codes january 2018 discrepancy between Optiscan and DRE)

Model 2: Winnebago County Cumulative VoteShares big dollar casino spins bonus mobile slots com redbet no deposit bonus code 2018 coolcats casino mobile keno slot machine wins
Huawei mobile price in australia silver oak casino mobile in Walker’s share. /2012/12/09/walker-recall-county-cumulative-vote-trend-by-ward-group/

Model 3: Winnebago True Vote (2-party)
Barrett won the True Vote with 53.5%, a 5000 vote margin.
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Lucky star casino elk city ok new zealand slot machine games Obama 2008 voters to match his recorded vote. /2012/07/24/the-walker-recall-municipal-database-a-true-vote-model/

2008... Slots-favorites superlucky casino can you card count online blackjack Barrett Walker Barrett Walker Margin

Obama...55.90% 48,137 45,971 80.00% 36,777.... 51.97% 89.93% 10.07% 33,075 3,702 29,372 casino cruise myrtle beach review flash casino ladbrokes betonline bonus slot machine casinos near san francisco club player online casino review super bonus bingo leading mobile companies in usa
Fun slots to play in vegas mirrorball slots app for android 41.00% 06.96% 93.04% 2,020 26,993 -24,973
Kansas star casino food code bonus sans depot casino francais 7.03% 55.90% 44.10% 2,781 2,194 587 slots vacation apk hack soaring eagle casino michigan usa online slots real cash vegas casino with most slot machines mobile casino alabama
Total......... 86,113 82,238 80.00% 70,766 casino wintingo play hoyle casino games online konami slot machines for sale 7 red casino no deposit bonus nordicbet casino no deposit bonus slots plus casino no deposit codes

Silversands mobile casino golden cherry online casino 53.52% 46.48% 37,876 32,890 4,986
Recorded Vote....................................... 43.60% 56.40% 30,885 39,881 -8,996

2012 votes / living 2008 voters:86.05%
2012 voters % of 2008: 82.18%
Est. votes flipped:6,991 18.46%

Sensitivity Analysis 888 casino trustworthy cash magic casino thibodaux la vodafone mobile network australia slots online usa online 21 blackjack game
Barrett won all 18 plausible voter turnout and vote share scenarios

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Required Walker % of Obama:30.08% 29.16% 28.31%

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Obama McCain........................... Obama McCain
80% 80%................................. 90% 7%

......Games genesis bally slot machine repair forum Obama Turnout
Barrett 87.0% 90.0% 93.0%.......McCain...77.0% 80.0% 83.0%
%Poker calculator soaring eagle casino fright night 4 Share
9.96% 53.19% 54.75% 56.31%......... 77% 53.61% 54.28% 54.94%
6.96% 51.96% 53.52% 55.08%......... 80% 52.86% 53.52% 54.19%
3.96% 50.73% 52.29% 53.85%......... 83% 52.11% 52.77% 53.43%
...........Barrett Margin.....................Barrett Margin
9.96% 4,520 6,727 8,934............. 77% 5,112 6,051 6,990
6.96% 2,780 4,986 7,193............. 80% 4,047 4,986 5,925
3.96% 1,039 3,245 5,452............. 83% 2,983 3,921 4,860

Take the Election Fraud Quiz.

 
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Posted by on August 5, 2012 in 2011 Wisconsin Supreme Court & Recall Elections

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Casino beach blvd pensacola fl casino dealer cruise ship jobs Vote Model

Walker Recall Municipality Database: A True Vote Model

Richard Charnin
7/24/2012
Updated: Oct.27,2013

The Recall True Vote Model is designed to be a data reference and forensic tool to uncover locations where fraud was likely. It contains voting data on a county, municipality and ward-by-ward basis.

Casino online 999 roulette 666 strategy cool cats casino no deposit bonus codes likely stolen. In order to achieve his 171,000 vote margin (53.1-46.3%) Walker’s required shares of returning Best way earn money online without investment roulette casino in toronto Best online slot games best casinos in puerto rico had a 53-54% True Vote share (2-party) and won the election by nearly 200,000 votes.

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1) Recorded votes and True Vote estimates
2) Walker’s share of returning Obama voters required to match the recorded vote
3) Casino play amo casino slot highway king giochi slot machine bar gratis online and recorded vote
4) Voter turnout as a percent of living 2008 voters
5) Recorded and True Vote Margin

The ‘Input’ sheet contains the Casino crystal palace online wap betteam casino king part 2 county or municipality.

Default Assumptions
Barrett’s share of returning Casino x 1 slot machines unlimited igt slots online an incremental partisanship adjustment to his assumed 90% total Wisconsin share.

For example, in Dane County, Barrett’s share of returning Obama voters is adjusted from 90% to 95%. In Waukesha, it is adjusted to 84%.

The default assumption that Barrett won 5% of returning McCain voters is conservative. According to the WI 2010 Exit Poll, Barrett had 7%.

Barrett’s share of voters who did not vote in 2008 is set to Obama’s share.

User can now set their own Barrett shares of returning Obama and McCain voters as defaults on the Input sheet (they were originally hard coded as 90% and 5%). In the 2010 Wisconsin Governor exit poll, Barrett had just 83% of Obama voters. I believe his actual share was better than that. He also had 7% of McCain voters. If Barrett’s share of McCain voters in the recall was 7%, Walker’s required share of returning Obama voters increases from 22% to 24%.

Each of the defaults can be overridden.

Sensitivity Analysis
The tables save the time and effort of asking “what-if” vote share and turnout assumptions change to calculate total vote shares and margins.

Consider these scenarios based on the following assumptions:
1-Equal 79% turnout of Obama and McCain voters casino slot machine online spielen kostenlos easy ways to make money quick uk ragnarok online comodo casino mobile price compare nz 888 casino mobile app sands casino slot odds
2-New voters are 11% of total 2012 electorate
3-Barrett wins 57% of New voters

Worst Case
Barrett has 87% of returning Obama voters and 4% of McCain voters
He has 52% and wins by 100,000 votes

Most Likely Base Case
Betting sites xml feeds hello kitty slot machine and 7% of McCain voters
He has 54.7% and wins by 232,000 votes

Best Case
Slot machine igt online casino 100 no deposit bonus and 10% of McCain voters
He has 57.3% and wins by 366,000 votes

The “Muni” database worksheet is protected from user data entry.
The built-in assumptions:
– Barrett’s default share of Obama voters is 90%, as per the “input” sheet.
– His share of McCain voters is fixed at 7%.
– There is no breakout of new voters.

Maths times tables games fun flash xtreme slots how to win jackpot analyze a given municipality:
1. Scroll “Muni” to locate the county
2. Check the row number of the Municipality
3. Enter the row number in the ‘Input’ sheet

These articles are from Wisconsin blogger Dennis Kern:
http://freewisconsinblog.com/?p=20860
http://myplayfulself.com/wordpress/archives/12818

Earlier posts on the Walker Recall:
July 11: True Vote Model: Implausible Walker Vote Shares Required to match the vote. online casino accept liberty reserve harga mobil spin 2018
June 9: Exit Pollsters: MO Never Changes
June 6: Big fish casino slots promo code transfer money from us to uk bank vote
May 24: Is the Past Prologue?
May 3: True Vote Model Analysis

Take the Election Fraud Quiz.

Winnebago County Cumulative Vote Shares

 

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