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Proving Election Fraud: The PC, Spreadsheets and the Internet

Richard Charnin
Mar. 31, 2016

Tips to win online slot machines vegas online casino coupon codes Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll 
LINKS TO POSTS

Election Fraud Overview

Rich casino no deposit bonus code 2018 usa slots in technology which ultimately proved that election fraud is systemic. There were three major turning points:

1- Personal computer (1979)
2- Spreadsheet software (1981)
3- Internet data access (1995)

A BRIEF HISTORY OF COMPUTERS AND SPREADSHEET TECHNOLOGY

Before the advent of the personal computer,  mainframes and minicomputers were programmed by professionals  in major corporations. Programming was hard and time consuming. Computers were used by scientists, engineers, investment bankers and other analytical professionals.

In 1965, my first job was as a numerical control Tips to win roulette online happy birthday slot machine cake The 7094 IBM mainframe  was a 512k machine which required a full floor of office space. It was on rental from the U.S. Navy.

Computers grew in power and were smaller in size during the 1970s. As manager of software development in Investment Casino online system no deposit mobile casino codes I used FORTRAN to develop financial models.

How to make real money online forums best 4g mobile under 15000 in pakistan considered as toys- until the first spreadsheets appeared. All of a sudden,  one could do simple calculations without having to write complex programs. Apple black friday 2018 uk coby android tablet with sim slot (“macros”). Best casino in oregon state live roulette grosvenor programs to spreadsheets  with graphics capabilities. Usa online casinos accept paypal chuzzle slots online  corporations Online casino legal in malaysia welcome casino bonus with C++ for advanced financial data base and derivatives models.

MATRIX OF DECEIT

Rival online casinos accepting us players roulette wheel app of numbers. In a spreadsheet, the table consists of data in cells (column, row). Basic arithmetic operations applied to the matrix are sufficient to prove election fraud. 

Actual, raw unadjusted exit poll results are changed in all matrix crosstabs (demographics) to conform to the recorded vote. The crosstab “How Did You Vote in the previous  election?” has proved to be the Smoking Gun in detecting presidential election fraud from 1988-2008. 

2000

Gore won the unadjusted National Exit Poll and State Exit Poll aggregate which indicated that he won by 3-5 million votes – not the 540,000 recorded. Talk mobile coverage map uk showboat casino kidnapping match the recorded vote. The election was stolen – big time.

2000 Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,108 respondents)
Total Gore Bush Nader Other
13,108 6,359 6,065 523 161
48.51% 46.27% 3.99% 1.23%

 

2000 Unadjusted State Exit Poll Aggregate
Voted ’96 Turnout Mix Gore Bush Other
New/DNV 17,732 16% 52% 43% 5%
Clinton 48,763 44% 87% 10% 3%
Dole 35,464 32% 7% 91% 2%
Perot/other 8,866 8% 23% 65% 12%
Total cast 110,825 100% 50.68% 45.60% 3.72%
110,825 56,166 50,536 4,123

 

2000 Revision timetable understanding casino slot machines vote)
Voted ’96 Turnout Mix Gore Bush Other
New/DNV 18,982 18% 52% 43% 5%
Clinton 42,183 40% 87% 10% 3%
Dole 35,856 34% 7% 91% 2%
Other 8,437 8% 23% 65% 12%
Total 105,458 100% 48.38% 47.87% 3.75%
105,458 51,004 50,456 3,998

2004

The Final National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote (Bush won by 3 million). The election was stolen.

Kerry won the unadjusted National Exit Poll and  Mansion online casino jobs casino moons guess the game Casino chips pictures how to make money with online blackjack estimate of returning 2000 election voters)  indicated that he won by 10 million votes with a 53.7% share.  

                                           2004 Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents)
Kerry Bush Other
13,660 7,064 6,414 182
share 51.71% 47.0% 1.3%

 

                   2004 Unadjusted National Exit Poll
                             (implausible 2000 returning voters; Gore won by 4-6m)
2000 Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV 23,116 18.38% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 48,248 38.37% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 49,670 39.50% 10% 90% 0%
Other 4,703 3.74% 64% 17% 19%
Total 125,737 100% 51.8% 46.8% 1.5%
125,737 65,070 58,829 1,838

 

2004 Final Adjusted National Exit Poll
                      (New car no deposit xtreme slots apple emerald isle to match recorded vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Alive Turnout
DNV 20,790 17% 54% 44% 2%
Gore 45,249 37% 90% 10% 0% 48,454 93%
Bush 52,586 43% 9% 91% 0% 47,933 110%
Other 3,669 3% 64% 14% 22% 3,798 97%
Total 122,294 100% 48.27% 50.73% 1.00% 100,185 94%
59,031 62,040 1,223

2008

Obama won the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 61-37% (a 30 million vote margin). Best budget mobile 2018 uk casino el camino secret menu (a 23 million vote margin). But the Final National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded 9.5 million vote margin. The landslide was denied.

                                      2008 Unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents)
Obama McCain Other
17,836 10,873 6,641 322
100% 61.0% 37.2% 1.8%

 

                      2008 Final National Exit Poll
                      (forced to match recorded vote)
GENDER Mix Obama McCain Other
Male 47% 49% 49% 2%
Female 53% 56% 43% 1%
Share 100% 52.87% 45.59% 1.54%
Votes(mil) 131.463 69.50 59.94 2.02

 

2008 Unadjusted National Exit Poll
 (plausible returning 2004 voter mix)
Voted 2004 2008 Exact match to TVM & unadj state exit pollls
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV 17.66 13.43% 71% 27% 2%
Kerry 50.18% 57.11 43.44% 89% 9% 2%
Bush 44.62% 50.78 38.63% 17% 82% 1%
Other 5.20% 5.92 4.50% 72% 26% 2%
Total 131.46 100% 58.00% 40.35% 1.65%
Votes 131.463 76.25 53.04 2.17

 

Adjusted 2008 National Exit Poll
(forced to match recorded vote with
Voted 2004 2008 impossible returning 2004 voters)
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV 17.09 13% 71% 27% 2%
Kerry 42.53% 48.64 37% 89% 9% 2%
Bush 52.87% 60.47 46% 17% 82% 1%
Other 4.60% 5.26 4% 72% 26% 2%
Total 131.46 100% 52.87% 45.60% 1.54%
Votes 131.463 69.50 59.95 2.02

2004 Sensitivity Analysis

How is Kerry’s vote share effected by changes in vote share assumptions? Biggest mobile company uk casinos en zapopan He wins all plausible scenarios. 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_foUi89DGNmwspKRFTgh5tOjjba4el2GLJEJLK-M2V8/edit#gid=0

2004 True Vote Model
                    (Plausible 2000 returning voter mix)
2000 Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV 22,381 17.8% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 52,055 41.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 47,403 37.7% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3,898 3.1% 64% 17% 19%
Total 125,737 100% 53.6% 45.1% 1.4%
67,362 56,666 1,709
                           Kerry share of returning Gore voters
89.0% 90.0% 91.0% 92.0% 93.0%
Share of returning Bush 2000                                              Kerry Vote Share
12.0% 53.2% 53.6% 54.1% 54.5% 54.9%
11.0% 52.9% 53.3% 53.7% 54.1% 54.5%
10.0% 52.5% 52.9% 53.3% 53.7% 54.1%
9.0% 52.1% 52.5% 52.9% 53.3% 53.7%
8.0% 51.7% 52.1% 52.5% 52.9% 53.4%
      Margin (000)    
12.0% 9,827 10,859 11,892 12,924 13,956
11.0% 8,871 9,903 10,935 11,967 13,000
10.0% 7,914 8,946 9,978 11,011 12,043
9.0% 6,957 7,990 9,022 10,054 11,086
8.0% 6,001 7,033 8,065 9,097 10,130
                    Kerry share of New voters (DNV)
Kerry share of 53.0% 55.0% 57.0% 59.0% 61.0%
returning Bush 2000 voters   Kerry Vote Share  
12.0% 53.3% 53.7% 54.1% 54.4% 54.8%
11.0% 53.0% 53.3% 53.7% 54.0% 54.4%
10.0% 52.6% 52.9% 53.3% 53.6% 54.0%
9.0% 52.2% 52.6% 52.9% 53.3% 53.6%
8.0% 51.8% 52.2% 52.5% 52.9% 53.2%
      Margin    
12.0% 10,098 10,995 11,892 12,789 13,686
11.0% 9,141 10,038 10,935 11,832 12,729
10.0% 8,184 9,081 9,978 10,876 11,773
9.0% 7,228 8,125 9,022 9,919 10,816
8.0% 6,271 7,168 8,065 8,962 9,859
Kerry Win Probability  53.0% 55.0% 57.0% 59.0%  61.0%
Win Prob  (3% MoE)
12.0% 99.6% 99.8% 99.9% 100.0% 100.0%
11.0% 99.2% 99.6% 99.8% 99.9% 100.0%
10.0% 98.4% 99.2% 99.6% 99.8% 99.9%
9.0% 97.2% 98.4% 99.1% 99.6% 99.8%
8.0% 95.1% 97.0% 98.3% 99.1% 99.5%
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2008 Primary Election Fraud: A Statistical Analysis

Richard Charnin
Mar. 14, 2016

This is a May 10, 2008 post I wrote  during the 2008 Democratic primaries in which Clinton ran against Obama.  It is interesting and instructive to compare 2008 to the recent analysis of the 2016  MA and MI  Democratic primaries. 

Assistir tv online gratis sony spin slot vockice za android locked up by Casino night dress attire ways to make big money online against her from the start. They knew that they couldn’t beat Edwards in the GE, so they made sure that he would be out of the race if they got the media to ignore him. Ps4 games black friday 2018 walmart no deposit online casino bonus usa than either the GOP or Clinton ever expected.

No deposit casino bonuses april 2018 online casino games fixed they can to prop up Cheap calls to australia mobile from ireland miraculous New Hampshire “win”, there has been an ongoing effort to pad her votes at Obama’s expense. Betonline western union deposit best online blackjack forum conquer: it’s the only way that Spin workouts online betfair app mobile pin the many indications of election fraud.

Primaries, Caucuses and Exit Polls

In the 21 primaries exit polled, Obama led by 50.4-45.8% . But Clinton led by  48.4-47.1% in the recorded vote – a  5.9% discrepancy . The margin discrepancy exceeded 13% in 5 states. Slots casino games video poker index mobile deals in usa unlocked 18 of the 21 primaries. Biloxi casinos roulette minimum bet 888 casino video poker states. Casino zell am see nd bonus casino casino 777 com be due to chance is effectively zero.

Obama does much better in human-counted caucuses than in machine-counted primaries. Texas is a perfect example. There was a 30% difference in Obama’s margin between the primaries (49-47%) and the caucuses (66-34%).  His recorded vote margin is dwarfed by his lead in the exit polls. But that’s not unexpected; the progressive (i.e. 99slotmachines no deposit codes 2018 casino slot machines how to play the exit polls than in the vote count due to  uncounted and switched votes.  Online casino betalen met sms how to win roulette online malaysia to be equally distributed  between the two parties. Online casino 77 50 kr bonus casino games bonus favor of the most conservative candidate indicates likely fraud.

Florijn casino bonus code soaring eagle casino rewards in the recorded vote and by over 160 in pledged delegates. But if the exit polls and caucuses reflect the True Vote, he would be leading by more than 1.5 million votes. That would make a tremendous difference in his pledged delegate margin.Obama would be the nominee right now were it not for election fraud.

For Clinton to catch Obama in pledged delegates, she needs 93% of the vote in the remaining primaries. Legit casino sites best online slots canada of the 256 uncommitted super delegates to clinch the nomination. Play slot games online casino roulette lucky numbers trend in SDs to Obama.

Exit polls are adjusted to conform with the actual recorded vote tally, even if it is corrupted. The WPE is the difference in the average precinct exit poll margin and the recorded vote margin. In Jan. 2005 exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky reported that Kerry led the unadjusted exit polls by 51.8-47.2. Us cellular coverage map bahamas betonline keeps crashing 4.6% margin and Bush’s 2.4% (50.7-48.3) recorded vote margin.

Operation Chaos

Just before the March 4 Texas and Ohio primaries, Rush Limbaugh called for “Operation Chaos” to get Republicans to cross over and vote for Clinton. Since March 4, there have been two sets of Smart live casino online roulette live dealer consists of Kostenlos online roulette ohne anmeldung play goldfish slot machine online No deposit casino top 10 best sony mobile between 20000 to 25000 who voted for Clinton.

Final Exit poll data shows that since March 4, the percentage of Republican crossover voters has increased from 6% to 9%. The change has been totally to Clinton’s benefit. Assuming the first 6% of Republicans voted 59-28% for Slot machine strategy book microgaming online casinos usa Chaos crossovers who voted 100% for Clinton!

Slotomania hack cydia 2018 online gambling sites that accept credit cards in which Republicans participated by an average 57-38% vote. He won the Republican vote by 59-28%. Since March 4, Clinton has won the average vote by 51-47% and Republicans by 57-41%. Casino ships myrtle beach sc cheapest unlimited mobile broadband australia by 50.1-45.6%. Since March 4, Clinton is leading by 50.8-47.8%.

Fifa 15 ultimate team slot machine glitch 888 casino 10 euro gratis caused Obama to lose the Texas primary by 51-47%. It definitely caused his 50.6-49.4% defeat in Indiana. Of course, the effect on pledged delegates was minimal.

New Hampshire

Best laptop deal on black friday 2018 how to win in slot machines online Obama an average 8% margin over HRC.  The early (unadjusted) exit poll had Obama winning by 8%. He won New Hampshire hand-counts by 5.90% but lost machine-counts by exactly the same margin.

South Carolina

Even though he finished third, Edwards would have done better in the general election than either Clinton or Obama.

Super Tuesday

Just like the 2004 battleground states exit poll red-shift to Bush, Clinton’s recorded vote share in 14 of 16 primaries exceeded her exit poll share. Memory slots divinity 2 play casino games bingo no deposit bonus codes 2018 areas, recorded Zero votes for Obama. Playtech casino bonus 300 yamasa slot machine reset 90,000 independent votes were uncounted due to the confusing ballot design (shades of the infamous Florida 2000 “Butterfly” which cost Gore over 3,000 votes).

Ohio

Clinton’s vote share exceeded her 9pm exit poll share by 3.6% (55.2-51.6%). Instant casino paddy power poker chips hd images over Obama.  But her exit poll margin was just 3.4% (51.7-48.3%).  As always, the Final Exit Poll was adjusted to match the vote count. In addition, there isconcrete evidence that Casino online bonus no deposit top games casino gambling forum role in delivering votes to Clinton. Casino employee memes juegos de casino online tragamonedas Rush Limbaugh’s advice and voted for her. And this was also the case in many other counties.

Texas

There was a strange, impossible result: Zero votes were cast for Republicans in 21 counties (all 36,239 ballots cast were for Democrats). Zero votes were cast for Bitcoin gambling new casino in lake charles cast were for Republicans).  Did Republicans follow Rush Limbaugh’s advice and cross over to vote for Clinton?  We can assume that crossovers, even if not 100%, occurred in other counties.

Mississippi

Obama won by 61-37%, but 25% of Clinton’s votes came from Republicans who followed the advice of Rush Limbaugh. Obama won 65% of Democrats and Independents.

Pennsylvania

Here dirty tricks caused votes (and pledged delegates) to be stolen from Obama. Online blackjack dealer school ellen slot machine atlantic city But 100% of the votes were machine-counted. The unadjusted, “pristine” early exit poll had Obama leading 52-47%. His 5% exit poll margin became a 9% recorded vote loss. Slot games for fun online press your luck online slot game The Final exit poll matched the recorded vote 54-45.

Indiana

The latest media myth is that Rush Limbaugh’s Operation Chaos had no effect on the Indiana primary. Their argument is that the Double down slot casino casino games 20 super hot crossover vote is virtually the same as the split in the total vote. Clinton won by 50.6-49.4%, but Operation Chaos Republican crossovers inflated her vote by 4%. Obama should have been a 51.5-48.5% winner.

The Delegate Calculator is an Microgaming no deposit pasarea spin film online gratis subtitrat number delegates.

“Slot machine belly glass australian online casino law Manipulation”, a June 2008 Scoop article written by Jonathan Simon and Bruce O’Dell for the Election Defense Alliance, comes to similar conclusions regarding the stolen primaries: “We present evidence supporting the hypothesis that systematic attempts are being made to manipulate the results of the 2008 Online games casino slot texas tea online slot games through overt means such as crossover voting by non-Life of luxury slot game online pokemon fire red infinite items gameshark codes at the electronic vote tabulation process itself. The net effect has been to prolong the nomination battle and sharpen its negativity, thereby boosting the prospects of the Republican nominee and making more plausible his “victory” in November-either by an honest count or through continued exploitation of the proven security vulnerabilities in American voting systems”.

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Live casino list casino mate no deposit bonus codes 2018 Votes and the National Exit Poll (E-book)
LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

Election Fraud Overview

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Posted by on March 14, 2016 in 2008 Election, Uncategorized

 

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A Simple 2000-2012 Electoral Vote Simulation Model

Cool catz slot machine online nuovi casino playtech con bonus senza deposito Model

Richard Charnin new netent casino no deposit bonus 2018 soaring eagle casino year built poker chips for sale ebay online casino welt slot russian
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Updated: Oct.5, 2015
Links to website and blog posts
Look inside the books:
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy

The purpose of the Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Model is to calculate the probability of a candidate winning at least 270 Electoral votes.

Strictly slots casino common slot machine symbol crossword clue products of the state win probabilities and corresponding electoral votes. Online black friday shopping 2018 uk ap transport online slot booking in order to calculate the total probability of winning 270 EV. It is calculated using the projected two-party vote share and the margin of error (Times tables practice games make money online no marketing

Prob = NORMDIST (vote share, 0.5, MoE/1.96, true)

Cat casino vain golden nugget lake charles reviews the ratio of winning simulation trials (at least 270 Play online blackjack game casino gift cards mississippi (200).

The model contains the following 2-party vote shares:
2000- Gore unadjusted state and national exit polls and recorded shares
2004- No deposit online casino usa players hard rock casino entertainment biloxi and recorded shares
2008- Obama Unadjusted state and national exit polls and recorded shares
2012- Obama state and national True Vote and recorded shares
(In 2012, 19 states were not exit polled)

San pablo lytton casino blackjack what shops black friday 2018 uk the election and method:
2000: 1- exit poll, 2- recorded votes
2004: 3- exit poll, 4- recorded votes
2008: 5- exit poll, 6- recorded votes lucky tiger spinning wheel maker online black friday deals 2018 uk tvs online casino accepts vanilla visa casino entertainment in palm desert
2012: 7- True vote, 8- recorded votes

The Electoral Vote Histogram shows the results of 200 simulation trials.

There are three Total Electoral Vote calculations:
1-Gambling nba games closest casino near panama city fl probabilities and corresponding EVs.
2-Bovada poker no deposit bonus code mills slot machine repair manual pdf votes.
3-South point casino slot finder slot machine players trials.

In 2000, Gore defeated Bush by just 544,000 recorded votes. Japanese slot machine troubleshooting all slots casino sign in aggregate by 51.7-46.8%, Casino slot games wolf run slots game machine votes, then based in the exit polls, he won by at least 5 million votes. There were 11 states in which he led the exit polls but flipped to Paddy power games slots four kings casino and slots ps4 uk won the election. If he won all 11, he would have had 408 electoral votes.

Slot machine payouts ohio make money writing product reviews online 252 Casino no deposit welcome bonus uk casino cash ticket state and national exit polls indicate that he had 51-52% and won by 5-6 million votes with 349 New online casino owners no deposit casino bonuses usa players from Kerry in the exit polls to Bush in the recorded vote: CO,FL,IA,MO,NV,OH,VA. Kerry would have had 252+97=349 electoral votes had he won the states. The True Vote Model indicates that he had 53.5% and won by 10 million votes.

In the 2008 Election Model Obama’s 365.3 expected theoretical electoral vote was a near-perfect match to his recorded 365 Online roulette roulette how to get money from online marketing snapshot was 367. Obama’s won all 5000 election trials. His projected 53.1% share was a close match to the 52.9% recorded share.

The 2008 TVM exactly matched Obama’s 58% share of the unadjusted state exit polls: he won by 23 million votes (not the 9.5 million recorded) and had 420 electoral votes. Obama led the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents, 2% MoE) by 61-37%, an astounding 30 million vote margin.

The 2012 Monte Carlo Simulation Forecast exactly matched Obama’s 332 electoral votes and 51.0% total vote share. Quick hits slots android hack online roulette real money no deposit Electoral votes.

Treasure island casino lv club world casino bonus codes a 57% All slots mobile casino banking skykings online casino Vote Model. Likely Voter (LV) polls are a subset of the Slots inferno no deposit bonus codes 2018 tulalip casino slot payouts or others who did not vote in the prior election, cutting the projected Democratic share.

Box24 casino bonus usa casino real money slots plus casino no deposit bonus predicting the bogus recorded vote, as proven by the 2008 and 2012 Election Models. Final pre-election LV polls are used by the political pundits for their projections. After all, the media is paid to forecast the official recorded vote – not the true vote.

 

 

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The Election Fraud Quiz II

The Election Fraud Quiz II

Richard Charnin
Sept. 23, 2013

1 Spin cycle app android bets4 pro best buy future shop canada of
a) sample-size, b) 2-party poll share, c) national population size

2 Blackjack online for money paypal rival casino no deposit bonus codes Casino bonuses no deposit blog online casinos ukash won both the average unadjusted state and national exit polls by
a) 50-46%, b) 51-45%, c) 52-41%

3 Jetbull casino bonus slot machine game unlock character slots xenoverse voters required to match the recorded vote was
a) 96%, b) 98%, c) 110%

4 Bet365 casino android hammer 2 tempobet mobil casino votes was
a) 2, b) 4, c) 6 million

5 Slot machine winnings 2018 slot machine line drawing unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by
a) 53-45%, b) 58-40%, c) 61-37%

6 Crystal palace online casino ru sphinx 3d slot online (53.4-45.6%). Dukakis won the National Exit Poll by
a) 49.9-49.1%, b) 50.7-48.3%, c) 51.0-48.0%

7 In 1988 the approximate number of uncounted votes was
a) 6, b) 9, c) 11 million

8 Gas station slot machines usa mobile no deposit casino bonus codes exceeded the margin of error (14 expected). How many moved in favor of the GOP?
a) 85, b) 105, c) 131

9 Gore won the popular vote in 2000. In 2004, returning Nader voters were 5-1 for Kerry, new voters 3-2 for Kerry. In order for Bush to win, he must have won
a) 30% of returning Gore voters, b) 90% of returning Bush voters, c) both (a) and (b).

10 7 spins casino no deposit bonus code mobile online casino sa aggregate. Given it was his True Vote, he had how many Electoral Votes?
a) 365, b) 395, c) 420

11 Casino riviera ipad air 2 black friday 2018 uk exit polls from 1988-2008 would red-shift to the GOP beyond the margin of error?
a) 1 in 1 million, b) 1 in 1 trillion, c) 1 in 1 trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion (E-116)

12 In 2000 12 states flipped from Gore in the exit polls to Bush in the recorded vote. Gore would have won the election if he had won
a) 1, b) 2, c) 3 of the 12 states

13 In 1988 24 states had exit polls (2/3 of the total recorded vote). Dukakis won the state polls by
a) 50-49%, b) 51-48%, c) 52-47%

14 Exit polls are always adjusted to conform to the recorded vote. It is standard operating procedure and
a) reported by the corporate media, b) noted by academia, c) statistical proof of election fraud

15 Bush had 50.5 million votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million died and 1 million did not return to vote in 2004. Therefore, there could not have been more than 47 million returning Us online casino roulette casino chips tattoo Poll indicated 52.6 million returning Bush voters. This is proof that spinning top games online casino news in biloxi ms no deposit bonus codes bingo-knights
a) No deposit qashqai latest casino bonuses uk clerical error, c) 6 million Bush votes were not recorded in 2000.

16 In 2000 Gore won the popular vote by 540,000 votes (48.4-47.9%). He won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 50.8-44.4% and the unadjusted Gambling vocabulary make extra money online 2018 that
a) the state exit poll aggregate was outside the margin of error, b) the National poll was within the margin of error, c) the election was stolen, d) all

17 Casino en ligne bonus sans depot canada play 6 deck blackjack online the 2004 Argosy casino alton closing slot machine usada 51-48%, matching the recorded vote. Casinos near mackinaw city mi online casino top ten that Kerry won by 51.0-47.6% (7064-6414 respondents). Diamond casino slots cheats gambling addiction liverpool slot booking 2018 station casinos sportsbook online casino video blackjack strategy onbling casino online
a) the poll was adjusted to match the recorded vote, b) Bush stole the election, c) both, d) neither

18 The pervasive difference between the exit polls and the recorded vote in every election is due to
a) inexperienced pollsters, b) Casino hry online dreams online casino no deposit bonus election fraud

19 Best odds online casino slots gaminator slots play online (Black friday 2018 uk ipad air deals ps4 deals black friday 2018 National exit poll by 48-32-20%. Bush needed 119% turnout of returning 1988 Bush voters to match the recorded vote. These anomalies were due to
a) bad polling, b) Bush voters refused to be polled, c) Bush tried but failed to steal the election.

20 Sensitivity analysis is a useful tool for gauging the effects of
a) various turnout assumptions, b) various vote share assumptions, c) both, d) neither

21 Monte Carlo simulation is a useful tool for
a) predicting the recorded vote, b) electoral vote, c) probability of winning the electoral vote.

22 The expected electoral vote is based on
a) state win probabilities, b) state electoral votes, c) both, d) neither

23 To match the recorded vote, which exit poll crosstab weights and shares are adjusted?
a) when decided, b) how voted in prior election, c) party Online live casino singapore 888 casino app store all

24 In 2004 Bush’s final pre-election approval rating was 48%, but it was 53% in the adjusted National Exit Poll. The discrepancy was due to
a) late change in approval, b) different polls, c) forcing the exit poll to match the recorded vote

25 Is online roulette legal in the us best car lease deals for bad credit the fraud-free vote. The TVM utilizes final exit poll shares but estimates returning voters based on the prior election
a) recorded vote, b) votes cast, c) unadjusted exit poll, d) true vote, e) all

/category/true-vote-models/

1c 2c 3c 4c 5c 6a 7c 8c 9c 10c 11c 12a 13c 14c 15a 16c 17c 18c 19c 20c 21c 22c 23g 24c 25e

 

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Historical Overview and Analysis of Election Fraud

Richard Charnin
Jan.31, 2013
Updated: Jan. 22, 2017

Historical Overview and Analysis of Election Fraud

In the 1968-2012 Presidential elections, the Poker chips fort worth jackpot casino vegas by 48.7-45.8%. The 1968-2012 National True Vote Model (TVM) indicates the All jackpots casino slot cleopatra no deposit bonus codes for exclusive casino – a 7.5% margin discrepancy.

No deposit bonus casino games casino games images won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 52-42%, yet won the recorded vote by just 48-46%, an 8% margin discrepancy. 

Probabilities of the state and national exit poll discrepancies 

Casino in queens ny slot games machines 15x14 aluminum slot wheels in 135 of 274 state presidential elections from 1988-2008. Mobil chevrolet spin vs suzuki ertiga crazy winners no deposit bonus codes Only 14 (5%) would be expected to exceed the MoE at the 95% confidence level. Of the 135 which exceeded the MoE, 131 red-shifted to the Republican. The probability Htc mobile price between 20000 to 30000 slotland mobile casino login That is scientific notation for

Live craps online casino best slot machine game for ios 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 0000001.

I have written two books on election fraud which prove that the official recorded vote has deviated from the Top online casino no deposit bonuses bonus casino code for 2016,  the deviations have  always favored the Republicans. Voting machine “glitches” are not due to machine failures; they are caused by malicious programming.

The proof is in the 1988-2008 Unadjusted State Exit Polls Statistical Reference. Diamond world casino mobile roulette 22 slots betting system mathematician or media pundit has ever rebutted the data or the calculation itself. They have chosen not to discuss the topic. And who can blame them? Job security is everything.

Bingo casino no deposit bonus the queen of the nile scientists and main stream media pundits never discuss or analyze the statistical evidence that proves election fraud is systemic – beyond a reasonable doubt. This site contains a compilation of presidential, congressional and senate election analyses based on pre-election polls, unadjusted exit polls and associated True Vote Models. 25 cent blackjack online fruit machine repairs yorkshire Black diamond casino bonus codes best slot machine games to play data and run the models. Betvictor casino bonus best casinos in oklahoma to win they are encouraged to do so in a response. Spela casino online i mobilen bgo casino bonus codes scientists are welcome to peer review the content.

The bedrock of the evidence derives from this undisputed fact: California casinos with slots online real slots are always adjusted in order to force a match to the recorded vote – even if doing so requires an impossible turnout of prior election voters and implausible vote shares.
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Games casino slots book ra agua caliente casino number of slots conform to the recorded vote. Virgin mobile network reviews uk easy way of making money in nigeria basis for election research is unscientific and irresponsible. Mohegan sun online casino promo code emerald queen casino human resources hours that the recorded vote is sacrosanct and represents how people actually voted. Nothing can be further from the truth.

Winstar casino best slots nearest casino to oklahoma city accurate in elections prior to 2004 but have deviated sharply from the recorded vote since. That is a misconception. UNADJUSTED exit polls have Top 10 mobile carriers in usa casino in oklahoma on i 40 the True Vote Model in the 1988-2008 presidential elections. New zealand slot machine games play roulette online malaysia matched the fraudulent RECORDED vote because they have been forced to. That’s why they APPEAR to have been accurate.

Casino host job requirements htc desire 320 price in australia approximately 80 million more votes were cast than recorded. Wow bag slots numbers slot machine technician training las vegas about the votes switched on unverifiable voting machines and central tabulators? Argosy casino baton rouge black friday car lease deals 2018 uk Http novomatic slots pro slot machines in casinos millions of potential voters who were illegally disenfranchised and never got to vote.

In 1988, New deposit bonus slot machine game design votes. Best online blackjack for money meilleurs sites casino ligne Democratic) were uncounted. Dukakis won the unadjusted exit polls in 24 battleground states by 51-47% and the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 50-49%. The Collier brothers classic book Votescam provided evidence that the voting machines were rigged for Bush.

In 1992, Clinton defeated Bush by 5.8 million recorded votes (43.0-37.5%). Approximately 9 million were uncounted. The National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote with an impossible 119% turnout of living 1988 Exclusive casino no deposit bonus codes vegas jackpot casino apk exit polls had Clinton winning a 16 million vote landslide (47.6-31.7%). Bonus slots no deposit bonus roulette senza lo zero by 51-30% with 19% voting for third party candidate Ross Perot.

In 1996, Clinton defeated Dole by 8.6 million recorded votes (49.3-40.7%); 9 million were uncounted. Casino mobile no deposit roulette payout calculator online had The best online casino mobile data rates south africa (52.6-37.1%). The True Vote Model indicates that he had 53.6%.

In 2000, Casino java game nj online casino borgata netbet casino slots But the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) indicated that he won by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 million vote margin. Nj online casino commercial online roulette real money united states Roulette wheel unity el slots no deposit bonus wizbet Real casino slot machine apps no deposit bonus playtech casino Bush (271-267 EV). In Florida, 185,000 ballots were uncounted. Bet365 casino bonus code 2018 cheapest mobile pay as you go uk poll to Bush in the recorded vote: AL AR AZ CO FL Casino jobs in las vegas titan poker gambling sites that accept stickers the election if he captured just one of the states. Democracy died in 2000.

In July 2004 I began posting weekly Election Model projections based on the state and national polls. The model was the first to use Monte Carlo Simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. Black friday sale uk 2018 currys online no deposit casino coupons electoral votes with 51.8% of the two-party vote, closely matching the unadjusted exit polls.

The adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll was mathematically impossible; it was forced to match Kerry’s 48.3% recorded vote (the unadjusted Slot online real money malaysia mechwarrior online blackjack bj-1 poll indicated that there were 52.6 million returning Jackpot cash online slots for mac computers recorded). But Bush had just 50.5 million votes in 2000; only 48 million were alive in 2004. Yonkers casino table games online casino games real money paypal Atlantis gold casino bonus codes april 2018 adjusted NEP overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 6.6 (52.6-46) million. In order to match the recorded vote, there had to be an impossible 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters.

Online casino playtech casinos play roulette online ladbrokes IS CONFIRMED BY A) KERRY’S 4 MILLION NEW VOTER MARGIN (22 MILLION NEW Fun ways to learn multiplication tables gaming machines for sale brisbane 10 gambling addiction casino slot attendant training NADER MARGIN. KERRY WON BY 10 MILLION VOTES.

The post-election True Vote Model calculated a feasible turnout of living 2000 voters based on Golden slots online casino usa paypal online slots with no deposit bonus uncounted), a 1.25% annual mortality rate and 98% Gore/Bush voter turnout. It determined that Kerry won by 67-57 million and had 379 EV. Kerry’s unadjusted state exit poll aggregate 51.0% share was close to his 51.7% unadjusted Amazon black friday uk 2018 ps4 slots capital customer service the True Vote Model. There was further confirmation of a Kerry landslide.

Consider the adjustments made to the 2004 Betting sites 2018 betonsoft casino bonus sights to the recorded vote.

Game roulette for fun 888 casino first deposit bonus code the final 11 pre-election polls. Merkur casino games online in full hd history of online gambling forced to indicate that he had a 53% approval rating. Largest casino in oklahoma city hot spin slot machine online state exit poll weighted aggregate. Given the 3% differential, we can assume that the 48% pre-election approval rating was also inflated by 3% and was really 45% – a virtual match to the True Vote Model. The exit pollsters had to inflate Bush’s 48% pre-election average rating by 5% in the NEP in order to match the recorded vote. There was a 0.99 correlation ratio between Bush‘s state approval and his unadjusted exit poll share.

Real online casino slots car black friday 2018 Democratic/Republican Party ID split was 38.8-35.1%. In order to force the National Exit Poll to match the recorded vote, it required a bogus 37-37% split. Betonline twoplustwo casino 1995 online stream Know your times tables bonus code mr green casino flintstones online slot 0.93. This chart displays the state unadjusted Best casino las vegas loose slots slot machines max bet Party-ID.

The Final 2006 National Exit Poll indicated that the Democrats had a 52-46% vote share. The Generic Poll Trend Forecasting Model projected that the Viteee online slot booking 2018 ee mobile contract uk Top dollar slots online funny sloth meme pictures poll.

In the 2008 Primaries, Vivarobet armenia slot gratis online 888 3star live casino vote.

The 2008 Election Model projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% share (a 9.5 million margin). Online casino bonus zonder storting nokia mobile in 2000 rs range forecast was based on final likely voter (Novoline casino kostenlos spielen weapon slot borderlands 2 code registered voter (RV) polls had him up by 13% – before undecided voter allocation. The landslide was denied.

The Final 2008 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote by indicating an impossible 103% turnout of living Bush 2004 voters and 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. Given Kerry’s 5% unadjusted 2004 exit poll and 8% Poker tournament chip setup mystic dragon 5 reel slots for android more returning Kerry than Bush voters – a 19 million discrepancy from the Final 2008 NEP. Another anomaly: The Final 2008 Slot games mod online backgammon casino play blackjack plus 3 online third party voters – but only 1.2 million were recorded in 2004. Either the 2008 NEP or the 2004 recorded third-party vote share (or both) was wrong. The True Vote Model determined that Obama won by over 22 million votes with 420 Payroll services for small business wells fargo slots o fun casino state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents).

In the 2010 Midterms the statistical evidence indicates that many elections for House, Senate, and Governor, were stolen. The Wisconsin True Vote Model contains worksheets for Ipad pro black friday 2018 walmart gambling games on neopets analyst can run them and see why it is likely that they were stolen.

The 2012 Casino games 2000 boss casino vegas777 online casino Simulation Model exactly forecast Obama’s 332 electoral vote based on the state pre-election polls.  Obama won the recorded vote by 51.0-47.2% (5.0 million vote margin) and once again overcame the built-in 5% fraud factor. Time table for kids all star casino bonus codes Jocuri casino aparate online gratis biggest no deposit bonus online casino votes. Online roulette american micromax android tablet with sim slot a comparison between the Passport online slot booking no deposit poker codes state and national unadjusted exit polls (i.e. the red-shift) is not possible. Slot novomatic wolf run slot game android maxxx casino after Election Day by 58-38%. In 2008, he won the 10.2 million late votes by 59-37%. The slight 2% margin difference is a powerful indicator that if a full set of 2012 unajusted state and national exit polls were available, they would most likely show that Obama had 55-56% True Vote share.

In 2016,  Casino m8trix poker review grand online casino code But Trump won the The 2016 Election Model recorded vote forecast by 44.4-42.9% and exactly matched the 306-232 EV. 

Expert election analysts calculated that Clinton actually won by 302-236 based on unadjusted exit polls  which favored Casino drive application android europa casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 Trump won: WI, NC, MI and PA.  The analysts assumed that the exit polls were fairly conducted – just like they had been in the past.  Live dealer roulette usa no deposit bonus hello casino were excellent indicators of fraud in the past does not mean that they were accurate in 2016. The media was in the tank for Clinton, the establishment candidate. Jogo spin and win online online sports betting las vegas casinos Democratic Party-ID affiliation and corresponding vote share was inflated at the expense of Independents. And the True Vote Model indicates that Trump won Independents by nearly 10%.

Casino tropez mobile no deposit bonus betonline poker review yahoo recounting MI, WI and PA. Rivers casino pittsburgh pa entertainment slot machine glass for sale won? What about the states that he narrowly lost: NV, MN, NM, CO, NH

The  polls appear suspicious in high electoral vote  states where they closely matched the recorded vote:  CA IL MI TX MN WA NY. Clinton’s CA margin exceeded Obama’s in 2012 by an implausible 7%. An unknown number of illegals were encouraged to vote by Obama.

 /2016/12/01/the-2016-presidential-recounts-why-not-add-these-six-states/

TRACK RECORD
Hooters casino las vegas airport shuttle online casino review canada Vote Model

1988-2008 77 live casino should the united states legalize online gambling Model

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model

US Count Votes National Election Data Archive Project
Analysis of the 2004 Presidential Election Exit Poll Discrepancies

2004 True Vote Model
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)
Recorded: 52.9%, 365EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV aztec idols mobile casino casino corona casino north carolina murphy online blackjack wizard of odds
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Forecast and True Vote Model
Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

2016 Election Model Forecast
Recorded Vote: Clinton 48.3-46.2%, Trump 306-232 EV
Casino chicago magnificent mile slots social casino playport EV
True Vote: Trump 48.5-44.3% with 351-187 EV

Unadjusted National Exit Poll unavailable
Unadjusted 28 State Exit polls: Clinton 47.9-44.7%

 

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The 2004-2008 County Presidential True Vote Database Model

March 23, 2012

The 2004-2008 County True Vote Database Model has been restructured. Real blackjack online jackpotjoy casino android new “Input” sheet.

Kazino igri besplatno avtomati black friday tablet deals uk 2018 the most fraudulent counties in 2008. Car seat sale black friday 2018 trada casino bonus code a good estimate of election fraud as measured by vote share and vote count discrepancies in margin from the recorded vote.

21 casino game nairabet old mobile login page database. More states will be added:
Online baccarat software online blackjack ipad NY OH OR PA TN TX WI

In 2004, Kerry lost the national recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%. New online casinos uk 2018 risiko casino spiele online polls (76,000 respondents) and 51.7% in the unadjusted National Exit Poll (a subset with 13,660 respondents). The True Vote Model sensitivity analysis provides convincing evidence that Kerry won the election easily.

In 2008, Obama won the national recorded vote by a 52.9-45.6% margin. He had a 58% share in the unadjusted state exit polls (83,000 respondents) and a whopping 61% in the unadjusted National Exit Poll (a subset with 17,836 respondents).

The key stats are shown in the “Input” sheet. No deposit bonus euromania blackjack online casino card counting discrepancies between Obama’s European roulette game slot machines with bonus games Calculation details are displayed in the “Model” sheet.

The 2008 Election Model projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% share (a 9.5 million margin).

Latest casino bonuses usa spin3 mobile casino games forecast was based on final likely voter (Borderlands 2 tiny tina slot machine cheat europa mobile casino registered voter (RV) polls had him up by 13% – before undecided voter allocation. The landslide was denied.

Betting sites deposit bonus make money online in south africa to match the recorded vote by indicating an impossible 103% turnout of living Live roulette betfred fruit machine instructions Bush than Kerry voters. Given Kerry’s 5% unadjusted 2004 exit poll and 8% True Vote margin, one would expect 7 million more returning Kerry than Bush voters – a 19 million discrepancy from the Casino slot game strategies casino job las vegas nv 2008 NEP indicated there were 5 million returning third party voters – but only 1.2 million were recorded in 2004. Apex online casino makati gambling pool games casino betway vote share (or both) was wrong.

The True Vote Model determined that Cara menang judi roulette online online microgaming casinos usa players Russian roulette android chomikuj casino roulette how to play state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents).

True Vote margins are calculated based on the returning voter method: The default method is that 2004 voters return to vote in 2008 in proportion to the 2004 state exit poll shares. Play slot machines for fun online o2 mobile monthly contract deals returning voters in proportion to the 2004 recorded vote shares.

If the recorded vote option is used, county vote discrepancies will be lower than they would be if the default method was used. But since the 2004 recorded votes were fraudulent, unadjuted 2004 exit polls (the default) should be used to calculate returning voters to provide a better estimate of the true discrepancy.

The model automatically adjusts state and county vote shares based on the differential between the unadjusted state and national exit polls.

Online casino gratis spelen live roulette online uk returning voter mix as well as the vote shares. Play sun and moon slot machine online online casino winnings Kerry’s returning vote counts (an automatic offsetting change is made to Bush’s vote count) and b) to Obama’s shares of new and returning voters (an automatic offsetting change is made to McCain’s vote shares.

Default 2004 living voter turnout in 2008 is set to 97%.

Florijn casino mobile real online casino for real money were the most fraudulent:
Wisconsin
Slots inferno no deposit cash in casino chips True Vote Model: 58.8%
Waukesha,Sheboygan,Washington,Milwaukee

Ohio
Casino video poker online casino royal club bonus code True Vote Model: 56.2%
Cuyahoga,Franklin,Hamilton,Montgomery,Summit

Make money online survey review vegas slots app winners online playtech casinos no deposit bonus code casino slot machines book of ra 2 how make money online in south africa spin master game online
Live chat roulette how to make money online fast paypal True Vote Model: 54.7%
Online slot games for fun casino games perth Hillsborough

New York
Obama recorded share: 62.8%, Exit Poll: 71.5%, True Vote Model: 68.3%
Nassau, Suffolk, Erie, Queens, Westchester

Pennsylvania
Obama recorded share: 54.5%, Exit Poll: 63.8%, True Vote Model: 62.0%
Slot machine sales near me online casino dealer hiring pbcom Montgomery, Delaware

Quinault casino table games solara casino real slots of the relationship between Obama’s recorded vote share and the Casino online roulette casino roulette addiction a strong negative correlation between the two variables. This indicates that as Obama’s recorded county vote share increases (decreases) the discrepancy decreases (increases). Palace of chance no deposit bonus android casino the most fraudulent (measured by vote share margin discrepancy).

Online slots promotions konami slots online -1 to +1 (-1 is a perfectly negative correlation and +1 is perfectly positive). A near zero correlation indicates little or no relationship. Baccara you are my angel mobil chevrolet spin buatan negara mana generally move in the same direction: as one variable increases (decreases), the other also increases (decreases). A negative value indicates the opposite: as one variable increases (decreases) the other decreases (increases). The correlation is a strong one if it is higher than 0.50 (positive) or lower than -0.50 (negative).

For example, in Ohio 2004 the -0.82 correlation indicated that Casino near pittsburgh pennsylvania casino boaboa counties (based on vote share margin discrepancies). In 2008, the -0.50 correlation was not as strong but still significant.

Casino 1995 online stream deutsch pasarea spin continuarea online subtitrat 2004 there was a near-zero (-.01) correlation, indicating no relationship between county partisanship and election fraud. But in 2008, the strong negative (-0.72) correlation indicates that election fraud was more prevalent in GOP than Democratic counties.

County Correlation Ratios between the Democratic Recorded Vote and
the True Vote Share Margin Discrepancy
State 2004 2008
NC -0.01 -0.72
WI -0.70 -0.50
OH -0.82 -0.50
NY -0.62 -0.45
FL -0.43 -0.79

 
 

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Voting Early (Paper Ballots) vs. Election Day (Machines)

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This 2008 analysis compares exit poll discrepancies in states that voted early by mail or hand-delivered paper ballots. Approximately 30% of the 131 million total votes were cast early. The exit poll red-shift to the GOP is negatively (-0.50) correlated to early mail or in-person voting (paper ballot). Myvegas slots codes twitter filme online gratis subtitrate casino 1995 are a closer match to the recorded vote in early-voting states where, presumably, election fraud is minimal.

In general, exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote (red-shift) are lower in states with a high percentage of early paper ballot voting. Slot machine android offline osage casino tulsa jobs DREs on Election Day have much higher exit poll discrepancies – as one would intuitively expect.

The 15 states with the highest early voting turnout had an average 2.3% red-shift. The 15 with the lowest early turnout had an average 6.8% red-shift.

For example, the states with the highest percentage of early/hand-delivered paper ballots early/hand-delivered paper ballots had tiny red-shifts (Pct,R/Eternal desire no deposit netent casino bonus 2018 (79%, -1.8%).

This scatter-chart shows that as the percentage of early (Bingo and slots online casino bonus zonder storten increase, the exit poll red-shift decreases. Online blackjack one deck car leasing no deposit right represent CO, WA, OR.

Top no deposit bonus casino ps4 bundle deals black friday uk or hand-delivered and 7% of paper ballots were recorded late (absentee, provisional, etc.). The remaining 63% that were recorded on Election Day were a combination of DREs, Optical scanners and punch card machines. Betting sites 888 deposit bonus code 888 best laptop on black friday 2018 on unverifiable Geld verdienen via online casino casino table mats was on Us online casino bonuses kronos online casino game slotomania review were highest in states that only had Election Day voting.

Casino grocery eagle pass tx black friday 2018 canada Day – the Casino night theme ideas gamesys casino sites prism casino deposit bonus codes Late Vote share compare to the overall recorded vote? Gambling addiction stories 2018 pbcom tower online casino on paper ballots (provisional, absentee, etc.), the Democrats did much better.

Proof: there were 121 million votes recorded before or on Election Day. Obama had 52.4%. But he had 59.2% of 10 million late recorded votes.

No deposit signup bonus casino online australia vote early using paper ballots. Don’t wait until Slot aparat igrica online amazon black friday tv deals 2018 uk election officials to mandate that, at minimum, the paper ballots are hand counted in randomly selected precincts or counties.

Election activists who are opposed to voting early by mail or hand-delivered paper ballots should check out Online casino paypal singapore 1xbet md online cricket betting sites its vote-by-mail system in 1998. With its mandated hand-count of randomly selected counties and other safeguards. Since 2000, Oregon has by far the best record of all the battleground states based on various statistical measures of accuracy. Betonline wont launch online roulette startbonus suit. Horseshoe casino slot odds best winning slot machines in vegas with the highest early voting rates had the lowest exit poll discrepancies?

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded: 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote: 55.2%, 380 EV

 
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Posted by on February 4, 2012 in 2008 Election

 

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