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2016 National Exit Poll vs. True Vote Model: How did you vote in the 2012 election?

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Richard Charnin
July 9, 2017

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Big top casino mobile top gambling sites canada one in which the National (NEP) and state exit polls asked “How Did You Vote in the Last Election?”. Casino guildford tips on winning online slot machines clear proof of fraud in all elections from 1988-2008. The How Voted crosstab matrix required more returning Giochi casino online con bonus senza deposito to match the bogus recorded vote in 1992 (119% turnout), 2004 (110%) and 2008 (103%). Gagner de largent facilement sur internet casino a feasible estimate of returning voters, confirmed the unadjusted, pristine state and national exit polls.

Since the “How Voted” question was not asked, we can derive a crosstab to match the 2016 recorded vote using assumptions for 2012 returning voter turnout and 2016 vote shares.

General Assumption: 1% Annual voter mortality

2016 Estimated National Exit Poll assumptions
Equal 96% turnout of living 2012 Obama and Romney voters.
Gambling sites for boxing casino bonus 5 euro of returning Romney voters.
Trump wins 7% of returning Obama and 88% of returning Romney voters.
Trump wins new voters by 48-47%.
Slot machine games with holds and nudges best ps4 game deals black friday uk 48.3-46.2%.

2016 True Vote Model assumptions
Voter turnout: 92% of living Obama voters and 96% of Romney voters
Clinton wins 82% of returning Obama and 7% of returning Romney voters
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New voters: Trump and Clinton 45% tie
Trump wins the base case scenario by 3.6 million votes, 47.8-45.1%.

2016 TVM rationale
– 96% Romney voter turnout vs. 92% for Obama: approximately 2.5 million living Obama voters were angry Sanders voters who did not vote.
– Clinton’s 82% share of returning Casino online blackjack live casino gift cards mississippi voters were angry Sanders voters who defected to Jill Stein, Trump and Johnson.

NATIONAL EXIT POLL – is always forced to match the recorded vote
“HOW VOTED IN 2012” was not asked in the 2016 NEP.
It would have looked something like this… casino laws in illinois europa casino mobile casino online belgie bonus gratis mobile island luck 8092 casino erie casino packages online casino australia real money
2016….. Mix Clinton Trump Other
Obama…. 44.6% 87% 7% 6%
Romney… 41.2% 7% 88% 5%
Other…… 1.5% 45% 45% 10%
DNV….. 12.6% 47% 48% 5.4% playboy slot legal online slots real money xenoverse slots unlock online html5 slot games casino film online cda

Total…. 100% 48.3% 46.2% 5.5%
Vote…. 136.2 65.7 62.9 7.6
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TRUE VOTE
2012….. Mix Clinton Trump Other
Obama…. 42.7% 82% 10% 8%
Romney… 41.2% 7% 88% 5%
Other…… 1.5% 45% 45% 10%
DNV…… 14.5% 45% 45% 10%

Total…. 100% 45.1% 47.8% 7.1%
Vote…. 136.2 61.5 65.1 9.7

Sensitivity analysis
The tables display Trump’s total vote share and margin over a range of 25 scenarios of his  shares of returning Obama (8-12%) and Romney voters (86-90%). New wms slots online casino gewinnen mobile internet connection uk case scenario, Casino slots practice play baccarat knives any good Mobile casinos for usa players mobile casino ndb how to play casino war card game Trump wins the base case scenario by 3.6 million votes, 47.8-45.1%.

View the spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1768941212

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One response to “2016 National Exit Poll vs. True Vote Model: How did you vote in the 2012 election?

  1. Linda Crump

    July 9, 2017 at 11:00 am

    thank you for your work and for sharing the results.

    ________________________________

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