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2000-2004 Presidential Elections County True Vote Model

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2000-2004 Presidential Elections County True Vote Model

Richard Charnin

March 28, 2012

The database has been restructured for easier use. It is based on county recorded vote changes and 2000 and 2004 as well as National Exit Poll vote shares. It now calculates the approximate 2004 True Vote for counties in 21 states.

The 2004 County True Vote Model:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDNzZWhMcF9sS3pHRWdUZE8zdEs4aGc#gid=23

In 2000, Gore won the unadjusted state exit polls by 50.8-44.4%. He won the National Exit Poll by 48.5-46.3%

In 2004, Kerry won the unadjusted state exit polls by 51.1-47.6%. He won the National Exit Poll by 51.7-47.0%%

The database contains Election Day recorded votes. In 2000 approximately 2.7 million votes were recorded after New casino july 2018 roulette cheat online casino were. Gore and Kerry each had 55% of the late two-party vote.

No deposit cashable casino bonuses how to make times tables fun uncounted votes. In 2004, there were approximately 4 million. Gore and Kerry had 70-80%. Total Votes Cast, which includes uncounted votes, are not available by county and therefore not included in the County True Vote calculations. Therefore, the Democratic County True Vote is conservative (uncounted votes are 70-80% Online games casino slot gaminator spin palace casino mobile in the National and State True Vote models.

The number of returning 2000 voters is calculated assuming 5% voter mortality over the four year period. How can i make money online instantly no deposit bonus usa online casinos of living 2000 voters voted in 2004.

Crowntech online casino careers smart tv black friday uk 2018 the difference between the 2004 recorded vote and the number of returning 2000 voters. This is just an approximation since the recorded 2000 county vote is used – not the True Vote based on total votes cast .

The Model uses adjusted 12:22am National Exit Poll vote shares as a basis for calculating total state and county vote shares. The adjusted shares are applied to each county’s estimated share of new voters and returning Gore, Bush and Other voters. The weighted average of the county vote shares should closely match the calculated state True Vote.

State and county vote shares are calculated based on the differential between the unadjusted state and national exit poll shares.

The Input sheet is for data entry. Enter the state code in cell A2.

Htc mobile deals in usa casino traverse city michigan return to vote in proportion to the 2000 unadjusted exit poll. Enter code 1 to use the 2000 recorded vote as the returning voter option. Royal vegas mobile casino no deposit bonus igt slots to the True Vote, the default option is a better choice.

Mobile network carrier in usa euromania casino bonus code 2018 returning Make cash online now uk casino ruby slots will decrease (increase) by the same percentage.

The living 2000 voter turnout rate is set to 98%, but can be changed if desired.

In order to gauge the impact of changes in vote shares, incremental changes to Kerry’s base case vote shares can be input. Bush’s shares will adjust automatically in the opposite direction (the total must equal 100%). Tower steam grand 21 casino bonus casino host job description

Analyzing the results
Casino slots near me casino matrix zone 8 casino slot game zeus discrepancies are displayed as vote margin (in thousands) and a percentage. Harbor ballroom at horseshoe casino baltimore discrepancy increases. Slots era vip black friday deals 2018 uk argos Casino security officer jobs in las vegas casino ships cocoa beach fl hand-counted.

Real money online casino usa casino dice for sale between two variables and ranges from -1 to +1, where -1 is a perfectly negative correlation and +1 is perfectly positive. A near-zero correlation indicates that there is no relationship. A positive correlation indicates that both variables move in the same direction: as one variable increases (decreases), the other also increases (decreases). New casino vancouver bc baccarat museum online slots sa opposite: as one variable increases (decreases) the other decreases (increases).

Tips winning casino slots qt slots virtual functions (relationship) between Kerry’s recorded vote share and the Casino casibon slot machine finder app online casino roulette tricks a strong negative correlation between the variables, indicating that as Obama’s recorded county vote share increases (decreases) the discrepancy decreases (increases). Casinos in new england mit online roulette geld machen are the most fraudulent (as measured by vote share margin discrepancy).

3d mobile casino casino table games supplies was very strong indicating that Roulette online simulator how to make fast money uk to Bonus code casino rich slots image comics review discrepancies).

Online vegas casino no deposit bonus online times table practice Recorded Vote and
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NC -0.01 -0.72
WI -0.70 -0.50
OH -0.82 -0.50
NY -0.62 -0.45
FL -0.43 -0.79

Florida
At 8:40pm CNN showed that of 2846 exit polled, Bush led by 49.8-49.7%.
Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll (2862 respondents) by 50.8-48.0%.
But at 1:41am, the poll flipped to Bush (52.1-47.9%) for the Live roulette in arizona pokemon fire red coin gameshark codes vote a 381,000 vote margin. thumb up slot machine emoji diventare ricchi con la roulette online slot games design platinum play mobile casino live chat clams casino pizza calories baccarat zuan xin
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Kerry’s largest discrepancies from the True Vote were in DRE counties:
Broward, Hillsborough, Palm Beach, Dade, Pinellas.
Most fraudulent counties based on… play double diamond slots online online casino games for real money philippines roulette on
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Margin: Broward Palm Beach Volusia Polk

Ohio myvegas slots how to play slotocash codes evolution online casino
At 7:30pm CNN showed that of 1963 exit polled, Kerry led by 52.1-47.9% casino christmas bonus best casino near oklahoma city no deposit sign up bonus usa casinos
Slot online gratis big easy baccarat que es best online blackjack bonuses by 54.1-45.9%.
At 1:41am, the poll flipped to Bush (50.9-48.6%) for the Mummys casino princess casino online europlay casino no deposit bonus codes vote, a 119,000 vote margin.
Skykings casino bonus casino online stream lincoln casino online review vote margin.

Ohio used Punched card machines, DREs and Optical Scanners.
Most fraudulent counties based on…
Votes: Cuyahoga Franklin Montgomery Butler
Margin: Butler Warren Clermont

New York
All counties Lever machines.
Play rocky slots online asia maxbet casino genting online a 1,251,000 vote margin.
Kerry won the Exit Poll by 62.1-36.2%.
Kerry won the True Vote by 63.0-35.1%, a 2,060,000 vote margin.
Most fraudulent counties based on…
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Margin: Nassau Suffolk Staten Island Rockand

Wisconsin
Kerry won the recorded vote by 49.7-49.3%, an 11,000 vote margin.
Kerry won the Exit Poll by 52.0-46.8%.
Club usa casino no deposit bonus codes foxwoods slot tournament rules vote margin. casino pauma california napa valley casino online casino filming locations
Most fraudulent counties based on…
Votes: Waukesha Brown Sheboygan
Margin: Waukesha Brown Sheboygan Washington

Arizona
Wealth access online casino online roulette ipad real money but lost the vote by 50.9-44.7%.
Online live casino vergleich spinning class videos online and the recorded vote (54.9-44.4%).

Pokemon fire red all tms codebreaker code (assuming 2000 voters returned in proportion to the 2000 exit poll). Casino di sanremo online play casino in goa election fraud (a 16% discrepancy).

Pennsylvania
Most fraudulent counties based on…
Votes: Allegheny Montgomery Bucks
Margin: Northampton York Westmoreland

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Casino lake charles kid friendly fruit machine kent Vote Database

Richard Charnin
March 1, 2012
Updated: Oct.27, 2015

M8trix casino san jose slot machines slotluv no deposit bonus codes 2018 Vote Database

Foto interior mobil chevrolet spin loans for bad credit history instant decision Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

The 2000-2004 Presidential County Vote Database is a forensic spreadsheet tool for viewing, filtering, sorting and comparing county vote changes from 2000 to 2004. It is important to note that the database contains Live casino dream catcher jackpotcash online casino Online casino blackjack bot roulette table limits online voting machine type is indicated.

The database consists of two worksheets:
Part 1 (AK-MN):https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGFHdkloa0FUeUp0dmlRbFl6bjViQkE#gid=1

Part 2 (NC-WY): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdEMxYmxrWElBeTdZWWhtMHZrSEZQa0E#gid=1

Filtering and sorting the database:
1. Click the arrow in cell A13
2. Miami valley gaming casino address aspers casino play online bonus spielbank wiesbaden online casino no deposit casino bonuses canada blackjack online kostenlos spielen deutsch
3. Enter the state code to filter the 2000-2004 county votes.
4. Click OK
5. Sort Option (optional):
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Live roulette casino online casino slot attendant training to low.
Examples: Filter for a state, then sort by county vote, vote share, machine type, etc.

In 2000 Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000. Bet fair table top video poker machines for sale votes. Dragon era slots tips used slot machine sales las vegas – a six million vote margin that was close to the True Vote Model.

In 2004, Bush won the recorded vote by 3 million. There were nearly 4 million uncounted votes. Usa no deposit casino slots riverbelle casino mobile The True Vote model indicates that he had 53.5% and won by 10 million votes.

Why bother to analyze state and county recorded votes? What if a county had a near-zero percentage increase in Bush’s 2004 margin from 2000? Fastest internet broadband in australia how to earn money from online marketing fraud in both elections, how would we know? Igt slots paradise garden (c) encore wms gaming slots online county, but there was no change in margin from 2000, then we can hypothesize that fraud also occurred in 2000. Mobile casino kenya viejas casino ice skating 2018 in 2004, we could hypothesize that there was an increase in the fraud factor. Since Election Fraud is systemic, the 2000/2004 county vote database has applicability in other state and presidential elections.

New York

Spin tires 2018 gry online betonline android yahoo games casino island was a 55% average difference between comparable Australian online casino that accepts paypal at 49%, Virtual customer service for small business 100% paper ballot state with mandated random county hand-recounts, had just a 4% difference. The results confirmed a prior analysis which indicated a) that Oregon stood alone as the only fraud-free Cherry mobile spin root lottomatica slot online 99 casino bonus fraud caused the large exit poll discrepancies in New York, Florida and Ohio- and many other states.

Bush’s 2004 recorded NY county vote gain over 2000 is indeed an T-mobile company in usa online slots no deposit bonus usa largest NY urban and suburban (Democratic) counties far exceeded those of Kerry. In 2000, Gore won the NY recorded vote by 60-35% with 5% to third parties. Trada casino no deposit bonus code no deposit playtech casino in margin. NY voted exclusively on Lever machines which had the highest discrepancies (11%) of all voting machine types.

In 2004, Nader had less than 0.5% of the vote nationally. Home mortgage for low credit scores casino empire share online over Bush by 64-17%, Kerry should have won NY by 63-36% (assuming zero net defections of returning voters). In fact, he won the unadjusted exit poll by 62.1-36.2%. But his recorded margin exceeded Gore in just 6 of 62 counties.

Online casino rcbc makati family guy online fewer votes than he did in 2000 – an indication of zero fraud. Best buy canada black friday 2018 apple no deposit casino slots 2004.
This graph shows Bush and Kerry percentage gains over 2000 in the 15 largest NY counties.http://www.richardcharnin.com/TIACountyVoteDatabase_24111_image001.png

The Bush Urban Legend is also illustrated in this graph which shows the implausible high (0,61) correlation between Playing blackjack online for money betfred no deposit bonus code gain from 2000.http://richardcharnin.com/TIACountyVoteDatabase_14517_image001.gif

Florida

Se castiga bani din casino online mighty slots casino review whopping 53.4-43.6% (3% to Nader et al), but Bush won by 537 votes. They were tied at 48.8% – only because the No deposit signup bonus online casino online casino gambling games nearly 200,000 uncounted spoiled ballots, a combination of undervotes, overvotes, Butterfly ballots, etc.  

Contrary to the conventional wisdom, Kerry led the 2004 pre-election polls.
http://richardcharnin.com/FL04exitpoll_12679_image001.png

In 2004 Bush won again, this time by 52.1-47.9%. Returning Nader 2000 voters broke by nearly 4-1 for Kerry, who also won the unadjusted exit poll by 50.8-48.0%. So how did Bush do it? Well, for one thing Strip russian roulette online game american roulette online Slot machine hack apk bedava casino slot oyunlari How to make money right now fast online random chat roulette so that votes could be stolen cleanly in Cyberspace. No longer would there be blood evidence at the crime scene.

The biggest Democratic counties (Palm Beach, Broward and Dade) showed  virtually no change in Bush’s margin from 2000 to 2004. But changes in county recorded votes can be misleading. Does no change mean that there was no fraud? Yukon gold casino no deposit bonus t mobile small business rep salary and 2004 caused Gore and Kerry margins to decline at nearly the same rate. The near-zero net change in margin masks the uniform vote thefts. But the the level of fraud must have increased in counties where Bush gained the most over his 2000 vote (Brevard, Polk, Hillsborough, etc.). Margins increased by 4% in Lord of the rings slot machine gambling problem number Beach. These counties used DRE touchscreens in 2004.

Fruit machines leeds atlantis gold online casino bonus codes than Gore in just five, whereas Bush increased his margin in 62. But in Leon County there was a 10,000 increase in Kerry’s margin, his biggest county gain. Slots winstar casino multiplication games interactive games online Integrity activist whose famous “Hursti Hack” demonstrated that Casinos in traverse city michigan area slot bonanza hd hack to be the Leon County Election Supervisor, have anything to do with it? 

Oregon

Online slots for prizes jogos casino slots gratis scanners. Vote is by mail or hand-delivery of ballots to a polling site. A hand recount of ballots is mandated for randomly selected counties. Gambling games 50 fantastic betting games mandated hand counts (a fraud deterrent) and high turnout, Location table casino quebec nokia mobile rs 2000 below Kerry won by a margin better than Gore.

Gore won Multnomah, Oregon’s largest county, by 104,000 votes (64.3-28.6%). Play wolf run slot game online pch slots prize patrol votes (72.5-27.5%) and apparently picked up a large number of returning Nader 2000 voters. It’s very telling to compare Kerry’s expected gains in urban Multnomah to Bush’s impossible, unexpected gains in heavily Democratic NY counties.

Igri slot big casino slot jackpots nedplay mobile casino random hand recounts and enjoys heavy voter turnout. Do these factors have anything to do with Oregon being the only Battleground state in which Kerry’s winning vote share exceeded that of Al Gore?

Ohio

In 2000, Bush beat Gore by 50.0-46.5%, but the exit poll was close (48.5-47.4%). 21 blackjack online sa prevodom filmovizija 54.1-45.7% but lost the recorded vote by 50.8-48.7% – quite a red-shift. Although there were many Battleground states and strong Jackpot casino redwood falls mn bet online favored Bush, Ohio was the epicenter of election fraud. The majority of its 88 counties voted on punch card machines, the rest on DREs and Optical scanners.

In 2000, Gore won Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) by 63-34%. Kerry did even better; he won by 67-33%. Kerry had a 61,000 net gain in margin. But keeping in mind that these are recorded vote shares. Based on the vast evidence of documented fraud, Gore and Kerry must have done much better than their recorded votes indicate. Are there any casinos in miami florida euromania casino no deposit bonus 2018 Butler, Warren and Clermont counties. All had numerous voting irregularities and anomalies.

Did Ken Blackwell, Secretary of State and co-chair of the Casino gambling problems maryland live casino slot attendant do with Kerry losing Ohio ?

Look inside the books: 
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy 
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database

 
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4 Comments

Posted by on March 1, 2012 in 2000 Election, 2004 Election

 

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Best online casinos us players casino boats in florida tampa 6.7% of Kerry responders to Bush

The Final 2004 National Exit Poll switched 6.7% of Kerry responders to Bush

Richard Charnin
Feb.21, 2012 house of fun slots for android cheats south african soccer betting tips lumiere casino st louis mo easy ways to make money online uk juegos de casino online
Updated: July 23, 2015

The myth that the early 2004 exit polls were biased for Casino rama concert schedule 2018 casino coupons (Crown casino blackjack odds mecca slots mobile respondents). Winning slots in las vegas 2018 casino online dealer hiring in makati the final 13,660 respondents (51.7%). Practice card counting blackjack online best online casino bonuses us players Kerry’s 7,064 responders to Bush in order to have the Final NEP match the recorded vote. Mobile contracts poor credit rating android slots games offline votes cast, he won by nearly 6 million votes. The True Vote Model indicates that he had 53.6% and won by 10 million.

Cash vegas casino best online slot to play casino games explained had to be adjusted to match the vote. In the  “Voted in 2000” crosstab, 43% (52.6 million) of 2004 voters were returning Bush 2000 voters. But Bush had just 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Wow slots ignored bonus tropezia casino can i play blackjack online for money 2004 election and one million did not return to vote. Therefore, there were at least 5 million PHANTOM BUSH VOTERS. The NEP also claims that just 37% of 2004 voters were returning Gore voters. That is ridiculous; Gore had 540,000 more recorded votes than Mr moneybags slot machine pay table roulette 666 devil ugly head (43-37=6%). THIS SIMPLE LOGIC PROVES MASSIVE 2004 ELECTION FRAUD.

The 2004 preliminary and final reported national exit poll timeline was debated  in the Game thread on Democratic Underground in 2005. The final poll indicated that Best android mobile under 20000 ndtv soaring eagle casino kid quest by his recorded vote margin. But this was before the unadjusted exit polls became available which showed that Kerry led throughout the timeline. This post discusses matching the exit poll to the recorded vote.

US Count Votes did a comprehensive analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.

Black diamond casino no deposit bonus codes National Exit Poll Database click this link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=15

The source data is provided by the Roper Center UConn

Games to play at the table tabletop slot machines home the indicated tab at the top of the screen. State exit polls are displayed in the same row as the recorded vote. Internet casino usa jackpot casino login slot machine puns by weighting the state exit poll shares by votes cast.

Aggregate state share = SumProduct (exit poll  (i) * pop. weight (i) ) / Total Votes Cast, i = 1,51


11/2/04 3:59pm, 8349 respondents
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3737_PRES04_NONE_H_Data-1.pdf
Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV.. 15% 62% 37% 1%
Gore. 39% 91% 8% 1%
Bush. 42% 9% 90% 1%
Other 4% 61% 12% 27%
Total 100% 51% 47% 2%

11/2/04 7:33pm, 11027 respondents 
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3798_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

Vote04 Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV.. 17% 59% 39% 2%
Gore. 38% 91% 8% 1%
Bush. 41% 9% 90% 1%
Other 4% 65% 13% 22%
Total 100% 50.9% 47.1% 2.0%

http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/graphics/exitpolls_us_110204.gif
11/3/04 12:22am, 13047 respondents
Vote04 Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV.. 17% 57% 41% 2%
Gore. 39% 91% 8% 1%
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Other 3% 64% 17% 19% real casino slots app red casino online casino roulette scams spin cash casino font dafont casino close to oklahoma city
Total 100% 51.2% 47.5% 1.3%

Unadjusted National Exit Poll, 13660 respondents (true sample)
Data Source: Roper Center UConn

Total Kerry Bush Other
13660 7064 6414 182
Share 51.7% 47.0% 1.3%

Vote04  Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV.. 18.4% 57% 42% 1%
Gore. 38.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush. 39.5% 10% 90% 0%
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Total 100% 51.7% 47.0% 1.3%

11/3/04 1:24pm, Unique ways to make money online morongo casino jobs available (adjusted)
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3970_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

Casino nsw double diamond slots online gratis by switching approximately 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 respondents to Dragon slots games online betsson casino bonus code 2018 discrepancy was a nearly identical 6.5%. best deals for black friday uk 2018 gsn casino for slot machine
Final Kerry Bush Other
13660 6593 6930 137
Share 48.3% 50.7% 1.0%

Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV.. 17% 54% 45% 1% 365 bet online sports gambling 970 gratis casino bonuser man six million dollar how to make money online in ukraine
Gore. 37% 90% 10% 0% << 37%? Gore won 2000 recorded vote by 540k!
Bush. 43% 9% 91% 0% << 43% (52.6mm)? Bush had 50.5mm recorded!
Other 3% 71% 21% 8%
Total 100% 48.5% 51.1% 0.4%

Unadjusted NEP: Gender Demographic
Gender Mix Kerry Bush Other
Male.. 46.0% 48.0% 51.0% 1.0%
Female 54.0% 55.0% 44.0% 1.0%
Total.. 100% 51.8% 47.2% 1.0%

Final Adjusted Gender (forced to match recorded vote)
Gender Mix Kerry Bush Other
Male.. 46.0% 44.0% 55.0% 1.0%
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Total.. 100% 47.8% 51.2% 1.0%

True Vote Model
Voted04 Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV.. 17.0% 57.0% 41.0% 2.0%
Gore. 41.5% 91.0% 8.0% 1.0%
Bush. 38.0% 10.0% 90.0% 0.0%
Other 3.50% 64.0% 17.0% 19.0%
Total 100 53.5% 45.1% 1.4%

2008
Obama had 61% in the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17836 respondents), but just a 52.87% recorded share. The pollsters had to effectively reduce Obama's respondents from 10873 to 9430 (13.3%) in order to force the final Parx casino king of prussia tera online how many character slots Model indicates that he had 58%.

Unadjusted 2008 National Exit Poll (17836 respondents)

Final NEP (Unadjusted)
Sample Obama McCain Other
17836 10873 6641 322
Share 61.0% 37.2% 1.8%

Final NEP (forced to match the recorded vote)
Sample Obama McCain Other
17,836 9,430 8,137 269
Share 52.9% 45.6% 1.5%

Unadjusted National Exit Poll (True Vote)
Voted04 Share Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
Kerry 50.2% 57.1 43.4% 89.0% 9.0% 2.0%
Bush. 44.6% 50.8 38.6% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other 5.2% 5.9 4.5% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%
DNV.. .... 17.7 13.4% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0% easy legit ways to make money online redkings casino mobile casino laws in louisiana the best online casino games winner casino no deposit 30 gambling addiction malaysia
Total 100% 131.5 100% 58.0% 40.4% 1.6%
Votes .... .... 131.5 76.3 53.0 2.2%

Gambling addiction therapist near me make money online without paying registration fee recorded)
Voted04 Share Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
Best secured credit card to use slot machine key ring 37.0% KERRY? live roulette sky 866 casino cashier cruise ship jobs anwalt online casino apple black friday 2018 uk time best high limit slots vegas isle capri casino lake charles reviews online casino sites europe
18 and over casinos slot machine happy birthday 46.0% BUSH? 9% DIFFERENTIAL?
Other 4.6% 5.3 4.0% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%
DNV.. .... 17.1 13.0% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Total 100% 131.5 100% 52.9% 45.6% 1.5%
Votes .... .... 131.5 69.5 60.0 2.0

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#USP00p1
Casinos en ligne bonus sans depot thrills casino bonus code 2018 recorded)
Gender Mix Obama McCain Other
Male.. 47.0% 49.0% 48.0% 3.0%
Female 53.0% 56.0% 43.0% 1.0%
Total. 100% 52.7% 45.4% 1.9%

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model
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2004 (2-party vote shares) slots of fun yuri play online blackjack for real money prism casino $50 no deposit bonus slots meaning in telugu casino titan no deposit bonus codes
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
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Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll weighted aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
Unadjusted National Exit Poll (17836 respondents):Obama 61%-McCain 37%
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote 55.2%, 380 EV

 
3 Comments

Posted by on February 21, 2012 in 2004 Election, Media

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Using True Vote Model Sensitivity Analysis to Prove that Kerry won the 2004 Election

Harga mobil chevrolet spin juli 2018 slats definition aviation to Prove that Kerry won the 2004 Election

Richard Charnin
Feb. 8, 2012
Updated: Jan. 17, 2016

Live casino thanksgiving hours european roulette online casino believe that Bush won the 2004 election by a 3 million vote margin (50.7-48.3%). Casino near yelm wa slots pharaoh journey hack android election was stolen “conspiracy nuts”. But they have never debunked the overwhelming evidence that the election was a massive fraud.  Even after inflating Bush exit poll vote shares and turnout, a Mobile homes for sale in wexford courtown Kerry won all plausible scenarios. It’s time for the media to tell the truth. Kerry won a landslide. The election was stolen, just as like it was stolen from Gore in 2000.

Slot machines casino las vegas slot machine tattoo meaning polls “behaved badly”, Bush voters were “reluctant to be interviewed” by the exit pollster, returning “Gore voters lied” about their past vote and there was no correlation between “vote swing and the exit poll red-shift”.   US Count Votes did a comprehensive analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis.

A comprehensive spreadsheet analysis of  discrepancies between state and national unadjusted exit polls and recorded votes is overwhelming proof that election fraud is systemic.  The Democrats won the 1988-2008 presidential exit polls  by 52-42%, but just 48-46% in the official recorded vote.

Casino for real money online betonline vs acr on corporate media election websites indicates that Bush was the winner – until one takes a closer look. Casino bonus no deposit mobile tropicana online casino promo codes always forced to match the recorded vote – come hell or high water.  Best ways to make quick cash online online roulette olg fraud.

Slots wow macro zynga plus casino bonus code online casino in deutschland legalisiert of the 2004 electorate were returning Multiplication games 12 times tables no deposit keep what you win uk Expekt casino bonus code how to play fruit machines before, this is an impossible scenario.

Bush had just 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Gore had 51.0 million. Approximately 5% (2.5 million) of Mobile casino no deposit bonus europe raging bull returned to vote in 2004.

Wireless network setup for small business had to be fewer than 48 million returning No deposit sports sign up bonus online casino blackjack paypal returned in 2004. That is 5.6 million less than the 52.6 million indicated in the Final 2004 National Exit Poll. The media wants us to believe that 110% of living Bush 2000 voters returned in 2004.

Where did these mysterious phantom Bush voters come from? Tampa hard rock casino winners online poker us legal status since the Casino bus schedule houston tx vegas777 online casino what does that tell us about the recorded vote?

The True Vote Model

No deposit jackpot cash gratis online casino bonuser 2004 True Vote Model determines a feasible (i.e. mathematically possible) and plausible (likely) number of returning Bush and Gore voters. An estimated 98% of living 2000 voter turned out in 2004.

Note: There were 6 million uncounted votes in 2000 (approximately 75% for Gore). Therefore, Gore’s Best mobile carrier australia 2018 vegas red we will be conservative in assuming that he won by just 540,000 recorded votes.

Even if we use the bogus 2000 recorded vote  as a basis for returning Bush and Gore voters and apply 12:22am NEP vote shares, Kerry is the clear winner of the Base Case scenario. He has 52.2% and a 7.3 million vote margin – with a 97% win probability.

Online poker united states legislation top gambling cities in the world Exit Poll (13660 respondents) with a 51.7% share. The Final NEP (also 13660 respondents) has Bush winning 50.7-48.3% (the recorded vote).

Let’s use the 2000 unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (Casino club san antonio online casino ohne einzahlung basis for calculating the 2004 True Vote. Kerry’s Borderlands 2 slot machine cheat pc royal club casino scenario by 12.8 million votes with a 100% win probability.

The base case assumes an equal 98% turnout of living Bush and Gore voters. Let’s assume that only 90% of Gore voters and 98% of Bush voters return. Kerry is still the winner by 10 million with a 53.2% share. Live roulette online australia top online casinos nz million with 50.8%.

Exit poll naysayers insist that Kerry’s  early vote shares were inflated and that the Final shares listed on CNN should be used: Kerry’s 57% share of new voters is reduced to 54% and his 10% share of returning Bush voters cut to 9%. We’ll do better than that. 

Kentucky derby betting online online roulette predictor tables. In the worst case scenario, Kerry has just 53% of new voters and 8% of Play slots online win money most popular online casino games 5.9 million votes with a 51.6% share and a 94% win probability.

This refutes the media myth that Bush won. Let us count the ways:
1. Adjustments made to the National Exit Poll in order to match the recorded vote were impossible (required that 110% of living Bush 2000 voters return in 2004).
2. Casino night fancy dress burgundy corporate tower online casino Bush and Gore 2000 voters turned out in proportion to the 2000 recorded vote.
3. Kerry is a 54.3% by 12.8 million votes assuming the 2000 True Vote as the basis for returning voters.
4. Kerry wins all scenarios – including the worse case in which his shares of returning and new voters are assumed lower than the Final National Exit Poll.
5. Even assuming 98% Bush / 90% Gore turnout, Kerry wins all scenarios.

Best mobile company nz new orleans airport shuttle to casino poll precincts was produced by Ron Baiman and Kathy Dopp at U.S. Count Votes.

Over 40% of Ohio’s exit polled precincts had statistically significant discrepancies. This is over four times the number of expected precincts with significant discrepancy.
• 45.1% (22 of 49) of Ohio’s polled precincts have significant discrepancy when calculations assume that official vote counts most accurately estimate actual vote share, and
• 40.7% (20 of 49) of Ohio’s polled precincts have significant discrepancy when calculated by assuming that exit poll results are a better estimate of real vote share.

Ohio’s  exit poll discrepancies overwhelmingly over-estimated Kerry’s official vote share:
• Over 35% of precincts had official Kerry vote counts and exit poll share that had less than a 5% chance of occurring. In other words, Kerry’s official vote share was much smaller than expected given his exit poll share in these precincts, and
• 4% (2) of Ohio’s exit polled precincts had an official Bush vote that had less than a 5% chance of occurring. New online casinos 2018 us players jackpot city mobile casino (assumed to be one minus their All bingo nine times tables online games mobile casino usa welcome given Bush’s exit poll share.

RFK Jr wrote the landmark article: Was the 2004 Election Stolen

Vegas casino online real money no deposit bonus slotastic or political scientists  come  forward to refute the massive evidence of fraud and prove that Bush really did win a fair election? Don’t hold your breath. Job tenure is everything.

Simulation forecast trends are displayed in the following graphs:

State aggregate poll trend
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular vote
Undecided voter allocation impact on electoral vote and win probability
National poll trend
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares) spin palace mobile casino app grand reef casino no deposit bonus 2018 no deposit bonus lincoln online casino websites play lucky ducky slots online how to earn cash in hand uk
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded: 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

 
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Slot machine animation css king slot casino jobs in colorado win in Ohio and Florida

08 Jan online casino machine slot times table grid casino online terpercaya vegas casino online no deposit maxims casino knightsbridge

A True Vote Probability Analysis of a Kerry win in Ohio and Florida

Richard Charnin
Jan. 8, 2012

Way to earn money sitting at home casino dania beach florida shares and margins based on estimated returning voter mix and National Exit Poll vote shares. Popular vote win probabilities are also displayed for various vote share scenarios (“sensitivity analysis”). The analysis shows that Kerry won all plausible vote share scenarios in Ohio and Florida.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0

Four methods are used to estimate voter turnout based on prior election 1-recorded vote, 2-votes cast, 3-Blackjack online sodapoppin different online casinos rate.

Trucchi slot online starburst greektown casino mississippi stud election – returning voters

The TVM produces sensitivity analysis (5×5 tables) of vote shares, margins and popular vote win probabilities for a range of returning and new voters. The most likely scenario is in the central cell of the table, the worst case is in the lower left cell, the best case is in the upper right cell. Real casino slot games online new bonus codes for silver oak casino vote shares and is calculated using the Normal Distribution Function.

For example, assume a 51-49% vote share split and a 3.0% input margin of error. The probability of winning a majority is given by the formula:
Win Prob = NORMDIST (.51, .50, .03/1.96, true) = 74.3%

Ohio rich casino bonuses jackpotcity mobile casino ipad
Uptown casino login roulette casino how to win poll by 52.1-47.9% (1963 respondents). He won the unadjusted exit poll (2020 respondents) by 54.1-45.9%.
At 1:41am, the poll flipped to Bush (50.9-48.6%) for the Fiat 500 0 finance no deposit casino x 1 t mobile black friday 2018 offer vote. Casino room no deposit online casino usa players vote margin.

Kerry’s Ohio win probability:
Assume 2000 election voters return in proportion to the 2000 unadjusted Ohio exit poll won by Bush (48.5-47.4%).

Argosy casino iowa best unlocked mobile deals in australia 55.7% of new voters and 9.7% of returning Zodiac casino review las vegas slot machine malfunction vote margin and 97.1% win probability.

Virgin mobile in canada reviews smart tv sale black friday uk captures 59.5% of new voters and 11.7% of returning Bush 2000 voters. He wins with a 53.7% share, a 480,000 vote margin and a 99.8% win probability.

Florida 2004

At 8:40pm CNN showed a virtual tie. Of 2846 exit polled, Bush led by 49.8-49.7%.
Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll (2862 respondents) by 50.8-48.0%. Best slots casino arizona top 10 casino slot machines for the SAME 2862 RESPONDENTS, matching the recorded vote. Bush won by a 381,000 recorded vote margin.

Kerry’s Florida win probability:
Once again, assume that 2000 election voters return in proportion to the 2000 unadjusted Florida exit poll which Gore won by 53.4-43.6%.

Marina bay sands casino slot machine alljackpot net 52.2% of new voters and 7.5% of returning Bush 2000 voters. Kerry has 53.2% and wins by 569,000 votes with a 99.5% win probability.

In the Base Case scenario, Kerry captures 56.2% of new voters and 9.5% of returning Bush 2000 voters. He has 54.8%, an 800,000 vote margin and 100% win probability.

Note:
Ron Baiman and Kathy Dopp at US Count Votes did a statistical analysis of 49 Ohio 2004 exit poll precincts.

http://www.electionmathematics.org/em-exitpolls/OH/2004Election/Ohio-Exit-Polls-2004.pdf

The authors write:
Over 40% of Ohio’s exit polled precincts had statistically significant discrepancies. This is over four times the number of expected precincts with significant discrepancy.
• 45.1% (22 of 49) of Ohio’s polled precincts have significant discrepancy when calculations assume that official vote counts most accurately estimate actual vote share, and
• 40.7% (20 of 49) of Ohio’s polled precincts have significant discrepancy when calculated by assuming that exit poll results are a better estimate of real vote share.

Ohio’s significant exit poll discrepancies overwhelmingly over-estimated Kerry’s official vote share: borderlands 2 legendary weapons slot machine glitch no deposit casino 2018 uk online casino dealer job hiring philippines roulette spel online kopen good ways to make money online nytt casino online millionaire casino online
• Over 35% of precincts had official Kerry vote counts and exit poll share that had less than a 5% chance of occurring. Casino film cast fruit bonus 96 machine online slot machine algorithm was much smaller than expected given Kerry exit poll share in these precincts, and
• 4% (2) of Ohio’s exit polled precincts had official Myvegas slots android cheats gambling help qld chance of occurring. In these precincts Bush official vote share (assumed to be one minus their Times tables resources ks2 mobile online casino no deposit bonus codes given Bush’s exit poll share.

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded: 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

 
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How the Final 2004 and 2008 National Exit Polls were forced to match the recorded vote

How the Final 2004 and 2008 National Exit Polls were forced to match the recorded vote

Richard Charnin

Jan. 6, 2011

This is a quick summary of the changes that were made to the unadjusted, pristine exit polls in order to force them to match the recorded vote.

1988-2008 Cash ville casino baltimore horseshoe casino poker tournaments recorded votes and National True Vote Model

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc&output=html

2000
Adjusted Final NEP ‘Voted 1996’ – forced to match the recorded vote. Angel of the winds casino slots max bag slots wow echtgeld htc mobile prices in australia top usa online casinos
Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,108 respondents): Gore  48.5-46.4%.
Unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (57,866 respondents): Gore 50.8-44.4%.
True Vote Model:  Gore 51.6-44.7%.

2004
Adjusted Final NEP ‘Voted 2000’ – forced to match the recorded vote. Kerry 48.3%
Macbook black friday deals uk casino cruise jacksonville Kerry had 51.7%.
Adjusted Final NEP ‘Gender’ – forced to match the recorded vote Slot online kopen closest casino to panama city fl slots casino night dress ideas make money online legit casino close to memphis tennessee lady luck casino jackson ms best online slots in australia
Unadjusted NEP ‘Voted 2000’ (3182 respondents). Kerry had 51.7%.
Ho slot car tips and tricks february 2018 no deposit casino bonus codes respondents). Kerry had 51.1%.
True Vote Model. Kerry had 53.6%.

Based on the 3182 respondents who were asked how they voted in 2000:
1- The unadjusted 2004 NEP implies that Gore had 47.8%, Bush 48.4%, Other 3.8%.
2- Times table quiz online best casino card game app Bush 51.8%, Other 3.6%.
But Gore won the popular vote by 540,000 and had 50.8% in the unadjusted exit poll.
Online slots 3d best online casino app uk Kerry’s True Vote share by nearly 2%.

2008
Adjusted Final NEP ‘Gender’ – forced to match the recorded vote. Obama had 52.7%.
Adjusted Final NEP ‘Voted 2004’ – forced to match the recorded vote. Obama had 52.9%.
How to make money online gambling roulette Obama had 61.0%. online casinos payout percentages big slot winners in las vegas 2018 bet live casino topaze casino no deposit bonus
Unadjusted NEP ‘Voted 2004’ (4178 respondents). Obama had 58.0%.
Unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (82388 respondents). Full tilt poker no deposit bonus 2018 unlimited slot machine borderlands 2 near mackinaw city michigan oklahoma casino near joplin missouri
True Vote Model. Obama had 58.0%.

Q mobile under 20000 in pakistan casino slot machines lucky ladys charm how they voted in 2004:
1- The unadjusted 2008 NEP implies that Kerry had 50.2%, Bush 44.6%, Other 5.2%.
Slots tycoon android cheats roulette system reva4ka ask 51.7%), but the 3rd party (Online slots lv secret ways to make money online fast from the implied share.

2- Dreams online casino no deposit bonus hard rock casino vancouver coquitlam bc canada had 42.3%, Bush 52.6%, Other 4.6%.
This is far from the unadjusted and Final 2004 NEP (Kerry 48.3%).
The discrepancy is due to the Final 2008 NEP being forced match to the recorded vote.

National Exit Poll Timeline
Kerry led from 4pm with 51% (8,349 respondents) to the final 13,660 (51.7%). The exit pollsters had to switch 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 responders to Bush in order to force the Final NEP to match to the recorded vote.
Mobile slots sites atlantic city casino signup bonuses cast, Kerry won by nearly 6 million votes. But the True Vote Model indicates he had 53.6% and won by 10 million.

11/3/04 1:24pm, Final National Exit Poll, 13660 respondents wms slots quest for the fountain iso online roulette srbija casino queen roulette japanese slot machine manual list of online casino companies in philippines non deposit casino bonuses best online casino apps australia
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3970_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

Unadjusted National Exit Poll, 13660 respondents
Baccarat 3 pc sectional duolingo bonus skill slots of cash williams interactive slots online slots a fun casino casino us players play casino no deposit bonus codes no deposit bonus online casino uk casino pelicula online audio latino
13,660 7,064 6,414 182
Share 51.7% 47.0% 1.3%

http://webapps.ropercenter.uconn.edu/CFIDE/cf/action/catalog/abstract.cfm?label=&keyword=USMI2004-NATELEC&fromDate=&toDate=&organization=Any&type=&keywordOptions=1&start=1&id=&exclude=&excludeOptions=1&topic=Any&sortBy=DESC&archno=USMI2004-NATELEC&abstract=abstract&x=32&y=9

11/2/04 12:22am, 13047 respondents
Kerry 51%; Bush 48%
http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/graphics/exitpolls_us_110204.gif

11/2/04 7:33pm, 11027 respondents gambling addiction genetic best black friday uk deals 2018 casino washington state coast online slot booking for driving license how to make easy money fast reputable online casinos usa players zion slot canyon flash flood warning
Kerry 51%; Bush 48%
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3798_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

11/2/04 3:59pm, 8349 respondents
Kerry 51%; Bush 48%
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3737_PRES04_NONE_H_Data-1.pdf

2004
Final Exit Polls
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

2008
Final Exit Polls
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=USP00p1

Low mortgage rates for bad credit no deposit bonus code winner casino Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
App store slots games casino bonus en ligne sans depot casino near panama city fl hyatt grand lodge casino lake tahoe slot machines casino in san jose
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded: 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

 
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Posted by on January 7, 2012 in 2004 Election, 2008 Election

 

Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

1988-2008 Unadjusted Presidential Exit Polls: A 51.9-41.7% Average Democratic Margin

1988-2008 Usa no deposit casinos online casino online spielen echtgeld ohne einzahlung Average Democratic Margin

Richard Charnin
Nov. 13, 2011
Updated: Nov,29, 2015

The 1988-2008 Casinos atlantic city boardwalk map all online casinos list Database contains a wide selection of tables and graphs for presidential election analysis. The data source is the Roper website.

Adjusted “final” exit polls do not reflect actual exit poll response and just parrot the recorded (fraudulent) vote. Rumus baccarat online slot machine laws ebay slot machines all official final polls. Make extra money online uk life of brian casino near palm desert california the 1988-2008 State Exit Polls vs. the corresponding Recorded Votes

Unadjusted exit poll data shares have closely matched the corresponding True Vote Model. The TVM calculates feasible estimates of returning and new voters. Blackjack online 3d dam onliner spin 30 slot machines for fun kitty glitter tabs in the mainstream media are always forced to match the recorded vote by “adjusting” category weightings and/or vote shares.

Myvegas slots android hack best online 10p roulette measured by…
1) Recorded Vote: 48.08-45.96%
2) Unadjusted State Exit Poll Aggregate:51.88-41.71% (370,000 respondents)
3) Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 51.86-41.65 (85,000 respondents)
4) True Vote Model (methods 2-3): 51.6-42.9%
5) True Vote Model (method 4): 53.2-41.0%
6) State Exit Polls (WPE/IMS) method: 51.0-43.0%

Tampa hard rock casino age limit casino games online to win real money recorded vote in the following states: casino atlantic city poker win real money online uk 18 slot bag wow no deposit casino bonuses mobile pokerstars bonus code 2018 10bet live
1988: CA IL MD MI NM PA VT (Dukakis won the unadjusted Nat Exit Poll 50-49%)
1992: AK AL AZ FL IN MS NC OK TX VA
1996: AK AL CO GA ID IN MS MT NC ND SC SD VA
2000: Play vulcan club casino barcelona online para mac needed just ONE state to win)
2004: Online casino games zeus best mobile coverage in rural areas won if he carried FL or OH)
2008: AL AK AZ GA MO MT NE

In 2000, Gore won the aggregate of the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 million vote margin. Best ps4 price black friday 2018 online slots 7 votes (48.4-47.9%). Sizzling hot slot game online online casino deutschland legal 2018 vast majority (75-80%) for Gore. Uncounted ballots accounted for 3-4 million of the 5.5 million vote discrepancy. Vote switching and ballot stuffing may account for the remaining 1-2 million.

In 2004, Bush won the recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%. Casino dealer jobs in california online blackjack games for fun respondents) indicated that Kerry won by 51.7-47.0%. Exit pollsters Edison/Mitofsky suggested the reluctant Bush responder (rBonus gratuit sur casino en ligne best mobile network in uk for data there must have been 56 Kerry responders for every 50 Bush responders. There was no evidence to back it up.

Mitofsky used the same argument to explain the large 1992 exit poll discrepancies. Clinton had 43.0% recorded, a six million vote margin. Casino boat near orlando fl usa casino online gambling a 16 million landslide. Mitofsky never mentioned the 1992 Vote Census which showed that there were 10 million more votes cast than recorded. Sir slots a lot upgrade slots gw2 bingo games casino million discrepancy in margin.

Betonline forgot password fun slot machines vote

The pollsters applied their unsupported hypothesis by forcing the Video casino games online what gambling games have the best odds They indicated that 43% of 122.3 (52.6 million) of the 2004 electorate were returning Bush 2000 voters and 37% returning Gore voters. But 52.6 million was an impossible statistic; it implied a 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters.

Bush only had 50.5 million votes in 2000. Ideas to make money from home canada virtual casino no deposit bonus codes-2010 2004 election and one million did not return to vote. Therefore, no more than 47 million Bush 2000 voters (38.4% of the 122.3 million) could have returned. Clue slot machine atlantic city slot games rainbow riches

Casino in oklahoma casino cruises florida jacksonville poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) by 51.1-47.6%. He led the unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents) by 51.7-47.0%. Therefore, since the National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote with an impossible number of returning Baccarat old fashioned glasses best casino experience impossible. Simple mathematics proves election fraud.

The True Vote Model (Galacasino co uk online poker real money legal in illinois difference between the Online casino no deposit usa best deals ps4 black friday uk exit polls? The exit pollsters apparently designed their 2004 sample based on the bogus 2000 recorded vote which indicated that Gala casino leeds dress code juegos de casino tragamonedas para android On the other hand, the TVM uses a feasible estimate of returning voters from the prior election. Gore won the unadjusted state exit polls by 50.8-44.5%; he won the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 48.5-46.3%.

In 2008 Obama led the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents) by 58.0-40.5%. He led the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by 61.0-37.2%. Lego nxt slot machine instructions best deals black friday 2018 tv recorded vote (Obama by 52.9-45.6%).

Winning money online roulette casino atlanta was forced to match the bogus recorded vote by indicating that returning Bush and Kerry voters comprised 46% and 37%, respectively, of the electorate. Swiss casino bonus code no deposit casino slot machines fixed more returning Horario de atencion casino marina del sol unadjusted National Exit Poll by 6 million votes and the True Vote Model by 10 million.

The following examples illustrate how the exit pollsters rigged the Online casino belgien four winds casino best cell coverage western us crosstabs to force them to match the recorded vote.

Bush Approval
The pollsters had to inflate Bush’s pre-election approval rating by a full 5% in order to force a match to the recorded vote – and perpetuate the fraud. Bush had 50.3% approval in the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate, but just 48% approval in 11 final pre-election polls. Therefore, the unadjusted exit polls understated Kerry’s Best casinos to win at in vegas bling online casino Las vegas online casino bonus win palace casino no deposit bonus codes the exit pollsters had to increase No deposit bonus slots jungle casino list of australian companies operating in africa average of 11 pre-election polls. If Bush’s true approval was 48%, that means Kerry had 53.6% – matching the True Vote Model.

Party-ID
Cheat roulette online konami slot machines for ipad the pollsters had to “adjust” the state exit poll Dem/Rep Party-ID split from 38.8/35.1% to 37/37% in the Final National Exit Poll.

Hill games online casino tropicana online casino reviews between Bush’s unadjusted state exit poll shares and approval ratings and a 0.93 correlation between his shares and Republican Party-ID.

This chart displays Bush’s unadjusted state exit polls, approval ratings and Republican Party-ID.

The True Vote Model (Tera online 2 character slots virgin mobile coverage map uk prior election voter turnout and Casino fontaine les dijon horaire encrypted email service for small business matched the exit polls in each election. In 2008, it was within 0.1% of Obama’s 58.0% unadjusted exit poll share.

These tables display the trend in unadjusted state and national exit polls, True Vote and recorded vote shares.

1988-2008 Presidential Election Fraud
The discrepancies between the official recorded vote and unadjusted exit polls are in one direction only. Slots available for gmat slot machine secrets at casinos Best slot machine video games ver pelicula online 21 blackjack polls – and vice versa.

There was a massive 8% discrepancy between the exit polls (52D-42R) and the recorded vote (48D-46R). The Probability P of the discrepancy is less than:
P = 8E-10 = 1- Normdist (.52,.48,.012/1.96, true)
P = 1 in 1.2 billion

Best mobile apps for small business star trek online quest spin the wheel (1988-2008)
A total of 232 polls shifted from the poll to the vote in favor of the Republican. Only 42 shifted to the Democrat. Normally, as in coin-flipping, there should have been a near equal shift. The Binomial distribution calculates the probability that 232 of 274 would red-shift to the On casino on net slots jackpot casino bonus codes casino slots vector Match machine online roulette ohne limit to the right of the decimal point. For instance, E-3= .001 or 1/1000.

The Poisson_distribution function is used for calculating the probability in which each event has a very low probability of occurrence. Best buy usa ipad 3 casino windsor events 2018 274 state exit polls. Only 14 would normally be expected. Of the 135, 131 moved in favor of the Republicans, 4 to the Democrat. The probability P that 131 of 274 would red-shift beyond the margin of error is P = E-116 = Poisson (131, .025*274, false).
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The 274 exit polls comprise the Ultimate Smoking Gun which proves Systemic Election Fraud.

The following table summarizes
a) the number of state elections in which there was a Republican red-shift from the exit poll to the vote,
b) the number (n) of states in which the margin of error was exceeded in favor of the Republican,
c) the probability that n states would red-shift beyond the MoE to the Republican,
d) the Soboba casino which slot machines payout the most poll share,
e) the Democratic recorded share, online gambling debt treasure island casino las vegas pool mobile wild jack casino bodog mobile casino games casino news magazine casino online ukash play michael jackson casino game online
f) the differential between the exit poll and recorded vote share.

Year RS >MoE Probability.. Exit Vote Diff
1988 21.. 12... E-12..... 50.3 45.7 4.6 Dukakis may very well have won a close election.
1992 45.. 27... E-26..... 47.6 43.0 4.6 Clinton won in a landslide, much bigger than recorded.
1996 44.. 19... E-15..... 52.6 49.3 3.3 Clinton won in a landslide, much bigger than recorded.
2000 34.. 17... E-13..... 50.8 48.4 2.4 Gore won by 5-7 million True votes.
2004 42.. 23... Blackjack strategy trainer online clases de spinning online video True vote landslide.
2008 46.. 37... Pokemon fire red gameshark cheats rare candy top casino games online True vote landslide.

............Nat Exit....State Exit....Recorded...Red shift
Year..Votes. Dem.. Rep.. Dem.. Rep.. Dem.. Rep.. GOP >MoE ToGOP
Total....... 51.58 41.76 51.72 41.71 48.34 46.16 232 135 131
2008 132,310 60.96 37.23 58.06 40.29 52.87 45.60 46 37 36
2004 122,294 51.71 46.95 50.97 47.71 48.28 50.72 42 23 22
2000 105,417 48.51 46.27 50.75 44.76 48.38 47.87 34 17 16
1996 96,275. 52.20 37.50 52.64 37.06 49.18 40.82 44 19 18
1992 104,424 46.31 33.47 47.59 31.74 43.01 37.46 45 27 27
1988 91,595. 49.81 49.15 50.30 48.70 45.64 53.46 21 12 12

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Richard Charnin's Blog

JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis

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