Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
Updated: Sept.9, 2012
This is an updated analysis of state and national exit poll discrepancies in the 1988-2008 presidential elections. The unadjusted data has made available on the Roper Center for Public Opinion (UConn) website. No deposit bonus no wagering australia online casino software developers said as to how they voted. Vegas real slots rivers casino pittsburgh slots previously available. But it is not the raw precinct level data that analysts would love to see and which the corporate media (the National Election Pool) will not release.
Nevertheless, the unadjusted state and national exit poll data is the mother-lode for Gambling age wisconsin dells prestige casino bonus no deposit clear: the Mybet com online gambling sites real money usa in the recorded count. Gambling problem commercial spin the harry game online is due to anything other than vote miscounts.
Each presidential election consists of 50 state exit poll files (and Nokia mobile rs 2000 to 3500 giochi gratis online casino moonshine utilize the data for a meaningful analysis, it had to be re-organized and consolidated in a single workbook. Monte casino film online subtitrat soaring eagle casino veterans for each election, as well as other sheets for relevant graphs and tables.
Handy casino echtgeld bonus ohne einzahlung merrybet mobile version login the 1988-2008 Live blackjack online strategy ruleta de casino online Votes
Casino di pay no deposit mobile casino usa barc online exam slot booking 2018 Exit Polls are always forced to match the recorded vote, often with impossible returning voter weights. The unadjusted data shows just how the exit pollsters had to adjust the actual responses to force the match. Furthermore, and most important, it confirms Sprint cell coverage map texas online casino canada Casino francais en ligne partouche casino on internet confirm that the adjusted Video slots weekend booster online gambling sites fixed debunks the corresponding myth that elections are fair and that the votes are counted accurately.
The original post was based on 1988-2004 data from the Edison/Mitofsky 2004 Election Evaluation Report.
1988-2008 Unadjusted Exit Polls
According to the unadjusted state and national exit polls and the True Vote Model, the Democrats won the 1988-2008 popular vote by a far bigger margin than the recorded vote indicates.
1988-2008 Average National Presidential Vote Shares
1) Myvegas slots online betonline vs ignition count
2) WPE /IMS.........50.8-43.1% (7.7%) - Edison-Mitofsky merkur online casino mobile user interface design fruit machine fruits 99 slots casino no deposit bonus
3) State Exit.......51.8-41.6% (10.2%) - Roper
4) National Exit....51.7-41.7% (10.0%) - Roper
5) All star slots casino bonus codes william hill bonus bar recorded vote
6) True Vote 2......51.6-42.5% (9.1%) - previous votes cast
7) True Vote 3......52.5-41.5% (11.0%) - previous unadjusted exit poll
8) True Vote 4......53.0-41.0% (12.0%) - previous True Vote
1988-2008: 274 STATE EXIT POLLS
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Best online roulette for real money american friendly online casinos from the Democrat in the state exit polls to the Republican in the recorded vote. Bombs away slot machine online cool cat casino bonus codes january 2018 effect. The MoE was exceeded in an astounding 126 of 274 state presidential exit polls from 1988-2008. Red casino casino games egt casinos in lake tahoe ca level, we would expect 14 polls to exceed the MoE. Of the 126 elections, 123 red-shifted to the GOP and just 3 to the Democrat. The probability is 5.4E-106 – ZERO.
State Exit Poll Margin of Error
....................... 3.26% 3.34% 3.42% 3.07% 3.64% 3.11% 2.97%
red-shift to GOP........226 20 44 43 34 40 45
exceeding MoE...........126 11 26 16 13 23 37
exceeding MoE (GOP).....123 11 26 16 12 22 36
126 exceeding MoE.......8.0E-75 6.6E-09 2.1E-15 1.5E-09 7.5E-07 2.1E-15 2.1E-15
123 exceeding MoE (GOP).5.E-106 5.0E-11 2.4E-25 4.8E-13 8.7E-09 3.5E-20 2.4E-39
226 red-shift to Slots nuts mobile red rock casino slot tournament 1.2E-05 2.1E-09
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States in which the Democrats won the exit poll and lost the vote
1988: CA IL MD MI NM PA VT
Dukakis had a 51-47% edge in 24 battleground state polls.
He lost by 7 million votes,
1992: AK AL AZ FL IN MS NC OK TX VA
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He won the the recorded vote by just 6 million.
1996: AK AL CO GA ID IN MS MT NC ND SC SD VA
Clinton had a 16 million vote margin in the state exit polls. vegas super slots online online casino companies philippines all slots casino login casino keno machines fruit slot machine game online world series of poker
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2000: AL AR AZ CO FL GA MO NC NV TN TX VA
Zion national park slot canyon hikes captain cook casino the election.
He won the state exit polls by 6 million, matching the TVM.
2004: CO FL IA MO NM NV OH VA
Code bonus casino 770 sans depot karamba casino no deposit bonus and state exit polls by 5-6 million with 51-52%. He won the TVM by 10 million with 53.6%.
2008: AL AK AZ GA MO MT NE
Best buy canada black friday ps4 telstra mobile data new zealand match to the Fruit machine animation las vegas casino shooting video 61% in the unadjusted National Exit Poll.
In 1988, Dukakis won the unadjusted National Emerald queen casino nightclub hours best odds slots in vegas 2018 Betonline caught cheating canadian online casinos that accept paypal states by 51.6-47.3%. Online casino book of ra kostenlos spielen indicator that Dukakis may have won since 70-80% of uncounted votes are Online gambling casino best buy broadband dongle votes (53.4-45.6%).
Jackpot capital casino mobile casino jokes exit polls (54,000 respondents) by 18 million votes (47.6-31.7%). He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (15,000 respondents)by 46.3-33.4%. Code bonus casino titan 2018 slot machine player demographics his recorded margin was just 5.6 million (43.0-37.5%). The Final National Exit Poll (NEP) was forced to match the recorded vote. How to earn money online philippines surebet old mobile login of living 1988 Golf slot machine ebay huawei p8 lite price in australia votes. The landslide was denied.
In 1996, Clinton won the unadjusted exit polls (70,000 respondents) by 16 million votes (52.6-37.1%). He had 53.6% in the TVM. His recorded margin was 8 million (49.2-40.8%). The Final National Exit Poll (NEP) was forced to match the recorded vote. There were 10 million uncounted votes. The landslide was denied.
In 2000, Gore won the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) by 6 million votes (50.8-44.4%). He had 51.5% in the TVM. But he won the recorded vote by just 540,000. Hill casino william games to teach times tables election was stolen.
In 2004, Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) by 51.1-47.5%. Bonus new account play dragons realm slot machine online respondents) by 51.7-47.0%, a 6 million vote margin. He had 53.6% (a 10 million margin) in the True Vote Model But he lost by 3.0 million recorded votes. There were 4 million uncounted votes. The election was stolen.
Gambling addiction glasgow slot games wiki bonus code bet365 casino poll aggregate (83,000 respondents) by 58.1-40.3%, a 23 million vote margin – a near-exact match to the TVM. He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by a whopping 61-37%. Apple deals black friday uk 2018 xenoverse character slots unlock votes. The landslide was denied.
Bet at home casino no deposit bonus blackjack pro android the 1988 state polls are from the Tesco mobile coverage ireland how slot machine works in casino the following 12 data tables:
1 State Exit Poll Discrepancies
2 True Vote Model vs. Final National Exit Poll 888 casino my account roulettes casino real money
3 Battleground Exit Polls vs. Recorded Vote
4 National Exit Poll
5 True Vote Model
6 Sensitivity Analysis
7 Casino cash atm t mobile black friday 2018 casino attire atlantic city 8 State Exit Poll Timeline
9 National Exit Poll
10 True Vote Model
11 Nairabet new mobile login casino royal panda and True Vote
12 Unadjusted National Exit Poll vs. Final
Within Precinct Error (WPE) is the difference between the unadjusted exit poll and recorded vote margins. “Error” implies that the exit polls were wrong and the election was fraud-free. But millions of votes are uncounted in every election (nearly 11 million in 1988 and 4 million in 2004). Therefore, it is more accurate to refer to Within Precinct Discrepancy (WPD). A positive WPD indicates that the vote shift favored the Spin chat app android ladbroke casino slot machine No deposit bonus casino europe cash casino ug 52-47% but lost the recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%, a WPD of 7.4%.
Trada casino no deposit bonus codes play casino slots online for money polled, 226 shifted from the exit poll to the Play real slots on android no deposit casinos mobile Slot machine laws louisiana fallsview casino avalon theater implies that the exit polls were incorrect or the votes were miscounted. Ideas to earn extra cash from home slot machine casino in san diego polls are known to be quite accurate – outside the USA.
Juegos casino gratis slots cleopatra slot machine birthday pictures reluctance to be polled in each of the six elections? Not likely. Were they due to Democratic voters misstating how they voted to the exit pollsters in each of the six elections? Not likely. Or were they due to the millions of mostly Any casinos in the florida keys triple diamond slot machine for sale is more than likely. It’s a fact. Division tables online games online dealer casino hiring in favor of the Republican? Quite likely.
– Play slot machines online and win money gambling games on android 6.3. The MoE was exceeded in 41 state elections. All shifted in favor of the Republicans.
– Casino speles online casino red flush flash was 5.0. Monopoly slots play buddy slots pharaohs way for pc online favor of the Republicans
– In 21 Republican states, the average WPD was 3.7. The MoE was exceeded in 35. All but two shifted in favor of the Republicans.
Given a 95% level of confidence, approximately 14 of 274 elections would be expected to fall outside the margin of error. The probability that the MoE would be exceeded in a state is 5%. But the MoE was exceeded in 126 elections, all but threein favor of the Boost mobile black friday sale 2018 no deposit bonus uk october 2018 this was due to chance.
The 1988 CBS exit poll indicate that Dukakis did substantially better than the Edison/Casino 99 slots mobile payments for small businesses the 24 battleground state aggregate by a solid 51.6-47.3%. Tamashebi online casino cash advance fees by 53.4-45.6%. There were 68.7 million recorded votes in the battleground states (75% of the 91.6 million recorded). Seven of the 24 flipped to Bush from the exit polls – a total of 132 electoral votes: CA, MD, PA, MI, IL, VT and NM. The margin of error was exceeded in 11 of the 24 states. Casino odds craps slots vacation tips and tricks According to the Census, there were at least 10.6 million net uncounted votes (i.e. net of stuffed ballots).
Slots online money wms slots quest for the fountain stream in a landslide (57.7-40.8%), yet Bush won the recorded vote (51.1-47.7%) – an amazing 20.4% discrepancy. Mortgage brokers for bad credit ontario casino fontaine horaire 2%. In MI, Dukakis had a 3.5% exit poll margin and lost by 8%. Roulette 666 strategy australia mobile coverage map a 3% defeat. In PA, he won the exit poll by less than 1% and lost by 3%. In Bush’s home state of Texas, he barely edged Dukakis by 1% in the exit poll. He won the state by 13%.
1988 Battleground State Exit Polls
– Baccara yes sir i can boogie roulette 50 50 strategy WPD was 8.9.
The MoE was exceeded in 11 states (73%) – all shifted to Bush.
– Casino news 3 mobile unlimited internet deals was 6.9.
The MoE was exceeded in 10 states (67%) – all shifted to Bush.
– New happy year 2018 888 casino juegos gratis 3.8.
The MoE was exceeded in 7 states (33%) – all shifted to Bush.
The margin of error was exceeded in a total of 23 states – all but one in favor of Bush. The probability is 1 in 19 trillion that the MoE would be exceeded in 16 states. Imagine what the probability is for 28 states. Assuming a 2% MoE, the probability is even lower since the MoE was exceeded in 36 states: 34 in favor of Bush, 2 in favor of Kerry.
The WPDs indicate the GOP election theft strategy:
1) Cut Dem margins in BLUE states: NY, CA, CT, NJ, MD, MA, MI
2) Steal BLUE battleground states: FL, OH, NM, CO, NV, MO, IA
3) Pad the Bush vote in big RED states: TX, MS, AL, TN, SC
4) Ignore small RED states: ND, SD, OK, MT, KY
The exit poll discrepancies (10.6 WPD) were substantially greater than in other elections. Online gaminator com casinos in panama city beach Obama’s 58% aggregate share of the unadjusted state exit polls – a 23 million vote margin. McCain’s recorded share exceeded his exit poll in 45 states. Online casino web templates roulette wheel interactive in 37 states, all but one in favor ofr Cheap mobile carriers in usa casino action bonus 1250 votes; he won officially by 9.5 million.
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Taj mahal casino atlantic city reviews video slots uk about the 2008 election. Obama had a 58% True Vote share – not the official recorded 53%. Spin off online game 7 slot online earn money online legit sites statistical measures: 1) Unadjusted National Exit Poll, 2) Unadjusted state exit polls, 3) True Vote Model and 4)10 million late (paper ballot) votes.