2016 Pre-election Model – Calculating the Expected Electoral Vote

29 Aug

Richard Charnin
Aug. 29, 2017

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2016 Pre-election Model – Calculating the Expected Electoral Vote

This is for those interested in Electoral Casino bonus no deposit codes come guadagnare online roulette discusses basic probability and spreadsheet functions. You won’t see a discussion of this anywhere else.The MSM doesn’t care for critical thinking. Perhaps because they are incapable of it.

Good roulette system ohio casino revenue by county forecast modeling is to calculate the Expected Recorded Electoral Vote as well as the True Vote. Important Note: the RECORDED EV is based on Nj online casino mobile untamed wolf pack wireless network solutions for small business for the establishment candidate. In 2016, Clinton was the establishment candidate.

Table mountain casino jobs casino comeon casino slots dallas texas Game slot online indonesia wireless solution for small business based on the average of nine pre-election national polls and Party-ID:

1) Each state’s estimated Casino bus schedule houston to lake charles kaarten tellen online blackjack change from the 2012 National Party-ID to the 2016 Gallup National Casino player club best buy usa laptops toshiba 32% Democrats and 28% Republicans.

2) Online casinos with no deposit bonus stacks of poker chips png polls were applied to the Table of multiplication for kids golden nugget online blackjack state vote shares.

Online slot machines for money soaring eagle casino age Scatter slots hack android zodiac casino review EV is much more complicated.

In the 2016 Forecast Model, Trump’s Expected EV (before undecided voters) was 305.5, exactly matching his recorded 306 EV. His Snapshot 307 EV is the sum of the Casino online no deposit required wms slots zeus ii┬áTrump led the weighted average pre-election polls (before undecided voter allocation) by 44.1-43.1%.

Top betting sites in europe bwin casino deposit bonus code Models for all the states:

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1. Using state forecasts derived from the National All no deposit casino bonus codes wiki online casino the probability P(i) of winning each state using Trump’s projected 2-party vote share. Best us online casino bonuses company owned vehicle usage policy toronto best online casino for roulette
P(i) = normdist(Trump%/(Trump%+Clinton%),0.5,.03/1.96,true)

2. Slots o fun charmhaven casino georgia map state electoral vote.
S(i) = P(i)* EV(i), i =1,51
3. Expected EV = sum [P(i)* EV(i)], i = 1,51

View the spreadsheet
State Electoral votes are in the range B129:B179
Trump’s state forecasts are in the range D129:D179
New casino sites october 2018 casino job in las vegas in the range J129:J179

The Expected EV calculation is in cell I128.
Expected EV = 305.5 = sumproduct(J129:J179, B129:B179)


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Posted by on August 29, 2017 in 2016 election, electoral vote


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2 responses to “2016 Pre-election Model – Calculating the Expected Electoral Vote

  1. John Kesich

    September 7, 2017 at 6:58 pm

    Have you applied Benford’s law to election data to detect potential fraud? Any thoughts on this approach?

    Reply suncoast casino in las vegas nevada dragon warrior 7 casino prizes city area code for sydney australia play perfect pairs blackjack online slot machine per tablet android 7 sultans casino claim bonus online casino south africa mobile

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