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2017 Alabama True Vote: 75% turnout of Clinton voters but only 45% of Trump voters?

14 Dec

Richard Charnin
Dec.14, 2017

My Books
Trump Won the True Vote revel casino atlantic city news slot machines 32 red casino online ru casino slots apps for ipad nuovi casino con bonus senza deposito online slot deals
77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
804c gambling machine jackpotter & credit signaler Votes and the National Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
LINKS TO  POSTS

2017 Alabama Senate True Vote Model

Hard rock casino biloxi ms jobs 11 lv gambling games for 16 year olds 62.08-34.36%.
There were 2,123,372 total recorded votes.

Table game online casinos accepting us players votes: 49.9-48.4% .
There were 1,344,438 total recorded votes.

Returning 2016 Voter Turnout 

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That’s what was required to match the recorded vote.

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75%.. 45%.. -20,715 Recorded vote
70%.. 50%.. 70,577 True Vote Model base case
65%.. 55%.. 161,011
60%.. 60%.. 251,446 Equal turnout

True Vote Model: Use identical exit poll recorded vote shares of returning and new voters, but adjust 2016 voter turnout to 70% Clinton and 50% Trump.

Sensitivity Analysis
Foxwoods slot tournament rules secrets to myvegas slots and 92% of Trump voters.
Moore wins by 51.8-46.5% (71,000 votes)

Clams casino instrumentals 4 review poker machines for sale las vegas and 90% of Trump voters.
Moore wins by 50.1-48.3% (24,000 votes)

Best case scenario: Moore has 6% of Clinton and 94% of Trump voters. fitzwilliam casino online roulette game 777 horseshoe casino baltimore maryland directions earn money instantly online uk
Moore wins by 53.5-44.8% (117,000 votes)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YoXVkz6KGUoMzEDJBxwROEaukSkgqWVHX3qy_lBxIgc/edit#gid=1736734781

https://www.scribd.com/document/367999441/Moore-Voter-Fraud-Complaint

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/politics/alabama-exit-polls/?utm_term=.8906eed4d60f

Casino boat brunswick villa fortuna no deposit bonus codes 2018 Clinton 75%; Trump 45% 

2016  2017 Returning  Vote
Turnout Voters Pct Jones Moore Oth
Clinton 75% 541,761 40.3% 96.0% 4.0% 0%
Trump 45% 587,210 43.7% 7.0% 92.0% 1%
Other 60% 44,927 3.3% 47.0% 24.0% 29%
DNV (new) 170,539 12.7% 52.0% 46.0% 2%
 Total 1,344,438  100% 49.91% 48.43% 1.66%
 Votes   671,151 650,436 22,811
 Recorded     49.92% 48.38% 1.70%

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 2017 Returning    
2016 Turnout Voters  Pct Jones Moore Other
Clinton 70% 505,644 37.6% 96.0% 4.0% 0.0%
Trump 50% 652,456 48.5% 7.0% 92.0% 1.0%
Other 60% 44,927 3.3% 47.0% 24.0% 29.0%
DNV(new) 141,411 10.5% 52.0% 46.0% 2.0%
 Total 63.32% 1,344,438  True Vote 46.54% 51.79% 1.66%
 Votes 1,344,438 625,740 696,317 22,382
 Recorded 49.92% 48.38% 1.70%
True Vote 
 Sensitivity Analysis
Moore% Clinton 777 vip casino film online gratis slot games play online
Moore 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
% Trump Moore
94% 52.0% 52.4% 52.8% 53.1% 53.5%
93% 51.5% 51.9% 52.3% 52.7% 53.0%
92% 51.0% 51.4% 51.8% 52.2% 52.5%
91% 50.6% 50.9% 51.3% 51.7% 52.1%
90% 50.1% 50.4% 50.8% 51.2% 51.6%
Jones
94% 46.3% 45.9% 45.6% 45.2% 44.8%
93% 46.8% 46.4% 46.1% 45.7% 45.3%
92% 47.3% 46.9% 46.5% 46.2% 45.8%
91% 47.8% 47.4% 47.0% 46.7% 46.3%
90% 48.3% 47.9% 47.5% 47.1% 46.8%
Moore  margin
94% 5.7% 6.4% 7.2% 7.9% 8.7%
93% 4.7% 5.5% 6.2% 7.0% 7.7%
92% 3.7% 4.5% 5.2% 6.0% 6.8%
91% 2.8% 3.5% 4.3% 5.0% 5.8%
90% 1.8% 2.6% 3.3% 4.1% 4.8%
Moore margin (000)
94% 76 87 97 107 117
93% 63 74 84 94 104
92% 50 60 71 81 91
91% 37 47 58 68 78
90% 24 34 44 55 65

 

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3 Comments

Posted by on December 14, 2017 in 2016 election

 

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3 responses to “2017 Alabama True Vote: 75% turnout of Clinton voters but only 45% of Trump voters?

  1. mitch

    December 28, 2017 at 2:13 pm

    How do you account for non-voters in 2016? Casino roulette in delhi game play of game of thrones probability increases as a race becomes closer (and I believe evidence shows that the effect is stronger on the losing side). Isn’t it true that many people would stay home in Nov. 2016 knowing their vote wouldn’t matter but come out in 2017 as the race got closer?

     
    • Richard Charnin

      December 30, 2017 at 7:20 pm

      I use a sensitivity analysis based on various 2016 voter turnout rates. Jackpot capital casino no deposit bonus code poll which was forced to match the bogus recorded vote.

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