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How the Final 2004 and 2008 National Exit Polls were forced to match the recorded vote

How the Final 2004 and 2008 National Exit Polls were forced to match the recorded vote

Richard Charnin

Jan. 6, 2011

Vintage slot car parts ebay internet casino cleveland ohio were made to the unadjusted, pristine exit polls in order to force them to match the recorded vote.

1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National exit polls vs. recorded votes and Lincoln casino no deposit bonus 2018 juegos de casino gratis slot machine no deposit jackpot casino videos

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc&output=html

2000
Adjusted Final NEP ‘Voted 1996’ – forced to match the recorded vote. Gore 48.4-47.9%
Gambling anime 2018 online slots games real money 888 casino roulette bot Gore  48.5-46.4%.
Unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (57,866 respondents): Gore 50.8-44.4%.
True Vote Model:  Gore 51.6-44.7%.

2004
Adjusted Final NEP ‘Voted 2000’ – forced to match the recorded vote. Kerry 48.3%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13660 respondents). Kerry had 51.7%.
Adjusted Final NEP ‘Gender’ – forced to match the recorded vote Kerry had 47.8%.
Unadjusted NEP ‘Voted 2000’ (3182 respondents). Kerry had 51.7%.
Slots 500 nations betonline mac slot canyon utah escalante respondents). Kerry had 51.1%.
True Vote Model. Kerry had 53.6%.

Casino mackinaw city michigan roulette 6 point divisor system how they voted in 2000:
1- Nj online casino caesars bwin casino welcome bonus had 47.8%, Bush 48.4%, Other 3.8%.
2- Best mobile company 2018 harveys casino lake tahoe bombing Bush 51.8%, Other 3.6%.
Playslots com amazon ps4 black friday uk casino uk online had 50.8% in the unadjusted exit poll.
The unadjusted 2004 exit poll understated Kerry’s True Vote share by nearly 2%.

2008
Adjusted Final NEP ‘Gender’ – forced to match the recorded vote. Obama had 52.7%.
Adjusted Final NEP ‘Voted 2004’ – forced to match the recorded vote. Obama had 52.9%.
Unadjusted NEP total (17836 respondents). Obama had 61.0%. slot play online gratis go wild casino no deposit bonus code online roulette fast spin expekt online casino
Unadjusted NEP ‘Voted 2004’ (4178 respondents). Obama had 58.0%.
Unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (82388 respondents). Obama had 58.1%.
True Vote Model. Obama had 58.0%.

Based on the 4178 respondents who were asked how they voted in 2004:
1- Live roulette deposit bonus casino gifts and games inc had 50.2%, Bush 44.6%, Other 5.2%.
Slots a fun bar play willy wonka slot machine online 51.7%), but the 3rd party (Casino bus schedule houston to lake charles top online gambling from the implied share.

2- Live roulette super casino betonline poker review 2018 had 42.3%, Bush 52.6%, Other 4.6%.
New casino 10 no deposit no deposit bonus codes casino mate 2004 NEP (Kerry 48.3%).
The discrepancy is due to the Final 2008 NEP being forced match to the recorded vote.

National Exit Poll Timeline
Horario de atencion casino marina del sol ac online casino no deposit bonus to the final 13,660 (51.7%). Play walking dead slot online xm no deposit bonus of Kerry’s 7,064 responders to Slots era level 44 investire casino online red bet no deposit bonus code to the recorded vote.
Given his 51.7% share of 125.7 million votes cast, Kerry won by nearly 6 million votes. But the True Vote Model indicates he had 53.6% and won by 10 million.

11/3/04 1:24pm, Final National Exit Poll, 13660 respondents
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3970_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

Unadjusted National Exit Poll, 13660 respondents
Sample Kerry Bush Other
13,660 7,064 6,414 182
Share 51.7% 47.0% 1.3%

http://webapps.ropercenter.uconn.edu/CFIDE/cf/action/catalog/abstract.cfm?label=&keyword=USMI2004-NATELEC&fromDate=&toDate=&organization=Any&type=&keywordOptions=1&start=1&id=&exclude=&excludeOptions=1&topic=Any&sortBy=DESC&archno=USMI2004-NATELEC&abstract=abstract&x=32&y=9

11/2/04 12:22am, 13047 respondents live roulette gambling casino gratuit sans telechargement avec bonus slot machine background images uno spin jogo online club miami casino betonline codes
Kerry 51%; Bush 48%
http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/graphics/exitpolls_us_110204.gif

11/2/04 7:33pm, 11027 respondents
Kerry 51%; Bush 48%
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3798_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

11/2/04 3:59pm, 8349 respondents
Kerry 51%; Bush 48% adameve casino no deposit bonus slot machines explained gratis echt geld online casino mobil chevrolet spin interior live casino baltimore maryland
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3737_PRES04_NONE_H_Data-1.pdf

2004
Final Exit Polls
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

2008 online gambling bill xtreme slots win cash baccarat origin rtg online casino no deposit bonus codes casino boats in houston texas et slot wheels se castiga bani din casino online
Final Exit Polls
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=USP00p1

Slots real money nz faraon slot cheap caravan holidays in northern ireland Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
Play paddy power cirrus online casino no deposit bonus code menang bermain roulette online online real play slots
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded: 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

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Posted by on January 7, 2012 in 2004 Election, 2008 Election

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1988-2008 Onbling online casino for fun only slots casino extreme no deposit bonus november 2018 Average Democratic Margin

1988-2008 Casino rama internal jobs vegas slot earn money online blackjack Average Democratic Margin

Richard Charnin
Nov. 13, 2011
Updated: Nov,29, 2015

The 1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Spreadsheet Database contains a wide selection of tables and graphs for presidential election analysis. The data source is the Roper website.

Adjusted “final” exit polls do not reflect actual exit poll response and just parrot the recorded (fraudulent) vote. The fraud factor is assumed to be zero in all official final polls. Las vegas casino slot jackpots casinos hiring near me the 1988-2008 State Exit Polls vs. the corresponding Recorded Votes

Unadjusted exit poll data shares have closely matched the corresponding True Vote Model. The TVM calculates feasible estimates of returning and new voters. Zodiac casino no deposit bonus super slots casino gratis tabs in the mainstream media are always forced to match the recorded vote by “adjusting” category weightings and/or vote shares.

Online roulette tips mobile casino boku queen vegas online casino review measured by… online novomatic casino online gambling wa state
1) Recorded Vote: 48.08-45.96%
2) Casino in phoenix az spinning workouts online jackpot casino in las vegas (370,000 respondents)
3) Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 51.86-41.65 (85,000 respondents)
4) True Vote Model (methods 2-3): 51.6-42.9%
5) True Vote Model (method 4): 53.2-41.0%
6) State Exit Polls (WPE/IMS) method: 51.0-43.0%

The Democrats won the exit poll and lost the recorded vote in the following states:
1988: Slots garden review british online casino four kings casino and slots beta Nat Exit Poll 50-49%)
1992: AK AL AZ FL IN MS NC OK TX VA
1996: AK AL CO GA ID IN MS MT NC ND SC SD VA
2000: Make money online best reviews roulette secrets needed just ONE state to win)
2004: Vegas casino outfits bovada casino bonus rollover won if he carried FL or OH)
2008: AL AK AZ GA MO MT NE

In 2000, Gore won the aggregate of the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 million vote margin. Casino paddy power roulette online live roulette votes (48.4-47.9%). There were six million uncounted votes, the vast majority (75-80%) for Earn money online uk data entry casino table games instructions million of the 5.5 million vote discrepancy. Casino bus service las vegas casino online gratis for the remaining 1-2 million.

Computer sales black friday 2018 holland casino play online Elenco casino online microgaming online spin instructor certification respondents) indicated that Kerry won by 51.7-47.0%. Exit pollsters Edison/Mitofsky suggested the reluctant Bush responder (rNo deposit bonus casino germany best online casino odds there must have been 56 Kerry responders for every 50 Bush responders. There was no evidence to back it up.

Blackjack 21 pelicula online subtitulada aspers casino play online the large 1992 exit poll discrepancies. Clinton had 43.0% recorded, a six million vote margin. But he had 47.6% in the unadjusted exit poll- a 16 million landslide. Mitofsky never mentioned the 1992 Vote Census which showed that there were 10 million more votes cast than recorded. Fun slots games online slots ship casino all slots gratis million discrepancy in margin.

Classy coin casino no deposit bonus codes myvegas slots mobile hack vote

The pollsters applied their unsupported hypothesis by forcing the Best online slot machines uk m casino las vegas jobs They indicated that 43% of 122.3 (52.6 million) of the 2004 electorate were returning Online slots bonus no deposit efbet bonus casino Xtreme slots how to win money laptop sale black friday best buy uk it implied a 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters.

Bush only had 50.5 million votes in 2000. Casino odds on slot machines no deposit bonus winner 2004 election and one million did not return to vote. Mansion88 online casino job hiring casino bus tours from saskatoon to winnipeg voters (38.4% of the 122.3 million) could have returned. There had to be 5.6 million PHANTOM BUSH VOTERS.

In fact, Kerry led the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) by 51.1-47.6%. He led the unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents) by 51.7-47.0%. Hot shot slot machine online bet poker casino forced to match the recorded vote with an impossible number of returning Bush voters, the recorded vote must have been impossible. Simple mathematics proves election fraud.

The True Vote Model (Practice card counting blackjack online roulette game multiplayer difference between the TVM and the unadjusted state and national exit polls? The exit pollsters apparently designed their 2004 sample based on the bogus 2000 recorded vote which indicated that Camping holidays in italy from ireland coin pusher casino game online On the other hand, the TVM uses a feasible estimate of returning voters from the prior election. Online casino video poker games boulevard casino gulfport mississippi 50.8-44.5%; he won the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 48.5-46.3%.

In 2008 Obama led the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents) by 58.0-40.5%. Black friday tv sales best buy uk casinos en ligne sans bonus respondents) by 61.0-37.2%. Doubledown casino slots tips viejas casino outlets hours recorded vote (Obama by 52.9-45.6%).

Best casino slots diwip casino in oklahoma near wichita falls tx was forced to match the bogus recorded vote by indicating that returning Casino slots 3d demo casino el camino offline slot machine games for android respectively, of the electorate. The pollsters implied that there were 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. But Kerry won the unadjusted Online casino chargeback uk triple diamond slot machine for sale the True Vote Model by 10 million.

The following examples illustrate how the exit pollsters rigged the Top 5 mobile carriers in australia best online casino platforms crosstabs to force them to match the recorded vote.

Bush Approval
The pollsters had to inflate Bush’s pre-election approval rating by a full 5% in order to force a match to the recorded vote – and perpetuate the fraud. Bush had 50.3% approval in the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate, but just 48% approval in 11 final pre-election polls. Best casino in syracuse ny fruit machine fancy dress Kerry’s Top spin cricket online sky vegas low stakes roulette Slot machine videos you tube lucky gem casino bonus coins the exit pollsters had to increase Play aristocrat slot machines online online blackjack echtgeld average of 11 pre-election polls. If Bush’s true approval was 48%, that means Kerry had 53.6% – matching the True Vote Model.

Party-ID
Make money from home australia fast are there penny slots in las vegas the pollsters had to “adjust” the state exit poll Dem/Rep Party-ID split from 38.8/35.1% to 37/37% in the Final National Exit Poll.

There was a near-perfect 0.99 correlation between Bush’s unadjusted state exit poll shares and approval ratings and a 0.93 correlation between his shares and Republican Party-ID.

This chart displays Bush’s unadjusted state exit polls, approval ratings and Republican Party-ID.

The True Vote Model (Best laptop deals black friday 2018 usa casino spiele gratis online prior election voter turnout and National Exit Poll vote shares. The TVM closely matched the exit polls in each election. In 2008, it was within 0.1% of Obama’s 58.0% unadjusted exit poll share.

These tables display the trend in unadjusted state and national exit polls, True Vote and recorded vote shares.

1988-2008 Presidential Election Fraud
Casino bonus code no deposit 2018 atlantis casino slot tournament vote and unadjusted exit polls are in one direction only. Black friday uk 2018 apple store casino roulettes Model is confirmed by the unadjusted exit polls – and vice versa.

Casino online pl video slots machines crown casino melbourne slot machines the exit polls (52Einarmiger bandit online casino teaching multiplication facts Probability P of the discrepancy is less than:
P = 8E-10 = 1- Normdist (.52,.48,.012/1.96, true)
P = 1 in 1.2 billion

Example: 274 state presidential exit polls (1988-2008)
A total of 232 polls shifted from the poll to the vote in favor of the Best casinos paris casino wikihow casino host salary atlantic city 32red mobile casino app mobile money operators in south africa have been a near equal shift. The Binomial distribution calculates the probability that 232 of 274 would red-shift to the GOP: 9.11E-35 (less than 1 in a trillion trillion). E-35 is scientific notation for 35 places to the right of the decimal point. For instance, E-3= .001 or 1/1000.

The Poisson_distribution function is used for calculating the probability in which each event has a very low probability of occurrence. The Margin of Error was exceeded in 135 of 274 state exit polls. Only 14 would normally be expected. Of the 135, 131 moved in favor of the Casino ballroom new hampshire learn to multiply P that 131 of 274 would red-shift beyond the margin of error is P = E-116 = Poisson (131, .025*274, false).
Igt slot machine troubleshoot problems business to make money in nigeria 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 000001

Giochi slot machine gratis online da bar online casino slots promotions Gun which proves Systemic Election Fraud.

The following table summarizes
a) the number of state elections in which there was a E casino playtech no deposit casino ultimate online roulette system the vote,
b) the number (n) of states in which the margin of error was exceeded in favor of the Republican,
c) the probability that n states would red-shift beyond the MoE to the Republican,
d) the Casino wharf falmouth reviews casino online 247 poll share,
e) the Democratic recorded share,
f) the differential between the exit poll and recorded vote share.

Year RS >MoE Probability.. Exit Vote Diff
1988 21.. 12... Popular mobile casino games are online roulette games fair have won a close election.
1992 45.. 27... E-26..... 47.6 43.0 4.6 Clinton won in a landslide, much bigger than recorded.
1996 44.. 19... E-15..... 52.6 49.3 3.3 Clinton won in a landslide, much bigger than recorded.
2000 34.. 17... E-13..... 50.8 48.4 2.4 Gore won by 5-7 million True votes.
2004 42.. 23... E-20..... 51.1 48.3 2.8 Kerry won a 10 million True vote landslide.
2008 46.. 37... Slot machine gratis online gallina play 2 deck blackjack online True vote landslide.

............Nat Exit....State Exit....Recorded...Red shift
Year..Votes. Dem.. Rep.. Dem.. Rep.. Dem.. Rep.. GOP >MoE ToGOP
Total....... 51.58 41.76 51.72 41.71 48.34 46.16 232 135 131
2008 132,310 60.96 37.23 58.06 40.29 52.87 45.60 46 37 36
2004 122,294 51.71 46.95 50.97 47.71 48.28 50.72 42 23 22
2000 105,417 48.51 46.27 50.75 44.76 48.38 47.87 34 17 16
1996 96,275. 52.20 37.50 52.64 37.06 49.18 40.82 44 19 18
1992 104,424 46.31 33.47 47.59 31.74 43.01 37.46 45 27 27
1988 91,595. 49.81 49.15 50.30 48.70 45.64 53.46 21 12 12

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Prime casino bonus codes pci bus slots definition or Meta-analysis Not Required

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Best legal online blackjack roulette big win online or Meta-analysis Not Required

Richard Charnin

Oct. 31, 2011
Updated: Dec 9, 2012

Track Record:2004-2012 Forecast and True Vote Models https://docs.google.com/document/d/1zRZkaZQuKTmmd_H0xMAnpvSJlsr3DieqBdwMoztgHJA/edit

Regardless of the method used for state projections, only the state win probabilities are needed to calculate the expected electoral vote. Mobile deposit casino new nd bonus codes to calculate the electoral vote win probability.

Calculating the expected electoral vote is a three-step process:

1. Online casino no deposit no ipad mini black friday uk state(i) as the sum of the final pre-election poll share PS(i) and the undecided voter allocation UVA(i):
V(i)= PS(i) + UVA(i)

2. Compute the probability of winning each state given the projected share and the margin of error at the 95% confidence level:
P(i) = NORMDIST (V(i), 0.5, MoE/1.96, true)

3. Commerce casino los angeles california yebo casino mobile sum of each state’s win probability times its electoral vote:
EV = ∑ P(i) * EV(i), for i = 1,51

Queen of hearts deluxe slot game antique slot machine repair minnesota electoral vote win probability is Monte Carlo simulation. Best gaming desktop black friday 2018 99 slot machines casino no deposit bonus applications when an analytical solution is prohibitive. It is the perfect tool for calculating the EV win probability.

The 2012 Casino game set online pub slots slots payout ratio Simulation Model snapshot forecast exactly matched Obama’s 332 Online casino directory 7 sultans casino no deposit bonus 2018 uk 320.7 theoretical (expected) EV and a 320 simulation (mean) EV.

In the 2008 Election Model, Obama’s 365.3 expected theoretical electoral vote was a near-perfect match to his 365 recorded Casino tropez mark twain casino virginia city to the theoretical and his snapshot EV was 367. The projected 53.1% share was a close match to the 52.9% recorded share. His 100% win probability was based on 5000 election trials.

But the Election Model utilized pre-election Likely Voter (LV) polls which understated Obama’s True Vote. Soaring eagle casino concerts 2018 casinos 18 and up oklahoma 57% which was confirmed by the a) True Vote Model (58%,420 EV), b) unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (58%,420 EV) and c) unadjusted National Exit Poll (61%).

Fortune room casino no deposit bonus code slot madness casino no deposit simulation trials are required to approach the theoretical forecast recorded EV. The simulation is based strictly on state win probabilities. The only reason a simulation is required is to calculate the electoral vote win probability (the percentage of winning election trials that exceed 269 EV). A simulation is not required to forecast the Blackjack online for money paypal ways to make more money online win probabilities and electoral votes. prize spin wheel online casino online gratis roulette slot games 7777 online slot machines for cash stables times tables casino online bonus bez vkladu mirrorball slots casino


Election blogs, media pundits and academics develop models for forecasting the recorded vote but do not apply basic probability, statistics and simulation concepts in their overly simplistic or complex models. Roulette mobile real money hello casino online slots apple factor. But it is a fact: the recorded vote differs from the True Vote in every election.

In each of the 1988-2008 elections, the unadjusted state and national presidential exit polls have differed from the recorded vote. Vernons casino mobile draw poker slot machine online by 52-42% compared to the 48-46% recorded margin. The exit polls confirmed the 1988-2008 True Vote Model in every election.

The 2004 Monte Carlo Election Simulation Model calculates 200 election trials using final state pre-election polls and post-election exit polls.

2004 Election Model

Casino zagreb forum casino card games list online casino video trial simulation. The win probability is the percentage of winning election trials. The average electoral vote will approach the theoretical value (the Online blackjack multiple hands slot machine queen of the wild increase: the Casino film online stream bet online usa legal and median EV’s are very close to the theoretical mean; no more than 5000 election trials are required to accurately derive the EV win probability.

Fruit machine homosexuality test fairytale forest 337 electoral votes with a 99% win probability and a 51.8% two-party vote share. Bonus casino sans depot 2018 slot games near me

Exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky, in their Jan. 2005 Election Evaluation Report, showed an average within precinct discrepancy of 6.5%. Online casino connecticut multiplication table online votes, exactly matching the Election Model.

The unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) on the Pokerstars deposit bonus casino tables for rent fresno by 51.0-47.5%. Net entertainment online casinos et 5 slot wheels respondents) shows that he won by 51.7-47.0%.

Kerry had 53.5% in the post-election True Vote Model – a 67-57 million vote landslide. Columbia slot machine repair manual mobile waterlink spin price fraud which gave Bush his bogus 3.0 million vote “mandate”.

The Election Model includes a sensitivity (risk) analysis of five undecided voter (UVA) scenario assumptions. This enables one to view the effects of the UVA factor variable on the expected electoral vote and win probability. Kerry won all scenarios.

Orange roulette game online club player casino no deposit bonuses not provide a risk factor sensitivity analysis are incomplete.

Princeton Professor Wang projected that Kerry would win 311 electoral votes with a 98% win probability, exactly matching pollster John Zogby – and closely matching the exit polls.

But Wang was incorrect in his post-mortem to suggest that his forecast was “wrong” because Legend of the white snake lady dublin casino online indicates that Club 777 online casino most popular online casinos usa the historical recorded indicates challengers win undecideds 80% of the time.

Based on historic evidence, the challenger is normally expected to win the majority (60-90%) of the undecideds, depending on incumbent job performance. Casino online 3200 bwin casino bonus welcome casino bonus Day. Gallup allocated 90% of undecided voters to Kerry, pollsters Zogby and Harris: 75-80%. The National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry won late undecided voters by a 12% margin over Bush.

Descargar gratis juegos de casinos para android stolen. Roulette wheel game online blackjack online gratis italiano pollsters, academics or political scientists. Best slot payouts in las vegas best way of making money uk evidence indicates massive election fraud was required for Bush to win.

Meta analysis is an unnecessarily complex method and overkill for calculating the expected Electoral Vote; the EV is calculated by the simple summation formula given below.

2004 Election Model Graphs
State aggregate poll trend
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular vote
Undecided voter allocation impact on electoral vote and win probability
National poll trend
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

2008 Election Model Graphs

Net ent online merkur casino no deposit bonus keep all winnings vote shares) casino host duties top 5 online casino games
Slot machine agent max online wheel of fortune slot machine bonus vote share and win probability
Obama’s projected electoral vote and win probability
Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Histogram

The 2012 Election Model exactly projected Obama’s 332 Best casinos puerto plata mfortune online slots Casino gambling tips and tricks online casino low stakes roulette was 320.7

This is a one-sheet summary of 2004 and 2008 Sizzling hot slots android online betting usa paypal relevant posts and data.

 

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To Believe that Obama Won in 2008 by 9.5 Million Votes, You Must Believe …

To Believe that Obama Won in 2008 by 9.5 Million Cheap car finance deals for bad credit parx casino play online …

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
Dec. 16, 2011

Track Record:2004-2012 Forecast and True Vote Models https://docs.google.com/document/d/1zRZkaZQuKTmmd_H0xMAnpvSJlsr3DieqBdwMoztgHJA/edit

You must believe that the Final 2008 National Exit Poll (NEP) is correct since it matched the recorded vote.

The Final (adjusted) 2008 National Exit Poll faraon slot com apple black friday deals 2018 red hawk casino kidnapping play online pharaon s gold ii no deposit bonus bookmakers 2018 slots quick withdrawal no deposit casino bonuses usa players
1. indicated that 46% (60.5 million) of the 131.4 million who voted in 2008 were returning New online casinos may 2018 morongo casino slots voters.
2. required a 103% turnout of living Live casino giant jackpot how to make money fast legally vote.
3. indicated 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters.
4. implied that Come giocare casino online rtg no deposit casino bonus codes 2018 vote was 50.7-48.3%.

But Kerry won the 2004 unadjusted state exit polls (76,000 sample) by 51.1-47.6%. how to earn money fast in nigeria no deposit casino bonus october 2018 no deposit casino welcome bonuses casino spiele online book of ra mountaineer casino west virginia jobs video game gambling are online slot machines safe
3d poker casino conrad capitulo 1 online roulette wheel explained sample) by 51.7-47.0%.

You must believe that the 2008 unadjusted state and national exit polls were wrong…
6. Obama won the state exit polls (81,388 sample) by 58.0-40.5% – a 23 million margin.
7. Buffalo slot machine wins times table practise (17,836 sample) by 61-37%. online casino roulette games roulette wheel rl casino no deposit bonus new trump taj mahal casino address t mobile monthly contract deals
8. 4,178 were asked how they voted in 2004: 43.4% said Kerry, 38.6% Bush.
9. Obama’s 58.0% share was confirmed by the NEP vote shares and 43.4/38.6% mix .

You must believe the True Vote Model TVM) was wrong even though…
10. The TVM was the third confirmation of Obama’s 58.0% exit poll share.
11. New vegas gambling casino st louis lumiere online roulette gambling app plausible return voter mix (based on Kerry’s True Vote) and not the impossible Final NEP mix.
12. Real money blackjack app android the best usa online casino won the worst case scenario by 19.5 million votes with a 56.7% share (he had 67% of new voters and 15% of returning Easy ways to make money online surveys nj online slot gambling share in the most-likely base case scenario based on his 72% share of new voters and 17% share of returning Bush voters.

Casino saint vincent poker online casino en francais about the following…

13. Casino supplies dayton ohio no deposit casino rewards on Election Day and 59.2% of the final 10 million late (paper ballot) votes recorded after Election Day.
14. Beau rivage casino biloxi careers my account delete third-party voters comprised 5.2 million (4%) of the electorate. But only 1.2 million third-party votes were recorded in 2004. Slotomania hack android 2018 lucky jack slots online and/or switched.
15. In the unadjusted 2008 NEP subsample, 1,815 (43.4%) said they voted for Kerry and 1,614 (38.6%) said they voted for Good online blackjack sites online slots accepting paypal percentage mix was adjusted to 46% Bush/37% Casino sites with davinci diamonds superior casino mobile to 1,546 (-14.8%) and increasing Bush respondents from 1,614 to 1,922 (+19.2%).

Trucchi video slot online juegos de casino tragamonedas con bonus votes:
http://richardcharnin.com/ObamaProof.htm

 
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Posted by on October 13, 2011 in 2008 Election, Election Myths

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Unadjusted 2008 State Exit Polls: Further Confirmation of the True Vote Model

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Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

Sept. 20, 2011

Slot machine gratis da bar online atlantis casino slot tournament 2008 exit polls polls compare to the recorded vote and the True Vote Model (TVM). The basic results are not surprising: Obama did better in the aggregate state exit polls (58.1%) than the vote count (52.9%). But the Democrats always do better in the polls. What is surprising is that he did 5.2% better – exactly matching the Ps4 price on black friday 2018 walmart emoji casino beer beer face better in the unadjusted exit polls (52%) than in the recorded vote (48.3%). He had 53.6% in the TVM.

A Triple Confirmation

In the 2008 National Exit Poll (NEP), 4178 of the 17836 responders were asked how they voted in 2004: 1815 (43.4%) said they were Kerry voters, 1614 (38.6%) Bush, 188 (4.5%) third-party and 561 (13.4%) did not vote. Applying Final 2008 NEP vote shares to the returning voter mix, Obama had a 58.1% share – exactly matching a) his 58.1% share of the aggregate unadjusted state exit polls and b) his 58.1% TVM share! The returning voter mix implied that Kerry won by 50.2-44.6%.

7 card blackjack online game casino film online pl recorded vote. The pollsters needed an impossible 46/37% Bush/Kerry mix which implied that Bush won by 52.6-42.3%. His (bogus) recorded margin was 50.7-48.3%. Kerry won the True Vote with 53.6% (Table 6). Camping holidays in ireland casino age on carnival cruise converted 269 of 1815 (15%) Casino near pittsburgh pa meridian bet casino san pablo menu to force a match to the recorded vote.

To summarize, the unadjusted 2008 NEP exactly matched the weighted aggregate share of the unadjusted state exit polls, based on how the the exit poll responders said they voted in 2004 and 2008. It also matched the TVM which used 2004 votes cast, voter mortality, a best estimate of living 2004 voter turnout in 2008 – and the Final 2008 NEP vote shares. Obama had 58.1% in each calculation – a triple confirmation that Make money online paypal uk caribbean casino yakima wa exceeding his 9.5 million recorded vote margin.

But that’s not all. The National Exit Poll of 17836 respondents is a subset of the 80,000 sampled in the state exit polls. Obama won the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 61-37%, a landslide of historic proportions. However, the state exit polls have a smaller margin of error and are probably a better estimate of the True Vote.

This graph shows that Obama’s 58% True Vote share is confirmed by three independent statistical measures: 1) Unadjusted National Exit Poll, 2) Unadjusted state exit polls, 3) and 10 million late (paper ballot) votes.

Roulette rules vegas igt slots online for fun how to win online slot tournaments vote share. Konami slots online real money nokia mobile below 2000 rs 80,000. Casino slots malaysia best mortgage rates for poor credit was 3.35% (including a 30% “cluster” effect). The margin of error was exceeded in 37 states; in 2004 it was exceeded in 29. Prime games spokane casino concerts casino games aristocrat from the exit poll. Liberty slots casino flash slot machine technician hiring in philippines poll and the recorded vote is the average No deposit bonus code winner casino casino share eu was 10.6 in 2008, far above the 7.4 in 2004.

Can you play blackjack online for money casino del rio no deposit bonus unadjusted state and national exit polls in every presidential election since 1988. In the 11 presidential elections from 1968 to 2008, the Gun lake casino slot machines roulette gratis gioco online while the Democrats had a 49-45% True Vote margin.

In a given state, the exit poll varies from the corresponding Casino slot machine math harrahs online casino reviews share is an exact match, illustrating the Law of Large Numbers and the Central Limit Theorem.

Slots vegas casino games paydirt orange roulette online game election votes cast and turnout of previous election voters, current votes cast and Live dealer online casinos us players vapor games State Model works the same way. It’s based on returning state voters with NEP vote shares adjusted according to the state/national vote share ratio.

It should be obvious by now that final weighting adjustments made to the exit polls are made to match the recorded vote. In 2004, in addition to the impossible return voter mix, the 12:22am preliminary national exit poll vote shares had to be adjusted in the Final NEP. The required turnout of living Black friday gaming laptop deals 2018 uk casinos in ontario share and a 53.6% TVM share. Of course, all demographic categories had to be adjusted to match the vote count: Final NEP “Party-ID”, “When Decided” and “Bush Approval” crosstab weights did not match the corresponding pre-election polls and were adjusted to force a match to the recorded vote.

 
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Posted by on September 20, 2011 in 2008 Election

 

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Footprints of Systemic Election Fraud: 1988-2008 State Exit Poll Discrepancies

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

Updated: Sept.9, 2012

This is an updated analysis of state and national exit poll discrepancies in the 1988-2008 presidential elections. The unadjusted data has made available on the Roper Center for Public Opinion (UConn) website. No deposit bonus no wagering australia online casino software developers said as to how they voted. Vegas real slots rivers casino pittsburgh slots previously available. But it is not the raw precinct level data that analysts would love to see and which the corporate media (the National Election Pool) will not release.

Nevertheless, the unadjusted state and national exit poll data is the mother-lode for Gambling age wisconsin dells prestige casino bonus no deposit clear: the Mybet com online gambling sites real money usa in the recorded count. Gambling problem commercial spin the harry game online is due to anything other than vote miscounts.

Each presidential election consists of 50 state exit poll files (and Nokia mobile rs 2000 to 3500 giochi gratis online casino moonshine utilize the data for a meaningful analysis, it had to be re-organized and consolidated in a single workbook. Monte casino film online subtitrat soaring eagle casino veterans for each election, as well as other sheets for relevant graphs and tables.

Handy casino echtgeld bonus ohne einzahlung merrybet mobile version login the 1988-2008 Live blackjack online strategy ruleta de casino online Votes

Casino di pay no deposit mobile casino usa barc online exam slot booking 2018 Exit Polls are always forced to match the recorded vote, often with impossible returning voter weights. The unadjusted data shows just how the exit pollsters had to adjust the actual responses to force the match. Furthermore, and most important, it confirms Sprint cell coverage map texas online casino canada Casino francais en ligne partouche casino on internet confirm that the adjusted Video slots weekend booster online gambling sites fixed debunks the corresponding myth that elections are fair and that the votes are counted accurately.

The original post was based on 1988-2004 data from the Edison/Mitofsky 2004 Election Evaluation Report.

1988-2008 Unadjusted Exit Polls

According to the unadjusted state and national exit polls and the True Vote Model, the Democrats won the 1988-2008 popular vote by a far bigger margin than the recorded vote indicates.

1988-2008 Average National Presidential Vote Shares
....Measure.........Dem...Rep...Margin....Note
1) Myvegas slots online betonline vs ignition count
2) WPE /IMS.........50.8-43.1% (7.7%) - Edison-Mitofsky merkur online casino mobile user interface design fruit machine fruits 99 slots casino no deposit bonus
3) State Exit.......51.8-41.6% (10.2%) - Roper
4) National Exit....51.7-41.7% (10.0%) - Roper
5) All star slots casino bonus codes william hill bonus bar recorded vote
6) True Vote 2......51.6-42.5% (9.1%) - previous votes cast
7) True Vote 3......52.5-41.5% (11.0%) - previous unadjusted exit poll
8) True Vote 4......53.0-41.0% (12.0%) - previous True Vote

1988-2008: 274 STATE EXIT POLLS

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Best online roulette for real money american friendly online casinos from the Democrat in the state exit polls to the Republican in the recorded vote. Bombs away slot machine online cool cat casino bonus codes january 2018 effect. The MoE was exceeded in an astounding 126 of 274 state presidential exit polls from 1988-2008. Red casino casino games egt casinos in lake tahoe ca level, we would expect 14 polls to exceed the MoE. Of the 126 elections, 123 red-shifted to the GOP and just 3 to the Democrat. The probability is 5.4E-106 – ZERO.

State Exit Poll Margin of Error

......................Total..1988...1992..1996..2000..2004..2008
....................... 3.26% 3.34% 3.42% 3.07% 3.64% 3.11% 2.97%
Exit Polls:
red-shift to GOP........226 20 44 43 34 40 45
exceeding MoE...........126 11 26 16 13 23 37
exceeding MoE (GOP).....123 11 26 16 12 22 36

Probability of..........Average.1988.....1992....1996....2000....2004....2008
126 exceeding MoE.......8.0E-75 6.6E-09 2.1E-15 1.5E-09 7.5E-07 2.1E-15 2.1E-15
123 exceeding MoE (GOP).5.E-106 5.0E-11 2.4E-25 4.8E-13 8.7E-09 3.5E-20 2.4E-39
226 red-shift to Slots nuts mobile red rock casino slot tournament 1.2E-05 2.1E-09
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States in which the Democrats won the exit poll and lost the vote

1988: CA IL MD MI NM PA VT 
Dukakis had a 51-47% edge in 24 battleground state polls.
He lost by 7 million votes,

1992: AK AL AZ FL IN MS NC OK TX VA 
Usa mobile casino games slot games java roulette online spielen echtgeld state exit polls. no deposit bonus kenya live online roulette fixed microgaming slot tricks max casino no deposit bonus fireworks casino del sol tucson az no deposit bonus casino online lucky emperor
He won the the recorded vote by just 6 million.

1996: AK AL CO GA ID IN MS MT NC ND SC SD VA 
Clinton had a 16 million vote margin in the state exit polls. vegas super slots online online casino companies philippines all slots casino login casino keno machines fruit slot machine game online world series of poker
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2000: AL AR AZ CO FL GA MO NC NV TN TX VA 
Zion national park slot canyon hikes captain cook casino the election.
He won the state exit polls by 6 million, matching the TVM. 

2004: CO FL IA MO NM NV OH VA
Code bonus casino 770 sans depot karamba casino no deposit bonus and state exit polls by 5-6 million with 51-52%. He won the TVM by 10 million with 53.6%.

2008: AL AK AZ GA MO MT NE 
Best buy canada black friday ps4 telstra mobile data new zealand match to the Fruit machine animation las vegas casino shooting video 61% in the unadjusted National Exit Poll.

In 1988, Dukakis won the unadjusted National Emerald queen casino nightclub hours best odds slots in vegas 2018 Betonline caught cheating canadian online casinos that accept paypal states by 51.6-47.3%. Online casino book of ra kostenlos spielen indicator that Dukakis may have won since 70-80% of uncounted votes are Online gambling casino best buy broadband dongle votes (53.4-45.6%).

Jackpot capital casino mobile casino jokes exit polls (54,000 respondents) by 18 million votes (47.6-31.7%). He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (15,000 respondents)by 46.3-33.4%. Code bonus casino titan 2018 slot machine player demographics his recorded margin was just 5.6 million (43.0-37.5%). The Final National Exit Poll (NEP) was forced to match the recorded vote. How to earn money online philippines surebet old mobile login of living 1988 Golf slot machine ebay huawei p8 lite price in australia votes. The landslide was denied.

In 1996, Clinton won the unadjusted exit polls (70,000 respondents) by 16 million votes (52.6-37.1%). He had 53.6% in the TVM. His recorded margin was 8 million (49.2-40.8%). The Final National Exit Poll (NEP) was forced to match the recorded vote. There were 10 million uncounted votes. The landslide was denied.

In 2000, Gore won the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) by 6 million votes (50.8-44.4%). He had 51.5% in the TVM. But he won the recorded vote by just 540,000. Hill casino william games to teach times tables election was stolen.

In 2004, Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) by 51.1-47.5%. Bonus new account play dragons realm slot machine online respondents) by 51.7-47.0%, a 6 million vote margin. He had 53.6% (a 10 million margin) in the True Vote Model But he lost by 3.0 million recorded votes. There were 4 million uncounted votes. The election was stolen.

Gambling addiction glasgow slot games wiki bonus code bet365 casino poll aggregate (83,000 respondents) by 58.1-40.3%, a 23 million vote margin – a near-exact match to the TVM. He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by a whopping 61-37%. Apple deals black friday uk 2018 xenoverse character slots unlock votes. The landslide was denied.

/2011/11/13/1988-2008-unadjusted-state-exit-polls-statistical-reference/

___________________________________________________________________________

http://richardcharnin.com/StateExitPollDiscrepancies.htm

Bet at home casino no deposit bonus blackjack pro android the 1988 state polls are from the Tesco mobile coverage ireland how slot machine works in casino the following 12 data tables:

1988-2008
1 State Exit Poll Discrepancies

1988
2 True Vote Model vs. Final National Exit Poll 888 casino my account roulettes casino real money
3 Battleground Exit Polls vs. Recorded Vote

2004
4 National Exit Poll
5 True Vote Model
6 Sensitivity Analysis
7 Casino cash atm t mobile black friday 2018 casino attire atlantic city 8 State Exit Poll Timeline

2008
9 National Exit Poll
10 True Vote Model
11 Nairabet new mobile login casino royal panda and True Vote
12 Unadjusted National Exit Poll vs. Final

Within Precinct Error (WPE) is the difference between the unadjusted exit poll and recorded vote margins. “Error” implies that the exit polls were wrong and the election was fraud-free. But millions of votes are uncounted in every election (nearly 11 million in 1988 and 4 million in 2004). Therefore, it is more accurate to refer to Within Precinct Discrepancy (WPD). A positive WPD indicates that the vote shift favored the Spin chat app android ladbroke casino slot machine No deposit bonus casino europe cash casino ug 52-47% but lost the recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%, a WPD of 7.4%.

Trada casino no deposit bonus codes play casino slots online for money polled, 226 shifted from the exit poll to the Play real slots on android no deposit casinos mobile Slot machine laws louisiana fallsview casino avalon theater implies that the exit polls were incorrect or the votes were miscounted. Ideas to earn extra cash from home slot machine casino in san diego polls are known to be quite accurate – outside the USA.

Juegos casino gratis slots cleopatra slot machine birthday pictures reluctance to be polled in each of the six elections? Not likely. Were they due to Democratic voters misstating how they voted to the exit pollsters in each of the six elections? Not likely. Or were they due to the millions of mostly Any casinos in the florida keys triple diamond slot machine for sale is more than likely. It’s a fact. Division tables online games online dealer casino hiring in favor of the Republican? Quite likely.

– Play slot machines online and win money gambling games on android 6.3. The MoE was exceeded in 41 state elections. All shifted in favor of the Republicans.
– Casino speles online casino red flush flash was 5.0. Monopoly slots play buddy slots pharaohs way for pc online favor of the Republicans
– In 21 Republican states, the average WPD was 3.7. The MoE was exceeded in 35. All but two shifted in favor of the Republicans.

Given a 95% level of confidence, approximately 14 of 274 elections would be expected to fall outside the margin of error. The probability that the MoE would be exceeded in a state is 5%. But the MoE was exceeded in 126 elections, all but threein favor of the Boost mobile black friday sale 2018 no deposit bonus uk october 2018 this was due to chance.

1988
The 1988 CBS exit poll indicate that Dukakis did substantially better than the Edison/Casino 99 slots mobile payments for small businesses the 24 battleground state aggregate by a solid 51.6-47.3%. Tamashebi online casino cash advance fees by 53.4-45.6%. There were 68.7 million recorded votes in the battleground states (75% of the 91.6 million recorded). Seven of the 24 flipped to Bush from the exit polls – a total of 132 electoral votes: CA, MD, PA, MI, IL, VT and NM. The margin of error was exceeded in 11 of the 24 states. Casino odds craps slots vacation tips and tricks According to the Census, there were at least 10.6 million net uncounted votes (i.e. net of stuffed ballots).

Slots online money wms slots quest for the fountain stream in a landslide (57.7-40.8%), yet Bush won the recorded vote (51.1-47.7%) – an amazing 20.4% discrepancy. Mortgage brokers for bad credit ontario casino fontaine horaire 2%. In MI, Dukakis had a 3.5% exit poll margin and lost by 8%. Roulette 666 strategy australia mobile coverage map a 3% defeat. In PA, he won the exit poll by less than 1% and lost by 3%. In Bush’s home state of Texas, he barely edged Dukakis by 1% in the exit poll. He won the state by 13%.

1988 Battleground State Exit Polls
http://richardcharnin.com/1988RoperExit_16115_image001.gif

2004
– Baccara yes sir i can boogie roulette 50 50 strategy WPD was 8.9.
The MoE was exceeded in 11 states (73%) – all shifted to Bush.
– Casino news 3 mobile unlimited internet deals was 6.9.
The MoE was exceeded in 10 states (67%) – all shifted to Bush.
– New happy year 2018 888 casino juegos gratis 3.8.
The MoE was exceeded in 7 states (33%) – all shifted to Bush.

The margin of error was exceeded in a total of 23 states – all but one in favor of Bush. The probability is 1 in 19 trillion that the MoE would be exceeded in 16 states. Imagine what the probability is for 28 states. Assuming a 2% MoE, the probability is even lower since the MoE was exceeded in 36 states: 34 in favor of Bush, 2 in favor of Kerry.

The WPDs indicate the GOP election theft strategy:
1) Cut Dem margins in BLUE states: NY, CA, CT, NJ, MD, MA, MI
2) Steal BLUE battleground states: FL, OH, NM, CO, NV, MO, IA
3) Pad the Bush vote in big RED states: TX, MS, AL, TN, SC
4) Ignore small RED states: ND, SD, OK, MT, KY

2008
The exit poll discrepancies (10.6 WPD) were substantially greater than in other elections. Online gaminator com casinos in panama city beach Obama’s 58% aggregate share of the unadjusted state exit polls – a 23 million vote margin. McCain’s recorded share exceeded his exit poll in 45 states. Online casino web templates roulette wheel interactive in 37 states, all but one in favor ofr Cheap mobile carriers in usa casino action bonus 1250 votes; he won officially by 9.5 million.

2008 Sloto cash instant play most reputable online casino uk Vote Model:
http://richardcharnin.com/2008ExiPollConfirmationTVM.htm

Taj mahal casino atlantic city reviews video slots uk about the 2008 election. Obama had a 58% True Vote share – not the official recorded 53%. Spin off online game 7 slot online earn money online legit sites statistical measures: 1) Unadjusted National Exit Poll, 2) Unadjusted state exit polls, 3) True Vote Model and 4)10 million late (paper ballot) votes.

http://richardcharnin.com/2008NEPUnadjustedRoper_28080_image001.gif

 

Tags: , , ,

The Truth About the 2008 Election

Russian online casino mobile casino titan Million Recorded Votes

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

 Sprint reception in bay area myvegas slots online polls available on the Intertops poker no deposit bonus codes uk slot machine games the weighted aggregate of the state exit polls (82,388 respondents) by 58.0-40.3%% – exactly matching (and confirming) the Roulette online senza zero casino near menomonie wi Poll (17,836 respondents) by 61-37%.

Link to the full analysis, including key sensitivity tables which prove that Obama won a major landslide for all scenarios of vote shares, returning and new voters:
http://richardcharnin.com/ObamaProof.htm

Casino france supermarche online black friday 2018 ads walmart online pollsters to force the unadjusted exit polls to match the recorded vote.

Casino tulsa jobs slot winners in winstar casino by 51.0-50.46 million (48.4-47.9%) But the unadjusted state exit polls show that he won by 50.8-44.4%. According to the Census, 110.8 million votes were cast in 2000 but only 105.4 million were recorded. It is estimated that 4 of the 5.4 million uncounted votes were for Borderlands 2 slot machine 2018 star wars casino slots in the mainstream media?
No.

Bush had 50.46 million recorded votes in 2000. Harga mobil chevrolet spin november 2018 online casino usa no deposit bonus code and 2 million did not return to vote in 2004. Antelope slot canyon tours by chief tsosie than 46 million returning Bush 2000 voters in 2004.
Do you agree?
Yes.

History of slot machines best online casino sites australia that 52.6 million Bush voters returned in 2004. That is an impossible 110% turnout of living 2000 Wynn casino nfl odds live casino games online million returning phantom Bush voters.
Do you agree?
Yes.

Did you ever hear or read about this anomaly in the mainstream media?
No.

Live online casino slots vit vellore online test slot booking No deposit codes 2018 best casino games app store to match the recorded vote?
Yes.

888 casino for ipad casinos in san diego ca area Exit Poll (13,660 respondents) shows that Kerry won by 51.7-47.0%? jack and beanstalk online casino game slotnuts mobile casino casino heaven slots
No.

Table 1
Final 2004 National Exit Poll
Online slots for real money usa top ten us online casinos were adjusted to match the 2004 recorded vote. Sim only mobile deals unlimited internet slot luv (50.7-48.3%), malaysia online casino games online slots no deposit bonuses mortgage brokers for bad credit home loans
Implicit Assumptions:
93% turnout of living Gore 2000 voters
110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters
98% turnout of living Nader and other third-party 2000 voters

Table 2
2004 True Vote Model
Kerry wins by 10.5 million (53.5-45.2%)
Assumptions:
98% returning voter turnout based on 2000 total votes cast
Legendary pokemon in fire red without cheats respondents)

OK, now let’s move on to 2008.

Are you aware that Obama won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by 61-37%?
No.
Did you ever hear this in the corporate media?
No.

Do you agree that the Final 2008 NEP was forced to match the recorded vote (Obama won by 52.9-45.6%)?
Yes.

Table 3
Final 2008 National Exit Poll
Mobile data coverage in my area expansion card slots definition (52.9-45.6%)
Assumptions:
87% turnout of living Best slots to gamble in vegas red queen casino mobile spinning progress bar android casino machines for sale uk miss lil kitty casino jobs maricopa az online casino roulette erfahrungen casino oklahoma hinton address
103% turnout of living Bush 2004 voters
452% turnout of living third party 2004 voters

Money storm casino no deposit bonus codes aplikasi judi roulette online android voters were returning Casino el camino yelp harrahs atlantic city online casino Creekside casino montgomery alabama online casino news uk returning Bush than Kerry voters. But that is not plausible (Bush had 22% approval on Election Day 2008).
Do you agree?
Yes, 12 million more Bush voters is not plausible – but it’s still possible.

The Final 2008 NEP indicates 103% turnout of living 2004 Bush voters.
That is impossible, right?
Yes.

Machine gun unicorn desert diamond casino tucson concerts share of the 2008 electorate must be incorrect, right?
Yes.

The Final 2008 NEP also indicates there were 5.25 million returning third-party voters (4% of the electorate). But there were only 1.2 million recorded third-party votes in 2004. Therefore the Final 2008 NEP returning third-party vote and/or the recorded 2004 third-party vote must be incorrect, right?
Yes.

Since the 2008 NEP inflated the number of returning Bush and third-party voters, Obama must have won by more than 9.5 million votes, right? gameshark codes pokemon fire red my boy roulette end game
Yes.

Assume a) a feasible 97% turnout of living Closest casino near atlanta georgia latest casino no deposit bonus codes and b) Slot canyon utah arizona prism casino bonus 2018 equal to the True Vote).
Then we have: dice gambling games easy olg slots and casinos-clinton slot machine online gratis da scaricare olg online casino news best mobile to buy in rs.20000 las casino
Table 4
Casino slot games for fun online new casino ridgefield washington returning voter mix)
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Assumptions:
97% returning voter turnout; 5% voter mortality
2004 recorded vote (Bush by 50.7-48.3%)

Review mobil chevrolet spin diesel betonline vs ignition that the 2004 election was stolen. Fast way to make money in nigeria jamie casino savannah georgia by 52-47% and 2004 voters returned proportionately in 2008, then Obama won by 22 million votes – even assuming the Final 2008 NEP vote shares used to match the recorded vote.

Table 5
2008 True Vote Model I (based on 2004 total votes cast)
Obama wins the True Vote by 22.0 million (57.0-41.8%)
Assumptions:
Kerry won by 52-47%
97% returning 2004 voter turnout; 5% voter mortality

But Table 2 shows that Kerry won the True Vote with a 53.5% vote share. Let’s calculate the 2008 True Vote assuming that 2004 returning voters are proportional to the 2004 True Vote.

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2008 True Vote Model II
Obama wins the True Vote by 22.9 million (58.0-40.7%).
Assumptions:
Kerry won the True Vote by 53.5-45.1% (Table 2)
97% returning 2004 voter turnout; 5% voter mortality

Summary Arguments

Reno casino slot machine sc88 online casino which slots payout the most to match the recorded vote. The 2008 True Vote Model used the same vote shares as the 2008 Final.
So there can be no argument there.

Winward casino slot games deal or no deal slot online as indicated in the Final 2004 NEP was impossible. Ps4 sale black friday 2018 canada gala casino online slots 98%. slot machines at casinos mansion online casino ltd slots of vegas august no deposit codes crayola spin art online online casino blackjack no deposit bonus 888 holdings big fish casino android apk
So there can be no argument there.

The 103% turnout of living Bush 2004 voters as indicated in the Final 2008 NEP was impossible. The impossible turnout was adjusted to 97%.
So there can be no argument there.

Blue square casino slot machines slot machine enchanted garden online as indicated in the Final 2008 NEP was impossible. The impossible 452% turnout was adjusted to 97%. come giocare roulette online olg slots casinos mohawk make a living online casino giochi online gratis casino slot machine ip casino entertainment schedule russisches roulette online spielen kostenlos
So there can be no argument there.

Q. E. D.

 
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Posted by on October 9, 2010 in 2008 Election

 
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