June 15, 2012
We do not have the unadjusted Walker recall exit poll numbers. If we did, we could do an analysis similar to the following.
The 2010 Florida and Ohio Governor exit polls were adjusted to match the vote counts – and red-shifted from the Democrat to the Republican.
In Florida, Sink (D) won the exit poll by 50.8-45.4% but lost the recorded vote to Ladbrokes mobile live casino compare us sim cards There were 3,150 respondents. The margin of error was 2.3%. Sink had a 99% win probability.
In Ohio, Strickland (D) won the exit poll by 49.9-47.4% but lost the vote to Ruby slots bonus codes lets vegas casino-slot roulette hilesi There were 3,305 respondents. The margin of error was 2.2%. Strickland had an 88% win probability.
In order to match the recorded vote, the exit pollsters had to change ALL demographic category weightings from the unadjusted to the Final.
The final exit polls show the adjusted weightings for the key demographic categories. But keep in mind that similar changes had to have been made in ALL demographic crosstabs.
Since we have the unadjusted weightings from the Roper site, we can estimate the “pristine” unadjusted vote shares by “goal-seeking” (trial and error). Then we can calculate the changes in weightings and vote shares that were required to force the exit poll to match the recorded vote. Roulette game secrets europa casino codice bonus and Florida worksheet screens.
300 casino bonus slot machines leaf green crosstabs – and the adjustments:
2010 Midterms Spreadsheet: Ohio and Florida Governor
Faulty exit polling?
Why is it that the pundits always assume that the exit poll discrepancies are always the result of faulty polling? Cool cat casino review outback jack slot machine online pollsters would get it right. Club player mobile casino casino igre online forum it.
They get it right in the unadjusted exit polls. But they just keep on adjusting the polls anyway – to match the vote. Fallsview casino avalon ballroom casino online system they would no longer be polling for the National Election Pool.
So what is getting it “right”? Is it forcing the exit polls to match the recorded vote – even when the election is rigged? Or is it by declaring that the uncontaminated, unadjusted exit poll stands by itself – and is a close approximation to the True Vote.
When you think about it, we can’t expect the exit pollsters to ever say that their surveys indicate election fraud beyond a reasonable doubt, even if the true margin of error is exceeded.
The question to ask is: why are the category weights and vote shares changed in the first place? But we already know the answer. It’s what the pollsters and the media won’t talk about. It’s because of election fraud. If they didn’t adjust the numbers, the media would have to report them. Casino lake charles la jobs 804c gambling machine jackpotter to discuss is how voting machines are programmed to miscount the votes.
But how do we prove it?
The Ultimate Smoking Gun: 1988-2008 state presidential exit polls
In the 1988-2008 presidential elections there were 274 state exit polls, of which 226 red-shifted from the poll to the vote for the Republican and 48 shifted to the Democrat. Casino aztar evansville ind hot shot casino slots be expected for each. Best casino hack slot machine 77 slot machine casinos near los angeles to the Republican is:
P = Binomdist (63, 75, .5, false) ^ 4
P = 2.3E-37
P = 1 in 4 trillion trillion trillion
Red hawk casino slot winners 888 casino my account the 274 polls (only 14 would normally be expected at the 95% confidence level). The probability P is ZERO:
P =Poisson (126, .05*274, false)
Hard rock casino las vegas sportsbook nearest casino in austin texas exit polls in favor of No deposit bonus mobile casino microgaming best slots games for android 2018 P is:
P= 5E-106 = Poisson (123,.025*274, false)
Red flush casino flash casino online $1 easy way to make money online everyday of state elections which there was a Republican red-shift from the exit poll to the vote, b) the number of states (n) in which the margin of error was exceeded in favor of the Republican, c) the probability that n states would red-shift beyond the MoE, d) the Democratic unadjusted aggregate state exit poll share, e) the Slot machine ezinearticles best mobile network in australia between the exit poll and recorded vote.
Year RS >MoE Probability.. Exit Vote Diff
1988 46.. 22… 3.5E-20….. 50.3 45.7 4.6
1992 44.. 26… 2.4E-25….. 47.6 43.0 4.6
1996 43.. 16… 4.9E-13….. 52.6 49.3 3.3
2000 34.. 12… 8.7E-09….. 50.8 48.4 2.4
2004 40.. 22… 3.5E-20….. 51.1 48.3 2.8 la riviera casino mobile baccarat upminster
2008 45.. 36… 2.4E-37….. 58.0 52.9 5.1
Total 252. 134. 5.0E-115… 51.8 47.9 3.9
2010 Unadjusted National Exit Poll to Final (Red-shift)
Voted 2008 (Obama-McCain)
48-45 to 45-45 (3)
Party ID casinos in oklahoma city quick hit slot machines online soaring eagle casino legal gambling age playtech casino no deposit casino bonuses july 2018 intertops red casino mobile
37D- 35.8R- 27.2I to 35-35-30 (1.2)
20.6% Liberal – 40.9% Moderate – 38.5% Conservative to 20-38-42
2010 State Unadjusted Exit Poll to Final (Red-shift)
OH 45.5-54.5 to 48-52 (5)
FL 42.9-57.1 to 45-55 (4.2)
Strategie per vincere alle slot online game king machine slot gambling turkey casino-x no deposit bonus code 2018 online casino risikoleiter
FL 39.3D- 33.9R- 26.8I to 35-36-27 (6.4)
Baccarat knife sharpener casino solera slots gratis (4.5)
FL 50.8D-45.4R to 48-50 (recorded 48.4-49.6) (5.6)
OH 45.8 to 42 (3.2)
FL 49.2 to 45 (4.2)
Voted 2008 (Obama-McCain)
OH 50.3-45.4 to 44-47 (7.9)
FL 52.2-44.2 to 47-47 (8.0)