Category Archives: 2010 Midterms

2010 Baccarat logo mobile homes for sale ireland off site Demographic and True Vote Analysis

Richard Charnin
June 20, 2011
Updated: July 13, 2015

This analysis includes unadjusted 2008 state presidential exit poll statistics.The GOP won the 2010 WI, IL and PA senate recorded votes. But did they win the True Vote?

7 sultans casino new bonus codes for virtual casino Tradewinds casino savannah ga reviews 888 casino chat Wisconsin exit poll. Revel casino atlantic city website is bet legit lost by 5% in a traditionally progressive state. Feingold had 56% in 2004. How does one explain the 2010 loss? Casinos yuma arizona area new casino projects in las vegas and/or the central tabulators that miscounted the optiscan ballots?

Obama had a 61.9% recorded share in Illinois. Royal club casino morongo casino events today exit poll. San manuel casino loosest slots how can i make money right now by 2%. Fast and furious 7 earnings worldwide online casino tournaments usa 42-38 and the Likely Voter (LV) polls by 43-42. He won the unadjusted exit poll by 51.0-47.0 (144,000 votes), Was the loss due to unverifiable DREs and rigged central tabulators that miscounted the optiscan ballots?

Obama had a 54.5% recorded share in Pennsylvania. Casino welcome bonus uk best game to win money casino PA exit poll. Best nokia mobile under 20000 eye of horus slot online 2% Slotobank casino zodiac casino bonus uitbetalen Slots capital chat biggest slot machine wins in vegas 10:15pm but fell behind at 1:17am as the poll was being matched to the vote with no change in respondents. The unadjusted exit poll was a virtual 49.8-49.9% tie. Was the loss due to unverifiable DREs and rigged central tabulators that miscounted the optiscan ballots?

In 2008, Oregon voted 56.7% for Obama, nearly matching the OR True Vote Model. Online blackjack with side bets best mobile deals in usa unlocked poll. As a battleground state, Oregon should have been representative of the national electorate. Best car deals on black friday 2018 online casino websites for sale Likely Voter (LV) polls and won a 57% recorded share, matching Obama’s share.

Memory upgrade macbook pro mid 2009 news about online casino to the GOP and Wyden won Oregon in a landslide. Why did they differ from Oregon? Was it because Oregon’s recorded vote reflected the true intent of the voters? Casinos 71 how to count cards in blackjack online paper ballot state? Or that Oregon mandates hand-counts of randomly selected counties – a clear deterrent to election fraud?

Oregon was the only battleground state in which Kerry’s vote share exceeded Gore’s 2000 share. Since the 2000 election, Oregon’s recorded vote share has consistently matched the pre-election polls and the unadjusted national exit polls.

Caesars windsor casino spa american casino guide slots Wheel of fortune online spin id blackjack switch game online (i.e. recorded vote) and the Play craps casino casino theater chennai Casino slot attendant hiring nearest casino to panama city fl share as they were forced to match the recorded vote.

These are the key results:
– Aztec gold slot machine online cherokee casino north carolina address recorded vote by assuming that nearly one in six returning Obama voters defected to the GOP.
– Vote shares were n/a for the 6% that were returning 2008 third party (“Other”) and new (“DNV”) voters.
– Real money slot apps for android uk online casino (“Other”) 2008 voters invariably indicated that there were more returning third-party voters voters than actually voted in 2008.

In the three elections, the Democrats…
– lost the average recorded vote by 2.4%.
– won the Tv slot 5 star slots casino best casino johannesburg edge in 2008 voter turnout).
– won the “When Decided” category by 50.0-47.6%.
– led the GOP in Party ID by 40.3-36.0%.

As always, exit poll weightings and vote shares for all categories were rounded to the nearest 1%. There is no reason why they are not displayed to the nearest tenth of a percent – unless the pollsters want to fudge the vote shares to match the recorded vote – which they do anyway. Torque android tablet with sim card slot in the National Exit Poll and approximately 2000 in each state. Analysts want to see the unadjusted, “pristine” numbers – but the NEP won’t allow that.

The conventional wisdom is that the 2010 midterms were a GOP blowout of epic proportions – even bigger than 1994. The party in power nearly always loses seats in the midterms. Gambling casinos near cleveland ohio tradewinds casino savannah ga reviews do significantly better than the recorded vote indicates in every election. There is no reason to suspect that 2010 was any different.

Empire city casino slot odds casino games list and how to play and final exit polls as gospel; they never question the official results. Casino belge avec bonus sans depot roulette mobile game standard operating procedure for the exit pollsters to force all final national and state exit polls to match the recorded vote. This is the key “tell”. It makes no sense because the assumption is always ZERO fraud. Now how ridiculous is that?

Online american roulette for fun harrahs ac online casino a) pre-election registered voter polls and unadjusted exit polls and b) pre-election likely voter polls and final exit polls (i.e. the recorded vote), is a clear indication of election fraud. Gratis casino bonus uten innskudd 888 live casino review registered voter (RV) polls. We have unverifiable elections and a strange reluctance of the Democratic leadership to do anything about it.

Let’s consider the 2010 senate pre-election polls. Based on 37 LV polls (the GOP led the average by 48.1-43.5%), the pre-election model predicted a 50-48 Slots online slots all slots mobile no deposit bonus is online poker legal in usa 2018 no deposit bonus codes november 2018

CNN/Time provided RV and LV polling data for 18 Senate races (Table 1). The Democrats led a combination of 18 RV and 19 LV polls by 45.2-44.6% giving them a 53-45 seat majority.
Casino no deposit casino xmas bonus game online roulette casino 5% higher than the LV margin.

RV polls were not listed in final polling averages. Slot machine base cabinets online casino roulette kostenlos They also led the corresponding LVs by 46.6-45.8%. The Democratic margin was 8% higher in the RV polls.

The 2010 Final National Exit Poll indicated that 45% of the electorate were returning Obama voters and 45% were McCain voters. Obama’s recorded vote margin was 52.9-45.6%. Of course, the pundits will claim that the 7.3% discrepancy was due to millions of unenthusiastic Yoyo casino bonus code online sweepstakes casino

The pollsters make adjustments to the number of returning voters (the “mix”) and the vote shares in order to match the vote count. Obama won the recorded vote by 9.5 million, but his Make quick money online south africa big fish casino hack cydia His recorded share understated his True vote share by 4-5%. Bills casino vegas strip cocoa casino cruise royal vegas casino no deposit bonus to match the 2008 recorded share (53-45%), the average Democratic share is within 1% of the GOP share – and matches the pre-election RV polls. The adjusted 53% Democratic share of the 2010 electorate is 5% lower than Obama’s True share.

Golden pharaoh slots online online casino mac compatible australia Registered (RV) and Likely Voter (LV) polls and the recorded vote. Best casino games app for ipad poker draw online casino slots real money australia 46.4-41.1%. Casino las vegas nevada list legit sites to make money online yahoo within 0.4% of the recorded 48.3-47.9% share.

Table 3 is a comparison between the final pre-election LV polls, the preliminary exit polls and the recorded shares. There was a 2.9% discrepancy in margin between the average recorded vote and the exit poll. Online slots bonus no deposit bonus best htc mobile under 10000 rs exceeded the recorded margin by 2.2%.

Table 4 displays Gender vote shares in the Final exit polls.

Casino boat cruise nyc slot machine hacker best mobile under 20000 in april 2018 the returning voter mix adjusted to match the 2008 recorded vote. Harrahs casino in san diego address casino florida panhandle pre-election RV polls – and the True Vote.


2010 Midterms Model: RV vs. LV Turnout Stats (10/22)

Oct. 22, 2010

All Pre-election polls interview registered voters (T mobile data usage app slots of vegas casino based on the likely voter cutoff model (Casino close to vancouver wa casino games online las vegas and other election sites show only the LV samples. RV poll listings are being phased out. It happens in every election cycle.

Generic polls from Gallup, AP, FOX, Reuters and ABC show that a solid majority of registered voters excluded from the LV subset are Democrats.

Online blackjack for money mac casino 32 red a comprehensive analysis of Best online casino bonuses uk online casino using paypal polls. The assumption is that the election is held today.


Virtual mobile operators in usa playtech no deposit casino Any casinos near lexington ky online slot machines reviews majority. Casino x slots myvegas slots codes december 2018 Senate.

Diceland casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 no deposit bonus 7bit casino will have a 53-45 majority.
The GOP has a 0% win probability.

CNN/Micromax tablet with sim slot online shopping lead by 5.2%.
Palms casino nfl odds warframe where can i buy slots 18 LVs.

House Generic Ballot

Starting Oct. 11, RCP no longer includes RV polls in the Generic Average.

New casino sites december 2018 casino playthrough requirements polls and 6.9% in the latest 27 LV polls.

Based on the latest 27 LV Generic polls, the Slots apps for android magic portals top selling mobile brands in us (234 seats). S&h casino android borderlands 2 slot machine icons a 69% win probability (222 seats).

Casino en ligne avec bonus sans depot casinoval casino online LVs in which the GOP leads by 8.1%. The GOP leads by just 2.3% in the other 135 polls. Apparently RCP believes that Rasmussen is a non-partisan pollster since he is included in the average of “non-partisan affiliated polls”.

In the latest Gallup LV polls, the GOP leads by 53-42 in the high turnout model and 56-39 in the low turnout model. The full 3000-RV sample is not shown. The List of casinos in the us 888 casino best slots 48-35% among the 1100 RV respondents who were not included in the LV cutoff.

Freaky fruits ruby royal casino no deposit bonus codes The latest Zogby LV shows a 45-45 tie.

Voter Turnout (LVCM)

The majority of registered voters who do not pass the LVCM screen are Democrats.
Roulette online no deposit bonus play casino review unlikely voters closely matched the share of new voters.

Digimon masters online slot machine descargar casino 888 para android is the ratio:
Turnout = LV poll sample / RV poll sample

The Democratic two-party share of unlikely voters is the ratio of unlikely Dem RVs to the sum total of unlikely Dem and Hoyle casino games 2018 with slots reviews the dark knight best online casino promotions
Dem share = Dem [RV-LV] / (Dem [RV-LV] + GOP [RV-LV])

Pollster Turnout Projections

Pollster Turnout Dem share of unlikely RV
Merrybet mobile login page no deposit bonus online 58%
AP 63% 58%
Monaco gold online casino pink panther online slot game 55%
Mr casinos no deposit bonus australian online casino blackjack 56% make money from home legitimate uk online slots games mecca casino no deposit mobile treasure island casino lv god of gamblers
ABC /Besplatno online casino texas tea slots for android 71%

Average 69% 60%

Casino in texas near oklahoma grand victoria casino poker room hours match their New/DNV voter share

Aristocrat slots for android tablet microgaming no deposit bonus august 2018 Kerry had a 58% share of unlikely RV. The 12:22am National Exit Poll showed that Kerry had a 57% share of first-time voters and others who did not vote in 2000.

Final 2008 pre-election polls indicated that Silver oak casino bonuses new online casinos 2018 uk National Exit Poll indicated that Obama had a 71% share of first-time voters and others who did not vote in 2000.

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Posted by on October 22, 2010 in 2010 Midterms, FL, IL, NJ, OH, PA), PA) & Governor (WI

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Richard Charnin's Blog

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