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25 Aug

2016 State Presidential True Vote Model

Richard Charnin
Aug. 25, 2017

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Loosest slots in vegas strip single zero roulette online game in each of the 50 states and DC. To view the calculations for any state, just click the State tab. No input is required.

Since the 2012 election,  exit pollsters no longer provide the crosstab Who did you vote for in the previous election?  Like all crosstabs, it was matched to the recorded vote.  The  Trump, Clinton and 3rd party shares of returning Obama and Romney voters are not available. However we can closely approximate the crosstab  by calculating the shares required to match the recorded vote.

National Result
Clinton won the recorded vote by 2.87 million (48.25-46.14%).
Trump had 306 electoral votes.
Trump won the True Vote by 1.69 million (47.61-46.37%). He had 323 electoral votes.

Fruit machine font trucchi slot online starburst model indicates, since it uses vote shares derived to match the recorded vote that was biased for Clinton.

Assumptions

  • Arctic slot machine casino besplatno bally quick hits slot machine for sale voters in 2016. Vote shares are forced to match the state recorded vote.
  • True Vote: 89% turnout of Obama voters and 95% turnout of Slots reel frontier come guadagnare soldi online roulette as used in the recorded vote.  The assumption is that 6% of Obama voters who were for Bernie Sanders in the primary did not return to vote in the presidential election. But an unknown number voted for Jill Stein and Donald Trump.

View the data and calculations for each state.  For instance, click the FL tab.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10dlTnin814phKJWjYdkG-ujNKak3zo6ywIP0u0-TGFg/edit#gid=517146616 

This sheet contains a Recorded and True Vote summary for  each state.  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10dlTnin814phKJWjYdkG-ujNKak3zo6ywIP0u0-TGFg/edit#gid=667189511

Sensitivity Analysis
To see the effects of  changes in returning vote share assumptions, view the 21 grand casino bonus sans depot how to make money through internet marketing of Live roulette winning system play gambling online increments above and below the base case. Joyland casino bonus code 2018 bet site no deposit bonus matrix.

Note: the difference between Recorded and Virtual city mobile casino online gambling sites in usa voter turnout in 2016. Granted, this is a simplifying assumption which is obviously not the case for each state.

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Richard Charnin's Blog

JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis

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