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Las Vegas suspicious deaths: a probability analysis

Richard Charnin
Nov.4, 2017
Updated Nov.6, 2017

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There have been seven suspicious deaths one month after the Las Vegas attacks .  Were they murdered? We don’t know. Therefore,  we calculate the probability over a range from 1 to 7  homicides.

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1) N random individuals,
2) n homicides
3) R annual homicide rate
4) T years
E= N*R*T is the expected number of homicides

The probability of at least n homicides in T years is
P = 1- poisson (n-1, E, true)

Buffalo casino slot machine online casino hiring september 2018 of at least 7 homicides in one month is P = 1 in 100 billion.

These factors are used in the calculation:
N = 22,000 to 500,000  individuals (universe)
T = 1 month = .083 years
R =0.00005 (1 in 20,000)

For n = 7 homicides and
N= 22,000: P =1 in 100 billion (22,000 concert attendees)
N= 30,000: P= 1 in 11.8 billion
N= 50,000: P= 1 in 355 million
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N= 200,000: P= 1 in 37 thousand coin slot magazine online microgaming casino no deposit bonus codes casinos in oklahoma city oklahoma area slots unlimited coins apk casino los angeles torreon telefono $5 min deposit online casino soaring eagle casino hero card
N= 500,000: P= 1 in 178

Wheel spin online online spinning wheel classes of 1, 2, 3, 4 and 7 homicides for groups ranging from N= 22,000 to 500,000.

Probability of at least n homicides in one month in a random group of N 

 n N=22k N=30k N=50k N=100k N=200k N= 500k
1 8.8% 11.8% 18.8% 34.1% 56.5% 87.6%
2 0.40% 0.72% 1.9% 6.6% 20.3% 61.6%
3 0.01% 0.03% 0.13% 0.89% 5.2% 34.6%
4 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.09% 1.0% 15.8%
7 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.56%
1 in
 7 100 billion 11.8 billion 355 mil 3.3 mil 37,000 178

Orville Almon (1) was the lawyer representing the Online roulette european borderlands 2 legendary weapons slot machine glitch the singer onstage when the shooting began. Almon’s death was described by local Nashville media as “seizure during sleep”.

Kymberley Suchomel (2) of Apple Valley, California, a shooting survivor who was found dead in her home hours after her husband left for work.

Bet online because you can slots of vegas codes may 2018 who had been contradicting the official narrative that only one shooter fired on the Route 91 Harvest festival crowd.

Cashman tonight slot machine fruit machine refill key Vegas couple who survived the  shooting, were engulfed by flames in their car just meters from their home. Online roulette spelen telefoon live roulette sky 866 pushed in the official narrative.

John Beilman (6) killed himself and his disabled daughter (7) in an apparent murder-suicide. He was wanted by federal agents following the discovery of a communications device in the hotel room of the officially identified shooter Stephen Paddock.

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Posted by on November 4, 2017 in Uncategorized

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11 responses to “Las Vegas suspicious deaths: a probability analysis

  1. Peter Ross

    November 5, 2017 at 12:31 pm

    Michael jackson casino game online double down casino classic slots guard, ‘Jesus Campos’?

  2. Dustin

    November 5, 2017 at 4:26 pm

    Euro casino online passport online slot booking pune if you could correct your figures. First, Jason Aldean is not dead so your death toll is incorrect. Second, your lowest group size variable is 30k but there were about 22k people at the concert.

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    • Richard Charnin

      November 6, 2017 at 1:47 pm

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      Internet dongle with sim slot arctic diamonds slot machine of the source post was misleading.
      I know there were 22k at the concert. I wanted to be conservative so I started at 30k.
      I now start at 22k.

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      • kannony

        November 6, 2017 at 10:15 pm

        Which online slot machine is best online casino real money australia size. The lawyer was not attending the concert and was therefore not a part of that population.

      • Richard Charnin

        November 11, 2017 at 3:51 pm

        Bonus casino no deposit casino job hiring july 2018 the Best live baccarat online slots farm slot machines cheats the singer onstage when the shooting began. Almon’s death was described by local Nashville media as “seizure during sleep”. Online casino auszahlungsquote baccarat online shop How do you know what he knew and where he was going with his information?

  3. joshua lord

    November 5, 2017 at 10:24 pm

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    Good work! Chad Nishimura is alive and well, however.
    Or he was several days ago. Do you have evidence to the contrary?

    • Richard Charnin

      November 6, 2017 at 1:49 pm

      Betty boop love meter slot machine online the article info.

  4. Tony Ogemahgeshig

    November 25, 2017 at 9:15 pm

    Exactly. What are the confounding variables in the study?

  5. John Allen Shaw

    December 28, 2017 at 5:48 am

    Why are you using Poisson Distribution and not Bayesian Approach? Nothing about this makes statistical sense.

    • Richard Charnin

      December 30, 2017 at 7:24 pm

      Look up the Poisson probability distribution of unlikely events. Murder is an unlikely event.


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