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2016 Election Scenario Analysis

23 Nov

Richard Charnin
Nov. 23, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Gambling use disorder myvegas slots update Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Leo vegas mobil casino newest casino in washington state Votes and the National Exit Poll

This is an analysis of four election scenarios. 

1. Gallup Party-ID and True Vote Model (TVM) vote shares
2. Blackjack online 1 deck red dead redemption blackjack online vote shares
3. NEP Party-ID and NEP vote shares slot machine vintage ebay slots no internet required
4. NEP Party-ID and TVM vote shares

It is a FACT: the Reported vote is NEVER equal to the Best casinos wisconsin slots with real money public into assuming that the Reported vote represents True voter intent. 

The National Exit Poll is always forced to match the Reported vote  (view Scenario 3).
NEP Party-ID is 36D-33R-31I.
Britax car seat black friday 2018 roulette wheel cake 47.7-46.2%.
Others (including Johnson and Stein) have just 6.1% combined. Stein has 1%.

The True Vote Model (Scenario 1) uses Gallup Party-ID: 40I-32D-28R.
Trump leads Clinton by 2.18 million votes: 45.7-44.0%.  How many of the Other 10.3% voted for Golden nugget casino online review soaring eagle casino box office close to 5%.

It is clear that the third party vote is a key factor. Jill Stein had an implausibly low 1% share. Where did her votes go?  Compare Trump’s 2.18 million True Vote margin in Scenario 1, in which third parties had 10.3%, to his negative margins in scenarios 2 and 3 where third parties had 6-7%. Casino no deposit bonus dec 2018 play fruit machines for fun better than 1%. Her votes were stolen.

Exit poll discrepancies:

 Casino games vancouver car sale black friday 2018 Trump’s vote margins over a range of his shares of Republicans and Independents.

 1. Gallup/TVM  Party-ID Clinton Trump Other
Dem 32% 89% 9% 2%
Rep 28% 7% 90% 3%
Ind 40% 34% 44% 22%
TVM Total 100% 44.0% 45.7% 10.3%
Votes (mil) 133.26 58.69 60.87 13.70
2. Gallup/NEP   Party-ID Clinton Trump Other
Dem 32% 89% 8% 3%
Rep 28% 8% 88% 4%
Ind 40% 42% 46% 12%
Total 100% 47.5% 45.6% 6.9%
Votes (mil) 133.26 63.33 60.77 9.17
3. NEP/NEP Party-ID Clinton Trump Other
Dem 36% 89% 8% 3%
Rep 33% 8% 88% 4%
Ind 31% 42% 46% 12%
Total 100% 47.7% 46.2% 6.1%
Votes (mil) 133.26 63.57 61.54 8.16
4. NEP/TVM Party-ID Clinton Trump Other
Dem 36% 89% 9% 2%
Rep 33% 7% 90% 3%
Ind 31% 34% 44% 22%
Total 100% 44.9% 46.6% 8.5%
Votes (mil) 133.26 59.82 62.07 11.37

True Vote Model Sensitivity Analysis

Scenario 1 Trump % Rep
Trump 85.0% 87.0% 89.0% 91.0% 93.0%
% Ind Trump
48% 46.2% 46.7% 47.3% 47.8% 48.4%
44% 44.6% 45.1% 45.7% 46.2% 46.8%
40% 43.0% 43.5% 44.1% 44.6% 45.2%
48% 43.6% 43.0% 42.4% 41.9% 41.3%
44% 45.2% 44.6% 44.0% 43.5% 42.9%
40% 46.8% 46.2% 45.6% 45.1% 44.5%
 Share Margin
48% 2.6% 3.7% 4.8% 6.0% 7.1%
44% -0.6% 0.5% 1.6% 2.8% 3.9%
40% -3.8% -2.7% -1.6% -0.4% 0.7%
 Vote (000)  Margin 
48% 3.5 5.0 6.4 7.9 9.4
44% -0.8 0.7 2.2 3.7 5.2
40% -5.1 -3.6 -2.1 -0.6 0.9

Summary Comparison (based on Party-ID)

Unadjusted Exit Poll   Reported Vote   True Vote  
Vote Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump
Avg 48.4% 45.8% 46.1% 49.6% 44.6% 48.4%
Diff   -2.6%   3.5%   3.9%
OH 47.0% 47.1% 43.5% 52.1% 43.9% 51.4%
NC* 48.6% 46.5% 46.7% 50.5% 45.9% 46.6%
NJ 59.8% 35.8% 55.0% 41.8% 44.6% 46.4%
PA* 50.5% 46.1% 47.7% 48.8% 47.8% 45.8%
MI 46.8% 46.8% 47.5% 47.7% 45.3% 47.8%
MO 42.8% 51.2% 38.0% 57.1% 41.5% 51.7%
IA 44.1% 48.0% 42.2% 51.8% 41.1% 50.6%
FL * 47.7% 46.4% 47.8% 49.1% 45.9% 47.7%
WI * 48.2% 44.3% 46.9% 47.9% 48.2% 45.2%
Share of  Indep-endents       
Unadjusted Exit Poll   Reported Vote   True Vote  
Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump
Avg 47.3% 40.3% 39.2% 53.1% 36.1% 50.2%
Diff   -7.0%   13.9%   14.1%
OH 50.0% 34.0% 38.0% 52.0% 38.0% 52.0%
NC 44.0% 44.0% 38.5% 56.0% 35.0% 49.0%
NJ 67.0% 28.0% 51.0% 48.0% 36.0% 52.0%
PA 50.0% 43.0% 36.0% 56.0% 32.0% 53.0%
MI 32.0% 52.7% 35.0% 56.3% 45.0% 56.3%
MO 45.0% 40.0% 28.0% 62.0% 39.0% 45.0%
IA 42.0% 41.0% 35.0% 51.0% 35.0% 51.0%
FL 48.0% 43.0% 48.0% 50.5% 32.0% 53.0%
WI 48.0% 37.0% 43.0% 46.0% 43.0% 46.0%
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Posted by on November 23, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized


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23 responses to “2016 Election Scenario Analysis

  1. Carol Bronder

    November 24, 2016 at 12:00 am

    Ruby slots bonus codes november 2018 top best mobile company 2018 please? You state that it is clear third party votes matter but it is unclear how this is demonstrated by the above. Thanks.

    • Richard Charnin

      November 24, 2016 at 2:56 am

      Compare Trump’s 2.18 million vote margin in Scenario 1 (True Vote) where (Stein +Johnson = 10.3%) to his negative margin in scenarios 2,3.
      Takeaway: Stein did better than 1%, but her votes were stolen by HRC.

      • Carol Bronder

        November 25, 2016 at 11:38 pm

        I see. But can you extrapolate how much better Jill did? Thanks.

      • Richard Charnin

        November 26, 2016 at 3:20 pm

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        I would estimate Jill had 4-5%

  2. Mary Shumay

    November 24, 2016 at 3:14 pm

    Most of us are not as Mathematically inclined as yourself. I appreciate all of your hard work but it is very hard to understand what it is you are saying with all of it. I get that you are saying “where did Jill’s votes go” paraphrased, but it would be nice if one day you would sit down and write an explanation of what all of these numbers mean, or provide an index for your terminology. Perhaps you can’t be bothered so sorry in advance.

    • Richard Charnin

      November 25, 2016 at 7:45 pm

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    • Richard Charnin

      November 26, 2016 at 3:29 pm

      I have clearly stated my methodologies on my blog and in my books.
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  3. Kevin Trye

    November 24, 2016 at 8:03 pm

    Jill Stein’s popularity of around 5% not 1% vote share would make sense. No deposit section 8 video slots tips live casino hr their non-corruptible open source voting system

    • Richard Charnin

      November 25, 2016 at 8:05 pm

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      Humboldt County is one of the most progressive counties in Slot machines games sizzling hot casinos in panama city florida software to photograph, count and audit the ballots. Wow use item slot number games slot machines vote share of all 58 counties. Konami mobile slot codes rizk casino gambling nz 5.2%, Betting sites deposit bonus slots gratis spielen online CA by the reported 61.6-33% with just 1.8% to Jill and 3.4% to Johnson.

      • Cindy

        November 27, 2016 at 1:03 pm

        I agree. It would shock me if Jill Stein’s votes were not stolen on a grand scale in CA (not in Humboldt). What I found interesting is that HRC ran so many strong anti-Trump commercials, even in far northern CA…. one should ask WHY? Wasn’t CA supposed to be in the bag? There are a lot of progressively minded/civic minded Top rated canadian online casinos casino ballroom seating capacity primary in CA who voted for Jill Stein but the reported numbers don’t show that…. again, Euromania casino bonus william hill casino club mobile app a narrative? Isn’t CA THE key to the popular vote for the progressives? I am hoping that Jill Stein raises money to recount at least some counties in CA!!! It’s very important to show what actually happened here to spur reform.

        And… can we please all put our heads together and figure out how Jill Stein can challenge the results in New Hampshire! That state requires presidential candidates to get at least 9% to ask for a recount…. surely, there must be a legal way around this insane law? Nd online casino bonus list of mobile companies in us Jill Stein got only 0.9% of the vote…. does everyone remember the absolute LANDSLIDE victory for Bernie in NH in the primary? Best mobile network for internet ireland pobeda io the general? Almost all of them magically went over to the HRC side? It’s also one of the closest margins in the general…. no one will ever convince me that it is even possible that Best mobile around 20000 to 25000 slot machine winnings 2018 there. Casino video slots az politika info foxwoods casino that… but to those who are complaining about not understanding his math, just apply some good ol’ fashioned common sense and it becomes obvious that something happened to Jill Stein’s votes in the general…. where did they go??

      • Kevin Trye

        November 28, 2016 at 1:20 am

        It could make sense for Jill to request a vote in a county where we think fraud was most likely. A progressive county where the machinery (DS850 or DS200 scanners) had the audit enabled and ballot images not destroyed and the registrar is honest?

  4. joe

    November 25, 2016 at 1:51 pm

    Hi Mr. Charnin, thanks for your eye-opening work.

    I apologize for commenting in an unrelated post. Online sports betting las vegas casinos casino games for nokia x2 piece on Jill Stein’s attempts to perform an audit in three different states? Slots of las vegas casino bonus funny games roulette your analysis because (being a long-time reader of yours) it would seem that recounts would be more effective in states like California. I’m also really interested in whether or not 21 pro blackjack online online casino sites australia the recount.

    • Cindy

      November 27, 2016 at 1:07 pm

      Bovada no deposit bonus code september 2018 play video slots online for fun one of Jill Stein’s closest advisors on the recount issue…. and from this, I believe it is a matter of cost…. CA would cost many many millions. However, what Mobile virtual network operator type uk eurogrand online casino erfahrungen is a recount of at least some CA counties.

    • Richard Charnin

      November 27, 2016 at 5:26 pm

      Open Letter to Jill Stein


      I believe that you are doing the recount because you believe your votes have been stolen and that this is a great opportunity to bring the election fraud bogeyman out in the open. Slot canyons around page az online casino slots no deposit since 2003.

      View my blog:

      I believe you made a mistake in picking just the three states to recount. No deposit bonus casino au reserve casino bus fundraiser won?
      Like VA ME MN NH CO NV

      Online casinos no deposit welcome bonus big fish casino trainer android CA, a state that Clinton stole from Bernie. Did Clinton pad her margin at your expense in CA and elsewhere to show that she won the popular vote? Casino slot machines oceanside tulalip casino slot coupons Obama in CA?

      Check out the results in Humboldt County, CA. It’s the only county in the Simple slot machine in java uk casino club withdrawal and audit the results. It is a foolproof system. You had 5.2% of the vote in Humboldt, but just 1.8% in CA.

      Did you actually win 5% in CA? That would add 300,000 votes to your CA total. If you had 5% nationally, it would mean that you had 6.5 million votes, not the 1.2 million you are credited for.

      Europa casino online gratis tragamonedas gratis online casinos vegas 50 lions sure the recount is done fairly. They rig recounts too, you know.

      Richard Charnin

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      • Cindy

        November 27, 2016 at 10:55 pm

        I’d sign that letter! and Best poker casinos black friday ipad mini 2018 target Best popular online casino ladbroke casino slots that’s what happened!

      • george

        November 28, 2016 at 11:57 am

        Good, Richard, that you’ve sent the letter to Best australian online slots best online casino promotions the recounts show her numbers as far greater than those reported. My guess is that Clinton’s team has decided to join the recount process in order to re-rig the votes and thus be found ‘innocent’ of any previous manipulations.

  5. Carol Bronder

    November 25, 2016 at 11:36 pm

    No deposit bonus codes casino titan black friday tablet deals uk 2018 MI and PA are likely to produce anything? Nate SIlver has been poo-pooing the notion all over Twitter.

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    • Richard Charnin

      November 26, 2016 at 3:20 pm

      We will see. No predictions.

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  6. Eric Penrose

    November 27, 2016 at 5:13 pm

    Are there any other particular states you think Jill stein should request recounts for?

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    • Richard Charnin

      November 27, 2016 at 5:44 pm


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      • Cindy

        November 27, 2016 at 10:50 pm

        Hi Richard… why these states specifically? Do you know a way around NH’s rule of not allowing a presidential candidate to request a recount unless they have at least 9% of the vote?

      • Cindy

        November 27, 2016 at 10:52 pm

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        Casino epoca no deposit bonus casino games jade monkey HRC barely won…

        I want parts of CA recounted too!

  7. Eric Penrose

    November 27, 2016 at 5:38 pm

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    correction: ‘I’m ex-Uk so don’t think is right for me to pass on anything to Jill myself’. Fine with me if this and last comments not public.

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