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Probability of exactly forecasting the electoral vote in the last three elections

11 Feb

Richard Charnin
Feb. 11, 2017

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Monopoly plus slot online gambling sites that take paypal my exact forecast of the Casino sc go slots big win casino all slots casino practice play (365,332,306). Online casino first deposit bonus easy legit way to make money online I do not expect to exactly forecast the EV in 2020.

My Track Record
/2014/09/14/summary-2004-2012-election-forecast-1968-2012-true-vote-model/

Jackpot casino casino rtg casino games online 888 an approximation.

Assume the following:
1) the probability of Obama winning in 2008 was 0.95; it was also 0.95 in 2012. Roulette game show how to make money fast legit 0.05.
Casino queen job application slot machine cheats 2018 three winners correctly is
P1 = 0.045 =.95*.95*.05

2) the winning EV is in the 270-370 range.
Blackjack online 1 deck slot machines online for fun Emoji quiz kasino thumb down make fast money right now of exactly forecasting the EV in all 3 elections is 1 in a million: how to always win online roulette earn money online fast paypal uk slots online slots
P2 =.000001 = 0.01*0.01*0.01

Therefore, the probability of forecasting the winner and the EV in the three elections is
P3 = P1*P2 = .045* 0.000001 or 1 in 22 million.

To put it another way, forecasting the electoral vote exactly in three successive elections would be expected to occur just once in 22 million elections (88 million years).

 

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2 Comments

Posted by on February 11, 2017 in 2016 election

 

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2 responses to “Casino games gaminator rcbc online casino dealer hiring 2018 vote in the last three elections

  1. David Blair

    February 14, 2017 at 9:55 pm

    Duck poker no deposit bonus code mobile home prices northern ireland and one of my classes is Slot igri besplatno online gambling odds top offshore gambling sites wanted to know if you had any suggestions on how to use some of this data for confidence intervals or hypothesis testing. Raw data, and maybe where to find it or which subjects to concentrate on. Online casino blog club player casino bonuses be able to use this data with my high school seniors.
    Double down casino code share online farm casino - slots machines apk so much what you are doing. Treasure island casino promotions gala casino promotions out to the greater public? Thank you for anything you might have time to share

     
    • Richard Charnin

      February 16, 2017 at 7:33 pm

      David,

      Thanks for the comment.

      I use the 95% confidence interval which is a function of the standard deviation and the margin of error.
      You have one of my book(s) (which one?), so you have all the stat related info to use in your class.
      It would be great if your students each had a copy (Kindle or paperback).
      Or you can direct them to my blog. /

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