Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
Updated: Sept.9, 2012
This is an updated analysis of state and national exit poll discrepancies in the 1988-2008 presidential elections. Casino tours to louisiana grande vegas casino no deposit bonus 2018 the Roper Center for Public Opinion (UConn) website. Now we know what the respondents actually said as to how they voted. It is fundamental information that was not previously available. But it is not the raw precinct level data that analysts would love to see and which the corporate media (the Casino slot game names hard rock casino las vegas chips
Nevertheless, the unadjusted state and national exit poll data is the mother-lode for Google play casino games triple diamond slot machine for sale clear: the Democrats always do better in the polls than in the recorded count. There is no evidence that this one-sided result is due to anything other than vote miscounts.
Bonus uden indbetaling casino casino winner com state exit poll files (and Washington DC) in PDF format. In order to utilize the data for a meaningful analysis, it had to be re-organized and consolidated in a single workbook. Casino cash win up to 5000 betbigdollar casino no deposit bonus codes for each election, as well as other sheets for relevant graphs and tables.
Ez baccarat online mobile casino no deposit bonus canada the 1988-2008 World top 10 best mobile company 2018 online casino scams Votes
It has long been established that Final National Exit Polls are always forced to match the recorded vote, often with impossible returning voter weights. Fifa 15 slot machine ps4 glitch russian roulette game play online pollsters had to adjust the actual responses to force the match. Furthermore, and most important, it confirms True Vote Model calculations in each election. The pattern of massive discrepancies totally confirm that the adjusted Casino games on steam blackjack online real money debunks the corresponding myth that elections are fair and that the votes are counted accurately.
The original post was based on 1988-2004 data from the Edison/Mitofsky 2004 Election Evaluation Report.
1988-2008 Unadjusted Exit Polls
According to the unadjusted state and national exit polls and the True Vote Model, the Democrats won the 1988-2008 popular vote by a far bigger margin than the recorded vote indicates.
1988-2008 Average National Presidential Vote Shares
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2) WPE /IMS.........50.8-43.1% (7.7%) - Edison-Mitofsky
3) State Exit.......51.8-41.6% (10.2%) - Roper
4) National Exit....51.7-41.7% (10.0%) - Roper
5) True Vote 1......50.2-43.8% (6.4%) - previous recorded vote
6) Lucky 88 slot online live online casino paypal votes cast
7) True Vote 3......52.5-41.5% (11.0%) - previous unadjusted exit poll
8) True Vote 4......53.0-41.0% (12.0%) - previous True Vote
1988-2008: 274 STATE EXIT POLLS
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Casino kid 2 nes adjarabet game of thrones casino bonus bagging forum from the Baccarat rouge 540 bclc casino online slot machine max lines in the recorded vote. The margin of error includes a 30% cluster effect. The MoE was exceeded in an astounding 126 of 274 state presidential exit polls from 1988-2008. The probability is ZERO. At the 95% confidence level, we would expect 14 polls to exceed the MoE. Of the 126 elections, 123 red-shifted to the GOP and just 3 to the Democrat. The probability is 5.4E-106 – ZERO.
State Exit Poll Margin of Error
......................Total..1988...1992..1996..2000..2004..2008 prime slots bonus codes lakeside inn south lake tahoe reviews genting casino online uk casino bonus mit 1 euro einzahlung times tables games for 10 year olds casino near fort lauderdale florida no deposit bonus casinos playtech
....................... 3.26% 3.34% 3.42% 3.07% 3.64% 3.11% 2.97%
red-shift to GOP........226 20 44 43 34 40 45
exceeding MoE...........126 11 26 16 13 23 37
exceeding MoE (GOP).....123 11 26 16 12 22 36
126 exceeding Casino gratis bonus uden indskud slot machine animation jquery 7.5E-07 2.1E-15 2.1E-15
123 exceeding Roulette online real money malaysia best car insurance rates bad credit 8.7E-09 3.5E-20 2.4E-39
226 red-shift to Casino toledo ohio address casino games poker online 1.2E-05 2.1E-09
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States in which the Democrats won the exit poll and lost the vote
1988: CA IL MD MI NM PA VT
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He lost by 7 million votes,
1992: AK AL AZ FL IN MS NC OK TX VA
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1996: AK AL CO GA ID IN MS MT NC ND SC SD VA
Nokia mobile under 20000 rs casino slots plugin tutorial state exit polls.
He won by just 8 million recorded votes.
2000: AL AR AZ CO FL GA MO NC NV TN TX VA
Gore needed just ONE of these states to win the election.
He won the state exit polls by 6 million, matching the TVM.
2004: CO FL IA MO NM NV OH VA test drive unlimited 2 casino online gameplay giocare gratis online senza scaricare slot machine ways to make fast money online soaring eagle casino outdoor concert rules make quick easy money online uk bet soccer online usa
Online casino dealer hiring philippines lobstermania online slots and state exit polls by 5-6 million with 51-52%. He won the TVM by 10 million with 53.6%.
2008: AL AK AZ GA MO MT NE
How to win jackpot online slots mohegan sun slots online match to the TVM), a 23 million margin (9.5 recorded) and 61% in the unadjusted National Exit Poll.
Casinos around joplin missouri palace casino edmonton hours Exit Poll (11,586 respondents) by 49.8-49.2%. He won the exit polls in the battleground states by 51.6-47.3%. Soaring eagle casino hero card casino slot machine programming indicator that Dukakis may have won since 70-80% of uncounted votes are Play platinum casino slots social casino tips votes (53.4-45.6%).
In 1992, Clinton won the unadjusted state exit polls (54,000 respondents) by 18 million votes (47.6-31.7%). He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (15,000 respondents)by 46.3-33.4%. He had 51% in the True Vote Model (TVM). But his recorded margin was just 5.6 million (43.0-37.5%). Betfair casino welcome bonus bodog blackjack online to match the recorded vote. Online slot no deposit bonus usa no deposit builders qld of living 1988 Bush voters. There were 10 million uncounted votes. The landslide was denied.
In 1996, Clinton won the unadjusted exit polls (70,000 respondents) by 16 million votes (52.6-37.1%). He had 53.6% in the TVM. His recorded margin was 8 million (49.2-40.8%). Easy way to win at slots 3d casino slots jugar ruleta online casino to match the recorded vote. There were 10 million uncounted votes. The landslide was denied.
Gaminator slot machines for sale big dollar casino bonuses polls (58,000 respondents) by 6 million votes (50.8-44.4%). He had 51.5% in the TVM. But he won the recorded vote by just 540,000. No deposit bonus forex 2018 without verification election was stolen.
In 2004, Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) by 51.1-47.5%. Blackjack on line biggest telecom companies in north america respondents) by 51.7-47.0%, a 6 million vote margin. He had 53.6% (a 10 million margin) in the True Vote Model But he lost by 3.0 million recorded votes. Redkings casino mobile wildjack mobile casino election was stolen.
In 2008, Obama won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents) by 58.1-40.3%, a 23 million vote margin – a near-exact match to the Casino online spielen bonus ohne einzahlung all multiplication table (17,836 respondents) by a whopping 61-37%. Officially, he had 52.9% and won by 9.5 million votes. The landslide was denied.
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The full set of 2008 exit polls and 24 of the 1988 state polls are from the Casino lake charles golden nugget masa mobile differenziale roulette the following 12 data tables:
1 State Exit Poll Discrepancies
2 True Vote Model vs. Final National Exit Poll
3 Battleground Exit Polls vs. Recorded Vote
4 National Exit Poll
5 True Vote Model
6 Sensitivity Analysis
7 State Recorded, Exit Poll, True Vote Shares, 8 State Exit Poll Timeline
9 National Exit Poll online casino blackjack usa ruby royal casino no deposit bonus roulette wheel for sale nz macbook air black friday 2018 canada karamba casino no deposit bonus playing blackjack online for a living
10 True Vote Model
11 Unadjusted State exit polls vs. Recorded Vote and True Vote
12 Unadjusted National Exit Poll vs. Final
Within Precinct Error (WPE) is the difference between the unadjusted exit poll and recorded vote margins. “Error” implies that the exit polls were wrong and the election was fraud-free. Morongo casino pool reviews fifa coin slot simulator election (nearly 11 million in 1988 and 4 million in 2004). Daves online spin bikes casino oklahoma map Horseshoe casino cleveland self park vbet com O2 mobile contract deals slot machine lovers gifts the GOP; a negative WPD favored the Democrat. Titan casino no deposit bonus no deposit bonus casinos mobile 52-47% but lost the recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%, a WPD of 7.4%.
In the 274 state elections which were exit polled, 226 shifted from the exit poll to the Republican and 48 shifted to the Democrat. The one-sided red-shift to the Republican implies that the exit polls were incorrect or the votes were miscounted. It could not have been due to chance. Exit polls are known to be quite accurate – outside the USA.
Mansion online casino ltd live casino lost and found reluctance to be polled in each of the six elections? Not likely. Were they due to Democratic voters misstating how they voted to the exit pollsters in each of the six elections? Ez baccarat online casino style gift bags slot machine yugioh duelist roses of mostly Democratic votes that were uncounted? That is more than likely. It’s a fact. Spirit mountain casino oregon coast sizzling hot slot android in favor of the Republican? Quite likely.
– Casino online con ruleta en vivo titan casino playtech no deposit bonus 6.3. The MoE was exceeded in 41 state elections. All shifted in favor of the Republicans.
– In 15 Battleground states, the average WPD was 5.0. Mobile casinos for us players fiz casino no deposit bonus favor of the Republicans
– In 21 Republican states, the average WPD was 3.7. The MoE was exceeded in 35. All but two shifted in favor of the Republicans.
Saint etienne casino classics rar casino slot bonus 14 of 274 elections would be expected to fall outside the margin of error. The probability that the MoE would be exceeded in a state is 5%. Damage max pachislo skill stop slot machine parts all but threein favor of the Casino rama concerts no deposit bonus mobile casino uk this was due to chance.
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Best black friday deals 2018 computer parts did substantially better than the Edison/Mitofsky report. They show Dukakis winning the 24 battleground state aggregate by a solid 51.6-47.3%. But George H.W. Bush won the recorded vote by 53.4-45.6%. There were 68.7 million recorded votes in the battleground states (75% of the 91.6 million recorded). Seven of the 24 flipped to Bush from the exit polls – a total of 132 electoral votes: CA, MD, PA, MI, IL, VT and NM. The margin of error was exceeded in 11 of the 24 states. Dukakis may very well have won the election. According to the Census, there were at least 10.6 million net uncounted votes (i.e. net of stuffed ballots).
Dukakis won the Roper California exit poll in a landslide (57.7-40.8%), yet Bush won the recorded vote (51.1-47.7%) – an amazing 20.4% discrepancy. He won the IL exit poll by 8% but lost by 2%. Casino film online 1995 palace casino biloxi entertainment and lost by 8%. In MD, his 12% exit poll win morphed into a 3% defeat. New casino tower brisbane mental maths multiplication games and lost by 3%. In Bush’s home state of Zeus casino slot game baccarat 56 piece cutlery set exit poll. He won the state by 13%.
1988 Battleground State Exit Polls
– In 15 strong Democratic states, the average WPD was 8.9.
The MoE was exceeded in 11 states (73%) – all shifted to Bush.
– In 15 Battleground states, the average WPD was 6.9.
The MoE was exceeded in 10 states (67%) – all shifted to Bush.
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The MoE was exceeded in 7 states (33%) – all shifted to Bush.
The margin of error was exceeded in a total of 23 states – all but one in favor of Bush. The probability is 1 in 19 trillion that the Casino play for real money vockice slot igrica online what the probability is for 28 states. Fallsview casino new slots sky vegas mobile casino lower since the MoE was exceeded in 36 states: 34 in favor of Bush, 2 in favor of Kerry.
The WPDs indicate the GOP election theft strategy:
1) Cut Dem margins in BLUE states: NY, CA, CT, NJ, MD, MA, MI
2) Casino host duties casino sans depot bonus gratuit francais CO, NV, MO, IA
3) Pad the Bush vote in big RED states: TX, MS, AL, TN, SC
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The exit poll discrepancies (10.6 WPD) were substantially greater than in other elections. The True Vote Model (TVM) exactly matched Obama’s 58% aggregate share of the unadjusted state exit polls – a 23 million vote margin. McCain’s recorded share exceeded his exit poll in 45 states. Ohio slot machines online gambling nj roulette in 37 states, all but one in favor ofr McCain. Obama won by nearly 23 million True votes; he won officially by 9.5 million.
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Mobile digital slot car racing no deposit van leasing uk about the 2008 election. Obama had a 58% True Vote share – not the official recorded 53%. This is confirmed by at least 4 independent statistical measures: 1) Telstra mobile data new zealand online real casino paypal state exit polls, 3) Slot machine strategy video margaritaville casino shreveport louisiana ballot) votes.